Search found 390 matches

by warner25
Sun Aug 25, 2019 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Backtesting for Great Depression
Replies: 11
Views: 969

Re: Backtesting for Great Depression

I won't comment on your speculation about whether or not we're on the cusp of a depression, but there is plenty of financial returns data going back well before the 1930s. Some folks say its quality is suspect, and others say it's useless given all the structural changes since that time, but it's ou...
by warner25
Wed Aug 07, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Largest spending category - is this an outrageous amount?
Replies: 56
Views: 3857

Re: Largest spending category - is this an outrageous amount?

How old are your kids? We're a family of five, but none of our kids are of school-age yet, so your combined groceries and eating-out categories are about double ours. Your auto maintenance is very high; like more than my 2008 Prius has cost me over it's whole lifetime. We have a big catch-all catego...
by warner25
Tue Aug 06, 2019 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Oh geeze. How should I pay for this? Walk me off the ledge
Replies: 52
Views: 6526

Re: Oh geeze. How should I pay for this? Walk me off the ledge

ETA: The standard time to be in the hospital was 3 nights. On the night before going home the next day the hospital would give the new parents a steak and champagne dinner. Pretty sweet. We got the steak dinner with sparkling grape juice in 2016. Nice touch, but I don't recommend steak from a hospi...
by warner25
Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Day care vs nanny for child care
Replies: 62
Views: 3677

Re: Day care vs nanny for childcare

That would mean that all nannies are the same. That would also mean that all childcare centers are the same. And that would mean that all parents are the same. I would suggest that hardly any parents are skilled in needs for early intervention when those might be important to some children. No, bec...
by warner25
Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Managing the pressure?
Replies: 20
Views: 4840

Re: Managing the pressure?

Is this a change from a leadership/management role, with direct responsibility and authority for what needs to be done, to a staff role where you're supporting someone higher up who has the responsibility and authority? In my career field we alternate between those roles and many people find the cha...
by warner25
Sat Aug 03, 2019 6:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Day care vs nanny for child care
Replies: 62
Views: 3677

Re: Day care vs nanny for childcare

I listened to a good NPR On-Point episode a few days ago with the author of the book Cribsheet: A Data-Driven Guide to Better, More Relaxed Parenting, from Birth to Preschool by economist Emily Oster. The summary of her conclusions about child-care was that these decisions (SAHP vs nanny vs daycare)...
by warner25
Tue Jul 30, 2019 6:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More
Replies: 124
Views: 9736

Re: Bloomberg: Forget Tech, Medicine Still Pays More

Bill McNeal wrote:
Tue Jul 30, 2019 2:24 am
The article doesn't mention the opportunity cost in time/tuition for medical school and residency.
Thats a pretty egregious omission. Like it's probably the most important part of this whole analysis from a financial perspective.
by warner25
Thu Jul 18, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why Personal Finance is not taught in Schools in the US
Replies: 59
Views: 3137

Re: Why Personal Finance is not taught in Schools in the US

I remember a few classes in middle school that covered a few personal finance topics: household budgeting, understanding utility bills, and the abominable stock-picking game. It certainly wasn't a whole semester or year-long course. In my senior year of college, I had the opportunity to take a real ...
by warner25
Wed Jul 10, 2019 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New Military recruit needs help with TSP
Replies: 18
Views: 1853

Re: New Military recruit needs help with TSP

...Fresh out of college she will still have more money to spend than she has ever had before. So better to get used to saving it than spending it. Next year she only needs to save 40% to hit the $19K limit so it will be like getting a big raise. Yeah, an O-1 will make about $50k with allowances, af...
by warner25
Tue Jul 09, 2019 9:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New Military recruit needs help with TSP
Replies: 18
Views: 1853

Re: New Military recruit needs help with TSP

Why is she limited to 60%? We had a discussion about the limits in MyPay last year and Nords shared this insight... ...DFAS uses the remaining amount for withholding estimated taxes and for FICA. Even if he’s chosen to withhold zero taxes from his pay, DFAS has still coded the Roth TSP max percenta...
by warner25
Thu Jun 27, 2019 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?
Replies: 278
Views: 25319

Re: Crypto bulls are back. Are you getting in?

I have yet to talk to somebody in the real world who owned bitcoin/crypto and had even a sliver of investing knowledge... Haha, +1. Overhearing my coworkers talk about finances makes me cringe. These guys are in debt or just beginning to save, and now they are suddenly talking about crytpocurrency ...
by warner25
Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good times: 2008 vs Now
Replies: 145
Views: 15711

Re: Good times: 2008 vs Now

I graduated from college in 2008 as well. I remember thinking that both home prices and oil/gas prices (especially in 2008) obviously couldn't continue rising as they had been, or else nobody would be able to afford either in a short period of time. I also remember reading dire warnings of impending...
by warner25
Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: June 6, 1944 D Day and General Patton [D-Day plus 11 days, a war article by Ernie Pyle]
Replies: 42
Views: 4505

Re: D-Day plus 11 days, a war article written by Ernie Pyle

Yes although what the USA achieved 1965-1971 in Vietnam should not be underestimated... Gulf War 1 was pretty incredible too. All true, as far as the logistical scale, as you say. I was thinking more of the rate and number of casualties; losses on June 6, 1944, alone were on par with all losses in ...
by warner25
Sun Jun 16, 2019 9:53 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: June 6, 1944 D Day and General Patton [D-Day plus 11 days, a war article by Ernie Pyle]
Replies: 42
Views: 4505

Re: D-Day plus 11 days, a war article written by Ernie Pyle

My understanding is that the terms 'D-Day' and 'H-Hour' are generic military terms, allowing for detailed planning of the assault to occur without actually specifying the actual day (and hour) of the assault until absolutely necessary. Still true today for every military staff, along with an alphab...
by warner25
Sat Jun 08, 2019 7:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sports classes in Universities
Replies: 60
Views: 3875

Re: Sports classes in Universities

I took a couple classes like that in college in the mid to late 00s: swimming and golf. Not required. Free to me since I had a full-tuition scholarship, and I'm not sure they'd be worth the money otherwise. I think if you were present for some percentage of classes you got a P and 1.0 credit appeare...
by warner25
Tue Jun 04, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trip to Vermont/New Hampshire
Replies: 34
Views: 2403

Re: Trip to Vermont/New Hampshire

For those that have visited both the northeast and Smoky Mountains/Blue Ridge Parkway during peak foliage season, what's the difference? A key difference between the White Mountains and those farther south is that you can actually experience the Alpine zone up there. Mount Mitchell in North Carolin...
by warner25
Tue Jun 04, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relocating to Ft Belvoir, VA
Replies: 15
Views: 1422

Re: Relocating to Ft Belvoir, VA

How is this not a PCS move? It sounds like you're getting screwed on entitlements. Fixing that would be my top priority. If it's not a PCS move, can you even be eligible for on-post housing? Maybe in the flat-rate neighborhoods. The officer housing had very long waiting lists as of a couple years ag...
by warner25
Fri May 31, 2019 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does one need a bank account anymore?
Replies: 60
Views: 4715

Re: Does one need a bank account anymore?

And, of course, safe deposit boxes. Interesting that you bring this up because I tried unsuccessfully to get a safe deposit box a couple years ago with Bank of America. Basically they told me that very few braches even have them anymore, and, where they do have them, it is very rare to have any ava...
by warner25
Fri May 31, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?
Replies: 369
Views: 40501

Re: For those who earn $500k+ per year. How'd you do that?

There's a mountain of evidence that earning more money beyond having your needs comfortably covered (think $60k to $100k range for a family of 4 in most areas of the US) doesn't make people happier. I think the assumption in these studies, which is often true outside of the Boglehead community, is ...
by warner25
Mon May 27, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: House not selling
Replies: 138
Views: 12096

Re: House not selling

After the realtor fees We will essentially be losing money on the property. That seems perfectly reasonable to me. Why shouldn't it cost something to live somewhere for three years? Why did you think in the first place that the house would be worth $50k more after living in it for three years? Reje...
by warner25
Sun May 19, 2019 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Guidance to Parents With Kids Majoring Computer Science
Replies: 25
Views: 2755

Re: Guidance to Parents With Kids Majoring Computer Science

This is a strange thread. I see some bold generalizations about all kinds of things for someone who is only a recent college graduate in their first real job in the industry. The whole premise that parents should have their college-aged children doing this or that, in terms of their studies and care...
by warner25
Sat May 18, 2019 7:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why do plumbers get paid so well?
Replies: 84
Views: 6774

Re: Why do plumbers get paid so well?

I can't believe how most people in this thread are just accepting the premise that plumbers are "paid so well." According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics: The median annual wage for plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters was $53,910 in May 2018... The lowest 10 percent earned less than $32,10...
by warner25
Sat May 18, 2019 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 82
Views: 6995

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

How do you go about this? I think we still don't have any good way to go about this. Like DonIce said, I was just getting started in 2008-2009 as a single guy with a very low five-figure sum invested. I know how I felt at that time, but now I'm married with three kids and we have a high six-figure ...
by warner25
Thu May 09, 2019 8:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cell Phone Plan/Carrier Recommendation?
Replies: 59
Views: 6707

Re: Cell Phone Plan/Carrier Recommendation?

...Boggles my mind that more people don't do the same... I read your blog post, and I do use Google Voice/Hangouts and Red Pocket's $10/month plan, but I don't think I can go lower than that. The "key ingredient," as you say for your system, is really not Google Voice; it's "[spending] 90% of your ...
by warner25
Sat May 04, 2019 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: College/life prep for young kids
Replies: 79
Views: 6903

Re: College/life prep for young kids

Trying to think about career decisions for 6 and 9 year-old kids just strikes me as silly. Saying that a kid at that age "has always wanted to be ____" seems even more so. Your 3rd grade son "isn't a huge fan of homework?" I don't even remember being in the 3rd grade. Did we have homework? Like you ...
by warner25
Tue Mar 26, 2019 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are independent garages cheaper than dealer?
Replies: 58
Views: 4675

Re: Are independent garages cheaper than dealer?

Whenever I've needed a repair, the dealership quotes were literally double the rate that everyone else quoted me. A car wash and popcorn certainly don't cover the difference... maybe if they offered a late-model loaner car for a week, but I've always found another shop that could take care of me wit...
by warner25
Sat Mar 23, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why past performance does not predict future?
Replies: 70
Views: 3151

Re: Why past performance does not predict future?

The performance football teams is not random, and when a team with record 7-1 plays a team with record 1-7, the former team usually wins. But the favored team has only about a 50% chance of covering the spread, since bookies are not dumb. Since stock analysts are not dumb, highly profitable compani...
by warner25
Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why past performance does not predict future?
Replies: 70
Views: 3151

Re: Why past performance does not predict future?

It's because the stock market is dynamic and based on expectations -- so getting outsized future returns means that you have to find stocks that continue to beat expectations. The appropriate analogies would not be that a good baseball player or student continues to be good, but that they keep perf...
by warner25
Tue Mar 19, 2019 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 5G, AI (Artificial Intelligence), and Cyber Security ETF Suggestions?
Replies: 12
Views: 1199

Re: 5G, AI (Artificial Intelligence), and Cyber Security ETF Suggestions?

I'm mostly wondering why you believe "the market" hasn't already appropriately priced the stocks of companies in these areas. If anything, given the current buzz over these terms, I'd expect them to be overpriced relative to a sober analysis of commercial potential. I'm reminded of late 2017 when se...
by warner25
Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military Spouses Residency Relief Act
Replies: 9
Views: 721

Re: Military Spouses Residency Relief Act

Ketawa, I've maintained my license and voter registration in my state of residence / home of record for two reasons. First, because it's easier than changing things every time I make a PCS move. Renewal of my license and absentee voting by mail is easier than driving to a city/county office to wait ...
by warner25
Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military Spouses Residency Relief Act
Replies: 9
Views: 721

Re: Military Spouses Residency Relief Act

You can claim Florida as your state of residence (and presumably count any investment income as occurring there), but you will still have to file (and pay) nonresident state income taxes for whatever states you worked in... each state wants their piece of the income tax pie I'm not an expert either...
by warner25
Sun Mar 17, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Housing should be no more than 28% of your income.
Replies: 66
Views: 6406

Re: Housing should be no more than 28% of your income.

I don't see how there's any one size fits all percentage here... In HCOL markets, it's mostly housing that is far more expensive than other goods, so you'd expect a higher percent of income to be allocated to housing. I was thinking the same thing. What matters is how many dollars are still availab...
by warner25
Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What are your personal experiences with downside of early retirement?
Replies: 95
Views: 17667

Re: What are your personal experiences with downside of early retirement?

Not retired here, but I had an extraordinary amount of downtime in my career over the past couple years (call it a sabbatical), and that gave me some perspective. Depending on how early you're talking, like Mr. Money Mustache style FIRE in your 30s, you need to think hard about life with kids at hom...
by warner25
Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another MBA question: Military transition
Replies: 7
Views: 469

Re: Another MBA question: Military transition

I still have a ways to go before I start seriously thinking about post-military retirement as an O4 or O5, but I understand wanting to work in a totally different environment. I expect an uphill climb to get hired though. Of the retirees I personally know, almost all have ended up in government or t...
by warner25
Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you look back and wish you were more aggressive?
Replies: 64
Views: 4842

Re: Do you look back and wish you were more aggressive?

We're pretty conservative so we've thought about it, and sure it would be nice to have more money, but I also realize that it might not have a made a big material difference for us. As young as we are, savings contributions simply matter more than investment returns. If we had been 100% stocks vs 50...
by warner25
Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:38 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: How many bogleheads do you know in real life?
Replies: 130
Views: 10239

Re: How many bogleheads do you know in real life?

I actually made new friend through work a few months ago who is a reader of the forum. It was and still is very exciting. Also very unexpected after a decade of reading this forum and suggesting it to people who've never heard of it.
by warner25
Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: IT certifications
Replies: 22
Views: 1244

Re: IT certifications

Thanks for the replies. I'm glad to hear this is mostly a DoD-specific quirk. I've definitely gotten the sense that a lot of people with zero technical background or education can cram for these exams and memorize enough to pass with very superficial knowledge. I suppose I'll take what I can get for...
by warner25
Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: IT certifications
Replies: 22
Views: 1244

IT certifications

I have an academic computer science background (BA and MS) and I'm making a mid-career move from something unrelated to information technology management within the DoD. The biggest thing that's surprised me so far is the culture of industry/vendor certifications; people talk constantly about what "...
by warner25
Tue Jan 22, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Military Paying down Mortgage Early
Replies: 19
Views: 1341

Re: Military Home Purchase

Whether buying or renting makes sense in your situation comes down to what costs are covered for you by the military, vs. what costs you bear. Interesting point about the military (possibly) covering the transaction costs -- I wasn't aware that was a thing (closing/transaction costs being covered w...
by warner25
Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?
Replies: 205
Views: 34315

Re: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?

combination of a good income (low six-figure) and a high savings rate (about 50%). We're also on track to have about $1M at about 40, and yeah, it's basically just this. We earned almost $1M, combined, over our first ten years out of college and put almost half of that in savings. Even if markets g...
by warner25
Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security for Millennials
Replies: 234
Views: 30251

Re: Social Security for Millennials

The actual demographic case, in the US situation at least, is that the Millennials are probably OK. The Baby Boom has already turned at least 53, and increasing mortality is a feature going forward. In 20-30 years, the Baby Boomers are mostly out of the system - the oldest Baby Boomer in 2043 would...
by warner25
Mon Dec 31, 2018 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions for the BH “All Stars”
Replies: 23
Views: 2245

Re: Questions for the BH “All Stars”

Do you have 15 minutes to read the Boglehead wiki? A couple of hours, before getting started. Then maybe more later. How long does it take to read this index card? I always enjoy reading what these All Stars write, but the answers to this question surprise me. I do agree that you can distill Bogleh...
by warner25
Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Router with VPN - experiences?
Replies: 16
Views: 2220

Re: Router with VPN - experiences?

I previously had a router running DDWRT firmware configured to connect to StrongVPN so all traffic from all my devices went through that tunnel. It was easy enough to set up and worked for my purposes. Just be aware of potential slowdown. Without the StrongVPN connection I got like 100 Mbps, and wit...
by warner25
Mon Dec 31, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Much Data Backup is Enough?
Replies: 5
Views: 393

Re: How Much Data Backup is Enough?

The gold standard per my information assurance training was to have at least 3 instances on at least 2 different types of media with at least 1 off-site. This should also be automated and include versioning so that you don't overwrite good data with corrupted data. And occasionally check your backup...
by warner25
Sat Dec 29, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to afford a sports car?
Replies: 128
Views: 9791

Re: How to afford a sports car?

livesoft wrote:
Fri Dec 28, 2018 9:27 pm
I have kids your age and they wouldn't be caught dead posting on Bogleheads.org. :)
Because their dad reads every post or some other reason?

Luckily my dad is a spendthrift, so I think saving money is cool. He has two sports cars while I have a 10-year old Prius.
by warner25
Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Share your net worth progression
Replies: 1091
Views: 307917

Re: What is your Year 2018 networth change?

I looked at this yesterday morning and was humbled to see that our portfolio only went up $2k despite putting $30k of new money into savings. Of course, last year we were up $98k after putting away the same $30k, which was stunning. Looking at it that way, up $100k after saving $60k over two years, ...
by warner25
Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which balanced fund for taxable (if in a low tax bracket)?
Replies: 6
Views: 881

Re: Which balanced fund for taxable (if in a low tax bracket)?

In the 12% bracket, taxable bonds after-tax appear to pay more than tax-exempt bonds of similar quality and duration. I'm in the 12% bracket and also prefer to have a balanced fund in my taxable account, and every time I've looked at it, VBIAX still seems like the better choice. For intermediate ter...
by warner25
Sun Dec 16, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Military-Advice Needed
Replies: 13
Views: 1597

Re: Military-Advice Needed

Making it to 20 years as an officer, by itself, pretty much amounts to "winning the game" in my book (as long as the officer hasn't lost half his retirement pay to divorce). Doing so with a spouse who additionally earns $160k per year with no intent to retire for another decade means you've crushed ...
by warner25
Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nice gifts for young kids
Replies: 33
Views: 2799

Re: Nice gifts for young kids

Raymond wrote:
Sat Dec 15, 2018 11:03 am
If the 4- and 2-year-olds aren't allergic, and their parents are ok with it, huge Hershey chocolate bars and crisp $20 bills (how many is up to you) inside holiday cards.


Yes, please!
by warner25
Sun Dec 16, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nice gifts for young kids
Replies: 33
Views: 2799

Re: Nice gifts for young kids

My kids are 4,2 and 0. While there are so many fun and lovely toys you could give, I'm guessing that your recipient family already has plenty of them. Preventing their house from overflowing with those toys is probably a major source of stress. Same for books and clothes, especially if the kids are ...