Search found 329 matches

by Alchemist
Sat Sep 21, 2019 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX
Replies: 5
Views: 289

Re: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX

LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX gets less attention here. What do you guys think about the non-AQR alternatives? Is it accessible to DIY investors? They seem to be from Stone Ridge fund company that appears to favor institutional investors? :( In general I think 'alternative' investments like these are at best...
by Alchemist
Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Separate laptop for dealing with finances?
Replies: 37
Views: 2433

Re: Separate laptop for dealing with finances?

No, I don't use a separate machine and never will. I believe there are weaker links in the chain, anyway. But you should do whatever makes you comfortable. Instead, I: 1)keep all my equipment up-to-date - hardware and software 2)practice safe computing and use decent security tools 3)use a password...
by Alchemist
Thu Sep 19, 2019 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:
Replies: 81
Views: 4415

Re: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:

If you have a long-term investing strategy regarding using index funds and you measure failure by "a down quarter", it would be silly to throw out your strategy after three down quarters, agreed? Complete agreement. Again, it depends. You cling to a strategy because you believe it to be sound, not ...
by Alchemist
Thu Sep 19, 2019 1:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has the bond bubble finally arrived? If so, is anyone doing anything about it?
Replies: 88
Views: 9722

Re: Has the bond bubble finally arrived? If so, is anyone doing anything about it?

For many years I was heavily tilted toward long-term bonds. At the moment, I prefer the 1-year bond to the 20-year one, because there is less downside risk. Bonds are supposed to be the safe part of one's portfolio. Emphasis mine. All my bonds are short term treasuries (FUMBX) but I have a 90/10 po...
by Alchemist
Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:
Replies: 81
Views: 4415

Re: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:

If your strategy results in one of those acceptable outcomes, then it Perhaps. But of course that has nothing to do with what Alchemist wrote. And three failures in a row does not in any way prove that your strategy was incorrect. If three consecutive failures is not strong evidence of a bad strate...
by Alchemist
Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: USAA Auto Premiums Up Exactly 10% in 3 Consecutive Renewals?
Replies: 43
Views: 4382

Re: USAA Auto Premiums Up Exactly 10% in 3 Consecutive Renewals?

The details there are not exactly correct though. Garrison isn't the "penalty box". Garrison was created for dependents of dependents. Officer gets actual USAA, dependent of officer gets CIC and dependent of dependent gets Garrison. I checked the rate filings in Arizona and now CIC and Garrison hav...
by Alchemist
Tue Sep 17, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: USAA Auto Premiums Up Exactly 10% in 3 Consecutive Renewals?
Replies: 43
Views: 4382

Re: USAA Auto Premiums Up Exactly 10% in 3 Consecutive Renewals?

Something to keep in mind is that there are different tiers of USAA insurance policies with difference pricing levels. The top tier with the lowest premiums are used for active/retired officers. The next for senior enlisted, then junior enlisted/children of former active duty. Each one is priced dif...
by Alchemist
Tue Sep 17, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:
Replies: 81
Views: 4415

Re: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:

It is mostly useful as a warning against the 'lucky idiot' outcomes. Like a lucky stock or lottery winner. Attempting to defend a seemingly smart strategy post-hoc it is not so good for. We don't live in strategy land, we live in the world of real outcomes. A good excuse for poor performance. This i...
by Alchemist
Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 26253

Re: Small Cap Value Heads: A Lesson Learned.

I stand by my original statement that investors were better off avoiding Arnott's funds. For a real stinker take a look at his latest "multi-factor" funds vs TSM. Though in fairness they have only been around for less than 5 years. Since inception, they have outperformed total market. VT (Vanguard ...
by Alchemist
Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 26253

Re: Small Cap Value Heads: A Lesson Learned.

Investors in S&P 500 index funds have been far better off than investing in Arnott's funds....just saying.... March 9th 2009 to present, total return RAFI US +493% S&P 500 +445% and the RAFI fund is sitting on cheaper PE, PB as it looks like value is on an uptick. That is a bizarrely specific date ...
by Alchemist
Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 253
Views: 26253

Re: Small Cap Value Heads: A Lesson Learned.

Back to the topic: Critics of SCV are quick to point out underperformance (even though that's the whole point of "risk"). I see a new Taylor thread on this just about every 6 months. Serious question, how much outperformance would need to occur for even the most ardent of critics like Taylor to con...
by Alchemist
Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How old is your cellphone?
Replies: 159
Views: 7454

Re: How old is your cellphone?

I have an iPhone 6 that I plan to use until it dies. I also have a Windows 7 machine at home. No concerns about security. I am in the same position. I Phone 6 bought in Nov. 2014. Love it! Replaced battery once. Now down to 86% capacity. Will keep it until next fall when it will be 6 years new. Del...
by Alchemist
Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Log in Trouble @ Vanguard.com
Replies: 8
Views: 731

Re: Log in Trouble @ Vanguard.com

Are you enrolled in the voice verification? That should be all you need to verify yourself and change anything you need with your account over the phone. That is of course why it exists in the first place. Then again....this is Vanguard so no telling what they will do. I am also active duty military...
by Alchemist
Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bond bottom.
Replies: 55
Views: 12395

Re: I'm calling a bond bottom.

Credit where credit is due, Fred called this about as accurately as anyone possibly could. :sharebeer This was quite a contrarian call at the time. Most people and almost all "experts" were talking about how high rates were going to go with most predictions including 4-5% yields on the ten year trea...
by Alchemist
Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity: When Zero does not mean free
Replies: 108
Views: 10836

Re: Fidelity: When Zero does not mean free

Northern Flicker wrote:
Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:32 pm
Also unacceptable.
So then I guess its just direct indexing that would meet this due diligence test?

On a more important topic....what kind of cake we talking here? Chocolate? Angel Food? Maybe even Red Velvet?
by Alchemist
Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who have bonds in taxable, why and which ones?
Replies: 42
Views: 3431

Re: For those who have bonds in taxable, why and which ones?

Bogleheads philosophy states that it is better to have your bonds in tax advantage accounts. But I still see some questions around bonds in taxable accounts. Instead of hijacking those threads, I wanted to ask this general question as the reason might be different for different people. Everyone's t...
by Alchemist
Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity: When Zero does not mean free
Replies: 108
Views: 10836

Re: Fidelity: When Zero does not mean free

Well, I guess the moral of this thread is that Vanguard needs to offer delicious chicken sandwiches along with its index funds in order to compete with Fidelity. Maybe Great Grandma Bogle had a secret sauce to put on the chicken. I don't know how we got so off track but it was fun. Fidelity is alre...
by Alchemist
Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overweight China and Emerging Markets? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 34
Views: 3666

Re: Overweight China and Emerging Markets? (Ray Dalio)

Cathay Pacific is feeling the effect of Sovereign and Political risks of doing business in China. As are their investors. China Central Television, the mainland outlet that broke the news that Hogg was out, later published a long post Friday night on Chinese social network Weibo that characterized C...
by Alchemist
Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you get billed for child's college when not enough cash?
Replies: 50
Views: 4117

Re: How do you get billed for child's college when not enough cash?

Planning for when my child starts college and was wondering how the payment/billing works. Does it work similar to this? 1. accepted to college 2. apply for aide 3. college determines cost and bills parents for the first year 4. apply aide (if available) and payment (cash/529, etc...) to college bi...
by Alchemist
Tue Aug 20, 2019 12:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me think through demographic trends change my savings rate and life long investment in human capital
Replies: 53
Views: 2690

Re: Help me think through demographic trends change my savings rate and life long investment in human capital

Perhaps though given the error bars in these models and debates about them, demography trends in the US are opaque enough to not be actionable? Yes, the uncertainty of future population forecasts is so wide (not only for the U.S., but for the world as a whole and the various continents, charts belo...
by Alchemist
Mon Aug 19, 2019 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me think through demographic trends change my savings rate and life long investment in human capital
Replies: 53
Views: 2690

Re: Help me think through demographic trends change my savings rate and life long investment in human capital

You have brought up my personal favorite investing topic :D A recent foreign affairs article has me rethinking a lot. With a decreasing population in first world countries, I can imagine a lower real return in capital from both bonds and stocks. This would shift me to rather spend money today than t...
by Alchemist
Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 26858

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

It's worth noting the whole premise of the thread is dependent on which "earnings" measure you use. The JPM chart was based on estimated earnings. If one uses latest-twelve-months earnings, you get a different picture. The PE of the S&P 600 Value ETF (IJS) is 48. The PE of Vanguards SV ETF is 24. T...
by Alchemist
Sat Aug 17, 2019 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 26858

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

Getting back to the topic of the OP..... SCV currently being below historical PE while the rest of the market is near its historical PE certainly means that today they are cheaper relative to history. While the most attractive possible future is that this portends SCV outperformance, there are in fa...
by Alchemist
Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What companies provide the best customer service
Replies: 58
Views: 3771

Re: What companies provide the best customer service

I agree with the other's who mentioned Amex, Disney, and Fidelity but have to add one more. Apple My in store experiences have been excellent and a notable example is when I ordered an Apple watch band that Fedex failed to deliver. I got a delivery notice in my email which was odd because I was home...
by Alchemist
Fri Aug 16, 2019 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Personal Flagship Representaive Going Away
Replies: 111
Views: 10583

Re: Personal Flagship Representaive Going Away

I do not understand what Vanguard's current leadership is doing. They continually cut client services (Free turbotax, CFP access, 7 days a week phone support, outdated IT infrastructure, and now individual Flagship reps) while spending sizable sums of money on advertising. I do not think this would ...
by Alchemist
Fri Aug 16, 2019 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 74
Views: 13539

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Many investors may be either too young or too old to remember the period from 1971 to 1988 (nearly two full decades) during which a globally diversified equity portfolio complex completely dominated a US-only equity portfolio. I find it a bit disingenuous to include a 17 year time period that inclu...
by Alchemist
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard ongoing glitches, August 12-13, 2019]
Replies: 256
Views: 15719

Re: [Vanguard price glitches]

Article in today's WSJ said the glitch was the feed from the NYSE itself. So perhaps Vanguard is off the hook on this one? Not really. Despite this supposedly being a "market wide" issue Vanguard was the only fund company/brokerage that had an issue. My Fidelity accounts and even my Government run ...
by Alchemist
Sun Aug 11, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 249
Views: 21443

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

Why all the concern about negative yields now, when it didn't happen during the previous periods of low yields? Because of demographics. US median age has never been higher. Older populations means a greater desire for fixed income. This is true, but the peak it will reach in the U.S. before flatte...
by Alchemist
Wed Aug 07, 2019 3:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard customer service
Replies: 44
Views: 2277

Re: Vanguard Customer Service Recently

I keep telling folks about the downside of the race to the bottom on fees. Someone in another thread bragged about having his money at Fidelity all in their Zero Funds. Tried to tell him that this will turn Fidelity into another Vanguard in terms of customer service. We all want low and competitive...
by Alchemist
Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 17656

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

Why own international? Based on some historical data: Jan 2000-Dec 2009 VTSMX Vanguard Total Stock Mkt USA: -.27% CAGR ending balance is $9,732 VEIEX Vanguard Emerging Market Index: 9.82% CAGR ending balance is $25,520 VTMGX Vanguard Developed Markets Index: 1.24% CAGR ending balance is $11,308 I c...
by Alchemist
Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question about Schwab changes
Replies: 19
Views: 2035

Re: Question about Schwab changes

Thanks for the suggestions! I might have been too polite at the beginning, same as I dealt with Schwab folks before. I didn't explicitly point out his misleading claims, which made him feel he could land a sale if he pushed hard. I'll tell him to stop, and if not I'd switch to another branch or fir...
by Alchemist
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fired Investment Advisor -- Need Help!
Replies: 8
Views: 1046

Re: Fired Investment Advisor -- Need Help!

Jack FFR1846 wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 12:57 pm
Sell everything.

BUY:
VTI
BND

Have a nice day.
I second that. But if Vanguard ETF's are not free to trade at the new brokerage, iShares probably are. In that case:

BUY:

ITOT (equivalent of VTI)
AGG (equivalent of BND).
by Alchemist
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My "Timing the Market" Experiment
Replies: 55
Views: 5345

Re: My "Timing the Market" Experiment

It is easy to spot bad signs for the market. It is hard and nearly impossible to turn that into profitable investment moves. In 1996 Alan Greenspan (and others) rightfully pointed out irrational exuberance. The problem? They were right but too early. If you sold in 1996 waiting for the market to cra...
by Alchemist
Sun Aug 04, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 17656

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

Major international companies are multi-national, just like major U.S. companies. So they'll move their operations to the U.S. when necessary (to avoid tariffs and import restrictions) or to other countries with much cheaper labor. My Honda was built in Marysville, Ohio. They also have factories in...
by Alchemist
Fri Aug 02, 2019 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 17656

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

How long are we supposed to expect the US to sustain a higher rate of exponential growth? This would mean in absolute terms, the US is continually pulling further and further ahead -- if it merely maintains its existing lead, that would show up as identical returns. That's the question you should b...
by Alchemist
Fri Aug 02, 2019 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 17656

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

+1 Recommending 20% international for a young novice investor is ludacris. Classic recency bias and performance chasing. Things will change when international recovers. Performance chasing will shift to international. International has underperformed total bond market for 23 years . Or in other wor...
by Alchemist
Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does TSP’s S + C Funds = Total Stock Market?
Replies: 11
Views: 1003

Re: Does TSP’s S + C Funds = Total Stock Market?

Just to clarify an answer to the original question, in order to approximate the Total Stock Market you can hold 80% C Fund to 20% S Fund to get pretty close. Day to day, the real difference floats around by a percentage point or two but 80/20 split between them is pretty close. In my TSP I hold 80/2...
by Alchemist
Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks
Replies: 241
Views: 17656

Re: Why Mr. Bogle prefers U.S stocks

Not to take away from the rest of you post, but note that the US has plentiful corruption ... by legalizing the act and calling it lobbying we cannot conveniently pretend it is less corrupt. If you think that corruption issues in the U.S. are somehow equivalent to corruption issues in India and Chi...
by Alchemist
Mon Jul 29, 2019 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China's No. 2 Auditor Is Accused of Faking Data; Clients' IPOs Are Halted
Replies: 16
Views: 1717

Re: China's No. 2 Auditor Is Accused of Faking Data; Clients' IPOs Are Halted

Very interesting. One reason I am wary of investing in China, not sure I can trust the numbers. I know I can't trust the numbers from China. I am deeply curious what their real GDP numbers are. Given the level of blatant fraud the only thing for certain is it is some number smaller than officially ...
by Alchemist
Sat Jul 27, 2019 11:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Regression to Mean - whats the next Armageddon for stocks?
Replies: 22
Views: 2288

Re: Regression to Mean - whats the next Armageddon for stocks?

Even though it's been a great bull run since 2009 the performance since 2000 at 5.5 CAGR (last 2 decades in aggregate) has been well below historical averages so no.. I don't think there is any reason we should be crashing. 2000-2009 was a lost decade, people seem to forget that. Also, 2018 was a d...
by Alchemist
Fri Jul 26, 2019 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?
Replies: 152
Views: 10146

Re: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?

The absolute value of interest rates does not matter though right? Its the spread between what they pay depositors and what they lend money at right. That is likely facing some pressure from the flat/inverted yield curve at the moment but probably won't forever.. All things being equal, yes. But lo...
by Alchemist
Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Bucket Approach
Replies: 74
Views: 6054

Re: The Bucket Approach

I do not have any strong opinion regarding any retirement strategy at the moment. I am a few decades from needing to pick one; but the bucket approach is at least emotionally appealing to me. It seems less a really new strategy or alternative to traditional AA approaches, and more just a different f...
by Alchemist
Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 241
Views: 21713

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

I am 100% U.S. in both stocks and bonds. Overall asset allocation is 90/10. All bonds currently in 1-5 year Treasury index fund (FUMBX); though always considering just making it TBM instead.
by Alchemist
Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns
Replies: 84
Views: 17257

Re: The Single Greatest Predictor of Future Stock Market Returns

What's the correlation between u.s stocks and international stocks? Is it worth increasing international allocation ? From May, 1996, through June, 2019 (data available in Portfolio Visualizer), the monthly correlation between Vanguard's U.S. TSM fund (VTSMX) and their total international stock fun...
by Alchemist
Thu Jul 25, 2019 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?
Replies: 152
Views: 10146

Re: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?

Fourth, if you are a 3 fund type of guy or gal, just stick with what you have. Just be prepared for Value to outperform the broad indexes for a few years when market leadership changes. As they say, you need to dance with the gal who brought you to the dance. Also not predicting doom for the 3 fund...
by Alchemist
Thu Jul 25, 2019 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?
Replies: 152
Views: 10146

Re: Is there a High Tech Bubble in S&P 500 & Total Market?

The Price to Earnings multiple for the S&P 500 reached 32 in 1999, and topped out at 46 at the bottom on the bear market in 2002. Currently it is 22. https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio/table/by-year The Total Stock Market is 20 (as measured by VTI). These are certainly not low valuations, but f...
by Alchemist
Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 165
Views: 20603

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

(Recession will come) AND (we are at already low rates) AND (tax increases or budget cuts are unlikely) ---> there will be more money printing ---> USD assets will depreciate ---> gold will appreciate. Tax increases or budget cuts being unlikely is part of the argument. To be more nuanced, there ma...
by Alchemist
Sun Jul 21, 2019 11:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round
Replies: 165
Views: 20603

Re: Ray Dalio’s latest fearmongering round

The Federal Government tax revenues are only 16.5% of GDP for 2018. The total tax to GDP ratio for the United States is 27% (including all state/local taxes). That is pretty low by developed nation standards: The United States ranked 31st out of 36 OECD countries in terms of the tax-to-GDP ratio in ...
by Alchemist
Tue Jul 16, 2019 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 8726

Re: RTM

There are MANY rational reasons an investor might choose a single factor approach to stock investing using a market cap-weighted total stock market index fund. Like, some REALLY good reasons that I don't think I need to enumerate. But there is no basis that I can see for asserting that such a fund ...
by Alchemist
Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value Funds: Then And Now
Replies: 74
Views: 8726

Re: RTM

One reason the two camps continue to run into each other is because of the continued insistence by one group that certain facts only exist if you hold a certain viewpoint. In many cases, that is false, and it challenges the credibility of this forum. If someone wants to invest in a single factor, o...