Search found 6240 matches

by randomguy
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why Purchase an Automobile using Premium Gasoline?
Replies: 59
Views: 1938

Re: Why Purchase an Automobile using Premium Gasoline?

How many consider the type of gasoline an automobile uses when purchasing? Automobiles using regular, unleaded gasoline typically, I think, get better mileage and have comparable torque and acceleration in my experience. What justifies the choice of significantly more expensive fuel other than simp...
by randomguy
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 8 reasons why pensions are [good]
Replies: 50
Views: 3204

Re: 8 reasons why pensions are [good]

You have a fund that isn't receiving enough money to support its spending habit, and it won't ever receive enough money. Does it matter why? We're straying far OT now (sorry), but it does matter very much to me. In any given year out of the last, say, 40(!) years, the size of the shortfall in adequ...
by randomguy
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 8 reasons why pensions are [good]
Replies: 50
Views: 3204

Re: 8 reasons why pensions are [good]

Most pensions mimic a loan no one ever intends to pay back. Sure you can pay everyone in perpetuity 80% of their 36-month highest average--that's amazing, what a deal. Well, it works only because you pass the buck. The funding ratios worsen, the unfunded liabilities balloon. Eventually the rents co...
by randomguy
Sat Oct 20, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pull kids from school for vacations?
Replies: 136
Views: 5266

Re: Pull kids from school for vacations?

We have never and will not pull children from school for vacations. It detracts from the commitment to education and sends a message that vacation has a higher "family value" then education. The only time we have allowed an unexcused absence for a child was one day when a university under considera...
by randomguy
Thu Oct 18, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"
Replies: 48
Views: 4443

Re: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"

Possibly. The reduced pay is, IMHO, more than compensated by the lifestyle. Yes (and at this point of life I would agree with you) but if most PhDs graduates felt the same way they would be taking academic jobs whenever possible and not leaving for higher paying industry jobs. I am being very simpl...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"
Replies: 48
Views: 4443

Re: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"

Now to some extent shortages of employees are a made up problem. Raise wages and those shortgages tend to disappear quickly. Partially so, but it's more difficult to fill shortages when it takes 4-5 years of post graduate work and living in poverty to get there, and then half of those who start the...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"
Replies: 48
Views: 4443

Re: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"

Now to some extent shortages of employees are a made up problem. Raise wages and those shortgages tend to disappear quickly. For the past 15 years or so I had a very difficult time filling advanced- and management-level statistician positions. We hired english-speaking immigrants and attracted peop...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To replace old Volvo
Replies: 35
Views: 1338

Re: To replace old Volvo

This may be a situation where a lease might be considered? Many threads on lease versus buy but in your case you will not be owning a car beyond ~5ish years so a 3-year lease now, then either buy the car or lease another one for another 3 years. Volvos often have very good lease deals so yeah it co...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much life insurance for cancer survivor? OR, can I even get insured?
Replies: 16
Views: 1258

Re: How much life insurance for cancer survivor? OR, can I even get insured?

I would be shopping for not less than $1 million. You have to also consider the likelihood of inflation over time that diminishes the cost of the policy over time but also diminishes the purchasing power of the face amount. But time also diminishes the need for a life insurance since your dependent...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bitcoin after death...some thoughts to consider
Replies: 10
Views: 2300

Re: Bitcoin after death...some thoughts to consider

So if I leave my heirs a 500m dollar bit coin wallet but don't give them the key, how is that treated for estate tax purposes? What if they wait 20 years until computer power increases enough to break the encryption?:)
by randomguy
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To replace old Volvo
Replies: 35
Views: 1338

Re: To replace old Volvo

Where is your local dealer with prices like that? Not here in New England I assume. First hit off the only NE zip code I have memorized. https://www.cars.com/vehicledetail/detail/747938855/overview/ 20.6k, 2016, AWD, 38k miles. Go to cars.com and see what the LIST prices for used s60 in your hood a...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"
Replies: 48
Views: 4443

Re: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"

it's going to put these colleges in a real crunch because the supply of new Ph.D.s can barely keep up with the existing turnover. Where have you heard this? My experience is the opposite. There are far more PhDs produced every year than could possibly find academic posts. There are 100s of applican...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To replace old Volvo
Replies: 35
Views: 1338

Re: To replace old Volvo

The dealer in my area charges $100 just to look at the car. The last time I went, they estimated a repair costing $2,500 and when I asked whether that would fix the problem the answer was "oh no, that will just show us what the main problem is"! So, of course, I understand that what they really wan...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To replace old Volvo
Replies: 35
Views: 1338

Re: To replace old Volvo

Many good cars out there. New and used. Let's say you put $2,000 in repairs into your car for the next 5 years. $10k. You could also buy a new $20k car (Toyota Corolla) or a $25k car (Camry or other). To me, those are both much more expensive than $10k in car repair bills. But, there does come a ti...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Corporate politics/culture
Replies: 43
Views: 3877

Re: Corporate politics/culture

Thanks everyone. I came to know a strange tidbit on the ceo change - outgoing ceo used to get a salary + bonus of 12+ million. New ceo will get salary of 900k, bonus upto 100%, long term bonus of 500%. This seems to be significantly lower than the old ceo. Probably just got 50 million in RSUs that ...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Kids not interested in money / allowance
Replies: 50
Views: 4830

Re: Kids not interested in money / allowance

She is endlessly broke and always needs more money. Same parents, totally different kids. What can you do? Thanks for the example. I highlighted the above, because from all the observations I have seen there seems to be a HUGE variations in how kids turn out despite what type of "nurturing" environ...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to stop putting money into an older vehicle
Replies: 88
Views: 5827

Re: When to stop putting money into an older vehicle

Thumb rule I use (no idea where I got it): If I think $1,000 buys me 10,000 miles before the next significant repair (exclude the usual consumables), it is worth it. I don't care about the car's trade-in value. The only question I ask of an older vehicle is "how far will it get me before I haul it ...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to stop putting money into an older vehicle
Replies: 88
Views: 5827

Re: When to stop putting money into an older vehicle

Thumb rule I use (no idea where I got it): If I think $1,000 buys me 10,000 miles before the next significant repair (exclude the usual consumables), it is worth it. I don't care about the car's trade-in value. The only question I ask of an older vehicle is "how far will it get me before I haul it ...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When to stop putting money into an older vehicle
Replies: 88
Views: 5827

Re: When to stop putting money into an older vehicle

First, I would not drive a 15 year old vehicle. There have been too many safety improvements in the intervening years. This! I would not drive a car that old, and would probably replace a vehicle that is say 10 or so years old with newer. I worry that even though the vehicle may be reliable I'll mi...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Not convinced with insurance
Replies: 45
Views: 3541

Re: Not convinced with insurance

We bike. You are thinking that's it's possible that I can get sued me being on a bicycle? We would rent a car when going on vacations. 500 usd per year to increase insurance in a car rental when traveling sounds like too much :( I remember this from a while back: https://www.runnersworld.com/news/a...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
Replies: 191
Views: 11012

Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

If I were ever to want to drop 75k on a car, I would demand more physical controls than a few steering wheel buttons. I can’t fathom flying down the freeway and having to take my eyes off the road to adjust the climate controls and audio settings. If you’re interested in electric and like Audi, it ...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kid already in 9th grade, too late to start 529?
Replies: 14
Views: 1671

Re: Kid already in 9th grade, too late to start 529?

The advantage of the 529 is that you won’t owe taxes on any earnings received on the money (once it is in the 529) if you use it for college expenses. But if you want to get higher earnings on the college money, you need to take more risk. There is nothing inherent to a 529 plan that will earn you ...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule question
Replies: 22
Views: 3106

Re: 4% rule question

Right, but why is this any reason to use a lower SWR when drawing from taxable? The math at this point excludes the different contribution amounts you would have made long ago to taxable v. tax-deferred. It is just how much you need in either account to safely retire. I would think you would need l...
by randomguy
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
Replies: 191
Views: 11012

Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

I am sorry but IMO you do not have enough money saved to justify spending that much for a car. If you were making say $300K and had savings of say $2M to $3M then I would say go for it. But you just are not that rich for a guy who is 45. Go buy a lower cost car and keep saving that $700 per month. ...
by randomguy
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5223

Re: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert

I can't wait for the next 3-5 year period where EM or international crushes the US stocks. Those threads will be entertaining:) It is easy when an asset is soaring to say that it is all you need. Getting that article published when the sector is underperforming is a lot harder:)
by randomguy
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule question
Replies: 22
Views: 3106

Re: 4% rule question

Right, but why is this any reason to use a lower SWR when drawing from taxable? The math at this point excludes the different contribution amounts you would have made long ago to taxable v. tax-deferred. It is just how much you need in either account to safely retire. I would think you would need l...
by randomguy
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5223

Re: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert

3) I continue to be in the strange position of being, seemingly, one of the few people who think that there's no evidence that international diversification has ever mattered much--never has helped much, never has hurt much. The 1966 retiree got about 10% more spenable money with international. I w...
by randomguy
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10360

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

... Keeping the money in other fixed income gets the advantage if you expect to pass younger and want to leave a larger estate. This is likely the least of my concerns. If my offspring desired an 8-figure inheritance rather than merely a 7-figure inheritance, they should have chosen different paren...
by randomguy
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule question
Replies: 22
Views: 3106

Re: 4% rule question

No the accounts would not have the same value after 30 years. Simple example. Imagine 4% SWR, and 8% return. 25% taxes. retirement= 1000 dollars + 80 bucks return -40 payout -10 in taxes = 1030 taxable = 1000 dollars + 80 bucks return - 20 in taxes - 40 payout = 1020 As I mentioned earlier, how do ...
by randomguy
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10360

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

...Is there any other product that will give you peaceful sleep? I think that's a key thing that gets missed when people try to compare and evaluate annuities to investments. An annuity is an insurance product, not an investment. Peace of mind has a value. I don't think I've seen any threads on her...
by randomguy
Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 208
Views: 16302

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

Why would I be wrong in my opinion that 2% is the max perpetual SWR for early retirement? I understand that there's a chance that I may accumulate significant assets over time. I'd rather do that than risk running out of money. Anyone else think this way? I would say that is more like the Min😁 Abou...
by randomguy
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
Replies: 191
Views: 11012

Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

100$ for food is per month obviously. I don't think our differential in spending with and without kid is more than that. 100$ for a meal is nothing, I can definitely eat a 2000$ at a 3 star restaurant but I cannot go there daily, they won't let me even if I wanted. So we have to eat at home and coo...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
Replies: 191
Views: 11012

Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

My question in all this discussion would be how do you get 1.6 milion in NW with 160k salary while driving a 911 :D The power of having no kids... :twisted: Still not possible. Saving 80k per year in the last 10 years won't even bring you close, but you cannot save 80 while driving a 911. We make f...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 208
Views: 16302

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

Based on other countries, that is past data right? How can you base your "error factor" on that if the past does not give any info about the future? Educated guess? What do you base that on, other than past experiences? Monte Carlo sims are nothing magical, they rely on input parameters, what do yo...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 208
Views: 16302

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

It is indeed true our sample size isn't big enough. However, the Great Depression was pretty bad. It's hard to go too much lower than a 90% drop in stocks. :) But I guess the next 30 years could see a 90% drop in stocks, AND high inflation or something. I the great depreasion had a pretty quick rec...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 208
Views: 16302

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

FWIW, neither he nor Kitces have the slightest idea what the future holds for market returns and therefore has little standing to be advising anyone how much to save or spend based on their guesses. So because they both admit that they don't have working crystal balls, they shouldn't be giving any ...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 208
Views: 16302

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

FWIW, neither he nor Kitces have the slightest idea what the future holds for market returns and therefore has little standing to be advising anyone how much to save or spend based on their guesses. So because they both admit that they don't have working crystal balls, they shouldn't be giving any ...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 208
Views: 16302

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

Very detailed blog post by the "Mad Fientist". Safe Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees The 4% rule is actually very safe for a 30-year retirement Was not is. The problem is figuring out how much the future will resemble the past. Note that 4% is for the WORST case scenarios. Normal times in the pas...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 208
Views: 16302

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

Rowan Oak wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:35 am
Very detailed blog post by the "Mad Fientist".

Safe Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees
  • The 4% rule is actually very safe for a 30-year retirement
Was not is. The problem is figuring out how much the future will resemble the past.
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Landlord wants to raise rent, but is asking if he can?
Replies: 54
Views: 5469

Re: Landlord wants to raise rent, but is asking if he can?

On good terms with the landlord and have lived in flat (his house but my own floor, walk in, etc.) for 5 years. Last year he increased rent +2.5% due to utilities going up. Same thing this year, asking to raise rent +2.5% this year, but asking if he can. He says if we don't want to, we don't have t...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Apartment 50% of assets
Replies: 21
Views: 1885

Re: Apartment 50% of assets

Do nothing. Your house isn't correlated directly with REITs to make changes like this. If this apartment lowers your yearly expenditures, think about saving a bit more of that into your portfolio rather than just uping the spending. I am assuming with 2 young kids you are in the accumulation stage m...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule question
Replies: 22
Views: 3106

Re: 4% rule question

No the accounts would not have the same value after 30 years. Simple example. Imagine 4% SWR, and 8% return. 25% taxes. retirement= 1000 dollars + 80 bucks return -40 payout -10 in taxes = 1030 taxable = 1000 dollars + 80 bucks return - 20 in taxes - 40 payout = 1020 As I mentioned earlier, how do ...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10360

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

I agree with everything you said, my post is merely noting that I believe there are good reasons why SPIAs are a little harder to swallow. And the exact situation matters. I just tried a quick quote at immediate annuities.com. I told it I was 65 and my spouse 61 (which is false, but a reasonable si...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?
Replies: 103
Views: 5550

Re: Is an emergency fund just about market timing?

willthrill81 wrote:
Sun Oct 07, 2018 10:26 pm

I can't imagine only having a week of food on hand. A month would be the barest minimum I could sleep well with.

See I wouldn't be able to sleep at night having to keep track of all that food and making sure it doesn't go bad.:)
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 4% rule question
Replies: 22
Views: 3106

Re: 4% rule question

If you apply 4% withdrawal rate for a $1M taxable vs a $1M non-taxable, what happens after 30 years, maybe the answer is in there? The two accounts would have the same amount after 30 years. No the accounts would not have the same value after 30 years. Simple example. Imagine 4% SWR, and 8% return....
by randomguy
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"
Replies: 48
Views: 4443

Re: "Retirement age uncertainty increases the savings needed for success"

To make this actionable: Blanchett's findings suggest that it would be prudent for people to use age 61 at their retirement date when deciding how much to save -- and what their asset allocation should be if they subscribe to glidepaths or are building a bond ladder. If you end up working longer th...
by randomguy
Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth video interview two days before the market bottomed in March 2009
Replies: 7
Views: 859

Re: Allan Roth video interview two days before the market bottomed in March 2009

My wife got a big bonus in March 2009... We were one of the lucky ones that kept our jobs and were even in fields that stayed strong (She was HR in Health care, I was working for a HFT who didn't care if the market was going up or down). We invested that bonus 100% in the market... But we were luck...
by randomguy
Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10360

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

It does not take much to show that annuities are a financial scam on consumers -- totally legal just like payday lenders in most states. Scam #1: They are advertised featuring "payout rates" which most consumers compare to CD rates because most people do not know better even after they read the fin...
by randomguy
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 198
Views: 10360

Re: Alan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

A single pay immediate annuity isn't a scam - though many other annuities have scam-like qualities and should be avoided. They are useful to some people, especially those blessed with good longevity genes and who don't have a decent source of "guaranteed" lifetime income. They are better the older ...
by randomguy
Sat Oct 06, 2018 7:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tackling Disney World - Discount on tickets?
Replies: 65
Views: 3683

Re: Tackling Disney World - Discount on tickets?

"Neither do we - while we do get large trip discounts and airfare free many times we do figure that it is a 'cost' of that particular trip to be measured against other costs we would like to fund." We generate about 60K points each month through our small business, so it's not so much "credit card ...