Search found 5120 matches

by randomguy
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 285
Views: 23377

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Flexible approaches are a sane way of going but you add a lot more complexity to the model. The question is always you retiree in 1966/1973/2000 of how much to cut back. You can do massive cuts (see VPW or any schemes that uses starting year account balances), you can do nothing (4% rule), or you c...
by randomguy
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks underperformed for the last 20 years.
Replies: 148
Views: 15424

Re: International stocks underperformed for the last 20 years.

If I read all this correctly, you dismiss international index funds because you can't find evidence of one that is guaranteed to outperform US index funds, and since US funds have outperformed international over the last 20 years there is no reason to think they won't continue to do so. To me that ...
by randomguy
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 285
Views: 23377

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

You'll note that I said 50x our base living expenses, meaning the non-discretionary necessities (e.g. utilities, groceries, auto insurance, property taxes). I'd like to spend about that much again on discretionary categories like traveling. But my point is that with 50x my base living expenses, I c...
by randomguy
Mon Jan 15, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 285
Views: 23377

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Perhaps I missed it, but with all the talk of using 4-5% of yearly portfolio balance, is there any backtesting on this approach? How well did it hold up? I understand that the portfolio balance can never go to zero with this method, but how did the annual payouts hold up over time? How did the port...
by randomguy
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 285
Views: 23377

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

The fact that things work this way is why academic financial experts conclude that withdrawal from a portfolio is an inefficient way to use retirement assets and advocate that one should annuitize instead. The lack of enthusiasm for single premium immediate annuities is called the annuity puzzle. A...
by randomguy
Mon Jan 15, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 285
Views: 23377

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

The fact that things work this way is why academic financial experts conclude that withdrawal from a portfolio is an inefficient way to use retirement assets and advocate that one should annuitize instead. The lack of enthusiasm for single premium immediate annuities is called the annuity puzzle. A...
by randomguy
Sun Jan 14, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What unexpected emergencies require sizeable emergency cash funds available immediately in a checking account?
Replies: 61
Views: 3643

Re: What unexpected emergencies require sizeable emergency cash funds available immediately in a checking account?

cheese_breath wrote:
Sun Jan 14, 2018 8:49 pm
Vinnie the Loanshark's goons show up at your home to collect the debt you ran up playing the horses.

That is an expected emergency😁 By the time the toons show up, you have had plenty of notice. They probably even take CC these days😁.
by randomguy
Sun Jan 14, 2018 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Profiles Of Some Successful Investors
Replies: 26
Views: 3487

Re: Profiles Of Some Successful Investors

Stemikger, Here are some more "Secret Millionaires" for us to study. I think this study is very important & interesting. What do they know that we don't?. The (If you want to be successful...what does successful look like). Enjoy this list of Secret Millionaires... https://www.joshuakennon.com/?s=s...
by randomguy
Sun Jan 14, 2018 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the best home exercise equipment?
Replies: 96
Views: 7521

Re: What is the best home exercise equipment?

+1 for a treadmill for the winter, bikes are okay, elliptical seems like unnatural motion but easy on the joints A rack, barbell, plates, and a bench are the best for working out (you don't have to be a young man to do it). The Deadlift, Squat, Bench Press, Row, Dips, Curls, Pull-ups, Chin-ups, Lat...
by randomguy
Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What unexpected emergencies require sizeable emergency cash funds available immediately in a checking account?
Replies: 61
Views: 3643

Re: What unexpected emergencies require sizeable emergency cash funds available immediately in a checking account?

The brother of a neighbor had a history of driving under the influence, and his (third? fourth? fifth? I'm not sure) case was pending. His only hope of minimizing his jail time was to hire the best lawyer in town for this sort of thing. The lawyer demanded $10,000 cash up front to take the case. 99...
by randomguy
Sun Jan 14, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is the best home exercise equipment?
Replies: 96
Views: 7521

Re: What is the best home exercise equipment?

+1 for a treadmill for the winter, bikes are okay, elliptical seems like unnatural motion but easy on the joints A rack, barbell, plates, and a bench are the best for working out (you don't have to be a young man to do it). The Deadlift, Squat, Bench Press, Row, Dips, Curls, Pull-ups, Chin-ups, Lat...
by randomguy
Sun Jan 14, 2018 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: hedge strategy for personal defined benefit account
Replies: 9
Views: 468

Re: hedge strategy for personal defined benefit account

I mean 35% total, over the entire 10 years. The biggest challenge to me is the last few years. You could have 2m in the plan, and if you are in fixed income, they aren't paying anywhere near 6%, so my understanding is that you are making up the difference in contributions, so your required contribu...
by randomguy
Sun Jan 14, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: hedge strategy for personal defined benefit account
Replies: 9
Views: 468

Re: hedge strategy for personal defined benefit account

PFInterest wrote:
Sun Jan 14, 2018 1:32 pm
huh? whats the purpose?
You can make more than 35%. If make more you can contribute less in later years.
by randomguy
Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Budgeting Vs Savings Rate
Replies: 59
Views: 3573

Re: Budgeting Vs Savings Rate

I'm wanting to get some feedback about budgeting. Currently, we save 50% of our combined gross pay and I track spending in Quicken so I can look up how much we spend on different categories. My spouse suggested that we start a budget, but I don't see a need to do so when we can save 50% and still b...
by randomguy
Sat Jan 13, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car people: 2014 E63 AMG or 2018 E400 wagon??
Replies: 63
Views: 2991

Re: Car people: 2014 E63 AMG or 2018 E400 wagon??

We almost skipped the Porsche Macan S, thinking it would be GLC like. But, what the heck, we were near a dealership and had time for test drive. No more arguments, that's what we're getting. (LOVE it.) THANK YOU all for your help! We didn't land where we expected, and thank goodness for that. You c...
by randomguy
Sat Jan 13, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2359

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

You know if you stay in place eventually the puck comes back.:) Skating where the puck was isn't that bad as long as you stop when you get there (i.e. don't switch from value to momentum to quality as each posts nice 3 year returns)
by randomguy
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Will never not upgrade Business travel again
Replies: 21
Views: 2824

Re: Will never not upgrade Business travel again

International airlines/flights, totally different though. Would I pay the extra $5K between economy and business class? I'd probably have to travel economy first on a international flight, but most likely I would probably shell out the extra money. 15-18 hours on a plane not comfortable can drive a...
by randomguy
Sat Jan 13, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car recommendations needed for growing family
Replies: 34
Views: 1953

Re: Car recommendations needed for growing family

We're a family of 4 with a toddler and baby. Our parents are also likely to visit often. Therefore, we're thinking about getting one bigger car for hauling the whole family around (perhaps a 7-seater?), and another smaller car to use for daily commuting (sedan or coupe). Priorities: 1) fuel efficie...
by randomguy
Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car people: 2014 E63 AMG or 2018 E400 wagon??
Replies: 63
Views: 2991

Re: Car people: 2014 E63 AMG or 2018 E400 wagon??

I have always loved the Audi Allroad. You need to find Doug Demuro and fast! I watched the video and think it may be crap. Why? I had an A6 2.7T engine audi with 150k miles on it tuned to about 350hp. I sold it 2 years ago. Everything is the same as the all road except for the suspension. I have no...
by randomguy
Sat Jan 13, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has InformedforLife.org (vehicle safety ratings) gone too far?
Replies: 29
Views: 1902

Re: Has InformedforLife.org (vehicle safety ratings) gone too far?

Most people I know rave about vehicle safety but make little to no effort to minimize driving. We are accustomed to the convenience of having the car at our disposal for any whim and to having no patience. With an actual strategy to minimize car use, you can drive it way, way down. Consolidate all ...
by randomguy
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Withdrawal vs Yield as Income
Replies: 41
Views: 2077

Re: 4% Withdrawal vs Yield as Income

When I buy a house (for cash) and its value drops by half, have I lost anything. Is the house still providing everything I need? If I am later forced to sell at a loss then yes I have lost something. Dave Yes you lose money the instant the house drops in value. You might feel better not knowing tha...
by randomguy
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% Withdrawal vs Yield as Income
Replies: 41
Views: 2077

Re: 4% Withdrawal vs Yield as Income

@financialdave Thanks that makes sense, that wiki is misleading. I put a $1,000,000 hypothetical into portfoliovisualizer in VTSMX. You can see that the portfolio income is pretty resilient to a crash. The rise in income afterwards is due to only price increase, without dividends reinvested. Though...
by randomguy
Fri Jan 12, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 285
Views: 23377

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Probably. So then the question is who believes in this enough to retire with a 5.5% SWR?:) Me! :sharebeer I'm actually thinking of a 6% flexible withdrawal rate (i.e. percentage of portfolio). But it will probably be another 15 years or so before I retire, and I'm expecting a 40 year retirement, so...
by randomguy
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has InformedforLife.org (vehicle safety ratings) gone too far?
Replies: 29
Views: 1902

Re: Has InformedforLife.org (vehicle safety ratings) gone too far?

Actually we can put numbers on it. That is what the highway saftey data does. And that is pretty clear that your lighter car is lot more dangerous;). You might feel safer. Odds are you are not. And no you being a well above average driver (aren't we all?:)), doesn't change that. That simply puts a ...
by randomguy
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Poll: BHs who rent - what % of gross do you spend on rent?
Replies: 58
Views: 2924

Re: Poll: BHs who rent - what % of gross do you spend on rent?

What % of gross income (combined) do you pay for rent? Just curious. 10%? 15%? 20%? ~5% in a HCOL area. But all that is saying is I have a high income. If I was making 75% less, I would still be living in the same spot. In the end this is a useless number. Some areas are low rent and others are hig...
by randomguy
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has InformedforLife.org (vehicle safety ratings) gone too far?
Replies: 29
Views: 1902

Re: Has InformedforLife.org (vehicle safety ratings) gone too far?

Strongly agree with the need to consider active safety in the ability of the driver and vehicle to be able to avoid accidents vs. passive safety where you always want a bigger cage. We have an SUV considered among the safest vehicles on the road. It even handles better than average for an SUV carry...
by randomguy
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 285
Views: 23377

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

It's been done but with 20 year decumulation periods rather than 30 years or different time periods. Below is Table 2 from Clare et al. 2017 . The improvement in trend following over buy-and-hold was very impressive. Had T-bills or some other bonds been used in lieu of cash, the improvement would h...
by randomguy
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 38
Views: 5753

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

It's thoroughly discussed and easily found only if you take action to seek it out (like Bogleheads do just by looking at this site for more than 15 minutes). I don't really see a reason for most to be educated on the SWR because most have less than 12x earnings at retirement. Most people would tell...
by randomguy
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A " Bond Tent" During the "Retirement Red Zone?"
Replies: 59
Views: 5630

Re: A " Bond Tent" During the "Retirement Red Zone?"

What I don't understand is why people don't just keep 10 years expenses in bonds and withdrawal 100% from equities. Once a bear market hits start withdrawal 100% from bonds. I don't believe there has been a time in American history where the market is significantly lower than it was 10 year prior ....
by randomguy
Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Profiles Of Some Successful Investors
Replies: 26
Views: 3487

Re: Profiles Of Some Successful Investors

Profiles Of Some Successful Investors. Very interesting read. As you read through the article if you highlight the individual investors you can read about them & how they made their millions. Enjoy... http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/2018/01/profiles-of-successful-dividend.html Uh, oh. Trying ...
by randomguy
Fri Jan 12, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 38
Views: 5753

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '8% rule' - Where are they now?

There is another thread that talks someone retiring in 2000 and using a 4% inflation-adjusted withdrawal rate. How about someone retiring in 1999 using an 8% withdrawal rate? This thread was posted on the Motley Fool message board Retire Early CampFIRE on December 7, 1999. An 8% withdrawal rate??? ...
by randomguy
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 4109

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

B is much worse because there is nothing that can be done to mitigate the damage. A is less bad because he can work a couple more years. Let me change the phrasing of the problem a bit. A) is it better to take 60k/year out of a 1 millon dollar portfolio that is rising or b) is it better to take 60k...
by randomguy
Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 4109

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

randomguy, Just for the sake of this discussion, I am preparing for a bear market of 5 years. Will that be sufficient? It is my belief that if the bear market lasted more than 5 years, I will need to proceed to a more drastic adjustment. KlangFool Here is a sequence of returns that doesn't have any...
by randomguy
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 4109

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

mariezzz, I am not that smart. I need to start with the basics first before we go deeper. But, it looks like we have no agreement even with the basics. << If you have enough in bonds/CD ladders, etc. (or adjust your spending down during the bull market), and don't have to sell equities, that will r...
by randomguy
Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 285
Views: 23377

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Not to derail the thread, but there isn't universal agreement on that point among the academics, particularly in the withdrawal phase. The historic ability of simple trend following methods to minimize downside risk is undeniable, and it's hard to make the case that this will dramatically change go...
by randomguy
Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal sequencing
Replies: 19
Views: 1774

Re: Withdrawal sequencing

Next year, living on a taxable account, you could easily convert 30,200.00 to a Roth without paying any taxes. This is for a 65 and over married couple filing a joint return. The qualified dividends are also taxed at zero for any income under 77200.00 next year. That is going to take 50+ years to c...
by randomguy
Thu Jan 11, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How many years of fixed income for Sequence of Return Risk
Replies: 26
Views: 1904

Re: How many years of fixed income for Sequence of Return Risk

In a typical 25x expenses, 60/40 retirement allocation, there would be 10 yrs of fixed income and 15 yrs of equity. Personally, I have ~13 yrs of fixed income and more than 25x expenses with a 55/45 allocation because I am retiring early. I believe Kitces said the first 10 years was the most danger...
by randomguy
Thu Jan 11, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 4109

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

Sure but now you have not enough money risk. You were planning on 40k and only get 20k so to you still have to sell the house and move in with the kids.
by randomguy
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 4109

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

Does it work with a substantial CD Ladder in taxable, but not counted as part of the bond allocation? You have my attention. mahalo, j :D Define work?:) It isn't like any of the schemes take you from a 4% SWR of a fixed AA to a 5% one. There isn't a radical difference between holding a bond ladder ...
by randomguy
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much/little money to give kids in will so they continue to work
Replies: 95
Views: 7793

Re: How much/little money to give kids so they continue to work

I have not set up trusts yet for my minors (5 and 2), but will be shortly. I have slowly started thinking about this. Just curious for those in the know (ahem Bsteiner) can't you just stipulate money to be left in the trust and only be used for something like health and education. Other then that h...
by randomguy
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 4109

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

If one spends from the bond, then, the equity portion will raise as a percentage of the portfolio. From the bond standpoint, increasing before retirement and reducing after retirement. Aka, "bond tent". From the stock standpoint, decreasing before retirement and increasing after the retirement. The...
by randomguy
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?
Replies: 26
Views: 1528

Re: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?

Alohajoe....I downloaded that spreadsheet. YOWZA! Having trouble deciphering the meaning of some columns, but I will get there. Bigred77....That chart was exactly what I was looking for, except it is somewhat 'dated'. livesoft....Yep, as soon as I saw what you posted about FIREcalc, I said, 'Duh!' ...
by randomguy
Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much/little money to give kids in will so they continue to work
Replies: 95
Views: 7793

Re: How much/little money to give kids so they continue to work

What is the maximum a typical 25-year old could inherit without the money changing their work ethic? Depends on the individual. I have known people who wouldn't show up for work the next day if you gave them $100 to spend on beer and weed. And others will take 10 million and start a business to try...
by randomguy
Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lowball offer on a home
Replies: 82
Views: 6878

Re: Lowball offer on a home

I got 16% off my current place and it was on the market less than 2 weeks. I showed them the comps, they accepted it. I refused to counter any of their counter offers. It just depends. If the seller is going to be offended and refuse to deal with you due to a lowball, then they are probably being s...
by randomguy
Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help choosing a hatchback- civic, golf, prius and Volvo V60
Replies: 40
Views: 2093

Re: Help choosing a hatchback- civic, golf, prius and Volvo V60

Prius. We love ours. 170K and still going strong. The newer ones have gotten a little bigger. Civics are great too. Based on the usage also consider a Nissan LEAF. That's what I would get, personally. Best deal on the planet and perfect for running local errands. EDIT: Interesting dataset for you r...
by randomguy
Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help choosing a hatchback- civic, golf, prius and Volvo V60
Replies: 40
Views: 2093

Re: Help choosing a hatchback- civic, golf, prius and Volvo V60

Personally I would be leery of Volvo now that they are Chinese owned. I have an eGolf and the "mileage", maintenance, and smooth running are great. Any particular reason other than not liking china? From what I can the products from after the sale to geely are a lot better than the preGeely ones. A...
by randomguy
Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 4109

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

This is getting close to what I was asking earlier... Assuming i have enough money in taxable, Is there any difference between selling equities (even if value has dropped considerably) in taxable to fund the “bridge” and rebalancing bonds into equities in tax deferred vs building up a bond/cd holdi...
by randomguy
Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement
Replies: 103
Views: 4109

Re: Sequence of Return Risk impact on Retirement

Folks, Let's start with a baseline of 60/40, 1.5 million, and with 60K per year. Let's assume that the stock market crash 50% and stay down for 5 years. The bond stays at 0%. Option 1) This person rebalances to 60/40 every year. Year 0 -> 1.5 went down to 1.05 million Year 1 -> 990K Year 2 -> 930K ...
by randomguy
Wed Jan 10, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: retiree health ins - how to propose to Employer?
Replies: 39
Views: 1711

Re: retiree health ins - how to propose to Employer?

Using COBRA would kick the can down the road for 3 years. With the health insurance market being so dynamic, better alternatives may be available at that time. That's why I think it may be of some help. Some people think COBRA is limited to 18 months and the OP may not have known that it can be ava...
by randomguy
Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 285
Views: 23377

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I just wanted to know that if you had to you could live off of the 100% stock portfolio knowing that it's very volatile? In other words just live off the income from the portfolio but let the portfolio float in the market. Sure but you have to remember that your income will be cut 25%+ during marke...