Search found 341 matches

by privatefarmer
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 168
Views: 12120

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Should read: Stay away from AQR if you don't understand or wish to invest in a factor based strategy. Growth has outperformed value over the past few years, propelled in large part by FANG megacap names. We saw similar outperformance of growth vs value during the tech bubble. Over long time horizon...
by privatefarmer
Mon Nov 05, 2018 3:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk-based factor explanations: How can factors be non-diversifiable risk?
Replies: 8
Views: 776

Re: Risk-based factor explanations: How can factors be non-diversifiable risk?

So it seems that for risk-based explanations to fly, we need the factor to have some sort of uncomparable risk vs the market? E.g. a two-dimensional risk measure where some investors prefer a risk of (2,3) and some prefer (3,2), but neither risk is strictly better than the other? That's basically c...
by privatefarmer
Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6196

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

I believe DFA is totally passive. They define a segment of the market with specific rules: size by market cap and price by book to market (I believe they still only use one metric because they believe it is the most stable one). They access the SV segment with a passive rules based market cap weigh...
by privatefarmer
Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6196

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

privatefarmer wrote: It seems like they keep "fine tuning" it/throwing in new factors ie profitability/liquidity etc etc, doesn't seem as passive as I once thought... would love some input from anyone w/ more insight... It seems to me that you've got plenty of insight yourself, private farmer. Fact...
by privatefarmer
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6196

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

The S&P500 has added 16 companies this year, and 26 in 2017. Are Standard and Poor's active managers? yeah, but the cost is basically zero. I prefer TSM to S/P 500, but if you can own 80% of the market w/ basically zero cost then I suppose that's "good enough". I think we all understand, it's not a...
by privatefarmer
Sun Oct 21, 2018 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6196

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

privatefarmer wrote: It seems like they keep "fine tuning" it/throwing in new factors ie profitability/liquidity etc etc, doesn't seem as passive as I once thought... would love some input from anyone w/ more insight... It seems to me that you've got plenty of insight yourself, private farmer. Fact...
by privatefarmer
Sat Oct 20, 2018 2:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6196

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

My biggest concern is that over time they keep adding new "factors" based on backtested data... it seems like if small/value were true risk premiums that could be extracted they wouldn't need to add all these newer factors... They hire PhDs who spend their time doing research. If a factor shows an ...
by privatefarmer
Sat Oct 20, 2018 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6196

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

My biggest concern is that over time they keep adding new "factors" based on backtested data... it seems like if small/value were true risk premiums that could be extracted they wouldn't need to add all these newer factors...
by privatefarmer
Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6196

DFA small value... acitve management?

from the prospectus on DFAs small value fund DFSVX : "The Advisor may adjust the representation in the U.S. Small Cap Value Portfolio of an eligible company, or exclude a company, after considering such factors as free float, momentum, trading strategies, liquidity, value, profitability, and other f...
by privatefarmer
Tue Sep 25, 2018 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets
Replies: 31
Views: 2377

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets

[/quote] I think many people investing in smart beta strongly expect these factors to always be positive. [/quote] I would hope not. ALWAYS be positive? That would be a naive way of looking at it. No intelligent investor expects stocks to always beat bonds. No smart beta investor, who knows what the...
by privatefarmer
Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?
Replies: 72
Views: 3158

Re: Isn't cap weighting less diversified than equal weighting?

I think about it this way: if equal weighting was strictly better than market-cap weighting, then what would rational people do? They would equal weight. But this means, relative to market size, more money is flowing into the smaller companies. The result is that the market share of smaller compani...
by privatefarmer
Tue Sep 11, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do backtesting tools, such as Portfolio Visualizer, reflect currency risk?
Replies: 4
Views: 276

Re: Do backtesting tools, such as Portfolio Visualizer, reflect currency risk?

wouldn't this be reflected in the rate of inflation? if the dollar weakens, inflation should rise, and that is reflected in PV
by privatefarmer
Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early retirement and withdrawal strategy for retirement accounts
Replies: 26
Views: 3103

Re: Early retirement and withdrawal strategy for retirement accounts

also not sure what industry you're in but are you 100% confident you're going to completely retire vs just going part-time? makes a HUGE difference when planning withdrawal strategies... I feel I have a case of the "golden handcuffs" as job pays well and the benefits of staying at least part-time ar...
by privatefarmer
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early retirement and withdrawal strategy for retirement accounts
Replies: 26
Views: 3103

Re: Early retirement and withdrawal strategy for retirement accounts

its awesome to see others who are in same situation as me... researching things like 72t withdrawals and how much of my roth is contribution vs earnings etc... I have a ? of my own : I had a roth 401k that was rolled into my roth IRA. after it was rolled into my roth IRA, does the ENTIRE balance now...
by privatefarmer
Thu Aug 16, 2018 3:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 105853

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Has INTNL under performed? I wouldn’t know. Honestly. I don’t pay attention. Maybe once a year or so I’ll check my allocation and rebalance if needed. I know it’s said time and time again and is boring advice. But it works. The fact is, the markets are efficient. We have no way of knowing which coun...
by privatefarmer
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 16079

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

technically, if you have a mortgage and own stocks you are using leverage to own those stocks... you're using leverage to own the home AND using leverage to own stocks - could you not sell the stocks to pay of the mortgage? a 30 yr, tax deductible, low-interest fixed rate mortgage is far better than...
by privatefarmer
Sun Jul 08, 2018 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 1338
Views: 224447

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

does anyone here hold DFA funds (without an advisor)?? I have some funds that are no longer being managed by an advisor and would love to get a transfer bonus however I cannot find a brokerage that will accept the transfer of DFA funds w/o an advisor attached...
by privatefarmer
Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: yield curve inversion
Replies: 48
Views: 5087

yield curve inversion

wondering what is everyone's thoughts on "yield curve inversion"? Heard of the concept via Wes Moss's radio show, who I admit is not exactly a financial guru but rather an entertainer who mostly spreads garbage about the financial markets. However, he notes that typically long-term gov. bonds yield ...
by privatefarmer
Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies
Replies: 71
Views: 7851

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies

I agree with the article's conclusion that so far, results have supported his book's contention that: 1) passive beats active; and 2) tilting towards size and/or value is superior to Total Stock Market. What I'm unclear about in his article is that he also pushes the case that using DFA funds to ti...
by privatefarmer
Sat Jun 16, 2018 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2891

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

well, think more broadly. if stocks outperform bonds over the long-haul, and there are investors who "win" by tilting more towards equities and away from bonds, who are the "losers"? accepting a lower return for less volatility is not "losing", it is making a choice. like buying life insurance. you'...
by privatefarmer
Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 134
Views: 12704

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

what really erks me is that those who would follow DRs investing advice are novices and don't know any better. He can spout off garbage about "average" returns completely ignoring CAGR and 99% of the population wouldn't know the difference. He can spout off garbage about the track records of the gro...
by privatefarmer
Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule
Replies: 184
Views: 26246

Re: Don’t cheat yourself with the 4% rule

The frightening part is if you read that article on Yahoo and then read the comments people make regarding the article. +100000!!! If anyone needs a good laugh or just wants to feel good about themself, read the comments section... just goes to show how much I’ve learned from bogleheads... the gene...
by privatefarmer
Sun Jun 03, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value
Replies: 140
Views: 17313

Re: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value

JustinR post What's a good book or reading about tilting to factors, especially scv (also reit and em)? I think the most readable author on the topic is Larry Swedroe. He has written many internet articles on the subject but his best book is, "Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing: The Way ...
by privatefarmer
Wed May 23, 2018 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect
Replies: 84
Views: 7309

Re: Fact, Fiction, and the Size Effect

all I know is, if you compare small value vs the total market over the last 48 years, according to portfoliovisualizer, small value has killed it. I looked at '72-81, '82-91, '92-'01, '02-'11, and '12-present and small value beat total market in every single case except '12-present they are tied. Ov...
by privatefarmer
Mon May 21, 2018 1:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Edelman & Financial Engines merging
Replies: 36
Views: 4511

Re: Edelman & Financial Engines merging

One thing I don't understand about this forum - bash doctors (and/or their fees) and their brethren are up in arms against you; but bash a financial guy and his rivals pounce right on. Why don't we see similar behavior from doctors? In other words, if someone complains about paying an arm and a leg...
by privatefarmer
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets tilt
Replies: 37
Views: 4448

Re: Emerging markets tilt

I'm curious to hear from people who are tilting towards EM in the current enviroment: How big is your tilt? What's your rationale? What's your prognosis for the future? I know questions like these have been asked before, but people's opinions on this stuff changes depending on which way the wind is...
by privatefarmer
Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets tilt
Replies: 37
Views: 4448

Re: Emerging markets tilt

[quote=randomizer post_id=3875619 time=1523465743 user_id=54916] I'm curious to hear from people who are tilting towards EM in the current enviroment: [list][*]How big is your tilt? [*]What's your rationale? [*]What's your prognosis for the future? [/list] I know questions like these have been asked...
by privatefarmer
Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor Investing - A convincing article
Replies: 67
Views: 6994

Re: Factor Investing - I convincing article

5 years of underperformance! I'm convinced. :oops: Or perhaps, I'll stick with what has overperformed for me for more than 20 years. We do not live forever. Using decades to try to reach a conclusion is great for the academic world, but in the life span of an investor is a very long time. But that ...
by privatefarmer
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses
Replies: 1338
Views: 224447

Re: The Final, Definitive Thread on Brokerage Transfer Bonuses

does anyone know of any brokerage firms that will accept a transfer of DFA funds? I have DFA funds, no longer have an advisor, and would like to get me some transfer bonuses... but every time I've tried to transfer out from fidelity I have not been able to transfer the DFA funds...
by privatefarmer
Sat Apr 07, 2018 2:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value premium harvestable?
Replies: 39
Views: 2918

Re: Value premium harvestable?

has there been a value premium over the last 25 years? according to portfoliovisualizer.com, large-value vs large-growth from '93 to present has resulted in nearly identical CAGR (which matches up w/ what we've seen with the two vanguard funds). however, if you go back to 1972 to present, there has ...
by privatefarmer
Wed Mar 21, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rent & Invest vs Mortgage for mid-30's saver
Replies: 25
Views: 3116

Re: Rent & Invest vs Mortgage for mid-30's saver

NYT has a good calculator on this. When determining cost of ownership remember to subtract any appreciation you expect from the cost. For example, if you own a 500k house and expect it to keep pace with inflation, and appreciate by 3%/year, which is reasonable, you would SUBTRACT $15k/year from the ...
by privatefarmer
Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring Early
Replies: 22
Views: 6901

Re: Retiring Early

you didn't include the value of your home. I am not saying you should do a cash-out refi, per say, but you should at least consider the value of it. Worst case, you could always sell it and live in a small apartment if you needed more cash. I would think for the vast majority of people, 2Mil w/ a pa...
by privatefarmer
Sun Feb 25, 2018 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 8969

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

OP: 1) if you haven't already, grab Bogleheads Guide to Investing. It has a good chapter on Insurance. You insure to protect what you can't lose. As for investment, using asset allocation as a means to get insurance is a bad planning. 2) $500 of EF is ridiculously small. Any big item expenses (hous...
by privatefarmer
Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 8969

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

What makes you think that? for me it comes down to risk/reward. since the beginning of 2008 until now, the S&P500 has almost tripled in value. because all of my funds were fully invested in the market, i already have 3 emergency funds instead of 1. as of right now the market would have to crash 67%...
by privatefarmer
Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 8969

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

in case there was any doubt, my comment about HELOC and credit cards was a joke. there are many comments about the ability to stay the course in a recession. i'm pretty confident in myself that i can do it, but of course we won't know for sure until the next crash. nonetheless, you all cannot be se...
by privatefarmer
Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 8969

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

Wait until you also get a lay off notice, stock market is down by a large percentage, it might take you years to find full employment, or maybe never. Your emergency fund is also gone and you have to pay COBRA or the like for health insurance. I understand this point of view. However, wouldn't you ...
by privatefarmer
Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 8969

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

3) If you are unemployed and the stock market drop by 50%, how long can you last with that $500? 1) i don't believe in emergency funds because holding cash is losing money 3) obviously not very long. but there are other things we have not discussed. we have not talked about unemployment benefits. n...
by privatefarmer
Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 8969

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

Wait until you also get a lay off notice, stock market is down by a large percentage, it might take you years to find full employment, or maybe never. Your emergency fund is also gone and you have to pay COBRA or the like for health insurance. I understand this point of view. However, wouldn't you ...
by privatefarmer
Sat Feb 24, 2018 3:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 81
Views: 13497

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Over the next few months we should start seeing more posts about people overweighting EM again ;) I'm still seeing a lot of "Do I need international stocks" and "USA!, USA!" type posts, so I think we're still a few years away from that being outweighed by the "How about I overweight EM" posts. When...
by privatefarmer
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar's SWR study
Replies: 44
Views: 4116

Re: Morningstar's SWR study

excuse my ramblings, but I've been giving this SWR/retirement problem a LOT of thought over the last few years. 1) at my age/BMI/smoking status etc etc my expected lifespan is ~75 years. I'm 34 now so obviously this number likely will increase as I get older and I have to also plan for my wife howev...
by privatefarmer
Tue Feb 13, 2018 6:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR — Can You Include Real Estate as Part of Your Portfolio
Replies: 24
Views: 1964

Re: SWR — Can You Include Real Estate as Part of Your Portfolio

what about refinancing and taking the equity out? I don't see why you wouldn't count that. Although you'd have a mortgage payment so your monthly income needs would go up. I never understood why people want to have a paid off house when they die, unless they plan to give it to their kids. Why not le...
by privatefarmer
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: roth 401k --> roth IRA tax question
Replies: 3
Views: 309

Re: roth 401k --> roth IRA tax question

Earnings and contributions retain their status when you roll a Roth 401(k) to a Roth IRA. ... Thanks! So my next question is, does the IRS keep track of how much in contributions were made to a roth 401k many years ago or is this something that I am going to have to furnish documentation for? thanks
by privatefarmer
Sun Feb 11, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: roth 401k --> roth IRA tax question
Replies: 3
Views: 309

roth 401k --> roth IRA tax question

If I roll over 100k from a roth 401k --> roth IRA, and 20k of that is earnings (80k is my contributions), after it has been converted to a roth IRA is it ALL considered "contributions"? If I wanted to withdrawal the 100k from the roth IRA before age 59 1/2, 5 years after the conversion, would I be a...
by privatefarmer
Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: leveraged Investing , Account Margining.. And the SEC
Replies: 9
Views: 809

Re: leveraged Investing , Account Margining.. And the SEC

buy and hold. buy and hold. none of this matters if you simply buy and hold.
by privatefarmer
Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 138
Views: 8969

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

1) what's the max amount you are willing to (temporarily) lose as a percentage?

2) expect stocks to fall by 50-60% in the worst drawdowns. Use that to determine how much stocks you can own.

I personally am 100% stocks.
by privatefarmer
Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you're really rich you're probably not an index-fundi Boglehead
Replies: 61
Views: 12147

Re: If you're really rich you're probably not an index-fundi Boglehead

The chart is mostly true regardless of how the readers here like it or or. If you are uber rich, you hold a lot of business assets and perhaps have your own company or a significant interest in one. As I’ve said before, to get rich you need stocks. To be filthy rich, you need to have your own busin...
by privatefarmer
Sun Jan 28, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you're really rich you're probably not an index-fundi Boglehead
Replies: 61
Views: 12147

Re: If you're really rich you're probably not an index-fundi Boglehead

I’m not “really rich”, but I’m in my low 30s and on pace to be “really rich” by my mid 40s and that’s all due to my index funds.
by privatefarmer
Sun Jan 28, 2018 1:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?
Replies: 11
Views: 1014

Re: High volatility/returns (SC,EM) for young investors ?

What is the pro/cons of this idea/strategy? Being young is a double edged sword. You do have more time to make up any loses but if you lose a chunk of money that would be money that could have been invested for many decades. One way to look at your investments is that the first dollar you save toda...
by privatefarmer
Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 113
Views: 9831

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

I tilt to small value domestically, and small blend internationally due to lack of access to Int'l small value. I do so not because I want to kill the market, but because it allows me to carry a 40% treasury bond allocation and maintain my same *expected* return as though I had an asset allocation ...