Search found 8844 matches

by randomguy
Tue May 26, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?
Replies: 67
Views: 5139

Re: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?

Grt2bOutdoors wrote:
Tue May 26, 2020 6:39 pm

Given enough money, time and patience, one could hold 30/70 up to 80/20 and be fine. The only difference will be bragging rights as to who died with the most money.
i think the difference bragging rights betweenn retiring at 55 versus 70 is also pretty noticeable:)
by randomguy
Mon May 25, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New TVs with built-in Roku
Replies: 31
Views: 1423

Re: New TVs with built-in Roku

bob60014 wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 5:44 pm
You can bypass, though I am not sure why one would want to.
Well in 5 years when the Rooku in your TV isn't powerful enough to run the new stuff, you want to upgrade. TV screens are probably good for 10-15 years these days. I wouldn't bet on any of the apps my TV comes with lasting that long.
by randomguy
Mon May 25, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Del Webb 55+ communities?
Replies: 24
Views: 3611

Re: Del Webb 55+ communities?

But more generally, how do those in these "over 55" communities plan for "what's next"? For most people, there *will* be "something next", be it skilled nursing, memory problems, or "only" extra/significant assistance needed? RM My experiences is they prepare the same way people who don't live in o...
by randomguy
Mon May 25, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?
Replies: 86
Views: 4157

Re: Tips to stick to a weight loss diet?

I also believe that losing weight is ~90% what you eat and only ~10% related to activity. Health is a different story - we need a combination of both to truly be healthy. I once lost 60lbs mostly by diet with a moderate amount of exercise, and after I worried about having a non-supportive goal dist...
by randomguy
Mon May 25, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?
Replies: 67
Views: 5139

Re: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?

1789 wrote:
Mon May 25, 2020 12:20 pm
How about starting with 30% US stocks and 70% US bonds and see gradually increasing to 50/50 eventually?
You mean in about 7 years when the next bull market is just about to end?:) Upping risk when the market is doing well seems like it will result in poor performance over the long run.
by randomguy
Mon May 25, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?
Replies: 67
Views: 5139

Re: I have no risk tolerance: where am I supposed to keep my money?

It's a somewhat tongue-in-cheek question but I'm also somewhat serious. Recent market volatility is making me sick, to the point where I've learned that I'm not sure I can handle it. I am not so idealistic as to believe that stocks always go up. The stock market did not recoup it's 1929 crash until...
by randomguy
Mon May 25, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If Jeep has such poor reliability, how come they are everywhere?
Replies: 109
Views: 7460

Re: If Jeep has such poor reliability, how come they are everywhere?

So there's a Jeep cult like there is a Subaru cult? Is there something wrong with Subarus? My impression is that they rank pretty high in the automotive pecking order, perhaps right behind Toyota and Honda. Bland, slow, loud, and notorious engine oil issues. Cheapest way into an AWD car though. Don...
by randomguy
Sun May 24, 2020 10:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If Jeep has such poor reliability, how come they are everywhere?
Replies: 109
Views: 7460

Re: If Jeep has such poor reliability, how come they are everywhere?

It seems that Jeep vehicles are nearly legendary for their poor reliability ratings, and yet I see them everywhere like dandelions. Why are they so popular when they have such a poor reputation? It’s funny... just this morning on my daily walk I came across a house that had three Land Rovers parked...
by randomguy
Sun May 24, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Businesses that are permanently destroyed due to COVID?
Replies: 34
Views: 2704

Re: Businesses that are permanently destroyed due to COVID

Drive in movie theaters may make a comeback. You really think there are hoards of people who want to watch a movie in their car with it's crappy sound systems and so-so picture versus watching it at home with their hidef TV and much better sound systems? Other than teenagers looking to get away. fr...
by randomguy
Sat May 23, 2020 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?
Replies: 169
Views: 13049

Re: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?

For people who think they can move out of Bay Area and continue to make Bay Area salary working remotely: "Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg on Thursday said he predicts that 50% of the company’s employees could be working remotely within the next five to 10 years. “We’re going to be the most forward-le...
by randomguy
Sat May 23, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6948

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy

Like some one else mentioned earlier in the thread - Taleb got it right in 1987 (the crash which made him Financially Independent), 2008 and the 2020 crash. There is a possibility that he is always short and hence always gets it right whenever the market dives. Maybe, but Taleb was right on the mon...
by randomguy
Sat May 23, 2020 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: NJ property taxes too high. What are my alternative states?
Replies: 61
Views: 4384

Re: NJ property taxes too high. What are my alternative states?

I don't know about New Jersey, but in Ohio property taxes vary a lot depending on the community. Moving even a short distance can result in much higher or lower taxes, depending on the city/town/village/township you move to. NJ is the same way. A 450k house can be almost 16k in one town and "only" ...
by randomguy
Sat May 23, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 46
Views: 2697

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

I have to admit that I have never really understood P2P lending. I keep thinking of the Groucho Marx quote; I Don’t Want to Belong to Any Club That Will Accept Me as a Member. For whatever the reason commercial lenders are not lending money to the people asking for P2P loans. I doubt that I am smar...
by randomguy
Fri May 22, 2020 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6948

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Hi Klang, The reason is because it lets you quantify and rank strategies. For example, if your goal is to, once per year, spend $2 with the hope of becoming a millionaire: what is the best way to do it (the way with the highest chance of success)? Assuming Arctic's -50% is roughly correct, a much b...
by randomguy
Fri May 22, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6948

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

That is the real question. I would worry about sampling issues. What if I am right every 10 years on average with one of these calls? The odds of not being right over 30 or 40 years is pretty darn high. History is full of people that made the right call for a decade. The list that make it to 30 yea...
by randomguy
Fri May 22, 2020 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 6948

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosphy

Taleb has a very convoluted, obfuscated way of saying "personally, I like to play long shots." long shots with a huge payoff. Perhaps it's rational. And, he had got it right and won big twice. So, there should be some merit in his method. KlangFool His funds don't have results that are posted publi...
by randomguy
Fri May 22, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I freaked out…now what?
Replies: 60
Views: 6065

Re: I freaked out…now what?

I’ve never sold on fear in my life and know better, but on 3/13 I sold 100% of my investments. My investments were about a 50/50 allocation. You have the wrong AA for you since you sold based on fear. Maybe 40/60 is a better AA for your tolerance level. You really think 40/60 would have made a diff...
by randomguy
Fri May 22, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I freaked out…now what?
Replies: 60
Views: 6065

Re: I freaked out…now what?

I’ve never sold on fear in my life and know better, but on 3/13 I sold 100% of my investments. My investments were about a 50/50 allocation. You have the wrong AA for you since you sold based on fear. Maybe 40/60 is a better AA for your tolerance level. You really think 40/60 would have made a diff...
by randomguy
Thu May 21, 2020 7:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I freaked out…now what?
Replies: 60
Views: 6065

Re: I freaked out…now what?

I’ve never sold on fear in my life and know better, but on 3/13 I sold 100% of my investments. My investments were about a 50/50 allocation. You have the wrong AA for you since you sold based on fear. Maybe 40/60 is a better AA for your tolerance level. You really think 40/60 would have made a diff...
by randomguy
Thu May 21, 2020 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tesla Y test drive
Replies: 37
Views: 3329

Re: Tesla Y test drive

When I was mentioning the highway speed sound, my son ask why don't they put noise cancelling inside the car to cancel the tire and wind noise? He's right shouldn't that be pretty easy, since it's such old technology? The noise cancelling tech shouldn't disrupt horns, ambulance, fire dept trucks et...
by randomguy
Wed May 20, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?
Replies: 51
Views: 3559

Re: Safely disinfecting frozen food packages from corona virus?

I just put them in the freezer. I'm not aware of any cases where someone has caught the virus from handling frozen food packaging. True but it would be almost impossible to trace an infection back to something like that. I can see worrying a bit about a door handle (imagine it is touched by 100+ pe...
by randomguy
Wed May 20, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Suggested Portfolio from Vanguard PAS
Replies: 16
Views: 895

Re: Suggested Portfolio from Vanguard PAS

Hi all! I posted back in April about moving away from Edward Jones to Vanguard PAS. Thank you for all the advice. (https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=312855&p=5206277#p5206277) Given that I have a high risk tolerance and am 27, they have suggested the following allocation for me: ...
by randomguy
Wed May 20, 2020 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?
Replies: 188
Views: 13911

Re: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?

OP, I would nudge you to think about either moving up, or moving down in brand status. A fully loaded CX-5 (of which I own, and absolutely love), or Kia/Hyundai/Honda/Toyota CUV etc will almost certainly match or even beat a mid 40k-ish brand from your list. Or, just get a real luxury brand like a ...
by randomguy
Wed May 20, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If an Investor wants a 95% probability of Stocks outperforming Bonds, they better...
Replies: 11
Views: 1500

Re: If an Investor wants a 95% probability of Stocks outperforming Bonds, they better...

Larry Swedroe's book on factor-based investing had an table that stated there was a 96% possibility of market beta beating the return on the one-month U.S. Treasury bill over a 20-year span in an analysis from 1927-2015. For another modern example, 1950-1980 and 1981-2011 were both periods of time ...
by randomguy
Wed May 20, 2020 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: artificial intelligence ETFs
Replies: 20
Views: 1597

Re: THNQ artificial intelligence ETF

When did attlasian (TEAM) become AI focused? yeah, I don't like that THNQ contains TEAM, WIX, and a few other similar stocks. But, the index description does remark that it tracks essentially the AI ecosystem, so, basically you get some companies that make products that are used for AI development ...
by randomguy
Wed May 20, 2020 1:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15420

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

How does Small Caps and International in the mix affect the 4% rule? Small Caps are ridiculously volatile and just wondering how the SWR is affected due to that, I have 22% of my portfolio in the S&P 600 and another 20% in International... that's 42% of my portfolio in assets that have had a disast...
by randomguy
Wed May 20, 2020 1:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15420

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

2) True but how to do you account for this? How much of the performance of 1945-1960 was a result of the war? How much of the success of the countries that weren't ravaged was a result of poorer competition When you look at the eleven countries where the safemax in Pfau's paper (linked above) was b...
by randomguy
Tue May 19, 2020 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?
Replies: 188
Views: 13911

Re: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?

I love it when people think a $80k car will depreciate to $40k in 2 years. Some embellishments are OK, but holy cow! The joke was that in order for the 80k to fit into the price range the OP was looking for, you would need a ton of deprecation. I am actually not up on Maserati deprecation but. if y...
by randomguy
Tue May 19, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Potential relocation, how concerned should I be with a 4/10 school?
Replies: 32
Views: 2453

Re: Potential relocation, how concerned should I be with a 4/10 school?

I bet if you look at the schools. in detail, you will see a break down along the lines of 9+ for white/asian students who aren't receiving government program aid 2-4 for ESL students, disadvantaged househoulds for pretty much every school (ignoring magnets and like) in the state. If a school is an 9...
by randomguy
Tue May 19, 2020 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15420

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

1. Most of this research assumes that retirees were only investing in their home country. International diversification would have benefited retirees in many nations. 2. Many, perhaps most, of the countries where the '4% rule of thumb' failed were ravaged by war during the period under interest. Th...
by randomguy
Tue May 19, 2020 5:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?
Replies: 188
Views: 13911

Re: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?

With Maserati depreciation, you can probably get the 80k MSRP car for 40k after 2 years:) I have no doubt it is has better materials than the 45k cars this thread started with. But I also expect the TCO to be noticeably higher just from gas consumption alone. But the gas consumption is worth it, si...
by randomguy
Tue May 19, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?
Replies: 188
Views: 13911

Re: Some possible luxury SUV choices to buy: Opinions?

I'm an engineer at FCA, so please take my comments with a grain of bias. I would highly recommend the Maserati Levante, though that might be not everyone's taste. With Maserati depreciation, you can probably get the 80k MSRP car for 40k after 2 years:) I have no doubt it is has better materials tha...
by randomguy
Tue May 19, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security is an asset....yet again
Replies: 129
Views: 5689

Re: Social Security is an asset....yet again

GAAP assets are a subset of all assets. All GAAP assets are asssets. Not all assets are GAAP assets. So, you are going outside of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, and making up your own definition? No, randomguy is choosing not to take one set of rules and apply them to the whole universe....
by randomguy
Tue May 19, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security is an asset....yet again
Replies: 129
Views: 5689

Re: Social Security is an asset....yet again

And to go back to my main original point about the Wa. Post article: The author presented "SS is an asset" as settled wisdom, when it is no such thing. I'll respect differing views, but please acknowledge that those differing views exist, especially in a non-specialist forum like the Wa Post. Since...
by randomguy
Tue May 19, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security is an asset....yet again
Replies: 129
Views: 5689

Re: Social Security is an asset....yet again

And to go back to my main original point about the Wa. Post article: The author presented "SS is an asset" as settled wisdom, when it is no such thing. I'll respect differing views, but please acknowledge that those differing views exist, especially in a non-specialist forum like the Wa Post. Since...
by randomguy
Mon May 18, 2020 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?
Replies: 92
Views: 7425

Re: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?

Thanks for the analysis randomguy. I will play with Firecalc some more. The analysis that would be really interesting is starting with a SS payment and age and then figuring out what claiming strategy maximizes your income. I have a feeling taking SS early does that for anyone who is willing to hol...
by randomguy
Mon May 18, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?
Replies: 92
Views: 7425

Re: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?

I also think a big motivation for taking social security early is it simply makes one nervous seeing a portfolio shrink every month. There is a sleep-at-night benefit from having a decent mountain of funds to use as needs arise, even if it is worthwhile to spend down this money on increased income,...
by randomguy
Mon May 18, 2020 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?
Replies: 92
Views: 7425

Re: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?

What would be the maximum withdrawal rate from a 50/50 stock/bond portfolio one would accept while delaying the start of social security? (Certainly this depends on an individual situation, so let me say that, at least personally, let's assume that, at 70 when social security started, the withdrawa...
by randomguy
Sat May 16, 2020 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund
Replies: 114
Views: 8999

Re: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund

I think the problem with equities as an emergency fund is you need a larger amount compared to LTT or cash. You can probably actually get away with a smaller emergency fund in LTT if you have a decent enough allocation of equities in you taxable account. And you need an even smalerl amount if you h...
by randomguy
Sat May 16, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15420

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

"I expect pretty much everyone goes through life matching their expenses, goals, and aspirations to their resources." But those expenses do not typically remain the same at 20,30,40,50 etc. "Most people live on a pretty steady income if they were working. I think they can do the same in retirement....
by randomguy
Sat May 16, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15420

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

calvin+hobbes wrote:
Sat May 16, 2020 7:25 am


Please point me to this life expectancy data. Thank you.
pick your favorite. My experience is all are within a year or two for my situation. Most of them have links that point out how they do their math.

https://www.newretirement.com/retiremen ... lculators/
by randomguy
Sat May 16, 2020 8:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund
Replies: 114
Views: 8999

Re: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund

What about Q4 of 2008 when LTT spiked over 17%? Even if it fell 10% over the next 2 quarters (which it did), that initial spike would have kept the overall principal high enough that you would not be selling at a loss. But I conceed it does probably make sense to have some "cash" (FDIC insured acco...
by randomguy
Fri May 15, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund
Replies: 114
Views: 8999

Re: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund

I think the volitlity of long term treasuries is the entire point of this strategy. If you need money and equities are up, sell equities. If the market has crashed, long term treasuries should have spiked in a flight to safety and you can sell those without selling equities at a loss. Also if you d...
by randomguy
Fri May 15, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15420

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

If your expenses , goals and aspirations are the same now as 20 years ago and will be the same again 20 years from now then that is great. I doubt too many folks, couples, families have that same experience. I expect pretty much everyone goes through life matching their expenses, goals, and aspirat...
by randomguy
Fri May 15, 2020 8:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Selling home - low ball negotiation
Replies: 145
Views: 12046

Re: Selling home - low ball negotiation

I'd counter 10k above asking price. They mocked you and they should know. Mocked? I don’t see that at all. This strategy is very common where I live. You list, they offer 90-92%ish, you negotiate and it usually winds up somewhere around 95% of ask. Some people read it is 10% of list price (10k for ...
by randomguy
Thu May 14, 2020 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15420

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

Life expectancy isn't the right number. Childhood deaths and people who die in their 20s don't really chance how long a 50 year old will live. And nobody is average (i.e 20% smoker, 1/3rd diabetic, 60% obese) so using that is rarely useful either. If I was 50 I would have a life expectancy of 93 wi...
by randomguy
Thu May 14, 2020 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)
Replies: 221
Views: 15420

Re: Ben Felix - How to Retire Early (The 4% Rule)

You’re saying many couples live to be in their 90s and 100s? Who’s the one moving the goalposts and not understanding the data? Avg age of death in the US is 78. https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/life-expectancy When will the nitpicking stop? All has been consistent with the s...
by randomguy
Thu May 14, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best way to simulate the retirement, living off investments ; Not touching monthly salaries
Replies: 44
Views: 3206

Re: Best way to simulate the retirement, living off investments ; Not touching monthly salaries

You may want to simulate retirement expenses, but I don’t see what you plan accomplishes. Money is money. Yes money is money unless we withdrawal from investments and think that we do not have the salaries coming , difficult to be mentally prepared. Withdrawing like 4% or more from taxable, do need...
by randomguy
Thu May 14, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?
Replies: 92
Views: 7425

Re: Does Delaying Social Security Deliver an 8% Return?

It seems like if this is really true, it would create a great arbitrage opportunity. Retiree turns 62--financial institution pays them each month what they would have gotten from SS, plus say 4%. Then if and when the retiree turns 70, they receive the higher SS payments and pay the financial instit...
by randomguy
Wed May 13, 2020 10:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Car Insurance; Bad Driver Penalty
Replies: 21
Views: 1669

Re: Car Insurance; Bad Driver Penalty

Are there other incidents on his record? Wife and I drive a lot of miles, have new cars (and hers would fall into the "luxury" category). We live in a major city. Our car insurance is only $1200 per year combined... I can't imagine why it was $3500 per year before the accident unless there are some...