Search found 150 matches

by pacodelostigres
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4486
Views: 400517

Re: Something Can't Be Right

The potential downsides are priced in. So are the potential upsides. Prices will change as potential becomes reality, whatever that turns out to be. I generally believe in EMH, but I disagree with you here on everything but your last point. This is not a set of circumstances that the models are wel...
by pacodelostigres
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 4486
Views: 400517

Re: Something Can't Be Right

What's the saying, markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent? I agree with your point though. The unemployment numbers are terrible, and are very likely an underestimate. The theory would say that the market expected worse and this is a pleasant surprise, but I just don't buy that...
by pacodelostigres
Wed Jun 26, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks .. talk me out of it
Replies: 31
Views: 2309

Re: Individual Stocks .. talk me out of it

I saw an article this morning that suggested some investors are recruiting satellite photography to look at traffic patterns, to evaluate changes in consumption habits and drive investments decisions.

Can you compete with that? If not, why try?
by pacodelostigres
Thu May 30, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good small SUV or AWD sedan recs
Replies: 39
Views: 2271

Re: Good small SUV or AWD sedan recs

Thank you all for the continued replies! Regarding street parking- parking isn't necessarily "tight", but certainly not plentiful at times. That being said, the EcoSport may be worth looking at (in addition to the Crosstrek, Mazda 3, and possible usual Honda/Toyota options), given the shorter overa...
by pacodelostigres
Wed May 15, 2019 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets
Replies: 367
Views: 52189

Re: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets

First Republic needs to be on your list. I just refinanced with them at 2.65%. Yes they use Pershing, but Pershing actually has some positives. For example you get access to DFA funds, no advisory fee required. How long do you have to keep the funds at First Republic for? I assume you'd have to kee...
by pacodelostigres
Tue May 14, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets
Replies: 367
Views: 52189

Re: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets

If you have several million dollars, why do you need/want a mortgage? Sounds like an avoidable headache. If I can borrow $1M at (in my case) 2.2% (including tax benefits), why wouldn’t I do that? Even conservative estimates of nominal market returns are at least 5%. If you had a paid off house, wou...
by pacodelostigres
Fri May 10, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Front loading washing machine "oversuds"
Replies: 12
Views: 955

Re: Front loading washing machine "oversuds"

We had this same problem. Cutting the amount of detergent in half fixed it immediately. Front loading HE washing machines use surprisingly very little detergent.
by pacodelostigres
Fri May 10, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets
Replies: 367
Views: 52189

Re: Relationship mortgage discounts for moving a million assets

If you have several million dollars, why do you need/want a mortgage? Sounds like an avoidable headache.
by pacodelostigres
Wed May 08, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Undergrad major in Economics or Finance?
Replies: 62
Views: 4441

Re: Undergrad major in Economics or Finance?

I have an undergrad in Econ and a graduate degree in Finance. My career prospects improved immediately when I got the Finance degree, as did my pay. The Econ degree was very limiting, and it wasn't about the BS vs MS.
by pacodelostigres
Thu Apr 25, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whats the Point of Climbing the Corporate Ladder?
Replies: 164
Views: 19016

Re: Whats the Point of Climbing the Corporate Ladder?

During my career, quite a while ago, I had to “let go” people who had basically retired on the job. Not saying the OP would do this but a mindset of low ambition, lack of improvement, complaining about the bosses, etc can often mean being unemployed in your early ‘50’s. If you aren’t progressing it...
by pacodelostigres
Tue Mar 26, 2019 8:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations
Replies: 65
Views: 4112

Re: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations

Like you, I am asking this respectfully, since you have put your credentials out there: Does "CSCS Certification" require a practical demonstration of in-person instructing people in lifting weights, or do you just have to pass a written test? My credentials are 40 years of practical experience and...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations
Replies: 65
Views: 4112

Re: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations

The crucial feature of adjustable or non-adjustable dumbbells is being able to change weight in small increments. I would want no less than 1.25 pounds at a time. If you get strong enough to do 10 presses at 10 pounds, a 2.5 pound increase is 25%, and that means, at the best, your form will deterio...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Mar 25, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations
Replies: 65
Views: 4112

Re: Adjustable dumbbell recommendations

That would be better but I'd probably want to go up to 50+ pounds per dumbbell. So seems like it could get costly. And they'll take up more space. I've never seen anyone using 50+ lbs per dumbbell. Sounds dangerous. Did you notice that the link to Dick's dumbbells had no dumbbell greater than 20 lb...
by pacodelostigres
Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to finance addition
Replies: 21
Views: 1112

Re: How to finance addition

From everything you've posted, you don't need it and can't afford it.
by pacodelostigres
Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: My wife's 2016 Mazda CX-5 lease is up. Now what?
Replies: 37
Views: 3201

Re: My wife's 2016 Mazda CX-5 lease is up. Now what?

I just got a 2019 Ford Escape SE Sport 4WD for 24k all in. We have a 2017 as well and it's a solid choice. I might have qualified for a few rebates beyond normal, but I'd expect anyone could get them for 27-28k.
by pacodelostigres
Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: next dollar of savings
Replies: 39
Views: 3543

Re: next dollar of savings

Also, to be clear, I'd only do that after maxing out tax advantaged space, getting all your available matches, HSA, Roth IRA, 529, emergency fund, etc. It's more valuable than taxable investing, but probably less than all of those other things. Also, depending on the rates, I'd pay down any revolvin...
by pacodelostigres
Tue Mar 05, 2019 9:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: next dollar of savings
Replies: 39
Views: 3543

Re: next dollar of savings

I'd pay down the mortgage if you're taking the standard deduction and you have no liquidity concerns.

If you can't deduct any interest, the 4.75% is a risk free after tax rate. You can't beat that anywhere, by a wide margin. I'd be thrilled to get that kind of return right now.
by pacodelostigres
Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation - Cash Position
Replies: 18
Views: 2158

Re: Asset Allocation - Cash Position

We have a small six figure cash balance and don't count it as part of asset allocation. That's based on the money being set aside for several specific purposes: 30k for 529 contributions to be made within 3 years, 12k for home maintenance (mostly a new roof within five years), 40k for an emergency f...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Mar 04, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to find inexpensive unlocked phone
Replies: 56
Views: 4519

Re: Where to find inexpensive unlocked phone

I just ported my Google Voice number to Sprint to get the Kickstart Unlimited plan for $25 / month (~$30 after fees/taxes), and bought a Moto G6 unlocked for $150 to go with it, through Best Buy. It's not T-Mobile, but you won't find a better deal. It took a couple extra steps to do it this way, but...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Mar 04, 2019 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Convince aging parents to pay for snow removal
Replies: 64
Views: 4148

Re: Convince aging parents to pay for snow removal

They're adults and have told you no, politely. Mind your own business and stay out of it.
by pacodelostigres
Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Capital
Replies: 20
Views: 1572

Re: Personal Capital

You could just not give them your phone number?
by pacodelostigres
Thu Jan 31, 2019 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Were you 100% debt free at retirement
Replies: 163
Views: 12233

Re: Were you 100% debt free at retirement

We loathe debt. I think we were debt free by the time I was 34. No regrets.

We have bucketed savings for things like cars, home improvement, vacations, and annual expenses. We'll pay cash for any large future expenditures.
by pacodelostigres
Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?
Replies: 205
Views: 35595

Re: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?

Man, this sounds eerily like my wife and I, minus the kid(s). We’re 32 and 29, but will hopefully have a kid by 35, so we’ll probably be where you are by then. Income is about 125k, but we live on <3.25k/mo. And as much as I want expensive taste, I can’t shake Michelob Ultra and Wild Turkey, and sh...
by pacodelostigres
Fri Jan 25, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How will you spend your retirement money?
Replies: 86
Views: 10750

Re: How will you spend your retirement money?

I plan to be pretty much a lazy bum. Sleep in, then surf the Internet for awhile before taking a long shower, and then eating breakfast somewhere around the vicinity of noon. Then, in the early afternoon, run any errands that need to be handled, and then come home to do a combination of the followi...
by pacodelostigres
Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?
Replies: 205
Views: 35595

Re: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?

Left college with significant negative net worth, poor families, and no safety net. Waited until 35 to have a kid, LBYM, aggressively paid off all debt including mortgage then rerouted money to index funds. Started in jobs that paid about 30k/yr each but worked hard and were very aggressive about ge...
by pacodelostigres
Tue Oct 23, 2018 2:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?
Replies: 97
Views: 8706

Re: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?

I see what you're saying, in your first paragraph. Why formulate based on marginal tax rate though, as opposed to LTCG? Because comparable riskless assets usually pay an interest rate rather than capital gains. A comparison between the return on paying down your mortgage and the equity market isn't...
by pacodelostigres
Tue Oct 23, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?
Replies: 97
Views: 8706

Re: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?

Mortgage interest is a lot less deductible than it used to be for the average taxpayer. It's a risk free after tax return for the portion that is not deductible. If you're paying a 4% mortgage rate and paying 33% in marginal income taxes, and you can't deduct the interest, you're getting 6% risk fr...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?
Replies: 97
Views: 8706

Re: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?

Mortgage interest is a lot less deductible than it used to be for the average taxpayer. It's a risk free after tax return for the portion that is not deductible. If you're paying a 4% mortgage rate and paying 33% in marginal income taxes, and you can't deduct the interest, you're getting 6% risk fre...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?
Replies: 97
Views: 8706

Re: For those who paid off house - how did you do it?

I did #1. Paid off 15 year mortgage on house purchased in 2011 by 2013. I would be richer if I hadn't, but it was still a fantastic decision.
by pacodelostigres
Tue May 01, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daughter and Girlfriend, age 19, taking cross country road trip. Advice?
Replies: 187
Views: 13224

Re: Daughter and Girlfriend, age 19, taking cross country road trip. Advice?

As a dad, I would not only ask to be notified daily, I will demand it. Their experience and freedom will not be compromised if they take 5 seconds out of the day to send a text. You can even make a code word for them to send you once a day. The word will be their way of telling you everything is go...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Daughter and Girlfriend, age 19, taking cross country road trip. Advice?
Replies: 187
Views: 13224

Re: Daughter and Girlfriend, age 19, taking cross country road trip. Advice?

Ask them what they enjoyed most when they return, in case you want to make a similar trip some day.
by pacodelostigres
Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plow Guy Raised Rates
Replies: 112
Views: 11282

Re: Plow Guy Raised Rates

If there's so little supply that you can't find anyone else operating their business in an acceptable manner, I'd buy a truck and start my own business. That's an opportunity just looking for an investor.
by pacodelostigres
Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:56 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plow Guy Raised Rates
Replies: 112
Views: 11282

Re: Plow Guy Raised Rates

I'd refuse to pay him entirely based on the lack of notice about the increase and the refusal to work with you on it, until he lowered the invoice to the agreed upon amount up to that point. I would of course then pay him the correct amount in full as soon as I got the bill. I'd also fire him immedi...
by pacodelostigres
Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Michigan Education Trust
Replies: 10
Views: 1799

Re: Michigan Education Trust

When I looked at it a year or two ago, I found that the premium they charge over current rates built in a very high rate of inflation immediately, which greatly reduced the present value of the option. Combine that with the reduced flexibility as compared to the 529, and the somewhat ambiguous terms...
by pacodelostigres
Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I deserve it? [A new car]
Replies: 69
Views: 8344

Re: Do I deserve it?

It's a 17 Chevy Trax with AWD on a 3 year lease. I think I picked 10k miles, but 12k only pushed the payment to 190. It has four wheel disc brakes, basic power everything except seats, and a nice tech package that includes CarPlay. It comes with free maintenance for the lease term. At some point, t...
by pacodelostigres
Wed May 31, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I deserve it? [A new car]
Replies: 69
Views: 8344

Re: Do I deserve it?

I lease a new vehicle with reasonable annual miles for 185/month with only 1st payment and taxes due at signing. Can you please share the make, model, and trim level? Also, how many miles do you get, and how long is the lease term? You aren't getting the nicest car out there for that monthly price,...
by pacodelostigres
Tue May 30, 2017 8:38 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do I deserve it? [A new car]
Replies: 69
Views: 8344

Re: Do I deserve it?

It's not a popular opinion on here, but leasing is worth considering. I lease a new vehicle with reasonable annual miles for 185/month with only 1st payment and taxes due at signing. If you leased at that rate for 12 years, which is how long some posters here say you're going to keep a new car that ...
by pacodelostigres
Fri Apr 29, 2016 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Women business clothes - what brands make the right impression?
Replies: 64
Views: 11407

Re: Women business clothes - what brands make the right impression?

I am deeply grateful that never in my life have I devoted as much time, energy, and money as most people posting on this thread have to clothes and makeup, nor has anyone suggested that I should. I would say, one one hundredth of the effort. Why is it that people who don't keep up with the Jones by...
by pacodelostigres
Fri Apr 22, 2016 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think this is a bad time to enter the market? With the dow at 18,000
Replies: 89
Views: 11444

Re: Do you think this is a bad time to enter the market? With the dow at 18,000

I think this is the worst time to enter the market since 2008. That doesn't mean that it won't go up, but the risk / reward is the least favorable since pre recession by my metrics. I've sold all my US index funds in the last month and will wait for more favorable conditions to reinvest. I don't ne...
by pacodelostigres
Fri Apr 22, 2016 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think this is a bad time to enter the market? With the dow at 18,000
Replies: 89
Views: 11444

Re: Do you think this is a bad time to enter the market? With the dow at 18,000

Unemployment is on an uptick. Are you kidding? Unemployment is at 5.0%, the lowest it's been since 2008 before the crash. There are many discussions to be had about the current state of the economy, but that isn't one of them. It was 4.9 the previous two months. Combined with employment as a percen...
by pacodelostigres
Fri Apr 22, 2016 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think this is a bad time to enter the market? With the dow at 18,000
Replies: 89
Views: 11444

Re: Do you think this is a bad time to enter the market? With the dow at 18,000

I think this is the worst time to enter the market since 2008. That doesn't mean that it won't go up, but the risk / reward is the least favorable since pre recession by my metrics. Unemployment is on an uptick. Retail sales, industrial production, employment, capacity utilization are all on a down ...
by pacodelostigres
Wed Mar 30, 2016 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to invest liquid cash other than a savings account?
Replies: 16
Views: 4590

Re: Where to invest liquid cash other than a savings account?

Peter Foley wrote:You might consider Vanguard Intermediate term Tax Exempt Admiral. Last I checked, the yield was about 2.9%
The SEC yield on VWIUX is currently 1.54%. Even high yield tax exempt Admiral (VWALX) is only yielding 2.62%.
by pacodelostigres
Tue Mar 29, 2016 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your current Cash to Investment ratio?
Replies: 112
Views: 14171

Re: What is your current Cash to Investment ratio?

Cash 47k : Investments $642k so about 7% of the total is cash. Those amounts exclude real estate, both home and investment property, or else cash would be under 5%. I'm looking to buy more VTSAX at bargain prices, otherwise I normally only hold about 10k in cash. Nowhere near retirement, unfortunate...
by pacodelostigres
Tue Mar 15, 2016 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: LASIK surgery
Replies: 23
Views: 3549

Re: LASIK surgery

It was literally the worst decision of my life and I wouldn't recommend it to anyone. It was months before I could see properly and years later I still have issues with dry eyes and night vision. A lot of people have good outcomes but you're making a very large gamble with your vision. If your corre...
by pacodelostigres
Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate high yield vs TSM
Replies: 19
Views: 2333

Re: Corporate high yield vs TSM

ray.james wrote:Expected returns
Bond: fixed - 4.74
stock: 4%

Potential returns:
Bond: 4.74
Stock: >10%?

Potential returns:
Bond: 4.74
Stock: -50%?
by pacodelostigres
Tue Nov 03, 2015 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate high yield vs TSM
Replies: 19
Views: 2333

Re: Corporate high yield vs TSM

Yes, TSM carries more risk than either bond fund I mentioned. This isn't an AA question. It's a question about how valuations and yields compare between bonds and equity right now. I posted this to theory, not help. There was an inversion in risk premium that caused a lot of wise people to bail on e...
by pacodelostigres
Tue Nov 03, 2015 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate high yield vs TSM
Replies: 19
Views: 2333

Corporate high yield vs TSM

This isn't exactly a precise comparison, but if you can get an SEC yield on VWEAX of 5.74% then why would you buy TSM at any P/E greater than 17.4? TSM carries more risk so it should be yielding some kind of ERP above corporate debt, right? I could see some impact from preferential tax treatment on ...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Oct 12, 2015 10:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to place emergency fund
Replies: 20
Views: 3038

Re: Where to place emergency fund

Based on the specifics of your question, if you haven't already you might want to read the Bogleheads wiki article Placing cash needs in a tax-advantaged account . PJW Yes, this is exactly what I'm thinking. I don't want to go with a CD ladder because I'm just going to get killed on taxes and the r...
by pacodelostigres
Fri Oct 09, 2015 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to place emergency fund
Replies: 20
Views: 3038

Where to place emergency fund

I keep three months expenses in cash. I have further ability to sell Roth contributions, draw a HELOC, etc., and we can maintain standard of living on one income. This 3 month amount is entirely adequate. I intend to keep another $50k invested in bonds with Vanguard rather than in a high yield savin...
by pacodelostigres
Mon Jun 01, 2015 1:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Your opinion on realistic income to live in a $1 million home?
Replies: 144
Views: 55095

Re: Your opinion on realistic income to live in a $1 million home?

I really like this forum, but reading threads like this makes me think that many of you should answer questions as asked more and preach less. If preaching prevents a terrible financial decision, then it is worth it. To me, that is the point of this board. Many posters ask the wrong questions. The ...