Search found 9122 matches

by randomguy
Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?
Replies: 103
Views: 7001

Re: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?

11/03/08 30yr 4.33 Are you saying this isn't a drop in rates? OK, just whatever. Different concepts of math I guess. Yep we have a different concept when 06/10/09 30yr 4.76 is considered a rate drop. Must be that new math where 4.76 <4.33;) Or if you want to play slice the time periods to get the r...
by randomguy
Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?
Replies: 103
Views: 7001

Re: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?

I own long bonds but not primarily as a deflation hedge. Primarily they are to offset equity risk. Yes, rates will more likely go up than down from this point, but so what? When equities crash, rates will come back down for sure. Ok, in stagflation that won’t happen but I really can’t see a sceneri...
by randomguy
Tue Sep 08, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on condos?
Replies: 65
Views: 5727

Re: Thoughts on condos?

A lot of the time owning means throwing away a lot more money. The NYT rent vs buy calculator is a huge help on this front. In my city, renting saves a fortune compared to buying. Most of the condos here couldn't possibly be rented for enough to cover full cost of a new mortgage+property taxes+insu...
by randomguy
Tue Sep 08, 2020 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?
Replies: 103
Views: 7001

Re: Why is it never a good time to buy LT Bonds (in recent history)?

I own long bonds but not primarily as a deflation hedge. Primarily they are to offset equity risk. Yes, rates will more likely go up than down from this point, but so what? When equities crash, rates will come back down for sure. Ok, in stagflation that won’t happen but I really can’t see a sceneri...
by randomguy
Mon Sep 07, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people end up with 10-15 funds in their 401k?
Replies: 59
Views: 4358

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "There may be better investment strategies than owning just three broad-based index funds but the number of strategies that are worse is infinite." There are an infinite number of better strategies. The problem of course is when picking from those 2 infinities, you odd...
by randomguy
Mon Sep 07, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people end up with 10-15 funds in their 401k?
Replies: 59
Views: 4358

Re: Why do people end up with 10-15 funds in their 401k?

It seems like new people to the forum asking for a portfolio review often have numerous funds in their 401ks or IRAs where the number, selection, and allocation of the funds don't make much sense. Are these some kind of robo-advisor picks or do people tend to just overload on funds cause they think...
by randomguy
Sat Sep 05, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did bonds really beat stocks over the last 20 years?
Replies: 34
Views: 3675

Re: Did bonds really beat stocks over the last 20 years?

In the real world, almost all investors contribute over the course of decades. These specific date snapshots are thus pretty meaningless. I think this is the wrong way to look at it. The reality is many people — especially folks on this forum — will spend as much time, if not more, spending down a ...
by randomguy
Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?
Replies: 102
Views: 9252

Re: Carry on or Take your toys and go home ?

Mid to Late career your new money is much smaller impact than saved money. I put in a decent chunk every year but it isn’t a large fraction of the total portfolio anymore. Say you salt away $50K a year in your mid 50s with a $1M portfolio. If that last 10 years is 0 real you’re not screwed but it s...
by randomguy
Thu Sep 03, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting out of a recently purchased condo
Replies: 32
Views: 5132

Re: Getting out of a recently purchased condo

Apples ≠ oranges Flooring / carpeting issues ≠ foundation issues Value is absolutely destroyed on a for sale property with disclosed foundation issues. Especially at this price point. Put yourself in the shoes of a potential buyer: “Gee, the sellers bought a $1.7M house, put this place on the marke...
by randomguy
Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawl Strategy
Replies: 25
Views: 3226

Re: Withdrawl Strategy

[quote=marcopolo post_id=5466751 time=1598853717 user_id=114789 To clarify the problem a) How many kids are we talking about and how roughly how many years at home are we talking. If it just the 2 of you the cliff is at ~66k b) What is the estimated spend/year? c) What is the rough size of taxable ...
by randomguy
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting out of a recently purchased condo
Replies: 32
Views: 5132

Re: Getting out of a recently purchased condo

This is not a recommendation because I know very little about these firms, but have you talked to any of those “we’ll buy any house, in any condition” businesses? Assuming that getting an offer from one of them has cost or obligation to you, what do you have to lose? If the offer is too low, you go...
by randomguy
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cardio alternatives to treadmills?
Replies: 107
Views: 7208

Re: Cardio alternatives to treadmills?

Jump rope. :thumbsup Jumping rope is higher impact than walking on a treadmill. Not sure if that is a great idea. Heck walking on a treadmill is such low impact that I am hesitant to suggest pretty much anything else. Swimming and rowing are both low impact but they do require the back muscles to w...
by randomguy
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your game plan as market is reaching its previous all time high?
Replies: 174
Views: 19115

Re: What is your game plan as market is reaching its previous all time high?

Don't we want the market to reach all-time highs? :) it is at near all time highs I know, it "feels" high... but look at a chart of the Dow for the last 30 years. You won't even be able to count the number of days it made an all-time high. Why is today of concern, and not any of the other all-time ...
by randomguy
Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: charging an EV
Replies: 250
Views: 14842

Re: charging an EV

That is the EV fantasy. Reality so far hasn't matched up to it. Go look at any of the maintenance logs for the 200k+ mile Teslas and you will not find a single one that is on the original drive train. Most of them are on 3 or 4. Yeah I'm gonna need to see these maintenance logs you're talking about...
by randomguy
Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cardio alternatives to treadmills?
Replies: 107
Views: 7208

Re: Cardio alternatives to treadmills?

I’m a big proponent of rowing machines. Good full body workout that lets you get your heart rate up and even squeeze a pretty intense workout into ~10 minutes if you want to! I used to row in high school crew. Coxswain first year, number 4 port oar next two years. (Number 4 oar is a power position....
by randomguy
Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cardio alternatives to treadmills?
Replies: 107
Views: 7208

Re: Cardio alternatives to treadmills?

https://www.roguefitness.com/concept-2-erg-package If you can afford it....get all three! Posterior chain, Anterior chain and legs...... I love the concept 2 but I would hesitate to recommend it to someone with back issues. Rowing isn't horrible but I am thinking it stress most back issues more tha...
by randomguy
Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: charging an EV
Replies: 250
Views: 14842

Re: charging an EV

I read some reports that charging an EV commercially (out of your house) is more expensive than filling gas. In other words, running an EV is more expensive than running a gas car for the same mileages, can someone confirm or disconfirm this? I can't. We bought a Model X and get free charging at an...
by randomguy
Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors Were Warned.
Replies: 171
Views: 14290

Re: Investors Were Warned.

Bogleheads: The quarantine for the Coronavirus has given me an opportunity to review some old posts. I was somewhat surprised to read many old posts warning us about the risk in Small-Cap and Small-Cap Value Funds (Small-Cap Value Funds are the worst performing of all Morningstar style categories)....
by randomguy
Mon Aug 31, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do we really have to lower our Safe Withdrawal Rate to 0.5% now?
Replies: 15
Views: 2626

Re: Do we really have to lower our Safe Withdrawal Rate to 0.5% now?

GoldenFinch wrote: Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:05 am This article is an example of what can happen sometimes when a numbers person wallows in the data a little too much.
We had a long thread on this article recently. I think the general consensus was more that is what happens when a guy needs to generate clicks for his website...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 31, 2020 5:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawl Strategy
Replies: 25
Views: 3226

Re: Withdrawl Strategy

OP stated they are in the 22% tax bracket. How are you getting 0% income tax? Sure, I agree that Roth Conversions make a lot of sense if they are done in the 0% tax bracket, even with some loss of ACA tax credits The OP stated they are working and are currently in 22% tax bracket. I am assuming tha...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 31, 2020 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawl Strategy
Replies: 25
Views: 3226

Re: Withdrawl Strategy

Unless you have a large pension, and/or other source of income in retirement, it does not seem that a $1.1M Trad IRA would grow to the point where the RMDs would push you into such a high tax bracket. Hope that helps. Ok, so it was not that brief, but this stuff is complicated... Sure but he isn't ...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 30, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: charging an EV
Replies: 250
Views: 14842

Re: charging an EV

I actually think it’ll be sooner. Solid state battery tech is 2-3 years away according to Toyota. Once that hits, things get interesting quickly. 2025 according to toyota. https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a33435923/toyota-solid-state-battery-2025/ . 2025 is 4-5 years away form limited production n...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawl Strategy
Replies: 25
Views: 3226

Re: Withdrawl Strategy

The generic advice seems to be withdraw from taxable first, 401K next and ROTH last. Can i get some thoughts / wise words on this ? The generic advice is just wrong for almost everyone. For pretty much everyone in the world a blended approach (some from the 401(k), some from taxable, some from ROTH...
by randomguy
Thu Aug 27, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: charging an EV
Replies: 250
Views: 14842

Re: charging an EV

An electric engine had about 20 moving parts. An ICE engine has about 2,000. EVs should last considerably longer with significantly less maintenance aside from tires and brakes pads. Except for that whole expensive battery replacement thing. That's just a lazy straw man argument. Batteries don't ro...
by randomguy
Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 22350

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

Fair point, I'm sure noone in that situation would continue saving until they could support 200k, so you would necessarily be living closer to your means. My general point still stands though, which is why would you stop at exactly 1M? or if you did, why would you plan to spend a full 40k a year? J...
by randomguy
Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 22350

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

How much have we all made since 2008? Think about what you’re asking. Have you checked out the Boglehead approach to investing? It's buy the market early, often and hold. Retire when you have accumulated to your desired withdrawal rate. We'll make some and we'll lose some, but the long term buy and...
by randomguy
Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 22350

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

If you live well below your means before retirement, why would that change after retirement? Its really pretty easy to add margin into your expenses estimate which would not be withdrawn consistently in order to allow for a lumpy withdrawal now then as needed without invalidating a withdraw rate. I...
by randomguy
Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 22350

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

And how much richer are you today because of the massive market crash in March than you would have been if there wasn't a crash? How do you expect to make money over the next crash? Unless your playing market timing games, it is hard to make a ton off volatility. How much richer are you for investi...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 25, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24299

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

Do you think 1 in 5 of the elderly people you have known spent 6 six years in a combination of at home care, assisted living and skilled nursing before dying? That is absolutely untrue for the people I have know. Wouldn't be near 1 in 5 needing that much care. Seems low to me. In my experience it i...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24299

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

Hmm, I'm too lazy to try and dig out the stats, but I don't think anywhere near 15 to 20% of the population ends up with 2 years of in-home care, plus 2 years of assisted living, plus 2 years of skilled nursing. I believe that is way too high. I don't think the chance of two years in skilled nursin...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 22350

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

Your proposed investment allocation of 85/10/5 has the potential to have a drawdown of over 40% (that's what it did in 2008). Would you be able to stomach that kind of drawdown if it occurs after you quit your job? I know the higher stock allocation shows better success rates in the tool you posted...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 25, 2020 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 22350

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

I mention in the thread that I have a number of passions and a side hustle that I’d like to grow to maturity. Not even mentioning raising in educating my children, there is a lot more than three years worth of nonwork stuff that needs my attention, let alone the things that I want to do. People who...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 25, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24299

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

I believe that WoW2012 has said that something like only 12% of those buy who LTCi ever file a claim pertaining to nursing home care. That's a small fraction by my estimation. And about 76% of those who need LTC in a nursing home are there fewer than three years. Those needing care in such faciliti...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Plea for Ordinary English
Replies: 128
Views: 10024

Re: A Plea for Ordinary English

It has been forty years since I retired from the US Navy, but I seem to remember that in military correspondence the first time you referred to something you spelled it out and followed it by the accepted abbreviated form. From that point on you could just use the abbreviated form. For example, Uni...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 24, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate for someone retiring at 35? Would real estate help or hurt?
Replies: 48
Views: 5448

Re: Safe withdrawal rate for someone retiring at 35? Would real estate help or hurt?

We know the benchmark is a 4% SWR for a 30 year retirement. This is challenged by today’s low yields, with a new range perhaps falling to 2.5% to 3.5%. This seems appropriate since it’s better to build in a margin of safety. The average American lives till ~80, so if he/she retired at 35, retiremen...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24299

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

Your biggest worry is $10,000 a month nursing home care (and for good reason, since your family is experiencing that). Most retired people just don't worry about it. And even then, only a small fraction of retirees (per WoW2012, who sells LTCi) will ever need nursing home care at all, and few of th...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 24, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24299

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

I don't think that anyone here at least is claiming that those on this forum should be shooting for 'average' anything. But there is a huge gulf between what the typical retiree has and what Sam Dogen is advocating. And the relevant point that several here have justly made is that if the typical re...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24299

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

I don't know if they really make things work, and whether they are miserable or not, but I do know what things cost, so I can only conclude that life must be hard for them. The good news is there is no need to keep "not knowing" about this topic: researchers have studied both retirement wealth and ...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24299

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]

The risk of a Hail Mary or 3 at the buzzer is still out there. Even in a 100% fixed income portfolio. There is always risk. The thing is most people aren't close to the buzzer. They are still 1-1.5 quarter from the end of the game for most people. The prevent D approach works until it doesn't.... O...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 24, 2020 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Umbrella Insurance - Worst Case
Replies: 142
Views: 9801

Re: Umbrella Insurance - Worst Case

I’d suggest you call a few agents and explain your situation. Maybe they can come up with a good reason you should have it. I sure can’t unless you make changes to your lifestyle (like buy/drive a vehicle). Well maybe they own a bit pull or have a pet tiger? You have your friend over and serve them...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 23, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Stuck with expensive mattress I can't return
Replies: 10
Views: 1650

Re: Stuck with expensive mattress I can't return

What can we do? I should have paid more attention to the store's policies. I will never purchase another mattress from one of these places. So you're blaming the store for your inattention? It would probably be nearly impossible to sell used (even though it is like new). Why not? Isn't Craigslist b...
by randomguy
Sat Aug 22, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24299

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]

Yes. Be able to live on fixed income investments. I am talking about a person who has a CHOICE to retire.With today’s fixed income return it is a lot more difficult of course. As I said earlier, better make sure you have a lot more money than you think you will need. Put it under the mattress amoun...
by randomguy
Sat Aug 22, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Went to Cash. Regret it. Now what?
Replies: 56
Views: 5798

Re: Went to Cash. Regret it. Now what?

Research indicates that lump sum usually beats dollar cost averaging. Here's a Vanguard article on the topic: https://investor.vanguard.com/investing/online-trading/invest-lump-sum Of course. The question is can you handle the case when it doesn't? If you were doing this move 100's of times, you wo...
by randomguy
Sat Aug 22, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it worth to relocate for retirement?
Replies: 140
Views: 13280

Re: Is it worth to relocate for retirement?

States that have high sales tax but no or low income tax and low property tax are the best from a tax perspective. Nobody can force you to spend and pay sales tax, you control that somewhat but prop and income tax you have no control at all. No states with low sales taxes and high income taxes are ...
by randomguy
Fri Aug 21, 2020 9:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: single women retirement suggestions
Replies: 62
Views: 5370

Re: single women retirement suggestions

One thing to look into is what you will need to do to give up your California tax domicile so you do not need to pay California taxes. I do not know how big of an issue that would be for you but people have posted that California can be aggressive about trying to claim that you are still required t...
by randomguy
Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Products that last forever
Replies: 238
Views: 15597

Re: Products that last forever

randomguy wrote: "And with a lot of products you run into the ship of Thesus issues where you have to ask is what you have the same as what you started with. If you replace your leatherman with a new one did it last forever? The leatherman didn't and ended up in a landfill. But your "purchase" did ...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 17, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24299

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

oldfort wrote: Mon Aug 17, 2020 6:49 pm Over the last 50 years, inflation has averaged about 3.87% in the US.
Over the past 50 years, 10 years have returned 6.8%. Given we aren't going to live the last 50 years again, I am not sure either of those numbers is overly useful.
by randomguy
Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Blanchette - Returns may be low for a long time
Replies: 21
Views: 1868

Re: David Blanchette - Returns may be low for a long time

I've heard variations of this for many years on bogleheads. When interest rates are low, it's "future returns are going to be low". When stock market reaches highs, it's "future returns are going to be low." On bogleheads: When rates are high, they are going higher and returns will be low. When sto...
by randomguy
Mon Aug 17, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24299

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

Maybe not. The expected return after inflation was traditionally 4% for treasury bonds. Now its -.26%.(30 year tips). I think agnostically, its safe to say that the expected returns for the stock market has drifted down 4% as well. 0.5% may be a bit exadurated, but if the old rule everyone accepted...
by randomguy
Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Products that last forever
Replies: 238
Views: 15597

Re: Products that last forever

Patagonia jacket. After 20 years of heavy use, an airport baggage carousel ripped the zipper off. The jacket still looked basically new, so I sent it to Patagonia and they replaced the zipper for free. After another 20 years, it was still in good shape, but it was so out of style that I finally gav...