Search found 5530 matches

by randomguy
Sun May 27, 2018 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: GEICO auto rates vs. USAA: too good to be true?
Replies: 151
Views: 23024

Re: GEICO auto rates vs. USAA: too good to be true?

LOL. On the other hand, I am still with Liberty for home insurance: I researched Geico's underwriter and did not like it one bit. I cannot describe Liberty in allowed words either: yearly premium in 2004 was $400; yearly premium in 2017, $1,100. In a deflationary environment... yeah, right. I am pa...
by randomguy
Sun May 27, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: recommended Roth percentage of total investments
Replies: 17
Views: 2325

Re: recommended Roth percentage of total investments

I for one know there is zero chance I can get enough money in tax deferred to get up to the 37% tax bracket (something like 15 million) so going 100% deferred when I can is an easy choice. Sure it might come out at 24% instead of the 33% I was counting on but that doesn't really change the math. So...
by randomguy
Sun May 27, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Alexa Echo sent family's audio file to a contact
Replies: 65
Views: 5003

Re: Alexa Echo sent family's audio file to a contact

I believe luddites destroyed machinery because they thought their jobs were at risk. Yep. Luddites didn't fear technology. They didn't want a dangerous, min wage job. It would be like saying a protester who lit a car on fire was antiautomobile. Neo-Luddities are the ones that are antitech. It is ti...
by randomguy
Sun May 27, 2018 10:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I Leave Traditional IRA to Grandkids?
Replies: 19
Views: 1790

Re: Should I Leave Traditional IRA to Grandkids?

She is already getting SS benefits. In her late sixties. Her AGI last year with SS, pension, dividends, etc. was around $90k. She doesn't itemize deductions. So she is sitting right about the edge of the 22/24% bracket for singles and that is probably unlikely to change much. The RMD is going to be...
by randomguy
Sat May 26, 2018 11:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: medicaid as early retirement medical insurance (or maybe Obamacare)
Replies: 41
Views: 3262

Re: medicaid as early retirement medical insurance (or maybe Obamacare)

Thanks, all, for your insights, especially for the links to the eligibility requirements. one last question: has anyone had personal experience with Texas medicaid plans? good/bad? it sounds like ACA is probably the better option if one gets it subsidized by the US govt. You don’t get to choose bet...
by randomguy
Sat May 26, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: recommended Roth percentage of total investments
Replies: 17
Views: 2325

Re: recommended Roth percentage of total investments

The rule of thumb is 50/50. Invest in pre-tax accounts - like IRAs - if your tax rate is higher today than when you withdraw. Invest is post-tax accounts - Roths - if your tax rate will is lower today when you withdraw. Since we can't know what future tax rates will be, split the difference. This i...
by randomguy
Sat May 26, 2018 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Near commercial level treadmill
Replies: 29
Views: 1898

Re: Near commercial level treadmill

I’m an outside runner doing that kind of miles right now. I’ll occasionally run on a treadmill, more in winter, but the thought of putting that many miles on a treadmill sends shivers down my spine. It’s incredibly boring compared to running outside. A track is the best of both worlds, dull enough ...
by randomguy
Sat May 26, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I Leave Traditional IRA to Grandkids?
Replies: 19
Views: 1790

Re: Should I Leave Traditional IRA to Grandkids?

There are a few non-deductible contributions. I would figure out what to do with the Roth conversion each December when the numbers for the year are pretty firm. The way her Social Security is taxed is also an important factor since that might put her in a higher than expected tax bracket. https://...
by randomguy
Sat May 26, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Near commercial level treadmill
Replies: 29
Views: 1898

Re: Near commercial level treadmill

Any recommendations? Yes, check Craiglist. People dump nice ones cheaply all of the time. Whenever I look on craigslist for exercise equipment there is tons of low end stuff and very little decent. I figure most of the people dropping 3k on treadmills know what they like and actually use them. I do...
by randomguy
Sat May 26, 2018 5:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I Leave Traditional IRA to Grandkids?
Replies: 19
Views: 1790

Re: Should I Leave Traditional IRA to Grandkids?

Another question - Should I leave my traditional IRA to my grandkids? Would that mean, given their longer life expectancy, that their RMDs would be much smaller and therefore taxed in a smaller amount and perhaps taxed at a child income rate? The kiddie tax means a lot of the income will be taxed a...
by randomguy
Sat May 26, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 39
Views: 3655

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

I personally believe that the greatest threat to the retirement of most people is the stock market not doing nearly as well as it has in the past. I'm sort of amazed that only a few people have raised that in this thread. It isn't a big risk since we are all planning on it having the worst possible...
by randomguy
Sat May 26, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% withdrawal rate"- would it apply to someone "retiring" in their 70s?
Replies: 43
Views: 2865

Re: The "4% withdrawl rate" - would it apply to someone "retiring" in their 70s?

This is a case where I would explore buying a single premium immediate annuity for a large portion of the portfolio (perhaps up to half, with the remainder in equities). I also agree that an immediate annuity (with inflation adjustment) is definitely something to strongly consider in this kind of s...
by randomguy
Sat May 26, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "4% withdrawal rate"- would it apply to someone "retiring" in their 70s?
Replies: 43
Views: 2865

Re: The "4% withdrawl rate" - would it apply to someone "retiring" in their 70s?

Come on people answer the question. The OP asked if the 4% would apply to someone who retires in their mid 70's , not how to invest it. A 20 year retirement could handle 5% if going by history, as everyone seems to think the next 10 years will be lower than normal maybe 4.5- 4.75 would work. I woul...
by randomguy
Fri May 25, 2018 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 39
Views: 3655

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Health issues I think are the biggest risk BY FAR, followed by perhaps expensive divorce or other black swan law suit. Nah. Most of those health issues will result in lower lifespans so you really only need a 10 year retirement:) Black swan type law suits pretty much don't happen. Seriously how man...
by randomguy
Fri May 25, 2018 11:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: medicaid as early retirement medical insurance (or maybe Obamacare)
Replies: 41
Views: 3262

Re: medicaid as early retirement medical insurance (or maybe Obamacare)

i did not see anything about assets limits. The below link addresses the asset limits for Medicaid in Texas. https://www.familyassets.com/nursing-homes/resources/medicaid/texas You should actually be quite happy if your assets don't qualify you for Medicaid in Texas, as you might experience a grim ...
by randomguy
Fri May 25, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How have you upgraded your wardrobe?
Replies: 104
Views: 5486

Re: How have you upgraded your wardrobe?

I really don't understand the mockery or derision some have expressed toward people who prefer to dress nicely/professionally for work or whatever else. It doesn't seem to be enough to simply say, "I prefer a different way." Rather, there has to be something wrong or dishonest about someone who cho...
by randomguy
Fri May 25, 2018 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 40
Views: 2583

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

So if, hypothetically, the US market cap was 5% and the rest of the world 95%...would the anti-international people have a different US/INTL allocation, or would it be the same? I'm not anti-international, but this is the argument I would make: In 2017, about 43% of sales for S&P 500 companies came...
by randomguy
Fri May 25, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 483
Views: 25496

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

Our solution is to run the potential Roth conversions thru the RPM calculator/spreadsheet and see what the affect has in store for your case. You can then vary the future possibilities and see would happen. Unfortunately - there is no calculator which will foretell what are earnings, taxes, or draw...
by randomguy
Fri May 25, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renting vs Owning Your Home
Replies: 90
Views: 5837

Re: Renting vs Owning Your Home

It all depends on where you live. You can't just take the numbers of your own city and extrapolate it to everyone. Btw Seattle has a price to rent ratio of 25-35 depending on where I look on the internet. How can it be better to own in this case? (from a purely mathematical point of view) Because t...
by randomguy
Fri May 25, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Renting vs Owning Your Home
Replies: 90
Views: 5837

Re: Renting vs Owning Your Home

In a desirable place such as SF, NYC, and Seattle, it is always better to own rather than rent even though current Buy/rent ratio is high. Housing price is always inrational. Don't blame it. You can always buy a cheap house in middle of US plain, but how many population growth will push the rent an...
by randomguy
Fri May 25, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9972

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

We may make a trend follower out of you yet! :sharebeer Hey lets not get crazy. I am not looking at a bunch of charts and making decisions based on if I see teapots or not:) Market timing gets a horrible name because tons of it is pure seat of the pants (i.e. market feels like it is dropping anothe...
by randomguy
Fri May 25, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9972

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

Have you crossed over to the dark side (i.e. market timing)? :twisted: Partly. But huge chunk is going from a 4% Swr to like a 1.5%. not so much market timing as need timing. in reality I am sure I would end going 85/15 time something like 40/60. Don't think I could stomache the tax hit of getting ...
by randomguy
Fri May 25, 2018 6:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 40
Views: 2583

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

Since we've seen "home bias" go away once away, it doesn't seem a stretch to forecast that it will go away again. That said: the US will never be 5% of the global market cap. The last time it was 5% of the global market cap was probably back in the 1820s or something. So this is so totally non-acti...
by randomguy
Thu May 24, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 483
Views: 25496

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

Expenses in retirement are often lower. For a time. Maybe a decade or more, depending on your health. But there will come a time when you have to hire someone to do things you are no longer capable of doing. You may have to move into assisted living, or a nursing home. You may have health costs not...
by randomguy
Thu May 24, 2018 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?
Replies: 39
Views: 3655

Re: Is inflation the greatest risk to retirement portfolios?

Is the greatest risk to the survival of one's retirement portfolio the risk of inflation? Are there any comparable risks? If inflation is the greatest risk we face as retirees, would that not imply that the choice of investment assets should prioritize inflation risk? That would mean that we should...
by randomguy
Thu May 24, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13567

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

I believe that White Coat Investor says that around 20% of M.D.s at age 60 have a net worth under $300k, barely more than the median household net worth for 65-69 year olds in the U.S. Last survey I looked at showed 24% of physicians over 65 have a net worth under $1M. There was one two years ago t...
by randomguy
Thu May 24, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 9972

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

Regardless of whether one calls this a bucket strategy or a conventional AA, the point is that it worked better than a static AA. Do we know that to be the case? That is actually what i was questioning. If i understand it correctly, you are basing that on this statement: While he characterizes the ...
by randomguy
Thu May 24, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: medicaid as early retirement medical insurance (or maybe Obamacare)
Replies: 41
Views: 3262

Re: medicaid as early retirement medical insurance (or maybe Obamacare)

delamar, thanks for the link. i saw that but was skeptical. the income limit seems high to me. also, i did not see anything about assets limits. Read the next line " You must also be either pregnant, a parent or relative caretaker of a dependent child(ren) under age 19, blind, have a disability or ...
by randomguy
Thu May 24, 2018 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: medicaid as early retirement medical insurance (or maybe Obamacare)
Replies: 41
Views: 3262

Re: medicaid as early retirement medical insurance (or maybe Obamacare)

Questions: 1. Is medicaid (Texas) a feasible medical insurance option for early retirees? What are the eligibility requirements (i had a hard time finding this online)? 2. Is Obamacare insurance a better option if you get it subsidized fully by the federal government? It varies by state and plan bu...
by randomguy
Wed May 23, 2018 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13567

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

When you look at sales data for things like high end cars and the like, the expensive models that rich people buy are supported by income. The average 911 buyer for example makes something like 350k/year. It is the entry level models that have aspirational sales. People stretch to buy a 3 series a ...
by randomguy
Wed May 23, 2018 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13567

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

Over half of M.D.s having a net worth under $2 million at age 60-64 is amazing. A $2 million portfolio can be achieved with $2,500 investment monthly for 30 years at a 5% real return. Saving 30k/year when you are making <100k is a lot (i.e. starting doctors salaries 30 years ago). Even today there ...
by randomguy
Wed May 23, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13567

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

When you look at sales data for things like high end cars and the like, the expensive models that rich people buy are supported by income. The average 911 buyer for example makes something like 350k/year. It is the entry level models that have aspirational sales. People stretch to buy a 3 series a ...
by randomguy
Wed May 23, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New 2018 Nissan Leaf (with 150 mi range)
Replies: 52
Views: 4848

Re: New 2018 Nissan Leaf (with 150 mi range)

I looked deep into the Leaf's depreciation and it depreciates 50% by year 2 and 55% by year 3. Go figure... I figure it's due to having no subsidy as a used car. If you reduce the MSRP by the amount of tax credits, the depreciation looks like most other cars. Depreciation % are pretty meaningless s...
by randomguy
Tue May 22, 2018 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What account to withdraw from?
Replies: 8
Views: 966

Re: What account to withdraw from?

I am 67 and fully retired. I do not take SS but do receive spousal benefits. We do need to take some extra funds to pay our bills. We only have stock funds left in our taxable accounts as we have used any cash available in these accounts. My understanding is that taxable accounts should be accessed...
by randomguy
Tue May 22, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you stop moving the goal posts.
Replies: 62
Views: 4690

Re: How do you stop moving the goal posts.

Now as I approach retirement I am wondering how I will react to no longer doing this financially since if all goes to plan watching our balances shrink not increase over the years. If all goes to plan, my balances will keep on increasing throughout retirement. That is the downside of a conservative...
by randomguy
Tue May 22, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13567

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

People that look rich tend to be rich. Many are "All hat, no cattle." You can't tell someone's net worth by looking at their car, their house or their clothing. I can't tell someones net worth by looking at a house, car, or clothing. I can however look at 10k people and their clothes, cars and hous...
by randomguy
Tue May 22, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13567

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

Some of the criticism that I read here, is decent, but it ignores the fundamental truths of these books. Namely: those that actually have money, tend not to look like they do; and, those that look rick are probably broke. That isn't remotely a fundamental truth. It is a fairy tale that appeals to a...
by randomguy
Tue May 22, 2018 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why 97% of People Don't Use 529 College Savings Plans."
Replies: 262
Views: 47374

Re: "Why 97% of People Don't Use 529 College Savings Plans."

If your state doesn't offer a tax benefit is it worth putting money in a 529? I live in a state (NJ) where I get no state income tax benefit, I have been setting aside 27k per year for my 2 children aged 4 and 2. After reading this thread it makes me wonder if its worth it Why wouldn't it be worth ...
by randomguy
Tue May 22, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants
Replies: 99
Views: 13567

Re: The Millionaire Next Door and civil servants

Some of the criticism that I read here, is decent, but it ignores the fundamental truths of these books. Namely: those that actually have money, tend not to look like they do; and, those that look rick are probably broke. That isn't remotely a fundamental truth. It is a fairy tale that appeals to a...
by randomguy
Tue May 22, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If RMD are large should you still defer into 401k
Replies: 32
Views: 2992

Re: If RMD are large should you still defer into 401k

The one-time annuity may be a QLAC. https://www.annuityfyi.com/longevity-annuities/invest-longevity-annuity/ Does that really save you much on taxes though? Sure your RMDs are lower until the QLAC kicks in but then you get some pretty large payouts. You would have to make a lot of assumptions to fi...
by randomguy
Tue May 22, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If RMD are large should you still defer into 401k
Replies: 32
Views: 2992

Re: If RMD are large should you still defer into 401k

RMDs sneak up in a lot of people. I don’t have exact calc in front of me, but we’re 45 with about $1M in 401k balances. With continued contributions and growth through age 65 and no withdraws before 70, the RMD is huge! Depends on what you are making. In 25 years you will be in the 3-5 million real...
by randomguy
Sun May 20, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Discontinuity and marginal vs effective rates
Replies: 39
Views: 1701

Re: Discontinuity and marginal vs effective rates

1) You have 100k to either put in a TIRA or invest in taxable. Your money will go up 4x. Are you better paying 25% on 400k or paying 25% on 100k, have it go up 4x and then 15% on the gains? In case A you pay 100k in taxes. In case B you pay 70k. You are much better off paying more in taxes. This se...
by randomguy
Sun May 20, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Discontinuity and marginal vs effective rates
Replies: 39
Views: 1701

Re: Discontinuity and marginal vs effective rates

0) understanding how paying 24% tax on everything is better than paying 24% on the starting principal and 15% on the gains. It isn't intuitive to a lot of people how paying say 100k in taxes is better than paying 70k. This is explains why you want a tax advantaged account. Trying to understand.... ...
by randomguy
Sun May 20, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Discontinuity and marginal vs effective rates
Replies: 39
Views: 1701

Re: Discontinuity and marginal vs effective rates

We have had many heated discussions regarding marginal vs effective rates recently. Even though the point made by FiveK is correct, I think one does needs to dig further when there are humps or valleys in the marginal rate diagram. My favorite case is the so called social security hump case. I beli...
by randomguy
Sat May 19, 2018 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 483
Views: 25496

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

106k/year annual contribution (53k for you and wife), 7% real returns and you are looking at 21 million after 40 years. Seems pretty doable:) Or if you invest with Dave Ramsey and get 10% real you are looking at 47 million. Definitely should have done the ROTH. And we haven't even talked about your...
by randomguy
Fri May 18, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 483
Views: 25496

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

Your answer is very simple. You should max your Trad. 401K forever. You will never reach that number. KlangFool 106k/year annual contribution (53k for you and wife), 7% real returns and you are looking at 21 million after 40 years. Seems pretty doable:) Or if you invest with Dave Ramsey and get 10%...
by randomguy
Fri May 18, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 483
Views: 25496

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

Klangfool, (or anyone else who understands this) Can you please go over again why it makes sense to direct money into Roth 401K once the tax deferred account reaches $1M? Or some magic number? How do figure that number? Oh, and I've not gotten to the "OMG, I get it". Actually getting more confused....
by randomguy
Fri May 18, 2018 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 483
Views: 25496

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

<<That 50-year-old might easily work another decade or more with employer-provided traditional matching contributions.>> Why would that person work another decade? Time is more precious than money at that age. KlangFool Why would someone stop working just because they have a bunch of money?:) Some ...
by randomguy
Fri May 18, 2018 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 483
Views: 25496

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

1) Only 85% of the social security income is taxable. https://taxfoundation.org/2018-tax-brackets/ 2) The standard deduction is 24K. For a married couple, you need another 77K before you reach 22% tax bracket. So, you need about 100K of income. Let's be generous and assume that the Social Security ...
by randomguy
Fri May 18, 2018 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"
Replies: 483
Views: 25496

Re: Why do so many people quote "You will likely be in a lower tax bracket in retirement"

Klangfool, (or anyone else who understands this) Can you please go over again why it makes sense to direct money into Roth 401K once the tax deferred account reaches $1M? Or some magic number? How do figure that number? Oh, and I've not gotten to the "OMG, I get it". Actually getting more confused....