Search found 1504 matches

by Theoretical
Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Put options vs treasuries
Replies: 24
Views: 1491

Re: PPUT

Cambria's TAIL ETF is based on buying a ladder of out of the money puts and investing the rest in treasuries. It's done extremely well this year after the usual expected losses in other good years. I think if long-term interest rates remain negative in real dollar terms, puts vs. treasury bonds is a...
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 11, 2020 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What single individual stock would you buy?
Replies: 133
Views: 10301

Re: What single individual stock would you buy?

1 stock: None. Not even Berkshire. Why, because owning stock in a single company has far too much idiosyncratic risk, insider knowledge, and simple luck, and the usual fraud risks involved. Now if I was assembling some microcap value mini-fund based on quant measures, then I'd be willing to take tha...
by Theoretical
Fri Apr 03, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another way a crash manifests itself
Replies: 20
Views: 1839

Re: Another way a crash manifests itself

I think the challenge we're in right now is that you've got this truly massive deflationary chasm that just appears of an unknown depth, breadth and unprecedented speed, where it's also unknown what the shape of the curve is much deeper it will get and what timetable has it start getting filled back...
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 29, 2020 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Providers Postponing Rebalance
Replies: 15
Views: 1366

Re: Index Providers Postponing Rebalance

It will be interesting to see what the RAFI indexes do. The rebalance month is a day in March, which could be veeewwwy interesting for the Fundamental Index funds. Back in 2009, I think the day just happened to be March 8 or 9, which was spectacular good luck. One thing is going to be for sure thoug...
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a risk of US currency collapse with trillion-dollar stimulus?
Replies: 28
Views: 2827

Re: Is there a risk of US currency collapse with trillion-dollar stimulus?

If it was a 20 Trillion stimulus or maybe a 100 trillion stimulus, then sure, the world would freak out. 2 trillion is a drop in the bucket.
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid temptation of Stock Picking during market crash
Replies: 48
Views: 2858

Re: How to avoid temptation of Stock Picking during market crash

Here's a key point: if you aren't regularly doing this as part of your AA, then you're going to be a lucky novice at best. My mother was taught how to be a ruthless bottom-feeder by her dad and she's continued to be quite successful at it over the years, including making some absolute killings with ...
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 24, 2020 1:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fallen Angel junk bonds
Replies: 15
Views: 1520

Re: Fallen Angel junk bonds

Fallen angels are interesting concepts, because you become more diversified as the economy hits the trash bin because more decent and good companies fall on hard times, leading to downgrades and falling into junk status. Since many of them will ultimately survive, you get the upside of their re-rati...
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: do people TLH even if there is no loss but it’s close?
Replies: 9
Views: 587

Re: do people TLH even if there is no loss but it’s close?

Minor tax gain harvesting can be useful to consolidate positions and simplify a bunch of small lots or incomplete previous TLHing.
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Int SCV etfs in danger of closing ?
Replies: 5
Views: 568

Re: Are Int SCV etfs in danger of closing ?

Two things. It literally just got started as a fund and the other is that it's explicitly targeting the DFA crowd at a lower cost. I suspect their business plan is to stick around for awhile to accumulate assets.
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 14, 2020 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some good books on market crashes?
Replies: 8
Views: 344

Re: What are some good books on market crashes?

https://www.amazon.com/Anatomy-Bear-Les ... 1906659354

This one is good because it uses a lot of primary source newspaper articles and headlines superimposed over various stock market crashes. It's pretty interesting.
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 10, 2020 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Treasury Bonds no longer a safe haven w/ 0% interest rates
Replies: 57
Views: 4068

Re: Are Treasury Bonds no longer a safe haven w/ 0% interest rates

In the bond world, a safe haven is often seen as a fount of liquidity in illiquid, frozen times. This is why countries with huge amounts of sovereign debt and stable governments (Japan and USA) are the big safe havens. Less liquid but still ultrasafe are places like Switzerland and Germany that may ...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 07, 2020 2:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rethinking Small-Mid Tilt
Replies: 18
Views: 1164

Re: Rethinking Small-Mid Tilt

1 year means nothing at all. 10 years means nothing for investing history as a whole, but might mean quite a bit for your particular situation. 30 years is where it starts to get less noisy in history, but that's not much comfort. It's much more important to have and implement a consistent strategy,...
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142848

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

Index selection matters a lot: I have 30% portfolio in IVOV (Vanguard S&P 400 Mid-cap Value ETF) and VIOV (Vanguard S&P 600 Small-cap Value ETF). I believe the advantage of S&P 400 & 600 Value indices over Russell or CRSP indices is specifically quality screening in parent indices S&P 400/600, foll...
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142848

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

Concur. All Taylor is saying is that he recommends making a permanent switch, regardless of the timing of the move.
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 04, 2020 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142848

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

The big loser on RZV is a heavy weighting to energy and consumer cyclical. Office depot and oil stocks are not doing well.
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142848

Re: [Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!]

If you look only at the morningstar style box, the Avantis funds don't paint a great picture. If you look at their statistics and their methodology, what the value+profitability portfolio is doing will always have deep value but it will also have ultra-profitable stocks that tilts it a bit closer to...
by Theoretical
Sun Feb 23, 2020 9:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 19281
Views: 2676474

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

**ding**ding** (overhead chime sound) Fasten your seatbelts - turbulence ahead. I have a VERY fat emergency fund (3X annual). Is anyone besides me thinking about buying in IF the market falls 10-15% this week? I know... "don't time the market".... I just hate to miss a good sale. :D Wow - as I type...
by Theoretical
Fri Feb 14, 2020 1:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?
Replies: 123
Views: 8596

Re: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?

MFTNX is a managed futures fund. It's not a bear market fund. It can and has made a whole lot of money in good years as well as bad ones. It's trend-following (aka time-series momentum) across stock index futures, interest rate futures, currencies, and commodities futures. It also has a 5% slug of ...
by Theoretical
Mon Feb 10, 2020 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?
Replies: 123
Views: 8596

Re: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?

MFTNX is a managed futures fund. It's not a bear market fund. It can and has made a whole lot of money in good years as well as bad ones. It's trend-following (aka time-series momentum) across stock index futures, interest rate futures, currencies, and commodities futures. It also has a 5% slug of t...
by Theoretical
Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?
Replies: 123
Views: 8596

Re: What is the highest expense ratio you willingly pay?

I've got a fair bit in several managed futures funds, so I've got a stronger stomach for this. The highest I'm willing to pay is 1.2% and a 25% performance fee for Arrow Managed Futures (MFTNX), which uses the full volatility Dunn Capital Strategy (a 0/25% structure). The reason: It's a 100% systema...
by Theoretical
Wed Jan 29, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Deleted]
Replies: 50
Views: 8676

Re: Tail Risk Protection

Food for thought: a tail risk hedge should always be tailored and specific. A generalist hedge (S&P 500 puts for an ordinary investor with no specialized exposure) will have the drag of insurance and only be a matter of luck whether the payoffs outweigh the cost drag. The risks being targeted tend t...
by Theoretical
Sun Jan 26, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Implications of (US) pension funding deficit?
Replies: 18
Views: 1447

Re: Implications of (US) pension funding deficit?

What I suspect you’ll also see is some sucker investment, possibly even including Madoff-like or MBS fraud that ensnares multiple desperate pension plans, Illinois’s as possibly the worst since its payouts are constitutionally guaranteed. More subtle is that you could see a massive increase in high ...
by Theoretical
Fri Jan 24, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142848

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

RZV is starting to hit Russian stock market earnings valuations.
by Theoretical
Tue Jan 21, 2020 10:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1792
Views: 142848

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

For what it’s worth, the S&P 600 Pure Value EYF has a trailing PE of 7 And the S&P 400 pure value is like 7.4. Even forward, it’s in the 10s. That’s Emerging Markets Value Winter 2016 territory.
by Theoretical
Mon Jan 20, 2020 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is home ownership a whole life policy?
Replies: 42
Views: 3220

Re: Is home ownership a whole life policy?

Here on this forum, whole life policies are considered satanic, since (a) they couple together (otherwise unrelated) investment and life insurance and (b) they pay the agent a big fee. Similarly, home ownership couples investment to housing and has large expenses when buying and selling. So, how is...
by Theoretical
Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you a closet market-timer?
Replies: 134
Views: 9819

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

I have a certain "average" return I am hoping to achieve over time, which happens to be 7.25%. This is based on historical returns for my AA (which I KNOW is not necessarily indicative of future return, but it's what I am targeting). If I happen to over-achieve that return mid-year, I happily take ...
by Theoretical
Wed Jan 15, 2020 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: strong role model books for 8 YO girl
Replies: 53
Views: 3449

Re: strong role model books for 8 YO girl

Number the Stars by Lois Lowry is written to about a 10 yr old level, but is a remarkable book about some remarkable historical people.
by Theoretical
Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 1524
Views: 122846

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

A lot of professional managed futures funds have multiple systems and multiple entry and exit points, such that if a given position is 50 basis points, there might be 3 different systems with 2-3 entry/exit points apiece, allowing for spinning up and winding down particular positions.
by Theoretical
Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With $0 commissions, I'm thinking of creating true small-value index. Please talk me out of it
Replies: 21
Views: 2093

Re: With $0 commissions, I'm thinking of creating true small-value index. Please talk me out of it

Honestly, I’d just buy RZV and possibly also Franklin’s Microcap Value fund (strict quant non-index) or Aegis Value (extreme micro and cigar-butt value run by a strict Fama-French manager) and call it a day. I think you could do this but would need some serious Excel-fu to make it a low-maintenance ...
by Theoretical
Tue Dec 31, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decade of Debt. Market fueled by debt.
Replies: 56
Views: 4804

Re: Decade of Debt. Market fueled by debt.

I think the only actionable things are to evaluate if and how a particular asset class may have changed due to conditions. For example, Dodd-Frank turned financial institution bonds into quasi-stock if the bank fails or is loaded with toxic assets (oversimplification). The other factor is that credi...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 27, 2019 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs
Replies: 249
Views: 29752

Re: Ex DFA CIO launches competitor which will also have ETFs

That explicitly ISV fund could get a bunch of assets quickly if it undercuts DFA.
by Theoretical
Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest
Replies: 31
Views: 2158

Re: SCV tilt advocates, please suggest a percentage for me to use in a backtest

I think 25/25/50 is about right. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1999&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&endDate=06%2F18%2F2019&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=...
by Theoretical
Mon May 20, 2019 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance
Replies: 110
Views: 6064

Re: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance

It's not a perfect correlation, but there are retail funds that use a swap arrangement to access the underlying hedge/CTA in the managed futures space. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2019&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&e...
by Theoretical
Mon May 13, 2019 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it
Replies: 151
Views: 12745

Re: Imperfect market timing still works -- if you stick with it

This is a good resource: https://www.toptradersunplugged.com/res ... ket-score/

It's oriented towards a traditional managed futures type trend following portfolio, and it's run by a guy who works at one of the earliest Managed Futures shops - Dunn Capital, with about a 40 year history.
by Theoretical
Sun Apr 07, 2019 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans
Replies: 46
Views: 5493

Re: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans

Oh sure, I quite agree that they're not truly AAA (or are only AAA in relation to the class as a whole). My concern is that AAA ends up looking more like A- or even BBB+, A as BB and so on down the line, in multiple states at the same time, precisely because the demographic issues are nationwide due...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans
Replies: 46
Views: 5493

Re: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans

My other concern is that unquestionably safe bonds from municipalities with none of the problems of their mismanaged/overdrawn municipalities and regions are vulnerable to things like tax increases or schemes that change the underlying quality of the municipality, especially if its a General obliga...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Multifactor Funds
Replies: 28
Views: 3396

Re: The Case for Multifactor Funds

I have a question about Multifactor Funds. How are the stocks selected? For example, if a single fund is aiming at 4 factors, do they have 1/4 of their assets in each factor? I have seen one fund that targets multiple factors with a stock that is large caps and not valuey, but fits into the quality...
by Theoretical
Wed Apr 03, 2019 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans
Replies: 46
Views: 5493

Re: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans

My other concern is that unquestionably safe bonds from municipalities with none of the problems of their mismanaged/overdrawn municipalities and regions are vulnerable to things like tax increases or schemes that change the underlying quality of the municipality, especially if its a General obligat...
by Theoretical
Tue Apr 02, 2019 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans
Replies: 46
Views: 5493

Re: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans

https://www.mercatus.org/statefiscalrankings

This is a great resource for evaluating the fiscal health of various states.
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Fund/ETF for Diversified Commodities Today...
Replies: 15
Views: 1789

Re: Best Fund/ETF for Diversified Commodities Today...

One thing I think that's a bit of an issue with commodities is that every single future has an inherently long and short side, unlike a stock or bond, which can have a short, but does not have to in order to exist. Therefore, it's not going to have the same characteristics as a stock or bond fund. T...
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard Patented a Way to Avoid Taxes on Mutual Funds"
Replies: 140
Views: 10685

Re: How ETFs use "Heartbeats" to wash-out gains

They would hedge with futures contracts to a near-net 0 exposure, more or less, while they have the holdings.

It’s harder for specialized or sector funds, but a perfect fit isn’t that crucial.
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market timers thread
Replies: 296
Views: 23100

Re: Market timers thread

Something else that’s a factor is that market timing as talked about as a feeling, perception or “it can’t go lower/higher” is ultimately a completely discretionary form of investing that is extremely likely to underperform simply because of the amount of emotion involved, even if the signals were 1...
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 26, 2019 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DGS: Own it? Opinions on it? [WisdomTree Emerging Mkts SmallCap Dividend]
Replies: 65
Views: 5734

Re: DGS: Own it? Opinions on it? [WisdomTree Emerging Mkts SmallCap Dividend]

In my view, the other big thing DGS brings to the table, especially if paired with a fundamental ETF like FNDE/PXH is much lower concentration and fewer sector bets, with some country weighting adjustments. The other thing is that you basically can’t measure the factors a la fama French with the com...
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 229
Views: 42202

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Arrow Managed Futures Class I (Dunn WMA) - MFTNX +1.92%

Equinox Chesapeake Strategy Class I - EQCHX -0.45%

Nataxis Managed Futures Class A - AMFAX - -.11
by Theoretical
Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Fidelity Money Market Account to Hold Cash?
Replies: 56
Views: 22917

Re: Best Fidelity Money Market Account to Hold Cash?

If you need the full 30K to be a true cash withdrawal, then SPRXX is really the only choice. In a mutual fund wrapper (next day availability), use FCONX - mostly ultrashort corporate bonds or take some duration risk and use the short term bond mutual fund with a duration around 2 years. If you can s...
by Theoretical
Mon Mar 11, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Lump Sum ($1M) into an ETF at Once
Replies: 37
Views: 3686

Re: Large Lump Sum ($1M) into an ETF at Once

This may be a time when you want to do a broker assisted transaction, because a better execution will more than make up for potential slippage.

If you self execute, you should do it in the last hour of trading when liquidity is highest.
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nationwide financial breakdowns - they can't happen in the US, can they?
Replies: 11
Views: 2120

Re: Nationwide financial breakdowns - they can't happen in the US, can they?

Yes it definitely could. Imagine if the reactions and interventions of the Fed and Treasury in 2008 freaked the market out instead of calming them. Or if they’d done very little and that blew up too. We might still be digging out of that mess 10 years later. Or for an older example, what if Volckeri...
by Theoretical
Sun Mar 10, 2019 12:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After ten years, most of the record of the crash is gone
Replies: 41
Views: 6692

Re: After ten years, most of the record of the crash is gone

“Exciting returns” and bonds are what got the financial crisis going (more complicated I know but it’s a part) At the end of the day, you’re using a limited upside instrument in conjunction with an unlimited up and downside instrument (stocks), so you don’t want your bonds to also be hemorrhaging wh...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.
Replies: 109
Views: 8432

Re: My name is _____, & I am a MARKET TIMER.

The real key to investing, in my opinion, has less to do with a chosen strategy so much as it does with how you execute. Namely, are you systematic or discretionary? Are you following the rules for your portfolio or shifting around based on the news and/or emotions? Passive definitely is a systemati...