Search found 136 matches
- Fri Feb 09, 2024 5:37 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: New article casting doubt on index investing
- Replies: 51
- Views: 6533
Re: New article casting doubt on index investing
Is US market cap really up to 70%? How does that compare with the international allocation of VT or target date funds?
- Mon Dec 18, 2023 9:28 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Is it safe to use TEMU website for shopping? Not the phone app
- Replies: 23
- Views: 13836
Re: Is it safe to use TEMU website for shopping? Not the phone app
Nowadays, Amazon is just a glorified middle man between cheap overseas manufacturing and the consumer. Haven't you noticed all the alphabet soup non-brands (JOYMOOP, EJEJY, etc)? Temu (and Shien, for example), are skipping the middle man opening up more convenient direct access to these manufacturers to consumers. Prices are dirt-cheap. Product quality is what you'd expect for cheaply manufactured items, and often identical to the stuff on Amazon -- but not always. Quality is hit or miss. If it's a commodity item where quality doesn't matter a ton (LED light strips, laptop bag, hospital badge holder, etc), then I find it's usually worth the gamble to get it cheap on Temu.
- Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:31 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: BOXX ETF: Help Me Understand
- Replies: 40
- Views: 6137
Re: BOXX ETF: Help Me Understand
If you look at the 1Y chart on this page (make sure you click the 1Y chart), it sure looks like they’re making regular distributions.CletusCaddy wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:08 pmIt increases the share price instead of distributing anything. Perfect for high earners who would otherwise get hit with ~50% tax rates on money market, HYSA, etc…muffins14 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 05, 2023 11:03 pmWhat does it do?
https://money.usnews.com/funds/etfs/ult ... x-etf/boxx
- Mon Dec 04, 2023 2:03 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Private equity being prioritized by ultra wealthy, but is that the right allocation for a couple w a net worth of 1.5m?
- Replies: 35
- Views: 6276
Re: Private equity being prioritized by ultra wealthy, but is that the right allocation for a couple w a net worth of 1.
Private equity is still a small fraction of the investable market, and doesn't outperform on a risk adjusted basis, according to Illmanen (AQR guy) in his book "Investing Amid Low Expected Returns".
- Sat Nov 25, 2023 11:52 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Does early retirement change asset location strategy?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 3063
Re: Does early retirement change asset location strategy?
This is a very sensible approach and useful way to look at it. At the end of the day, your portfolio is $X lighter in bonds and $X dollars are in your taxable account ready to be spent. This is the crux of my concern. i’m not sure you would have the same dollars in your taxable account between the two scenarios. While rebalancing in the IRA after selling stocks in taxable would certainly simulate selling bonds in the first place, it wouldn’t mitigate the risk of depleting the taxable account prematurely because of the stock crash. And depleting the taxable account for an early retiree is a big problem, since the other accounts aren’t available for ~10 years (other than some of the exceptions mention in this thread) without taking a 10% hai...
- Sat Nov 25, 2023 6:34 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Does early retirement change asset location strategy?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 3063
Does early retirement change asset location strategy?
How does early retirement affect decisions around asset location? Tax efficiency calls for bonds in tax-deferred accounts and stocks in Roth & taxable accounts. This assumes an investor is indifferent about asset location other than for those tax considerations. But, if I retire at an age prior to when I can take penalty-free distributions from 401ks (assume 10 years before 59.5), then I'll be drawing down my taxable account first. In other words, the taxable account has a shorter investment horizon than the tax-deferred accounts. It effectively represents 100% of the retirement nest-egg for the first 10 years of retirement. Should this lead an investor to have a less aggressive allocation in the taxable account, knowing that they will ...
- Sun Nov 05, 2023 11:28 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: How to withdraw principal amount from my 3 fund portfolio at Vanguard?
- Replies: 26
- Views: 3072
Re: How to withdraw principal amount from my 3 fund portfolio at Vanguard?
Taxable funds don't let you sell principle vs gains. They do let you sell specific shares, though. So you'd want to sell shares that have the lowest gains (or highest losses) to minimize your tax. If the amount was a lump-sum investment, it's likely that all the shares have the same gain or loss.
- Thu Sep 14, 2023 7:31 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Private Equity Groups and Total Stock Market
- Replies: 46
- Views: 4757
Re: Private Equity Groups and Total Stock Market
In his awesome book “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns,” Antti Ilmanen argues that private equity does not outperform public equity, and their performance is perfectly explained by well publicized and publicly available factors (value, momentum, profitability, etc). In fact, there is data indicating that an illiquidity discount actually exists in private equity, not an illiquidity premium. The argument is that investors pay for the privilege of not having the returns marked to market, which causes an artificial smoothing of private equity returns—something investors seem willing to pay for.
- Wed Jul 05, 2023 1:43 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Drastic Changes in Roth IRA Investments
- Replies: 41
- Views: 3817
Re: Drastic Changes in Roth IRA Investments
If the purported explanations for those alternative premia are true, then it might work out. If the alternative premia are artifacts of data mining, then it probably won’t work out. If it does work out, it could still lag the market for multiple decades. If you have the conviction to stay the course with your tilt despite long under-performance, then you may be able to collect the premium. If you think you will likely bail out, then you will do worse off than staying with market-weighted funds. So, I would carefully ask yourself whether you believe in those alternative premia enough to psychologically sustain your conviction, despite possible under performance. For example, would you be tempted to sell a losing tilt if someone argued that t...
- Mon May 29, 2023 8:51 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Sell bond funds to TLH, then buy CD's?
- Replies: 21
- Views: 1524
Re: Sell bond funds to TLH, then buy CD's?
You could. Although you’d run the risk of missing a bond rally if interest rates fall. For your long-dated bonds especially. Maybe treat the two decisions independently. Should you tax loss harvest? Should you re-buy a similar bond fund, or exit bonds for CDs?
Personally, unless I needed to cash in a portion of my fixed income holdings in a year, I probably wouldn’t chase yield in short term investments. If interest rates fall, and the CD rate is no longer attractive when it’s time to roll over, then you’ll be buying back into those same bonds, which would now have a higher price than when you sold.
Personally, unless I needed to cash in a portion of my fixed income holdings in a year, I probably wouldn’t chase yield in short term investments. If interest rates fall, and the CD rate is no longer attractive when it’s time to roll over, then you’ll be buying back into those same bonds, which would now have a higher price than when you sold.
- Mon Apr 03, 2023 8:52 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Anyone go case-less with their iPhone?
- Replies: 78
- Views: 6513
Re: Anyone go case-less with their iPhone?
No case on my iPhone 14 Pro Max. I don’t like the added bulk or diminished aesthetics. I do pay for Apple Care for peace of mind. Incidentally, I’ve dropped it a decent amount with no damage.
- Sat Apr 01, 2023 2:17 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Best resources for the decumulation stage?
- Replies: 13
- Views: 1616
Best resources for the decumulation stage?
I feel like my Bogleheads education has put me in the right place for accumulation. But, I feel like decumulation is a phase fraught with tax traps, sequence of return considerations, health care, etc. not to mention, the FIRE angle, when decumulation occurs prior to age 59.5. Would you recommend any standard-bearer tomes or other authoritative resources to start reading about this?
- Thu Mar 02, 2023 3:58 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: One AA for all holdings = bad advice?
- Replies: 26
- Views: 2339
Re: One AA for all holdings = bad advice?
What about an early retiree prior to age 59 1/2? Their taxable brokerage and savings accounts might be the only source of retirement income they can tap prior to “retirement age.” The taxable account might have a completely different horizon compared to the 401k, since only a slice of their portfolio will be accessible to the early retiree. In that scenario, there’s an argument to concentrate some of the less aggressive components of the overall AA into the brokerage account. (The overall AA stays the same, but the first and second buckets to tap may have different AAs)
- Mon Feb 27, 2023 6:18 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: What are your favorite AutoHotkey scripts?
- Replies: 3
- Views: 599
Re: What are your favorite AutoHotkey scripts?
I have some scripts that map certain buttons (and combinations of buttons!) on my gaming mouse to keyboard strikes. This lets me be completely mouse-driven on my workstation. (I’m a radiologist, so normally I have to use a mouse, keyboard, and a multi-button dictaphone in the course of my work).
- Mon Jan 02, 2023 7:20 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why I Bonds and TIPS?
- Replies: 23
- Views: 2809
Re: Why I Bonds and TIPS?
Equities can hedge inflation on the longest terms, perhaps longer than a retiree, or a soon retiree is comfortable with. In that case, only real dollar denominated instruments can not only hedge but eliminate the inflation factor.
- Sat Dec 03, 2022 6:32 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What's wrong with not staying the course - and buying bonds now?
- Replies: 72
- Views: 11729
Re: What's wrong with not staying the course - and buying bonds now?
The assumption that macro trends aren’t already priced in before you have a thought experiment is a fallacy, to sum it up in a sentence.
That said, hopping into a risk free bond investment like TIPS when real yields are high isn’t market timing, eg
That said, hopping into a risk free bond investment like TIPS when real yields are high isn’t market timing, eg
- Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:46 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: New Avantis worldwide ETF with value tilt
- Replies: 793
- Views: 112623
Re: New Avantis worldwide ETF with value tilt
Does anyone have a sense on what the dividend yield is expected to be for this fund? Morning Star should have this information. Last time I checked the yield was higher than average, but this is almost certainly coincidence since dividends are irrelevant to Total return I doubt Avantis would deliberately favor them. Correct, their dividend yield per the Portfolio tab on Morningstar is 3.10%. This is presumably the weighted average dividend yield of the underlying funds, which one could also lookup and weight as AVGE does. Agreed relative to the yield; my guess is it's a product of tilting to Value, not a concerted effort to target dividend stocks. The dividend yield might also reflect the US/international split. International equity indice...
- Sun Oct 30, 2022 9:42 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: New Avantis worldwide ETF with value tilt
- Replies: 793
- Views: 112623
Re: New Avantis worldwide ETF with value tilt
Theoretically, if you have a portfolio with a mixture of uncorrelated risk premia, then the portfolio overall can be less risky than the risky individual components.
This is the conceit of multi-factor funds.
This is the conceit of multi-factor funds.
- Sun Oct 30, 2022 9:36 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns
- Replies: 18
- Views: 1807
Re: The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns
Earnings slowdown combined with high valuations means lower expected returns for stocks.
- Fri Oct 28, 2022 8:17 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
- Replies: 760
- Views: 149465
Re: Good Modern Science Fiction
The Three Body Problem.
The first of a trilogy. Quite amazing.
The first of a trilogy. Quite amazing.
- Wed Oct 26, 2022 1:56 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Defined benefits plan. What funds should I choose to approximate a 3% return
- Replies: 2
- Views: 315
Re: Defined benefits plan. What funds should I choose to approximate a 3% return
Long treasuries get you close to that expected return (assuming your withdrawal horizon is > 10 years), but your year-to-year returns could be volatile.
Reasonable ex-ante return projections (in real terms, not nominal) are 4% for US Equity, 6% for Intl Equity, and whatever bonds are yielding right now. You can make a portfolio out of these components, but year-to-year will be volatile.
Reasonable ex-ante return projections (in real terms, not nominal) are 4% for US Equity, 6% for Intl Equity, and whatever bonds are yielding right now. You can make a portfolio out of these components, but year-to-year will be volatile.
- Sat Oct 15, 2022 11:15 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Best likely return in the short term 3-5yrs
- Replies: 4
- Views: 664
Re: Best likely return in the short term 3-5yrs
I-Bonds sounds like what you're looking for. They're liquid after 1 year, and you have a guaranteed return that cancels out inflation. On the risk-reward balance, it's better than any nominal fixed-income out there. TIPS are also inflation protected, and currently offer a better expected return, but you bear interest rate risk with TIPS.
$10,000 limit with I-Bonds, unless you have a spouse or another entity (LLC, Trust) to invest alongside.
$10,000 limit with I-Bonds, unless you have a spouse or another entity (LLC, Trust) to invest alongside.
- Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:14 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: 60/40 vs. Golden Butterfly for Retirement
- Replies: 47
- Views: 7812
Re: 60/40 vs. Golden Butterfly for Retirement
I've always been so intrigued by the Golden Butterfly Portfolio. Who wouldn't, with decent returns and excellent smoothness? My trouble is with two core assumptions in the portfolio, which are based on historical results: 1) There is a small cap value premium. 2) Gold is a worthy asset because it's an uncorrelated inflation hedge and a safe haven in times of distress. Hypothesis 1 is debated a lot here. If the small cap premium is overgrazed, then is that a good tilt, given the possible tracking error versus cap-weighted market funds? Hypothesis 2 is failing its stress test right now. In a time of inflation and distress, gold is *not* performing the way you'd hope. Personally, I'd have trouble sticking with a portfolio of only 40% equities,...
- Sat Aug 20, 2022 9:22 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: IBonds vs taxable brokerage investment in 30s
- Replies: 8
- Views: 1501
Re: IBonds vs taxable brokerage investment in 30s
I don’t think I would consider “I-Bonds” as a bucket, like a 401k or a brokerage account. I would consider it as an asset class, like “stock” or “treasury bond.”
If your asset allocation calls for you to hold bonds, then I think I Bonds are a great call for some of your bonds. Inflation protection, “callable” since you can withdraw after 1 year, and no principal risk.
If your asset allocation calls for you to hold bonds, then I think I Bonds are a great call for some of your bonds. Inflation protection, “callable” since you can withdraw after 1 year, and no principal risk.
- Tue Jul 26, 2022 9:58 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Bonds in tax-advantaged even if brokerage is large?
- Replies: 9
- Views: 966
Re: Bonds in tax-advantaged even if brokerage is large?
Yes, this is a good point I have considered as well. If you need to withdraw from accounts in a specific sequence, then their investment horizon could be quite different. (e.g. early retirement before age 59.5, need to tap taxable accounts first).
- Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:00 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What is your age and asset allocation ?
- Replies: 1156
- Views: 150819
Re: What is your asset allocation and age?
Age 40. I'm currently 73%-27%. My written investment plan is to use Vanguard Target 2035 in tax-deferred and Roth, and to mirror that asset allocation in taxable. 10% of my equity allocation is in private real estate syndications.
- Tue Jun 14, 2022 6:01 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Risk parity portfolio with stock/bond/REIT/Gold simulation
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1089
Re: Risk parity portfolio with stock/bond/REIT/Gold simulation
When backtests have infinite permutations of possible portfolios, and when they have infinite choices of time interval, there are more than enough degrees of freedom to find many "silver bullets." At some point, it becomes an exercise in data mining and overfitting. It says a lot about what happened before, but much less about what should happen going forward.
- Fri Jun 03, 2022 8:43 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Prenup or Domestic Asset Protection trust or both?
- Replies: 53
- Views: 5980
Re: Prenup or Domestic Asset Protection trust or both?
I'm sure you saw it coming but...
You will definitely want to take any advice from this forum with a huge grain of salt, and consult with an experienced debtor-creditor lawyer in your state. When it comes to the highest tiers of asset protection, when you are relying on trust code, statutes and case law, and trying to predict what a judge would decide, you just need an expert. Especially when dealing with a super-creditor like a spouse or the IRS.
You will definitely want to take any advice from this forum with a huge grain of salt, and consult with an experienced debtor-creditor lawyer in your state. When it comes to the highest tiers of asset protection, when you are relying on trust code, statutes and case law, and trying to predict what a judge would decide, you just need an expert. Especially when dealing with a super-creditor like a spouse or the IRS.
- Sun May 29, 2022 2:16 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Do you include real estate in your asset allocation?
- Replies: 82
- Views: 6898
Re: Do you include real estate in your asset allocation?
Personally, I don’t count my residence in my investment portfolio, but I count it in my net worth.
I do have some private real estate syndication investments, which I count as part of my equity allocation in my investment portfolio, for the purposes of asset allocation.
I do have some private real estate syndication investments, which I count as part of my equity allocation in my investment portfolio, for the purposes of asset allocation.
- Sat May 28, 2022 1:31 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: FIRE for physician
- Replies: 42
- Views: 6912
Re: FIRE for physician
White Coat Investor has a new asset protection book.
Regarding asset protection trusts — if this is the main line of defense in your plan, just make sure your state is friendly to these. For example, if you set up the trust in a state that allows domestic asset protection trusts, but you live and practice in a different state that doesn’t allow them, your home court would likely be able to pierce the trust.
Regarding asset protection trusts — if this is the main line of defense in your plan, just make sure your state is friendly to these. For example, if you set up the trust in a state that allows domestic asset protection trusts, but you live and practice in a different state that doesn’t allow them, your home court would likely be able to pierce the trust.
- Wed May 25, 2022 12:26 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Lessons from this crash
- Replies: 290
- Views: 34142
Re: Lessons from this crash
Lesson from a high inflation regime:
I Bonds are close to a free lunch, subject to the purchase limits. No principle risk, guaranteed high nominal return during inflation, easy entry and exit. One can buy a slug of I Bonds when rates are good, with the knowledge that they can exit the holding with a minimum penalty if/when the variable rates become unattractive.
I Bonds are close to a free lunch, subject to the purchase limits. No principle risk, guaranteed high nominal return during inflation, easy entry and exit. One can buy a slug of I Bonds when rates are good, with the knowledge that they can exit the holding with a minimum penalty if/when the variable rates become unattractive.
- Wed May 25, 2022 7:09 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Any thoughts regarding websites that provide consensus forecasts?
- Replies: 2
- Views: 347
Re: Any thoughts regarding websites that provide consensus forecasts?
The current market price is exactly a consensus forecast, polling the entire market.
- Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Do any high income earners here NOT invest in municipal bonds?
- Replies: 43
- Views: 9668
- Sun Jan 16, 2022 4:31 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)
- Replies: 6651
- Views: 1204026
Re: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)
Does the 3 month interest redemption penalty subtract the first 3 months of interest, or the most recent 3 months of interest?
The behavior of making interest accrual invisible for the first 3 months suggests that it’s that first 3 months of interest. But, that treatment seems less intuitive to me.
The behavior of making interest accrual invisible for the first 3 months suggests that it’s that first 3 months of interest. But, that treatment seems less intuitive to me.
- Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:33 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Which state's asset protection laws apply to brokerage accounts?
- Replies: 6
- Views: 812
Re: Which state's asset protection laws apply to brokerage accounts?
There’s one piece of case law where the judge applied the laws of the state where the bank was located, not where the person resided. In such cases, there is not a bright line determination that you can rely on. It might simply be up to the judges interpretation. But here is one example relevant to your question: Another trap for the unwary exists for people who have established bank or brokerage accounts with financial institutions located outside of Florida. For example, in the bankruptcy case of In re Gillette, 248 B.R. 845 (Bankr. M.D. Fla. 1999), Mr. and Mrs. Gillette, a married couple who lived in California, deposited money in a short term bond fund and a separate money market account with a financial institution located in Wisconsin...
- Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:01 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Swap my Bond funds for iBonds?
- Replies: 36
- Views: 4392
Re: Swap my Bond funds for iBonds?
Series I Bonds are a free lunch, since you can buy a higher coupon (7%) without a higher face value. A marketable bond yielding 7% nominal would be priced far above face value right now.
Yes, the coupon will reset with inflation every 6 months, but you can liquidate with minimal penalty after 1 year.
Yes, the coupon will reset with inflation every 6 months, but you can liquidate with minimal penalty after 1 year.
- Thu Dec 30, 2021 7:13 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is traditional 60/40 equities/bonds model outdated?
- Replies: 141
- Views: 12170
Re: Is traditional 60/40 equities/bonds model outdated?
Is this mathematically true? I’m not too experienced with options. Is the strategy to buy some out of the money puts as insurance?rockstar wrote: ↑Wed Dec 29, 2021 2:18 pm It's true. Investment grade bonds don't keep up with inflation. As for protection during a downturn, this is hit or miss. Sometimes bonds are negatively correlated. Sometime they're not.
If you want to pay for protection for a downturn, then options make more sense than bonds right now.
- Thu Dec 30, 2021 7:07 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Favorite Purchases of 2021?
- Replies: 203
- Views: 19136
Re: Favorite Purchases of 2021?
Rollerblades (Macroblade 110s) — like it’s the 90’s, baby
Xbox Series X — GamePass is like Netflix for games.
Kindle Oasis — jump started my new hobby of reading time management and productivity stuff. Interestingly, this conflicts directly with purchase #2.
Sony noise cancelling earbuds — travel, work and leisure; these things are great
Oru Kayak Bay ST — a kayak that folds up into a big briefcase
Knackpack travel backpack — this thing is my work bag and my 4-days-or-less 1-bag for travel.
Series I Bonds — I’m all for simplicity, but the yield differential over BND was enough to jump in.
Xbox Series X — GamePass is like Netflix for games.
Kindle Oasis — jump started my new hobby of reading time management and productivity stuff. Interestingly, this conflicts directly with purchase #2.
Sony noise cancelling earbuds — travel, work and leisure; these things are great
Oru Kayak Bay ST — a kayak that folds up into a big briefcase
Knackpack travel backpack — this thing is my work bag and my 4-days-or-less 1-bag for travel.
Series I Bonds — I’m all for simplicity, but the yield differential over BND was enough to jump in.
- Sat Dec 18, 2021 3:58 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Willing to share your Taxable Portfolio?
- Replies: 381
- Views: 57297
Re: Willing to share your Taxable Portfolio?
45% VTI (Total Stock Market)
20% VXUS (Total International)
25% MUB (Muni Bonds)
10% Real Estate syndications
And as of this year, some I-Bonds
20% VXUS (Total International)
25% MUB (Muni Bonds)
10% Real Estate syndications
And as of this year, some I-Bonds
- Wed Dec 01, 2021 10:37 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: With today's low interest rate environment is it reasonable to hold cash in one's portfolio allocation instead of bonds?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 1730
Re: With today's low interest rate environment is it reasonable to hold cash in one's portfolio allocation instead of bo
As long as the bond duration is longer than your investment horizon, wouldn’t bonds be better than cash?
- Wed Nov 24, 2021 11:56 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Asset Allocation Ideas Outdated?
- Replies: 57
- Views: 7019
Re: Asset Allocation Ideas Outdated?
What is the alternative to bonds? Cash with zero yield? 100% stocks?
- Thu Nov 18, 2021 1:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Hi! I'm high inflation. Nice to meet you.
- Replies: 980
- Views: 110514
Re: Hi! I'm high inflation. Nice to meet you.
Regarding active portfolio changes in response to inflation, aren’t Series I Bonds a free lunch, if one is going to hold bonds at all? With a minimal penalty to exit a position in I Bonds, it’s very easy to revert if inflation goes away.
I maxed out I Bonds in my and my wife’s account and in a trust account this year in response to inflation. Sure beats the yield on my Muni and Total Bond ETFs. And they’re risk free.
I think it’s a rational move when the market is pricing bonds at negative real yields.
I maxed out I Bonds in my and my wife’s account and in a trust account this year in response to inflation. Sure beats the yield on my Muni and Total Bond ETFs. And they’re risk free.
I think it’s a rational move when the market is pricing bonds at negative real yields.
- Wed Sep 01, 2021 8:37 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Bonds are keeping up in 2021: why the fear
- Replies: 56
- Views: 12258
Re: Bonds are keeping up in 2021: why the fear
Bonds may not have good real return, but are they a "terrible" investment on a risk-adjusted basis? They yield better than cash and are less volatile than stocks. What's the alternative? 100% stocks?
- Wed Jul 28, 2021 9:31 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: What was your best quality of life improvement for $1000?
- Replies: 193
- Views: 30644
- Fri Jul 23, 2021 8:28 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Where do bonds and REITs and dividends go? Taxable, tax deferred, or no tax accounts?
- Replies: 19
- Views: 1578
Re: Where do bonds and REITs and dividends go? Taxable, tax deferred, or no tax accounts?
The “dogma” is that bonds go in tax-deferred and stocks in taxable. However, now dividend yields for stocks are higher than bond yields. Not to mention all the capital gains. So, it seems to me that the dogma is exactly backwards in our new secular era of low bond yields.
- Wed Jul 21, 2021 5:03 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Plan to change the way you tip when the minimum wage goes to $15 per hour?
- Replies: 17
- Views: 1363
Re: Plan to change the way you tip when the minimum wage goes to $15 per hour?
No. Please keep tipping service workers.
- Sun Jun 27, 2021 2:34 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why are you invested (mainly) in US stocks when all long term forecasts are in favour of ex-US?
- Replies: 221
- Views: 22248
Re: Why are you invested (mainly) in US stocks when all long term forecasts are in favour of ex-US?
Recency bias. Home bias. Assertions that valuation driven forecasts might not be reliable. Mostly recency bias, probably.
- Mon May 31, 2021 10:08 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Is investing akin to free money? Any risks?
- Replies: 28
- Views: 3674
Re: Is investing akin to free money? Any risks?
You’re compensated for the use of your capital, and the risk of loss. But on your question regarding passive work, that’s a good point. Part of the economic malaise right now is that most of the recovery is in passive income, while income from work is flat. That tends to benefit the investor class (“us”) rather than the people truly on the bubble.
- Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:02 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Cold feet before dumping 25K into crowdfunding real estate?
- Replies: 52
- Views: 9882
Re: Cold feet before dumping 25K into crowdfunding real estate?
I read Brian Burke’s book The Hands Off Investor, which teaches you how to vet sponsors, syndications and properties. The book convinced me that vetting the sponsor is the whole ballgame. There are enough tricks a sponsor can pull with underwriting that it would take a very thorough and savvy investor to detect by doing arm’s length due diligence on a property. Unless you’re an expert, better to vet the sponsor’s track record and trust that they themselves are doing proper due diligence.
- Mon Mar 15, 2021 9:43 am
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: 2019 tax return in processing limbo, can’t get a mortgage
- Replies: 5
- Views: 626
Re: 2019 tax return in processing limbo, can’t get a mortgage
Bumping for the day crew