Search found 628 matches

by Theoretical
Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Improve the 100% Equity Asset Allocation
Replies: 24
Views: 1694

Re: Improve the 100% Equity Asset Allocation

30 % Total Stock Market Index in Taxable 15% in Small Cap Index in Tax Deferred IRA 15% in Global Small Cap Index in Tax Deferred IRA 10% Consumer Staples Sector Index in Tax Deferred IRA 10% Consumer Discretionary Sector Index in Tax Deferred IRA 10% Healthcare Sector Index in Tax Deferred IRA 10% ...
by Theoretical
Tue Jan 24, 2017 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing EM value options [Emerging Market]
Replies: 35
Views: 2535

Re: Comparing EM value options [Emerging Market]

Look in the annual report under the Statements of Operations. Then divide the Net Expenses-Lending Income by the Net Assets.

For EWX, with the lending, its annual expense ratio is reduced to about 30bp. For EEMS, its ratio goes from 71 to 6. DGS I believe went from 64bp to ~35-40ish.
by Theoretical
Mon Jan 23, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 144
Views: 9629

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

I think the main tweak to the Larry portfolios is that there's too little US and too much EM. 15% US SCV 11% ISV 04% EMV Also, this is Robert T's new preferred portfolio: 08% iShares US Momentum 11% Vanguard MidCap Value 19% Schwab Fundamental US Small Company 17% Powershares RAFI Developed Market N...
by Theoretical
Mon Jan 23, 2017 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen says No to Municipal Bonds
Replies: 21
Views: 2786

Re: David Swensen says No to Municipal Bonds

Unleveraged Treasury futures would be my guess, since they're taxed as 60/40 Long/Short term capital gains. Otherwise, it'd be CDs for the yield or nominal treasuries for the state tax exemption.
by Theoretical
Sun Jan 22, 2017 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for Investing $4M to get 4% Return with Least Risk
Replies: 62
Views: 6167

Re: Advice for Investing $4M to get 4% Return with Least Risk

Thank you all for your input & advice. I had moved most of my investments to cash given the run up of the stock market and the political climate in the country. I intend to work in a structured fashion (as an employee) for another five years and then start consulting and take on projects occasi...
by Theoretical
Sat Jan 21, 2017 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: should I try to replicate total stock market in my 401k with S&P, small, and mid caps?
Replies: 9
Views: 621

Re: should I try to replicate total stock market in my 401k with S&P, small, and mid caps?

DFA small cap is a pretty good deal, especially because it isn't easily front-run and filters the worst garbage out of the small cap world. It's certainly a lot better than a hypothetical Russell 2000 index fund at 10 bp in expenses. I'd just do an 80/20 S&P/DFA for simplicity's sake or hold the...
by Theoretical
Fri Jan 20, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How Much Inflation Protection Do You Need?"
Replies: 7
Views: 1379

Re: "How Much Inflation Protection Do You Need?"

I think inflation or inflation volatility has shown up in the last decade, but it's been the kind that affects accumulators much more than retirees, and that is harder to hedge against. Namely, higher education (and even private schools), health insurance (especially insuring dependent children), ho...
by Theoretical
Fri Jan 20, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Comparing EM value options [Emerging Market]
Replies: 35
Views: 2535

Re: Comparing EM value options [Emerging Market]

Since I have a large taxable account relative to the tax-advantaged space, I use a 50/50 mix of FNDE and DGS, with the DGS being in the tax-advantaged.
by Theoretical
Thu Jan 19, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"
Replies: 21
Views: 2116

Re: "The Year in Alternative Funds: A Bumpy Road With Some Bright Spots"

I'd say they did decently, or even impressively, for what they're doing, especially since most target (fairly or unfairly) T-Bill returns to exceed (.12%). Vanguard Total Bond Market Investor Shares - 2.50% Vanguard Intermediate Treasury Investor Shares - 1.19% Vanguard Short Term Treasury Investor ...
by Theoretical
Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's old "free" TurboTax. Was it really free?
Replies: 11
Views: 1410

Re: Vanguard's old "free" TurboTax. Was it really free?

Usually they do by investing in institutional shares (if big enough).
by Theoretical
Wed Jan 18, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...
Replies: 32
Views: 2779

Re: TIPS are great in "theory." But real world...

I don't get this line of thinking at all. By its very nature, a TIPS is not going to do as well as a nominal bond in times of low inflation or deflation. Its upside shows up when inflation shows up unexpectedly, which has not happened except a bit during 2000-2001 (inflation moved to 4.5-5% for a co...
by Theoretical
Wed Jan 18, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An index isn't an index isn't an index...
Replies: 23
Views: 2410

Re: An index isn't an index isn't an index...

I did some factor regressions on Russell 2K and 2K value funds with the time barriers being origins of the fund to the end of year 2006. 2007 was the first time Russell implemented the sizing buffer zones. The difference is drastic , though the Russell 2000 is now only moderately desirable instead o...
by Theoretical
Tue Jan 17, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An index isn't an index isn't an index...
Replies: 23
Views: 2410

Re: An index isn't an index isn't an index...

Ouch. That's a terrible showing all around.

The really embarrassing one to me is that S&P small growth was only 3 percentage points off CSRP small value in a year when small value beat small growth by almost 16 percentage points.
by Theoretical
Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth
Replies: 17
Views: 1509

Re: VBR higher p/e than VTI & lower growth

It's a different story if you look at cash flows, sales or book. There, there's a pretty significant difference between the large caps and the Small Value. Midcaps on the other hand, are richly valued except among the falling knives.
by Theoretical
Tue Jan 17, 2017 3:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The gulf between MOM fund returns and MOM factor returns
Replies: 30
Views: 1637

Re: The gulf between MOM fund returns and MOM factor returns

Not Larry, but those t-stats mean it's basically noise, especially the investment one.neither is close to statistically significant.
by Theoretical
Mon Jan 16, 2017 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 144
Views: 9629

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

Larry, I was disagreeing with stlutz, not your post. I think you posted as I was writing mine and I didn't check it. Sorry for the confusion.
by Theoretical
Mon Jan 16, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The gulf between MOM fund returns and MOM factor returns
Replies: 30
Views: 1637

Re: The gulf between MOM fund returns and MOM factor returns

What is a good r-squared? Is it 95% or are only the 97-98% actually "good?" Conversely, is an r-squared in the low 90s a bad thing in terms of explanation?
by Theoretical
Mon Jan 16, 2017 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 144
Views: 9629

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

I disagree. From a factor point of view, the Dividend Growth investors are making large, quality and growth investments, and it avoids the speculative growth bubble companies. If you can't handle the volatility of Small Value and emerging markets (many cannot), Then a large-mid quality growth strate...
by Theoretical
Sun Jan 15, 2017 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 144
Views: 9629

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

lack_ey, Thank you. What's your take on the allocations? What's the math behind the 1.0/0.2/0.4 factor exposures? The thing is, I don't understand what "factor diversification" actually means. What gets diversified away by means of factor diversification? Should everybody engage in factor...
by Theoretical
Sun Jan 15, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space
Replies: 59
Views: 3447

Re: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space

Index funds don't: iShares High Yield: http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=HYG SPDR High Yield: http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=JNK The minimal amount of cash/government securities is to cover an ordinary day, not a bad day and definitely not the apocalypse.
by Theoretical
Sat Jan 14, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space
Replies: 59
Views: 3447

Re: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space

Here's where it hurts the investor. Your example is missing that in a liquidity crunch, the next option to purchase a bond literally may not exist (for a lower quality bond) or may not exist at a price you want to pay (high premium for an AAA or treasury. So you end up paying a higher price for qual...
by Theoretical
Sat Jan 14, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?
Replies: 152
Views: 15628

Re: How Much To Tilt To Small Value?

I realize the data from before 1972 is often iffy at best to rely upon, but how would a Low beta/high tilt/high bonds portfolio do in the dark time for bonds, say 1940 to 1982?

Obviously, the low duration of 5 year bonds/treasuries and TIPS makes a big positive difference, but it does seem a risk.
by Theoretical
Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 144
Views: 9629

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

That's a volatility for the ages, or do you have a large bond pile and small equity stake?

Also, that's insane EM exposure.
by Theoretical
Fri Jan 13, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SWSSX Schwab Small-Cap Index Fund®
Replies: 14
Views: 1269

Re: SWSSX Schwab Small-Cap Index Fund®

If you want a mutual fund, I'd use SFSNX. If you look at its index and Scwhab's rules for it, you get much of the benefit of the Russell 2K AND you get an value-tilted index almost tailor-made to exploit the front-running of the Russell 2K. Its only downside is that the stocks in SFSNX/FNDA are larg...
by Theoretical
Fri Jan 13, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 144
Views: 9629

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

Ditto the recommendation for Swedroe's book. Also, see this from Robert T: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7353 who has successfully done exactly what you propose for over a decade.
by Theoretical
Thu Jan 12, 2017 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing only after a market correction
Replies: 99
Views: 6631

Re: Investing only after a market correction

What's the interest rate on the debt? That, I think more than anything, should govern your decision-making.
by Theoretical
Thu Jan 12, 2017 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"
Replies: 45
Views: 3314

Re: "2016 Shows That Factors Are Fickle"

US Large Cap investors from 2000-2010 would sure say that Beta is fickle.
by Theoretical
Thu Jan 12, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space
Replies: 59
Views: 3447

Re: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space

What about a credit barbell with Treasuries/CDs and a small slice of Fallen Angel bonds like ANGL, again with the caveats of buying/selling the ETF against the herd (or at least sideways to it)?
by Theoretical
Wed Jan 11, 2017 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space
Replies: 59
Views: 3447

Re: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space

Maybe this is an argument for a mixed asset bond fund, ala Total Bond, rather than pure funds like Treasuries, Corporates, High Yield, MBS, etc. If you hit a liquidity crisis, your managers can always sell the treasuries first and not get stopped out at bad prices by redemptions. Of course like any...
by Theoretical
Wed Jan 11, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 27
Views: 2868

Re: 2016 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

It was quite a banner year for small and value, especially Value.
by Theoretical
Sun Jan 08, 2017 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emergency fund of a different kind [funds held outside of US]
Replies: 53
Views: 2152

Re: Emergency fund of a different kind [funds held outside of US]

Here's the catch with all of this. The IRS is one of the only tax agencies with global jurisdiction over US citizens and resident aliens. The foreign financial account reporting requirements are onerous and full of pitfalls that can make screwing up a 401k rollover seem mild.
by Theoretical
Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?
Replies: 89
Views: 5742

Re: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?

Question:

Were you invested in Emerging Markets starting in November of 2015 or earlier? If not, why not?
by Theoretical
Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?
Replies: 89
Views: 5742

Re: I am timing the market. Why am I wrong?

Last April, deciding that the market was in a significantly overvalued state I decided to go from nearly 100% invested to nearly 0% invested. This is not investing. This is gambling on the roulette wheel where you are putting everything on Red 53. I see lots of these threads and marvel at the ping-...
by Theoretical
Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?
Replies: 51
Views: 2560

Re: Are Commodities Still a Good Portfolio Diversifier?

I think Larry Swedroe has made the point that commodities alone don't provide much, but harmonize well with extending bond duration to take more term risk.
by Theoretical
Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: difference between DFE and DLS
Replies: 3
Views: 396

Re: difference between DFE and DLS

DFE is Europe. DLS is all developed. I'd recommend Powershares Fundamental International Small-Mid (PDN) or Schwab's Fundamental International Small Cap (FNDC), with PDN being the best overall and FNDC being ideal for a taxable account. Both have many more companies and aren't limited to divided pay...
by Theoretical
Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on a Bogle quote
Replies: 29
Views: 2355

Re: Thoughts on a Bogle quote

You've held it for five years during some major outperformance of the US market. Why change now? That's like selling low and buying high in the absence of an additional reason.
by Theoretical
Thu Jan 05, 2017 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 245
Views: 27149

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Something important for younger folks to consider is that you're playing with fire if you retire at 40-45 and stop working altogether. You lose potentially both Social Security and Medicare AND it wasn't until a few years ago that you even had things like High Risk pool options for those with chroni...
by Theoretical
Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity/iShares version of VNQ ?
Replies: 12
Views: 561

Re: Fidelity/iShares version of VNQ ?

I'm really partial to the iShares Global REIT ETF REET. ER of .14%, Nearly $250M in AUM, and it includes all global non-mortgage REITs as a pure asset class. It's the TSM of the REIT world, from what I can tell.
by Theoretical
Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein on Bonds...wow
Replies: 31
Views: 4508

Re: Bernstein on Bonds...wow

You could get them direct from TreasuryDirect or just buy them for free (auctions) at Fidelity. As for CD's, their fees are cheap at $1/$1000 ($1/bond).
by Theoretical
Tue Jan 03, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 245
Views: 27149

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

My numbers are based on no Social Security, no Medicare, and the fact that any kids we have will likely enjoy some of my medical fun at an early age (at least my wife doesn't have that in her family background) I fully expect Medicare and Social Security to be means tested at some point, or to be ve...
by Theoretical
Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whats your number to walk away?
Replies: 245
Views: 27149

Re: Whats your number to walk away?

Mostly shooting from my hip here: $10 million in today's dollars and us being on the "wrong side" of 45 (31 and 25 now). Every ten years until 65, the number drops by about 3 million. Anything before then is socially silly (as in literally being disconnected from peers). My family has lots...
by Theoretical
Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle worried Vanguard is getting too big
Replies: 68
Views: 11752

Re: Bogle worried Vanguard is getting too big

Also, as to the too big, I think for equities in particular, if a split in control (say antitrust) was to happen, it should be where total market funds (and 80%+ broad large cap funds like the S&P 500 or EAFE or MSCI Emerging) have to be independently operated and controlled from any other funds...
by Theoretical
Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle worried Vanguard is getting too big
Replies: 68
Views: 11752

Re: Bogle worried Vanguard is getting too big

It's clear that as the % of index funds increases, there will be more opportunities for active traders. No one really knows what % that is though. There's no doubt the high frequency firms and other hedge funds run arbitrage schemes against the index funds. This is a huge problem for some ETFs and ...
by Theoretical
Mon Jan 02, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying SCV with MTUM: yea or nay?
Replies: 29
Views: 1524

Re: Diversifying SCV with MTUM: yea or nay?

I think if you were going to go all out for momentum, you'd do something like a Beta+quality+momentum strategy in the mid-large domains with maybe a smalller slice of a MOM neutral SCV like IJS or the DFA funds to lessen the negative Small and value loads. Momentum and AQR's (sector neutral) definit...
by Theoretical
Thu Dec 29, 2016 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR Relaxed Constraint Equity Funds
Replies: 26
Views: 2283

Re: AQR Relaxed Constraint Equity Funds

I'm actually surprised some of AQR's more exotic funds aren't closed-end funds rather than open mutual funds.
by Theoretical
Wed Dec 28, 2016 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected returns 2017-2047
Replies: 30
Views: 2886

Re: Expected returns 2017-2047

Bad: Japan for a foreign investor - negative real

Ok: 3% real

Awesome: 6% real
by Theoretical
Wed Dec 28, 2016 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?
Replies: 168
Views: 8683

Re: 100% TIPS and 0% in Nominal Bonds?

What about doing a split of TIPS and Nominal Brokered CDs? That way you hedge your bets on whether inflation is higher or lower than expected, and get the retail investor-only advantage of CD rates.
by Theoretical
Fri Dec 23, 2016 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a "standard" Small Cap tilt portfolio
Replies: 46
Views: 4546

Re: What is a "standard" Small Cap tilt portfolio

Rick Ferri has at times suggested 25 - 33% of domestic stocks in small-cap value, and the remainder in total stock market. This is what I do. I think Rick Ferri has even mentioned it in one of his many many threads on this website. Because I want the SCV factor and I also want to minimize fees, I u...
by Theoretical
Thu Dec 22, 2016 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fortune Article - Vanguard Flexes Its Muscle
Replies: 43
Views: 5369

Re: Fortune Article - Vanguard Flexes Its Muscle

Can you please explain this Power of Attorney thing? I don't have any brokerage accounts at Vanguard directly but do have Vanguard funds in IRAs at other institutions. I know the IRAs we have at Scottrade has some "boiler plate paperwork" that we had to sign. I also know my IRA is not a p...
by Theoretical
Thu Dec 22, 2016 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fortune Article - Vanguard Flexes Its Muscle
Replies: 43
Views: 5369

Re: Fortune Article - Vanguard Flexes Its Muscle

Probably the most disturbing part was the comment about them having "good technology" when many here think they are way behind. Are they secure against cyber attacks and hacking? How does the lost cost mentality effect this security issue? Is their big size making things crazy to manage f...

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