Search found 459 matches

by Alchemist
Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 320
Views: 15649

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

Thanks for the detailed answer. 2 followup questions: 1. European countries have a lot of immigration. So they are not really running out of WAP. Those WAP projections include immigration . Europe's WAP is contracting at a slower rate than Japan and China's thanks to immigration. But it is not enou...
by Alchemist
Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 320
Views: 15649

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

I still haven't got the answer why exUS performed so poorly in the last 15 years. Not poorly compared to the US, but poorly in general. The returns were clearly lower than expected. What was the cause? Demographics. Most of the developed world is following Japan's example set in the 1990's. When yo...
by Alchemist
Sat Jun 27, 2020 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asymmetric risk in the Roth vs Traditional question
Replies: 280
Views: 11155

Re: Asymmetric risk in the Roth vs Traditional question

There will never be agreement on this issue because the 'right' answer varies case to case based on very personal circumstances. There is also a large middle area where the answer either doesn't matter or is unknowable. My personal circumstances heavily favor the Roth option (career military officer...
by Alchemist
Sat Jun 13, 2020 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%
Replies: 120
Views: 11546

Re: Vanguard projects 10 year returns: TSM 6.5% Int'l 9.5%

International won't outperform, until it does. The U.S will continue to beat international until it doesnt. History shows us both statements are true, with both U.S and international under performing each other for often decades at times. Hopefully for the U.S only folks, the current out-performanc...
by Alchemist
Sun Jun 07, 2020 7:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All in S&P 500 & Ride the tide
Replies: 20
Views: 2340

Re: All in S&P 500 & Ride the tide

I do something extremely similar. You will attract some criticism for this approach as it runs counter to the more popular three fund portfolio, but you are far from alone. Below is a link to a thread from 2016 that shows there are a number of BH's that follow the "Buffet Portfolio". https://www.bog...
by Alchemist
Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60 World Stock Markets
Replies: 153
Views: 12754

Re: Investing in International Stocks

The reverse is also true. Investors can see a positive return without the market cap increases. Any time a company returns cash to shareholders, e.g. pays a dividend or buys back stock, the investor sees a positive return but the market cap does not increase. In fact, according to all the people th...
by Alchemist
Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60 World Stock Markets
Replies: 153
Views: 12754

Re: Investing in International Stocks

Your point is well-taken and absolutely worthy of acknowledgement, but does not necessarily invalidate the jibantik’s claim. How significant Is the contribution of what you describe to this type of data - Does it explain 5%, 50%, or 95% of what we are looking at? Is it any easier to predict? If the...
by Alchemist
Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?
Replies: 238
Views: 20972

Re: Markets back near all time highs - how are you feeling and path forward ?

sorry for the dumb questions: - Why look at ttm PE and not current/absolute PE? - Where can I find/track current PE stats for TSM or S&P500? That is actually a great question. Robert Shiller maintains a website that tracks current P/E of the S&P 500 as well as a few other metrics include CAPE10: ht...
by Alchemist
Sun Jun 07, 2020 2:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60 World Stock Markets
Replies: 153
Views: 12754

Re: Investing in International Stocks

You are basically claiming you can predict the chart below into the future. https://i.imgur.com/Bt45BLa.jpg This comes up a lot and it needs to be corrected each time. A national stock market can increase in size without providing positive return to share holders. New companies can issue shares tha...
by Alchemist
Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle
Replies: 54
Views: 2995

Re: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle

Looking forward, if concerned, a couple of actions that international index investors might take to avoid portfolio exposure to China would include: 1) investing only in developed market indexes, and/or 2) investing in emerging market bond funds (which have little China exposure) as a risk asset in...
by Alchemist
Mon Jun 01, 2020 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economy and The Markets
Replies: 36
Views: 2259

Re: Economy and The Markets

If it’s already pricing that in could it be likely that if we do have that kind of recovery we will still move sideways for the next year or so? I would expect that to be likely. Though an end result of 'sideways' could be quite bumpy depending on how smooth or chaotic the vaccine rollout is. I nei...
by Alchemist
Sun May 31, 2020 5:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economy and The Markets
Replies: 36
Views: 2259

Re: Economy and The Markets

I feel like this is a tale of two stories and eventually something has to give. Well over 40 million unemployed. SP 500 at around 3,000. This doesn’t seem right, even being forward looking there is not over 40 million jobs coming back in the next 6 months. Even if half of those jobs come back there...
by Alchemist
Sun May 31, 2020 4:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman-Sachs Compares Bitcoin to the Tulip Bubble
Replies: 58
Views: 3860

Re: Goldman-Sachs Compares Bitcoin to the Tulip Bubble

Archive copy if you hit a Bloomberg block... http://archive.is/M7Ang And what I believe is the slideshow / report being talked about: https://resources.goldman.com/content/dam/pwm/direct-links/isg-calls/client_call_materials_27May20.pdf?sa=n&rd=n All discussion about bitcoin aside, I found the GS s...
by Alchemist
Tue May 26, 2020 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 6415
Views: 542286

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I just looked at a few of the thousands of posts here. Is this the BH day trading thread? Are you all watching and cheering on the stock market because you are taking some action? Are you going to watch it daily until retirement or death just because you're interested? If you've set your AA and are...
by Alchemist
Sun May 24, 2020 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9201

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Investing in China carries unique risks. Not of volatility, but of complete loss for a foreign investor. Allegedly that’s priced in. Down to the penny, in fact. If anyone really believes that, I've got some Luckin coffee gift certificates and an all inclusive Xinjiang resort trip to sell them.
by Alchemist
Sun May 24, 2020 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 9201

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Hmmm... Solar city/Tesla comes to mind. 🤔 It is popular to hate on Tesla, but its shareholders have been richly rewarded. Tesla is ironically in the best position to whether the current crisis vs the traditional carmakers. But I digress... Not hedgefundie, but i share much of his enthusiasm for Chi...
by Alchemist
Sat May 23, 2020 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy
Replies: 146
Views: 7304

Re: The Taleb Asness 'debate' in the light of Bogleheads philosophy

This thread seems to have taken to bashing Taleb, but his beef was directed at Fama, and AQR's Cliff Asness -who is also a pompous loud-mouth billionaire hedge-fund guy. We can talk about Taleb's active style failures, but Cliff Asness's and the other "factor" style advocates are certainly worthy o...
by Alchemist
Fri May 22, 2020 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4630

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

Perhaps both are to some degree. Bond investors are preparing for a stagnant economic future with possible negative rates while stock investors are figuring that even if inflation and economic growth remain low for decades, stocks will still outperform bonds long term. Currently the S&P 500 yields ...
by Alchemist
Sun May 17, 2020 5:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 41983

Re: Why international?

Was Japan the canary in the coalmine for the demographic apocalypse, or was it a unique case of an island nation with a unique history? Was it the almost-made-it tech giant of the late 1900s that floundered? Was it the place that accepted little immigration, and thus has a dwindling population? Wer...
by Alchemist
Sun May 17, 2020 2:18 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 41983

Re: Why international?

Touche, you caught me. I added my own opinion to the mix. I don't act on them, but I do think valuations matter and that the market becomes irrational at times. That's not the same, though, as saying the market is perpetually irrational in the same way. Practically speaking: I think the market gets...
by Alchemist
Sat May 16, 2020 11:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 41983

Re: Why international?

I think we're seeing right now how the US is fumbling an international crisis. Mainly this is a subject for another thread, but: I do not believe the US's economic position going in gives it much advantage, if any; time will tell. The tech sector being strong here helps, though. The value of the do...
by Alchemist
Sat May 16, 2020 4:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 41983

Re: Why international?

Well, again, I can't go into detail per forum rules, but if you don't see recent and extreme risks to the US economy in light of current events I can't go into because they're political in nature, I don't really know what to tell you. I'll give you a hint at what it's not: war. Of course, I don't r...
by Alchemist
Fri May 15, 2020 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9674

Re: International market recovery

Okay, but what is being said in many of these posts, including yours, is both that and that US Equity will have higher returns. So the claims seem to be that US stocks will continue to feature both less risk and higher returns. BTW, part of Scandinavia (Sweden) has, so far, a worse covid-19 death r...
by Alchemist
Fri May 15, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 41983

Re: Why international?

The United States is not just another country in the global market place. It has unique advantages that make it less likely to suffer catastrophic economic events, better able to handle them if they do, and in a significant geographic/demographic advantage to other developed markets. I always come ...
by Alchemist
Wed May 13, 2020 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63825

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Undoubtedly a few years from now many alleged experts will say how obvious the market reactions were during the great 2020 bear market. But right now all we can feel is the dread of certain uncertainty. Personally I think the market will crash again when everyone truly realizes how long this crisis ...
by Alchemist
Wed May 13, 2020 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9674

Re: International market recovery

Any strong thoughts about recovery of or long-term effects on international markets vs. US after this event-driven bear market? ...... I've reviewed a number of articles and interesting threads on this topic, but all were penned prior to this unprecedented (at least since 1918) event. Wondering if ...
by Alchemist
Sun May 10, 2020 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for alternative to Vanguard
Replies: 107
Views: 7135

Re: Looking for alternative to Vanguard

The bolded part is absolutely worth hammering home here about Fidelity's 2FA reset process. In order to enroll with the Symantic VIP 2FA on your Fidelity account, voice verification enrollment is mandatory . That is why you can reset it with a phone call, because your second factor is now your voic...
by Alchemist
Sun May 10, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looking for alternative to Vanguard
Replies: 107
Views: 7135

Re: Looking for alternative to Vanguard

I looked at some others like Fidelity and I don't really like their options. They require Symantec VIP for 2FA (much rather use traditional tokens like Authy). Saw reports of various companies that use Symantec VIP that just allow you to call to reset your account in case you lost the device the Sy...
by Alchemist
Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Behind the Long-term Decline in Interest Rates?
Replies: 41
Views: 2934

Re: What's Behind the Long-term Decline in Interest Rates?

The Baby Boom lasted until the spring of 1964. Usually for consistency of cohort it is taken as 1945-1965. There is a phasing issue - the US had begun to demobilize before the end of WW2 (but after VE Day) whilst still gearing up for the invasion of Japan. The other Allied powers took longer to dem...
by Alchemist
Mon Apr 27, 2020 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Behind the Long-term Decline in Interest Rates?
Replies: 41
Views: 2934

Re: What's Behind the Long-term Decline in Interest Rates?

To expect real interest rates to rise back to historical averages anytime soon, one needs to expect a reversal in these long-term secular economic and demographic trends. While a reversal is possible, it would hard to bet on it, in my view. A reversal of overall trends is not likely, but there some...
by Alchemist
Sun Apr 26, 2020 4:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing
Replies: 290
Views: 12705

Re: The Bottom Line on Factor Investing

The lack of a 'why'. Some Factor proponents say it is a risk-based premium, some say behavior, and others still that it is some combination of the two. This lack of a real explanation for the expected premium makes it abundantly clear that the only real answer is "because it did great over the time ...
by Alchemist
Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 41983

Re: Why international?

Is the international market that inefficient that it's constantly overvalued? There is no 'international market'. There is no Global Stock Exchange where we can all buy Samsung, Honda, Volkswagen, and Siemens. There are dozens of individual national market s . Investing in an international index fu...
by Alchemist
Thu Apr 23, 2020 6:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020
Replies: 151
Views: 6339

Re: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020

This is mostly the reason. Correct benchmark is not VTI. It's mid cap and small cap indexes and they are also down around 30%. When VFMF launched it was supposed to be a core equity holding. The multi-factor approach was billed as reducing risk compared with something like VTI. Moving the goal post...
by Alchemist
Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020
Replies: 151
Views: 6339

Re: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020

Who said the factors win every year, let alone every quarter? I think most these funds get a pass and acted as advertised, especially the value fund since value has been hit very hard by the current crisis. But there is one fund that is without excuse, VFMF. The whole point of that fund was to 'div...
by Alchemist
Wed Apr 22, 2020 4:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16625

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

But last 10 and last 20 years US Small Cap and International Small Cap Value both outperformed US TSM. What am I not seeing here? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&in...
by Alchemist
Sun Apr 19, 2020 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Reward of Long Term v Intermediate Treasuries at current rates?
Replies: 155
Views: 8375

Re: Risk Reward of Long Term v Intermediate Treasuries at current rates?

Yes, you will have $122 in nominal dollars from the LTT if rates are unchanged. However, at you stated inflation is now 3%, so perhaps the LTT is at now at 4 or 5%. Each year, the LTT treasury is going to be reinvesting 1% into new bonds that yield 4% (or whatever the market decides the rate should...
by Alchemist
Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1118
Views: 113110

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

This is true, without a doubt. But there are two other important takeaways: 1) You could have said the same thing about a 5% SWR in 1965, and it wouldn't have taken very long to be proven wrong. We should not be complacent merely because something has worked in the past: this is the very embodiment...
by Alchemist
Fri Apr 17, 2020 3:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1118
Views: 113110

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

The most important take away which we already know from many SWR studies: a 100% U.S. portfolio with some mix of bonds thrown in and a 4% SWR will survive just about anything that has happened in stock history thus far, and in many cases would have handily beat the ending amount of a portfolio with ...
by Alchemist
Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 16625

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

I am not a tilter and am pretty skeptical of factor premiums, but all these people giving up on SCV does almost make it tempting as a contrarian play....

Not gunna do it, but just saying. :P
by Alchemist
Thu Apr 16, 2020 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1118
Views: 113110

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

It’s not particularly interesting to me, no, and I feel like the main arguments have been advanced in other threads (many of which make this thread seem both erudite and overly civil). Fair enough. For now, maybe we could just agree that unless an investor was 100% certain they could predict the fu...
by Alchemist
Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1118
Views: 113110

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

I don't know whether VTSMX or VGTSX will have the higher return over the next decade, and neither do you. Given that uncertainty, the best way to reduce your risk of having the lowest return over that period of time is to own them both. Quantifying how much that risk is reduced is trivially easy on...
by Alchemist
Tue Apr 14, 2020 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1118
Views: 113110

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

What I created was an illustration , and it was indeed chosen to illustrate the refutation of a particularly inane argument. Namely, that US and ex-US stock returns are so "highly correlated" that there is no benefit to owning both. Clearly, using both the example you chose and the one I chose, tha...
by Alchemist
Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1118
Views: 113110

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

I never claimed my hypothetical retiree was a genius. In any case, the essential point is getting lost. That point is this: US stocks and international stocks do not move in lockstep. Whether we choose to illustrate it with US being the outperformer in particular time period or with the US being th...
by Alchemist
Sun Apr 12, 2020 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1118
Views: 113110

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Try a higher withdrawal rate, and use the conventional methodology of adjusting the withdrawals for inflation. You'll get there , I suspect. For some reason you have not just explained the data, so let me. You set up a constant dollar amount withdrawal that is equal to 7.2% of the initial balance. ...
by Alchemist
Sun Apr 12, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1118
Views: 113110

Re: Jack Bogle - Two Fund Portfolio

Did this hypothetical 2002 retiree with a 2-fund portfolio NEED to own international stocks? Only if they didn't want their portfolio to be drawn down to $0 by September 2019. https://i.imgur.com/OAE7IXU.png #4 is fine as far as it goes, but Bogle devolves into a muddle about short-term vs long-ter...
by Alchemist
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nassim Taleb-Advised Universa Tail Fund Returned 3,600% in March
Replies: 66
Views: 6539

Re: Nassim Taleb-Advised Universa Tail Fund Returned 3,600% in March

I wonder what the investor return was, after fees. Typically a hedge fund takes 20% or profits made while charging 2% or more per year in fees (on top of the 20% cut when things go well).
by Alchemist
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We are in a full-blown Depression
Replies: 95
Views: 8167

Re: We are in a full-blown Depression

Can people please stop listening to Ray Dalio? He is just shilling for his hedge fund.
by Alchemist
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the Bond Market's Expectation for Future Inflation?
Replies: 54
Views: 3003

Re: What's the Bond Market's Expectation for Inflation?

Thank you for the data, and the interesting presentation of it. It is weird but obviously correct to think of the current bond market as the collective wisdom of all bond investor's best forecast of future inflation for the next three decades. I do wonder though, will current bond investors setting ...
by Alchemist
Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modern Monetary Theory
Replies: 97
Views: 6783

Re: Modern Monetary Theory

Just to thank you for starting this thread, Alchemist (and in such a careful way as to avoid it running afoul of Forum rules). There is much to be learned on this subject from the Forum contributors, especially for us "financial hobbyists." I appreciate the kind words, and for your excellent contri...