Search found 6414 matches

by randomguy
Tue Nov 13, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 59
Views: 2591

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

It’s only when the market turns, and the turn starts to look like it constitutes a trend, that our investor begins to think about conserving all those gains—whether derived from Investor’s acumen or Fed largesse, who cares? It’s money: and when it looks like the party’s over, it’s our job as invest...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Feeling uneasy about recent splurge
Replies: 39
Views: 3265

Re: Feeling uneasy about recent splurge

Goodness, if ever a purchase was NOT a penny wise/pound foolish purchase it's a decent mattress. As you point out this item is used every single night, to get enough quality sleep to enable you to face every day refreshed and ready. I actually think people who skimp on beds are exceedingly foolish;...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:02 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: retirement travel: RVs vs fly/drive/hotel
Replies: 98
Views: 9003

Re: retirement travel: RVs vs fly/drive/hotel

I'm not saying they aren't a problem - I'm just saying the chance of them impacting you at any hotel or AirBnB you stay at is likely very very small. I'd suggest doing your own research. You may have a different risk tolerance than I do. :sharebeer I've tried - can't find any good data - that's why...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone with an Audi A3, Sport hatchback e-tron?
Replies: 29
Views: 1876

Re: Anyone with an Audi A3, Sport hatchback e-tron?

Priorities: 30 mpg, comfort, low noise, reliable. Not a plug-in but hybrid, but some Volvos would check your checkboxes. Have you considered a new XC40 or a Certified Pre-owned V60? He did have reliable on the list:) He's a she. ;) If you are willing to relax the gas mileage (i.e. the volvos are ab...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is maxing out Tax defered 401(k) enough?
Replies: 37
Views: 2891

Re: Is maxing out Tax defered 401(k) enough?

Saving 15% of your income for 30 years at 8% return should provide you with 85% of your income for 30 years. I think maxing out 401k should be enough... But for the majority on this board, all gratification must be delayed as long as possible. That's because of unknowns like disability, loss of job...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planet Fitness etc.,
Replies: 50
Views: 3998

Re: Planet Fitness etc.,

My PF hardly has any free weights/ dumbbells. Good for cardio workout. Truthfully I rarely go anymore. Mine gives free bagels and donuts. Never quite understood that, I guess for carbs but gee, how about maybe a glass of carrot juice instead. The ideal customer😁 If it was 50/month you would go or q...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 12, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planet Fitness etc.,
Replies: 50
Views: 3998

Re: Planet Fitness etc.,

The ones where you own 50 franchises locations. Granted I guess then you are just buying yourself a CEO job versus a manager one:) That makes sense... So how does one get to double digits locations? Do you slog it out for 20 years? Or do you start with a lot of money? I dont know anyone with 50 PF ...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6839

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

Not surprising as we have been in a Large Cap Growth market for a decade now. Tilting would not have helped whether you made a lump sum investment in 2008 or if you dollar-cost-averaged your investment into the markets over that decade. A Total Market Index during the last decade would have beaten ...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 12, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6839

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

The problem is that Small Value is just 2% of the US Total Stock Market, if you also consider Mid Value, then you are up to 8%. Something in me just doesn't want to cram all my equity investment into 2% of the market. I don't think you are advocating this, but you raise an important question. How m...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 12, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Running in the cold rain
Replies: 12
Views: 1241

Re: Running in the cold rain

Anyone do this? What gear do you use to stay warm and/or dry? your running. You are going to be warm after 2o mins in just about any possible condition where it is raining. Jack, gloves and a hat get you down to the low 40s. can do tights if you want. You will get wet. that is pretty much unavoidab...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Small Value Still A Winner?
Replies: 96
Views: 6839

Re: Is Small Value Still A Winner?

needsaid, Since you mentioned his name can you help me with this idea for my 22 year old son that puts $5500 into a Roth IRA each year. What about the Paul Merriman idea of the 2 fund Target Dated Fund with svc fund for a young person starting to invest. Does this make sense. 90% TDF 10% scv 80% TD...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 12, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11401

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

Of course, everyone's desired spending is different. I would not tell someone they are spending too much, that they "should be" happy on much less. But some people seem absolutely incredulous that a person could even survive on $3000/month. "But... but... my property taxes are nearly that much!!" I...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 12, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11401

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

Of course, everyone's desired spending is different. I would not tell someone they are spending too much, that they "should be" happy on much less. But some people seem absolutely incredulous that a person could even survive on $3000/month. "But... but... my property taxes are nearly that much!!" I...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 12, 2018 9:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11401

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

We can argue about details for ever but basically some people will say how can I possibly spend 4k/month and someone else is going to go there is no possible way I can live on 4k/month. Both are true and really aren't worth discussing as they are very personal choices. What I do find suspect is the...
by randomguy
Sun Nov 11, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?
Replies: 75
Views: 8284

Re: Are We In A Real Estate Bubble?

The burbs, depending which towns don’t have that feverish pitch we saw back in ‘06-07. We got 20% less for our house recently (in a pricy North Jersey town) than reasonable realtors (ie., not trying to buy a listing) thought we’d get when we were preparing to list it in January . Real estate agents...
by randomguy
Sun Nov 11, 2018 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11401

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

We can argue about details for ever but basically some people will say how can I possibly spend 4k/month and someone else is going to go there is no possible way I can live on 4k/month. Both are true and really aren't worth discussing as they are very personal choices. What I do find suspect is the...
by randomguy
Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11401

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

We can argue about details for ever but basically some people will say how can I possibly spend 4k/month and someone else is going to go there is no possible way I can live on 4k/month. Both are true and really aren't worth discussing as they are very personal choices. What I do find suspect is the ...
by randomguy
Sun Nov 11, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?
Replies: 59
Views: 2591

Re: "Rules-Based Risk Management System" = Market Timing = Momentum/Trend Following?

And yes, the blue line looks much easier to hold on to, when zoomed out like this. But I agree with Chuffly, there will be many occasions when you'll sell, possibly at a loss, and have to buy back in a little bit higher. In contrast, in your comparison with rebalancing, you're still selling the ass...
by randomguy
Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planet Fitness etc.,
Replies: 50
Views: 3998

Re: Planet Fitness etc.,

I have a feeling most of them are buying a job from the few numbers I have seen. Have you seen a franchise that isn't like buying a job? I looked at this a few years ago and after a few months of t taking to 30+ owners across 4 different business lines, I gave up. They all seemed to be buying a job...
by randomguy
Sun Nov 11, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planet Fitness etc.,
Replies: 50
Views: 3998

Re: Planet Fitness etc.,

"The average place is brining in 1.7 million (7k people paying a bit over 20 bucks each) and paying ~800k in expenses. For 900k net. Now you also have to pay the franchising royalty (~120k), interest/opportunity cost (1-2 million dollars. Call it 75-150k/year), running the shop" I do not know the G...
by randomguy
Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: retirement travel: RVs vs fly/drive/hotel
Replies: 98
Views: 9003

Re: retirement travel: RVs vs fly/drive/hotel

RVing is not for everyone. I have friends and family who have very happily lived and traveled in RVs for years at a time with occaisonal stops at home when they are passing through. Others buy RVs which get parked in the driveway until they rot away. They are a lot like expensive boats where some g...
by randomguy
Sun Nov 11, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planet Fitness etc.,
Replies: 50
Views: 3998

Re: Planet Fitness etc.,

The good news for those of us who are frugal, there's usually another fool waiting to open a gym and run a promotional deal below the actual cost. A friend owned more than 50 PFs. Sold 20 for 1.5m each. I wish I was half as foolish as him! $1.5 million each per sale would indicate that they were ca...
by randomguy
Sun Nov 11, 2018 12:40 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: retirement travel: RVs vs fly/drive/hotel
Replies: 98
Views: 9003

Re: retirement travel: RVs vs fly/drive/hotel

You can use google and come across a couple hundred articles and threads about people facing this problem with hotels and AirBNB. it is at the level where you don't expect it to happen but hearing about it isn't exactly shocking. I do not disagree with you, but my feeling is that bedbugs are not fr...
by randomguy
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Planet Fitness etc.,
Replies: 50
Views: 3998

Re: Planet Fitness etc.,

There's no free lunch in the gym business. I'm a 24 Hour fitness member and have been for the last four years through the Costco deal. The equipment is old/dirty/broken and there's a lot of deferred maintenance. I think they got hammered by the Planet Fitnesses of the world trying to get even cheap...
by randomguy
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11401

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

I'm single with no debt, paid off home, newer car and save more than twice what I spend each year. I live in a medium COL city and live moderately frugally, but don't want for much of anything. I still spend $45-50K/year. The thought of working until medicare age of 65 makes me ill so my expenses, ...
by randomguy
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: retirement travel: RVs vs fly/drive/hotel
Replies: 98
Views: 9003

Re: retirement travel: RVs vs fly/drive/hotel

Our thinking is the $50-100K to buy a RV, maintain, low mpg, store it, etc we can stay in nice hotels every night on the road and be ahead of the game. We typically stay at Holiday Inn Express, Hampton Inn, Resident Inn, Embassy Suits, etc. We have looked at RV several times and just do not see the...
by randomguy
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: retirement travel: RVs vs fly/drive/hotel
Replies: 98
Views: 9003

Re: retirement travel: RVs vs fly/drive/hotel

If you want to keep it really simple and less expensive: How about an SUV, remove a row of seats (or both rows). Add a nice futon, or air mattress if you want less bulk. Put up some curtains to block windows. Have a small tent if you want to use that at times. Perhaps tow a small trailer if you wan...
by randomguy
Sat Nov 10, 2018 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11401

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

I'm single with no debt, paid off home, newer car and save more than twice what I spend each year. I live in a medium COL city and live moderately frugally, but don't want for much of anything. I still spend $45-50K/year. The thought of working until medicare age of 65 makes me ill so my expenses, ...
by randomguy
Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: aerobic exercise: rower vs. treadmill and elliptical
Replies: 44
Views: 3307

Re: aerobic exercise: rower vs. treadmill and elliptical

Not quite what you're asking for, but I'd get ride of both (treadmill and elliptical) and get a stationary bike. I've never found the treadmill or elliptical to be "strenuous" enough, despite the ability to increase resistance or incline. I find myself getting better workouts on a simple, resistanc...
by randomguy
Sat Nov 10, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11401

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

I don't believe that I've ever heard anyone say that they regretted saving money earlier in their lives. But it is very common for people to say that they regret not spending more time with loved ones earlier in their lives. If a high savings rate is truly preventing you from spending time with you...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11401

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

I don't believe that I've ever heard anyone say that they regretted saving money earlier in their lives. But it is very common for people to say that they regret not spending more time with loved ones earlier in their lives. If a high savings rate is truly preventing you from spending time with you...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: aerobic exercise: rower vs. treadmill and elliptical
Replies: 44
Views: 3307

Re: aerobic exercise: rower vs. treadmill and elliptical

Go with the concept 2 and treadmill. Ditch the elliptical. If you want results you need intensity, and that is not possible with an elliptical. Or if you want two elliptical machines, you can come pick up mine - haven’t touched it since I got the rower. Why couldn't you get intensity on the ellipti...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone with an Audi A3, Sport hatchback e-tron?
Replies: 29
Views: 1876

Re: Anyone with an Audi A3, Sport hatchback e-tron?

For what it is worth, I consider Volvo to be as reliable as Subaru, and I know many other car guys who think the same way. I don't have any data to back it up, but my gut feeling says a hybrid Subaru would not be nearly as reliable or as refined as a hybrid Lexus or Acura. Volvo is in the bottom 3r...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone with an Audi A3, Sport hatchback e-tron?
Replies: 29
Views: 1876

Re: Anyone with an Audi A3, Sport hatchback e-tron?

Sandi_k wrote:
Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:25 pm

Yeah, the front grill is a tragedy, though. :D
Maybe it looks better in person:) Lexus has very polarizing styling (you either love it or hate it) which seems odd for a car sold to old people who don't care about cars:)
by randomguy
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone with an Audi A3, Sport hatchback e-tron?
Replies: 29
Views: 1876

Re: Anyone with an Audi A3, Sport hatchback e-tron?

Pennylane, since you seem to have an inside track: do you think it might be possible eventually to swap in a bigger battery, as they become available, to the A3 etron? I read some speculation about that somewhere. I doubt this will ever happen for any of the mainline EVs or plug in hybrids. A lot e...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone with an Audi A3, Sport hatchback e-tron?
Replies: 29
Views: 1876

Re: Anyone with an Audi A3, Sport hatchback e-tron?

Priorities: 30 mpg, comfort, low noise, reliable. Not a plug-in but hybrid, but some Volvos would check your checkboxes. Have you considered a new XC40 or a Certified Pre-owned V60? He did have reliable on the list:) If you are willing to relax the gas mileage (i.e. the volvos are above 30 on the h...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 09, 2018 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 167
Views: 11345

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Nice chart, AlexisAtEasternState. Yeah that was a nice presentation. You would probably need to read the fine print to see if their defintions of everything matches yours. For fun lets look at gold over the past 40 years 1972-1981 25% CAGR 1982-1999 -1.73% CAGR 2000-2012 14% CAGR 2013-2018 -5.69 CA...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: aerobic exercise: rower vs. treadmill and elliptical
Replies: 44
Views: 3307

Re: aerobic exercise: rower vs. treadmill and elliptical

Seems like everyone agrees that the rower doesn’t have the same aerobic benefits as the treadmill or the elliptical, but do its anaerobic benefits make it a worthwhile form of exercise? I’m thinking of upper body muscle development. I will disagree with that. The rower aerobic benefit is the same o...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: aerobic exercise: rower vs. treadmill and elliptical
Replies: 44
Views: 3307

Re: aerobic exercise: rower vs. treadmill and elliptical

My experience is that rowing was not as good a work out as the elliptical or treadmill. I tried a Concept 2 at my gym for several workouts and never quite got my heart rate to where it would get on the other machines. Maybe there is a technique to get a workout but I never really looked into it tha...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11401

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

Good question. We earn 400k HHI+. When you subtract our mortgage, savings, college savings and childcare we spend around $4k per month. So $48k per year. This includes transportation costs. This is eating out frequently, cleaning service, weekly babysitter, taxis etc. Whereas we are saving around $...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 08, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: aerobic exercise: rower vs. treadmill and elliptical
Replies: 44
Views: 3307

Re: aerobic exercise: rower vs. treadmill and elliptical

I like rowing but we only have room for a treadmill and spin bike. The commercial Precor treadmill is a beast, but it is awesome. The spin bike is compact and a perfect compliment for change of pace workouts. If one had to go, it would be the elliptical for me. I would run/walk, bike or row over el...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11401

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

Helpful to hear from everyone and seems that at least some see it the same way I do. I’m not suggesting no savings or extreme lifestyle creep. I’m suggesting that a couple earning $250k, who might be paying a $4k mortgage and maxing 2 401k’s is “living on” less than $100k/year after taxes, mortgage...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you still jump if you were ready, then the market dropped 50%??
Replies: 40
Views: 4541

Re: Would you still jump if you were ready, then the market dropped 50%??

It’s the great paradox. If you retire and the next day the market drops 50% the 4% rule says you’re safe for 30 years. If the market drops 50% the day before you retire you don’t have enough. My recommendation is that if a 50% drop ruins your retirement change your AA to the point where it wouldn’t...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?
Replies: 118
Views: 7226

Re: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?

Folks, My saving rate is based on my annual expense. I save 100% of my annual expense every year because I want to reach my goal in less than 25 years. The reason why I use this saving rate and method is that I want to balance saving and spending. I save as much as I spend is a good balance for me....
by randomguy
Thu Nov 08, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?
Replies: 118
Views: 7226

Re: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?

I am saying at income level X, it is harder to save 50% the lower your income level goes. That was the original point and i stand by it. I don't see how it is even debatable. Now it is harder the higher you income goes. Simple example a) 5 million/year fed taxes = 1.8 million state taxes = 640 mili...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 08, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?
Replies: 118
Views: 7226

Re: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?

A hardworking firefighter makers a lot more than 60k/year where I live. The good ones are pushing 300k:) In case you missed the pointed making a ton of money or saving a ton of money aren't really laudable events. The goal of saving isn't to get the number as high as possible. It is to get the numb...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 08, 2018 2:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?
Replies: 120
Views: 11401

Re: If expenses are low, are some of us over saving?

(1) is huge. A plan that requires that you work until 63-65-70 is no plan. It's not up to you. You could get laid off and be unable to find another job at 57. You better have SOME savings just in case. To some extent yeah but you aren't talking a ton of savings. 36k/year for 10 years is only 360k f...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?
Replies: 118
Views: 7226

Re: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?

:) I have no idea why some believe that savings rate is meaningless. Nothing could be further from the truth. Your savings rate is closely linked to how long it will take you to reach financial independence (FI), a major goal for most Bogleheads. Assuming 5% real returns and a 4% withdrawal rate, i...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 08, 2018 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?
Replies: 118
Views: 7226

Re: Do people calculate savings rate on gross income?

:) I have no idea why some believe that savings rate is meaningless. Nothing could be further from the truth. Your savings rate is closely linked to how long it will take you to reach financial independence (FI), a major goal for most Bogleheads. Assuming 5% real returns and a 4% withdrawal rate, i...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
Replies: 295
Views: 19024

Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

I ordered a MR, Metallic Silver, Black, Aero, AP on October 28. I'm crossing my fingers for a delivery date before year end. In fact, I'm so worried about missing the federal tax credit cutoff that I've been hounding my Owner Advisor to find me an unmatched LR RWD that I can switch to for a quicker...