Search found 151 matches

by pacodelostigres
Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000? [Archived]
Replies: 1479
Views: 347494

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

"But if you are worth 7 figures, have no debt except mortgage, are consistently saving enough for retirement why wouldn't any extra money go towards frivolous purchases?" I have a hard time believing that this is a serious question. We are worth a couple million dollars, have no debt (including mortgage), have saved 50%+ of our income every year, make ~$250k a year, and spend almost nothing on frivolous purchases. Why would I buy something I deem to be frivolous? That's just more hours I have to spend working before I can retire permanently. Wasting money is just harming myself, and is the antithesis of everything I've been working on for twenty years. Also, I love watches and don't have any issue with buying an expensive watch if...
by pacodelostigres
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119376

Re: Something Can't Be Right

The potential downsides are priced in. So are the potential upsides. Prices will change as potential becomes reality, whatever that turns out to be. I generally believe in EMH, but I disagree with you here on everything but your last point. This is not a set of circumstances that the models are well built to address, and I think that the novelty of the situation is both driving volatility and quite a bit of mispricing. Even if you believe that the models can handle this, what inputs do you use for earnings, or anything else for that matter? I've worked in FP&A for many years and I'd have no idea how to even do a corporate budget in this scenario, much less any kind of valid equity analysis. VIX sitting at 60 is a pretty good indicator ...
by pacodelostigres
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 22381
Views: 2119376

Re: Something Can't Be Right

What's the saying, markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent? I agree with your point though. The unemployment numbers are terrible, and are very likely an underestimate. The theory would say that the market expected worse and this is a pleasant surprise, but I just don't buy that. I also don't buy that this problem is going to be solved by the government throwing cash at people. It helps, and is necessary, but there is a lot of potential downside not priced in right now and when big hospitals start making hard, public triage decisions people are going to freak out. I expect we'll hit peak fear/bearishness/capitulation when pretty much everyone knows someone in their network that is having a bad time with COVID, which is ...
by pacodelostigres
Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks .. talk me out of it
Replies: 31
Views: 2929

Re: Individual Stocks .. talk me out of it

I saw an article this morning that suggested some investors are recruiting satellite photography to look at traffic patterns, to evaluate changes in consumption habits and drive investments decisions.

Can you compete with that? If not, why try?
by pacodelostigres
Thu May 30, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good small SUV or AWD sedan recs
Replies: 39
Views: 2910

Re: Good small SUV or AWD sedan recs

chw wrote: Thu May 30, 2019 10:49 am Thank you all for the continued replies! Regarding street parking- parking isn't necessarily "tight", but certainly not plentiful at times. That being said, the EcoSport may be worth looking at (in addition to the Crosstrek, Mazda 3, and possible usual Honda/Toyota options), given the shorter overall length (and lower price point). May also consider the suggestion of trying to find a quality used (no older than 3-4 years), if the price discount to new makes sense.
I just bought a 2019 Escape SE AWD with some options for $24k, all-in. Took some negotiating, but you can do better than an EcoSport for $25k.
by pacodelostigres
Wed May 15, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets
Replies: 1169
Views: 228002

Re: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets

First Republic needs to be on your list. I just refinanced with them at 2.65%. Yes they use Pershing, but Pershing actually has some positives. For example you get access to DFA funds, no advisory fee required. How long do you have to keep the funds at First Republic for? I assume you'd have to keep it there for the life of the loan, but how would they enforce this? Charge a fee to your checking account? There is no enforcement. If you had a paid off house, would you mortgage it for a million dollars to invest? If so, then this makes sense. Personally, my investment strategy is not that aggressive. My house has been paid off for many years and I've never been tempted to mortgage it just to have even more index funds. Liquidity is good, but...
by pacodelostigres
Tue May 14, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets
Replies: 1169
Views: 228002

Re: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets

If you have several million dollars, why do you need/want a mortgage? Sounds like an avoidable headache. If I can borrow $1M at (in my case) 2.2% (including tax benefits), why wouldn’t I do that? Even conservative estimates of nominal market returns are at least 5%. If you had a paid off house, would you mortgage it for a million dollars to invest? If so, then this makes sense. Personally, my investment strategy is not that aggressive. My house has been paid off for many years and I've never been tempted to mortgage it just to have even more index funds. Liquidity is good, but so is the flexibility of being unlevered when other life circumstances change. Having no mortgage allowed me to quit a horrible job with no plan. That kind of freedo...
by pacodelostigres
Fri May 10, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Front loading washing machine "oversuds"
Replies: 12
Views: 1122

Re: Front loading washing machine "oversuds"

We had this same problem. Cutting the amount of detergent in half fixed it immediately. Front loading HE washing machines use surprisingly very little detergent.
by pacodelostigres
Fri May 10, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets
Replies: 1169
Views: 228002

Re: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets

If you have several million dollars, why do you need/want a mortgage? Sounds like an avoidable headache.
by pacodelostigres
Wed May 08, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Undergrad major in Economics or Finance?
Replies: 62
Views: 5342

Re: Undergrad major in Economics or Finance?

I have an undergrad in Econ and a graduate degree in Finance. My career prospects improved immediately when I got the Finance degree, as did my pay. The Econ degree was very limiting, and it wasn't about the BS vs MS.
by pacodelostigres
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whats the Point of Climbing the Corporate Ladder?
Replies: 164
Views: 22380

Re: Whats the Point of Climbing the Corporate Ladder?

During my career, quite a while ago, I had to “let go” people who had basically retired on the job. Not saying the OP would do this but a mindset of low ambition, lack of improvement, complaining about the bosses, etc can often mean being unemployed in your early ‘50’s. If you aren’t progressing it can often mean you are falling behind. Of course there are always exceptions and environments vary by industry somewhat. I would hate this outcome. I'm doing what OP suggested, and if I'm not unemployed by my early 50's I've failed. Badly. I want out by 45 at the worst. Seriously though, I was a manager on a Director track at a job I hated and 'downgraded' to an individual performer role at about 75% of the pay at a different company. My bosses ...
by pacodelostigres
Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations
Replies: 65
Views: 5974

Re: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations

Like you, I am asking this respectfully, since you have put your credentials out there: Does "CSCS Certification" require a practical demonstration of in-person instructing people in lifting weights, or do you just have to pass a written test? My credentials are 40 years of practical experience and instruction from lifters who emphasize functional strength for real world tasks and injury avoidance. CSCS is National Strength and Conditioning Association (NSCA) certified strength and conditioning specialist. Yes there is a practical/applied section of the test, where you watch people (on video) and note errors in movement patterns, muscular inhibition, etc. It is, by far, the most difficult and respected certification in the indust...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations
Replies: 65
Views: 5974

Re: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations

The crucial feature of adjustable or non-adjustable dumbbells is being able to change weight in small increments. I would want no less than 1.25 pounds at a time. If you get strong enough to do 10 presses at 10 pounds, a 2.5 pound increase is 25%, and that means, at the best, your form will deteriorate and you won't get stronger, or at the worst, you'll hurt yourself and you won't get stronger. 1 pound increments are what I would look for. You can always improvise small increases by using chains, magnets, or whatever else you can dream up. Respectfully, this is not good advice. If you're lifting 2*10 lb dumbbells for a few sets of 10 (which is a pretty extreme example on the low end) and want to move up in weight, you're going to still be ...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations
Replies: 65
Views: 5974

Re: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations

livesoft wrote: Sat Mar 23, 2019 12:18 pm
ThankYouJack wrote: Sat Mar 23, 2019 10:48 amThat would be better but I'd probably want to go up to 50+ pounds per dumbbell. So seems like it could get costly. And they'll take up more space.
I've never seen anyone using 50+ lbs per dumbbell. Sounds dangerous.

Did you notice that the link to Dick's dumbbells had no dumbbell greater than 20 lbs?
I routinely use 100's. Buying sets of individual dumbbell pairs for every weight gets expensive very quickly once you're using anything more than about 25 lbs per.
by pacodelostigres
Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to finance addition
Replies: 21
Views: 1344

Re: How to finance addition

From everything you've posted, you don't need it and can't afford it.
by pacodelostigres
Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My wife's 2016 Mazda CX-5 lease is up. Now what?
Replies: 37
Views: 3779

Re: My wife's 2016 Mazda CX-5 lease is up. Now what?

I just got a 2019 Ford Escape SE Sport 4WD for 24k all in. We have a 2017 as well and it's a solid choice. I might have qualified for a few rebates beyond normal, but I'd expect anyone could get them for 27-28k.
by pacodelostigres
Tue Mar 05, 2019 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: next dollar of savings
Replies: 39
Views: 3980

Re: next dollar of savings

Also, to be clear, I'd only do that after maxing out tax advantaged space, getting all your available matches, HSA, Roth IRA, 529, emergency fund, etc. It's more valuable than taxable investing, but probably less than all of those other things.

Also, depending on the rates, I'd pay down any revolving or secured installment debt first, but not any student loans. Student loans have tax benefits regardless of itemization, and there's the potential for mortgage interest tax law to change back in your favor eventually, so credit/auto type debt would be more desirable to pay down first.
by pacodelostigres
Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: next dollar of savings
Replies: 39
Views: 3980

Re: next dollar of savings

I'd pay down the mortgage if you're taking the standard deduction and you have no liquidity concerns.

If you can't deduct any interest, the 4.75% is a risk free after tax rate. You can't beat that anywhere, by a wide margin. I'd be thrilled to get that kind of return right now.
by pacodelostigres
Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation - Cash Position
Replies: 18
Views: 3052

Re: Asset Allocation - Cash Position

We have a small six figure cash balance and don't count it as part of asset allocation. That's based on the money being set aside for several specific purposes: 30k for 529 contributions to be made within 3 years, 12k for home maintenance (mostly a new roof within five years), 40k for an emergency fund (job/medical), 5k self escrow for taxes and annual bills, a small rolling vacation fund, and a 20k and growing car fund for purchases to be made when our leases end in a year. It's all in a high yielding savings account that's earning enough to basically offset inflation. We contribute monthly to the maintenance, vacation, escrow, and car funds. If we were sitting on cash because I didn't want to buy bonds or equities, but it had no purpose, ...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to find inexpensive unlocked phone
Replies: 56
Views: 5696

Re: Where to find inexpensive unlocked phone

I just ported my Google Voice number to Sprint to get the Kickstart Unlimited plan for $25 / month (~$30 after fees/taxes), and bought a Moto G6 unlocked for $150 to go with it, through Best Buy. It's not T-Mobile, but you won't find a better deal.

It took a couple extra steps to do it this way, but was worth it.
by pacodelostigres
Mon Mar 04, 2019 9:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Convince aging parents to pay for snow removal
Replies: 64
Views: 5461

Re: Convince aging parents to pay for snow removal

They're adults and have told you no, politely. Mind your own business and stay out of it.
by pacodelostigres
Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Capital
Replies: 20
Views: 1920

Re: Personal Capital

You could just not give them your phone number?
by pacodelostigres
Thu Jan 31, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Were you 100% debt free at retirement
Replies: 163
Views: 14843

Re: Were you 100% debt free at retirement

We loathe debt. I think we were debt free by the time I was 34. No regrets.

We have bucketed savings for things like cars, home improvement, vacations, and annual expenses. We'll pay cash for any large future expenditures.
by pacodelostigres
Fri Jan 25, 2019 4:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?
Replies: 352
Views: 74765

Re: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?

crazycatman wrote: Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:16 pm
Man, this sounds eerily like my wife and I, minus the kid(s). We’re 32 and 29, but will hopefully have a kid by 35, so we’ll probably be where you are by then. Income is about 125k, but we live on <3.25k/mo. And as much as I want expensive taste, I can’t shake Michelob Ultra and Wild Turkey, and she loves Rex Goliath Moscato. One of our cars has has minor damage since 2016. Could have repaired it 10x over, but haven’t because it’s a 10k car anyway, and who cares? Kudos to you and your beer taste on a champagne budget. 🍻
There's absolutely nothing wrong with Wild Turkey! Try Bulleit Rye though if you're looking for a small splurge. Better than anything else available up to double the cost.
by pacodelostigres
Fri Jan 25, 2019 3:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How will you spend your retirement money?
Replies: 86
Views: 11876

Re: How will you spend your retirement money?

I plan to be pretty much a lazy bum. Sleep in, then surf the Internet for awhile before taking a long shower, and then eating breakfast somewhere around the vicinity of noon. Then, in the early afternoon, run any errands that need to be handled, and then come home to do a combination of the following: surf the Internet, watch a movie, watch TV, play a console video game, and/or play a PC video game. Basically sit in front of the TV or computer until midnight or so and then go to sleep. Other than that, just keep the house clean. I know it's not for everyone, but I look forward to doing nothing. :D You are living my dream there. Xbox, weed, gym membership, and Netflix. Same house, but no kid and no job, plus so much more free time. If it we...
by pacodelostigres
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?
Replies: 352
Views: 74765

Re: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?

Left college with significant negative net worth, poor families, and no safety net. Waited until 35 to have a kid, LBYM, aggressively paid off all debt including mortgage then rerouted money to index funds. Started in jobs that paid about 30k/yr each but worked hard and were very aggressive about getting paid our worth, and we're both now up to about 120k (with no real prospects for further advancement). We live on about 5k/mo net including a hefty daycare bill, but could easily live on 3k a month if we went to one income without reducing our standard of living beyond firing the monthly cleaners and buying a few less prepared meals from Costco. Simple hobbies and low cost vacations. We spend about 3k a year on travel and about 3k a year on ...
by pacodelostigres
Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?
Replies: 97
Views: 9876

Re: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?

UpsetRaptor wrote: Tue Oct 23, 2018 11:41 am I see what you're saying, in your first paragraph. Why formulate based on marginal tax rate though, as opposed to LTCG?
Because comparable riskless assets usually pay an interest rate rather than capital gains. A comparison between the return on paying down your mortgage and the equity market isn't really very applicable. If you're 100% equity and keep very little fixed income or cash, then you'd also be dabbling in asset allocation decisions and it would be a lot more complicated.
by pacodelostigres
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?
Replies: 97
Views: 9876

Re: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?

Mortgage interest is a lot less deductible than it used to be for the average taxpayer. It's a risk free after tax return for the portion that is not deductible. If you're paying a 4% mortgage rate and paying 33% in marginal income taxes, and you can't deduct the interest, you're getting 6% risk free return before taxes. Where else can you get that? If you're investing primarily in tax advantaged accounts where you don't have readily accessible funds, then at a minimum it's worth considering allocating all of the fixed income portion of your portfolio into paying down debt at that kind of return. I'm not sure if I follow the bolded part. On a 4% mortgage rate, non-deductible, how is the guaranteed risk-free return higher than 4%? Because y...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?
Replies: 97
Views: 9876

Re: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?

Mortgage interest is a lot less deductible than it used to be for the average taxpayer. It's a risk free after tax return for the portion that is not deductible. If you're paying a 4% mortgage rate and paying 33% in marginal income taxes, and you can't deduct the interest, you're getting 6% risk free return before taxes. Where else can you get that?

If you're investing primarily in tax advantaged accounts where you don't have readily accessible funds, then at a minimum it's worth considering allocating all of the fixed income portion of your portfolio into paying down debt at that kind of return.
by pacodelostigres
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?
Replies: 97
Views: 9876

Re: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?

I did #1. Paid off 15 year mortgage on house purchased in 2011 by 2013. I would be richer if I hadn't, but it was still a fantastic decision.
by pacodelostigres
Tue May 01, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daughter and Girlfriend, age 19, taking cross country road trip. Advice?
Replies: 187
Views: 15339

Re: Daughter and Girlfriend, age 19, taking cross country road trip. Advice?

As a dad, I would not only ask to be notified daily, I will demand it. Their experience and freedom will not be compromised if they take 5 seconds out of the day to send a text. You can even make a code word for them to send you once a day. The word will be their way of telling you everything is going fine. And it could also be used if things are not going well. Either way, it will give you peace of mind and them enough freedom to experience this trip and staying safe on the road. I would make this mandatory and if my daughter didn't agree to this, she would not be going. This is just hilarious. What control do you have over what they do? They're adults. When I turned 18 I moved away and and never looked back. I called my parents whenever ...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daughter and Girlfriend, age 19, taking cross country road trip. Advice?
Replies: 187
Views: 15339

Re: Daughter and Girlfriend, age 19, taking cross country road trip. Advice?

Ask them what they enjoyed most when they return, in case you want to make a similar trip some day.
by pacodelostigres
Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plow Guy Raised Rates
Replies: 112
Views: 12569

Re: Plow Guy Raised Rates

If there's so little supply that you can't find anyone else operating their business in an acceptable manner, I'd buy a truck and start my own business. That's an opportunity just looking for an investor.
by pacodelostigres
Fri Dec 29, 2017 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plow Guy Raised Rates
Replies: 112
Views: 12569

Re: Plow Guy Raised Rates

I'd refuse to pay him entirely based on the lack of notice about the increase and the refusal to work with you on it, until he lowered the invoice to the agreed upon amount up to that point. I would of course then pay him the correct amount in full as soon as I got the bill.

I'd also fire him immediately for any future business and let him know why. I'd also leave him a terrible review on every site his business has a presence.

That's nonsense and I refuse to work with people like that. If no one ever stands up to them they'll bully everyone they ever work with.
by pacodelostigres
Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Michigan Education Trust
Replies: 10
Views: 2506

Re: Michigan Education Trust

When I looked at it a year or two ago, I found that the premium they charge over current rates built in a very high rate of inflation immediately, which greatly reduced the present value of the option. Combine that with the reduced flexibility as compared to the 529, and the somewhat ambiguous terms around who controls the fund and what kind of guarantees you get from the state gov't / trustee, and we elected to fund the 529 through MESP instead.

We are looking at a 15 year term instead of 3, so I also had to consider the changing college cost landscape over a greater amount of time than you are addressing. The math pointed me to the 529 over any term though, so it just solidified my outcome in my opinion.
by pacodelostigres
Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I deserve it? [A new car]
Replies: 69
Views: 9690

Re: Do I deserve it?

It's a 17 Chevy Trax with AWD on a 3 year lease. I think I picked 10k miles, but 12k only pushed the payment to 190. It has four wheel disc brakes, basic power everything except seats, and a nice tech package that includes CarPlay. It comes with free maintenance for the lease term. At some point, this board is just too conservative. If you just look at it like a utility or monthly recurring cost of living, 185 bucks a month just can't be a bad decision for the average person with a modest professional job. You can lease without getting a BMW. My position is NOT that leasing is necessarily a bad idea or costs too much money. I just don't agree with your stated advantages of continually leasing a low end vehicle, versus buying & holding ...
by pacodelostigres
Wed May 31, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I deserve it? [A new car]
Replies: 69
Views: 9690

Re: Do I deserve it?

I lease a new vehicle with reasonable annual miles for 185/month with only 1st payment and taxes due at signing. Can you please share the make, model, and trim level? Also, how many miles do you get, and how long is the lease term? You aren't getting the nicest car out there for that monthly price, but the cheap car you get 9 years out is going to be a lot nicer than the 9 year old car that you buy today. I don't necessarily agree with this. I would argue that a new stripper Nissan Versa or Mitsubishi Mirage is NOT going to be nicer than 9 year old Accord, Maxima, Avalon, ect. It's a 17 Chevy Trax with AWD on a 3 year lease. I think I picked 10k miles, but 12k only pushed the payment to 190. It has four wheel disc brakes, basic power every...
by pacodelostigres
Tue May 30, 2017 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I deserve it? [A new car]
Replies: 69
Views: 9690

Re: Do I deserve it?

It's not a popular opinion on here, but leasing is worth considering. I lease a new vehicle with reasonable annual miles for 185/month with only 1st payment and taxes due at signing. If you leased at that rate for 12 years, which is how long some posters here say you're going to keep a new car that you buy outright, you'd spend ~$27k. You'd be under warranty the whole time, you'd never buy tires or brakes, and always have modern safety and technology. (Yes, your payments are probably going to be higher on subsequent leases due to inflation, but in real 2017 dollars it's all the same.) You also get the option to get rid of a car that is a total lemon, and you also get to buy out the lease if you fall in love with one of the cars along the wa...
by pacodelostigres
Fri Apr 29, 2016 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Women business clothes - what brands make the right impression?
Replies: 64
Views: 12614

Re: Women business clothes - what brands make the right impression?

I am deeply grateful that never in my life have I devoted as much time, energy, and money as most people posting on this thread have to clothes and makeup, nor has anyone suggested that I should. I would say, one one hundredth of the effort. Why is it that people who don't keep up with the Jones by wasting money on splashy houses and cars, do so with clothes and makeup? What's wrong with a clean face and comfortable, modest, warm enough clothes. If someone suggested that I needed to shell out major bucks on clothes and makeup to make it in business, I would say, I'm good at my work; it has nothing to do with wearing lipstick. 100x this. I work in banking and have a reasonably high paying management job. I spend about $25 on pants, and boug...
by pacodelostigres
Fri Apr 22, 2016 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think this is a bad time to enter the market? With the dow at 18,000
Replies: 89
Views: 12319

Re: Do you think this is a bad time to enter the market? With the dow at 18,000

I think this is the worst time to enter the market since 2008. That doesn't mean that it won't go up, but the risk / reward is the least favorable since pre recession by my metrics. I've sold all my US index funds in the last month and will wait for more favorable conditions to reinvest. I don't need to take risk at these prices. I don't think that it is completely unreasonable to say that this is the worst time to enter the market (or be in - what is the difference, anyway?). The trailing PE ratio of the S&P 500 is estimated to be at 24 by the end of this earnings season. But what are the alternatives to staying in the markets? Markets can do the most unexpected things. They may rise even further because of lack of alternative investm...
by pacodelostigres
Fri Apr 22, 2016 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think this is a bad time to enter the market? With the dow at 18,000
Replies: 89
Views: 12319

Re: Do you think this is a bad time to enter the market? With the dow at 18,000

Dave81 wrote:
pacodelostigres wrote:Unemployment is on an uptick.
Are you kidding? Unemployment is at 5.0%, the lowest it's been since 2008 before the crash. There are many discussions to be had about the current state of the economy, but that isn't one of them.
It was 4.9 the previous two months. Combined with employment as a percentage of the work force decreasing from 90.8% to 90.3% over the last five reporting periods, and there is certainly a discussion to be had about employment. And that's before you even start looking at the quality, pay, and hours of the jobs created.
by pacodelostigres
Fri Apr 22, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think this is a bad time to enter the market? With the dow at 18,000
Replies: 89
Views: 12319

Re: Do you think this is a bad time to enter the market? With the dow at 18,000

I think this is the worst time to enter the market since 2008. That doesn't mean that it won't go up, but the risk / reward is the least favorable since pre recession by my metrics. Unemployment is on an uptick. Retail sales, industrial production, employment, capacity utilization are all on a down trend, growth in personal income is stagnant and falling compared to prior year, valuations are sky high, and yields don't offer much upside even on an inflation adjusted basis. Earnings have been on a down trend for several quarters, with no response in prices. The only positives I see right now are that unemployment is still down on an annual rolling basis and that year over year retail sales are still growing, although just barely. I firmly be...
by pacodelostigres
Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest liquid cash other than a savings account?
Replies: 16
Views: 4838

Re: Where to invest liquid cash other than a savings account?

Peter Foley wrote:You might consider Vanguard Intermediate term Tax Exempt Admiral. Last I checked, the yield was about 2.9%
The SEC yield on VWIUX is currently 1.54%. Even high yield tax exempt Admiral (VWALX) is only yielding 2.62%.
by pacodelostigres
Tue Mar 29, 2016 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your current Cash to Investment ratio?
Replies: 112
Views: 15494

Re: What is your current Cash to Investment ratio?

Cash 47k : Investments $642k so about 7% of the total is cash. Those amounts exclude real estate, both home and investment property, or else cash would be under 5%.

I'm looking to buy more VTSAX at bargain prices, otherwise I normally only hold about 10k in cash.

Nowhere near retirement, unfortunately.
by pacodelostigres
Tue Mar 15, 2016 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LASIK surgery
Replies: 23
Views: 3940

Re: LASIK surgery

It was literally the worst decision of my life and I wouldn't recommend it to anyone. It was months before I could see properly and years later I still have issues with dry eyes and night vision. A lot of people have good outcomes but you're making a very large gamble with your vision. If your corrected vision isn't 20/20 then that's a different situation, but I was better than 20/20 with glasses and will never see that well again.
by pacodelostigres
Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate high yield vs TSM
Replies: 19
Views: 2530

Re: Corporate high yield vs TSM

ray.james wrote:Expected returns
Bond: fixed - 4.74
stock: 4%

Potential returns:
Bond: 4.74
Stock: >10%?

Potential returns:
Bond: 4.74
Stock: -50%?
by pacodelostigres
Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate high yield vs TSM
Replies: 19
Views: 2530

Re: Corporate high yield vs TSM

Yes, TSM carries more risk than either bond fund I mentioned.

This isn't an AA question. It's a question about how valuations and yields compare between bonds and equity right now. I posted this to theory, not help.

There was an inversion in risk premium that caused a lot of wise people to bail on equities back in the 90's, I believe. Including Bogle. I don't think we're at those types of valuations, but I'm wondering how close it is to breakeven right now. If it is breakeven, why not take less risk?
by pacodelostigres
Tue Nov 03, 2015 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate high yield vs TSM
Replies: 19
Views: 2530

Corporate high yield vs TSM

This isn't exactly a precise comparison, but if you can get an SEC yield on VWEAX of 5.74% then why would you buy TSM at any P/E greater than 17.4?

TSM carries more risk so it should be yielding some kind of ERP above corporate debt, right? I could see some impact from preferential tax treatment on dividends and LTCG, but both can be carried in tax advantaged space.

Edit: VLTCX (Long-Term Corporate Bond Index Admiral Shares) is SEC yield 4.78% --> P/E 20.9 if a high yield comparison isn't fair.
by pacodelostigres
Mon Oct 12, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to place emergency fund
Replies: 20
Views: 3261

Re: Where to place emergency fund

Based on the specifics of your question, if you haven't already you might want to read the Bogleheads wiki article Placing cash needs in a tax-advantaged account . PJW Yes, this is exactly what I'm thinking. I don't want to go with a CD ladder because I'm just going to get killed on taxes and the returns are unimpressive. The return on 3 months of expenses is not an issue. I keep that money in a checking account. The $50k represents almost 18 months of additional expenses. I want to keep this liquidity as an insurance, mostly because I've addressed other needs and can afford to do this next. The offset to the $50k in bonds in my Roth account will be a six figure taxable account in VTSAX, which will cover any offsets in a loss scenario. I'm...
by pacodelostigres
Fri Oct 09, 2015 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to place emergency fund
Replies: 20
Views: 3261

Where to place emergency fund

I keep three months expenses in cash. I have further ability to sell Roth contributions, draw a HELOC, etc., and we can maintain standard of living on one income. This 3 month amount is entirely adequate. I intend to keep another $50k invested in bonds with Vanguard rather than in a high yield savings account. This is an extension of my emergency fund. I just add it to my target bond allocation as a lump sum, or exclude it from the calculation depending on how you want to look at it. Same outcome. This will be split amongst an intermediate term bond fund, with smaller amounts in long term and high yield. My goal here is to beat inflation after taxes with an acceptable risk level. $50k is enough more than I would need in an emergency fund si...