Search found 1998 matches

by Admiral
Sat May 25, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Flexible Retirement Planner
Replies: 37
Views: 5809

Re: The Flexible Retirement Planner

It is quite simple to ignore high or low values with FRP. For each future year, it reports the median, top 10%, and bottom 10% portfolio value. You can use, or ignore, whatever values you wish. All results are in current dollars.
by Admiral
Fri May 24, 2019 7:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Quantify the Financial Benefits of Buying and Holding Rather than Selling?
Replies: 5
Views: 582

Re: How to Quantify the Financial Benefits of Buying and Holding Rather than Selling?

There is no way to quantify it because the answer is always "it depends." Buying and holding Bitcoin may or may not be a good strategy. But certainly selling at its height would have also been a good strategy...we just don't know the future value. Reducing churn for most high-value things that have...
by Admiral
Thu May 23, 2019 7:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to Quantify the Financial Benefits of Buying and Holding Rather than Selling?
Replies: 5
Views: 582

Re: How to Quantify the Financial Benefits of Buying and Holding Rather than Selling?

There is no way to quantify it because the answer is always "it depends." Buying and holding Bitcoin may or may not be a good strategy. But certainly selling at its height would have also been a good strategy...we just don't know the future value. Reducing churn for most high-value things that have ...
by Admiral
Wed May 22, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If living expenses taxable Roth conversion always beats contribution?
Replies: 10
Views: 689

Re: If living expenses taxable Roth conversion always beats contribution?

Sort of a simple rule I'm asking about (see if something I'm not thinking)... if you are in retirement and paying taxes on what your are contributing to an annual Roth contribution, it would ALWAYS make more sense to do that same in a conversion instead of a contribution? So if a retiree thinks he ...
by Admiral
Wed May 22, 2019 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If living expenses taxable Roth conversion always beats contribution?
Replies: 10
Views: 689

Re: If living expenses taxable Roth conversion always beats contribution?

Sort of a simple rule I'm asking about (see if something I'm not thinking)... if you are in retirement and paying taxes on what your are contributing to an annual Roth contribution, it would ALWAYS make more sense to do that same in a conversion instead of a contribution? So if a retiree thinks he ...
by Admiral
Tue May 21, 2019 6:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Relocate to Charleston SC?
Replies: 51
Views: 4800

Re: Relocate to Charleston SC?

What are your monthly expenses as a ratio to income? We need your portfolio draw. The reason is because there may be a solution other than moving. You have decent assets but seem to have relatively poor cashflow. As another poster said, liquidating might allow you to stay. It also might allow you to...
by Admiral
Mon May 20, 2019 6:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: completely freaked out about withdrawing from retirement accounts....
Replies: 57
Views: 6759

Re: completely freaked out about withdrawing from retirement accounts....

Fixed Return Fund - TRS TRS NYC › memberportal › Investments The Fixed Return Fund offers a guaranteed rate of return set by the New York State Legislature in accordance with applicable laws. The current annual rate is 7% for members who are serving in (or resigned/retired from) titles represented ...
by Admiral
Mon May 20, 2019 5:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: completely freaked out about withdrawing from retirement accounts....
Replies: 57
Views: 6759

Re: completely freaked out about withdrawing from retirement accounts....

Fixed Return Fund - TRS TRS NYC › memberportal › Investments The Fixed Return Fund offers a guaranteed rate of return set by the New York State Legislature in accordance with applicable laws. The current annual rate is 7% for members who are serving in (or resigned/retired from) titles represented ...
by Admiral
Mon May 20, 2019 5:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: completely freaked out about withdrawing from retirement accounts....
Replies: 57
Views: 6759

Re: completely freaked out about withdrawing from retirement accounts....

Fixed Return Fund - TRS TRS NYC › memberportal › Investments The Fixed Return Fund offers a guaranteed rate of return set by the New York State Legislature in accordance with applicable laws. The current annual rate is 7% for members who are serving in (or resigned/retired from) titles represented ...
by Admiral
Mon May 20, 2019 5:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage in Retirement
Replies: 73
Views: 5509

Re: Mortgage in Retirement

In my opinion, too many concentrate on building or maintaining invested assets in retirement instead of taking a step back and looking at the entire picture. Retirement is all about income needed to meet expenses + a certain percentage of money in reserve for discretionary spending, plus establishi...
by Admiral
Fri May 17, 2019 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does stock allocation truly matter?
Replies: 61
Views: 5266

Re: Does stock allocation truly matter?

Does stock allocation truly matter? BWildt: Yes, stock allocation truly matters and it "matters" a lot. "Asset allocation is critically important; but cost is critically important, too -- All other factors pale into insignificance." Jack Bogle Best wishes. Taylor Sorry he is wrong. Saving is more i...
by Admiral
Fri May 17, 2019 8:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I value wife's pension?
Replies: 23
Views: 1818

Re: How do I value wife's pension?

$30k/yr from teacher retirement, she started drawing last year at age 52. No automatic COLA, state legislature must approve them, not something to count on. It is set up for 100% survivor benefit for me if she goes first. So how to treat it as a currently invested/banked equivalent present amount i...
by Admiral
Fri May 17, 2019 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does stock allocation truly matter?
Replies: 61
Views: 5266

Re: Does stock allocation truly matter?

Does stock allocation truly matter? BWildt: Yes, stock allocation truly matters and it "matters" a lot. "Asset allocation is critically important; but cost is critically important, too -- All other factors pale into insignificance." Jack Bogle Best wishes. Taylor Sorry he is wrong. Saving is more i...
by Admiral
Fri May 17, 2019 6:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I value wife's pension?
Replies: 23
Views: 1818

Re: How do I value wife's pension?

It would be interesting to see a formula for this calculation. I am with the OP in that I will one day have a pension that I would like to know the value of. The reasons for this are as follows: -It doesn't have a cola so I have a hard time plugging it into my long term calculations. -I may conside...
by Admiral
Fri May 17, 2019 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does stock allocation truly matter?
Replies: 61
Views: 5266

Re: Does stock allocation truly matter?

When you're just starting out, AA is less important, because growth comes mainly from contributions. However, once the pile grows significantly, growth comes (mostly) from earnings, and contributions simply help to smooth out the lows. At that point, yes, it makes a difference. Why? Because you can ...
by Admiral
Thu May 16, 2019 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I value wife's pension?
Replies: 23
Views: 1818

Re: How do I value wife's pension?

$30k/yr from teacher retirement, she started drawing last year at age 52. No automatic COLA, state legislature must approve them, not something to count on. It is set up for 100% survivor benefit for me if she goes first. So how to treat it as a currently invested/banked equivalent present amount i...
by Admiral
Thu May 16, 2019 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mutual Funds vs Individual Stock Basic Question
Replies: 5
Views: 289

Re: Mutual Funds vs Individual Stock Basic Question

If you want immediate pricing like stocks, use an ETF, not a mutual fund.
by Admiral
Thu May 16, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

On a related note, many are quick to dismiss something like the Great Depression ever occurring again. While I tend to be an optimistic person, and I'm certainly an aggressive investor, I cannot see how people are so quick to dismiss the mere possibility of such an event. Depending on one's age, th...
by Admiral
Thu May 16, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

On a related note, many are quick to dismiss something like the Great Depression ever occurring again. While I tend to be an optimistic person, and I'm certainly an aggressive investor, I cannot see how people are so quick to dismiss the mere possibility of such an event. Depending on one's age, th...
by Admiral
Thu May 16, 2019 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

Yes. That is exactly what I would say. 30-40 years? In a row? That has never happened in the history of the stock market (which itself is only about 90 years old). Stocks were traded on the New York Stock Exchange as far back as 1817, that's more than 200 years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ne...
by Admiral
Thu May 16, 2019 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

On a related note, many are quick to dismiss something like the Great Depression ever occurring again. While I tend to be an optimistic person, and I'm certainly an aggressive investor, I cannot see how people are so quick to dismiss the mere possibility of such an event. Depending on one's age, th...
by Admiral
Wed May 15, 2019 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

Not at all. Stocks may simply be overpriced today, and return to less elevated PEs; the ratio of corporate profits to GDP could return to the historic mean; or interest rates could return to normal levels. What do you consider "normal levels"? The long term effective fed fund rate is 4.8%. If (as a...
by Admiral
Wed May 15, 2019 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

this can't happen without some serious societal mayhem.. for example government pensions would go bankrupt and it would even mean total economic collapse, no productive output in the economy for decades?... I don't plan for it since to me it's too miniscule of a possibility to even consider. Not at...
by Admiral
Wed May 15, 2019 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

this can't happen without some serious societal mayhem.. for example government pensions would go bankrupt and it would even mean total economic collapse, no productive output in the economy for decades?... I don't plan for it since to me it's too miniscule of a possibility to even consider. Not at...
by Admiral
Tue May 14, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10846
Views: 1892946

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Haha, reduction in value meets loss(kettle meets pot kind of thing). Fancy way of saying to reduce hurt feelings. I say a loss is a loss and get over it. If I buy my house for 100k, and the next year its market value is $500k, and the year after that it's market value is $400k, have I lost $100k? B...
by Admiral
Tue May 14, 2019 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10846
Views: 1892946

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Haha, reduction in value meets loss(kettle meets pot kind of thing). Fancy way of saying to reduce hurt feelings. I say a loss is a loss and get over it. If I buy my house for 100k, and the next year its market value is $500k, and the year after that it's market value is $400k, have I lost $100k? B...
by Admiral
Tue May 14, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10846
Views: 1892946

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I lost close to $40,000 today. Somehow it doesn't feel like a beautiful day to me. Because you sold? If not, you lost nothing. This may make you feel better, but it was a real loss. Just like someone who has invested for 25 years and has a $1M in gains truly has made a $1M, even if they haven't sol...
by Admiral
Tue May 14, 2019 9:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

Totally agree. IMHO once you have "enough" you should consider making the transition from a Return Maximizer to a Risk Manager. "Enough" is unknown, though. I can't say with any precision how much my wife and I will need/want for the rest of our lives without having knowledge of the future. I can c...
by Admiral
Tue May 14, 2019 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

+1 Ferri: Wisdom Of 60/40 Portfolios Timeless https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/ferri-wisdom-6040-portfolios-timeless?nopaging=1 "Retirees and those almost retired shouldn’t care what their highest level of risk tolerance is because they shouldn’t be investing anywhere near it. The...
by Admiral
Tue May 14, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

This is one reason folks like Rick Ferri promote 30/70 AA's for retirees. +1 Ferri: Wisdom Of 60/40 Portfolios Timeless https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/ferri-wisdom-6040-portfolios-timeless?nopaging=1 "Retirees and those almost retired shouldn’t care what their highest level of r...
by Admiral
Tue May 14, 2019 7:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

This is one reason folks like Rick Ferri promote 30/70 AA's for retirees. +1 Ferri: Wisdom Of 60/40 Portfolios Timeless https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/ferri-wisdom-6040-portfolios-timeless?nopaging=1 "Retirees and those almost retired shouldn’t care what their highest level of r...
by Admiral
Tue May 14, 2019 6:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

From everything I can tell for the BH philosophy to work you have to believe over the long term stocks will move from lower left to upper right. That said it is very common in threads to see a post that disputes this as a valid assumption and cites non-US examples like Japan, Argentina, Venezuela a...
by Admiral
Mon May 13, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

If one worries about the stock market returning sub 0 for decades then one should convert everything they own to a SPIA. As for me, I keep 10 years of expenses in bonds, CDs, and money market; and the rest is in stock. I base my future on available data which show market declines have never exceede...
by Admiral
Mon May 13, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10846
Views: 1892946

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

what a beautiful day. I lost close to $40,000 today. Somehow it doesn't feel like a beautiful day to me. Because you sold? If not, you lost nothing. This may make you feel better, but it was a real loss. Just like someone who has invested for 25 years and has a $1M in gains truly has made a $1M, ev...
by Admiral
Mon May 13, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10846
Views: 1892946

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

michaeljmroger wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 12:57 pm
TomCat96 wrote:
Mon May 13, 2019 12:34 pm
what a beautiful day.
I lost close to $40,000 today. Somehow it doesn't feel like a beautiful day to me.
Because you sold? If not, you lost nothing.
by Admiral
Mon May 13, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10846
Views: 1892946

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

<snip> My 30/70 securities AA is predicated on the self-belief that, on a day like today, I'd be in full panic mode and hitting the "Sell" button. But instead, I'm wishing I had dry powder to "buy the dip". I'm seeing a buy signal, instead of a panic button. If by 30/70 you mean that 70% of portfol...
by Admiral
Mon May 13, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

If stocks return nothing for decades , most likely the entire worldwide economic system has collapsed. So I'd have go with No. U.S. Stocks returned basically nothing for 16 years from 1966-1982. That's a pretty long time. So one should be prepared for it. So the litmus test for stock returns should...
by Admiral
Mon May 13, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

It seems highly unlikely that BOTH stocks AND bonds would be negative for any significant length of time. Short periods, yes, it's possible... anything is possible. A slightly more realistic worst-case would be a crash, a long period of stocks static or giving single-digit returns, and low bond yiel...
by Admiral
Mon May 13, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

If they earn 0%, yes - will be just fine. If they decline, well, it depends on how much. For retirement funding, we are supplying enough in principal to sustain in retirement. Any gains from the market just make things more comfortable. It depends. If SS is eliminated,, I would be screwed. If SS is...
by Admiral
Mon May 13, 2019 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

If they earn 0%, yes - will be just fine. If they decline, well, it depends on how much. For retirement funding, we are supplying enough in principal to sustain in retirement. Any gains from the market just make things more comfortable. It depends. If SS is eliminated,, I would be screwed. If SS is...
by Admiral
Mon May 13, 2019 10:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?
Replies: 180
Views: 10313

Re: Does your retirement plan work if stocks are flat or in decline for decades?

My plan will work with an average annual portfolio return of -.6% for the next 40 years WITH an assumed substantial inheritance in 20 years.

Without that, it will work with an average annual portfolio return of -.2% SORRY that should read +.2% for the same time period.
by Admiral
Mon May 13, 2019 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage or Pay Cash
Replies: 21
Views: 2062

Re: Mortgage or Pay Cash

He’s not working. He wants to take SS early because his dad died at age 69 and he does not expect a long lifespan for himself. New house has no HOA. Property taxes $7,000. Insurance is $1,100. Water/trash/sewer is $80. It’s a new home, so repairs are almost nonexistent and the only maintenance is s...
by Admiral
Mon May 13, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Internet speed recommendation
Replies: 26
Views: 1534

Re: Internet speed recommendation

Hi, I'm currently on Comcast 150mpbs plan with just 10 channels (I never use cable). I was paying $60 a month and my promotion is up and now the price will go up. If I go with the 60mpbs plan, it's $65 a month and if I go with 150mbps, it's $75 a month. My usage is mostly Netflix/Hulu with 1 device...
by Admiral
Mon May 13, 2019 9:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage or Pay Cash
Replies: 21
Views: 2062

Re: Mortgage or Pay Cash

This is why I love this forum. So many more options to consider. - He is single. - His expenses are low: $20,000/year not including housing. - His taxable account has some pretty substantial LT capital gains, but I’ll need to verify Thanks everyone Is he currently working and if so, when does he pl...
by Admiral
Sun May 12, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage or Pay Cash
Replies: 21
Views: 2062

Re: Mortgage or Pay Cash

In my view there is no way to give good advice w/o knowing his expenses. That $2k/mo could cover 10% or 80%. Is he working? Probably not if he's going to collect SS at 60. If he needs to take SS at 60, that tells me his fairly substantial assets are not covering his living expenses. That's a red fla...
by Admiral
Sun May 12, 2019 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Waiting out the housing market...? No housing that fits our budget.
Replies: 12
Views: 1416

Re: Waiting out the housing market...? No housing that fits our budget.

Sometimes it helps to take an historical perspective. As little as a hundred years ago, most people rented. Only folks living on family land, or the wealthy, owned their property. Then certain forces were brought to bear on the American public (government tax incentives, real estate industry, etc.)...
by Admiral
Sun May 12, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Waiting out the housing market...? No housing that fits our budget.
Replies: 12
Views: 1416

Re: Waiting out the housing market...? No housing that fits our budget.

Sometimes it helps to take an historical perspective. As little as a hundred years ago, most people rented. Only folks living on family land, or the wealthy, owned their property. Then certain forces were brought to bear on the American public (government tax incentives, real estate industry, etc.)...
by Admiral
Sun May 12, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Waiting out the housing market...? No housing that fits our budget.
Replies: 12
Views: 1416

Re: Waiting out the housing market...? No housing that fits our budget.

It’s a stretch to say you follow Ramsey’s advice given monthly car payments of $590 . . . +1. That did jump out at me. Do you have two cars? Spouse working/not working? That strikes me as very high for a single car for someone with your income and family expenses. A car with a $200 monthly payment ...
by Admiral
Fri May 10, 2019 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 17 of our 18 equity-focused American Funds have delivered index-beating lifetime results.
Replies: 34
Views: 3008

Re: 17 of our 18 equity-focused American Funds have delivered index-beating lifetime results.

This thread brings to mind the old saw:

There may be funds that can/will beat indexing. But how will you be able to identify them in advance?

Answer: you can't.
by Admiral
Fri May 10, 2019 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: car loans high rates?
Replies: 9
Views: 486

Re: car loans high rates?

Save up up and pay cash. Can't comment on those cars and prices w/o knowing history but I'd probably not buy a 2011 just to save a few thousand. In general, get a car coming off lease with as few miles are you can reasonably afford, AND get the repair/maintenance history from the dealer before you m...