Search found 806 matches

by Theoretical
Mon Mar 27, 2017 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 3376
Views: 858300

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Today seems like a very chicken little day, but on the other hand, it does seem like some people finally got out of all cash and plunked into the market when it's high.
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Weathering sell-off days like today
Replies: 103
Views: 4868

Re: Weathering sell-off days like today

This is hardly a bad sell-off, and is quite a normal day.
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 27, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merriman Expense Ratios: .65% and .58% too high?
Replies: 18
Views: 1211

Re: Merriman Expense Ratios: .65% and .58% too high?

jayhawkerbeef wrote:I don't like paying more than the ERs associated with either VEA, VSS, VEU, VWO when using any of those while building out a Merriman portfolio, so ya I think those expenses are high.


What's your maximum comfort level for loading out on a Merriman portfolio in terms of fees?
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 27, 2017 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Suggestion needed for Corporate Bonds/Funds
Replies: 8
Views: 576

Re: Suggestion needed for Corporate Bonds/Funds

Also, you're in a high tax bracket and corporate bonds are punishingly expensive. If you want corporate exposure, why not do a barbell of 20-30% stocks and 70% Short-Mid Munis? It'll be vastly more tax-efficient.
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 27, 2017 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put small cap value fund in portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 1517

Re: Where to put small cap value fund in portfolio

10 year Morningstar tax efficiency: IJS - .34 VTI - .44 VBR - .57 3 year - around the time Vanguard switched to CSRP IJS - .41 VTI - .58 VBR - .62 http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/tax-analysis.action?t=IJS&region=usa&culture=en_US The reason is that the S&P 600 value is low on REI...
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put small cap value fund in portfolio
Replies: 21
Views: 1517

Re: Where to put small cap value fund in portfolio

VIOV/IJS are ideal for taxable accounts, as they're equally or more tax-efficient than TSM. At your tax bracket, the lower yield will probably make them a better choice than the regular Small Cap Value shares, but it won't make that much difference. However, for overall construction, I much prefer u...
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 26, 2017 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System
Replies: 43
Views: 3794

Re: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System

I much prefer Bernstein's roll-your-own pension LMP/Risk portfolio approach. Benz's is a mess.
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 26, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 103
Views: 5832

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

Interesting comments regarding different options for investing in Emerging Markets accounts (reading different threads). I've been investigating some of these funds and see the ER's are a much higher cost than the Vanguard Admiral Shares Index Fund. Can anyone give me a compelling reason as to why ...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 25, 2017 10:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Would Factor Investing Have Done In Japan
Replies: 10
Views: 867

Re: How Would Factor Investing Have Done In Japan

It's one of the strongest places for the value premium, and conversely, it's one of the only places that has traditionally had a negative momentum premium. [url] https://www.aqr.com/library/data-sets/value-and-momentum-everywhere-factors-monthly[/url] http://www.cfapubs.org/doi/pdf/10.2469/faj.v72.n...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 25, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merriman Expense Ratios: .65% and .58% too high?
Replies: 18
Views: 1211

Re: Merriman Expense Ratios: .65% and .58% too high?

Thanks @Theoretical !! I've been so focused on eeking out an extra 1/2% and keeping costs down, I was surprised and somewhat sticker shocked. I thought every fund should be as cheap as a vanguard index fund :-) Mike Keep in mind that you're paying a price for those fees. You're stuck with both tran...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 25, 2017 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification & International Exposure - Fund Selection Assistance
Replies: 12
Views: 603

Re: Diversification & International Exposure - Fund Selection Assistance

The main difference is that the Fidelity mutual funds aren't as tax efficient as IXUS or paying a commission for VXUS because they have to distribute capital gains.
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 25, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merriman Expense Ratios: .65% and .58% too high?
Replies: 18
Views: 1211

Re: Merriman Expense Ratios: .65% and .58% too high?

None of those are crazy for a slice-n-dice portfolio. Options for ISV and EM SV are few and far between.
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 25, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about adding a 5% position to commodities
Replies: 21
Views: 1379

Re: Thinking about adding a 5% position to commodities

Hmm, I think I got that mixed up with gold. So scratch that part - I edited that. Thanks for the heads up.
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 25, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about adding a 5% position to commodities
Replies: 21
Views: 1379

Re: Thinking about adding a 5% position to commodities

I think Commodities do have a small place in the portfolio, but only as part of a portfolio whole. Before adding them, you really need to consider why you're adding them. Merely adding them due to "non-correlation" won't help you when they do become correlated. For example, long treasuries...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 25, 2017 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification & International Exposure - Fund Selection Assistance
Replies: 12
Views: 603

Re: Diversification & International Exposure - Fund Selection Assistance

What brokerage do you have?

If it's Fidelity, I'd recommend IXUS. If TD Ameritrade, VEU (Vanguard FTSE Ex-US). If Schwab, then VXUS (pay the commission rather than having to use 3 funds).
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 24, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about adding a 5% position to commodities
Replies: 21
Views: 1379

Re: Thinking about adding a 5% position to commodities

Yeah, post-2008, I wouldn't touch an ETN with a 10 foot pole.
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 24, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thinking about adding a 5% position to commodities
Replies: 21
Views: 1379

Re: Thinking about adding a 5% position to commodities

Pimco's PCRIX is also pretty good, as it uses TIPS to be the collateral for the commodities futures.
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 24, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Merriman Bonds vs. horrible 401k bonds . . .
Replies: 29
Views: 1497

Re: Merriman Bonds vs. horrible 401k bonds . . .

Why is Merriman recommending 2 municipal funds for your Roth IRA?
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 24, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting - Alternative List
Replies: 7
Views: 476

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting - Alternative List

https://us.spdrs.com/en/resources/distributions/index.seam?ticker=SLYV&onyx_code1=&onyx_code2=NA SLYV spits out significant capital gains, including short term gains. Neither VIOV or IJS do. For some reason, State Street isn't as good as Blackrock, Vanguard, or Schwab at this tax efficiency...
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 24, 2017 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting - Alternative List
Replies: 7
Views: 476

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting - Alternative List

Disclaimer: I utilize Schwab as my brokerage provider. But, I utilize funds from Vanguard and others as investments If I'm looking to setup a Tax Loss Harvesting plan. What would be considered reliable "alternatives"? In other words for example, if I'm selling Total Stock Market (VTI) for...
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 23, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy short-term bond funds when you can get 1% in savings acct?
Replies: 29
Views: 2496

Re: Why buy short-term bond funds when you can get 1% in savings acct?

So the thing I'm struggling with is that the conservative/safe bond funds (like short term treasury) don't seem very attractive when compared to the sure 1% rate I can get in an online savings account at someplace like Ally Bank where the money is insured and liquid. I would just point out (acknowl...
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy short-term bond funds when you can get 1% in savings acct?
Replies: 29
Views: 2496

Re: Why buy short-term bond funds when you can get 1% in savings acct?

Also short-to-ultrashort treasury bond funds tend to do OK during inflationary cycles in a way that cash does not, because of the interest rates changing faster than the banks do. Inflation risk and interest rate changes are priced into bond prices in a way that is not for bank accounts.
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buy short-term bond funds when you can get 1% in savings acct?
Replies: 29
Views: 2496

Re: Why buy short-term bond funds when you can get 1% in savings acct?

Also short-to-ultrashort treasury bond funds tend to do OK during inflationary cycles in a way that cash does not, because of the interest rates changing faster than the banks do. Inflation risk is priced into bond prices in a way that is not for bank accounts.
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 103
Views: 5832

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

Only you can know your own risk tolerance, but there are a few words of caution. IJS performed unusually well (and didn't bounce back as much in 2009) for SCV in 2008 because its structure deprecates financials and REITs, the two sectors that got most crushed. The next crisis could be and probably w...
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 103
Views: 5832

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

Larry, Thank You so much for this article!!! I read all of your articles at etf.com. Since you posted expected forward returns for US stocks and emerging markets, could you also post expected returns for small cap stocks, small cap value, international developed and Reits? Paul Merriman and yoursel...
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CEFs beat Vanguard
Replies: 9
Views: 1191

Re: CEFs beat Vanguard

Even by the low standards of financial journalism, that's a terrible article. 8% yield on a US stock fund at today's values is basically witchcraft involving leveraged utility stocks, highly depressed yielders and maybe some junk bonds and Reits. Pass!
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else taking less risk
Replies: 115
Views: 9294

Re: Anyone else taking less risk

Because once an investor looks at cash as an option – in essence, the price of being able to scoop up a bargain when it becomes available – So this essentially advocates market timing. Yes, but in the "ok to sin a little" sense. Most of the market timers we see on the boards and investing...
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation anxiety
Replies: 27
Views: 1152

Re: Asset allocation anxiety

I think you'd actually be pretty well served by something like Vanguard Portfolio Advisory Services and/or some fee-only investment counseling.
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife's Asset Allocation - 401k options limited
Replies: 8
Views: 458

Re: Wife's Asset Allocation - 401k options limited

That's not a terrible 401k at all. There are some GREAT and cheap options in there.

I second the .12 DFA bonds. Any of the DFA or Vanguard options would serve you and her well.
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 103
Views: 5832

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

I think a lot of the discomfort related to EM, especially standalone EM holdings, is due to one having too high of an asset allocation to equities overall, relative to one's risk tolerance. The other reason is the distinct political risks involved, and the country over-concentration in most EM funds.
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife's Asset Allocation - 401k options limited
Replies: 8
Views: 458

Re: Wife's Asset Allocation - 401k options limited

Yes, can we see a full list of the 401k options and their expense ratios. At the max tax bracket you're in, it'd have to be an utterly abysmal 401k to not be worth using (like expense ratios north of 2% for the money market fund).
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Bond Funds Holding Their Own
Replies: 20
Views: 1285

Re: Active Bond Funds Holding Their Own

Several things come to mind. 1. Active funds can ride the yield curve in a way that strict indexes can't. 2. Some "active" funds seem to hold more bonds than their index counterparts. I think that's especially the case for Vanguard's municipal funds vs. the Barclays Municipal index 3. In l...
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 21, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.
Replies: 18
Views: 1220

Re: I would appreciate comments on my asset allocation.

I'm actually not a fan. I don't especially mind the 50/50 allocation or the small/mid cap tilt - but the two seem incompatible to me. Your stock/bond allocation suggests conservative investing, which is fine. Your stock portfolio suggests aggressive investing, which is also fine. At first glance, y...
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 21, 2017 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Vanguard have contrarian funds ?
Replies: 25
Views: 1729

Re: Does Vanguard have contrarian funds ?

The usual choices are short-term TIPS, I Bonds, commodities funds, and possibly unhedged international bonds.

For a retirement portfolio, a long TIPS ladder has undeniable appeal.
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 21, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does Vanguard have contrarian funds ?
Replies: 25
Views: 1729

Re: Does Vanguard have contrarian funds ?

Vanguard's market neutral fund is poorly run, so I would pass on that even if you're willing to put up the quarter million buy-in. AQR has better options. You can sometimes buy AQR funds at Fidelity without an advisor. I haven't checked recently. Not anymore. They fired AXA Rosenberg in 2010 and th...
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 21, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for Long/Short Mutual Fund recommendation?
Replies: 1
Views: 163

Re: Looking for Long/Short Mutual Fund recommendation?

What specifically are you wanting to target? Deeper factor tilts without/with less Beta? Time Series Momentum?
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Horrible 401K Fund Choices--Direct transfer to IRA questions
Replies: 7
Views: 386

Re: Horrible 401K Fund Choices--Direct transfer to IRA questions

Please post what the options are. Having any equity options at .2% is by definition not a horrible 401k. Even ones at .8% aren't "horrible." The international ones might be, but there's definitely likely to be some good options.
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 21, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Leverage Target-Date fund to make rebalancing easier?
Replies: 5
Views: 462

Re: Leverage Target-Date fund to make rebalancing easier?

Since it's a roth IRA, convert the Admiral shares to ETFs, sell whatever you need to add to Total Stock (also ETF for now), then once the 401k is large enough to cover your holdings, then sell both VTI and VXUS in the Roth and replace it with the Admiral Shares again.
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: endowment investment guiding principles for small nonprofits
Replies: 5
Views: 233

Re: endowment investment guiding principles for small nonprofits

I think a lot of inspiration could be drawn from Norway's sovereign wealth fund. The biggest differences for a small org compared to a retail investor: 1. Tax-efficiency is almost entirely moot (save for Utbi issues). 2. Management has to plan for essentially an infinite time duration and long-term ...
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 20, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Funds for taxable account
Replies: 11
Views: 935

Re: Funds for taxable account

I am buying the ETF, ishares Total Stock Market (ITOT) tomorrow since I hold VTI (ETF for vanguard total stock) in my Roth account. i think this would eliminate any potential wash sale should I sell ITOT. even if my wife holds ITOT in her Roth IRA since the taxable account is not a joint account. I...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Party is Over: Andrews FCU drops rate on 7-year CD to 2.2%
Replies: 60
Views: 5783

Re: The Party is Over: Andrews FCU drops rate on 7-year CD to 2.2%

Well, I think the concerns are very accurate for corporates and municipal bonds but treasury or government-sponsored bonds don't need any or much diversification beyond the necessary bonds you need to target the sought duration.
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International
Replies: 47
Views: 3333

Re: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International

One observation. It seems like it might be that there's still significant premium available to harvest by the sheer fact that aside from DFA, there are so relatively few international small cap value funds actively targeting these stocks. Virtually none target actual small or microcaps. I wonder if ...
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?
Replies: 342
Views: 21633

Re: Why go with an 80% stock / 20% bond portfolio?

Here's an interesting argument for significant bond holdings for the crisis drawdowns. If you have enough bond cushion, then if the proverbial nightmare deflationary scenario happens, your asset allocation to stocks is actually increasing as the market continues to wallow. If you're having to sell l...
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with measly 401k options
Replies: 9
Views: 446

Re: Help with measly 401k options

I'd do the PIMCO because it's both a short term bond fund and an S&P 500 fund (using e-minis). You end up getting a bit more bang for your buck that way. 8bps for a decent active bond strategy is pretty good (relatively speaking). Please share all options because there may be a less unappealing ...
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 16, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I am in US equities and cash. Am I an idiot?
Replies: 43
Views: 4768

Re: I am in US equities and cash. Am I an idiot?

Two notes. You're not crazy (as long as the cash is at a high yield savings account, though I'd roll one year CDs to get a bit more yield). The biggest problem with "cash" (assuming you aren't rolling ultra-short t-bills is your inflation vulnerability. I'd consider either putting a bit in...
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment books I have read.
Replies: 55
Views: 10604

Re: Investment books I have read.

I'm really enjoying listening to the updated The Intelligent Investor.
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Combine TIPS and nominal Treasuries
Replies: 4
Views: 591

Re: Combine TIPS and nominal Treasuries

Are you trying to build a hedge for unexpected short term inflation or for long term inflation? The best way to do this would be shorting treasury futures of a particular duration while owning an equal amount of nominal TIP. If you're willing to accept a modest amount of interest rate risk (with the...
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 15, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International
Replies: 47
Views: 3333

Re: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International

Once Vanguard rolls out an ISV fund, I will swap out into that. It may be years though. They don't even have a large-cap international value fund that is an index fund (get rid of VTRIX already). The AUM for VFSVX/VSS is so small right now (relatively, for VG). They actually do now, or at least as ...
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 15, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International
Replies: 47
Views: 3333

Re: 15% International Small-Cap vs 30% Total International

DLS (WisdomTree International Small Cap Dividend) has a pretty good history with returns close to DFA's ISV option. PDN and FNDC are the RAFI style value funds, and both are closer to midcaps than smalls. There's really only one retail-available fund I've found that partially fits this bill. I don't...

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