Search found 91 matches

by rapporteur
Mon Jan 02, 2017 2:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 23604

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

Dear dognose, Sell you my old crystal ball? Problem is the shocks and ball-joints are shot, the frame is badly rusted, and there may be other hidden wear and tear. People, especially inexperienced people, can harm themselves using these things, even a new one - I just wouldn’t feel right selling it ...
by rapporteur
Mon Jan 02, 2017 12:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 23604

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

HomerJ said, What killed bonds at the end of that 40-year period was double-digit inflation. While that is a real threat (no pun intended), rising interest rates alone do not kill bond returns. Not so! (1) Over the first 30 years of that period (i.e., 4/1941-3/71) inflation ran at 3.5% annually, now...
by rapporteur
Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 23604

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

Dear sperry8, You have made several incisive posts in this thread, but I don’t think they have gotten the attention they deserve. For instance, you made some excellent points about the Japanese ‘L’ and how international diversification would have muted that tremendously. I would add one other point ...
by rapporteur
Sun Jan 01, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 23604

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

Dear saltycaper, I don't know if you're familiar with the programming concept of indirection and pointers, but I'll use the analogy anyway. I am NOT advising people to adopt an equity-heavy retirement portfolio, but I AM advising people to examine the historical record and draw their own conclusions...
by rapporteur
Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 23604

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

Dear saltycaper, You said, Either you're going to do something with an observation (or allow the observation to do something to you), or you're not. If not, you're just wasting time by making observations. I think you've missed the point; I did do something with those observations, something quite i...
by rapporteur
Sun Jan 01, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 23604

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

Rodc said, But you do not even understand the difference in information content of 100 highly correlated data values and 100 independent data values. Oh, but I do!(1) And what I understand, apparently far better than you, about such long strings of uncorrelated values, is that they don’t exist, they...
by rapporteur
Sat Dec 31, 2016 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 23604

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

Dear skjoldur and dear Quark, Only 3 nonoverlapping 30-year periods? Pointing to 100 years of US history totally misses the point? I feel your pain. You long for a tame, tractable, consistent world. A world where all financial series are i.i.d, totally stationary, we know what underlying distributio...
by rapporteur
Sat Dec 31, 2016 1:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 23604

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

Johnnie asked, OK, over 30 or 40 years the risk of heavy-equity is pretty nil, but what about the sequence of returns risk described in the article for those who start distribution on the threshold of a nasty bear and extended period of mediocre returns? .... For example ... 1966-82 The nifty thing ...
by rapporteur
Fri Dec 30, 2016 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 23604

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

Dear Mr Swedroe, You said, I strongly disagree with the conclusions of rapporteur. I don't agree that you can draw any such conclusion from the data. And that isn't even true in the US…. Here is a graph by the noted academic and retirement researcher, Dr Wade Pfau: https://3a05ty2ohkvc1zboze4eczal-w...
by rapporteur
Thu Dec 29, 2016 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 23604

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

Ah, sancta simplicitas! Dear HomerJ, it’s so good we have you. In fact, if we didn’t, I suspect we’d have to invent you. :happy First, let me get the bad news out of the way. You asked (inter alia), Are you going to personally make up my losses if the above (1) actually does happen? No, HomerJ, no o...
by rapporteur
Thu Dec 29, 2016 2:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 23604

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

protagonist said, Life is a gamble no matter how you play it. …. 100% stocks is obviously risky in retirement. Having made one side of the case, it’s time for me to present the other. Yes, ANY retirement strategy is a gamble. The question, then, as protagonist so accurately pinpointed it, is HOW to ...
by rapporteur
Wed Dec 28, 2016 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 23604

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

Dear qwertyjazz, Thank you for inviting me to dance, but amusing (and instructive) as it might be for you, I will reiterate the decision I stated upthread, …I have chosen not to go in that direction. However, lest in your eagerness to draw me astray you confuse yourself instead, let me remind you th...
by rapporteur
Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager
Replies: 187
Views: 23604

Re: Bernstein-"To Make Money They Didn't Need".....and Pascal's Wager

Dear jcraz13, You asked: For those of you advocating a higher percentage in stocks in retirement, what say you? First of all, as an advocate of a high-equity allocation in retirement, I would say to you what I said to Mr Larimore: Of course, one need never take *unnecessary* risk in retirement! …by ...
by rapporteur
Tue Dec 27, 2016 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your Rebalancing Band (3+ funds)?
Replies: 9
Views: 1346

Re: What is your Rebalancing Band (3+ funds)?

A deep, insightful paper on rebalancing (bands, frequency, costs, benefits, etc.):

Opportunistic Rebalancing: A New Paradigm for Wealth Managers
http://resource.fpanet.org/resource/09B ... yanani.pdf

Regards,
by rapporteur
Tue Dec 20, 2016 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

nedsaid said: I have to stick up for Taylor here.... Quite so - Mr Larimore has earned the respect that is paid him. I challenged his position, not because I think it's valueless, but precisely because it is a worthy contender in the arena of investment ideas. But even a worthy contender isn't exemp...
by rapporteur
Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Dear pkcrafter, You said: ...The only problem is your absolute conviction that 100% stock cannot fail. I've heard stock investing is risky, but you don't seem to think so. That belief makes one suspect your analysis and conclusion is lacking sufficient analysis. Just sayin' There is an old Zen sayin...
by rapporteur
Tue Dec 20, 2016 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Dear lackey, Lackey said: I said 4% ERP… In the immortal words of Gilda Ratner on Saturday Night Live, “Never mind.” [although I did produce a superb refutation of the post you *didn’t* make :-)] As for how to construct a portfolio, I'm a Fama-French-Carhart aficionado. I like to believe I'm an inde...
by rapporteur
Tue Dec 20, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Dear Clive, While you sound some valuable cautionary notes, overall I think your position is untenable. For instance, in the last century (the 1900s), the US was very far indeed from being an emerging economy – or even from emerging from being an emerging economy :-) US GDP had overtaken that of Gre...
by rapporteur
Tue Dec 20, 2016 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Dear lackey, How enticing your specious reasoning is – I can’t restrain myself from answering :-) (1) I see I’ve now moved you up to 60/40 (normally considered a pretty aggressive retirement portfolio - one might even say it flies in the face of conventional wisdom). Good, good (as the Emperor might...
by rapporteur
Tue Dec 20, 2016 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Dear Clive, The historical record is clear – very high equity in a retirement portfolio not only produces the best returns in good times (nice!) but provides the best protection in bad times (essential!). FI would be great if it provided what it seems to promise - safety – but the track record is th...
by rapporteur
Tue Dec 20, 2016 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Dear lackey, I spoke above about the difference between financial caution and financial cowardice. It’s said that a coward dies a thousand deaths… Well, a financial coward imagines a thousand black swans any one of which will peck his portfolio to death. So he foolishly tries to cobble together a po...
by rapporteur
Mon Dec 19, 2016 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Dear lackey, You said, If you're for example 100% stocks, I think 3.6% withdrawal rate is safe for let's say 30 years. Or something like that, maybe a little more. Anyway, let's say you're minding your business withdrawing about that much, and five years later your account balance is about 50% of th...
by rapporteur
Mon Dec 19, 2016 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Dear Yordle, You said: Hear hear rapporteur! A better rebuttal than I was planning. To paraphrase the “Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy,” “Am I not a more fierce disputant than the neutronwrangler of Ciceronicus V?” In short, I love to argue, whatever the topic. I was trained in argumentation and rh...
by rapporteur
Mon Dec 19, 2016 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Dear Mr Larimore, I’m going to take the liberty of dealing with your points out of order. First: I have been retired for 35 years so I've also had experience on what works and what doesn't. As I understand it, you retired in the early 1980s. If so, then Fortune truly smiled on you; you were dealt, i...
by rapporteur
Mon Dec 19, 2016 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Dear Mr Larimore, Of course, you’re right – one shouldn’t take unnecessary risk during retirement. But that’s just the point. Counterintuitive as it may seem, an equity-heavy retirement portfolio is less risky – far less risky – than an FI-heavy portfolio. The historical record across the globe and ...
by rapporteur
Mon Dec 19, 2016 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Quark said (conditionally, and inter alia): ...then history is not a reliable guide History may not be a reliable guide, but it's the ONLY guide we have (unless, perhaps, someone has access to a burning bush or unclouded crystal ball). All there is - regarding ANY subject, from dog training to quant...
by rapporteur
Mon Dec 19, 2016 1:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Yordle asked: Why indeed did the author wimp out? Why are most "expert" guidelines all recommending a bond heavy portfolio? I agree, some people can't stomach a crash... but I believe people should be presented a more nuanced discussion of the topic. Dogma is a hard thing to change Yes indeedy. As K...
by rapporteur
Sun Dec 18, 2016 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement
Replies: 166
Views: 15813

Re: The Argument for More Stocks in Retirement

Dear Yordle, The historical record is pellucidly clear: higher equity (at least 75%) has consistently led to higher SWR in most countries (although the bulk of the studies are for the US). Even the classic study by Bengen that put SWR on the map recognized this. Examine Exhibit 1 from this online ar...
by rapporteur
Thu Dec 08, 2016 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?
Replies: 35
Views: 3070

Re: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?

If one insists on a setting a SWR at the beginning of retirement, how to 'value' one's portfolio? First, this is a stupendously bad strategy. 'Set it and forget it' for perhaps a forty-year retirement almost guarantees that one will either founder on the Scylla of financial ruin having prematurely d...
by rapporteur
Thu Dec 08, 2016 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?
Replies: 35
Views: 3070

Re: How do you "value" your portfolio for SWR?

I'm going to 'misinterpret' the question in order to answer a related one: So, how do I 'value' my portfolio? [...for SWR or any other purpose] The most important part of my valuation is to bring the tax-sheltered and tax-exposed portions of my portfolio to a common basis in terms of principal (i.e....
by rapporteur
Wed Dec 07, 2016 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe's book
Replies: 25
Views: 3552

Re: Swedroe's book

Dear Mr Swedroe, I purchased the paper version of "Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing" and found it interesting and informative. However, my early-run copy has all the errors and omissions described above. May I suggest that you, the publisher, or possibly even Amazon, put up an "Errata" ...
by rapporteur
Mon Nov 21, 2016 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retail FX "Investing" [Foreign Exchange]
Replies: 16
Views: 2254

Re: Retail FX "Investing" [Foreign Exchange]

I "invest" in currencies, to (grudgingly) use the tendentious term in the thread's title. More accurately, I *hedge* foreign currencies. I'm Canadian - to me the US dollar is a foreign currency, just as the Euro, Yen, and GB Pound are. The Canadian dollar - my 'home' currency - has been a petrocurre...
by rapporteur
Tue Nov 01, 2016 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 41458

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

Dear HomerJ, You truly have a vicelike grasp of the obvious! ...or, even less charitably, of the fatuously trivial. Yes, every event whatsoever, every human action, whenever it happens, does happen at some particular time. Quite right you are! And that includes any purchase or sale from a portfolio,...
by rapporteur
Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 41458

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

Dear shuresm7b1, You said: I believe HomerJ's point has and still is that this looks like market timing. If that's HomerJ's point then he has badly misread Larry (although it might be better for HomerJ to speak to this than you). Larry has pointed out what current CAPE indicates with respect to expe...
by rapporteur
Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 41458

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

Dear FIREchief, I took up the cudgels and made my point - for whatever it's worth or not worth. I see no point in further belabouring it - there's been too much 'proof by repeated assertion' in this thread already :-) Instead let me comment on your: Can we replace the word "criticising" (sic) with "...
by rapporteur
Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international?
Replies: 80
Views: 10825

Re: How much international?

Dear longinvest, I don't actually hold any currency-hedged funds or ETFs per se; instead I hedge currencies separately with OANDA using CFDs (contracts for difference). [USians can't hold CFDs - instead they must use options or futures. I like CFDs because they 'automatically' roll over and minimize...
by rapporteur
Mon Oct 31, 2016 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 41458

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

Dear HomerJ, Based on your most recent post, you DO have market expectations, at least implicitly, one of which is that the worst case going forward will be no worse than the worst US case historically (4% SWR). Possibly realistic, possibly not - but still an estimate of a future worst-case scenario...
by rapporteur
Mon Oct 31, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international?
Replies: 80
Views: 10825

Re: How much international?

Dear Fudgie, In Canada, dividends from non-Canadian companies are taxed at full income rates (only relevant in taxable accounts, of course). Dividends from Canadian companies are taxed using a complicated gross-up and credit scheme which interacts with other income across tax brackets. However, for ...
by rapporteur
Sun Oct 30, 2016 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international?
Replies: 80
Views: 10825

Re: How much international?

I'm at 85% international! You see, I'm Canadian and the US is just another component of an international portfolio. An important component to be sure, but not the end-all and be-all - simply another national market to be considered on its merits. In the equity portion of my portfolio I weight Canada...
by rapporteur
Tue Sep 20, 2016 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF vs. Mutual Fund
Replies: 21
Views: 1982

Re: ETF vs. Mutual Fund

A furriner's perspective: I prefer ETFs! Well, not exactly prefer... As a Canadian, it is virtually *impossible* for me to buy US mutual funds (although I can buy US ETFs to my heart's content). Canadian regulatory agencies take the view that *any* mutual fund company must be registered in Canada (w...
by rapporteur
Fri Sep 16, 2016 11:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM
Replies: 140
Views: 17218

Re: A look at the research and evidence on time-series MOM

Quark asked: Why wouldn't MOM get arbitraged away? I’ll take a stab at answering, but first I’ll suggest there are (at least) two ways a (purely) behavioural factor could be killed: 1) Arbitraged away (i.e., direct confrontation, shorting it into the ground) 2) Loved to death IOW, not just arbitrage...
by rapporteur
Wed Sep 14, 2016 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factor investing"
Replies: 234
Views: 29534

Re: "Factor investing"

Frisco asked: Could someone please elaborate on the correlation between factors? Let’s talk explanatory power rather than predictive power. And, therefore, let’s come at your problem from a slightly different direction, asking instead, “With respect to equity returns, how many *truly independent* fa...
by rapporteur
Wed Sep 14, 2016 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factor investing"
Replies: 234
Views: 29534

Re: "Factor investing"

Dear jalbert, It seems you violently agree with me. As I said, under classic single-factor CAPM (i.e., Sharpe/Lintner CAPM) the *sole* determinant of return on an *expectational* basis (i.e., ex ante) is that single market factor (whether applying to the entire market portfolio or any subset of it i...
by rapporteur
Tue Sep 13, 2016 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factor investing"
Replies: 234
Views: 29534

Re: "Factor investing"

jalbert responded: This is not a correct argument jalbert further added: Apply the same argument to a single stock (maybe Enron?), and you will find the flaw. In my simplicity and ignorance I have been unable to find the alleged flaw in my argument to which you refer. I look forward to your guidance...
by rapporteur
Tue Sep 13, 2016 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factor investing"
Replies: 234
Views: 29534

Re: "Factor investing"

Dear Mr Larimore, There is an ethnic saying (although I forget which ethnic group it originated from) that goes, "May you have enemies worthy of you." Although you are not my enemy - far from it! - I find myself frequently disagreeing with your positions (in part, seldom in total). However, in keepi...
by rapporteur
Tue Sep 13, 2016 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factor investing"
Replies: 234
Views: 29534

Re: "Factor investing"

Dear JoMoney, What you say is absolutely true. Absolutely true, but (necessarily and inevitably) incomplete... First, the map is not the terrain; all models of reality are approximations, and therefore at least partially wrong. Partially wrong but also, hopefully, partially right. And with some util...
by rapporteur
Tue Sep 13, 2016 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Factor investing"
Replies: 234
Views: 29534

Re: "Factor investing"

Mel Lindauer said: Own the market and know that you'll never underperform. Tilt and you MAY outperform but you also MAY also underperform, sometimes for long periods as Larry has correctly pointed out A tad tendentious and misleading! Your statement must be emended to "Own the market and you'll neve...
by rapporteur
Mon Sep 12, 2016 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: projected returns
Replies: 11
Views: 1339

Re: projected returns

As lack_ey posted, there are a number of credible sources of estimates for future returns - keeping in mind Yogi Berra's caution that "It is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future." I would add that in addition to those lack_ey mentioned, I give considerable credence to Star Capi...
by rapporteur
Mon Sep 12, 2016 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Two Different Worlds
Replies: 12
Views: 2202

Re: Two Different Worlds

I somehow managed to post this to the wrong thread. I have now deleted the message and slunk off :-)

Regards,
by rapporteur
Mon Sep 12, 2016 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Article: "Can Pennsylvania confiscate your IRA?"]
Replies: 23
Views: 3847

Re: [Article: "Can Pennsylvania confiscate your IRA?"]

In Canada , 'abandoned' bank accounts pass to the Crown (i.e., the Government) after 10 years of inactivity. More specifically, they pass to the Bank of Canada (roughly equivalent to the US Fed). However, they are held open pending claims from the original owner or any subsequent valid claimant for ...