Search found 924 matches

by warner25
Fri Mar 15, 2024 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

UrbaneAnuran wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2024 3:55 pm 1a. Officers might reasonably add 4 years to generic life expectancy tables. Enlisted and officers’ spouses should use generic life expectancy.
I'm curious about this. Something about officers, on average, being healthier than the general population?
by warner25
Fri Mar 15, 2024 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
Replies: 180
Views: 15193

Re: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle

:twisted: - Phone/internet $4k (including phone/router purchase)... - Gas $5k... - Restaurants/take out $12k... That's an impressive tight budget for a family of 6 in CA. Um, these three items stood out to me as being exceptionally high. Is that multiple iPhone purchases every year? How many miles of driving is that? Or does "gas" include natural gas for appliances? "DW cooks most meals so [you] only dine out 1-2 time every week," but restaurants are still $1,000/month? Not JarjarM. But $4K for phone service + phone purchases doesn't seem excessive if there are 6 lines. Of course some of the kids may be too young to have one. $5k of gas at $5/gallon is 1000 gallons. At an average of 30mpg that's 30,000 miles a year. 15,...
by warner25
Fri Mar 15, 2024 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
Replies: 180
Views: 15193

Re: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle

madbrain wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2024 3:29 pm
jarjarM wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2024 3:15 pm - Phone/internet $4k (including phone/router purchase)...
- Gas $5k...
- Restaurants/take out $12k...
That's an impressive tight budget for a family of 6 in CA.
Um, these three items stood out to me as being exceptionally high. Is that multiple iPhone purchases every year? How many miles of driving is that? Or does "gas" include natural gas for appliances? "DW cooks most meals so [you] only dine out 1-2 time every week," but restaurants are still $1,000/month?
by warner25
Fri Mar 15, 2024 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
Replies: 180
Views: 15193

Re: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle

...I was rebutting the assertion that if we control our housing costs, in a VHCOL area, then the rest falls into place... I would clarify my assertion to be: one can only be so "frugal" in a place like coastal California because of where housing costs start, which doesn't seem like something that I can control. I think this agrees with your position more than it disagrees. This is in disagreement to those who've tried to define "frugal" as simply being sub-$60k/year. Purchasing a house here 30+ years ago, enabling someone to live on $60k/year now, doesn't make that person "frugal." Like you said, I'd just call that being lucky. If I'm driving a 16 year-old Prius, eating all my meals at home or packing leftover...
by warner25
Fri Mar 15, 2024 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

Thesaints wrote: Fri Mar 15, 2024 10:01 am I agree, but that’s not my point.
The chance for a 50yo man (military or not) to reach age 60 is 91.5%.
So, when at age 50 you look at the present value of a pension collected starting age 60, you have to discount the amount 10 years AND multiply it by 0.915. The amount collected at age 61 gets further discounted by an additional year and then multiplied by 0.902 (not all 60yo reach age 61), and so forth.
I misunderstood your original comment, but yeah, this is smart. Delay retirement to get a larger pension or SS payout and you might up getting a lot less or nothing at all (of course it's a bit more complicated than that, due to survivor benefits).
by warner25
Fri Mar 15, 2024 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
Replies: 180
Views: 15193

Re: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle

...As a renter also in coastal California, I must respectfully disagree. My out-of-pocket cost for California state income tax is higher than my rent... but then again, I rent a small studio apartment in a dodgy part of town. That's because rental costs can be controlled to large extent, via lifestyle choices. Taxes can not. And perversely, even though one's running-expenses are higher because one has a family, the taxes will be lower, than if one were (on the same income) single and without children... Admittedly, I'm exempt from the state income tax, so it's not something that I think about. Also with four kids, as you said, what we pay for housing would dominate what we pay in income tax anyway. We wouldn't even be allowed to rent a sma...
by warner25
Fri Mar 15, 2024 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
Replies: 180
Views: 15193

Re: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle

madbrain wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 8:02 pm Most California homeowners could not afford to buy their own home from their earned income...
madbrain wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 8:06 pm
avalpert1 wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 7:43 pm The median income in Santa Barbara is under $100k...
The median home price in Santa Barbara is $1.7M. People with the $100k median income could not afford to buy the median home...
This strikes me as true and fascinating. Of course it's not just coastal California; it seems to be true of many cities around the world now. I wonder how this ends, and if anything like this has happened before in history. I suppose that if property wealth just passes down to subsequent generations, maybe it doesn't end? Among the coastal California natives that I've met so far, inheriting their parents' property seems to be a key part of the plan.
by warner25
Fri Mar 15, 2024 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle
Replies: 180
Views: 15193

Re: 5M, probably enough to retire to a frugal lifestyle

Cost of living is almost entirely dependent on house costs which you can estimate via similar rents - and California near the coast is $50-75k as table stakes. You can get in lower if you’re 30 years in a house and have prop 13 lot taxes. I want to underscore this very succinct and on-target comment. As a renter who has moved between a number of low-cost and high-cost areas of the country, currently in coastal California, I see this clearly. The sum of our rent and utilities, for roughly equivalent 3BR houses in neighborhoods of equivalent quality, adjusted for inflation, has varied between $1,200/month and $4,500/month. Our total spending outside of rent and utilities, adjusted for inflation and family size, has varied very little. The de...
by warner25
Thu Mar 14, 2024 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

Either do 20 active or get out as fast as humanely possible and finish in the reserves that way Curious to understand your thinking on this point? 4 years active plus 16 reserve is a much smaller reserve retirement than 10 active plus 10 reserve. Even assuming both start at age 60. But 20 years in the reserve component in which you get yourself 4 years worth of qualifying active duty orders, is a much larger retirement than 4 years active plus 16 in the reserves. That’s the point ! Two careers that look exactly the same in terms of actual number of days on active duty pay radically different retirements. I think this optimizes the total retirement pay per duty day [1], right? Total retirement pay is dominated by how early it starts. So the...
by warner25
Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

Thesaints wrote: Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:21 am
sunrider6 wrote: Mon Feb 26, 2024 7:07 pm p.s. and yes, I'm aware that staying in vs. getting out has many more compnents to it than just money.
Such as staying alive ?
Well I'd argue that by the time one is looking at O-6 like the OP, the risk of death is pretty low. I think that balancing the demands of military service with family life, e.g. cross-country and overseas moves with older kids, gets harder over time, but the actual jobs start looking more like corporate office / political / academic work and less like flying 120 knots at treetop level and landing in the dust with zero illumination.
by warner25
Thu Mar 14, 2024 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where does your [investing] inspiration come from?
Replies: 31
Views: 2926

Re: Where does your inspiration come from?

... That teacher was a really bad teacher and so I guess it's comical in a way that he gets credit for that... Haha, I wonder if he was already FI and just coasting. ...For instance, if you saved $100 a month from age 20 to age 30, or whatever, how much money that would be at age 65 vs. if you start at age 40 and go to 65. A few curves showing the growth of savings with with a few simple assumptions... Similarly, when I was 19, I overheard an old man explaining this to someone else in a waiting room, and it really stuck with me. I went home thinking, "My gosh, I can't afford not to do this." Actually I misheard, or maybe the guy explained it badly by using an unrealistic rate of return (e.g. Dave Ramsey's infamous 12%) and nomina...
by warner25
Wed Mar 13, 2024 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

...Not only do I find it personally challenging & fulfilling, but it helps guide... Yes, thanks again for all that you do. Since we first encountered each other in 2009, I've learned a tremendous amount from you, and I've always been amazed at the exceptional care that you put into understanding and explaining things. Anyway, the whole system is more generous and has more options than I realized (e.g. one can even get a refund for service credits already bought?!) With that said... This situation is about more than money... Absolutely. And I see this both ways. The system is more generous than I realized for someone who transitions from active duty to civil service and the reserves, but it's also well earned (going back to everything t...
by warner25
Wed Mar 13, 2024 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laptop problem
Replies: 12
Views: 1014

Re: Laptop problem

I have an old HP laptop that does this intermittently too. It started when the machine was about five years old. In my case, it's clearly a hardware issue. I concluded this because it started happening when running Windows 10, and it still does it while running Fedora Linux. Sometimes closing the lid, waiting for it to go back to sleep, and re-opening the lid works. Sometimes it helps to shake it a little when doing so. Sometimes a hard reboot (holding down the power button for ~10 seconds) is necessary. It was a budget laptop in 2016, really not made to be repairable, so I haven't even tried, but maybe a new display cable or display would fix the issue. I just bought a new laptop and kept this old one around for my kids to occasionally do ...
by warner25
Wed Mar 13, 2024 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

...as well as continuing to pay OPM for the additional FERS military service credit deposits of your mobilizing Reservist active-duty orders (longer than 29 days) and still drill for more points toward a Reserve pension. I can't prove a negative, but I think the logic is that you're paying OPM for the credit-- not double dipping. Wow. Between this quote and your old Military Wallet blog post, I think I might understand what you're saying, but playing out Ryan's situation or mine as an example would really help. I'm an O-4 approaching 16 years of active service, waiting to hear about O-5. Let's say I get passed over twice for O-5 and I don't get offered (or choose not to take) "selective continuation" to 20 years as an O-4. Presum...
by warner25
Wed Mar 13, 2024 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

You can be a federal employee and a reserve member and qualify for both pensions. It isn't one or the other. Right. I just concluded that for my own situation, when I last considered all the options, this option - leaving active duty, drilling in the reserves, and starting fresh as a federal civilian towards a second pension - was less appealing than simply buying my active duty time under FERS and making a clean break from uniformed service. I figured that after 35 years of total service and savings, at age 57, I'd have more than enough with FERS and my portfolio while avoiding the difficult balancing act between civilian work, reserve duty, and family life in my 30s and 40s. To my understanding, buying active duty time under FERS vs. con...
by warner25
Tue Mar 12, 2024 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

warner25 wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 11:58 am
Parkinglotracer wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 10:59 am ...Sad.
Yes...
Parkinglotracer wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 6:48 pmState active duty does NOT appear to be a great deal in NY.

https://dmna.ny.gov/sad/
I can't get over how the acronym is literally SAD :(
by warner25
Tue Mar 12, 2024 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

...two ways the National Guard can be activated by the US Federal Government ... I think this excerpt has the critical verbiage and is consistent with what the MOAA page explains, and with what you experienced. The situation in Texas (due to deploying up to half of its Guard personnel for up to 12-month rotations) has been eye-opening for me and many others who didn't fully understand that there's a third and very different way for the Guard to be activated not by the federal government , and it can come with entirely different pay tables and benefits. The Wikipedia page for the Guard has a nice table comparing state active duty with Title 32 and Title 10 . My point about F-16 squadrons is that a governor would presumably have little need ...
by warner25
Tue Mar 12, 2024 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questio

Parkinglotracer wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 10:59 am ...Sad.
Yes. (Trying not to lead this discussion beyond what's permitted on this forum...) Many Army folks have argued that the Texas Army National Guard should just be federalized at this point to take control away from the governor. But that's not a Big Army decision to make. Civilian leadership appears intent on avoiding an escalation of an already nasty standoff between the federal government and the state of Texas at the border. Unfortunately, Guard members are caught in the middle of this political standoff with real financial consequences.

I'd imagine that Air National Guard F-16 squadrons don't get called up by state governors very often, right?
by warner25
Tue Mar 12, 2024 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questio

I’d add that if I could do it again, I would switch to the guard vice the reserves (navy). It’s just set up to be a much friendlier environment to part timers This might just be an Army problem again, but the potential for being used and abused at the pleasure of a state governor, effectively having another boss whose political motives might clash with the president's, makes me want to never go near the National Guard. I recommend reading about what it means to be on "state active duty" or "state call up" orders rather than Title 10 or Title 32, and the situation for Texas Army National Guardsmen under the ongoing Operation Lone Star. From MOAA : ...For those on state call up, you receive pay, benefits, and retirement c...
by warner25
Tue Mar 12, 2024 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

gunny2 wrote: Tue Mar 12, 2024 12:16 am I'd love it if you could point me to some examples of those...
This is the most recent one that I've seen mentioned (from viewtopic.php?p=7757900#p7757900):
Ron Ronnerson wrote: Sat Mar 09, 2024 1:41 pm...I’m a public-school teacher... expecting a $110k/year pension in another decade or so - enough to cover all our expenses.
by warner25
Tue Mar 12, 2024 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

gunny2 wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 11:43 pm...There is no better pension plan than the military, and second place isn't even close...
I don't know... I've heard of many state, county, and city pensions for police, firefighters, teachers, administrators, etc. that sound generous to the point of being unsustainable (and maybe they are). Like well over $100k which is retired flag officer territory.
by warner25
Mon Mar 11, 2024 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental (with a cat)
Replies: 37
Views: 3011

Re: Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental (with a cat)

That might work when you have the RV is in a campground but if you are driving through some area where it is 90+ degrees and you want to stop for a couple of hours in the middle of the day you may not be able to leave the AC on while you are out site seeing. This is a good point. We need to figure out what we'd like to see and where the campgrounds would be in relation. It was really a mistake to adopt the kitten just before a big move. Well, yeah... active duty military, so it's always right before a big move. We're actually getting three years and change in our current location, which is the longest that we've ever been in one place. At least this move isn't outside the continental US. You should hear the stories about people trying to g...
by warner25
Mon Mar 11, 2024 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

Most of you have seen this blog post before, but for newer readers: my advice is to not gut it out to 20. https://themilitarywallet.com/leave-active-duty-for-reserves/ I should've left active duty at 12 years of service when I didn't get the call for Executive Officer and reached my terminal rank. At that point I had no idea how the Reserves worked, let alone how the pension was calculated. Through a combination of ignorance, fear, and chronic fatigue... I stayed on active duty instead of seeking a much better quality of life. Today many military families still don't realize that when a Reserve/Guard member retires awaiting pay, the pension is calculated at the future pay tables (the ones in effect when they start their pension) and at a s...
by warner25
Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental (with a cat)
Replies: 37
Views: 3011

Re: Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental (with a cat)

boomer_techie wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:00 pm
warner25 wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:26 am [*] I could drive the RV with our two oldest kids and the cat being free to move around, use the litter box, etc. while my wife tails us in the minivan with our two younger kids (at least one of whom will be in a full carseat, which I think is problematic in an RV).
Don't be fooled by the "house" appearance of the RV interior. It is a moving vehicle and everybody should be secured with seatbelts. I wouldn't want kids to be free to move around in a moving RV.
I probably should have put a comma in there after "kids." I figured that the cat could move around, not them.
by warner25
Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Embracing Principles [during the dot-com bubble and tech surges?]
Replies: 43
Views: 3958

Re: Embracing Principles Amidst Bitcoin and Nvidia's Surge?

If you're married, imagine telling your spouse that you lost a large chunk of money due to playing around and making a mistake or a risky bet gone wrong. Imagine holding some relatively risky and volatile assets, and we have a sharp market event like we did in late 2008 or early 2020 with circuit breakers being tripped and proverbial "blood in the streets," so it's all over the mainstream news and your spouse's social media feeds. The S&P 500 index is down 30%, but your chosen assets are down 70%. You're feeling ok about staying the course, believing that you still have a sound strategy, but all this excitement gets your spouse's attention who's now feeling panicked and suggesting that you sell everything. They're upset that a...
by warner25
Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental (with a cat)
Replies: 37
Views: 3011

Re: Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental (with a cat)

the_wiki wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:30 pm Don’t underestimate gas costs. 5-10mpg adds up fast.
Fair point. That's another $1-2k.
cchrissyy wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 5:44 pm i don't know how the logistics work but is it possible to leave the cat with a local friend/petsitter, who then ships it to you after you are settled in the new home?
It's possible. We'd miss each other, so it would be stressful in that way. Maybe the cat would miss us less than we think.
by warner25
Mon Mar 11, 2024 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental (with a cat)
Replies: 37
Views: 3011

Re: Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental (with a cat)

If you have to get two cars you are already towing one? Or are you thinking "RV" as in "travel trailer" for one? Cost of shipping a vehicle can be found and estimated, and some movers can add it on. But it may be simpler to sell and rebuy depending on how the travel goes. We'll just ship my smaller car. I've shipped it overseas and back a couple of times before. I have no interest in replacing the car, and I figure that the transaction costs of selling and buying wouldn't be much less than the cost of shipping it anyway. If every time you got in your car, you were taken and prodded with needles, you'd probably not like it either. That's the suggestion to acclimate to "good" car trips. Has the cat gone for real...
by warner25
Mon Mar 11, 2024 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

Once you think about that buy down you realize the utter insanity of how the pension works. It treats two people doing exactly the same thing very differently... The worst way to do it is a lot of active duty years, followed by a transfer to the reserve component and a reserve retirement Yeah, every time I've looked at moving from active duty to a reserve component to finish 20 years of service, I came away thinking "what a terrible deal!" I concluded that becoming a federal civilian and buying the years of active duty service under FERS would be better in terms of both money and lifestyle. - 40 bombing missions in Desert Storm (160,000 lbs of bombs dropped) - Experience dodging Soviet made and Iraqi operated SA-3 / ZSU-23 SAMS &...
by warner25
Mon Mar 11, 2024 3:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Annual expense to live upper middle class lifestyle in suburban Midwest
Replies: 20
Views: 2378

Re: Expense to live upper middle class lifestyle in suburban Midwest

- new cars every 7 to 10 years or so. Middle trim Honda CRV or Toyota Rav 4. - one annual one week vacation (think theme parks or Florida beach) with flight - two or three extended weekend vacations (driving distance) - shop mostly at Costco - etc All those other things are gonna be about the same wherever... So it comes down to cost of house, insurance, taxes - everything else factors out. Yes, exactly. I've argued in a few other threads lately that the difference between high cost-of-living areas and low cost-of-living areas really is just the cost of housing. And you can figure that out quickly by browsing Zillow. My wife and I have moved between several of the most expensive areas of the country (e.g. where a 3-4 bedroom house rents fo...
by warner25
Mon Mar 11, 2024 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental (with a cat)
Replies: 37
Views: 3011

Re: Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental (with a cat)

This is great feedback. You might consider a class C with a cabover bunk and pull-out couch. Class C's are also easier to drive if you're not used to an RV. Ok, interesting, I just assumed that bigger would be better. Check to see if pets would even be allowed in the RV. I doubt a cat would be allowed in a rented RV. The Cruise America FAQ says that "Pets are welcomed..." assuming that means both cats and dogs, at least. With RVshare it looks like it would be at the discretion of the individual owner. How much does the rental cost? Cruise America shows $120-150 depending on the exact dates (but that's for round-trip, and I need to contact them to work out a one-way plan). Their website says that campground hookups are typically $1...
by warner25
Mon Mar 11, 2024 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental (with a cat)
Replies: 37
Views: 3011

Re: Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental

Thanks to both of you. Good point that we shouldn't feel locked into any plan, even once we get started. Regarding both that and the topic of individual owner rentals, we actually deviated from our plan last time because of a string of bad Airbnb experiences. We canceled our last two reservations and re-routed to where we could stay in an Embassy Suites instead.
by warner25
Mon Mar 11, 2024 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions
Replies: 113
Views: 9720

Re: Quantify the Value of Military Retirement - Methodology Questions

Maverick3320 wrote: Mon Mar 11, 2024 11:29 am How did you get the $224k number for the 21st year of service? Did you add pension + salary?
I think he added the increase to the total value of the eventual pension for working that 21st year.
by warner25
Mon Mar 11, 2024 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental (with a cat)
Replies: 37
Views: 3011

Wisdom of cross-country, one-way RV rental (with a cat)

I'm hoping to tap the wisdom of this community for feedback on an idea. The most recent threads on RV rentals appear to be from 2018 and didn't get many replies. The bottom line is that my family (wife, four young kids, and recently adopted kitten) are moving from the west coast to the east coast next spring. We're very experienced at moving (career active duty military). We drove from the east coast to the west coast a few years ago when our third kid was still an infant. That time we packed into our minivan and drove 4-5 hours per day, every other day, seeing the sights and staying overnight at Embassy Suites or Airbnb rentals. It went well enough. We were planning to do the same this time, but the cat adds some new challenges, and we've ...
by warner25
Sun Mar 10, 2024 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Helping children young active duty officers
Replies: 28
Views: 2469

Re: Helping children young active duty officers

Don’t cry for your poor kids lol … This was my first reaction too. I think a single or married pair of junior officers is doing well, and a retired O-5 should have it made. I'll likely finish in my mid-40s with $2M in savings (on top of the ~$2M pension) despite having four kids and my wife being a stay-at-home mom. With that said, I've read plenty of threads on this forum that have made me question my life choices, and I can only wish that my parents were in a position to gift me $36,000/year and fund my kids' 529 accounts. ...flying low and fast with NVGs with green sparklies coming at you is never the same as a passenger flight from SEA to PDX and back twice in one day. Lots of pilots hang up there helmets and headsets to do something c...
by warner25
Sat Mar 09, 2024 8:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend a month on food?
Replies: 334
Views: 29232

Re: What's normal for grocery costs for a family?

The USDA creates sample food plans for four different budget levels, and monitors prices in order to establish average costs for the US for following those plans. See here for the price data, and follow the relevant links on that page if you would like to see what the plans are composed of. https://www.fns.usda.gov/cnpp/usda-food-plans-cost-food-monthly-reports I also looked at the USDA food plans. This is definitely a good place to start if you have no idea what number between zero and a million is right for a grocery budget. It could help you anchor. https://www.fns.usda.gov/cnpp/usda-food-plans-cost-food-monthly-reports I haven't seen this before, and it's really nice. So my family might be right around the "low-cost plan" whi...
by warner25
Sat Mar 09, 2024 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you spend a month on food?
Replies: 334
Views: 29232

Re: What's normal for grocery costs for a family?

I'm probably the closest to you, among those who have responded so far. We have four younger kids and live nearby. When I did a semi-detailed analysis of our spending in late 2022 - early 2023, we were spending at least $1,000 on groceries (and some consumable cleaning products) plus another $500 on restaurants. When my kids are teenagers like yours... it's going to hurt. This is eating almost no meat and drinking no alcohol. You shop mainly at Costco. No wonder why your groceries bill is so high. Our average weekly groceries bill is $90 - $100 a week. We shop mainly at HEB, and occasional trip to Costco. We mainly shop at Costco b/c every time we try other approaches it doesn't work out. There are certain weekly staples that make sense to ...
by warner25
Sat Mar 09, 2024 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is HCOLA better than LCOL??
Replies: 62
Views: 3332

Re: Is HCOLA better than LCOL??

...Most of my colleagues in HCOL are barely saving anything at all because they buy 2M homes, pay high state taxes, and pay 30-40K per kid per year for private school... Let's be real, though: most people in most places, regardless of the cost-of-living, are barely saving anything for whatever reasons. They spend a lot more time in their cars and commuting. They are more stressed and spend less time with family. Just generalizing here. We're outside the scope of saving for retirement here, but this is an under-appreciated point. Having lived in an unusual number and variety of places, I've concluded that if one can't live in a big city center, then it's not worth living near one. When I read about the commutes of people living in greater B...
by warner25
Sat Mar 09, 2024 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: At what point did you prioritize health over money?
Replies: 55
Views: 6334

Re: At what point did you prioritize health over money?

...curious if other Bogleheads hit a specific point where they decided that no amount of extra $$ was worth sacrificing their health and overall well-being? In my early to mid-20s I was in a career field that was dangerous and really incompatible with family life in many ways. In my late 20s I made a series of career decisions that resulted in a (modest) immediate pay cut and prevented me from ever having a shot at reaching the level of senior leadership later on. Saying "no amount of extra $$" is a big leap, though. I could have gone farther and given up more pay, but didn't. DH and I had barely a nickel to rub together when we met in our early 20s but those were some of the best years of my life. Now we have more (still not “en...
by warner25
Sat Mar 09, 2024 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is HCOLA better than LCOL??
Replies: 62
Views: 3332

Re: Is HCOLA better than LCOL??

I generally agree with you. I wrote this about differences in cost-of-living last month, arguing that the difference is almost entirely in the cost of housing, which you might find interesting. The corollary is that you don't need to make 2x more in a place where the cost of housing is 2x higher; if you can, then you should be able to save a lot more. On this topic, I just want to add that my wife and I have moved between several of the most expensive areas of the country (e.g. where a 3-4 bedroom house rents for $4-5k/month), and several of the least expensive (e.g. where the same house rents for as little as $1k/month) over the past 15 years as an active duty military family. We have actual data on our spending, and it's remarkable to see...
by warner25
Fri Mar 08, 2024 6:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: feeling stuck with kid expenses and this phase of life
Replies: 61
Views: 7379

Re: feeling stuck with kid expenses and this phase of life

I was coming here today to post a very similar thread... Good luck to you and the others that are in similar positions. And thank you to those that have responded with feedback. Good post. I'm slightly ahead of you in terms of my age, number of kids, and the kids' ages, so I feel every sentence that you wrote. The combination of having actually reached initial career and financial goals with the daily grind of parenting does seem to have this effect. The thought of setting new, ambitious career goals seems laughable when my wife and I are struggling to just accomplish the basics each day (e.g. sleeping, eating, hygiene, getting to places on time). I will say that I've been trying to become more goal-oriented again in the last few years, bu...
by warner25
Fri Mar 08, 2024 5:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are white, red, blue and other bright colors safer [for cars] than other colors???
Replies: 45
Views: 3873

Re: Are white, red, blue and other bright colors safer than other colors???

...The cop who ticketed me said that if my Porsche wasn't red, he probably wouldn't have stopped me. ...ones that stand out on the highway when police are choosing which cars to pull over... If safety is really a top concern, maybe one should just drive at or below the speed limit, and thus not have to worry about getting pulled over either. I wouldn't buy a color based on the increased safety, but I do think it matters in certain situations. I like a charcoal, dark gray color for cars, which is probably the absolute worst as it blends into the road. I remember one time I had a car that color and birds would run into my car while I was moving, seems they had issues also seeing it. My car is red, not because I wanted red but because that's ...
by warner25
Wed Mar 06, 2024 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Seeking Career Advice (post-military, mid-20's)
Replies: 24
Views: 2394

Re: Seeking Career Advice (post-military, mid-20's)

2. Consider maintaining a reserve affiliation... If you complete 20 qualifying years (active and reserve) you will receive a nice pension at age 60, and amazing medical benefits for life... 3. Reserve affiliation is the best networking opportunity you can imagine. Drilling reservists include some of the most outstanding people you will ever meet, and you are already a trusted part of their community. You will receive job offers and high-level mentoring during every drill weekend... This might be the most positive view of reserve service that I've read in a long time. Maybe this is just an Army problem over the past 20 years, but my observation is that it has become full-time expectations for part-time pay, at least at the NCO and officer l...
by warner25
Mon Mar 04, 2024 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 170
Views: 15852

Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

Northern Flicker wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 7:11 pm There was 1 EM country (Estonia) ranked ahead of the US...
Of course it's also tough to pin down a definitive list of what are emerging markets. Looking at the FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index that the Vanguard fund tracks, I don't see Estonia. I do, however, see Iceland.
by warner25
Mon Mar 04, 2024 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 170
Views: 15852

Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

Always passive wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 3:31 pm
Jack56 wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 3:04 pm EM was a bet that did not pay off because investors did not understand that rule of law underpins all valuations and the bulk of EM are not rule of law countries. The investable world is the Anglosphere, western Europe, Israel in the middle east, Japan, Korea and a few others...
...You will be surprised by which countries have a good and decent rule of law. The USA is not exactly on top. See..
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/wb_ruleoflaw/
But everything ranked above the USA is included in his list. I don't see any EM countries on there.
by warner25
Mon Mar 04, 2024 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster
Replies: 170
Views: 15852

Re: Emerging Markets Stocks have been a complete disaster

...They sure weren't a disaster in 2003-2008. So there's that. During that short period of time they pulled so far ahead of US stocks that it took seventeen years for US stocks to catch up. Fascinating, I had no idea. I was well aware of their run in the mid 2000s (and I naively thought that they were the obvious best investment at the time - I mean they're called "emerging" which is basically synonymous with growth!) but I thought they had given back all of their gains after that. EM was a bet that did not pay off because investors did not understand that rule of law underpins all valuations and the bulk of EM are not rule of law countries. This. This. And this is why I'm 100% US. I suppose I could add developed ex-US but it doe...
by warner25
Mon Mar 04, 2024 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If/how/how much to financially assist kids that choose not to go to college
Replies: 48
Views: 3794

Re: If/how/how much to financially assist kids that choose not to go to college

This is VERY much a hypothetical for me, but I've given it a little bit of thought and I find myself in a similar place. My plan is to fund different accounts for them equally as they grow (X number of dollar contributions for Y years, equally, the market may make that uneven after some time but... c'est la vie?)... When they hit college, I spend down the 529... When it's exhausted my assistance is over. If there's money left it's more or less theirs, for a house downpayment or to rollover to their kids, or whatever, and if there's 10% penalty for withdrawing from the 529 so be it. If they don't go to college I set a date in the future (not sure about this... maybe age 26? 30?) and at that date I more or less consider the money is theirs (...
by warner25
Mon Mar 04, 2024 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has investing conservatively ever paid off over a career?
Replies: 261
Views: 32613

Re: Has investing conservatively ever paid off over a career?

... I am sure if you retired in 1929 or 1966, the fact that equities won out in the very long run is a bit -- moot. And October [2008] or March 2020 would have been interesting times to contemplate "the long run". Of course there's Japan. Or the UK in the early 1970s (dropped over 80% in about 18 months, in real terms). The reality is that when stocks are displaying their risk attributes, it actually finishes off investors. Either due to leverage - they get wiped out -- or just the sheer pain of it eventually leads to a "death of equities"... I think if human capital is risky, one should generally take *less* risk with financial capital? To be clear, I think my post indicates broad agreement with you. You quoted the par...
by warner25
Mon Mar 04, 2024 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aggressive savers: Reduce stocks % the closer you are to your target numbers?
Replies: 32
Views: 3574

Re: Aggressive savers: Reduce stocks % the closer you are to your target numbers?

I don't plan to change anything, but I have two big caveats...

1. My wife and I have already been conservative, relative to the consensus guidelines, during accumulation at mostly 60/40. I never had a "maximize returns" perspective in the first place.

2. It looks like I'll get a pension that will roughly cover our expenses (and SS will be eventually be on top of that). We saved aggressively (44% of after-tax income over the past 15 years, with a high water mark of 67% one year) and invested conservatively in part because I wasn't sure how my career would pan out and whether the pension would materialize. So our portfolio could end up being an absurdly high multiple of residual expenses after the pension.
by warner25
Mon Mar 04, 2024 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has investing conservatively ever paid off over a career?
Replies: 261
Views: 32613

Re: Has investing conservatively ever paid off over a career?

...This relies on being able to continue working. Someone can post the chart but 50's and 60's start to have significant unexpected retirement with the chief cause being health related. If you are already at 1.1 million then I would say that is a sound plan... You would already be there had you invested at 70/30 or 80/20. That difference is the extra risk you took by investing more conservatively... This is thought-provoking, and I appreciate it. To summarize the point that I think you're making: The conventional wisdom is that human capital is less risky than stocks, more like bonds[1] (hence the convention of investing heavily in stocks when one is young and then gradually shifting to bonds as human capital diminishes with age). You turn...
by warner25
Sun Mar 03, 2024 6:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has investing conservatively ever paid off over a career?
Replies: 261
Views: 32613

Re: Has investing conservatively ever paid off over a career?

An important part of investing is being comfortable with what you own, otherwise the investor won't be able to stick with their plan/allocation long term That could equally be applied to stock picking. We have people that absolutely hate not chasing winners. I would give both groups the same advice, to learn to manage their comfort as much as possible in order to give the highest chance of success. Not everyone will be a great investor, and we will see people both chasing individual winners and managing comfort in the opposite manner. Both of these behaviors have reduced success rate. Unless we condone the former I don't think we should condone the latter. If we can get 10% more stock ownership out of the ultra-conservative investor and 10...