Search found 7617 matches

by randomguy
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Keep 12 yr old bmw?
Replies: 21
Views: 1346

Re: Keep 12 yr old bmw?

Keep it, my 1998 328i with 94K has been extremely reliable. It has never burned a drop of oil and the only thing that does not work is the sound system. Not sure extremely reliable and broken sound system go together:) Personally i would expect getting to 100k miles with no issues to be pretty much...
by randomguy
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 420
Views: 35938

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

My question is ... if rental properties are so amazing, why don't the banks, who give us 80% of the money for the purchase of these places, just buy them all, have their own management company, and just own the world? There are some trying for sure: https://www.blackstone.com/the-firm/asset-managem...
by randomguy
Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 420
Views: 35938

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I started buying rental properties (single family houses) back in the 70's. Back then I could buy them with a little cash down and assume the existing mortgage. Later I paid them all off. My cash flow as a percentage of my out of pocket cash invested runs around 36%. The cash flow on a stock bought...
by randomguy
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Volvo CPO Extended Warranty
Replies: 21
Views: 527

Re: Volvo CPO Extended Warranty

Absolutely no way should you spend $3000 on this extended warranty. The vehicle already comes with a 5 year / unlimited mile warranty! And you'll "most likely" trade up in ~7 years. So you'd be paying $3000 for just 2 years of coverage. No you are paying 3k for 5 years of coverage. The last 3 years...
by randomguy
Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 420
Views: 35938

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

Don’t take this the wrong way but have you considered your dad is not a good real estate investor? And yes, real estate investing is not difficult for me but like I had previously stated, I come from a family with strong business background. Great. You should do real estate full time since it is so...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 420
Views: 35938

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

1-2% isn't the worst case. The worst case is more like -3%/year for a decade or so to go along with falling rents as prices correct from the bubble they are in. That might not be such a great investment. Of course we may or may not be in a bubble. The thing with trends is that they can last a long ...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we retire in 4 years?
Replies: 31
Views: 3642

Re: Should we retire in 4 years?

Check back in 3 years. Realistically you could have like 700k to 2 million dollars and ACA may or may not exist. At a high level 45k with 1.2 million is plenty. I assume in 16 years SS will cover 50%+ of expenses.
by randomguy
Sun Jun 16, 2019 10:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 420
Views: 35938

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I don’t really see how it works unless you assume reasonable appreciation. Hasn't pretty much every HCOL area had reasonable appreciation over the past 20 years? In LCOL areas it is all about making money on rents. In HCOL it is all about paying the mortgage with rents and making tons of money off ...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 420
Views: 35938

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

I don’t really see how it works unless you assume reasonable appreciation. Hasn't pretty much every HCOL area had reasonable appreciation over the past 20 years? In LCOL areas it is all about making money on rents. In HCOL it is all about paying the mortgage with rents and making tons of money off ...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So much for financial predictions, eh?
Replies: 46
Views: 4152

Re: So much for financial predictions, eh?

Let’s look at the evidence. The stock market last peaked in August 2018. If you had a 60/40 portfolio and “owned the market” for bonds, you’d still be down as of the end of May. If you had owned Long Term Treasuries instead, you’d be up 2.6%. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Article on high deductible health plans - and the math
Replies: 104
Views: 6733

Re: Article on high deductible health plans - and the math

I wonder if the rise of direct primary care providers will make HDHP plans a better choice. DPC providers in my area offer family memberships for $150 per month. That provides unlimited primary care visits. Perhaps that combination makes sense for some. That seems expensive. Wouldn't you need to ha...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?
Replies: 420
Views: 35938

Re: Why are you NOT buying rental properties?

(5) Buy below market value. I don't think that's been possible for at least a couple of years in our area. Houses are on the market for days, sometimes hours, and are regularly bought with cash and no contingencies, not even an inspection. Rents are increasing but certainly not at the same pace as ...
by randomguy
Sat Jun 15, 2019 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to teach my 4 year old to be fluent in Spanish?
Replies: 25
Views: 1880

Re: Best way to teach my 4 year old to be fluent in Spanish?

Hire a Spanish speaking nanny. Move to Spain or Central America😁 You are going to find it tough to get enough hours in to be fluent with classes and play dates. And if their best friend is a native Spanish speaker, their parents will want their kid speaking english with yours😁 What you can learn is...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What would your housing preference be with 4 kids?
Replies: 41
Views: 2889

Re: Walkout Ranch or 2 story with finished basement with kids?

10 years is a long time and it sounds like the one kid will be there 17. Every basement I have been in still feels like a basement no matter how nice. Even 9’ ceilings and a wall of glass one side isn’t enough. But my bigger concern is noise. You tend to hear the people above you. Normally you ignor...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:20 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy Mini-Van Tomorrow or No?
Replies: 59
Views: 3199

Re: Buy Mini-Van Tomorrow or No?

I would kill myself if I had to buy a minivan....so NO! Minivans are awesome if you have kids. And once you have kids, killing yourself is no longer an option! I would get the Pacifica IF it’s the hybrid. Otherwise go Honda/Toyota. EDIT: I bought an Odyssey brand new for $30k. So $30k used for the ...
by randomguy
Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buy Mini-Van Tomorrow or No?
Replies: 59
Views: 3199

Re: Buy Mini-Van Tomorrow or No?

Yes- you'll love the mini van. Chryslers are just fine, I've noticed no significant difference in reliability between Chryslers, Hondas and Toyotas my family has owned. Maybe luck. but that's my experience. My experience is the chrsylers are dying at 135k miles while the Toyotas/Honda's start dying...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend an American medium size car
Replies: 32
Views: 2288

Re: Recommend an American medium size car

<snip...> And FWIW when I buy a BMW the profits don't go to Germany. They go into my pocket:). How do you figure that? If you work as a supplier to the BMW plant, your cost is part of the MSRP. If you work as an assembler in the plant, your cost is part of the MSRP (labor, material, burden costs). ...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend an American medium size car
Replies: 32
Views: 2288

Re: Recommend an American medium size car

The depreciation is all at buying time when you pick one up for 20% off MSRP. Depreciation after that isn't really that high. Many cars are bought for 20% or more off of the MSRP. Even with an American car you would have a hard time buying a six month old car for 20% less than than you could by it ...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Karsten (Early Retirement Now) Pens a Challenge to Merriman and the Small/Value Premium
Replies: 44
Views: 3821

Re: Karsten (Early Retirement Now) Pens a Serious Challenge to Merriman and the Small/Value Premium

Honestly, I think that Karsten's analysis is a little flawed. Take a look at his main chart. https://i0.wp.com/earlyretirementnow.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/ValueSizePremium-Chart01.png?w=908&ssl=1 From 1926-1940, 1974-1981, and 1989-2001, the value premium was zero or negative. The small premi...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Downsides of VPW?
Replies: 101
Views: 6772

Re: Downsides of VPW?

If I'm understanding this right, the catch to that alternative method is that it introduces some Sequencing of Return Risk (SoRR), which is arguably the greatest risk a portfolio is exposed to in early retirement. VPW has no SoRR. Yeah but it has a lot of sequence of income risk. This is a terrific...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Downsides of VPW?
Replies: 101
Views: 6772

Re: Downsides of VPW?

Makes sense. I'm definitely not embracing the idea of significant life exension. I am however thinking the probability of reaching the upper edges of what we think of as old and probably frail or with significant cognitive decline are pretty high. Longevity averages are very deceptive. Most people ...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend an American medium size car
Replies: 32
Views: 2288

Re: Recommend an American medium size car

Maybe he wants a used American car because of their high depreciation, not out of nationalism? The depreciation is all at buying time when you pick one up for 20% off MSRP. Depreciation after that isn't really that high. If you defintion of american is GM, ford, or maybe Chrysler if your being gene...
by randomguy
Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anything you wish you had spent money on when you were younger?
Replies: 71
Views: 6456

Re: Anything you wish you had spent money on when you were younger?

yeahman wrote:
Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:32 pm
Nobody regrets not buying those $300 shoes 10 years ago.
I regret not buying running shoes more often 10 years ago. I had a half dozen injuries which I link to trying to get too many miles (i.e. keep them 4 months instead of 3). Wasted a lot of good training to save 75 bucks.
by randomguy
Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 15K CAR with comfortable seats and quiet
Replies: 51
Views: 3888

Re: 15K CAR with comfortable seats and quiet

Criteria are a bit contradictory. Comfortable seat and quit suggest a premium car, but premium cars are usually not great on gas (at least compared to the other options). Driving noise is dominated by tires. As suggested, switching the tires would be a good start. Another simple solution is wear ea...
by randomguy
Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thinking of leasing bmw 3 series
Replies: 56
Views: 4225

Re: Thinking of leasing bmw 3 series

My 2009 535i with 162,000 miles on it (purchased brand new; ordered it): 4 high pressure fuel pumps 2 fuel pumps 2 turbo waste gates 1 water pump 2 batteries 1 transmission 1 set of fuel injectors 1 set of ignition coils 2 sets of spark plugs 4? sets of brake rotors Hopefully your mileage was ok to...
by randomguy
Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Thinking of leasing bmw 3 series
Replies: 56
Views: 4225

Re: Thinking of leasing bmw 3 series

There is a reason why Dave Ramsey calls leases, fleeces. Guess? Because pithy slogans appeal to his listeners most of whom have horrible financial practices and discipline?:) If you are getting new cars every 5 or 6years, leases are a somewhat sane way of going. They do require you to get a good pr...
by randomguy
Tue Jun 11, 2019 9:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18485

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

And why would that matters after I made money from my imputed rent over several years? I had made my money without selling the house. My PITI drop too because the property tax is going down. KlangFool Because with your luck you bought at the top.:) You were cash flow positive for 1 year and cash fl...
by randomguy
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18485

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

And why would that matters after I made money from my imputed rent over several years? I had made my money without selling the house. My PITI drop too because the property tax is going down. KlangFool Because with your luck you bought at the top.:) You were cash flow positive for 1 year and cash fl...
by randomguy
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18485

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

When housing prices crashed in the last recession rents did not also crash. They barely blipped and in many areas they continues to increase because there was more demand for rent as peoples homes were being foreclosed. Rent and home prices generally move together but home prices are much more vola...
by randomguy
Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18485

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

rossbow, And, why would that matter to me? I bought the house to live and stabilize my housing expense. The house's value could be zero and I still make money from my imputed rent. Please note that I consider the whole PITI as housing expense: P = Principal, I = Interest. This house is "cash flow p...
by randomguy
Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I buy a house in Nova/DC area?
Replies: 23
Views: 2056

Re: Should I buy a house in Nova/DC area?

This poster’s situation is different than most in that he will live overseas rent-free. So, assuming he rents DC house out, even if the money from the incoming rent doesn’t quite cover the mortgage, it’s not the end of the world as he’s still far ahead. Also check the schools. Sterling is in Loudou...
by randomguy
Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?
Replies: 233
Views: 12240

Re: I'm thinking about buying a supercar anyone here done this and feedback?

I’ll second what another poster mentioned earlier. To truly have fun with these types of cars you need to drive them on the track. Driving them on the street is mostly pointless and somewhat frustrating when traffic and speed limits prevent you from unleashing it’s potential. To have driving fun, y...
by randomguy
Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18485

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

I think there are two categories of homeowners: a) those who will acknowledge some level of regrets, b) the delusional I think there are 2 categories of renters a) those who will acknowledge some level of regrets b) the delusional.:) I know I sure regret renting a house instead of buying. That choi...
by randomguy
Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Instead of bonds; why not 100% Low Vol?
Replies: 8
Views: 1515

Re: Instead of bonds; why not 100% Low Vol?

So, even assuming that 100% low volatility has had about the same risk and return as 70/30, what is the point? Is it just some kind of tour-de-force to show that you can do without bonds? Historically though you have had the same risk but higher returns. Larry did an article a while back on this (h...
by randomguy
Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I buy a house in Nova/DC area?
Replies: 23
Views: 2056

Re: Should I buy a house in Nova/DC area?

I wouldn't buy a house for 3 years. If you keep it as a rental, you are going to have to hire a property management company and I expect you would barely be break even at best. Sell it and transaction costs will kill you. I am not sure exactly where you are working (DC or fairfax) but the commute fr...
by randomguy
Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get good at a racket sport without coaching?
Replies: 43
Views: 1326

Re: How to get good at a racket sport without coaching?

I don't know anything about squash, so take this with a grain of salt, but... if you're not 5.0 (or whatever) by the time you're 42, you'll never be. I realize this doesn't help answer your question, but I say it to perhaps help you consider spending your time and efforts more effectively. My apolo...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 6515

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

It's definitely better diversification than just the stock market (or stocks/bonds), and it does relatively well with inflation. The single location isn't really equivalent to a single stock... Places like the current economic centers of the coasts will continue to do well even if some of the leadi...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 6515

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

Real estate is indeed about individual markets, so, yeah, you don't buy some random property somewhere or an index, but it's not rocket science. A couple of good properties in desirable and economically strong parts of the country give you good diversification from stocks-only or stocks with bonds ...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 6515

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

You still run into the problem that everything we talk about is the past and the past doesn't dictate the futures. Given past results 100% SV would be an easy choice. Win big a lot of times, and lose small the rest. But who knows what the future will bring. We could have had a lucky 100 year stock ...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18485

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

So, the OP was not talking about "investing". Your home is not an investment. It is simply where you live. I am not taking about buying homes for rental or investing and neither was the OP. No matter the fluctuations of house prices, when you pay your mortgage you are paying yourself really. You ar...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18485

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

So, the OP was not talking about "investing". Your home is not an investment. It is simply where you live. I am not taking about buying homes for rental or investing and neither was the OP. No matter the fluctuations of house prices, when you pay your mortgage you are paying yourself really. You ar...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sports classes in Universities
Replies: 60
Views: 3363

Re: Sports classes in Universities

There's a large sub set of universities that have a pledge that all their students have to know how to swim well enough so as to not drown! I remember having to take a swim test at freshman orientation and those who failed had to take swim classes. I think you had to just tread water for a few minu...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Sports classes in Universities
Replies: 60
Views: 3363

Re: Sports classes in Universities

You should always sign up for the class on Football 101..if nothing else you will be more accurate when talking to the fan sitting to you about how mad the coaching is. Even better if you are sitting next to a coaches wife. It is probably a tough course. You will have all the freshman football play...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18485

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

To OP: The topic of rent vs buy is quite simple: 1. If you plan to sell your house in less than 5 years , don’t bother with buying since transaction cost will mostly likely wipe out any benefits with home ownership. 2. If you don’t live in a HCOL places like SF, Seattle, Boston, NYC, LA or wealthy ...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18485

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

So, the OP was not talking about "investing". Your home is not an investment. It is simply where you live. I am not taking about buying homes for rental or investing and neither was the OP. No matter the fluctuations of house prices, when you pay your mortgage you are paying yourself really. You ar...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18485

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

1. Outside some of the really hot real estate markets like the Bay Area, it's quite hard to actually make a real profit owning your own home, especially in the shorter term, if you count EVERY single expense of home owning from the fertilizer you put on your lawn to the dishwasher you have to repla...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18485

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

Rent is the ceiling of what you will pay for housing per month. With buying, the mortgage/PMI payment is just the floor... If I pay 6k/month in mortgage payments and my house appreciates 6k/month, is my mortgage really the floor? Sounds likely... :eyeroll: Well for the past 25 or so years that has ...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 6515

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

For fun do 10 year and 20 year charts. Over 10 years I expect stocks to get beaten by a lot more. Over 20, I expect the success rate of beating sticks to plummet. The first chart was definitely for fun, but it took long enough that two more sound like a chore. :wink: But in my experience you're abs...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 6515

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

To me, the big take-home is that the correct statement is "stocks usually have beaten bonds." The problem is that "stocks usually have beaten bonds" is just not a catchy or compelling story. There is a strong urge to simplify it to "stocks always beat bonds." This urge prompts people to make carele...
by randomguy
Sun Jun 09, 2019 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?
Replies: 52
Views: 6515

Re: What percentage of time does 100% stocks win?

Ok -- I'll play. 8-) https://portfoliocharts.files.wordpress.com/2019/06/portfolios-vs-stocks.jpg The blue columns track the percentage of time that a portfolio starting from scratch and contributing $10k/year beat 100% US stocks on an inflation-adjusted compounded basis after 15 years. But that do...