Search found 5302 matches

by randomguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued
Replies: 29
Views: 2367

Re: J. Montier: US equity market is obscenely overvalued

In 2011 James Montier predicted that over the next 7 years the S&P 500 would return just 0.2%. Well, 0.2% real, does that bring him close enough? :wink: Maybe he has a couple of months left and a 50% crash will make the predication pretty accurate. I have always thought it would be awesome for some...
by randomguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 95
Views: 7868

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

As many mention, sequence of events matters greatly in terms of long term portfolio viability. Given current valuations, I do not think it it unreasonable to expect my 75X expenses to devolve in 40 or 50X in short order. Also I feel the need to plan for a 45 to 50 years for the wife in retirement. ...
by randomguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trade my BMW?
Replies: 39
Views: 1707

Re: Trade my BMW?

WhiteMaxima wrote:
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:20 am
Sell the BMW. Get a Honda Civic Type-R. Fun to drive, reliable.
And really pricey. That is a 40k civic your looking at.
by randomguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trade my BMW?
Replies: 39
Views: 1707

Re: Trade my BMW?

I currently own a 2013 X3 with 50k miles. One year of the CPO warranty left. No loan...I purchased the vehicle used with cash two years ago for a bit under $30k. KBB currently puts the value just north of $15k. I really like the car, but am unable to do much of the maintenance myself like I would o...
by randomguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 95
Views: 7868

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

We have had this conversation before. Lets say real returns for the next 30 years are 1/3rd of historical values (call it 2%). Will the 4% rule fail? Maybe. Maybe not. 2% is twice what the 4% rule to work depending on the sequence of returns. If you are going to say you cut the SWR in half when CAP...
by randomguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 95
Views: 7868

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

It isn't cherry picking. It is just a simple example of showing the potential for loss of income when choosing to live off the dividends. It's not really a loss though, as I said. It's only a loss if you are comparing it to 1930. If you compare to 1926, it's simply parity. If the market is returnin...
by randomguy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 12:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 52
Views: 3026

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

Sorry, that was $1,000 invested annually . It would make a small difference by looking at monthly contributions, but not much. I always find these numbers a bit deceptive when you try and use them in the real world. Lets compare 2 people at 1k/year. 1988-2007 74k 1989-2008 55k That is a pretty big ...
by randomguy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Connecticut is charging sales tax on out of state purchases
Replies: 40
Views: 2483

Re: Connecticut is charging sales tax on out of state purchases

I think the states should be satisfied with what they get from the big guys (Amazon, LLBean, etc). Although Amazon only charges on what they sell, not for the vendors who sell through the Amazon website. Or have a uniform tax applied equally across all states (unless a state opts out) and have all ...
by randomguy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would umbrella policy protect from actions of litigious condo neighbor?
Replies: 12
Views: 1467

Re: Would umbrella policy protect from actions of litigious condo neighbor?

Not sure insurance would protect you retro-actively. That is, if the lawsuit has already been filed I wouldn't think you could add insurance now. I don't know though. It's sad how some people abuse the legal system. The other way of looking at it is how sad it is that the board inflicted damage on ...
by randomguy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason for equities in tIRA, if there is space for Total Equity Allocation in Taxable and Roth Accounts
Replies: 7
Views: 535

Re: Any reason for equities in tIRA, if there is space for Total Equity Allocation in Taxable and Roth Accounts

Of course there could be some years when there is a correction in equities, in which case that would temporarily suppress growth of of the tIRA. With stock prices where they are, maybe keep equities in tIRA and convert after they crash :( :wink: . Ignoring the market timing aspects of waiting for a...
by randomguy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 52
Views: 3026

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

I am very suspect that difference between success and failure was the house. A 500k mortgage, taxes and so on is going to be on the order 4k payment. That isn't going to be enough to be the difference between success and failure over 10 years (and if it is over 10 years, they making money on their ...
by randomguy
Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 52
Views: 3026

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

2) And, for most people, it comes down to do not be "House Poor". Once a person buys the house that everyone expects you to buy, you are in debt to the house for a very long period of time. Savings go out of the window. I am bit curious. How did all your coworkers and friend lose money in the washi...
by randomguy
Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Married Filing Separately - Roth IRA oops
Replies: 12
Views: 588

Re: Married Filing Separately - Roth IRA oops

What are the tax savings/penalty from filing jointly? How do they compare to whatever savings you expect to gain from pay as you earn?
by randomguy
Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: CPA recommends to NOT contribute to SEP IRA
Replies: 12
Views: 1482

Re: CPA recommends to NOT contribute to SEP IRA

It depends. If his marginal tax rate now is less than his expected marginal tax rate in retirement, it's not bad advice at all. It depends a lot on his current tax situation as well as how much he has saved for retirement. EDIT: To clarify, it's not bad advice to contribute the same amount to a ROT...
by randomguy
Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 52
Views: 3026

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

2) And, for most people, it comes down to do not be "House Poor". Once a person buys the house that everyone expects you to buy, you are in debt to the house for a very long period of time. Savings go out of the window. I am bit curious. How did all your coworkers and friend lose money in the washi...
by randomguy
Mon Feb 19, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 52
Views: 3026

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

Thanks for posting that. I often wonder why people think the sequence of returns does not matter during accumulation. It is the same math with a different sign on the withdrawals. Note there is a planning difference that you get to see the outcome before you do something rash like retiring, while i...
by randomguy
Mon Feb 19, 2018 7:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the best home exercise equipment?
Replies: 151
Views: 13732

Re: What is the best home exercise equipment?

Brand new kit. I don't understand all the metrics (sorry my bad, haven't yet gone through their website) - but here are screenshots of my performance. 30 minutes each. What does each of them mean ? How am I doing ? Day 1 https://i.imgur.com/iwxvEKB.jpg Day 5 https://i.imgur.com/JRsmLsf.jpg Have you...
by randomguy
Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interactive Brokers fee structure for passive investors
Replies: 28
Views: 1763

Re: Interactive Brokers fee structure for passive investors

Also, from what I understand, IB"s customer service isn't that great. They have very few physical offices. Even their commission free ETFs are typically leveraged, momentum style ETFs. I don't think they have many (if any) affiliated advisors or portfolio services. This is unlike almost all of the ...
by randomguy
Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor
Replies: 15
Views: 1187

Re: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor

My thinking was that the only time the Schiller PE has gone under 17 since the early 90s, was during recessions. So I'm worried that if I lower the PE ratio thresholds, I run a risk of being way too conservative. "since the early 90s" isn't really anything at all in terms of market history. I would...
by randomguy
Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: condo rental and emotional support animals issues
Replies: 22
Views: 2556

Re: condo rental and emotional support animals issues

A hotel where I go to ride out hurricanes permits pets, but charges $100 a day more for them. I would imagine that means it is legal to have an increased rent for a pet. I would also guess that you could require a larger cleaning deposit as long as it is for any pet not just esa animals. It is lega...
by randomguy
Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads with $100K+ MSRP cars?
Replies: 82
Views: 7407

Re: Bogleheads with $100K+ MSRP cars?

I'd say the fear when taking the car out is very dependent on location. For instance, I moved to the north Dallas area a bit over a year ago. In my last city where I grew up, I'd never own a super nice car. They stuck out like a sore thumb and were ripe for vandalism. Even when I bought my Challeng...
by randomguy
Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor
Replies: 15
Views: 1187

Re: Dynamic Allocation based on the Intelligent Investor

And it circumscribes the risk of a dot.com or Japan 1989 style meltdown. This is the Shiller PE in Japan over the past ~30 years You can't really compare PE10s accross countries. 20 in the US isn't the same as 20 in Japan given the different accounting rules. There is also some bias where some mark...
by randomguy
Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads with $100K+ MSRP cars?
Replies: 82
Views: 7407

Re: Bogleheads with $100K+ MSRP cars?

BH is an investment philosophy. It is not a complete lifestyle, right? I totally get owning an MX-5 and I totally get owning a 911. And I totally get not spending six figures just to have slightly softer leather under you or a headliner with actual "stars" made from individual LEDs (that's you, RR)...
by randomguy
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mixing fuel octanes for cars
Replies: 57
Views: 3404

Re: Mixing fuel octanes for cars

I'd fill up with 89 and not even use any 93. Saves more money. Actually, I always use the lowest octane which is 87 around here I think. Do the experiment and see if lower octane works. 👍 The car is likely to work (i.e. most modern engines dynamically adapt to different octanes). You tend to lose p...
by randomguy
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best plants to grow to save money for food costs
Replies: 93
Views: 4828

Re: Best plants to grow to save money for food costs

Careful with wild mushrooms- eating the wrong one can put you six feet under, quickly. Well you would save a lot on your food budget that way:) Having grown a bunch of stuff, I doubt we are saving money. At best we are getting a couple hundred dollars of veggies for a hundred hours of work. It is p...
by randomguy
Sun Feb 18, 2018 1:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best plants to grow to save money for food costs
Replies: 93
Views: 4828

Re: Best plants to grow to save money for food costs

Rainier wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:53 pm
Marijuana.

Assuming it's legal in your state.
Wouldn't that likely increase your food budget?
by randomguy
Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $12,000 Refrigerator? [Looking in $7k price range]
Replies: 49
Views: 5305

Re: $12,000 Refrigerator?

I am in the market for a new appliance package. My loca store has a 1600 rebate on select, upscale Kitchen Aid appliances and I am leaning in that direction. I am look at ~ $7k approx for DW, Fridge, Micro, Stove before rebate But I saw a Viking refrigerator for $12,000. Some of their other applian...
by randomguy
Sat Feb 17, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sanity Check on Primary/Rental Purchase: killing cash-flow
Replies: 24
Views: 1577

Re: Sanity Check on Primary/Rental Purchase: killing cash-flow

So you must have heard about the 1% rule of thumb? You're looking at .4%. And that's after paying yourself rent which doesn't make your situation any better. Sounds like either real estate sellers in CA are sadistic or buyers are masochistic. Or both. Maybe. But they are also rich. Rentals in most ...
by randomguy
Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sanity Check on Primary/Rental Purchase: killing cash-flow
Replies: 24
Views: 1577

Re: Sanity Check on Primary/Rental Purchase: killing cash-flow

So you must have heard about the 1% rule of thumb? You're looking at .4%. And that's after paying yourself rent which doesn't make your situation any better. Sounds like either real estate sellers in CA are sadistic or buyers are masochistic. Or both. Maybe. But they are also rich. Rentals in most ...
by randomguy
Sat Feb 17, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mixing fuel octanes for cars
Replies: 57
Views: 3404

Re: Mixing fuel octanes for cars

You need to work on your analogies. If you are so frugal to spend an extra 10 minutes at the gas station EVERY fill up to save $150 per year, you have indeed purchased the wrong vehicle. I would never purchase a vehicle that used anything other than 87, but if I did, I sure wouldn’t perform those g...
by randomguy
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mixing fuel octanes for cars
Replies: 57
Views: 3404

Re: Mixing fuel octanes for cars

I'd fill up with 89 and not even use any 93. Saves more money. Actually, I always use the lowest octane which is 87 around here I think. Do the experiment and see if lower octane works. Most modern cars will work as the computers will adjust. The question is will your losses in gas mileage outweigh...
by randomguy
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mixing fuel octanes for cars
Replies: 57
Views: 3404

Re: Mixing fuel octanes for cars

Someone who is thrifty enough to even consider doing this should probably have bought a car that runs on 87 octane regular. :oops: THIS! 👍🏼 Not really. By this logic pretty much nobody should be doing anything frugal since you will always find something else they could have done. Why are you shoppi...
by randomguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Connecticut is charging sales tax on out of state purchases
Replies: 40
Views: 2483

Re: Connecticut is charging sales tax on out of state purchases

Please check out the post above mine. They are charging a use tax, and this has nothing to do with anything to be blocked by the Supreme Court. What CT is doing is perfectly legal and not at issue in the Supreme Court. The use tax is fine but there is some question about if retailers need/can provi...
by randomguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Not to Get Rich - Mark Twain
Replies: 17
Views: 3416

Re: How Not to Get Rich - Mark Twain

Just finished reading "How Not to Get Rich: The Financial Misadventures of Mark Twain" https://www.amazon.com/How-Not-Get-Rich-Misadventures-ebook/dp/B01MXXZZNJ/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1518790002&sr=8-1&keywords=how+not+to+get+rich . He was never poor by any means, but it's Interesting that a man wi...
by randomguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Repairing Stucco: A Case of Contractor Gouging
Replies: 39
Views: 2676

Re: Repairing Stucco: A Case of Contractor Gouging

Mr. $350 called back to say that he didn't take into account where I lived in his quote. He didn't say that he needed to charge more because he had to travel further or against more traffic: he said he needed to charge more because of where I lived . Now, I Iive not far away from the swankier areas...
by randomguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method
Replies: 119
Views: 9654

Re: Retirees: The common sense withdrawal method

This is also called "the Taylor Larimore method." It is what I follow. Any scheme works pretty well when you retire in a year when the SWR was about 10%:) Reality is that most people will retire in average times, take out about what they have always spent and do things like postpone trips/remodels ...
by randomguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any Creative Ways to Cut the Cable?
Replies: 35
Views: 2929

Re: Any Creative Ways to Cut the Cable?

Our cable and internet bill has crept up to $170/mo over the past couple years after the initial promotion expired and the cable company switched ownership. Currently we are under Spectrum/Time Warner. We literally only watch a few TV channels (i.e. ESPN, Food Network, Discovery Channel). I'd like ...
by randomguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get child's skin in the game for college?
Replies: 135
Views: 6412

Re: How to get child's skin in the game for college?

Disagree with this line of thinking. "Lucky" high earners get punished in many different ways: - Higher taxes - AMT - Many perks/deductions/credits phase out depending on income High income tends to be punished, there are many incentives to remain as a mid to low income earner. How would you like i...
by randomguy
Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 129
Views: 7036

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

To get better than 4% real either of the two have to happen 1. PEs have to get higher 2. Earnings per share has to continue to outpace economic growth. Is it possible either of those two things will happen? Sure anything is possible. Given that both are at historic highs, is it reasonable to assume...
by randomguy
Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Number at which to stop worrying
Replies: 170
Views: 16658

Re: Number at which to stop worrying

I’ll give you an honest answer — $15 million. That leaves me with $10 million to buy TIPS to cover $250k per year (infl adj) for the next 40 years. And $5 million to aggressively grow for my kids and grandkids. But I’ll probably quit before I hit that number. Maybe. Nope. If we get a 1970s type or ...
by randomguy
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 129
Views: 7036

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

I think the point was not that 4% real is a bad return. It isn't. The points are: - Those who expect historical real returns will likely be disappointed - The 4% return scenario is somewhat of a best case - if there is long term mean reversion the results will be worse. All the more reason I use 3%...
by randomguy
Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 129
Views: 7036

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

I find the article hard to argue against. His 4% real return assume no decrease in valuation. Citing what has happened over the last 25 years as evidence against it is nonsensical. Valuations have increased and earnings yields have increased. If you to assume both will increase further even beyond ...
by randomguy
Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used car - warranty or no?
Replies: 24
Views: 854

Re: Used car - warranty or no?

CPO give you a longer warranty from the manufacturer (normally like 5-7 years. Extended warranties are from insurance companies, You tend to have to read them pretty closely to figure out what is covered and what isn't. Dealers sell them (often with some manufacturer branding like HondaCare) but you...
by randomguy
Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: rule of thumb of when to sell your car
Replies: 50
Views: 3366

Re: rule of thumb of when to sell your car

Hey, you took a picture of my car! Being a rubber chemical tech service rep in a former life, I would normally agree with you on the rubber aging, but my experience living in San Diego and parking 95% of the time in a dark garage, is that the rubber is still pretty good. New tires after 10 years, h...
by randomguy
Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: rule of thumb of when to sell your car
Replies: 50
Views: 3366

Re: rule of thumb of when to sell your car

To be fair, you picked what is, in my opinion, a worst case scenario. For whatever reason, those Lexus's looked dated about 3 years after they came out. I generally don't notice dated-looking cars, but I notice ever single one of Lexus's with that old styling! JT That was the first photo for a 2000...
by randomguy
Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used Chevy Volt - Which year should I look at?
Replies: 33
Views: 2439

Re: Used Chevy Volt - Which year should I look at?

I have no idea what is financially optimal, but I'd be inclined to try to find one that is deeply discounted because the battery is at the end of its life, and plan to replace the battery right after purchase. That is pretty much impossible to find car. Volt batteries were overengineered and have s...
by randomguy
Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used Chevy Volt - Which year should I look at?
Replies: 33
Views: 2439

Re: Used Chevy Volt - Which year should I look at?

chemocean wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:53 pm
As someone mentioned, the Volt is heavier than the Bolt because of the extra engine.

The 2016 Volt is the lighter car at 3519 compared to the Volts 3563. The engine weighs less than the batteries.
by randomguy
Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you only live off dividends?
Replies: 95
Views: 7868

Re: What if you only live off dividends?

For example you would have gone from making 15k/year in 1930 to 8.2k year in 1932 in real dollars. Or if you want something more recent, 33k/year in 2008 to 25k/year in 2009. I think this is good because 1932 was in a recession and its usually prudent to spend less during recessions, even if you're...
by randomguy
Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: rule of thumb of when to sell your car
Replies: 50
Views: 3366

Re: rule of thumb of when to sell your car

My 2000 Lexus RX300 SUV has 80k miles and still - apart from a couple of retouched dings - looks and runs like it's brand new. The styling is pretty much indistinguishable from newer RXXXX models so there's no issue with it looking out-of-date or decrepit in any way. I could drive it another 20 yea...
by randomguy
Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used Chevy Volt - Which year should I look at?
Replies: 33
Views: 2439

Re: Used Chevy Volt - Which year should I look at?

So the Volt essentially has unlimited range because it runs on battery to start, and gas once the battery runs out? But unlike a hybrid that has both gas & electric, this thing need to be plugged in to run on electric only? Essentially. The internal difference is that it's really an electric car wi...