Search found 7347 matches

by randomguy
Thu Apr 18, 2019 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 39406

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Well, a percentage savings rate is more than just for bragging about your frugality. It's closely tied to how long it will you to reach financial independence. Assuming 5% real returns and 4% withdrawals, it takes almost 17 years to reach FI with a 50% savings rate as opposed to nearly 37 years wit...
by randomguy
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 39406

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

If you earn $100k gross, then a 50% savings rate means that you're saving $50k. There are whole threads on if you should measure your savings rate off gross or net. MMM uses net in his blog posts. Both net and gross suck in different ways. Compare 2 cases 1 million dollar income 400k taxes 100 spen...
by randomguy
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 39406

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Please show where the failure rate is 80% for a 50 year retirement with SS of $40k-50k a year kicks in after 25 years. On the other hand, taking on 2 extra years at a young age is not the end of the world if work is not unbearable and affecting one's health and family. Firecalc 40 year old. 1 milli...
by randomguy
Thu Apr 18, 2019 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 39406

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

randomguy, The crap people are giving you is in regards to sequence of return risk. This risk occurs in the first 5 years of retirement. If you can avoid the worst in the first 5 years, you are golden and good to go. In this example of yours let's start at 25x and a job and we need to decide if we ...
by randomguy
Thu Apr 18, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 39406

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

I don't know that [Klangfool] recommends a 50% savings rate, but he certainly practices that. He certainly doesn't recommend a 100% savings rate. I think he does recommend saving 50%, although he words it as saving 100% of current annual expenses. Not sure if taxes are included in expenses though. ...
by randomguy
Thu Apr 18, 2019 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 39406

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

It takes about 6 years in most case to go from 25x to 40x with normal returns(6%) and modest savings rate (.5x). If we get poor returns (2%) real then it takes longer. But if we get 2% real, that 4% is going to think about going back to work as they get poorer and poorer every year. And obviously y...
by randomguy
Thu Apr 18, 2019 1:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not Maxing 401K OK?
Replies: 53
Views: 5253

Re: Not Maxing 401K OK?

I assume OP is in 12% bracket. The bracket ends at about $77,000 dollars for MFJ. Thus, in retirement one must be showing more $77k in taxable income before they will be kicked into the next bracket (i.e. before Roth makes sense). With a $24k standard deduction, that means you have to be withdrawin...
by randomguy
Thu Apr 18, 2019 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 39406

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

It takes about 6 years in most case to go from 25x to 40x with normal returns(6%) and modest savings rate (.5x). If we get poor returns (2%) real then it takes longer. But if we get 2% real, that 4% is going to think about going back to work as they get poorer and poorer every year. And obviously y...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car recommendations?
Replies: 104
Views: 8147

Re: Luxury car recommendations?

Don't buy BMW. Lease is OK. The BMW V8 leaks wherever there's gasket after 130K miles. This is a widespread issue, not isolated incident. I had to replace valve cover gaskets ($1k+), alternator gasket ($7 part, 6 hr of labors - $1k+), water pump leaked, oil pan leaked, coolant hose broke off, coola...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Not Maxing 401K OK?
Replies: 53
Views: 5253

Re: Not Maxing 401K OK?

So I see lots of folks on here maxing 401K’s. Question is: For us mortals with lower income, is it ok to not max? Deets below... I’m 40, wife 36. I gross $50K, she grosses $76K. I save 18% pre tax VTSAX, Roth maxed out (2018 was my first Roth sadly, wife too) we invest in mostly VTI in Roth’s. She ...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car recommendations?
Replies: 104
Views: 8147

Re: Luxury car recommendations?

IMO you aren’t missing anything. I had a Benz for many years and it was honestly the worst car I’ve ever had. Within a week you will tire of the do-dads and nick-knacks (which all cost a fortune to fix). Buy a Volkswagen to get some higher build quality without the gimmicks and be done IMO. I would...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 8:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 39406

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Sure but the guy with 40x and a job is better than the retiree with 25x who hasn't worked the past 10 years. Period!:) Of course I retired at 33 at ~10x and have been fine. The self employment work I have done for the past decade is just a hobby and doesn't count as working:) Can't argue with that,...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 39406

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

I guess the difference comes from some people believing the main uncertainty in life is how much time we have left, and others believing the issue is how much money they have left. It is more about how unpleasant people find work and how much it interfers with their lives. Some people just make poo...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 39406

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Also, in a great depression event I would rather be 25x with 40% bonds and unemployed vs 5x and 40% bonds with a job that just laid me off. 25x with 40% bonds has 10 years of living expenses built in. 5x is screwed. You can not deny that having financial independence earlier in life is better. Peri...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 39406

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

Also, in a great depression event I would rather be 25x with 40% bonds and unemployed vs 5x and 40% bonds with a job that just laid me off. 25x with 40% bonds has 10 years of living expenses built in. 5x is screwed. You can not deny that having financial independence earlier in life is better. Peri...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car recommendations?
Replies: 104
Views: 8147

Re: Luxury car recommendations?

I'd at least test drive a Tesla Model S. A Lexus ES or Avalon will be a small step up from a Camry. The Tesla is a radically different experience. The complete silence of the powertrain is a pretty luxury feature IMO. Are you also going to test drive a bently? Why drive a car that costs 2x as much ...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation
Replies: 524
Views: 39406

Re: Mr. Money Mustache, SWR, and equity allocation

And employed people (with less savings) will be in better shape because of.... what? You don't have to work during the great depression, you can do something lucrative and decrease your SWR ahead of it. Why do we even discuss a century old event? Do something lucrative like keep working your job?:)...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car recommendations?
Replies: 104
Views: 8147

Re: Luxury car recommendations?

I'd at least test drive a Tesla Model S. A Lexus ES or Avalon will be a small step up from a Camry. The Tesla is a radically different experience. The complete silence of the powertrain is a pretty luxury feature IMO. Are you also going to test drive a bently? Why drive a car that costs 2x as much ...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car recommendations?
Replies: 104
Views: 8147

Re: Luxury car recommendations?

The Lexus ES is really just a high trim level Camry. Basically a Camry with leather and some extra options. I see this trope repeated over and over on these forums, but it has not been true for 7 years. The 2012+ ES350 is based on the Avalon; there is no current Lexus model based on the Camry. Both...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car recommendations?
Replies: 104
Views: 8147

Re: Luxury car recommendations?

That is more of a Mercedes experience than a luxury car one. If only it didn't cost $60-70k to test your hypothesis :D , I've heard similar from BMW owners FWIW, and Acura/Lexus just feel too cheap to me vs. German brands. My reasoning has a bit more basis than simply my experience with Benz though...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: I give up on discount movie apps....
Replies: 11
Views: 1054

Re: I give up on discount movie apps....

Business whose model depends on raising venture capital to stay in business are always pretty risky to to make a long term commitment to. When the money gets low, things get sketchy. Paying by the month is fine. Signing up for a year in advance is just asking for problems.
by randomguy
Wed Apr 17, 2019 12:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "When Adding to Your Retirement Account is a Bad Idea"
Replies: 29
Views: 3811

Re: "When Adding to Your Retirement Account is a Bad Idea"

You also need to take account the tax bracket that you may have and the tax brackets that your heirs will have in the future. If you have been successful, your tax brackets will be higher than what your heirs will inherit if they are low wage earners. There are many complexities in the tax code, an...
by randomguy
Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Chat Applications (Software) Monitoring
Replies: 3
Views: 366

Re: Chat Applications (Software) Monitoring

Does anyone know if it's possible to either download or buy software that monitors/censors chat applications used for gaming and other conversations? I'm not technically illiterate but I wasn't aware that there are chat applications where it seems like the wild west, and more than just innocent cha...
by randomguy
Tue Apr 16, 2019 11:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "When Adding to Your Retirement Account is a Bad Idea"
Replies: 29
Views: 3811

Re: "When Adding to Your Retirement Account is a Bad Idea"

If you are equity heavy and expecting a high rate of return on stocks in the future, RMD's from your traditional accounts can be a good problem to have. You never hear this, but the best thing to happen if you are trying to transfer assets to the next generation, is to have stocks have a major decl...
by randomguy
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reverse Mortgage for Sequence of return risk
Replies: 30
Views: 1292

Re: Reverse Mortgage for Sequence of return risk

In general, reverse mortgages are looked on as a last resort when people don't have enough money to live on. Sequence of returns risk would be better served by adjusting your aa imho. I don't think loans in general are a good way to fund retirement. You don't give any other information so it is har...
by randomguy
Tue Apr 16, 2019 6:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Are RMDs that bad if you're not an over-saver?
Replies: 139
Views: 12218

Re: Are RMDs that bad if you're not an over-saver?

So why are RMDs so bad, just that you're forced to pay a bit more in taxes? Why do you assume they are so bad? MPT Pay one time tax Roth or pay multiple time taxes over RMD in Traditional? It seems to me very clear. Only if your goal is to minimize tax payments. If you want to maximize spendable mo...
by randomguy
Tue Apr 16, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: "When Adding to Your Retirement Account is a Bad Idea"
Replies: 29
Views: 3811

Re: "When Adding to Your Retirement Account is a Bad Idea"

This guy seems to be focused on minimizing taxes (in some absolute way) rather than maximizing spendable money. Lets compare his solution 2 of using taxable instead of tax deferred 100k to invest. Money will go up 10x over the lifespan. You are paying 40% taxes on OI, 20% on LTGC a) tax deferred 100...
by randomguy
Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals
Replies: 126
Views: 12881

Re: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals

Sure. And so does 0%. Either can be easily defended. Both tend to be pretty stupid except for extreme cases. Lets say your at 100x and are 50 years old. What is the point of going 100% bonds. Why not build a 50 year bond ladder (or buy annuities if your older), and then invest the rest in some reas...
by randomguy
Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals
Replies: 126
Views: 12881

Re: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals

I believe studies have shown that 100% equities isn't the best allocation for maximum long term growth of your portfolio. I believe it is something like 80/20. I think that is because there are stretches of time when bonds out perform equities and maybe because it allows for using some fixed income...
by randomguy
Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Layoff - Early 60's
Replies: 13
Views: 2150

Re: Layoff - Early 60's

Board indexUS InvestorsPersonal Finance (Not Investing) It does sound like things will be fine for you. No one should ever plan or expect to work beyond the age of 50 years old (if you are an employee). Good luck to you. And yet most people who are 50+ who want a job, have one. The cost to be FI by...
by randomguy
Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car recommendations?
Replies: 104
Views: 8147

Re: Luxury car recommendations?

IMO you aren’t missing anything. I had a Benz for many years and it was honestly the worst car I’ve ever had. Within a week you will tire of the do-dads and nick-knacks (which all cost a fortune to fix). Buy a Volkswagen to get some higher build quality without the gimmicks and be done IMO. I would...
by randomguy
Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals
Replies: 126
Views: 12881

Re: Does 100% stocks make sense for very high net worth individuals

I believe studies have shown that 100% equities isn't the best allocation for maximum long term growth of your portfolio. I believe it is something like 80/20. I think that is because there are stretches of time when bonds out perform equities and maybe because it allows for using some fixed income...
by randomguy
Mon Apr 15, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do 40 year olds decide what they can afford?
Replies: 85
Views: 9573

Re: How do 40 year olds decide what they can afford?

First I think you need to take a hard look at what you are trying to “afford” here - it is a list of fairly pointless amusements. No one that I’m aware of has ever said on their death bed “I should have bought a drone...” I am also unaware of anyone on their death bed saying they should have saved ...
by randomguy
Sun Apr 14, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car recommendations?
Replies: 104
Views: 8147

Re: Luxury car recommendations?

No one mentioned Acura TL yet. It is not as expensive as Lexus and not as luxurious. However, it is a solid car, very comfortable to drive, reliable and low road noise. It comes standard with leather seats. I would definitely test drive one. I have had a TL and now have a Camry. Acura was way more ...
by randomguy
Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car recommendations?
Replies: 104
Views: 8147

Re: Luxury car recommendations?

Thanks much for your responses so far! Let me clarify a few common questions. It may sound crazy but I'm considering to spend a bit more on cars because I'm fortunate in a position to be able to, not because I really care about cars :-) So I'm looking for some amenity like leather seats, quieter ru...
by randomguy
Sun Apr 14, 2019 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who were wondering what really happened...
Replies: 17
Views: 6562

Re: For those who were wondering what really happened...

I asked Allan Roth. :happy Rick Ferri Just remember if your schedule fills up, you are not charging enough. I must admit it seems like sort of a niche service between the people who will do it all themselves and the ones that want to outsource most of it . How many people will rebalance, do tax eff...
by randomguy
Sun Apr 14, 2019 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Luxury car recommendations?
Replies: 104
Views: 8147

Re: Luxury car recommendations?

The Lexus large LS sedans are remarkable luxury cars, although oriented more towards plushness than towards an engaging driving experience. BMW's 5 and 7 series, and Mercedes E and S class sedans offer a bit (or a lot, depending on trim level, and especially in the M and AMG variants, respectively)...
by randomguy
Sun Apr 14, 2019 6:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My pet peeve with Vanguard Personal Advisory Service
Replies: 14
Views: 2669

Re: My pet peeve with Vanguard Personal Advisory Service

I agree. I’m happy that Vanguard is trying to bring fees down with their PAS product. Also, I was very happy to hear Vanguard’s CEO, Tim Buckley, state a top company priority is to continue to disrupt the advice space, and to reduce advice fees further (on a recent Vanguard podcast). However, I wis...
by randomguy
Sun Apr 14, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you have plenty of money, why not 100% stocks in retirement?
Replies: 107
Views: 7013

Re: If you have plenty of money, why not 100% stocks in retirement?

5) except for 1803-1871 (68 years) and 1968-2009 (41 years). ( Source: see figure 1 ) Even though I think it's a good gamble that stocks will have higher returns than bonds for 2019 through 2050, you still shouldn't reduce a complicated set of facts to a simple "stocks return better than bonds." So...
by randomguy
Sun Apr 14, 2019 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: If you have plenty of money, why not 100% stocks in retirement?
Replies: 107
Views: 7013

Re: If you have plenty of money, why not 100% stocks in retirement?

Define plenty of money? 40x expenses? 50x expenses? 100x expenses? 400x expenses? Stock market dropped 90% in the depression. If you had 100x expenses all of a sudden you’d only have 10x expenses. Would you feel secure then? How about a billion x? Or infinite X? Think of all the people living on pe...
by randomguy
Sat Apr 13, 2019 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 6875

Re: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?

So as someone entering retirement that will not be working due to health issues, what is a reasonable AA? (I'm cautiously optimistic about the future, maybe that's not the wisest attitude). 50/50 +-15% covers most situations. Reality is that the differences are unlikely to matter much between holdi...
by randomguy
Sat Apr 13, 2019 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?
Replies: 94
Views: 6875

Re: Is the disaster scenario for stocks a reason not to invest or pull out of the market?

If the disaster scenario for investing in stocks they drop 50% the day after you invest and don't recover for 3-5 years is that really a reason to be going to cash or avoid putting new money into equities? Or do people have an even more dire scenario in mind? I think everyone agrees that stocks cou...
by randomguy
Fri Apr 12, 2019 11:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ORP says I should stop all pre-tax contribs
Replies: 75
Views: 5860

Re: ORP says I should stop all pre-tax contribs

livesoft wrote: Make sure you use the same expected annual growth in all your investment accounts. Otherwise i-ORP always says to put the most money in the highest growth account if you can. It also says to withdraw first from the lowest growth account. I don't have any reason to doubt that this is...
by randomguy
Fri Apr 12, 2019 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 4% SWR - how confident are you?
Replies: 117
Views: 8037

Re: 4% SWR - how confident are you?

Yes, it is refreshing to hear from someone who isn't overly pessimistic. While watching that video, I was thinking about the argument that high valuations should lead to a lower SWR going forward, but despite the most cited valuation metric, CAPE, having been 'historically high' since 1992, retiree...
by randomguy
Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: About to buy a 2019 Mazda CX-5. To turbo or not to turbo...
Replies: 72
Views: 4274

Re: About to buy a 2019 Mazda CX-5. To turbo or not to turbo...

It's probably close enough to not matter much, but I don't see how it would be physically possible for that to be true. Torque directly relates to cylinder pressure, which is the same factor that affects knocking. If the engine is limiting the air+fuel charge in response to detecting lower octane f...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 10, 2019 10:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: About to buy a 2019 Mazda CX-5. To turbo or not to turbo...
Replies: 72
Views: 4274

Re: About to buy a 2019 Mazda CX-5. To turbo or not to turbo...

Sure, tech and features have always evolved. However, not at this pace. The pace could drastically devalue older used cars at some point. I can tell you, the difference between a 1995 and a 2004 and the difference between a 2010 and 2019 are not the same. Feels like it is the same pace as always. S...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: About to buy a 2019 Mazda CX-5. To turbo or not to turbo...
Replies: 72
Views: 4274

Re: About to buy a 2019 Mazda CX-5. To turbo or not to turbo...

Though I tend to keep cars a long time (13 yrs the last one, 10 years the one before), I don't know if going forward things will be exactly the same. Tech is obviously evolving at a much greater pace. Between tech, mpg, safety features, self/assisted driving, etc. I am dampening my view on keeping ...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 11673

Re: International under-performance

20 is definitely too low of a number, but if you believe in the EMH, it shouldn't be necessary at all to own a global market-cap weighted portfolio in order to reliably emulate its risk-adjusted returns. 20 is enough to get almost all of the benefit of diversification. Just look how closely the Dow...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: YouTube TV is increasing their price - will you cancel it?
Replies: 63
Views: 4633

Re: YouTube TV is increasing their price - will you cancel it?

I’ll keep it. Still a large savings over what I had been paying for cable. And the DVR is great. It is getting pretty close to what I am paying for cable. In the next round they will add another 5 channels and the price will be the same:) The good part is you don't have to switch cable providers ev...
by randomguy
Wed Apr 10, 2019 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Comparing mid-size SUVs for towing -- Hyundai vs Kia leading
Replies: 54
Views: 3188

Re: Comparing mid-size SUVs for towing -- Hyundai vs Kia leading

Yes, that can occasionally tow, but tow safely. I am realizing my favorite beach spot entails a decent "uphill both directions" grade coming and going, but even so, it's one or two miles. Bottom line, once I get trailer completely nailed down, all of this will fall into place. Getting up to 6200 lb...