Search found 5907 matches

by randomguy
Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Another Roth vs Traditional Debate
Replies: 15
Views: 991

Re: Another Roth vs Traditional Debate

I'm just not sure I buy the argument for using a Roth for just about anyone in the accumulation phase unless you are at the bottom of the tax bracket and expect your income to go up in the near future. Even for someone with a Federal + State tax rate of 19%, I still think go traditional and here is...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 24
Views: 1253

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Whenever I've checked, the price for a CPI-linked annuity has been a tad less than the pr...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the price of a new car a good proxy for the expense of owning it?
Replies: 24
Views: 1461

Re: Is the price of a new car a good proxy for the expense of owning it?

...but i do think some things can be interesting without being earth shattering. +1. It would be fun to look at the whole data set, and maybe color- or symbol-code by manufacturer to get a sense where each tends to fall relative to "the line." I'm sure there are a few like Infiniti, maybe, that are...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 24
Views: 1253

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Whenever I've checked, the price for a CPI-linked annuity has been a tad less than the pr...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 44
Views: 2393

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

I agree that the marginal benefit of a bond tent seems pretty small. Regarding bond performance, don't forget that the 1919 investor didn't have access to TIPS. Didn't have access to index funds either;) You can change up the portfolios (Bergan believes the 4.5% rule these days since he realized if...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 65
Views: 2189

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

CAPE was below it's mean and median for about 6 weeks in 2009. Maybe 8 weeks. That's a bit of an exaggeration. Looking at Shiller's spreadsheet, CAPE10 was below 16.5 from October 2008 to July 2009 and it was below 15.5 from November 2008 to April 2009. So anywhere from 6-10 months depending on whe...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 90
Views: 4664

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=2&startYear=2000&endYear=2009&initialAmount=2000000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&portfolio1=Custom&portfolio2=Custom&portfolio3=Custom&TotalSto...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 65
Views: 2189

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

I am new to this forum, but what I'm gathering in my first few days, is there has been a rash of criticism of PE10, market timing, etc, etc. So now if anyone even mentions these terms, they are summarily taken to the wood shed... But as a guy who hasn't been through these battles, here's how I very...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 65
Views: 2189

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

William Bengen (who did much of the work to coin the 4% rule we hear about today) really did nothing more than a "least common denominator" analysis. In other words, based on all the retirement start dates available within his data range, he simply wanted to know who ran out of money first -- for a...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 65
Views: 2189

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

I largely agree, but the issues surrounding sequence of returns risk are not 'common sense' as evidenced by the many folks who said back in the 1990s that 7% withdrawals were reasonable; Dave Ramsay still espouses 8% withdrawals. [/quote] That 7% was pretty reasonable. You have to remember this is p...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much car can we afford?
Replies: 121
Views: 4671

Re: how much car can we afford?

wander, Being smart and having a high income has no relationship with whether a person is smart about personal finance. Lawyers and doctors are among the worst in term of personal finance literacy. KlangFool Pretty much every study I have seen suggest doctors and lawyers are above average with fina...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much car can we afford?
Replies: 121
Views: 4671

Re: how much car can we afford?

Whatever you can pay with cash. +1 -1. Today I can write a check for 1 million+ dollars. There is no way any reasonable person can justify paying that much at my network. When I was 22, I could pay like 1.5k in cash. I could afford 15k car with no problems. Certainly the point was not to spend all ...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 44
Views: 2393

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

Looking at this strategy from a more recent historic instance may be beneficial. Year 2000 retirees had the worst sequence of returns of any cohort since the 1970s. The 'bond tent' approach would have served them very well, far better than a static or declining equity glide path. Granted, this was ...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?
Replies: 44
Views: 2393

Re: How can I use the Rising Equity Glide Path?

Almost on topic: McClung suggests starting with very near 50% in bond funds, then spending from only those bond funds, rebalancing when the equities have grown to 120% real (inflation adjusted) from retirement day, while 110% or 100% are only slightly less optimal rebalancing points. It is bond dep...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's the reason you would buy reading glasses at...
Replies: 33
Views: 1714

Re: What's the reason you would buy reading glasses at...

WHY would you buy reading glasses ? My eye doctor says I do not need prescription eye glasses. In order to use the computer and read printed material, I need to use reading glasses. It is not about economy. I would buy them if they cost $500. Fortunately they are only a couple dollars at Wal*Mart o...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Inflation adjusted annuity
Replies: 24
Views: 1253

Re: Inflation adjusted annuity

Regardless of BobK's recommendation, I would avoid true inflation adjusted annuities. An insurance company takes a LOT of risk with a product like that and the price to the annuitant will be unreasonably high. Something like the Fidelity 2% annual increment or the TIAA graded payment avoids risk of...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 65
Views: 2189

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

randomguy, <<Have you seen any evidence that bond tents/rising equity/... noticeably change the outcome?>> I am not that smart. I am not smart enough to do this analysis. I only know that I should keep about 5 years in fixed income now. Please see the following thread for my analysis of my own situ...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Timing of car purchase during a model year
Replies: 16
Views: 1158

Re: Timing of car purchase during a model year

Have not found and previous post with this situation explained so here goes. Wife wants a new 2019 SUV and will trade in a 2015 SUV with low miles. The longer we wait the more miles are placed on the trade-in and thus less value but early in a model year I suspect the dealers wish to extract a prem...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 65
Views: 2189

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

1) I believe that is the wrong question. The correct question and conclusion are we have no idea what the sequence of real return will be when we start withdrawing. So, we need a strategy that works even if the sequence of real return is not favorable. Kitces offered one. Aka, bond tent. 2) If the ...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the price of a new car a good proxy for the expense of owning it?
Replies: 24
Views: 1461

Re: Is the price of a new car a good proxy for the expense of owning it?

That means, over the first five years of ownership, you can expect the annual expense of an automobile to be approximately $1,622 + 20% of the initial purchase price. I bet this calculation is dominated by depreciation. Repairs and maintenance are about as large as factor Honda Civic TCO 34k.4k dep...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much car can we afford?
Replies: 121
Views: 4671

Re: how much car can we afford?

Nate79 wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:38 am
basspond wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 7:22 am
Whatever you can pay with cash.
+1
-1. Today I can write a check for 1 million+ dollars. There is no way any reasonable person can justify paying that much at my network. When I was 22, I could pay like 1.5k in cash. I could afford 15k car with no problems.
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much car can we afford?
Replies: 121
Views: 4671

Re: how much car can we afford?

I guess we are a bit off but not much is you believe the total costs to be maybe $6K over three years. As the OP is earnings will be $900K over three years with no increases I was figuring that this was insignificant compared to his income (less tnan 1%) and his other potential and currnet finnacia...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the price of a new car a good proxy for the expense of owning it?
Replies: 24
Views: 1461

Re: Is the price of a new car a good proxy for the expense of owning it?

Thanks. Could this mean that the endless discussions about car brands are largely based on irrational brand loyalty, recency bias, selection bias, and confirmation bias? To some extent yes. But the big differences that people argue about are not years 0-5 (call it 0-75k miles). It is year 10-15 (12...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Housing affordability - what is your take?
Replies: 39
Views: 3135

Re: Housing affordability - what is your take?

the asking price was $825,000 :shock: No, I don't live by the beach and I don't live in a ritzy area, I would classify my area as squarely middle class. Middle class? HUH? These 800k house are bought by couples (say an engineer and school teacher) that most of us think of as middle class at best. I...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck
Replies: 65
Views: 2189

Re: Importance of sequence of real returns for SWR, CAPE valuation, and Luck

But, as I understand it, this doesn't change the floor for a SWR rate from his previous studies. A .77 correlation is not something I would take to the bank. What if you work 10 more years and valuations are still high? By then you'd have saved for 10 more years and would be 10 years closer to deat...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the price of a new car a good proxy for the expense of owning it?
Replies: 24
Views: 1461

Re: Is the price of a new car a good proxy for the expense of owning it?

Obviously on an older vehicle the maintenance and repair expenses grow in proportion to the other expenses, but even then my guess is that they still track initial cost pretty well (e.g. a 10 year old BMW M3 is going to have higher maintenance expense than 10 year old Honda Accord). Sure but the qu...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the price of a new car a good proxy for the expense of owning it?
Replies: 24
Views: 1461

Re: Is the price of a new car a good proxy for the expense of owning it?

Interesting. Intuitively it makes sense, but I can't imagine the market is that efficient, though. For example: new car prices on vehicles that hold their value better than others. If the (rough) new vehicle prices are set by manufacturers, how would that account for resale value? Most of the time ...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is the price of a new car a good proxy for the expense of owning it?
Replies: 24
Views: 1461

Re: Is the price of a new car a good proxy for the expense of owning it?

I found, unsurprisingly, that the annual "total" cost to own a vehicle is directly related to the initial "cash" cost. Unsurprising in part because many expenses of owning a vehicle are directly related to its value (depreciation, financing, insurance, taxes & fees) and in part because the market f...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's the reason you would buy reading glasses at...
Replies: 33
Views: 1714

Re: What's the reason you would buy reading glasses at...

Since having Cataracts removed from both eyes I do not need glasses for distance or for driving (20/20). Do not need them for my computers (4X and HDR) but do need them for iPhone (go figure). So I buy them where ever they are cheapest (Dollar Store, etc.). Keep 2 pair around at all times. The ques...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's a good way to calculate when I have won the game??
Replies: 12
Views: 3395

Re: What's a good way to calculate when I have won the game??

What's a good way to calculate when I have won the game?? When you (and the people you hope your money will support) are dead. Up until then you are still playing the game and have a chance to lose all your money. The person with 100x of expenses all in government bonds still lost if they happened ...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much car can we afford?
Replies: 121
Views: 4671

Re: how much car can we afford?

Johussman - We are not sure how you got to that point you are now but you guys are doing great. We do not know much about your situation but you are only asking about a simple car question now. Based upon a CPO 3 series with 8,000 miles your total cost of ownership for the next 4-5 years will be ha...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much car can we afford?
Replies: 121
Views: 4671

Re: how much car can we afford?

really, you dont even say what you are looking at? why is this a serious question? you can afford a used Civic. Too expensive, IMO. Need a cheaper car. Ha! yeah right. I really like this site but buying cars is where this site fails. Buying anything is where this site fails. Financially buying just...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: nytimes buy vs rent calc does not consider new tax law
Replies: 8
Views: 1184

Re: nytimes buy vs rent calc does not consider new tax law

Presumably the calculator was not also updated for the majority of the population for whom these limits do not impact, but received a significant income tax reduction due to an increase in the standard deduction and a reduction in income tax rates. These items would allow more after tax income to b...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 12, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much car can we afford?
Replies: 121
Views: 4671

Re: how much car can we afford?

Bah it is easy to blow through 50 billion or so. Between buying the yankees, giants Ugh... why would one spend money on NY teams?? Oh wait, I get it. Buy them, then disband them! Brilliant! Your right I should have bought the dallas cowboys and LA lakers to get more diversified portfolio. And we sh...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 12, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"
Replies: 198
Views: 16375

Re: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"

... what I would like see Vanguard do is create Admiral shares of the Target Retirement funds, with perhaps a $25K or $50K minimum. I’ve always been baffled that there is no Admiral share class of the target risk or target date funds at Vanguard but apparently it’s a regulatory challenge in part. h...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 12, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: how much car can we afford?
Replies: 121
Views: 4671

Re: how much car can we afford?

really, you dont even say what you are looking at? why is this a serious question? you can afford a used Civic. I'm looking at a BMW 3 series certified pre owned about 40k with 8k miles on it Buying that car means that you will not be able to afford other things that you might want. Buying *anythin...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Massive small cap tilt with low equity AA - anybody do this?
Replies: 8
Views: 797

Re: Massive small cap tilt with low equity AA - anybody do this?

Search for "Larry Portfolio". How much to believe in the small and value premiums is a tough one If you look at historical data, there is pretty much no reason not to go 100% small value. The periods of underperformance and the amount just isn't that big. But past doesn't dictate future. With how po...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do billionaires reduce taxes?
Replies: 7
Views: 1081

Re: How do billionaires reduce taxes?

"It depends" but a lot of billionaires are principals in one or more businesses. So they have a lot of their wealth tied up in private equity or other corporate stock. Sometimes liquidating that is a really big deal and has unacceptable trade offs like losing control of the company or causing the s...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 12, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: iORP Monte Carlo vs FireCalc
Replies: 8
Views: 817

Re: iORP Monte Carlo vs FireCalc

Now, I expect Monte Carlo is not the 'best' way to run this sim, since it assumes completely random returns from year to year. iORP doesn't actually assume completely random returns from year to year. It attempts to incorporate some kind of mean reversion or trend or something. Most likely you'll n...
by randomguy
Fri Aug 10, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Average expenses in MCOL area for a family of 4
Replies: 50
Views: 2289

Re: Average expenses in MCOL area for a family of 4

In my MCOL area a 330k house is either a 3500-4000 square foot "McMansion" or a 2500 sq ft home in an older and highly desirable part of town. These houses have basements with usable finished square footage, though. My 260k purchase price (appraisal approx 300k) is about 3000 sq. ft including the b...
by randomguy
Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"
Replies: 198
Views: 16375

Re: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"

I don't need customer service. I do everything online, and it's very easy to use Vanguard to do what I do. On the rare occasion that I've needed to contact Vanguard's staff for some reason, they've been fine. That is my experience as well. I have never called VG or Fidelity in over 20 years of acco...
by randomguy
Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Average expenses in MCOL area for a family of 4
Replies: 50
Views: 2289

Re: Average expenses in MCOL area for a family of 4

Surprised not to see any responses. Thought this might be something that folks would like to discuss and compare to see if they are spending more or less. And what does that tell you. You are obviously spending ~2-3x as much as the average family of 4. But who cares if you can afford it. You could ...
by randomguy
Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I pay 6000.00 to repair wife's car....
Replies: 77
Views: 4433

Re: Should I pay 6000.00 to repair wife's car....

Goodness, a 7-8 year old vehicle with 14,000 miles? Sell the car, and get her the Uber Ridesharing and/or Lyft Ridesharing APPs. Her usage is so low, probably even using taxis would save money, considering even with low mileage vehicles must be insured. Broken Man 1999 right?! this was the first po...
by randomguy
Fri Aug 10, 2018 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Average expenses in MCOL area for a family of 4
Replies: 50
Views: 2289

Re: Average expenses in MCOL area for a family of 4

Surprised not to see any responses. Thought this might be something that folks would like to discuss and compare to see if they are spending more or less. And what does that tell you. You are obviously spending ~2-3x as much as the average family of 4. But who cares if you can afford it. You could ...
by randomguy
Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Would you pay this mortgage off?
Replies: 51
Views: 4001

Re: Would you pay this mortgage off?

Perfect. Debt is a ball and chain when it comes to wealth creation :mrgreen: :mrgreen: I'd pay it off too. I think a lot of recency bias around here. Market looks great and the housing market is roaring. Keeping a mortgage and investing looks like a no brainer. Any money past maxxing out tax deferr...
by randomguy
Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer will not indemnify me cause I am retired
Replies: 56
Views: 5215

Re: Employer will not indemnify me cause I am retired

Not exactly the same but this was talked about a while back: https://www.physicianonfire.com/hospital-board-sued/

And observational, nonvoting role resulted in a 3.5 year lawsuit and tens of thousands of dollars of legal expenses.
by randomguy
Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Minivan Vs SUV Experience
Replies: 105
Views: 6175

Re: Minivan Vs SUV Experience

However I really don't get the attraction of the small or mid-sized CUV (Rav4/CRV/Equinox/etc) for childless couples or singles. I'd rather have the better handling/braking/acceleration/gas mileage of the equivalent class sedan, but then again I'm a dying breed. :) And most CUV owners would go they...
by randomguy
Thu Aug 09, 2018 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Minivan Vs SUV Experience
Replies: 105
Views: 6175

Re: Minivan Vs SUV Experience

As you will tell from my review below, I am firmly on the minivan side. I purchased a 2018 Chrysler Pacifica. Technology, comfort, luxury, safety, responsiveness, passing power. It crushes the SUVs in every category except for ground clearance and towing capacity of larger SUVs. The adaptive cruise...
by randomguy
Wed Aug 08, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Minivan Vs SUV Experience
Replies: 105
Views: 6175

Re: Minivan Vs SUV Experience

Car and Driver ranks the Volvo XC90 as 4.5 / 5.0 and awards it the editor's choice. C&D takes paid advertising. CR does not. May or may not be an issue, but advertising income could potentially color reviews and recommendations. People say that but there is a much simpler explanation. C&D is a moto...
by randomguy
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone regret paying off mortgage early?
Replies: 504
Views: 108718

Re: Anyone regret paying off mortgage early?

No, we've never regretted paying off our mortgage early. Housing security is worth a lot. Did you calculate how much eliminating leverage cost you? Is it worth more than that? What good would it do to analyze whether a decision that's already been made was optimal? That can't be undone. We can only...