Search found 2832 matches

by Admiral
Mon May 11, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: post covid 19 office work - was coronavirus a game changer for telecommunting?
Replies: 48
Views: 3655

Re: post covid 19 office work - was coronavirus a game changer for telecommunting?

A friend just told me that their offices were just deep cleaned.

Cost: $50,000.

If that happens a few times after infected individuals went to work, the "come into the office at all costs" attitude is going to change very, very quickly.
by Admiral
Mon May 11, 2020 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Estimating social security in the future
Replies: 29
Views: 2116

Re: Estimating social security in the future

I guess this is the first coronavirus-era post on this thread. The link below leads to an article that suggests that, due to the economic effects of the coronavirus, the Social Security trust fund may be depleted as much as two years sooner than previously expected, from 2035 to 2033. I guess we sh...
by Admiral
Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it always smart to buy points (mortgage)?
Replies: 46
Views: 4273

Re: Is it always smart to buy points (mortgage)?

Agree that it is simple math to calculate the break even point for points. I would submit however the average lifespan of a mortgage is just 3-4 years- they are refi’d for a lower rate, additional cash out, or paid off due to a move. No one knows the future (kind of like the stock market), so its a...
by Admiral
Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it always smart to buy points (mortgage)?
Replies: 46
Views: 4273

Re: Is it always smart to buy points (mortgage)?

I'm facing this dilemma myself. I refi'd my purchase mortgage at 6 years and now I am refi'ing again 3 years later. That said, I'm tempted by the points as they are "cheap" and wondering if rates would really get low enough to make it worthwhile to refi again. My options are: Rate Points Breakeven ...
by Admiral
Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it always smart to buy points (mortgage)?
Replies: 46
Views: 4273

Re: Is it always smart to buy points (mortgage)?

Seeing this thread pop up always makes me laugh because recent history leads me to believe that it's rarely smart to buy points. When you have a job that's steady, and/or know this home will be your home in retirement (i.e. you won't be moving) and rates are sub-3%--and esp for a 15 year loan--buyi...
by Admiral
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999
Replies: 63
Views: 4759

Re: Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999

Don't like gold? It is outperforming bonds and stocks since 1999. Portfolio performance statistics from Jan 3, 2000, to April 2, 2020: Portfolio Initial Final CAGR Stocks $10,000 $26,829 4.99% Bonds $10,000 $26,397 4.91% Gold $10,000 $50,729 8.35% Source: Portfolio Visualizer You could do a similar...
by Admiral
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999
Replies: 63
Views: 4759

Re: Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999

Folks: As I said, the dates matter. Yes, Treasuries were way higher in 1999. And the stock market peaked a month ago. But the past ten years (or about half of the period in question) have seen continual stock market records combined with very low fixed income returns, and bonds have still outperform...
by Admiral
Thu Apr 02, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999
Replies: 63
Views: 4759

Re: Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999

So then why not compare accumulating for 20 years..... like this. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=1000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=1000&inflationA...
by Admiral
Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999
Replies: 63
Views: 4759

Re: Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999

Yes - of course starting and ending dates matter. This is just a headline grabbing piece but don't be expecting this to happen again. On December 31, 1999 - the 10 year Treasury was yielding 6.45% and the year ended with CPI at 2.2% annualized. Approximately a "real" yield of 4.25%! As of today, Ap...
by Admiral
Thu Apr 02, 2020 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999
Replies: 63
Views: 4759

Re: Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999

It's interesting but as the saying goes, past performance is not an indicator of future outcomes. (especially with a totally different interest rate environment) Perhaps, but interest rates have been very, very low for 11 years running now, or about half the period noted above. Make of that what yo...
by Admiral
Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999
Replies: 63
Views: 4759

Don't like bonds? They are outperforming stocks since 1999

As per the Wall Street Journal: Bonds have pulled away from stocks in the race for returns since the turn of the century. Since the close of trading on Dec. 31, 1999, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, known as the Agg, has netted investors a cumulative total return of 176% through We...
by Admiral
Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage Forbearance
Replies: 18
Views: 1567

Re: Mortgage Forbearance

In most cases the solution that will make sense for (and to) most people is more or less a recast: You skip payments for X months, then resume paying what you paid before, with the deferred payments tacked on to the end of the loan (i.e. interest bearing principal amount is increased and the loan te...
by Admiral
Tue Mar 31, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Flexible Retirement Planner, usage question
Replies: 6
Views: 407

Re: Flexible Retirement Planner, usage question

So I did as suggested by adjusting the starting value. Thank you for the advice. So, based on how these monte-carlo simulations work would it be adding inaccuracy by putting in one or two "guaranteed" dips at some interval such as 10-15 years out? It should already have volatility baked in, right? ...
by Admiral
Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [How should I feel about being down 10.5% YTD?]
Replies: 11
Views: 1046

Re: [How should I feel about being down 10.5% YTD?]

You were a millionaire. Now you're slightly less than a millionaire (or, probably, slightly more with home equity and NPV of pension). You're richer than 95-97% of the population. Whether that makes you feel good, better, or worse than you did last month is intrinsic to your opinion about self worth...
by Admiral
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 60/40 is dead?
Replies: 25
Views: 3298

Re: 60/40 is dead?

I was 70/30 and I'm now 60/40, so I can assure you it's not dead! :?

OK more like 65/35, but still...Prob will leave it there and not rebalance for a bit, as my personal view is there are more drops ahead.

I will say that I never plan to be less than 30% bonds/cash moving forward. I am 49.
by Admiral
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Flexible Retirement Planner, usage question
Replies: 6
Views: 407

Re: Flexible Retirement Planner, usage question

Current value of accounts. I don't see why you wouldn't use the current value. You want to be accurate, no? A 30% drop is still significant. As you know, in FRP you can model any yearly drop (or gain) you want in the Additional Inputs fields. So, I suppose you could use last month's numbers and mode...
by Admiral
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5588
Views: 479389

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Once more for the cheap seats: market timing does not work . Stay the course. Not sure how you are connecting those dots. Isn't it obvious? You cannot predict what the market will do, which is what market timers try to do. Up, down, or sideways, we have no idea. When you get out, you risk missing t...
by Admiral
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5588
Views: 479389

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Once more for the cheap seats: market timing does not work . Stay the course. Not sure how you are connecting those dots. Isn't it obvious? You cannot predict what the market will do, which is what market timers try to do. Up, down, or sideways, we have no idea. When you get out, you risk missing t...
by Admiral
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5588
Views: 479389

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Don't recall ever seeing a 9+% gain in one day in my nearly 30 years of investing.

Once more for the cheap seats: market timing does not work. Stay the course.
by Admiral
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does your Crystal Ball say?
Replies: 96
Views: 4801

Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

Gonna be ugly for a while. All of the buying over the last 2 weeks by people is like catching that falling knife. I suspect that the current freefall has been partially slowed with people 'buying the dip' and 'deploying dry powder'. When the funds needed to do so are exhausted or people get fearful...
by Admiral
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What does your Crystal Ball say?
Replies: 96
Views: 4801

Re: What does your Crystal Ball say?

IMO it will cause (or perhaps already is causing) a recession. You can't have this much economic disruption and not lose productivity. But... so what? Recessions happen regularly, and don't last forever. I do think we might see more pain in the markets. But really we've just given up the last year's...
by Admiral
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?
Replies: 359
Views: 25880

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

BoggledHead2 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 11:19 am
Your net worth only goes down if you sell at losses
Not really. Your NW is a reflection of the value of your investments (plus other things you own) at any given moment in time. It fluctuates every minute the markets are open.
by Admiral
Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?
Replies: 359
Views: 25880

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

I count my net worth differently than others. I am mainly concerned with the bulk of my net worth, my investments, not my (paid off) house or other illiquid assets. For my investments, I estimate the value of the shares that I own, not the current selling price . The value does not change (or chang...
by Admiral
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?
Replies: 359
Views: 25880

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

I honestly cannot understand panic selling I don't like watching the market go down like this one bit But the further it drops the more I know I'm not selling and locking in a 20+ percent loss Why do you think it's panic selling? Panic selling: " wide-scale selling of an investment which causes a s...
by Admiral
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?
Replies: 359
Views: 25880

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Market takes the escalator up, the elevator down, as some wise person once remarked.

Say hello to the elevator days! :?
by Admiral
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?
Replies: 359
Views: 25880

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

Been through this several times before. The main thing to remember is that the only two days that matter are the day you buy and the day you sell. Everything in between is merely noise. The way to financial freedom is to buy low and sell high; not the opposite. Well said Mel! This is my third or fo...
by Admiral
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?
Replies: 359
Views: 25880

Re: Who is staying course and how are you dealing with net worth going down?

I'm taking it as a stress test of my risk tolerance and AA. So far I am down likely $200k, though I have not looked for a while (and probably won't).

Nothing to be done, just keep buying on schedule and enjoy the low prices.

It's likely to get worse before it gets better.
by Admiral
Thu Mar 05, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: SP500 index in taxable
Replies: 21
Views: 1987

Re: SP500 index in taxable

how do having the same etf of mutual fund in taxable and tax deferred cause wash sales? It's not the "having", it's the buying. If you buy ETF shares in an IRA within a 61 day period of selling the ETF shares (30 days before, day of, 30 days after) in a taxable account for a loss you trigger a wash...
by Admiral
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18793
Views: 2627041

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Don't assume that people who post in this thread about daily fluctuations aren't "stay the course" people. There are a variety of people posting but I'd imagine a lot of people are like me. I consider personal Finance a hobby and enjoy educating myself about it. for some people, very volatile marke...
by Admiral
Thu Mar 05, 2020 7:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to decide whether to refinance?
Replies: 6
Views: 701

Re: How to decide whether to refinance?

A difference of .25% with no fees is worth it (with the exception noted below). With fees, likely not much savings (if any, I would have to run the numbers). But problem is you are 4+ years in... and now looking to add years onto the loan. If you're planning to "overpay" anyway, just overpay more on...
by Admiral
Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refi - walk me through this pls
Replies: 34
Views: 2411

Re: Refi - walk me through this pls

401K loans are fine, but didn't someone post that if you leave the job you have to repay the loan ? Lesson for me is that I wish I had not paid off my mortgage in its entirety. It can be difficult to leverage the equity in the home especially with a low income should one retire/semi-retire or lose ...
by Admiral
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refi - walk me through this pls
Replies: 34
Views: 2411

Re: Refi - walk me through this pls

First, do not refi into another 30 year. That A) defeats your goal of eliminating the loan in retirement and B) lowers a payment that you're already paying more on. That makes little sense. 15 year is the way to go IMO. If you have adequate liquidity--and it seems you do, since you're throwing spar...
by Admiral
Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refi - walk me through this pls
Replies: 34
Views: 2411

Re: Refi - walk me through this pls

401K loans are fine, but didn't someone post that if you leave the job you have to repay the loan ? Lesson for me is that I wish I had not paid off my mortgage in its entirety. It can be difficult to leverage the equity in the home especially with a low income should one retire/semi-retire or lose ...
by Admiral
Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5588
Views: 479389

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Unless there is sufficient, widespread, reliable testing, the death rate is unknown: to know it, we would have to know the number of infected. We don't know that. Not reliably, at least. My guess is there are hundreds of thousands who have or have had this virus, and the mortality rate is low. That...
by Admiral
Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5588
Views: 479389

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Anyone else getting nauseous from this see saw? Today I think the markets just like Biden over Bernie. Maybe but: 1. Little new scarey news today on virus. 2. Congress agreed on $8B in emergency funds 3. WHO's Tedros quoted today: "This virus is not SARS, it is not MERS, and it is not influenza...T...
by Admiral
Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refi - walk me through this pls
Replies: 34
Views: 2411

Re: Refi - walk me through this pls

Thank you all. I am not maxing out my retirement vehicles but because I get a 20% profit sharing contribution into my retirement plan I end up saving about $40-50K per year in my 401K (depending on bonus amounts). In other words I do go over the $19,500 + $6,500 (50+ years) = $26,000 max 401K contr...
by Admiral
Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refi - walk me through this pls
Replies: 34
Views: 2411

Re: Refi - walk me through this pls

There is no wrong answer. Here are my thoughts. If things are tight and the end of daycare payments are a big relief, I've got news -- the kid will get more expensive over the life of your mortgage. There often isn't an enormous difference between getting a 15 year mortgage vs getting a 30 year and...
by Admiral
Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refi - walk me through this pls
Replies: 34
Views: 2411

Re: Refi - walk me through this pls

If you are fine on cashflow does it not just come down to interest paid? Right now: .0375 x $420,000 = ~ $15,570 year one cost Refi 15 year: .0250 x $420,000 = ~ $10,500 year one cost Refi 30 year: .030 x $420,000 = ~ $12,600 year one cost Obviously as the loan balance goes down the numbers change....
by Admiral
Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5588
Views: 479389

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I've been investing for 30 years and I cannot recall swings of this magnitude day after day. Not saying it has not happened, but I just don't recall them. Up and down by multiple percentage points for a week and a half.
by Admiral
Wed Mar 04, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refi - walk me through this pls
Replies: 34
Views: 2411

Re: Refi - walk me through this pls

First, do not refi into another 30 year. That A) defeats your goal of eliminating the loan in retirement and B) lowers a payment that you're already paying more on. That makes little sense. 15 year is the way to go IMO. If you have adequate liquidity--and it seems you do, since you're throwing spare...
by Admiral
Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5588
Views: 479389

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Anyone else getting nauseous from this see saw?

Today I think the markets just like Biden over Bernie.
by Admiral
Wed Mar 04, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: The unicorn mortgage: 30 year fixed under 3%
Replies: 82
Views: 12229

Re: The unicorn mortgage: 30 year fixed under 3%

I'm in that Goldilocks zone too. I'm currently on a 15 @ 3.25 with 12 years remaining but I guess I could refinance into a 30 and pay extra each month. I need to do the math on that. Or maybe I can find a 15 at that rate. I think someone mentioned 15 year was at 2.5% on another thread. But why woul...
by Admiral
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 30 year mortgage under 3%
Replies: 284
Views: 42049

Re: 30 year mortgage under 3%

Interesting piece on why mortgage rates are not lower, and how they could become lower. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-can-jolt-the-economy-in-one-other-way-2020-03-04 Indeed, since 2019 the Fed has been easing through a combination of rate cuts and balance-sheet expansion via purchases o...
by Admiral
Tue Mar 03, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Refinance to 15 year fixed, or continue IRA contributions?
Replies: 14
Views: 915

Re: Refinance to 15 year fixed, or continue IRA contributions?

Most Bh's almost always rec. maxing retirement space before pre-paying a mortgage. You are asking to STOP contributing to retirement (which saves you actual money at your marginal bracket) to put that money into a loan that will save you only 1% .785% (versus what you are currently paying). This is ...
by Admiral
Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5588
Views: 479389

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Doh! :oops:

It is a very blunt instrument, as we know...
by Admiral
Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5588
Views: 479389

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

And the rate-cut rally continues!
by Admiral
Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 30 year mortgage under 3%
Replies: 284
Views: 42049

Re: 30 year mortgage under 3%

1.5 years into a 30yr @ 4.44%. Just locked a 15yr @ 2.625% with negative points bringing the closing costs down to ~$800. Craziness. Lenderfi was the company and they handily beat AimLoan and significantly crushed my local banks I have relationships with. Welcome to the sub-3% club. :sharebeer What...
by Admiral
Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 30 year mortgage under 3%
Replies: 284
Views: 42049

Re: 30 year mortgage under 3%

1.5 years into a 30yr @ 4.44%. Just locked a 15yr @ 2.625% with negative points bringing the closing costs down to ~$800. Craziness. Lenderfi was the company and they handily beat AimLoan and significantly crushed my local banks I have relationships with. Welcome to the sub-3% club. :sharebeer What...
by Admiral
Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 5588
Views: 479389

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Today just reinforces for me that I know nothing, I can predict nothing, and I will do nothing (well, very little, anyway) except stay the course.
by Admiral
Mon Mar 02, 2020 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 30 year mortgage under 3%
Replies: 284
Views: 42049

Re: 30 year mortgage under 3%

If the Fed now cuts rates at March meeting (as expected) then rates could go even lower. Not guaranteed, of course, and might already be priced in. But I might wait to see how things shake out.