Search found 118 matches

by Ki_poorrichard
Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17102

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

At the final conclusion of the paper the 2 most likely scenarios they give for Value coming back are (1) If Financial stocks come back or (2) if there is a tech crash similar to 2000. They claim both scenarios are unlikely. I agree they are unlikely and that is part of the reason valuations are the...
by Ki_poorrichard
Fri Sep 06, 2019 11:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm calling a bond bottom.
Replies: 55
Views: 12518

Re: I'm calling a bond bottom.

Not everyone thinks that the bond allocation should be intermediate term or the total (or even long term) bond funds. Dr Bernstein notably has recommended using short term bonds in a portfolio. Bernstein's rationale is that unexpected inflation is one of those "deep" risks that can eat alive your e...
by Ki_poorrichard
Fri Sep 06, 2019 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 17102

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

QVAL holds 40 stocks from a universe of 1,000, IVOV holds 295 stocks from the Mid Cap 400. Also look at the value characteristics. And because one has done worse than the other would make sense if it's a concentrated bet on value. There may be other issues such as overweight certain sectors (in the...
by Ki_poorrichard
Fri Sep 06, 2019 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 235
Views: 25254

Re: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]

I’m using 1999 as the start date, because that’s what’s being discussed. Let’s assume the “smart” money determined that value stocks were the appropriate response to the “bubble.” How has that worked out since then? https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&time...
by Ki_poorrichard
Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Episode 013: Bogleheads on Investing - guest Dr. Bill Bernstein, host Rick Ferri
Replies: 36
Views: 4667

Re: Episode 013: Bogleheads on Investing - guest Dr. Bill Bernstein, host Rick Ferri

Finally a podcast that’s actually good and interesting! Really worth your time. Please continue the great work Rick. Brilliant as always.

Dr. Bill Bernstein is one of best minds if not the best in investing. His insights are simply illuminating. Thank you for the amazing interview!
by Ki_poorrichard
Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 235
Views: 25254

Re: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]

I’m not thinking too much into it. In my opinion, Dr. Burry is just telling it like it is. The fact of the matter or what I get from it is this. Indexing has become extremely popular and sought after and bought into. When it’s time to exit, it’s literally all the same. I definitely buy into that. No...
by Ki_poorrichard
Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 235
Views: 25254

Re: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]

guyinlaw wrote:
Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:10 am
Unemployment rate at 3.7%, Inflation is at 1.8%, stock market near 10 year high. Market is expecting another 0.5% interest rate cut from the Fed.

So who is to blame for the bubble?
+1
by Ki_poorrichard
Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Very bad day
Replies: 39
Views: 6140

Re: Very bad day

Seriously, just look at the astronomical highs on these major averages. What RBDs?
by Ki_poorrichard
Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laser or inkjet
Replies: 58
Views: 3299

Re: Laser or inkjet

Costco is going to be offering an HP Laser Printer for 110 dollars off next week. It will be 287 I think. It is comparable with my Chromebook as my current Brother InkJet is not. This would be a personal printer and I do not do a lot of printing at home, just things I need to print like tickets and...
by Ki_poorrichard
Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Laser or inkjet
Replies: 58
Views: 3299

Re: Laser or inkjet

You may not be concerned about this, and it may elicit some sarcastic comments, but there is a potential health issue with laser printers emitting toner dust into the air. Sounds like a lawsuit in the making for every company out there who has sold a laser printer. Seriously, if that doesn’t get yo...
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 235
Views: 25254

Re: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]

Everyone most likely may have incentives to why. I don’t know the underlying reason and it may or may not be what you think. Dr. Burry gives valid points to why he thinks it so. Is is that unreasonable to think that the majority may be invested in indexing vehicles that migrate to a large cap weight...
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: this time it's different
Replies: 92
Views: 10397

Re: this time it's different

My view, secular stagnation is why I like dividends. I looked strongly at the logic of the create your own dividend crowd and thought about how that would work in a stagnant economy. Given the the old developed country demographics I thought stagnation was/is a very probable outcome that can be off...
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for stream of dividends
Replies: 61
Views: 5281

Re: Looking for stream of dividends

Make Your Own Balanced Fund 25% US stock (VTI) 25% global stock (VT) 25% US bond (AGG) 25% US bond (BND) Redirect the dividends to a money market fund. Sell the fund with the highest balance to meet expenses. Check and adjust once a year to make sure each fund has roughly the same balance. AGG and ...
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for stream of dividends
Replies: 61
Views: 5281

Re: Looking for stream of dividends

The etfs all have expense ratios. How does that eliminate the various ratios among the three index mutual funds?
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for stream of dividends
Replies: 61
Views: 5281

Re: Looking for stream of dividends

Make Your Own Balanced Fund 25% US stock (VTI) 25% global stock (VT) 25% US bond (AGG) 25% US bond (BND) Redirect the dividends to a money market fund. Sell the fund with the highest balance to meet expenses. Check and adjust once a year to make sure each fund has roughly the same balance. AGG and ...
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Looking for stream of dividends
Replies: 61
Views: 5281

Re: Looking for stream of dividends

Make Your Own Balanced Fund 25% US stock (VTI) 25% global stock (VT) 25% US bond (AGG) 25% US bond (BND) Redirect the dividends to a money market fund. Sell the fund with the highest balance to meet expenses. Check and adjust once a year to make sure each fund has roughly the same balance. AGG and ...
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: My urge to to time the market... maybe
Replies: 22
Views: 2523

Re: My urge to to time the market... maybe

Yes sir, definitely sounds like “market timing”.
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has the bond bubble finally arrived? If so, is anyone doing anything about it?
Replies: 94
Views: 10457

Re: Has the bond bubble finally arrived? If so, is anyone doing anything about it?

Alan Greenspan conveys that soon negative interest rates will spread to the U.S. Unbelievable, you pay them to hold on to your money. Utter madness. Seems as if everyone is intentionally being cornered to take on more risk in the stock market. For last few years there were multiple posts about inte...
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Has the bond bubble finally arrived? If so, is anyone doing anything about it?
Replies: 94
Views: 10457

Re: Has the bond bubble finally arrived? If so, is anyone doing anything about it?

Alan Greenspan conveys that soon negative interest rates will spread to the U.S. Unbelievable, you pay them to hold on to your money. Utter madness. Seems as if everyone is intentionally being cornered to take on more risk in the stock market.
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds Bubble? [Michael Burry article]
Replies: 235
Views: 25254

Re: The Big Short's Michael Burry on why index funds are like subprime CDOs - why is he wrong?

Why is he wrong? Also, it behooves you to ask, why is he right? My answer, time will tell. Michael Burry and Jeffrey Gundlach have reasonable insights on the subject matter. Both are brilliant minds in investing and worth listening to in my opinion. I guess its up to you to buy into it or not. At th...
by Ki_poorrichard
Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'
Replies: 101
Views: 10662

Re: GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron'

I invested in GE awhile back. Honestly, I did it because Jack Brennan was on their board of directors. I even watched him talk about GE and bring in the new CEO before Larry Culp. Plain and simple, I bought into the turn around story. There are stratified layers of risk in everything. Buyer beware. ...
by Ki_poorrichard
Fri Aug 03, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Getting rid of individual stocks
Replies: 37
Views: 4757

Re: Getting rid of individual stocks

In my opinion, whether it's index mutual funds, ETFs, or individual stocks ... they all come with risks. The difference is the level. The more concentrated, the bigger the reward or loss. Also, no guarantees when it comes to investing period. "We know accurately only when we know little; with knowle...
by Ki_poorrichard
Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for Four Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER)
Replies: 807
Views: 90527

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

Impressive to say the least, an ER of 0! But, the capital gains distribution for taxable acct. is undesirable in my opinion. Regardless, it will be a game changer when or if Vanguard's patent ends.
by Ki_poorrichard
Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: G Fund at 3%
Replies: 7
Views: 1661

Re: G Fund at 3%

Nothing like the G fund... talk about having your cake and eating it too.
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Current Market
Replies: 22
Views: 2033

Re: The Current Market

These are quite interesting times. A chapter in our history that still has yet to unfold.
by Ki_poorrichard
Sat May 26, 2018 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm an indexer... but...
Replies: 37
Views: 5334

Re: I'm an indexer... but...

The passage of time is the greatest arbitrator for this "beating the dead horse with a stick" debate concerning active versus passive investing. Maybe both sides of the camp are "spot-on" with their assessments in one way or the other. One can argue for or against until the proverbial cows come home...
by Ki_poorrichard
Thu May 24, 2018 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"
Replies: 140
Views: 22958

Re: GE and the myth of "safe blue-chip stocks"

Completely disappointed.

Full disclosure: I made a decision to own GE stock mainly because of the lead director on it's board. I figured that it was bulletproof. Costly mistake that I vow never to do again. Regardless, I hope they can turn it around.
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed May 23, 2018 11:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article on stock picking
Replies: 3
Views: 760

Re: Article on stock picking

Hundreds and hundreds of newsletters claiming to have the secret sauce to beat the market. Most people just listen to the following stock picker - "I'd be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient." - Warren Buffett But, can you really blame them for trying? Especially...
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed May 23, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Checked under the hood of index funds and investment firms
Replies: 8
Views: 1880

Re: Checked under the hood of index funds and investment firms

jumppilot wrote:
Wed May 23, 2018 3:43 am
The CEO of Vanguard makes over $15 million a year. They are definitely “for profit” when it comes to running a business.
Hmmm...thanks for sharing that with me.
by Ki_poorrichard
Wed May 23, 2018 2:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Checked under the hood of index funds and investment firms
Replies: 8
Views: 1880

Re: Checked under the hood of index funds and investment firms

Interesting feedback on the patent. Thanks for the nugget of insight. It’s well received and appreciated. Regardless, at the end of the day, it still spits out capital gains in a taxable account. ETFs are annoying as far as trading in and out of. Also, its price contingent on what someone is willing...
by Ki_poorrichard
Tue May 22, 2018 1:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Excess contribution inquiry re: Roth IRA
Replies: 2
Views: 312

Re: Excess contribution inquiry re: Roth IRA

That’s reassuring to hear. Thanks FiveK.
by Ki_poorrichard
Tue May 22, 2018 1:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Checked under the hood of index funds and investment firms
Replies: 8
Views: 1880

Checked under the hood of index funds and investment firms

I noticed that the total market index funds outside of Vanguard spit out capital gains. Like a darn actively managed fund. Makes you think twice about investing in them, especially when it comes to a taxable account. I’m seriously starting to regret leaving Vanguard. Live and learn, I guess. Vanguar...
by Ki_poorrichard
Tue May 22, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Excess contribution inquiry re: Roth IRA
Replies: 2
Views: 312

Excess contribution inquiry re: Roth IRA

Bogleheads, I need your help, insight, and wisdom. I contributed the maximum amount (5500k) to my Roth IRA account at a brokerage firm outside of my TSP Traditional/Roth account. I no longer work for the government, but decided to keep what I have since it’s dirt cheap (just the way I like to invest...
by Ki_poorrichard
Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds
Replies: 90
Views: 10125

Re: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds

I know you heard this— “Don’t fight the tape and don’t fight the Fed.” — Marty Zweig
by Ki_poorrichard
Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: John Bogle and Japanese Stock market.
Replies: 33
Views: 3635

Re: John Bogle and Japanese Stock market.

I learned to keep an open mind to all views from both camps and all the brilliant minds that reside there. But, my greatest teacher is experience. Regardless, time will tell whose right or wrong. I choose to believe that past data or history does not guarantee the future or outcomes especially with ...
by Ki_poorrichard
Fri Sep 02, 2016 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IRA brokerage account upgrade
Replies: 3
Views: 786

Re: IRA brokerage account upgrade

Thanks mhalley for the reply. No, I've had my account set up with them for a awhile now.
by Ki_poorrichard
Fri Sep 02, 2016 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: IRA brokerage account upgrade
Replies: 3
Views: 786

IRA brokerage account upgrade

I received mail from Vanguard asking for two types of ID. I currently hold a traditional IRA account with them. They say this is required for an upgrade to an IRA brokerage account which I requested. They asked for a copy of my social security card and driver's license as two examples of identifiers...
by Ki_poorrichard
Sat Aug 27, 2016 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing
Replies: 107
Views: 15940

Re: Bogle & Buffett on International Investing

Whether you buy into the argument for or against "international investing", it's your call. Personally, my take on it is this. The U.S. is not infallible. All the Ponzi schemes and debacles that have occurred speak for themselves. No country is exempt from it despite the safeguards to prevent it. Bo...
by Ki_poorrichard
Mon Sep 21, 2015 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actively managed tax-managed funds, do they deliver
Replies: 11
Views: 1311

Re: Actively managed tax-managed funds, do they deliver

Thanks Larry,

Your articles are always interesting and insightful. Once again, thank you!
by Ki_poorrichard
Mon Sep 21, 2015 2:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dynamic asset allocation, based on market crashing?
Replies: 19
Views: 1912

Re: dynamic asset allocation, based on market crashing?

Waba wrote:Buying at the bottom and selling at the top of market cycles is a very good strategy.
Sounds like a strategy based on market timing.
by Ki_poorrichard
Mon Sep 21, 2015 1:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: dynamic asset allocation, based on market crashing?
Replies: 19
Views: 1912

Re: dynamic asset allocation, based on market crashing?

In my opinion, portfolio tinkering can backfire if it's based on timing the market. It may not turn out the way you want or picture it to be as far as outcome. Everything in theory (market timing) sounds good up to a point, but in practice its different.
by Ki_poorrichard
Sun Sep 06, 2015 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mohamed El-Erian Has Most of His Money in Cash
Replies: 89
Views: 14056

Re: Mohamed El-Erian Has Most of His Money in Cash

But consider global debt levels; the unknown territory of economic stimulus we're in; the contagion of poor US markets on the rest of the world ... The fact the world's 2nd largest economy could take that kind of turn: I don't think it's beyond comprehension that that kind of downturn in a major ec...
by Ki_poorrichard
Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: He's anxious about the next bubble
Replies: 91
Views: 10435

Re: Shiller: He's anxious about the next bubble

He says that over the past five years technology use has expanded to include us using a computer in our hand to do all sorts of marvelous things. But then his heading for his technology remarks is people's "fear of technology" -- a sense that we are living in a completely different, less secure wor...
by Ki_poorrichard
Sun Sep 06, 2015 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mebane Faber's moving average timing system has gone to 100% cash.
Replies: 56
Views: 9001

Re: Mebane Faber's moving average timing system has gone to 100% cash.

This sort of approach to "investing" does not "work" for a guy like me! Nor I ... such investors are in a league of their own. :| A "league of their own" seems a bit hyperbole. Perhaps, to devise the system, but to merely follow it seems mindless. If it trades at end of month only, then it would ta...
by Ki_poorrichard
Sun Sep 06, 2015 1:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mebane Faber's moving average timing system has gone to 100% cash.
Replies: 56
Views: 9001

Re: Mebane Faber's moving average timing system has gone to 100% cash.

Off topic somewhat. I'm wondering how much Warren Buffett "trimmed" his positions in: Coke,Wells Fargo,American Express,Walmart,IBM, during the month of August :happy Let's keep in mind that even the guru investors we all look up to can get "burned" and Warren has in the past gotten "burned". Even ...
by Ki_poorrichard
Sun Sep 06, 2015 1:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mebane Faber's moving average timing system has gone to 100% cash.
Replies: 56
Views: 9001

Re: Mebane Faber's moving average timing system has gone to 100% cash.

RiskyInvestment wrote: I'm not sure if I would be comfortable sticking to it if I was in the withdrawal phase. It is still quite vulnerable to a catastrophic event that would make all markets crash significantly within a few days.
+1
by Ki_poorrichard
Sun Sep 06, 2015 1:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: He's anxious about the next bubble
Replies: 91
Views: 10435

Re: Shiller: He's anxious about the next bubble

I have lots of respect for this man. I am kind of blown away right now by his description of the current boom. I will probably be thinking about this for a few days. - Tim +1 I too have great respect for him. "Irrational exuberance is the psychological basis of a speculative bubble. I define a spec...
by Ki_poorrichard
Sun Sep 06, 2015 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mebane Faber's moving average timing system has gone to 100% cash.
Replies: 56
Views: 9001

Re: Mebane Faber's moving average timing system has gone to 100% cash.

IPer wrote:This sort of approach to "investing" does not "work" for a guy like me!
Nor I ... such investors are in a league of their own. :|
by Ki_poorrichard
Sun Sep 06, 2015 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mebane Faber's moving average timing system has gone to 100% cash.
Replies: 56
Views: 9001

Re: Mebane Faber's moving average timing system has gone to 100% cash.

However, Warren's got rock solid discipline to stay in the game and let the tide take care of itself. That's too funny! Mr Buffett is kind of trapped in his investments. Do you think he can sell shares in BRK or KO or anything at a moment's notice? I don't think so. He just bought something recentl...
by Ki_poorrichard
Sat Sep 05, 2015 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mebane Faber's moving average timing system has gone to 100% cash.
Replies: 56
Views: 9001

Re: Mebane Faber's moving average timing system has gone to 100% cash.

Off topic somewhat. I'm wondering how much Warren Buffett "trimmed" his positions in: Coke,Wells Fargo,American Express,Walmart,IBM, during the month of August :happy Let's keep in mind that even the guru investors we all look up to can get "burned" and Warren has in the past gotten "burned". Even ...