Search found 1252 matches

by Theoretical
Sun Jun 17, 2018 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?
Replies: 36
Views: 3342

Re: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?

Retail investors have access to 100% FDIC insured savings accounts (duration of 0) with interest rates that on the highest end rival 3 month t-bills. The CD liquidity premium is also very well known and while not as strong as it was last year or even before, they still gives a premium over treasurie...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 16, 2018 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth
Replies: 58
Views: 8493

Re: Oh my! Cardone says we need $10m net worth

I think what he's describing is analagous to Nassim Taleb's "f- you money" where you just don't have to worry about money anymore to live remotely comfortably. The real problem is that he's clearly selling his strategies by saying the only two options are a bank account earning nothing or illiquid a...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20163

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Cash / short term fixed income. It's not really that bonds are bad, it's more that he doesn't like the risk/return characteristics of the intermediate and longer term issues. Just shorten the duration of the bond portion of your portfolio if you are really concerned, but abandoning fixed income ent...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20163

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Why buy bonds when CD's are beating or at least very near bnd returns? I just can not understand why locking in such a low yield is a good idea? If interested rates go up you lose even more. How is a brokered CD any different than buying a Treasury bill or note except for the fact that a Treasury i...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20163

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

You sound like the person who picks one or two individual stocks and gets a good return, and declares stock picking is a good low-effort activity that doesn't take much effort to get right. Of course some people do that and feel that way. But you live in an extremely atypical world where "most" of ...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?
Replies: 141
Views: 20163

Re: Buffett says Bonds are a terrible investment now. What should we invest in besides stocks?

Cash / short term fixed income. It's not really that bonds are bad, it's more that he doesn't like the risk/return characteristics of the intermediate and longer term issues. Just shorten the duration of the bond portion of your portfolio if you are really concerned, but abandoning fixed income ent...
by Theoretical
Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in idea with SCV and leverage..
Replies: 23
Views: 1737

Re: in idea with SCV and leverage..

here's one for example.. run a pure 100% SCV, when it hits a 35% downfall, leverage in at ... lets just say 20%, it hits down to 40-50, you leverage in again to 50%, this of course is betting we don't hit a depression, then you get wiped out, game over.. but with this theory, you cannot know the fu...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: work one more year or attend law school
Replies: 67
Views: 5002

Re: work one more year or attend law school

What are the conditions to KEEP the full ride scholarships at the T10 law schools? I've seen both kinds in the local law schools, some where you have to screw up to lose it (keep a B average at a school with a B+ curve) and others where it's insanely hard to keep and where even bad luck can cost you...
by Theoretical
Sat Jun 02, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Gift tax exclusion - gifting to multiple people who then gift to one person?
Replies: 19
Views: 1848

Re: Gift tax exclusion - gifting to multiple people who then gift to one person?

If someone wants to gift $150k to one person, he would need to report it because it is in excess of $15k. But, could that person gift to 10 different people $15k each, and then those people immediately turn around and gift $15k to person X, and then the gift falls within the exclusion limit? Or is ...
by Theoretical
Wed May 30, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What diversification am I getting?
Replies: 13
Views: 1206

Re: What diversification am I getting?

Thanks all for their inputs. (1) I computed the same correlations with monthly averaging. No significant differences (as was expected) (2) During the financial crisis, the investment returns in India and China were good - I was expecting (hoping) that the the Vanguard Emerging Markets fund would ha...
by Theoretical
Wed May 30, 2018 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What diversification am I getting?
Replies: 13
Views: 1206

Re: What diversification am I getting?

The other factor is that you have not seen a period with viable international stock funds in a major US inflationary environment. But there, it's more a factor of currency than it is returns. It's why Bill Bernstein has made the strong deep risk argument for unhedged international stocks as an infla...
by Theoretical
Wed May 30, 2018 12:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index fund investing requires active management
Replies: 10
Views: 2202

Re: Index fund investing requires active management

I wonder how much effort and cost could be saved if they were not so tightly bound to the index? DFA's funds, which do exactly that, have higher expense ratios than Vanguard's index funds. Low, but definitely higher. Typically in 0.30% territory for asset subclasses where Vanguard's, and others' in...
by Theoretical
Wed May 23, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?
Replies: 13
Views: 1010

Re: Why do "traditional slice-and-dice" portfolios split 50/50 between value and blend?

I think in its headier (lower AUM) days, DFA may have provided a far deeper tilt with tracking error, so where you might have done half small value and half small blend in the past, ishares S&P 600 Value alone gets you there now in one fund. Also, nowadays, it's basically a DFA Core fund or a RAFI f...
by Theoretical
Sun May 20, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3925

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

I wonder if corporates are a better diversifier for a heavy growth/quality tilt. They're definitely not for value, though I think the structure of Fallen Angel indexes means they could be uniquely suited to harvest value in bonds (a vast array of good bonds get degraded in the crisis and then spring...
by Theoretical
Fri May 18, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 13872

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

@Dead Man Walking I agree with you that some of these are hard to implement apart from an advisor, though some of the alts do have mutual fund availability or alternatives to the AQR universe. For Alt Lending, there's a few other Interval funds that may be available without an advisor. Insurance Lin...
by Theoretical
Mon May 14, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 42
Views: 6156

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

I agree with Nedsaid (like usual). "I don't think value is going away anytime soon". Here are a couple of fun little article's for your reading enjoyment. http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013/12/16/the-fun-thing-about-blue-chip-dividend-stocks/ http://theconservativeincomeinvestor.com/2013...
by Theoretical
Sun May 13, 2018 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New inflation-protected ETF launches: iShares Inflation Hedged Corporate Bond ETF (LQDI)
Replies: 27
Views: 2317

Re: New inflation-protected ETF launches: iShares Inflation Hedged Corporate Bond ETF (LQDI)

For long-term inflation as a pure play, there's also this: http://www.proshares.com/funds/rinf.html. It's long 30 year TIPS and short 30 year treasury futures
by Theoretical
Sun May 13, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GINDX Index Plus Fund -- An Index Hedge Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1544

Re: GINDX Index Plus Fund -- An Index Hedge Fund

However, just for laughs, I also ran portfolio 3, yellow, which is the same strategy but using Total Bond instead of the market neutral category average. Over this time period etc. it would have been considerably better than using market neutral. This is actually where the PIMCO Stocks Plus and RAE...
by Theoretical
Thu May 10, 2018 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?
Replies: 195
Views: 41785

Re: www.portfoliocharts.com ... "The Coolest Portfolio Tool on the Web"?

I think DLS (and DGS) work because it's not a standard high dividend fund. Instead it is weighted by the total dividends paid, subject to the market cap limit (bottom 10%). So it's a fundamental index that basically works as a shareholder yield weighted fund, especially since buybacks aren't common ...
by Theoretical
Thu May 10, 2018 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GINDX Index Plus Fund -- An Index Hedge Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1544

Re: GINDX Index Plus Fund -- An Index Hedge Fund

Nisiprius, could you run the numbers like this to model the fund as it's structured:

100% VFINX
90% Market Neutral
-90% Cashx
by Theoretical
Sat May 05, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing is more like poker than chess
Replies: 91
Views: 6516

Re: Investing is more like poker than chess

I listened to a podcast she did, and the main perspective I got was that pro poker is all about making sound decisions with limited information and thinking in terms of probability rather than certainty when it comes to decisions. It was also about the behavior problems that Coke when people take to...
by Theoretical
Fri May 04, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 163
Views: 18978

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

If you listen to their audio interviews and discussions, they view the small size factor as a mix of value and relative liquidity. So it's a factor rather than market cap approach to the historical size premium.
by Theoretical
Fri May 04, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Emerging Market Flaws
Replies: 5
Views: 1044

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Emerging Market Flaws

PXH was also horribly implemented until something like 2013-14, with massive tracking error caused by its sampling methodology.
by Theoretical
Fri May 04, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors In Fixed Income
Replies: 30
Views: 2748

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors In Fixed Income

I think for retail investors, cost in the implementation will exceed any benefits, especially because there are retail only products where the consumer has an advantage over institutions: high yield savings accounts and FDIC insurance for CDs and the accounts, along with the benefits available to op...
by Theoretical
Thu May 03, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 173
Views: 14992

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

Bogleheads - I am curious how this asset class would respond during extend and deep periods of market trauma such as a financial crisis. The role of bonds in an investment portfolio is to provide safety and income. Investors need bonds the most during market stress. The question is would internatio...
by Theoretical
Wed May 02, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 173
Views: 14992

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

To me, it is all about the numbers. The yields suck on int'l bonds. The history of returns on int'l bonds (developed) suck. That huge sucking sound you hear, it is all the yield you are giving up by buying int'l bonds. No thanks. I'll stick with the US Total Bond market. Am I biased? Perhaps. But t...
by Theoretical
Tue May 01, 2018 6:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 163
Views: 18978

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

A 50-50 FNDE/DGS split really neutralizes the extreme sector and country tilts Of FNDE, while remaining heavily Value.
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 7272

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

I would not be surprised if an Interval fund emerged in a few years that directly owned and managed real estate, where the fundholders are a particular class of ownership with rights to both the property management fees and the capital appreciation. Actual ownership is special, but I think financial...
by Theoretical
Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why even hold bonds?
Replies: 19
Views: 2325

Re: Why even hold bonds?

I'm a bit confused. As far as I know, bonds generally yield somewhere around 0% return after inflation, and there are risks associated with bonds that shouldn't be overlooked. Aren't there investments that are about as volatile as bonds and still offer the same or higher returns? On the top of my h...
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 163
Views: 18978

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

Re: the expense ratio and perspective:

It's .13%, and for $7.5 million in assets, that is $9750 in fees per year. That is remarkably low cost.
by Theoretical
Fri Apr 27, 2018 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting Int'l Small Stocks => revisiting data sources
Replies: 13
Views: 1720

Re: Backtesting Int'l Small Stocks => revisiting data sources

I like the consistency this would bring to the table, especially the fact it is extremely hard to invest in truly small international stocks as a US investor without a lot of midcaps.
by Theoretical
Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 35
Views: 5074

Re: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It

One thing I have thought about recently is that I wonder if there is a recency bias against the credit premium with most of the data being for a period of falling rates and Volkerized inflation. Namely that while corporate bonds will lose value from rising rates, their ability to pay on their fixed ...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 23, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non-profit needs a high-interest savings account... advice needed
Replies: 5
Views: 492

Re: Non-profit needs a high-interest savings account... advice needed

If you want dribs and drabs, then your best bet is the Fidelity Conservative Income Fund, FCONX. It's very conservatively managed, with an SEC yield of 1.8% after ER (.35 is cheaper than most money markets) and a duration of .16 (much lower than VG's ultrashort). There's no redemption restrictions o...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 23, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Non-profit needs a high-interest savings account... advice needed
Replies: 5
Views: 492

Re: Non-profit needs a high-interest savings account... advice needed

Use a money market fund or ultrashort bond fund. Or you can DIY it by rolling t-bills, with say a 1-6 or 1-12 t-bill ladder. Savings accounts are one of the few retail investor advantages.
by Theoretical
Wed Apr 18, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 5763

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

...The raison d'etre of CTAs (commodity trading advisors, i.e. managed futures) has always been crisis alpha... Well, look at the chart. Both the index and the category average existed in 2008-2009. What do you mean by "crisis alpha?" If you mean that they stayed level instead of plunging in 2008-2...
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 5763

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

Something else about alternatives is that while you may not be able to determine in advance funds that will do well, you most certainly CAN determine that funds that are on shaky ground or are going to be terrible investments: Examples: 1. 2%/20% hedge fund nonsense or 3% fees 2. Something with extr...
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 134
Views: 9437

Re: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Also, road, school, water & sewer, and other essential infrastructure type revenue bonds are very good choices as well.
by Theoretical
Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large cap ETF with negative cash flow growth
Replies: 2
Views: 316

Re: Large cap ETF with negative cash flow growth

Not necessarily. What you've listed is a deep value ETF. If Value is what you're wanting, that one has it in spades.
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 07, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 16118

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

The other concern, as someone open to these alts, I have with respect to the Stone Ridge products is that I really do not think the retail investors are getting nearly the bang for their buck they should for the serious liquidity sacrifice they're making in an interval fund structure. This is especi...
by Theoretical
Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 16118

Re: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

Shortening duration into cash (money market) would be ex-ante smart if it we did face rising rates and inflation.

Whether it ends up being the right call is another thing entirely.
by Theoretical
Fri Apr 06, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein, new podcast
Replies: 56
Views: 6273

Re: Bill Bernstein, new podcast

The 1940s underperformance was because the government capped interest rates in the wake of post-WWII inflation. It was an artificial cap. Is it important that the cap was artificial? Investors in T bills lost real value. We’re in a different time now and perhaps a rate cap is unlikely. But... we’re...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Portfolio for High Net Worth Individuals - Different Rules?
Replies: 67
Views: 7950

Re: Bond Portfolio for High Net Worth Individuals - Different Rules?

I had lunch with a wealthy older guy this week. He's a retired lawyer and MBA. What he does and advises is 2 years expenses in cash and 100% of the rest in a S&P 500 fund. "No bonds?" I asked. "No bonds," he confirmed. He has non-stock market investments, too, though. I don't know what percentage o...
by Theoretical
Thu Apr 05, 2018 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein, new podcast
Replies: 56
Views: 6273

Re: Bill Bernstein, new podcast

How exactly are t-bills a risky asset long-term, when they historically have kept up with inflation? There's no guarantee they will keep up with inflation, unlike TIPS. And have they really tracked inflation that well in the past? It looks like they fell behind quite a bit in the 40s, a little in t...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 02, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?
Replies: 41
Views: 3749

Re: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?

Also, everyone and their dog has been piling into them, so they're unusually expensive stocks right now. In general, don't expect stocks of any type to help you in a recession. They may offset some of the worst losses, but even the hallmark example small value still had a big decline in 2002. Stocks...
by Theoretical
Mon Apr 02, 2018 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts
Replies: 22
Views: 3048

Re: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts

For options that retail investors can access: Columbia Alternative Beta, Class A (NTF/Load Waived at Fidelity) - CLAAX - (0.5%) Janus Henderson Diversified Alternatives, Class T (NTF/Load Waived at Fidelity, Ameritrade, and Schwab) - JDATX - +0.2% Goldman Sachs Alternative Premia Fund - (NTF/Load Wa...
by Theoretical
Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds and WSJ article.
Replies: 12
Views: 1589

Re: Muni bonds and WSJ article.

I agree to a point, but you really need several hundred thousand in the bond portion in taxable to go individual OR you do something like 50-50 muni fund and several $10-15K blocks to amp up the overall credit quality, but you really have to be only buying at new issue and having no intention to sel...
by Theoretical
Fri Mar 30, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10858

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

jhfenton wrote:
Fri Mar 30, 2018 6:56 pm
It's an argument. At least one person I respect makes it.

I find it completely unconvincing.
Ditto.

Honda, Toyota, Sony, and etc... all had enormous international exposure while being Japanese companies. It has not worked out too well for Japan only investors by the same logic.
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Muni bonds and WSJ article.
Replies: 12
Views: 1589

Re: Muni bonds and WSJ article.

This is where market cap bond weighting becomes nasty, because there are a lot of states with crippling debt obligations like this. The ratings agencies are also pulling wool over people's eyes by rating many of these bonds AAA. However, because active bond funds, almost without fail reach for yield...
by Theoretical
Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?
Replies: 41
Views: 3749

Re: Anyone hold any defensive funds in their portfolio?

High quality intermediate muni bonds (BMBIX)
Brokered CDs
TIPS
Trend Following Managed Futures
Paid off home
by Theoretical
Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VWO ex-Russia?
Replies: 19
Views: 1478

Re: VWO ex-Russia?

The killing is figurative, but the shorting costs will be very significant relative to the investment, especially on a thinly traded etf and that's not counting the retail borrowing rate.

It means the ER of the VWO ex RSX will likely be significantly higher.