Search found 8247 matches

by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 28
Views: 2854

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

I don't see how reducing one's spending to 3.6% should be a problem for virtually everyone who would even consider implementing something akin to the '4% rule'. That's a mere 10% reduction, which should be easy for all but those with the very leanest of budgets to find. The trick is not to 'permane...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Saving seats on Southwest
Replies: 210
Views: 10862

Re: Saving seats on Southwest

How about the couples that choose the two aisle seats across from each other, hogging both 3 seat groups? What's wrong with that? It's open seating. If they both like aisles, they should do exactly this. Totally agree. Gill As long as they don't talk to each other (you need to talk a lot louder to ...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?
Replies: 42
Views: 2237

Re: Are complicated credit card cash back strategies worth it?

Assuming you're spending within your means, you obtain cards with rewards towards items you already spend $ on, and you're paying the balance off monthly, it can certainly be worth it. Why not go for a CC bonus strategy under those circumstances? For example, if I can get one card with 1.5% cash ba...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Saving seats on Southwest
Replies: 210
Views: 10862

Re: Saving seats on Southwest

How about the couples that choose the two aisle seats across from each other, hogging both 3 seat groups? What's wrong with that? It's open seating. If they both like aisles, they should do exactly this. Totally agree. Gill As long as they don't talk to each other (you need to talk a lot louder to ...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: acura rdx or mercedes glc300 small luxury suv
Replies: 16
Views: 1068

Re: acura rdx or mercedes glc300 small luxury suv

If you go with the GLC300, a lot of dealers sell their service loaners as CPO cars at good discounts vs new MSRP, the cars usually have 5k miles or less and are 2019's. They usually don't have a lot of options on them though. You do get an extra year of unlimited-mileage warranty beyond the 4 yr/50...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 28
Views: 2854

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

A general 4% rule has been tested under a ton of circumstances, and there is no reason to believe that it won't provide a strong baseline into the future. Reality is that any sensible plan will contain enough margin of safety to handle some market gyrations and many retirees can put off some discre...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Forgotten Expenses in Retirement--Travel
Replies: 27
Views: 1574

Re: Forgotten Expenses in Retirement--Travel

My game plan is to try to do a European trip plus a domestic trip/year. I came up with a general set-aside of about $7,500 to easily cover my expenses. Would that translate into retirement, or do things change much more than during working years? It's really hard to see how you can take two major t...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 28
Views: 2854

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

A general 4% rule has been tested under a ton of circumstances, and there is no reason to believe that it won't provide a strong baseline into the future. Reality is that any sensible plan will contain enough margin of safety to handle some market gyrations and many retirees can put off some discre...
by randomguy
Wed Nov 13, 2019 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 28
Views: 2854

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

Cherry-picking a few years and not indicating or showing later retirement and ending portfolio balance (which is $0) makes it easy to give the appearance that VPW has some sort of secret sauce in producing outsized income from portfolio. For the first 15 years of a relatively early retirement VPW a...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flaws with 4% Rule?
Replies: 28
Views: 2854

Re: Flaws with 4% Rule?

I like 5% of portfolio balance with 3% inflation adjusted floor. Automatically allows you to spend more in good years and less in bad. This would be interesting to backtest but I feel this would be much more sensitive to asset allocation with low equity portfolios that normally are fairly robust to...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: acura rdx or mercedes glc300 small luxury suv
Replies: 16
Views: 1068

Re: acura rdx or mercedes glc300 small luxury suv

We had a '16 GLC (current design, except that the 2020 has a newer infotainment system). Nice car, but ride and build quality did not measure up to our other car, a Porsche Macan, and of course in fun to drive it wasn't even remotely in the same league. I haven't driven the new RDX but would choose...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids
Replies: 152
Views: 11309

Re: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids

Some believe "teaching a man to fish" and leaving nothing is best. In my opinion, this seems like a bit of a contradictory idea. Seems to me that if you spend everything, that isn't really teaching responsibility (at least not by example). It is very possible to spend most or even all of one's reso...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

I wonder if the pro 100% stocks crowd would change their views if we have another great depression, with a 80% or more crash in the stock market, or a Japan like stock market that declines for many years. None of these outcomes seem likely due to the past 10 years of US stock performance. Search in...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids
Replies: 152
Views: 11309

Re: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids

Given the choice between wisdom and money, wisdom is robustly superior. Just look at how lottery winners almost universally turn out. Genuinely curious here, do lottery winners "universally" turn out poorly? I realize some or even many of them do, but I'd be really curious about the statistics. No ...
by randomguy
Tue Nov 12, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids
Replies: 152
Views: 11309

Re: Spend It All vs. Leave $$ for the Kids

"Billionaires Warren Buffett and Bill Gates have similar ideas about how much money you should leave your kids" As for how much to pass on to your kids, Buffett once offered a good rule of thumb: The perfect amount to leave to your kids, he told Fortune in 1986, is ″enough money so that they would ...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

Nobody is saying to hold 100% stocks in retirement. Peopel are saying holding a high equity allocation til you are close to retirement and then derisk. randomguy, What is your definition of "close to retirement"? A) By portfolio size? B) By years? And, what is the actual number? For example, my FI ...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

Nobody is saying to hold 100% stocks in retirement. Peopel are saying holding a high equity allocation til you are close to retirement and then derisk. randomguy, What is your definition of "close to retirement"? A) By portfolio size? B) By years? And, what is the actual number? For example, my FI ...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

Watching this thread unfold has been really interesting. To "resolve" the debate I think a chart like KlangFool has put together would be useful, but extended into the future showing the hypothetical investor having to withdraw money due to retirement. Also, rather than using the average return for...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

It's never made sense to me to make your portfolio decisions based on such a long time period (30 years, for example). Sure, 100% stocks would seem to be the best mathematical choice...but this isn't an instantaneous process. You have decades to watch your end-date (retirement, for example) approac...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

randomguy, There is a significant difference between A) 17% difference over 30 years. B) 15% difference over one stock market crash. Anyhow, I had done my part as a community service before the coming recession to wake people up and save some people from 100/0. I wish someone could have done this f...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

One plan that a 100% equity investor could have is a plan to reduce their withdrawal rate due to the rapid growth over time that their portfolio is likely to achieve. Lets say someone that planned 30 years of work and went 100% equity. They most likely would be able to retire on a 2% withdrawal rat...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much money is really needed in retirement?
Replies: 74
Views: 9127

Re: How much money is really needed in retirement?

Yes, you can cut your expenses if you have to. Some people get by on social security alone, but you don't have many other options when you get old. By the time you're of age to collect SS, it will be difficult to find work even if you were willing and able to get a job. A barely getting by standard...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does leasing make sense in this case?
Replies: 45
Views: 2722

Re: Does leasing make sense in this case?

My fear is that we purchase the sedan and Mrs.AZAttorney11 decides in three years that she wants an SUV. I don't want to be in a position where we own a three year old luxury sedan with 21,000 - 24,000 miles (she does not drive very much) and we've absorbed a tremendous amount of depreciation that ...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:41 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

One plan that a 100% equity investor could have is a plan to reduce their withdrawal rate due to the rapid growth over time that their portfolio is likely to achieve. Lets say someone that planned 30 years of work and went 100% equity. They most likely would be able to retire on a 2% withdrawal rat...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

randomguy, <<And yes the right way to do this is to look at a zillion 30 year periods for your assumptions and to look at the distribution. You will find very few where holding 70/30 outperforms 100% stocks. >> Which won't matter. In order to hold 100/0 for 30 years, you need 30+30 = 60 years of in...
by randomguy
Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

randomguy, <<And yes the right way to do this is to look at a zillion 30 year periods for your assumptions and to look at the distribution. You will find very few where holding 70/30 outperforms 100% stocks. >> Which won't matter. In order to hold 100/0 for 30 years, you need 30+30 = 60 years of in...
by randomguy
Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1979&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=1&annualAdjustment=10000&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do You Discount Your Retirement Number In Bull Markets
Replies: 25
Views: 2412

Re: Do You Discount Your Retirement Number In Bull Markets

During bear markets do you inflate your portfolio values by 20%?
by randomguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

The point is to achieve your financial goal--whatever that is, and whenever you want it to be--with the amount of risk that is acceptable to you. If the riskiest portfolio at age 50 is acceptable to you, then by all means nobody is stopping you from going 100% stocks, or borrowing on margin. But if...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth 401K or Taxable
Replies: 53
Views: 2364

Re: Roth 401K or Taxable

But does a ROTH dollar where you have to wait 2 years to put it in the ROTH beat out a taxable dollar? I vote yes but it might be close depending on future tax rates. Perhaps I misunderstood OP, but I think s/he is saying the after-tax 401k contributions are going immediately to a Roth 401k (via in...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

This post still misses the point. What is "paying off"? What is "winning"? You're looking at this from the perspective that absolute maximization of money is the goal, that it's "winning" or getting a "pay off." That may be the goal for a few. It is not the goal for everyone. Many investors don't r...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Halloween Candy - Favorites; Throw it in the Bag
Replies: 61
Views: 3229

Re: Halloween Candy - Favorites; Throw it in the Bag

The real danger that your kids face is traffic. Dressing up your kids in dark costumes and having them walk around in masks with impeded visibility does result in fatalities. Watching out for traffic and teaching your kids caution is the best way to keep them safe. Kids are 300% more likely to be st...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?
Replies: 182
Views: 8787

Re: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?

Or you could throw a ~$12k party and get <$500 in cash and gifts. That's the story of my first wedding. I was guilted into paying for (former) FIL to have a party. Majority of attendees were FILs friends who my (ex) wife didn't even know. I had just moved across the country from where I grew up so ...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth 401K or Taxable
Replies: 53
Views: 2364

Re: Roth 401K or Taxable

A mega back door Roth 401k dollar > taxable dollar. All the dividends and gains over the next 20, 30, 40 years of a Roth 401k dollar are tax free. A taxable dollar has cap gains tax and dividends are taxed. A Roth 401k dollar can eventually be rolled to your Roth IRA. How about do 50-50? Or get to ...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If I save $65,000 a year for the next 25 years
Replies: 34
Views: 4217

Re: If I save $65,000 a year for the next 25 years

You are essentially saying that the 5% figure is nominal, and therefore only 2% real return. Hard to believe that stocks would return only 2% real returns over 2.5 decades. It is possible I suppose, but I would put the probability as very low. The 5% figure used by fortfun is closer to the historic...
by randomguy
Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

I respect the knowledge of this forum greatly, but I think most bond rules & beliefs are "old school". I went 100% S&P 500 index till a few months ago. I now have enough to retire at 55 in a year, which I wouldn't have if I would have followed others on bonds. I now keep 5-10 years in CDs as my fix...
by randomguy
Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

The correct answer should be except in the impossible period of straight 20 to 30 years of bull market with no serious market decline, 70/30 will beat 100/0. KlangFool 70/30 will beat 100/0 for brief periods of time. But as the time period extends out, those periods of outperformance become rarer L...
by randomguy
Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:46 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?
Replies: 182
Views: 8787

Re: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?

So who had a more expensive wedding: a) couple who spend 20k and got 40k of cash/gifts or b) couple who paid 200 bucks to get married down at the court house and got nothing Seems like having a wedding might be the smart move:) Clearly a) had a far more expensive wedding. In your made up scenario t...
by randomguy
Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m done with index funds
Replies: 201
Views: 20461

Re: I’m done with index funds

There is sort of a perverse logic here, that you win by losing. I think of "The Producers", one of my favorite movies of all time. A play within a movie where two conmen get investors to oversubscribe investing in a play, in other words they sold interest in the play several times over. The only wa...
by randomguy
Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I’m done with index funds
Replies: 201
Views: 20461

Re: I’m done with index funds

Crazy idea here; not sure if this is or is not common practice. Couldn't you take a year off and structure it so that you don't make any income that year and take advantage of the 0% cap gains bracket? This is under the premise that you are most concerned about the one-off cap gains tax from the hi...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20 yr review of Mel's Unloved Midcaps
Replies: 43
Views: 9686

Re: 20 yr review of Mel's Unloved Midcaps

From 2004-2019 small, mid, and large cap perform about the same. Huh? The S&P 400 (mid-caps) beat the S&P 500 (large-caps) by roughly 0.75% CAGR over that period, and the S&P 600 (small caps) beat it by roughly 1%. What indices are you using to represent the various cap buckets? I was actually look...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20 yr review of Mel's Unloved Midcaps
Replies: 43
Views: 9686

Re: 20 yr review of Mel's Unloved Midcaps

I was playing around with portfolio visualizer and I find this interesting: From 1979-1999 small, mid, and large cap perform about the same. From 2004-2019 small, mid, and large cap perform about the same. From 1999-2004 midcap and small cap perform massively better than large cap. The period of ou...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 30, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding bonds vs 100% equities
Replies: 311
Views: 18710

Re: Holding bonds vs 100% equities

Mathematically, 100% equities is likely to be optimal if you are a long way from retirement. However, I recommend only 80% equities until you have been through a bear market with a stock-heavy portfolio, so that you actually know your risk tolerance. Many investors pulled out of the stock market in...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I want a pre-made, wholesome lunch delivered to me daily for under $15. Options?
Replies: 52
Views: 4685

Re: I want a pre-made, wholesome lunch delivered to me daily for under $15. Options?

I recently started using Freshly (as in my first order came last week). So far it seems to be a nice variety of meals and decent tasting (some have been better than others). While I don't think the food is blatantly unhealthy, I'm a little dismayed at the amount of cholesterol and sodium in most of...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?
Replies: 182
Views: 8787

Re: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?

Only things that are essential are LIVE music, great food, and open bar. I have been to plenty of great wedding with none of your 3 things. They didn't drink for religious reasons. They used a DJ. And the food was mediocre at best. It was a still a great wedding because the only truely essential th...
by randomguy
Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Go BIG or go home... [Sell employer stock?]
Replies: 19
Views: 1562

Re: Go BIG or go home...

Hello fellow Bogleheads! I have been investing like a Boglehead for more than 10 years now and I have never ever regretted it. I joined a biotech a few months back. Great company with many fellow nerds and great science. This is not a small biotech ($30 bil mkt cap). I believe in the company and ha...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?
Replies: 182
Views: 8787

Re: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?

There are Asian cultures where it is expected that you throw a wedding celebration for the entire community. On a PPP absis these events would probably cost six-figures. These are the same Asian cultures that are lauded for sacrifice, high savings rates, diligent work, and emphasis on education. Ma...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 28, 2019 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Popeyes Chicken Sandwich [is it a good value]
Replies: 40
Views: 2411

Re: Popeyes Chicken Sandwich [is it a good value]

Unfortunately, it does not appear that Restaurant Brands International Inc (NYSE: QSR) is represented in VTSAX. They are Popeyes parent company. I only eat what I own. Addendum... Berkshire Hathaway owns a 4.8% stake. So, I can try it now. Good thing I believe in international diversification:) I d...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?
Replies: 182
Views: 8787

Re: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?

You bring up a great point. Would you be more apt to pay more if you really liked the future bride/groom? I would find it very hard to pay for my daughter's wedding if I didn't like the guy or didn't think it would work out...50% don't. It is more like 1/3rd of first marriages don't work out. I don...
by randomguy
Mon Oct 28, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?
Replies: 182
Views: 8787

Re: How much do you plan to spend on your children's weddings?

alex_686 wrote:
Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:46 pm

Bogleheads tend to be a practical lot. Why spend money on a fancy party?
Bogleheads tend to think of themselves as a practical lot. Then they post long threads trying to justify the impractical choice they want to make..