Search found 1039 matches

by Theoretical
Fri Jun 23, 2017 12:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts about tilting away from the sector you work in?
Replies: 25
Views: 1330

Re: Thoughts about tilting away from the sector you work in?

While we wait, I think the pretty-good workaround is through beta. If you are in a high-beta industry (presumably with a high-beta career), you should invest low-beta in compensation. If you are in a low-beta sector with a low-beta career, then you can take on more market risk in your portfolio. Th...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts
Replies: 82
Views: 5192

Re: Your Favorite Portfolio Tilts

With that kind of equity risk, you should be using EDV or ZROZ, not intermediate treasuries and a savings account.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 22, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(
Replies: 37
Views: 2571

Re: Vanguard: HOW MUCH active management is right for you? :(

I think Swedroe has made a good point distinguishing between passive-index, passive-non-index, and active. The Vanguard bond funds (save the Core Bond fund) are passive non-indexers, not active for the most part. This is partly because there's far more bonds outstanding than are indexed. I'd classif...
by Theoretical
Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed
Replies: 41
Views: 2129

Re: Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury (VFITX) - Actively Managed

Wow. That's crazy for a treasury security, especially with 40 bonds.
by Theoretical
Tue Jun 20, 2017 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta
Replies: 24
Views: 2394

Re: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta

There are many roads to Dublin, but changing roads as frequently as they have done is not one of them. First it was replace safe bonds with dividend stocks and EM bonds. Now it's multifactor after bashing anything other than market cap weighting. PASS. The last thing I want to do is hold 600-800 lar...
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: More Evidence Against Active
Replies: 5
Views: 1128

Re: Larry Swedroe: More Evidence Against Active

Okay, I give up. The "unanswered posts" search shows both a Larry Swedroe case for Active Management and an Evidence Against Active Management thread. The "Case for Active Management" one was an article that quoted something positive in reference to active and then showed how it...
by Theoretical
Sun Jun 18, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 90
Views: 8182

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

I think one difference is that this fund makes more sense than the savings account if you're using cash as an asset class, rather than an e-fund or saving for a big purchase.
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Family Death in MD
Replies: 19
Views: 1533

Re: Family Death in MD

Former estate planning attorney here. This is a big mess. The will almost certainly says something about the property distribution, probably along the lines of "I give the residue of my estate" to X or X class or whatever. If it doesn't that'd be very unusual. Whoever is going to be the ex...
by Theoretical
Fri Jun 16, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: iShares Core MSCI World is deviating from benchmark. Why?
Replies: 3
Views: 359

Re: iShares Core MSCI World is deviating from benchmark. Why?

It looks like the collateral for the securities lending done by the fund.
by Theoretical
Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The two envelope problem and some thoughts on diversification, rebalancing, variance
Replies: 12
Views: 853

Re: The two envelope problem and some thoughts on diversification, rebalancing, variance

But the factor opponent's counter-argument (or mine, anyways) to that: While there is plenty of evidence of risk averse individuals, companies, etc. holding bond (or cash) heavy portfolios to reduce risk, there's a lot less evidence of equity investors overweighting growth to reduce their equity ri...
by Theoretical
Fri Jun 16, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The two envelope problem and some thoughts on diversification, rebalancing, variance
Replies: 12
Views: 853

Re: The two envelope problem and some thoughts on diversification, rebalancing, variance

1) If you start with TSM, tilting/overweighting bits within the TSM will generally increase risk, not decrease it (contra those who argue that by overweighting some bits you're exposed to more risk factors and thus reduce risk). Yes, some slices of the market will be lower risk, and actual experien...
by Theoretical
Fri Jun 16, 2017 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Amazon Buys Whole Foods
Replies: 95
Views: 9275

Re: Amazon Buys Whole Foods

Whole Foods produce is nothing to write home about, because they use regional centers to centralize and then send out. Walmart and the local Kroger or Tom Thumb (Safeway) routinely beat it.

Now Trader Joe's produce is in a whole other (bad) category. You get what you pay for on that one.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT in a taxable account
Replies: 17
Views: 1800

Re: REIT in a taxable account

Only timber REITs belong in taxable. The problem is that there's only 4 of them.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 15, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market index funds are unsustainable?
Replies: 12
Views: 2304

Re: Market index funds are unsustainable?

Regardless of the merits or demerits of sustainable investing, I immediately distrust anyone who redefines well-established words in that tortured of a way. It's qualitatively different even than the dubious art of saying an extreme growth stock is a value bargain because it's got even more potentia...
by Theoretical
Tue Jun 13, 2017 5:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust Fund Hell
Replies: 66
Views: 7162

Re: Trust Fund Hell

This may not be trust fund heaven, but it's not that bad. We are kind of 5%-ers here on BH, but this would probably be in the top quintile of trust funds. I hope she thanks him for his work and planning over the years, then listens to you for the way forward. Pretty much this. It is chaotic and not...
by Theoretical
Tue Jun 13, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Merging bypass & survivor's trust
Replies: 7
Views: 666

Re: Merging bypass & survivor's trust

Ditto to the techniques described here. You want an experienced trusts and estates attorney who regularly works with taxable estates. In this regard, consider looking for an attorney who has been practicing for at least 10 years, or if younger, whose experience has been at an elite boutique. Why? Be...
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 12, 2017 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Add TIPS and High Yield Corporate Bonds To Your Portfolio?
Replies: 16
Views: 1393

Re: Add TIPS and High Yield Corporate Bonds To Your Portfolio?

If I wasn't also heavily into Small Value, I'd strongly consider the Fallen Angels junk fund ANGL, perhaps as a barbell with treasuries.

The comparison of default rates between BB, B, and the Ca are completely stunning. 1%, 7%, and 14% as averages.

ANGl is 75% BB
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 12, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets fund: DFEMX vs DFEVX vs FPMAX
Replies: 8
Views: 561

Re: Emerging markets fund: DFEMX vs DFEVX vs FPMAX

Well there's a downside to it. EM Value is a rough ride, even by EM standards.
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 12, 2017 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets fund: DFEMX vs DFEVX vs FPMAX
Replies: 8
Views: 561

Re: Emerging markets fund: DFEMX vs DFEVX vs FPMAX

Actually, the DFA funds have far less turnover than the Fidelity index - 4-6% vs 25%.

The value fund is the most diversified in terms of number of companies and is the only one to get you Small Cap EM exposure (all Value).
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard believes in active managment
Replies: 19
Views: 1489

Re: Vanguard believes in active managment

Their "active" bond funds have a lot more bonds than the indexes and have less turnover. There's also the benefit of being able to negotiate institutional prices for new issues. Regarding their stock funds, many of them are quant strategies with moderate turnover at most that merely aren't...
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Looking to get away for large growth tilt taxable account. Advice?
Replies: 3
Views: 318

Re: Looking to get away for large growth tilt taxable account. Advice?

Torch the actives. I had a lot more capital gains than that and spread it over 3 years. If you're prioritizing them, then do a ranking as follows: Category 1 - expense ratio Category 2 - turnover rate The latter is what kills you with capital gains distributions. So your analysis isn't unduly skewed...
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 12, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Using Market Cap to approximate Fundamental or equity weighting
Replies: 21
Views: 935

Re: Using Market Cap to approximate Fundamental or equity weighting

Robert T did some analysis that showed a 66% Value/33% Growth with the Russell 1000 indexes gets you most of the way there from a 3 factor perspective. I also think Bill Bernstein and the Schulteis approaches of splitting blend and value do much the same. It also works with the S&P 600 growth an...
by Theoretical
Sun Jun 11, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust
Replies: 26
Views: 1601

Re: SPY is a Unit Investment Trust

The rule is often stated as follows: “No interest is good unless it must vest, if at all, not later than twenty-one years after the death of some life in being at the creation of the interest.” In this context, the children are the absolute duration measures until January 22, 2097. At that point, if...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 10, 2017 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 6720

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

So, even though there may be a probability of continued low inflation, there is a real risk of higher inflation. That would seem to suggest that it would be wise to use a higher allocation to TIPS than one might have 10 years ago to protect oneself from those risks. Interesting point. TIPS in defer...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 10, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 6720

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Oh I completely agree that there's a quality of living difference. On the macro scale, I think the heavy use of derivatives makes "what's out there" a murky concept. When you had trillions of dollars in leverage collapse followed by trillions in worldwide QE, I think there's a real risk th...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 6720

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Inflation is more subtle. Gasoline has 10% ethanol (less energy), a half gallon of ice cream is now 1.75 quarts, orange juice containers are 59 oz not 64, etc...

Also, housing prices have been soaring for quite some time in many areas.
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting Study in Factor Investing
Replies: 4
Views: 474

Re: Interesting Study in Factor Investing

The NYT article is only 6 years old. That's nothing in any investing context, though you correctly identify the psychological problem with tracking error.
by Theoretical
Fri Jun 09, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium
Replies: 47
Views: 4780

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium

Does this mean that it is better to tilt toward value? I have been reading the Boglehead's suggested readings and have seen conflicting opinions on tilting toward value. "Lord make me chaste. But not yet" - St. Augustine You can tilt 20% of your portfolio towards the value premium. On the...
by Theoretical
Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does S&P PE ratio matter
Replies: 30
Views: 1472

Re: Why does S&P PE ratio matter

I think it's really important to use multiple value measures besides PE to say that a market is over or undervalued.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why You Still Can’t Trust Your Financial Adviser
Replies: 54
Views: 5551

Re: Why You Still Can’t Trust Your Financial Adviser

The emotional/behavior side though is more complex no matter what the allocation.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does S&P PE ratio matter
Replies: 30
Views: 1472

Re: Why does S&P PE ratio matter

It's not a percentage, or rather it's an inversion of a percentage of Earnings Yield. Basically, if you're only going to get 2% earnings yield (PE of 50), then unless bonds are deeply negative yields (like -2% or world), you're taking a lot of risk for no reward over a much less risky security than ...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does S&P PE ratio matter
Replies: 30
Views: 1472

Re: Why does S&P PE ratio matter

It matters because historically, over 20 meant a recession was likely and over 25 meant a crash was looming. I think one can argue that 25 and 30 are more common analogous numbers now with modern accounting rules. At the least, it also suggests that one should expect lower returns going forward for ...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why You Still Can’t Trust Your Financial Adviser
Replies: 54
Views: 5551

Re: Why You Still Can’t Trust Your Financial Adviser

(Lawyer too) I think the (legitimate) reasons why some are afraid of the rule is because they're dependent on a series of variables that are totally out of their control as to whether they did a good job. It's a lot different than most medicine or legal work, but usually the situations are clearer, ...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 2303

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

Price to sales looks absolutely amazing for the S&P 600 Value
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio
Replies: 15
Views: 2303

Re: Small Cap Value is Trading at a 49x P/E Ratio

Well, M*'s is also kind of bogus, because it's based on forward earnings.

I think Fidelity's "key statistics" for ETFs is one of the best in the business for showing where the fund stands relative to its peers and uses trailing earnings.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?
Replies: 103
Views: 6422

Re: Does anyone feel they missed out on AMZN, NFLX,TSLA?

For me, they have great products but hold no interest as investments because a lot of the technology disrupters are too early or stumble into oblivion.

I'm ok with missing "the next big thing."
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets Index Missing Big Names
Replies: 30
Views: 3025

Re: Emerging Markets Index Missing Big Names

The diversification is there no matter whether there is a concrete current benefit. It is a good point that while some diversifications are beneficial, others can be detrimental. How do you, jalbert, determine which ones those are in advance, assuming beneficial means higher risk-adjusted returns o...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares VWEHX
Replies: 47
Views: 3559

Re: Vanguard High-Yield Corporate Fund Investor Shares VWEHX

If you're going to do it, the fund to pick is either this one or Van Eck's Fallen Angels fund ANGL, because it's an arbitrage play and the bonds are higher quality on the whole.

Credit spreads are painfully tight though.
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 08, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Married filing separately vs staying single for tax savings
Replies: 31
Views: 2340

Re: Married filing separately vs staying single for tax savings

http://texaslawhelp.org/files/685E99A9-A3EB-6584-CA74-137E0474AE2C/attachments/D82134BE-C249-CFB5-6869-1BD25BA6E78F/407091LHT%2032_1%20Comm%20Law%20Marriage.pdf My family law professor was a recently retired 25 year family court appellate judge and it takes only one occasion to trigger it. Normally...
by Theoretical
Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Married filing separately vs staying single for tax savings
Replies: 31
Views: 2340

Re: Married filing separately vs staying single for tax savings

If you don't get married but do have the ceremony, do not travel to Texas together as a couple until the 4.5 years is past. Common law marriage is very easy to trigger in Texas, even for a brief stopover.
by Theoretical
Wed Jun 07, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Your Investment Strategy Should Fit on an Index Card"
Replies: 17
Views: 3191

Re: "Why Your Investment Strategy Should Fit on an Index Card"

Buy low, sell high is also the principle of rebalancing, which many Bogleheads do.
by Theoretical
Tue Jun 06, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: S&P 600 vs. CRSP Small Cap Index
Replies: 5
Views: 547

Re: S&P 600 vs. CRSP Small Cap Index

I love the S&P 600 but I concur with the use of the CRSP, especially since it's a blend index. As for the other allocation decisions, it'd actually help to see what you want to accomplish and what you have right now (percentages rather than dollars are fine).
by Theoretical
Tue Jun 06, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is mid-cap "the sweet spot"?
Replies: 26
Views: 4271

Re: Why is mid-cap "the sweet spot"?

To me, it's more of a factor of Midcaps not being megacaps that supplies the extra return and risk. The downside is that in an apocalyptic scenario like 2008 or the 1930s, the vast majority of the Microsofts and GEs are going to stick around due to their sheer blue-chippiness. Keep in mind that it's...
by Theoretical
Tue Jun 06, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "What Vanguard Fund Has Beaten Its Category Average 16 Years In A Row?
Replies: 14
Views: 2241

Re: "What Vanguard Fund Has Beaten Its Category Average 16 Years In A Row?

I'm confused; according to Morningstar's page for VTSAX it trailed the category in 2007 by 0.59. tech_arch: Look again (use "Expanded View"): http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=VTSAX&region=usa&culture=en_US Best wishes. Taylor Why is the category ...
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 05, 2017 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 2542

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

And as to which fund, I looked at it from a 100 mile view, rather than digging into factors etc... I liked that the S&P 600 is smaller than CRSP, has a quality component, and is not as susceptible to front-running as the Russell 2000. Yeah, it is definitely a solid index choice. Also nice in ta...
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulators, Reality, and Motiviation to Stay the Course
Replies: 13
Views: 1209

Re: Simulators, Reality, and Motiviation to Stay the Course

I actually think the sims are at their best not in the averages but in the extremes/black swans (good or bad). The ones in the middle are retrospective and, I think an inaccurate picture of safety. I think many many people, especially on this site, have portfolios that have blown way, way past even ...
by Theoretical
Mon Jun 05, 2017 1:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's the difference between a Trust and a Will?
Replies: 24
Views: 1803

Re: What's the difference between a Trust and a Will?

For a Will...the lawyer wins (huge fees.) For a Trust...the lawyer loses (lower fees.) This is very offbase. In fact, it's often the opposite, and most states don't have provisions that automatically add assets to the living trust that got left out. If that happens, you still get probate. In additi...
by Theoretical
Sun Jun 04, 2017 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt
Replies: 40
Views: 2542

Re: S&P 500 vs TSM for Small cap value tilt

Nisiprius: Thank you for that. It sounds to me like I am overthinking things. I feel like I want to have a 30% holding in a SCV and will likely place the rest into a TSM account for peace of mind. I still have to determine where to allocate the other 20% of my portfolio. Looking like maybe a mix of...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 03, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Boglehead approved actively managed funds!
Replies: 28
Views: 2781

Re: Boglehead approved actively managed funds!

Vanguard's quant group has some good stuff:

viewtopic.php?t=206890

I also like the RAFI funds as DFAish without the advisor.

Go to advanced search