Search found 293 matches

by postingname
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?
Replies: 34
Views: 6598

Re: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?

No need to give up entirely on Zero Hedge , since there is some good stuff among the junk. And sometimes it's fun just reading the hilarious titles and word plays ("Benny and the Inkjets") Just don't let ZH influence your investing. Funny Zero Hedge quote from today: "Market Rebounds But Marketwatc...
by postingname
Wed Oct 15, 2014 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 8911

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

It's hard to use pre-FED periods as representative to the options we have now. Back then, we didn't have Recessions or Depressions -- we had PANICS! Economies would fall off cliffs, millions of people would die, empires would fall. This is, and I imagine always will be, the history of the world, as...
by postingname
Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 8911

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

Thanks Mossy. That was helpful.
by postingname
Tue Oct 14, 2014 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 8911

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

The system has corrective mechanisms (taxes on CG/dividends/interest/etc) to avoid this imbalance from permanently tipping the system over but you can see an obvious example in the most recent "jobless recovery" phase. Mossy, I'm almost afraid to post this since it sounds so obvious to me (as a non...
by postingname
Tue Oct 14, 2014 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does the stock market beat inflation?
Replies: 62
Views: 8911

Re: Why does the stock market beat inflation?

If we assume that the stock market should probably beat inflation (or anything else) over the long term, we should understand WHY. I did a Google search on "stocks as an inflation hedge", which I think is more neutral than "stocks always beating inflation". A number of articles came up, This one ma...
by postingname
Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

It's a good point. Coates's THBDAW profiles a Wall Street investment bank that has three trading floors: bonds (fixed income), currencies and commodities. Each department consists of flow traders and salespeople. The latter are responsible for convincing various institutions to use the bank's servi...
by postingname
Mon Oct 13, 2014 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

I think, but do not know, that it's impossible to be an active investor and not to be emotionally involved. No, that is a wrong generalization. It can apply to some traders , espeically if they are short-term traders. That's because they are constantly engaged in this activity and have little time ...
by postingname
Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

HOWEVER, Even if the trading skill can be identified and isolated, it is counteracted by other neurological factors, such as those creating the winner effect (THBDAW, pp.27-29). As one wins (in a battlefield or in a market), his confidence rises--eventually leading to overconfidence and reckless be...
by postingname
Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

So, you don't believe that large profits draw in more competition? More profits draw in more competition? No, that's not something I normally encounter. Smaller or specialized markets cannot, by definition, accommodate large investors like institutional investors because their trades would have mar...
by postingname
Mon Oct 13, 2014 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

- active-expert investors suffer from overconfidence. Victoria, I agreed with your overall breakdown in your earlier ipost. But now that we're examining the details, the definitions need tweaking. Expert investors are by definition not overconfident. Egos have no place in trading/investing and good...
by postingname
Mon Oct 13, 2014 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Excellent points, Victoria. I agree with all of them. Tadamsmar, I don't see experts getting squeezed in the market areas where I reside. There are simply too many active-naive investors around to exploit for their behavioral errors and simple lack of knowledge. Obviously, it's easier in the types o...
by postingname
Sun Oct 12, 2014 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Thank-you moderators for re-opening the thread. That shows you have respect for intellectual interchange. In return, I'll dial down the language that may make some of the folks here uncomfortable. It was all in fun (for me anyway), but even someone who normally supports me thought I was getting a li...
by postingname
Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Johno, I have a bit of trouble deciphering what you are saying. It's a matter of termnology, posting style, format and so on. Basically, I'm having trouble finding the main points you're making. I'm hoping my 80%/20% guestimate given above helps explain what I think and helps address what you may or...
by postingname
Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Even the active ETF investor will have to pay more trading costs when switching from one ETF to another and more expense ratio if using higher cost sector ETFs. These days there's really no excuse not to get free trades or at least commission-fee ETFs. And as long as one uses limit orders, they avo...
by postingname
Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

I am interested in hearing which actively managed equity funds you believe are "superior"? Thanks, Bily There aren't that many in the LC area (that I know of) and for that reason and to avoid asset bloat, it's not really a good idea to have them mentioned on a well-read baord. Sorry to be opaque lk...
by postingname
Thu Oct 09, 2014 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

1. Not important ones that would materially change it, and it's the central point of the BH philosophy as I see it,... Actually, I think this gets at the crux of the issue of the arguments over active vs passive. There are exactly 8,732 types of active investors (more or less ;)). Which type are yo...
by postingname
Thu Oct 09, 2014 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Sorry, it wasn't just "bogleheads". It was "forced into", "converted", "Conclude", "study", "wiring of the brain", "In practice" and probably a few others I missed. Again, all these quotes leave me "unsure" about what all the quotes actually mean. Hi leonard, That's just my style. But I'll break it...
by postingname
Thu Oct 09, 2014 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

1. Not important ones that would materially change it, and it's the central point of the BH philosophy as I see it,... Actually, I think this gets at the crux of the issue of the arguments over active vs passive. There are exactly 8,732 types of active investors (more or less ;)). Which type are yo...
by postingname
Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Again it's axiomatic that all investors (invested $'s that is) in an index earn the index return minus expenses. If expenses of the index fund investors are lower on average than those of active investor, their net return must be higher than average active investor. There are many assumptions imbed...
by postingname
Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

I'm trying to "figure out" the "purpose" of all the extra "quotes". Can you explain who is being quoted. Written communications are notorious for being misinterpreted, even when messages are carefully composed. Quotation marks emphasize words and expressions, sometimes pointing out their ambiguity....
by postingname
Thu Oct 09, 2014 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Tell me, why do you PERSONALLY think it's so hard to beat the market? ... I see. You decline to defend assertions you make, and insist I defend ones I've not made. No, thanks. PJW Phinieas, One of the reasons I post on this board is because I had always thought "Bogleheads" was a cult. When I final...
by postingname
Thu Oct 09, 2014 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

I do not see the justification for the logical leaps made here, nor what it has to do with index investing. Hi Alex, I'm just a casual browser of this board and don't read academic studies. The political background that Cullen brought up just leapt out at me because realistically, MANY theories and...
by postingname
Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

... I can :) but that's another show, as they say. ... Let's make it this show. Show us your brokerage statements. All of them. Prove it. This isn't to single you out. Many posters have made your claim. None have backed it up with evidence. I'm not callin' you a liar. I'm callin' me a skeptic. PJW ...
by postingname
Wed Oct 08, 2014 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Is index investing rooted in Fama's work? This is what Cullen says: "Actually, my issue with much of the foundation of "passive indexing" is that it is based on general equilibrium and Chicago School economics." Behavioral Economics is the most interesting branch of the modern economics I agree. I ...
by postingname
Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

As mentioned before somewhat obliquely, apparently, some of the theories/hypotheses on which Bogleheadism is based may have a political basis...Efficient Market Hypothesis (apparently) being associated with Free-Market economic policies and so on. [Moderators, please don't delete. I think, if this ...
by postingname
Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

If the question is passive indexing versus active selection, I think that's been covered. Mark me down as saying the former is unbeatable, subject to the following caveat. Bogleheadism rests on a belief that the future will look more or less like the past, in that US stock and bond markets will tre...
by postingname
Tue Oct 07, 2014 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Somewhere in Bogle's writing there is one qualitative value, we have to trust that the domestic and international economies will grow, otherwise what is the point of investing? There is no board in the world that doesn't want to grow their company. As an active investor, I find it helps to have a m...
by postingname
Tue Oct 07, 2014 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Former Secretary of Defense Donald Runsfeld got a lot of press with this one: ...there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't kno...
by postingname
Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Former Secretary of Defense Donald Runsfeld got a lot of press with this one: ...there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns -- the ones we don't know...
by postingname
Tue Oct 07, 2014 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation market timing strategy inspired by John B
Replies: 43
Views: 5309

Re: Assett allocation market timing strategy inspired by Joh

Those who use such methods don't like to call this Market Timing, rather Dynamic Asset Allocation! Time does not enter the equation but valuations do. In one fell swoop, you just eliminated the cocept of Market Ttiming. Off the planet! Seriously, I don't think I've ever heard of a "market timing" s...
by postingname
Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you a "maximizer" or a "satisficer"?
Replies: 52
Views: 4921

Re: Are you a "maximizer" or a "satisficer"?

I am more closely aligned with being a "maximizer" (as I suspect most Bogelheads are) Jack Bogle wrote a book Enough . "Enough" is the antithesis of "maximizing." The essence of the Bogleheads-style investing is being satisfied with the market returns (minus miniscule expenses) instead of trying to...
by postingname
Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you a "maximizer" or a "satisficer"?
Replies: 52
Views: 4921

Re: Are you a "maximizer" or a "satisficer"?

For me, any categorization is irritating. It's bad enough that marketing types are trying to pigeonhole us; it's worse when we voluntarily walk into the trap of being stereotyped. As soon as someone calls himself a baby-boomer, a home-owner, a satisficer, or a Boglehead, he reduces the complexity o...
by postingname
Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you a "maximizer" or a "satisficer"?
Replies: 52
Views: 4921

Re: Are you a "maximizer" or a "satisficer"?

bpp wrote:I find the term "satisficer" remarkably irritating.

Is there no way to express the same concept using real, adult-sounding words?
You mean you don't want to "grow" your vocabulary?

(I envision flashcards on a potted plant. :D )
by postingname
Tue Oct 07, 2014 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?
Replies: 34
Views: 6598

Re: tired of zero hedge, got an alt news site?

I seek out people who are experts in a particular area and read their blogs, forum posts, and tweets if they have them. It takes a lot of time to find these people, but in the end it is worth it and you can devote 80-100% of your reading to their posts (and following their links) and get quality inf...
by postingname
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Back to the OP's question...one thought that comes to mind is what would be the effect on a Boglehead portfolio if the US Dollar was no longer the world's reserve currency? Ideas I've seen over the years is that either a replacement currency could take over, like maybe the Chinese yuan, or there cou...
by postingname
Mon Oct 06, 2014 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

1. Buy low, sell high Once one learns how to APPLY those two slogans, there's really little need for anything else.... Sure it takes some time to figure out what is "high" and what is "low" LOL.. Yeah, that's pretty easy all right... So are prices high right now or low? Just takes a little time to ...
by postingname
Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Nah, that's not true. I confess what I was really annoyed about was that Bogleheads don't use "my" slogans, which I think are better. I prefer these: 1. Buy low, sell high 2. Buy when there is blood in the streets,... (okay, not mine, but you get the point) Once one learns how to APPLY those two sl...
by postingname
Sun Oct 05, 2014 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Sure it takes some time to figure out what is "high" and what is "low" and what is "fear" and what is "greed", and it needs to be put into an integrated plan that accounts for risk tolerance, etc., but it's a very profitable line of pursuit. Fear and greed don't go out of style. Ok, please give us ...
by postingname
Sun Oct 05, 2014 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

Alex, I guess I just get tired of the one-liner posts that say "Stay the course" or "Tune out the news". Those kind of posts tend to overshadow the more thoughtful posts that do point to more variety in Boglehead investing. So I guess I was just railing against the stereotype, not the more thoughtf...
by postingname
Sun Oct 05, 2014 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 78
Views: 6212

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

An excellent discussion, but I'm now hung-up on OBE, as written by postingname. Is it... OBE Overcome By Events OBE Overtaken By Events OBE Office/Officer of the Order of the British Empire OBE Order of the British Empire OBE Out of Body Experience OBE Outcome-Based Education OBE Online Booking Eng...
by postingname
Sun Oct 05, 2014 7:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you deviate from the BH philosophy?
Replies: 64
Views: 6095

Re: Do you deviate from the BH philosophy?

I think Bogle is a cool guy, though I can't claim to be a Boglehead investor. Just for kicks though, I'll participate in the survey and see where I land. 1 Develop a workable plan (Score 1 point) 2 Invest early and often (Score 1 point) 3 Never bear too much or too little risk (Score 1 point) 4 Dive...
by postingname
Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 78
Views: 6212

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

It is psychology, or it's really emotions and there's nothing like a little infatuation to show the difference between emotions and cognitive biases. Many people confuse emotions and biases, think they're pretty much the same. Not at all, . From what I gather, the Boglehead approch includes one of ...
by postingname
Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 78
Views: 6212

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

Finally, what did you mean by "Once you name it, you don't need outside help." What is "outside help"? I think she was referring to my suggestion to have a "Help Me With My Anchoring" thread. Her response, as I understand it, is that once you identify anchoring and can name it, the problem is solve...
by postingname
Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 78
Views: 6212

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

One can't diagnose one's own cognitive biases at the time when these biases are active and potentially damaging. One can't say "I am in the middle of anchoring thinking, please help me get off!" Once you name it, you don't need outside help. Well, I'm not sure that's true. I think one can have a co...
by postingname
Wed Sep 17, 2014 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?
Replies: 38
Views: 4464

Re: Left tail portfolio - 70% bonds. Good idea?

This is a excerpt from one of nisiprius's posts that made an impression on me: In 1994 there was event which the financial press described as the "bond massacre of 1994" following a "bond bubble" in 1993. This chart plots the growth of an investment in VBMFX during those events, along with the grow...
by postingname
Wed Sep 17, 2014 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 78
Views: 6212

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

So I tend to think the emphasis on Kahneman/Ariely may be interesting from an academic standpoint, but without any specific examples in the investing domain, it hard to believe it's the end-all be-all for improving one's investing behavior. There are examples everywhere--you just have not been awar...
by postingname
Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money
Replies: 78
Views: 6212

Re: Financial Psychology - Mind Over Money

The beauty of buy-and-hold investing is that it avoids behavioral mistakes by avoiding behavior instead of avoiding mistakes. The less you look at your investments and the fewer choices you have to make, the fewer opportunities there are for getting things wrong. So pick a simple plan and stay the ...
by postingname
Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

I will agree that the bogleheads approach eschews individual stock picking, day trading, and paying someone else a lot of money to manage your assets. But that still leaves the thoughtful investor a large variety of ways to deviate from a total market portfolio and still call him or herself a bogle...
by postingname
Wed Sep 17, 2014 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?
Replies: 212
Views: 24474

Re: What evidence would prove the Boglehead mentality wrong?

I'm 26 and hopefully should have a long time of investing ahead of me. The benefits of holding a mix of stocks and bonds index funds in a passive investing style is relatively new relative to the length of developed human history. While unlikely, it's entirely possible that at some point during my ...