Search found 8267 matches

by randomguy
Tue Nov 19, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Gates' backed Heliogen may revolutionize energy industry
Replies: 14
Views: 1168

Re: Bill Gates' backed Heliogen may revolutionize energy industry

As with most technological revolutions, let’s see it work reliably at scale. It is only a matter of time before there is a large scale breakthrough that moves the world away from fossil fuels, but what that is technology is and when it is mature enough to get the market share no one knows. I hope t...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 19, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are individual stocks back on the table now that we have $0 commissions?
Replies: 54
Views: 3630

Re: Are individual stocks back on the table now that we have $0 commissions?

I think the idea of trying to build a portfolio of 100+ stocks is madness unless you have some type automated trading system. If you want an index, buy the index fund. Saving .03% isn't going to be worth it. To make this work, you would need to be happy with holding something like 15-25 stocks (i.e....
by randomguy
Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best thing you have ever bought?
Replies: 146
Views: 11072

Re: Best thing you have ever bought?

Lasik surgery at 21 years old nothing comes close Very close to verbatim to what I was scrolling down to post: Toric lens implants when I had my cataract surgeries. I can't think of a close second. After 50+ years of wearing glasses constantly to using readers occasionally. What a change! I wish I ...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 18, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best thing you have ever bought?
Replies: 146
Views: 11072

Re: Best thing you have ever bought?

I’m unsure of my answer yet, however many of these responses is making me want to get lasik. For me personally, it’s not about the $, but the chance of something bad happening, and the pain (I’m a baby when it comes to eyes) For what it's worth, I purposely chose PRK over LASIK because I wanted to ...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: morality, kids, tuition etc
Replies: 68
Views: 3955

Re: morality, kids, tuition etc

Giving an 18 year old that choice, when they are not really equipped to understand the ramifications, is unfair. Winner, winner, chicken dinner. Unfortunately, 18 year olds get to make choices that will affect the rest of their lives. Don’t add to the pressure. 18 year olds like to think they’re “a...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: morality, kids, tuition etc
Replies: 68
Views: 3955

Re: morality, kids, tuition etc

I won’t give her an option. Go to 4 year college. My brother-in-law gave his only daughter an option of taking a year off before college. During that time-off, she got pregnant and this week she is giving birth to a boy. She just turn 19 last week. The boy who got her pregnant doesn’t want anything...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 18, 2019 1:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run
Replies: 76
Views: 6035

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

[quote=randomguy post_id=4841846 time=15738 It was popular in the late sixties drop in drop out , and those dropout kids are gen-xers and millennials that is how I see the connection to the FIRE movement as a babyboomer. That was slightly different in that the boomers were living the minimalist lif...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: morality, kids, tuition etc
Replies: 68
Views: 3955

Re: morality, kids, tuition etc

I'm confused by the original post, which notes that a CC is cheaper, but the OP can afford a 4 year college, and prefers it, because it seems to offer a better experience. Wsiddiqi, why would you pay your child to take a path you yourself regard as inferior? In terms of advice, the odds, that is to...
by randomguy
Sun Nov 17, 2019 11:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Asset allocation for 50 year retirement?
Replies: 21
Views: 2431

Re: Asset allocation for 50 year retirement?

I suggest you study 'Sequence of Returns Risk'. The premise is that the riskiest period of retirement is the first 5 years. If disaster doesn't hit in the first 5 years (of course, it usually doesn't) then your portfolio will grow further (and you have 5 fewer years to live) so you are especially b...
by randomguy
Sun Nov 17, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?
Replies: 64
Views: 6957

Re: Don't peek, but since the 2018 highs, a 60/40 portfolio is up by What Percent?

I'm not sure what the point of your post was. Are you saying 6.5% return is disappointing? Do you expect continued 34.45% stock market returns? My point was that one should rebalance into equities when the stock market is low such as on Christmas Eve 2018. And you should rebalance into bonds in Jan...
by randomguy
Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If one is pessimistic about both stocks and bonds, does a SPIA make sense?
Replies: 64
Views: 3193

Re: If one is pessimistic about both stocks and bonds, does a SPIA make sense?

I'm not going to comment if it makes sense, but the gloomers and doomers over the last 10 years have missed out on the best bull market in their investment lifetime. Only if they started investing really recently. 1990-march of 2000 was better by pretty much every metric. And to some extent 1982-20...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 15, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run
Replies: 76
Views: 6035

Re: Is the FIRE Movement Responsible for this Historic Bull Market Run

OP, 1) No. 2) A bigger and more interesting question is why the idea of FIRE looks appealing to the younger generation. It was not a popular idea of 10 to 20 years ago. KlangFool Are you sure it wasn't popular 20 years ago and you just didn't hear about it? How would you have learned about some mov...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 15, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bigger car for baby?
Replies: 62
Views: 2636

Re: Bigger car for baby?

Most posters don't seem to think this is necessary. I do appreciate that feedback. No one has really opined on the experience of carrying around adults + kid in the car yet except one guy/gal--and no, I don't need a giant SUV or minivan, I can get a full size car like a Toyota Avalon mentioned by a...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bigger car for baby?
Replies: 62
Views: 2636

Re: Bigger car for baby?

Was not having one car that multiple adults could all travel in not a big issue for people? Everyone talked about multiple children, multiple infants, etc but I'm thinking 4 adults and a kid in the car would be a great benefit. Maybe not and everyone can just drive themselves around, who cares? Cur...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 14, 2019 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

randomguy, I am going to stop by this. Just for completeness sake. 3) The 20% is based on how many years of 100/0? KlangFool assumptions 100/00 stocks earn ~7.5% real 70/30 earns 6.5% 20 years 100/0 10k->42.7 70/30 10k->35.7 30 years 100/0 87k 70/30 66.1k You can obviously run the math with whateve...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 14, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

3) Historically, over 10 years period with 80 samples, there is a 5% chance that 100/0 will lose money. Meanwhile, for 70/30, it is a 0% chance. If you only have 10 years of no withdrawal, 100/0 do not beat 70/30 all the time. KlangFool Sure. But 70/30 doesn't beat 0/100 all the time over 10 years ...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 14, 2019 2:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?
Replies: 72
Views: 4725

Re: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?

As to the on going rewards, once you get a system set up it doesn't take that much more work. Is that worth an additional $1k per year? How many people spend 50k/yr (4%) or 100k/yr (3%) more in these specialized categories than just using the 2% card? Does you really want to carry around 20 cards s...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

3) Historically, over 10 years period with 80 samples, there is a 5% chance that 100/0 will lose money. Meanwhile, for 70/30, it is a 0% chance. If you only have 10 years of no withdrawal, 100/0 do not beat 70/30 all the time. KlangFool Sure. But 70/30 doesn't beat 0/100 all the time over 10 years ...
by randomguy
Thu Nov 14, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If one is pessimistic about both stocks and bonds, does a SPIA make sense?
Replies: 64
Views: 3193

Re: If one is pessimistic about both stocks and bonds, does a SPIA make sense?

There are SPIA products with fixed inflation adjustments (e.g. 2%) but I don't think you will find one that floats with the CPI. No insurance company these days is going to take on that risk for you the way that Social Security still does or a corporate pension might have in the past. If you could ...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Productizing an idea
Replies: 28
Views: 1530

Re: Productizing an idea

Everyone is wrong. Dont spend any money on lawyers. Don't file a patent. Don't do any of that nonsense... Go on Alibaba.com, talk to a Chinese company that makes something similar now. Chances are they can make what you are talking about or something close to it already exists. Take your specs and ...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 33
Views: 3871

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

I don't see how reducing one's spending to 3.6% should be a problem for virtually everyone who would even consider implementing something akin to the '4% rule'. That's a mere 10% reduction, which should be easy for all but those with the very leanest of budgets to find. The trick is not to 'permane...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Saving seats on Southwest
Replies: 210
Views: 11211

Re: Saving seats on Southwest

How about the couples that choose the two aisle seats across from each other, hogging both 3 seat groups? What's wrong with that? It's open seating. If they both like aisles, they should do exactly this. Totally agree. Gill As long as they don't talk to each other (you need to talk a lot louder to ...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?
Replies: 72
Views: 4725

Re: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?

Assuming you're spending within your means, you obtain cards with rewards towards items you already spend $ on, and you're paying the balance off monthly, it can certainly be worth it. Why not go for a CC bonus strategy under those circumstances? For example, if I can get one card with 1.5% cash ba...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Saving seats on Southwest
Replies: 210
Views: 11211

Re: Saving seats on Southwest

How about the couples that choose the two aisle seats across from each other, hogging both 3 seat groups? What's wrong with that? It's open seating. If they both like aisles, they should do exactly this. Totally agree. Gill As long as they don't talk to each other (you need to talk a lot louder to ...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: acura rdx or mercedes glc300 small luxury suv
Replies: 16
Views: 1144

Re: acura rdx or mercedes glc300 small luxury suv

If you go with the GLC300, a lot of dealers sell their service loaners as CPO cars at good discounts vs new MSRP, the cars usually have 5k miles or less and are 2019's. They usually don't have a lot of options on them though. You do get an extra year of unlimited-mileage warranty beyond the 4 yr/50...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 33
Views: 3871

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

A general 4% rule has been tested under a ton of circumstances, and there is no reason to believe that it won't provide a strong baseline into the future. Reality is that any sensible plan will contain enough margin of safety to handle some market gyrations and many retirees can put off some discre...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forgotten Expenses in Retirement--Travel
Replies: 32
Views: 2622

Re: Forgotten Expenses in Retirement--Travel

My game plan is to try to do a European trip plus a domestic trip/year. I came up with a general set-aside of about $7,500 to easily cover my expenses. Would that translate into retirement, or do things change much more than during working years? It's really hard to see how you can take two major t...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 33
Views: 3871

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

A general 4% rule has been tested under a ton of circumstances, and there is no reason to believe that it won't provide a strong baseline into the future. Reality is that any sensible plan will contain enough margin of safety to handle some market gyrations and many retirees can put off some discre...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 33
Views: 3871

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

Cherry-picking a few years and not indicating or showing later retirement and ending portfolio balance (which is $0) makes it easy to give the appearance that VPW has some sort of secret sauce in producing outsized income from portfolio. For the first 15 years of a relatively early retirement VPW a...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 33
Views: 3871

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

I like 5% of portfolio balance with 3% inflation adjusted floor. Automatically allows you to spend more in good years and less in bad. This would be interesting to backtest but I feel this would be much more sensitive to asset allocation with low equity portfolios that normally are fairly robust to...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: acura rdx or mercedes glc300 small luxury suv
Replies: 16
Views: 1144

Re: acura rdx or mercedes glc300 small luxury suv

We had a '16 GLC (current design, except that the 2020 has a newer infotainment system). Nice car, but ride and build quality did not measure up to our other car, a Porsche Macan, and of course in fun to drive it wasn't even remotely in the same league. I haven't driven the new RDX but would choose...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids
Replies: 192
Views: 14861

Re: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids

Some believe "teaching a man to fish" and leaving nothing is best. In my opinion, this seems like a bit of a contradictory idea. Seems to me that if you spend everything, that isn't really teaching responsibility (at least not by example). It is very possible to spend most or even all of one's reso...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

I wonder if the pro 100% stocks crowd would change their views if we have another great depression, with a 80% or more crash in the stock market, or a Japan like stock market that declines for many years. None of these outcomes seem likely due to the past 10 years of US stock performance. Search in...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids
Replies: 192
Views: 14861

Re: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids

Given the choice between wisdom and money, wisdom is robustly superior. Just look at how lottery winners almost universally turn out. Genuinely curious here, do lottery winners "universally" turn out poorly? I realize some or even many of them do, but I'd be really curious about the statistics. No ...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids
Replies: 192
Views: 14861

Re: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids

"Billionaires Warren Buffett and Bill Gates have similar ideas about how much money you should leave your kids" As for how much to pass on to your kids, Buffett once offered a good rule of thumb: The perfect amount to leave to your kids, he told Fortune in 1986, is ″enough money so that they would ...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

Nobody is saying to hold 100% stocks in retirement. Peopel are saying holding a high equity allocation til you are close to retirement and then derisk. randomguy, What is your definition of "close to retirement"? A) By portfolio size? B) By years? And, what is the actual number? For example, my FI ...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

Nobody is saying to hold 100% stocks in retirement. Peopel are saying holding a high equity allocation til you are close to retirement and then derisk. randomguy, What is your definition of "close to retirement"? A) By portfolio size? B) By years? And, what is the actual number? For example, my FI ...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

Watching this thread unfold has been really interesting. To "resolve" the debate I think a chart like KlangFool has put together would be useful, but extended into the future showing the hypothetical investor having to withdraw money due to retirement. Also, rather than using the average return for...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

It's never made sense to me to make your portfolio decisions based on such a long time period (30 years, for example). Sure, 100% stocks would seem to be the best mathematical choice...but this isn't an instantaneous process. You have decades to watch your end-date (retirement, for example) approac...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

randomguy, There is a significant difference between A) 17% difference over 30 years. B) 15% difference over one stock market crash. Anyhow, I had done my part as a community service before the coming recession to wake people up and save some people from 100/0. I wish someone could have done this f...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

One plan that a 100% equity investor could have is a plan to reduce their withdrawal rate due to the rapid growth over time that their portfolio is likely to achieve. Lets say someone that planned 30 years of work and went 100% equity. They most likely would be able to retire on a 2% withdrawal rat...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much money is really needed in retirement?
Replies: 74
Views: 9184

Re: How much money is really needed in retirement?

Yes, you can cut your expenses if you have to. Some people get by on social security alone, but you don't have many other options when you get old. By the time you're of age to collect SS, it will be difficult to find work even if you were willing and able to get a job. A barely getting by standard...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does leasing make sense in this case?
Replies: 45
Views: 2736

Re: Does leasing make sense in this case?

My fear is that we purchase the sedan and Mrs.AZAttorney11 decides in three years that she wants an SUV. I don't want to be in a position where we own a three year old luxury sedan with 21,000 - 24,000 miles (she does not drive very much) and we've absorbed a tremendous amount of depreciation that ...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

One plan that a 100% equity investor could have is a plan to reduce their withdrawal rate due to the rapid growth over time that their portfolio is likely to achieve. Lets say someone that planned 30 years of work and went 100% equity. They most likely would be able to retire on a 2% withdrawal rat...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

randomguy, <<And yes the right way to do this is to look at a zillion 30 year periods for your assumptions and to look at the distribution. You will find very few where holding 70/30 outperforms 100% stocks. >> Which won't matter. In order to hold 100/0 for 30 years, you need 30+30 = 60 years of in...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

randomguy, <<And yes the right way to do this is to look at a zillion 30 year periods for your assumptions and to look at the distribution. You will find very few where holding 70/30 outperforms 100% stocks. >> Which won't matter. In order to hold 100/0 for 30 years, you need 30+30 = 60 years of in...
by randomguy
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1979&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=10000&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do You Discount Your Retirement Number In Bull Markets
Replies: 25
Views: 2426

Re: Do You Discount Your Retirement Number In Bull Markets

During bear markets do you inflate your portfolio values by 20%?
by randomguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 367
Views: 21712

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

The point is to achieve your financial goal--whatever that is, and whenever you want it to be--with the amount of risk that is acceptable to you. If the riskiest portfolio at age 50 is acceptable to you, then by all means nobody is stopping you from going 100% stocks, or borrowing on margin. But if...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth 401K or Taxable
Replies: 53
Views: 2410

Re: Roth 401K or Taxable

But does a ROTH dollar where you have to wait 2 years to put it in the ROTH beat out a taxable dollar? I vote yes but it might be close depending on future tax rates. Perhaps I misunderstood OP, but I think s/he is saying the after-tax 401k contributions are going immediately to a Roth 401k (via in...