Search found 175 matches

by Derby
Mon Aug 21, 2023 5:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard wire transfer
Replies: 6
Views: 1382

Re: Vanguard wire transfer

Here is the information you are looking for:
https://support.vanguard.com/triage/mmv/E0190

(When you're in telephone hell and the disembodied voice asks "Help me with something else" say "investments" to get to the wire transfer people. You would think you could say "domestic wire transfer", but...no.)
by Derby
Wed Jul 26, 2023 4:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering limited partnership in syndication
Replies: 12
Views: 586

Re: Considering limited partnership in syndication

If you are interested in this type of investment, I recommend reading The Hands-Off Investor by Brian Burke, https://www.amazon.com/Hands-Off-Invest ... ref=sr_1_1to show you the things you need to consider. Very easy read and very informative.
by Derby
Wed Jul 26, 2023 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Considering limited partnership in syndication
Replies: 12
Views: 586

Re: Considering limited partnership in syndication

While I don't recall the details of the law, but it's probably only for family and friends because if not, it's a security and must be registered with the SEC.

I don't quite understand what the investment actually is, but the promissory note sounds like debt, and the other path sounds like equity -- two very different types of investments with different risks and rewards.

Is there a pitch deck? (usually a powerpoint presentation overview) Or a PPM (private placement memorandum) and OA (operating agreement)? These will describe what you are investing in and what you may possibly receive from your investment.

It's hard to say if this is a good idea without much more information.
by Derby
Tue Jul 25, 2023 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If/when to fly business class? (Length of flight vs. cost)
Replies: 207
Views: 27392

Re: If/when to fly business class? (Length of flight vs. cost)

Do you have something at the destination that is worth the business class seat? Several people in this thread claim that they only fly business class, I wonder how many times they fly a year, who pays the tickets, and what are their purposes for that flight? And what are their annual living expenses? I sense some skepticism in your phraseology. In the last 21 months, I've travelled internationally 10 times for vacation/tourism, all in business class, one on points, the rest paid for by me. I'm retired, with savings > 50x expenses. Like many on this forum, I've lived more on the frugal side, and it was difficult psychologically at first to pay more for the airfare than the rest of the vacation itself. But I'm over that now. I ask myself &qu...
by Derby
Mon Jul 24, 2023 9:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If/when to fly business class? (Length of flight vs. cost)
Replies: 207
Views: 27392

Re: If/when to fly business class? (Length of flight vs. cost)

SeattleLaw wrote: Mon Jul 24, 2023 8:17 pm When would you fly business class?
Any flight over 4 hours.

I won't fly economy anymore. And it's not just about the seat.

You get your own line at check in, you get a nice lounge to sit in, you get to board the plane first and disembark first.There's always room in the overhead compartment. If you check a bag, it comes off the carousel first. On the way home, if you don't check a bag and you have global entry, you're getting into your Lyft while the people in the back of the plane are still on the jetway.

It's worth every penny.
by Derby
Mon Jul 17, 2023 6:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retire @ 51 y.o. w 75% of my salary or 61 y.o. w 100% or something in between
Replies: 38
Views: 4798

Re: Retire @ 51 y.o. w 75% of my salary or 61 y.o. w 100% or something in between

What are your expenses? Do you need the extra money?

How's your health? How long have your closest male relatives lived?

If you knew you would die at 65, when would you retire? How about 70?

All things to go into the decision.
by Derby
Sat Jul 01, 2023 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After retirement question
Replies: 11
Views: 2135

Re: After retirement question

If you leave your company in the year you turn 55 or later, you can make withdrawals from your 401(k) without penalty. You do not have to wait until 59.5.
by Derby
Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Group Travel - Alternatives to Road Scholar?
Replies: 17
Views: 3664

Re: Group Travel - Alternatives to Road Scholar?

I'm a 60-something solo traveler, and I recommend www.Gate1travel.com. I've been on 12 of their tours, and have been pleased with the quality of the guides and accommodations. The age distribution generally is from 30s to 70s. I've also noted that a lot of the time we're staying in the same hotels as Tauck and the high end tours, for significantly less $$$.
by Derby
Wed Apr 07, 2021 5:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cold feet before dumping 25K into crowdfunding real estate?
Replies: 52
Views: 9889

Re: Negative experience with Crowdstreet

The complexity is not just that one receives a K-1, I have multiple investments that send me K-1, but that one has to file individual tax returns in every state based on individual state tax K-1 in which the blended portfolio has a portfolio investment - so far 8 states. If the headache of filing 8 state tax returns was not bad enough, what was indicated to me is that investors should expect the K-1s only by September of the following year for the prior tax year. So get this, one has to file 9 extensions (8 state + 1 federal) and then file the actual returns before September. You should really talk to an experienced CPA. There are certain circumstances in which you may not need to file the extra state returns, especially if you only have l...
by Derby
Tue Apr 06, 2021 9:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Indirect real estate investing
Replies: 3
Views: 679

Re: Indirect real estate investing

There are hundreds, if not thousands, of companies like Ashcroft. I've never invested with them, but from what I've heard, they're not the worst, but not the best either. Two books you might find useful if you are considering investing in RE syndications:

The Hands-off Investor by Brian Burke
Investing in Real Estate Private Equity by Sean Cook
by Derby
Wed Mar 31, 2021 9:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me sort out my retirement please
Replies: 13
Views: 3272

Re: Help me sort out my retirement please

ruralavalon wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 10:49 am I was born in 1945 in a U.S. Navy Dispensary on an island with no civilian population. The nearest town was Avalon on Santa Catalina Island, California, so my place of birth is rural Avalon.
Wow, that's cool! I've scuba dived San Clemente (when the Navy would let us)...I had no idea that people were born there. LOL
by Derby
Fri Mar 19, 2021 7:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Costco Citi Visa annual reward; Executive Member annual reward redemptions
Replies: 49
Views: 13229

Re: Costco Citi Visa annual reward; Executive Member annual reward redemptions

My 91 yo bedridden father had a $200 reward from his Citi Costco Visa. I got bounced back and forth between Citi and Costco until someone finally said

"Yes, you are correct: sorry about your father, but unless he can appear in person, you can't get the $200."
by Derby
Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best Tax Software to Handle a K-1 (1065)?
Replies: 6
Views: 917

Re: Best Tax Software to Handle a K-1 (1065)?

I have a bunch of k-1s every year, Freetaxusa makes it very easy to enter all the data.
by Derby
Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the odds of losing everything in a legit real estate deal/fund?
Replies: 31
Views: 2798

Re: What are the odds of losing everything in a legit real estate deal/fund?

The secrecy may not really be a red flag. If this is a 506(b) offering, the SEC prohibits advertising, and a sponsor might not want the materials disseminated for fear of running afoul of that rule.
by Derby
Tue Mar 16, 2021 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Large capital gains and AMT - CPA worth it or still Turbo Tax?
Replies: 6
Views: 700

Re: Large capital gains and AMT - CPA worth it or still Turbo Tax?

I'm no expert, but I don't think a CPA will be able to do anything to change the outcome. All the tax software handles AMT without much difficulty.
by Derby
Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the odds of losing everything in a legit real estate deal/fund?
Replies: 31
Views: 2798

Re: What are the odds of losing everything in a legit real estate deal/fund?

newbie003 wrote: Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:14 pm Is there any specific info that I can provide, or not really? I know it's really to help me out here, but I'm really just asking in general if these sorts of things every fully go belly up...
In general, 100% principal loss is rare, but not impossible, assuming no fraud is involved.
If you wish to do this kind of investing, I recommend reading The Hands-off Investor by Brian Burke. It will orient you to what to look for.
by Derby
Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the odds of losing everything in a legit real estate deal/fund?
Replies: 31
Views: 2798

Re: What are the odds of losing everything in a legit real estate deal/fund?

Post a link to the pitch deck and the PPM.

But to answer your question, yes, sometimes even the legit ones lose principal. 2008 was a big year for that.
by Derby
Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DLP Capitol
Replies: 37
Views: 4226

Re: DLP Capitol

Your first question should be "How does a real estate HML* Fund fit into my needs and IPS?"

What % of your investible net worth do you want in real estate? Of that, how much in direct ownership, how much in debt, how much in equity, how much in publicly traded REITs?

I have not done a deep dive into DPL, but it seems to be a reasonable choice for an HML fund, if that's what you want. But worth thinking about the big picture first.

*Hard Money Lender
by Derby
Sun Mar 14, 2021 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hiring help for 90yo Mom
Replies: 15
Views: 2060

Re: Hiring help for 90yo Mom

I don't know about other states, but California is filled with landmines when you try to hire an in-home caregiver. For starters, they must be W-2 employees; it is illegal to make them a 1099 contractor.

Also, if you use an agency, make sure you are indemnified by them against and wage & hours claims.

We used a small family agency to avoid the hassle of having an employee. It appears they underpaid the caregiver. Although we were not the employer, there's a law firm in LA that specializes in going after the deeper-pockets families, because CA law is unclear. It's going to be an expensive nightmare for us for several years, at least.
by Derby
Fri Mar 12, 2021 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice to give dad and mom
Replies: 21
Views: 3113

Re: Advice to give dad and mom

They can gift up to the limit from their RMDs. They have to pay taxes on that money anyway, but you won't. If you inherit the IRA, it's taxable to you when you w/d it, but if you inherit the taxable, you get the step up in basis.

But no matter how much they have now, it can disappear really quickly if they need in-home, assisted living, or skilled nursing in 10 or 15 years. (Ask me how I know.)
by Derby
Sat Mar 06, 2021 7:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cosmetic / Plastic surgery - advice please
Replies: 28
Views: 5386

Re: Cosmetic / Plastic surgery - advice please

JPM wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:53 pm There are lots of bad plastic surgery results out there. Even among Hollywood stars who want the best and can afford it. The best plastic results look like you never had any work done at all. Seemingly ageless beautiful stars have probably had really good plastic. Some people may be naturally ageless, but God makes very few ageless beauties. Good surgeons make a lot more of them.
I, personally, would like the name of Jane Fonda's surgeon. :D
by Derby
Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tell me about your experience with CrowdStreet
Replies: 16
Views: 2877

Re: Tell me about your experience with CrowdStreet

CrowdStreet is basically a listing service -- Craigslist (but with a fee to the companies) for accredited investors, if you will. Although they claim to vet their offerings, you cannot rely on that and must do your own due diligence. Thanks all. My inclination is that Crowd Street is a no go for me. The deals there are only on CS because the sponsor can't raise money from other distribution channels so they go to CS and pay for the service. Good syndicate managers don't need CS and they do the deal sourcing for you. Moving on. Also nobody every gives me the actual returns they have made in the past. Thanks. There are some very high quality sponsors to be found on CS. Often they will use CS to expand their investor base, especially if they h...
by Derby
Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best < $100 purchase?
Replies: 299
Views: 56508

Re: Best < $100 purchase?

Car Jump Starter Battery Pack

https://www.amazon.com/LEMSIR-Portable- ... 07M9KSY95/

An absolute game changer. Don't have to wait for AAA, don't have to ask some creepy guy for a jumpstart. Everyone (but especially women) should have one. One use in a dark, rainy, deserted parking lot and it's worth 10x what you paid for it. Can also be used to charge your cell phone in a pinch.
by Derby
Thu Jun 04, 2020 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Amazon Prime Membership Question [Considering to drop membership]
Replies: 136
Views: 15554

Re: Amazon WITHOUT Prime?

montanagirl wrote: Thu Jun 04, 2020 8:39 am If you cancel, do you still get the rest of the year paid for?

Or do they refund part? I paid in January.
They have some kind of prorating algorithm for refunds. My father passed away in March and he had made only 2 or 3 small orders since his prime renewal. We got a refund of $82.
by Derby
Sun May 31, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for Mom's variable annuity.
Replies: 8
Views: 792

Re: Advice for Mom's variable annuity.

I understand that this isn't your question OP, but $5000/month expenses for someone without a car payment, mortgage, or debt and lives frugally seem high. Are there places to save there?
by Derby
Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bay Area Estate/Trust Attorneys: Seeking referrals
Replies: 18
Views: 1352

Re: Bay Area Estate/Trust Attorneys: Seeking referrals

bsteiner wrote: Thu Apr 16, 2020 8:15 pm Where are you? From my limited knowledge of California (I'm on the east coast), I thought the Bay Area was around San Francisco, but South Bay is near Los Angeles.
I've lived in both the No Cal South Bay and the So Cal South Bay. Sometimes you have to specify. :happy
by Derby
Sat Jan 25, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling rental property or look for a next tenant?
Replies: 11
Views: 1278

Re: Selling rental property or look for a next tenant?

You're barely cash flowing as it is, with zero appreciation. How many years of cashflow will a new water heater or furnace or roof set you back?

Plus, you don't seem that enthused about it, and you probably won't get so lucky with tenants next time. I'd sell. If you want to own rentals, you should buy a house just for that reason. The "accidental landlord" houses generally don't work out as well.
by Derby
Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Just retired. Too emotionally attached to hard earned $ to be in market and generate a "paycheck."
Replies: 75
Views: 9014

Re: Just retired. Too emotionally attached to hard earned $ to be in market and generate a "paycheck."

Someone posted this recently on another thread, but maybe you should consider WARM (Wasting Asset Retirement Model.)
https://jlcollinsnh.com/2017/09/09/slee ... ent-model/

Your anxiety about this is palpable.
by Derby
Mon Jan 13, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which Tax Software
Replies: 43
Views: 6693

Re: Which Tax Software

Another upvote for freetaxusa.com. I've been using it for 3 years now with moderate complexity returns (self-employment, rental props, stock sales, multiple K-1s) without any problems. Fed is free, state returns are $6 or 7.
by Derby
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard: "Your Account Needs to be Transitioned"
Replies: 47
Views: 15196

Re: Vanguard: "Your Account Needs to be Transitioned"

I just rolled over a 401K to Vanguard. When I did it on line, they gave me no option to roll it over into my current MF account SEP-IRA, instead, it automatically created a brokerage account for the rollover. When I called VG to ask about whether I could roll my 401K to the existing SEP-IRA, the guy on the phone basically hemmed and hawed and could not give me a simple yes or no answer.

So I got a check from my custodian (made out to VG, not me), and mailed it to VG with instructions and the account number to deposit to my IRA.

And it worked just fine. Now I have an empty IRA Rollover Brokerage Account, which will sit there vacant for eternity.
by Derby
Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Jumper cables
Replies: 83
Views: 7217

Re: Jumper cables

I second buying the portable battery pack. Cables are only good if there's another car around. If you use it only once, it will be the best $50 you've ever spent in your life. Ask me how I know.
by Derby
Tue Dec 17, 2019 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "Safer" places for Spanish immersion experience?
Replies: 84
Views: 9254

Re: "Safer" places for Spanish immersion experience?

Antigua, Guatemala is beautiful and has dozens of Spanish schools, but I recommend Quetzaltenango, about 4 hours away by bus in the mountains. Quaint quiet town, and I never felt unsafe for a second. I chose it over Antigua especially because there were fewer English speaking tourists. And muy barato! (cheap). Four hours of private (1-on-1) lessons 5 days a week for 4 weeks, and a room in a boarding house for under $800, total for the month.
by Derby
Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need a transaction free credit card for Ireland?
Replies: 70
Views: 4256

Re: Do I need a transaction free credit card for Ireland?

Shallowpockets wrote: Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:59 pm Anyone paying $100 k for a vacation isn't likely to have the need to save on the transaction cost. I cannot think of any single vacation that costs that amount (two people to the top of Everest?)
This one looks nice. Only $135,000 per person. :mrgreen:
https://www.tcsworldtravel.com/luxury-j ... 20/january
by Derby
Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Has any retiree taken classes at 4-year college - for interest - e.g. Spanish
Replies: 108
Views: 15071

Re: Has any retiree taken classes at 4-year college - for interest - e.g. Spanish

I would look into finding professors on iTalki.com. You sound like you might be better served by taking a combination of conversational classes (to improve fluency) and classes directed at people wanting to take the DELE exams (to get the gramatical rigor that you're seeking.)
by Derby
Mon Mar 04, 2019 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Legally Mine asset protection, family limited partnerships
Replies: 6
Views: 1350

Re: Legally Mine asset protection, family limited partnerships

Have adequate insurance and save the $5000. The odds of a malpractice attorney going after personal assets is about zero. I've never heard of a case and I've never heard of anyone who's ever heard of a case.
by Derby
Mon Mar 04, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me pick a fund for my HSA in California
Replies: 62
Views: 9249

Re: Help me pick a fund for my HSA in California

Jay, Fidelity has a auto-roll service that automatically repurchases a Treasury bill/note at auction that's similar to the one that just matured. For example, let's say I want to setup a rolling ladder of 6 month T-bills: 1. Check out the auction schedule and yield curve on the U.S. Treasury site: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/quarterly-refunding/Documents/auctions.pdf https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield 2. Let's say I choose to purchase the 26-week Treasury with an Auction Date of Nov 26 . Between the announcement date of Nov 21 and the auction date of Nov 26, I can go to the fixed income section of Fidelity and place an order (in increments ...
by Derby
Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying a house as a medical student
Replies: 23
Views: 1678

Re: Buying a house as a medical student

Before I even clicked, I let out a silent scream: Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. :shock: As a 1st yr, I can almost guarantee that whatever specialty you think you'll go into...you won't. There's a high probability you will end up doing something somewhere you never dreamed of. The last thing you need is to be an accidental landlord. WhiteCoatInvestor can't link to his website, but I will: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/6-reasons-we-lost-money-on-our-first-rental-property/ Or go to his forums and search for "accidental landlord"! I know at this point it seems like piling on, but our intentions are good. RENT (Full disclosure: I bought a condo as a 1st year and was able to sell it 4 years later at a profit, but it was SHEER ...
by Derby
Mon Feb 11, 2019 12:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wasting Electricity for Fun and Profit
Replies: 58
Views: 6483

Re: Wasting Electricity for Fun and Profit

I'm surprised no one's mentioned a setting up a special grow "farm" in the basement. 8-)
by Derby
Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did you investigate your partner's financial background before committing?
Replies: 99
Views: 7915

Re: Did you investigate your partner's financial background before committing?

RickBoglehead wrote: Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:22 pm Hire a private investigator?

Good luck on your relationships...

I never contemplated that. Yes, you have discussions, but if you have to investigate your partner then you're lacking trust in the relationship and commitment should not be happening. Just my opinion.
Absolutely right. Because in the history of all humankind, no one has ever been fooled or misled by a romantic partner. :oops:
by Derby
Sun Feb 10, 2019 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Investing Ability Changes With Age --blog post
Replies: 33
Views: 3427

How Investing Ability Changes With Age --blog post

https://www.silverlightinvest.com/blog/ ... hanges-age

Short and interesting:
However, “older investors have worse investment skill, where the skill deteriorates sharply around the age of 70.” In fact, “older investors earn about 3-5% lower annual return on a risk-adjusted return basis.”
And the take-away conclusion:
If there is an "investing prime," it appears to be between the ages of 32 and 56.
EEK, I'm over the hill already?! :shock:
by Derby
Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying house with son [and his girlfriend]
Replies: 169
Views: 16316

Re: Buying house with son [and his girlfriend]

No one has said it's a criminal act. What people are reacting to is that you have A LOT of expectations around this "help"/"gift". You've said it's: -early inheritance and money you don't need BUT you want to retain upside/control via ownership -payment for future lodging and eldercare -equity (and upside) in the home without for all the carrying costs -for son, Gf and future grandkids BUT protected from GF/DIL The same dollars can't meet all these expectations and someone will be disappointed to say the least. +1, also: There's this: We live 5 hrs away and have no intention of moving in but we are simply tired of staying in hotels. But then this: ...the need to take care of grandchildren and eventually grandparents is ...
by Derby
Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is $53 too much for life insurance for me and my wife?
Replies: 36
Views: 3331

Re: Is $53 too much for life insurance for me and my wife?

Brings up a question of at what asset level would one feel comfortable with dropping disability insurance? Assuming low risk office job. There are all kinds of ranges to disability so hard to answer question. I guess I don’t feel like the risk is super high. Don’t actually think we have any. First part is easy. You can drop disability insurance when you can survive at the level you want without your work income. Your second paragraph makes me shudder. The risk of your house burning down is pretty low, but I bet you have homeowner's insurance. Your office job is low risk, but what about that guy on his cellphone on the freeway on your drive home? What if you trip on a curb and get bilateral wrist fractures? You don't get disability insuranc...
by Derby
Tue Feb 05, 2019 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto Exchange goes bankrupt after owner dies with only password
Replies: 111
Views: 18138

Re: Crypto Exchange goes bankrupt after owner dies with only password

Iorek wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 10:05 pm I saw someone on twitter refer to cryptocurrency as dunning-krugerrands.
This made me *snortlaugh* out loud.
by Derby
Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing in a rental property - first time investor
Replies: 21
Views: 2500

Re: Investing in a rental property - first time investor

Head over to biggerpockets.com and post ALL your data. You'll get at least some good advice.

Generally speaking, expenses will be about 40-50% of rent NOT including your mortgage payment. And don't forget to include vacancy and capital expenditures in your expenses. Are you sure it will cash flow like you think? And if you don't care about cash flow, that must mean you think it will appreciate. Is that a good assumption?