Search found 118 matches

by Reb Tevye
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"
Replies: 240
Views: 21526

Re: "Don't Obsess About Expense Ratios"

Bait and switch?
Marketing ploy?

I dunno. Here is a customer-focused bank that used a similar strategy.

https://view.yahoo.com/show/saturday-ni ... nge-bank-2
by Reb Tevye
Thu Jul 19, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm about to inherit a single stock with a worth of just over 7 figures....
Replies: 103
Views: 9093

Re: I'm about to inherit a single stock with a worth of just over 7 figures....

A single stock is a fast way to get rich, or a fast way to get poor. And a certain way to not earn the market return. Do these appeal to you? If not, sell the stock tax efficiently and move on. If you do have a preference to keep the stock, you need to figure out for yourself why exactly. And then y...
by Reb Tevye
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 19377

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

Is the decade lost in its first year or in its final year? Or a little bit each year?

Because that’ll make a big difference to me in how I prepare.
by Reb Tevye
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not go 100% stocks?
Replies: 125
Views: 14322

Re: Why not go 100% stocks?

I'm relatively young, 35, and plan to work for the next two decades. I'm in a dual physician household and enjoy working and being productive. I don't really enjoy site-seeing and traveling as much. My household income is approximately 900K with approximately 120K of annual expenses. My question is...
by Reb Tevye
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why not go 100% stocks?
Replies: 125
Views: 14322

Re: Why not go 100% stocks?

However the main disadvantage I see with going 100% stocks is an inability of taking advantage of a market downturn to buy stocks. In 2008 the Dow fell from ~16000 to ~6000. If I don't have any money in bonds I wouldn't be able to buy stocks at such a low cost other than with income generated. I be...
by Reb Tevye
Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?
Replies: 48
Views: 4756

Re: Why is warren buffet okay with no owning any bonds?

I think it’s because he hasn’t done enough backtesting with FIRECalc.
:sharebeer
by Reb Tevye
Fri Jun 29, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, It’ll Happen - Jonathan Clements
Replies: 33
Views: 7271

Re: Yes, It’ll Happen - Jonathan Clements

And many Bogleheads remember when they were not Bogleheads. :beer
by Reb Tevye
Fri Jun 29, 2018 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?
Replies: 32
Views: 4077

Re: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?

Masters of the Word was a flop, and if I suggested an update to my publisher it would be hard to get them to stop laughing. But you're right, I was wrong about a few things, a lot more things have evolved, and theoretically it would be nice to update it. .... Bill To be sure, when I wrote ‘painful,...
by Reb Tevye
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman
Replies: 20
Views: 2859

Re: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman

livesoft wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:09 am
I smell buckets. Buckets of ....
That’s funny.
by Reb Tevye
Thu Jun 28, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stocks vs. rental property
Replies: 101
Views: 10468

Re: Stocks vs. rental property

I was an semi-accidental landlord once, Hated it. Lying tenants, deficating pets, lawyers. I decided never again. I decided to put my life energy elsewhere, and left real estate profits to someone else to earn. I owned an individual stock that zeroed out once. I owned an individual stock that increa...
by Reb Tevye
Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?
Replies: 32
Views: 4077

Re: Bernstein watchers - where do you go to see his current writing or current allocation preferences ?

Dr Bernstein,

How about a couple new timely chapters of Masters of the Word?

I would consider it painful but insightfully necessary reading, if you wrote it.

That book is a profoundly relevant gem.
by Reb Tevye
Thu Jun 28, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman
Replies: 20
Views: 2859

Re: "How to invest without regret" - Daniel Kahneman

Two portfolios, one risky, one safe.

That sounds like my one portfolio... with stocks and bonds. :happy
by Reb Tevye
Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 5534

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

SimpleGift wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:10 pm
You've may have seen it, but William Bernstein discusses this issue in more detail in one of his Efficient Frontier blog posts from 2001, The Societal Risk Premium.
Good stuff. I say, as I eat a delicious 19-cent banana.
by Reb Tevye
Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Subaru EyeSight windshield insurance
Replies: 14
Views: 1737

Re: Subaru EyeSight windshield insurance

http://www.iihs.org/iihs/sr/statusreport/article/53/3/2

Data mining + Inference says that cars with EyeSight run into 30%-40% fewer pedestrians. But, really, who here would say they might ever run into a pedestrian?
by Reb Tevye
Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 5534

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

Did anyone dig up volatility numbers for these historical returns? Returns follow risk. Yes, it took me a while to find, but there is return, volatility (standard deviation) and Sharpe ratio data on the deep history of equity returns from 1629 through 1870 (table below): https://i.imgur.com/V7nUQXR...
by Reb Tevye
Wed Jun 13, 2018 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Life Insurance policy to transfer wealth
Replies: 12
Views: 1364

Re: Life Insurance policy to transfer wealth

I can get the 5.2% with these inputs PV = 0 FV = $1.6M ($1M / (1-35%-4%)) N = 30 PMT = $24k payment at end of period The error is that one must assume either paying premiums from taxable or tax deferred. If from taxable, then the FV is $1M, assuming basis stepped up. Or $1M/0.96 accounting for estat...
by Reb Tevye
Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Life Insurance policy to transfer wealth
Replies: 12
Views: 1364

Re: Life Insurance policy to transfer wealth

How about using your taxable account to pay the taxes on Roth conversions for a decade or so, and to make gifts to your children? Roth and money they already have will be untaxed to them after your death. AFAIK. I also don’t get the 5% return. Maybe 2% in a 30 year TMV calculation. Nominal 2%. Eithe...
by Reb Tevye
Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns
Replies: 75
Views: 5534

Re: The Deep History of Stock & Bond Returns

Fun and informative thread.

Boy, I’m sure hoping for 2% real on bonds this century.

Did anyone dig up volatility numbers for these historical returns? Returns follow risk. Did that drop too?
by Reb Tevye
Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity retirement planner accurate ?
Replies: 12
Views: 1940

Re: Fidelity retirement planner accurate ?

I am trying the fidelity planner for early semi retirement scenarios for a 49/46 couple with $2.06MM of retirement assets and post retirement earnings of $2500 pm up to age 66 and SS of $2550 starting at age 67. I am trying the planner up to age 94 for significant below average return for expense o...
by Reb Tevye
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilt tward small & mid capital for 1 to 2% more return
Replies: 13
Views: 1084

Re: Tilt tward small & mid capital for 1 to 2% more return

I have 30-40 years to invest, and love free lunches.
Or even a couple passes through the Costco free samples line.

What was the question again?
by Reb Tevye
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]
Replies: 134
Views: 12453

Re: Interesting video from Ramsey today [How Ramsey Outperforms The Stock Market]

DR is clearly a good student of financial history, having learned this lesson that all too many people seem to forget,
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it.
by Reb Tevye
Mon Jun 04, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For retirement at 55 what is a good multiplier?
Replies: 65
Views: 12289

Re: For retirement at 55 what is a good multiplier?

Maybe y'all are overthinking this. Just do a 4% per year SWR. You Will be fine of at least the next 30 years. After that time: (A) Most likely you either will be dead; or (B) so out of your mind as not to care. The fact is most people don't live as long as they think they will. We all approach this...
by Reb Tevye
Thu May 31, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness - The Hedgie in Winter
Replies: 40
Views: 3926

Re: Cliff Asness - The Hedgie in Winter

Can anyone find out if Cliff Asness (who is a hedge fund manager) put anything on the public record about the bet at the time it was made? Did Asness think that it was inappropriate to expect hedge funds to beat the S&P 500 then? Or only now, in retrospect? Did any other hedge fund manager think so...
by Reb Tevye
Fri May 25, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deferred Compension tax treatment question
Replies: 21
Views: 1449

Re: Deferred Compension tax treatment question

Bacchus01 wrote:
Thu May 24, 2018 10:48 am
The withholding is at that rate, but the actual tax due is at your marginal rate, no?
Right.
Straightforward for Federal.

The key question is when the original work state includes the deferred payout as taxable income to a bona fide non-resident.
by Reb Tevye
Fri May 25, 2018 10:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deferred Compension tax treatment question
Replies: 21
Views: 1449

Re: Deferred Compension tax treatment question

I've been receiving deferred comp over a 15-year period that is paid in a lump sum in January and reported on a W-2. Itt is not considered "earned income" for IRS purposes, so you can't do an additional tax deferral through an IRA etc. ... Just in case you are from an aggressive tax state such as N...
by Reb Tevye
Fri May 25, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality
Replies: 98
Views: 11213

Re: Withdrawal Rates – Part 24: Flexibility Myths vs. Reality

the 27.5X annual spending equates to a 3.64% withdrawal rate. But interestingly, he earlier determined that a 3.26% WR was needed for the 1929 cohort to make it, and a 3.49% WR was needed for the 1966 cohort. Three-digit withdrawal rates? Snort, guffaw, pshaw! Herr Hennes, who beat into me the impo...
by Reb Tevye
Wed May 23, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Returns Can Teach
Replies: 6
Views: 1077

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Returns Can Teach

3a) I can pick robots that can pick ETFs that can track non-overlapping collections of stocks?
by Reb Tevye
Wed May 23, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deferred Compension tax treatment question
Replies: 21
Views: 1449

Re: Deferred Compension tax treatment question

I've been receiving deferred comp over a 15-year period that is paid in a lump sum in January and reported on a W-2. Itt is not considered "earned income" for IRS purposes, so you can't do an additional tax deferral through an IRA etc. ... Just in case you are from an aggressive tax state such as N...
by Reb Tevye
Wed May 23, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Returns Can Teach
Replies: 6
Views: 1077

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Returns Can Teach

I’m chasing an alpha of zero, after taxes and fees.
by Reb Tevye
Tue May 22, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I tell if Roth conversions are worth the trouble?
Replies: 76
Views: 6563

Re: How do I tell if Roth conversions are worth the trouble?

I would propose that you make sure that your set earnings in each fund type ( taxable, Roth, tax deferred) is equal when you do the Roth conversion comparison - otherwise you will tend to drive any of these calculators to recommend the best return rather than the best approach. Hi. Thanks. My earni...
by Reb Tevye
Tue May 22, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Deferred Compension tax treatment question
Replies: 21
Views: 1449

Re: Deferred Compension tax treatment question

Hi,
According to this prior post, no you can’t. It’s not earned income.

viewtopic.php?t=238934
by Reb Tevye
Tue May 22, 2018 9:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do I tell if Roth conversions are worth the trouble?
Replies: 76
Views: 6563

Re: How do I tell if Roth conversions are worth the trouble?

Recently I spent 45 minutes running a big handful of I-ORP scenarios. I found it directionally helpful. I found it fast and easy. 80% of our assets are tax deferred so it’s quite relevant to answer this question. Here is how I used I-ORP. I made a “base case” scenario with no conversions. I-ORP spit...
by Reb Tevye
Sun May 20, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wife Retiring hesitant to roll-over funds to Vanguard
Replies: 36
Views: 2870

Re: Wife Retiring hesitant to roll-over funds to Vanguard

“Husband of Wife Retiring hesitant to roll-over her funds to Schwab?”

😀
by Reb Tevye
Sun May 20, 2018 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: $1,700,000 from family trust...
Replies: 83
Views: 10951

Re: $1,700,000 from family trust...

Congratulations on your windfall. You have found an excellent resource here on the internet. I gather that you are not overly familiar with investing. That’s fine. It does take time, but you will be “paying yourself very well” to learn the basics. And luckily for you, by finding Bogleheads, you can ...
by Reb Tevye
Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Duffel >62 linear inches but won't be full...oversize fee?
Replies: 11
Views: 1183

Re: Duffel >62 linear inches but won't be full...oversize fee?

I reached inside my over-long duffel bag, pinched the center of one end, pulled it toward the other end, then zip-tied the handful of extra duffel, et voila, my duffel bag was now 18 inches shorter!
by Reb Tevye
Mon Jan 15, 2018 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar Premium for $99
Replies: 33
Views: 6064

Re: Morningstar Premium for $99

Regarding individual corporate and treasury bonds, how does the M* portfolio and analysis tool handle them? Eg does it know their coupon, maturity and credit rating? Does it nicely blend and evaluate them together with bond fund like it seems to for individual stocks and stock funds? Yes. Sort of. ...
by Reb Tevye
Wed Jan 10, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 43528

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

Well said. I think in all of our planning of various strategies, this point does not get enough attention. There is no 100% safe withdrawal rate going forward. You have to balance various risks, including the risk of running out of time. Against what intuition would suggest, the consequences of run...
by Reb Tevye
Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar Premium for $99
Replies: 33
Views: 6064

Re: Morningstar Premium for $99

Regarding individual corporate and treasury bonds, how does the M* portfolio and analysis tool handle them? Eg does it know their coupon, maturity and credit rating? Does it nicely blend and evaluate them together with bond fund like it seems to for individual stocks and stock funds? Yes. Sort of. ...
by Reb Tevye
Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar Premium for $99
Replies: 33
Views: 6064

Re: Morningstar Premium for $99

Regarding individual corporate and treasury bonds, how does the M* portfolio and analysis tool handle them?

Eg does it know their coupon, maturity and credit rating?
Does it nicely blend and evaluate them together with bond fund like it seems to for individual stocks and stock funds?
by Reb Tevye
Sat Jan 06, 2018 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can American Funds be worth the load?
Replies: 17
Views: 4234

Re: Can American Funds be worth the load?

I wonder how many funds AF has created in it’s history. I wonder how many funds AF has closed in its history. I wonder if every American Fund beat the SP500 since each fund’s inception. And if not, why AF bothered to create any non-beating funds. And what AF and AF Fund advisors said at the time wer...
by Reb Tevye
Sat Dec 23, 2017 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are Roth IRAs overrated?
Replies: 88
Views: 11158

Re: Are Roth IRAs overrated?

1. Roths totally suck for people who either don't qualify for them or for whom they are not advantageous. 2. Roths totally don't suck for people who do qualify and for whom they are advantageous. Does that distinction make sense? Would you agree that there is at least one person in Group 2? Would yo...
by Reb Tevye
Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Schwab spot: "Buy invididual stocks impulsively in the middle of the night!"
Replies: 12
Views: 2207

Re: New Schwab spot: "Buy invididual stocks impulsively in the middle of the night!"

Here's an ad featuring my namesake (colloquial usage).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRGHG_C-dl0

Indeed it is starting to "feel" like the late 90's again.
by Reb Tevye
Wed Dec 20, 2017 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: too much $ in my company of work?
Replies: 51
Views: 4709

Re: too much $ in my company of work?

Individual stocks: Fast way to get rich. Fast way to get poor. Fast way to do neither. I know an Enron family. I know a WCOM family. I know a “small-company-you-never-heard-of” family. Sadly, I don’t know an AMZN family. Many many people have loads of company stock. Like a majority of their money. S...
by Reb Tevye
Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Taxable vs. Tax Deferred - not much difference?
Replies: 56
Views: 5057

Re: Taxable vs. Tax Deferred - not much difference?

For the IRS's list of the penalty exceptions, which vary depending on account type, look at this table: https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-tax-on-early-distributions To the OP, 1. Know YOUR circumstances. 2. Know the current tax rules. 3. Know that both ...
by Reb Tevye
Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Uber for someone who knows only taxis
Replies: 93
Views: 7148

Re: Uber for someone who knows only taxis

Both Uber and Lyft are extremely convenient. To me the big advantages are knowing the exact arrival time, seeing the car on it's way to you on your smart phone map, and in some complicated place being able to directly call the driver to coordinate/explain the pick up. 90% of cars are extremely clean...
by Reb Tevye
Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash
Replies: 36
Views: 3834

Re: 30th Anniversary of October 19, 1987 stock market crash

In Oct 1987, I had a couple years of retirement savings. I didn't know anything about anything.

The crash happened.

I walked into the bank and withdrew my entire IRA.

Due to that event and returning to school, etc I didn't save/invest another dollar in anything but CD's until 1991.
by Reb Tevye
Mon Aug 07, 2017 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation for investments with known use date
Replies: 21
Views: 2371

Re: Asset allocation for investments with known use date

Hi kehyler,

For kicks, would you paste in a table of the % for each of the 3 asset clases for years 0-22?

Thanks.
by Reb Tevye
Sun Jul 30, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How do you decide if you can afford something?
Replies: 63
Views: 5150

Re: How do you decide if you can afford something?

Incendiary wrote:What are your thoughts?
I try not to over think if I can afford something.

When I do overthink it, then I tend not to buy it.
by Reb Tevye
Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to calculate your retirement number
Replies: 95
Views: 11781

Re: How to calcuate your retirement number

Picking brains here. How do you guys calculate your retirement number? Way way in advance: 25x some vague notion of annual living expenses. Getting closer: Add 40% because you forgot to account for inflation and even 'normal' medical expenses. Getting still closer: stop counting in dollars and coun...