Search found 1775 matches

by daryll40
Sun Feb 22, 2009 7:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri - Quarterly Conference Call Link
Replies: 20
Views: 4378

It's a good call. Very confident that this is just another recession as usual, albeit perhaps deeper. And that we'll recover. And to stay the course (as per the ORIGINAL definition).

Just my synopsis.
by daryll40
Sun Feb 22, 2009 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stay-the-Course or Sell-and-Buy-later?
Replies: 93
Views: 16933

I said it in an earlier post - you are ordinarily a very reasonable poster, but on this subject you are obsessed and have lost your clarity. I would suggest you let it drop and let some people who share your opinion, but who can discuss it rather than argue and get personal, work this out. We would...
by daryll40
Sun Feb 22, 2009 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stay-the-Course or Sell-and-Buy-later?
Replies: 93
Views: 16933

The quotes are good reinforcement in these trying times. But I do question the credibility of the poster. Here is what he said on Dec 30, 2008, about the 30th post down on this thread: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=30085 I intend to stay our course--which includes getting out of st...
by daryll40
Sun Feb 22, 2009 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stay-the-Course or Sell-and-Buy-later?
Replies: 93
Views: 16933

Re: Stay-the-Course or Sell-and-Buy-later?

--Copy of lengthy thread deleted to save bandwith--

Wait a minute Taylor......(you KNOW where I am going...)

Daryll
by daryll40
Sun Feb 22, 2009 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is this "Plan B"
Replies: 15
Views: 2426

Plan A: You are a wide-receiver in hopes of doing your part in gaining numerous catches and even a touchdown during an important playoff game. You will try your best to follow your team's strategy and plans on attacking the game and the opponents. Plan B: The unexpected happens -- you get hit akwar...
by daryll40
Sun Feb 22, 2009 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on CNBC Very Clear
Replies: 30
Views: 7454

Well, if I'm gonna hold total stock market forever, then I really don't care what the price is or even whether it drops to zero value. Seems a stretch to interpret Jack Bogle saying "hold forever" means invest and never draw down the investment. He is saying to forget market timing on that investme...
by daryll40
Sat Feb 21, 2009 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Be greedy when others are fearful...
Replies: 59
Views: 9284

Gregory wrote:
Well, is it "sell when stocks get frothy," or is it "your age in bonds?" :)
Rebalancing IS selling froth. It's not at all incompatible with age in bonds.
by daryll40
Sat Feb 21, 2009 2:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11725

WTF do you think you missed? Correct Taylor? Why? I'm pretty good judge of people and im pretty sure he was practicing what he preached over his long term investing knowledge. Remember he too got burn'ed buy investing through a ML Broker years before he signed up with VG with a AA he was comfortabl...
by daryll40
Sat Feb 21, 2009 8:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11725

The warning ALSO should state that at anything you read in the book is subject to instant revision under the guise of a "Plan B". Either call Taylor (and all those who read what he wrote differently than you) dishonest, daryll, or let it go. I don't think Taylor is dishonest at all. I think he is a...
by daryll40
Fri Feb 20, 2009 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on CNBC Very Clear
Replies: 30
Views: 7454

Bogle on CNBC Very Clear

Mr. Bogle was on CNBC today and he was very clear. He recommends owning the total market with a holding period of FOREVER. And before that you have to have the right asset allocation and his rule of thumb is age in bonds. He made NO mention of any of the alleged Plan B stuff. http://www.cnbc.com/id/...
by daryll40
Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11725

Adrian Nenu wrote:You either practice conservative buy & hold and are able to ride out a bear market or you know about the inverted yield curve and avoid most of the bear market damage.

Adrian
anenu@tampabay.rr.com
Yes but haven't inverted yield curves correctly predicted 20 of the last 6 bear markets?
by daryll40
Fri Feb 20, 2009 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Problem is Mark-to-Market
Replies: 29
Views: 3941

I also have been following this controversy. I think there is a point that some wiggle room in asset valuation is probably necessary, but I also don't like the idea of perpetuating fiction. That being said, if changing the M2M rules was the magic elixir, don't you think they would have jumped on it ...
by daryll40
Fri Feb 20, 2009 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11725

Bharat wrote: And it also does not mean that the next time you will make the right guess. It is difficult to make an investment plan and strategy which is relies on luck.
All investment plans rely somewhat on luck. What do you propose does not?
by daryll40
Fri Feb 20, 2009 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11725

Re: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa

Sometimes the smart thing is to panic. Staying the course, although it is difficult and takes courage, may also be a stupid thing to do. In my opinion, the problem with the Bogleheadist dogma is that they thought they had the problem knocked and, having learned the one big lesson, didn't have to pa...
by daryll40
Fri Feb 20, 2009 6:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investing Knowledge: The first are last and vice versa
Replies: 91
Views: 11725

I think there should warning labels on the introductory pages of all Bogleheads books. It should say: Warning: The passive, long-term investing strategy you are about to read, while quite easy to learn, is exceedingly difficult to follow. If you are easily prone to feelings of envy followed by doub...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 19, 2009 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you follow dealer advice on old car maintainance?
Replies: 35
Views: 5529

No. Once the car is old I change the oil and whatever wears out. My wife has a thing for belts, so we occasionally replace those before they break. Under 100K I'm much more likely to do "routine" maintenance. This post, IMHO, is the bottom line. Be careful, however, of "dealer maintenance schedules...
by daryll40
Wed Feb 18, 2009 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Plan B Market Timing?
Replies: 67
Views: 12303

jeffyscott wrote:
ddb wrote:I have found that using a 243-day moving average is optimal.
WRONG :!:

247 days is optimal. :wink:
Until it isn't.
by daryll40
Wed Feb 18, 2009 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors in 1929 Whole By 1936
Replies: 18
Views: 2906

Investors in 1929 Whole By 1936

Somewhere in the not too distant past there was a post here refuting the common thinking (myth?) that investors in 1929 did not get made whole until after WW2. I seem to recall Larry or someone else showing that the S&P500 investor was whole by 1936. I need to find a reference for that proof, but ha...
by daryll40
Tue Feb 17, 2009 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: delay filing until march
Replies: 8
Views: 2181

I don't go as far as Livesoft, but I agree that corrected 1099 forms have come as late, for me, as April 9th. I've learned to never file before April 15th for that reason.
by daryll40
Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another Paradigm: Plan C for retirees?
Replies: 54
Views: 7706

Just to retire and be delivered from hard work was retirement enough for many of my father's generation. He was very content just to "chill." He needed no costly diversions. Not my generation, or at least I speak for myself. Sam I Am I am guessing that this will all end in people working to a "norm...
by daryll40
Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another Paradigm: Plan C for retirees?
Replies: 54
Views: 7706

Plan D: SPIA about 30% of my accumulation, and then SWR from a 40:60 AA. With the higher return from the SPIA, a 3% SWR gives a greater annual net income than a 4% SWR from the entire accumulation. Rick I've actually thought that when (if!) I reach age 65 I might annuitize some too. But what you're...
by daryll40
Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why This Recession Seems Worse Than '70s and '80s
Replies: 68
Views: 10365

I recently read that next year the deficit will be approaching 15% of GDP and the prior record was 6% at the end of World War Two. And at least there we had the tailwind of renewed confidence in America (from winning the war) and returning soldiers anxious to start families and get on with life. Whi...
by daryll40
Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not Buy-Hold-and-Insure?
Replies: 49
Views: 7172

Ariel wrote: 4) Probably the best way to protect against market losses for true Bogleheads, as another poster suggested, is simply to reduce one's equity exposure.
There is no free lunch and the above quote is the bottom line here really. Anything else is really just fooling yourself.
by daryll40
Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not Buy-Hold-and-Insure?
Replies: 49
Views: 7172

Re: Why not Buy-Hold-and-Insure?

[Taleb] asks: why do people insure their million dollar house from unexpected loss, but don't insure their million dollar investment portfolio? Does anyone have a convincing answer to this? But many folks do insure their million dollar investment portfolio simply by buying an annuity. Of course the...
by daryll40
Sat Feb 14, 2009 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not Buy-Hold-and-Insure?
Replies: 49
Views: 7172

Re: Why not Buy-Hold-and-Insure?

Verde wrote: How much should the average investor pay for this insurance (expressed as the % reduction in expected annualised return)?
That is where the analogy to insuring your house falls short. Homeowners insurance is relatively cheap. Insurance on a portfolio using options is very expensive.
by daryll40
Fri Feb 13, 2009 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why This Recession Seems Worse Than '70s and '80s
Replies: 68
Views: 10365

The difference this time, even from the Great Depression, is that we're ALREADY gazillions in debt. So borrowing our way out to goose the economy is tougher this time. And even if it works the consequences might be as bad or worse than the disease.
by daryll40
Fri Feb 13, 2009 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan B: Is there a new Bogleheads paradigm?
Replies: 148
Views: 20409

Instead a Plan A and a Plan B, how about a Plan AB where you specify a percentage decline in your portfolio were you bail and sell all your stock low. Suppose you specify that you sell all your stock after a 20% decline in your portfolio, as in the example grayfox posted. If you added this 20% cons...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 5:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan B: Is there a new Bogleheads paradigm?
Replies: 148
Views: 20409

Kitces work is really the missing link in the SWR stuff. Because he solves the valuation problem. Before Kitces, there was the problem that someone retiring in December 2007 could take $40,000 from his $1M stash and increase it for inflation forever....and someone retiring exactly one year later cou...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 4:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [poll] Health Care Costs
Replies: 34
Views: 5330

I have some chronic health issues myself. And have for years. I've found that it's a balance between overdoctoring and underdoctoring. If I did everything suggested, I'd be going to docs all the time and having expensive tests ad nauseam. My heart is not one of my problems but I had a $5000 (actual ...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 3:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan B: Is there a new Bogleheads paradigm?
Replies: 148
Views: 20409

These ideas remind me of William Bengen's "Floor and Ceiling" approach. In other words, start out with $40K based on current portfolio balance of $1MM. But if the portfolio declines to $750K, reduce withdrawal to a "Floor" amount of $30K. http://bobsfiles.home.att.net/VariableWithdrawals.html#benge...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 3:35 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan B: Is there a new Bogleheads paradigm?
Replies: 148
Views: 20409

An alternative plan would be to cut income to 30,000 and stay with the 50/50 AA. That would be a 4% rate from $750,000. That has an almost 95% 30-year success rate according to the Trinity study. If I understood Trinity correctly, you would not need to cut your spending to 4% of the current portfol...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 23849

Here is another from November 12th, again no mention of Plan B: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=27528&start=0 We all wish we had moved the stock portion of our portfolios into bonds and cash when the bear market began in October 2007. Hindsight is easy. The only thing worse is to sel...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 23849

Here! I found the exchange that I remembered from last fall. October 24th to be specific: http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=26573&start=0 I asked: This question is for Taylor: Taylor, you stated before that, like me, your asset allocation (before this meltdown) was 60/40. The way I und...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 23849

The point of this thread originates in questions people have over statements by both Mr. Larimore and maybe Mr. Bogle that suggest there are circumstances where investors should go permanently to 100% bonds, in contradiction to what most people would have thought the message was. Especially open to...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 12:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [poll] Health Care Costs
Replies: 34
Views: 5330

My 92 year old uncle doctor shopped a few years ago for a knee replacement. After about 4 docs he found one and had the $50,000 Medicare paid surgery (actual amount paid, not just the inflated "billed amount"). He's no better and in fact got worse. I suspect the pain was/is really arthritic sciatica...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Plan C
Replies: 19
Views: 3536

Re: PLAN C

Stick to your IPS, unless of course you panic, wait a second, include a provision in your IPS to alter your IPS when you panic, yeah, like a Plan B, and of course if the mrkt. recovers a bit, and your panic subsides, well then, go to plan C. Yeah, that's the ticket. Gad- The solution : don't panic....
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Stay the Course"..What Does It Mean
Replies: 42
Views: 6245

There have, indeed, been a few inconsistencies in some of Bogle's comments published over the years. His lack of clarity on the need to rebalance or not and when and how is one of them. I will at least give him that he has not ever, to my knowledge, changed his basic advice. He's never backtracked a...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 12:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan B: Is there a new Bogleheads paradigm?
Replies: 148
Views: 20409

Reply to Taylor's Post, four up: "Don't invest..." is an instruction for something not to do in the first place. It's proactive. "Plan B" is a not proactive but merely a REMEDY (and not really a "plan" at all) for not following the "Don't invest more than.." So if one is 85 years old and had 60% equ...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 12:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Q: Mutual Fund Basis
Replies: 7
Views: 1245

Answering yes to both 1 and 2 is logically inconsistent. If recently purchased shares through reinvestment were short term in 2008, they were short term in 2004. The law did not change. It is my understanding that the 2004 sale of "X" shares was small enough that at least "X" shares were held long ...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Risks of fixed annuities
Replies: 54
Views: 8248

My mother has annuities purchased last year in Florida where she has been a resident since 2003. There is a very good possibility that she will move back here to Pennsylvania within the next few years. If she does that and buys more annuities, does she get the benefit of guarantees from both states,...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Tax Q: Mutual Fund Basis
Replies: 7
Views: 1245

Here's my stab at it. 1. It doesn't matter if you did it correctly or not. SOL is passed. I do think they were all long term and you did it correct. 2. Yes, you must separate out LT and ST shares. You must still use average cost basis for this tax return. It is trivial to add up the number of share...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 23849

Nice selective editing there, here is an alternative edit: You have stated that you have not touched your asset allocation since March of 2000. That second article states that you sold stocks in 2002 Does that make his inconsistency clear enough? What Bogle and Larimore do has no bearing on how my ...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [poll] What % of your portfolio is in bonds/fixed income?
Replies: 48
Views: 9432

Re: [poll] What percentage of your portfolio is in bonds?

runner26 wrote:
deepdrive wrote:Currently, what percentage of your portfolio is in bonds?
Are you classifying CD's as a bond asset class?
I would. I might restate the question to be "fixed income".
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [poll] Health Care Costs
Replies: 34
Views: 5330

Here is the elephant in the health care cost room: New technology, drugs, surgery and treatments can prevent costly illnesses and save the system big money. Or can it? Because eventually we're STILL gonna all die and most of the big expenses are in the last year of life. So while we may live longer ...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 23849

Everyone has thought about the Great Depression. Its been part of the analysis forever. If the current recession was really something not in the historical record, then perhaps you would have a point. So does your Plan A include contingencies for other events in US history (only 233 years, which me...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan B: Is there a new Bogleheads paradigm?
Replies: 148
Views: 20409

50/50 stocks/bonds with a 2.5% withdrawal rate most surely can survive almost indefinitely? 50/50 would seem to be higher risk than 20/80, but that is not certain Assuming firecalc is a useful guide to the future, using equities plus 5 year treasuries, at 2.5% withdrawal rate, the 45 year survival ...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 23849

Everyone has thought about the Great Depression. Its been part of the analysis forever. If the current recession was really something not in the historical record, then perhaps you would have a point. So does your Plan A include contingencies for other events in US history (only 233 years, which me...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PlanB Redux:Let's Reconcile Bogle's Advice!Taylor
Replies: 179
Views: 23849

Threads are a lot more interesting when they're about an idea and not a poster. Also, I've publicly considered a lot of ideas on this forum that I've never acted on. Just because Taylor mentioned a Plan B doesn't mean he will actually use it. And of course, one person's IPS/AA is his own business. ...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Risks of fixed annuities
Replies: 54
Views: 8248

Last summer we bot two annuities for my mother. Before the first payment was even received AIG (one of the carriers) almost went bust. Fortunately ma is getting her checks, but the point is that there really is no way to be sure. And what's safe today may not be safe in 10 years from now. If you're ...
by daryll40
Thu Feb 12, 2009 9:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Plan B: Is there a new Bogleheads paradigm?
Replies: 148
Views: 20409

I'm hoping 20-25/80-75 (generally market weight), munis in taxable and mostly TIPS in tax-deferred, with a 2.5% or so withdrawal rate (lower if social security survives), will work over the long-term I must have missed this, thanks for bringing it up. Is it the asset allocation that is helping this...