Search found 1476 matches

by Horton
Tue Mar 26, 2024 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
Replies: 65
Views: 8589

Re: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources

Inspire launched a new fund today. I’ll be paying close attention and will probably convert all my BIBL holdings to this new fund, PTL, at some point in the future.
Inspire Investing has just launched a 0.09% expense ratio U.S. large cap fund, the Inspire 500 ETF [ticker: PTL], ushering in a new era of low cost investing for faith-based investors. PTL is currently the lowest cost faith-based ETF available in the U.S.
https://www.inspireetf.com/news/inspire ... le-content
by Horton
Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
Replies: 65
Views: 8589

Re: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources

I invest as much of my family's equity allocation as I can (outside of our employer-sponsored retirement plans, which don't offer it) in Eventide's main fund (Gilead). Eventide has a thoughtful screening and selection process that is based on a Christian ethical framework. It is not a Boglehead-style fund, in that it is actively managed and it is expensive compared to index funds (1.18% ER for ETILX, the >$100K version). I do not invest in it because I think it will "beat the market." Indeed, because of its expense ratio and its sector tilts (which are more or less the inevitable result of screening) for planning purposes I assume it will trail its benchmark indexes over time. (I think its managers believe that well-run companies...
by Horton
Fri Feb 09, 2024 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
Replies: 65
Views: 8589

Re: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources

I did a Match Factor Exposure of BIBL to VTI, VTV, VIOV, MTUM https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/match-factor-exposure?s=y&sl=6z3BHFutJ9Wj4h4izTvW09 I'll let each of you play around with your favorite funds to compare factor exposure and returns. Interesting from a factor perspective it adds a momentum tilt. I give OP kudos for their tilting approach and thorough evaluation of their "reasons". I try not to impose binary decisions anywhere in my life. Equivocating sounds bad so I think of it as having a cloudy crystal ball and making sure my family is taken care of. Thanks for sharing, this is interesting. I played around with using VO, VTO, and VOO as well. Overall, BIBL has underperformed the “clones” and that brings me to ...
by Horton
Thu Feb 08, 2024 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
Replies: 65
Views: 8589

Re: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources

From the OP: <snip> When incorporating faith into the investment process there are several approaches that may be considered. There are exclusionary funds that eliminate companies based on specified criteria. There are also funds that select companies based on positive criteria. Investors may also seek to invest in (or avoid) certain size companies, sectors, regions, geographies, themes, or other criteria to select funds that meet their needs and preferences. <snip> Here is a list of some of the ETF and mutual fund “families” I know of that provide some form of faith-based investment options: - Inspire <snip> - Guidestone <snip> Before embarking on the use of faith-based investment options, here are some things to consider: - Many of these ...
by Horton
Thu Feb 08, 2024 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
Replies: 65
Views: 8589

Re: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources

JoeNJ28 wrote: Thu Feb 08, 2024 4:54 pm So it’s a ESG fund with higher fees?
The term ESG has made several appearances in this thread. From my personal perspective, ESG and faith-based investing are not the same thing. Some may consider them similar though, depending on their personal views.
by Horton
Thu Feb 08, 2024 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
Replies: 65
Views: 8589

Re: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources

I think to be consistent with the objectives of the forum, the thread should if possible highlight the faith based options that are most consistent with the BH philosophy. Which ones are most diversified and have lowest cost? How is their tax efficiency? Guidestone Equity Index looks about the best to me. Compared to Inspire 100, the fees are about the same, but has higher CAGR with lower volatility and better correlation with VTSAX. Inspire 100 has a -29% max drawdown whereas VTSAX and BIBL went down on -25%. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=2GQP93fFljPOk30J6UoqM3 The Guidestone fees are similar to the Inspire 100 ETF, but the Guidestone fund is basically an S&P 500 fund with some exclusions. There’s v...
by Horton
Thu Feb 08, 2024 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
Replies: 65
Views: 8589

Re: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources

I think to be consistent with the objectives of the forum, the thread should if possible highlight the faith based options that are most consistent with the BH philosophy. Which ones are most diversified and have lowest cost? How is their tax efficiency? Guidestone Equity Index looks about the best to me. Compared to Inspire 100, the fees are about the same, but has higher CAGR with lower volatility and better correlation with VTSAX. Inspire 100 has a -29% max drawdown whereas VTSAX and BIBL went down on -25%. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=2GQP93fFljPOk30J6UoqM3 The Guidestone fees are similar to the Inspire 100 ETF, but the Guidestone fund is basically an S&P 500 fund with some exclusions. There’s v...
by Horton
Thu Feb 08, 2024 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worldwide version of NTSX on the way [RSSB new global return stacking ETF]
Replies: 60
Views: 10395

Re: Worldwide version of NTSX on the way [RSSB new global return stacking ETF]

I see the reference upthread about using VT + TYA to mimic the results of NTSX, et al discussed in this thread. Out of curiosity, I compared TYA and TLT - see link below. Interestingly enough, TYA has underperformed TLT pretty significantly over the life of the fund. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=4Uj8sZghsI4CLn6aEqV7gH Short-term rates went up faster, a one-time effect. Few years of backtest are almost always 100% meaningless. I’m not sure that I would call it a one-time effect. After all, it could happen again, right? BTW, TYA appears to hold 10 year futures. So, it seems like we should be comparing intermediate and long rates, correct? If anything, the collateral in T-bills should be helping. I’m not s...
by Horton
Thu Feb 08, 2024 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Decaf K Cups
Replies: 31
Views: 2590

Re: Decaf K Cups

Mystic Monk Vespers Decaf: https://www.mysticmonkcoffee.com/produc ... -pack-10ct

BTW, you might find the following thread interesting. I recently kicked the Keurig in favor of an Aeropress and a Hario Switch.

viewtopic.php?t=419809
by Horton
Thu Feb 08, 2024 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where else can I find financial news aggregation? // Riholtz.com no longer does it consistently?
Replies: 9
Views: 1338

Re: Where else can I find financial news aggregation? // Riholtz.com no longer does it consistently?

I look at Abnormal Returns occasionally. Though, in recent years, it seems to pick up every blog written by any of the Ritholz Wealth Management folks. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but it does seem less diverse than it used to be.

Other that, I'll look at WSJ, Marketplace (NPR podcast), CNBC, and other blogs that I'm subscribed to.
by Horton
Thu Feb 08, 2024 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
Replies: 65
Views: 8589

Re: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources

Walkure wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2024 10:01 am
Horton wrote: Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:02 pm
- Global X (CATH)
<snip>

Holdings look like a fairly vanilla ESG fund under the hood.
That is my conclusion as well.
by Horton
Thu Feb 08, 2024 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
Replies: 65
Views: 8589

Re: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources

So I guess my question, as a fellow religious person, is this seems like an all or nothing affair. "tilting" Christian kind of seems non committal if you will. Certainly not a "you are doing it wrong" type of accusation but just based on my experience. I get your point. I'm "tilting" rather than going all in for a variety of (personal) reasons. I have sizeable VTI and VXUS positions that have built up over the years, some within taxable accounts, so I'm not yet inclined to unwind those. Of the faith-based investment options listed above, I've only found one that I feel is appropriate for my situation and I'm not willing to go 100% into it for a host of reasons, some of which are probably obvious. I subscribe t...
by Horton
Thu Feb 08, 2024 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worldwide version of NTSX on the way [RSSB new global return stacking ETF]
Replies: 60
Views: 10395

Re: Worldwide version of NTSX on the way [RSSB new global return stacking ETF]

I see the reference upthread about using VT + TYA to mimic the results of NTSX, et al discussed in this thread. Out of curiosity, I compared TYA and TLT - see link below. Interestingly enough, TYA has underperformed TLT pretty significantly over the life of the fund. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&sl=4Uj8sZghsI4CLn6aEqV7gH Short-term rates went up faster, a one-time effect. Few years of backtest are almost always 100% meaningless. I’m not sure that I would call it a one-time effect. After all, it could happen again, right? BTW, TYA appears to hold 10 year futures. So, it seems like we should be comparing intermediate and long rates, correct? If anything, the collateral in T-bills should be helping. I’m not s...
by Horton
Thu Feb 08, 2024 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meta becomes a dividend payer.
Replies: 43
Views: 5101

Re: Meta becomes a dividend payer.

It’s a tiny dividend. IIRC the buyback announced is roughly 25x larger.
by Horton
Thu Feb 08, 2024 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worldwide version of NTSX on the way [RSSB new global return stacking ETF]
Replies: 60
Views: 10395

Re: Worldwide version of NTSX on the way [RSSB new global return stacking ETF]

I see the reference upthread about using VT + TYA to mimic the results of NTSX, et al discussed in this thread. Out of curiosity, I compared TYA and TLT - see link below. Interestingly enough, TYA has underperformed TLT pretty significantly over the life of the fund.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... Ln6aEqV7gH
by Horton
Mon Feb 05, 2024 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources
Replies: 65
Views: 8589

Faith-based Investment Options, Tools, and Resources

The purpose of this post is to catalog faith-based investment options, tools, resources, and other considerations. Please respect the Forum Rules when responding. === To begin, it’s worth noting that nothing in life, especially investing in public markets, is perfect. There are legitimate reasons that some, including myself, may wish to incorporate their faith into their investing, but there are practical and other considerations to keep in mind. I hope to present a fair picture of all sides. When incorporating faith into the investment process there are several approaches that may be considered. There are exclusionary funds that eliminate companies based on specified criteria. There are also funds that select companies based on positive c...
by Horton
Sat Feb 03, 2024 9:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash Balance Plan
Replies: 10
Views: 1197

Re: Cash Balance Plan

Can you post details about the plan? Does the balance grow based on the actual returns of the plan, 10 year Treasury, fixed rate, etc.?

You can look up the plan’s Form 5500 on the DOL website and potentially find information on the plan’s assets and investment strategy.

https://www.efast.dol.gov/5500search/
by Horton
Sat Feb 03, 2024 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best ETF/stocks strategy
Replies: 11
Views: 1574

Re: Best ETF/stocks strategy

You may want to use a Fidelity Index Target Date Fund instead.
by Horton
Sat Feb 03, 2024 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Loving the unloved mids...
Replies: 39
Views: 7917

Re: Loving the unloved mids...

dcabler wrote: Sat Feb 03, 2024 3:52 pm Been primarily in midcaps for a couple of decades now (US and Int'l). Yep, the large caps have been the overall winner for a little while now. But you know what? I met my investment goals and retired. There will always be an investment that outpaced something we chose - no way to know what that will be in advance with any certainty. Invest often, stick to a plan, meet your goals....

Cheers.
Well said! :beer
by Horton
Sat Feb 03, 2024 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Loving the unloved mids...
Replies: 39
Views: 7917

Re: Loving the unloved mids...

The past is the past. If anything, future returns for mid caps may be better than large caps. No one knows for sure though.
by Horton
Fri Feb 02, 2024 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best & Worst "Mid-Life Crisis" expenditures
Replies: 129
Views: 24663

Re: Best & Worst "Mid-Life Crisis" expenditures

Explore new ways to make coffee: viewtopic.php?t=419809
by Horton
Fri Feb 02, 2024 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset allocation strategy
Replies: 37
Views: 3807

Re: Asset allocation strategy

The decision is highly personal. I use, and recommend others use, the TPAW Planner: viewtopic.php?t=331368
by Horton
Fri Feb 02, 2024 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623596

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

Here’s a riddle!

Let’s assume for this inquiry that we all agree that a cash flow 10 years hence should be funded with TIPS and a cash flow 20 years hence should be funded with VT.

For the cash flow in 20 years, what do I do in 10 years when that cash flow is now 10 years away?
by Horton
Fri Feb 02, 2024 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623596

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

CraigTester wrote: Wed Jan 31, 2024 9:16 pm And this brings us to what I think the question of the thread is asking--

My answer is: once you exceed 20 years duration, TIPS are an inferior investment to VT, - Full stop....

And the only exception is for someone who just wants to pay a really big price for avoiding interim volatility.....
Edit: see riddle below.
by Horton
Sat Jan 27, 2024 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: should we be saving in 529 or in taxable or should we pay off mortgage faster?
Replies: 43
Views: 3896

Re: should we be saving in 529 or in taxable or should we pay off mortgage faster?

Very surprised that a seemingly simple math question has no definitive answer. There isn’t one definitive answer. You’re treating this like it’s deterministic when it’s stochastic. FWIW, I have a 4 kids. I have some money in 529s for each, but I don’t intend to fund these accounts anywhere close to what it might cost each of them. I have money in taxable accounts. I may still be working when they go to college. For a couple of them, I could use retirement accounts to pay college. Right now, I don’t know where the will go, how much it will cost, or how I will pay it…but I’m pretty sure that it will all work out when the time comes. To answer your question - do it all. Save some in a 529. Pay off your mortgage a little faster. Save some in b...
by Horton
Fri Jan 26, 2024 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623596

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

Kevin - what’s the difference, in bps, that you typically see in the YTM between large and small (1 or 5) quantities at Schwab, Fidelity, and Vanguard on the 2040s? I’m seeing maybe 1-1.5 bps at Fidelity. Above, I think you said there was no difference at Schwab out to the third decimal place - does that mean no difference at the bp level?
by Horton
Wed Jan 24, 2024 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623596

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

It might be an interesting hypothesis if only the real yield on the 2034 increased, but the entire curve changed. “These aren’t the droids you’re looking for.” :beer
by Horton
Wed Jan 24, 2024 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623596

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

I would be curious to see if there is data somewhere to test this theory -- but not curious enough to do it myself. The data has already been shared. Kevin did a post last week where he provided quotes on the secondary market as of the auction close that were very close to the final result. Since then, real interest rates have increased . To clarify, I meant the reasoning for the differences, not the results themselves. I don’t understand what you’re asking, so can you clarify again (in case others also don’t understand)? I thought you were asking why the newly issued 2034 TIPS is trading at a higher real yield on the secondary market now than it got at auction? If that’s your question, then I answered it - because real yields went up, not...
by Horton
Wed Jan 24, 2024 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623596

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

GAAP wrote: Wed Jan 24, 2024 3:06 pm I would be curious to see if there is data somewhere to test this theory -- but not curious enough to do it myself.
The data has already been shared. Kevin did a post last week where he provided quotes on the secondary market as of the auction close that were very close to the final result. Since then, real interest rates have increased.
by Horton
Tue Jan 23, 2024 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: More Evidence Against Factor Investing
Replies: 650
Views: 46458

Re: More Evidence Against Factor Investing

All Avantis does is attempt to determine which companies have the most risk and builds portfolios around that concept in an attempted to capture a higher return that is embedded in the current valuation. Listen to my podcast: https://bogleheads.podbean.com/e/episode-043-eduardo-repetto-on-factor-investing-host-rick-ferri/ Hi Rick - I’m not sure if this is how Avantis would describe their process - specifically the statement about risk. I’ll use Eduardo Repetto’s words from this podcast : Eduardo, most investors are familiar with a market cap-weighted passive strategy, like just buying index funds. How do you articulate the difference that Avantis products represent? Look, that's a fair question, because we’re having here, in our market-cap...
by Horton
Mon Jan 22, 2024 9:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623596

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

watchnerd wrote: Mon Jan 22, 2024 9:16 pm
Horton wrote: Mon Jan 22, 2024 9:13 pm
My take: it’s a glorious time to invest in TIPS! :beer
I'm optimistic that this isn't just a short window, but that positive yields are a new norm.

Maybe we'll dip down to 1% real, but I don't think we'll see negative real yields again for quite some time.
I’d love real yields to stay at 2% (or go higher)! :beer
by Horton
Mon Jan 22, 2024 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623596

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

protagonist wrote: Mon Jan 22, 2024 10:43 am A few observations (from a non-expert using what common sense he possesses):

<snip>
Good observations!

My take: it’s a glorious time to invest in TIPS! :beer

Personally, I’m purchasing TIPS that match my expected liabilities. I’m still in the accumulation phase, so I have short-term TIPS as reserves and long-term TIPS as a SS bridge and, soon, I’ll begin building a ladder that extends beyond SS (age 70).
by Horton
Sun Jan 21, 2024 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623596

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

As we get ready for the coming week, I’ll bring us back to the OP. Per the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2023, the real return on bonds for period 1900-2022 was 1.7%. Importantly, that 1.7% came with a lot of variance over time. We have the opportunity to get long TIPS at a ~2% real yield, and without the variance (if you hold to maturity).

Over the next month, I plan to buy with new contributions and do some periodic rebalancing.

Image
by Horton
Sat Jan 20, 2024 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risk Management and Coping Techniques
Replies: 16
Views: 2059

Re: Risk Management and Coping Techniques

In my experience, people’s risk aversion tends to apply across most aspects of their life, unless they are unaware of the risk that exists.
by Horton
Sat Jan 20, 2024 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623596

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

Regarding the next 30 year TIP auction, we participated in last year's auction (912810TP3 02/15/2053) and purchased an amount equivalent to 5 years of liabilities (covers ages 80-84). We were/are happy with the results and did the 5 year lump because that was the longest maturing TIP and the yield was acceptable. Without using new funds, is there ANY advantage in selling one of the rungs of that purchase and using it to participate in the upcoming 30 year TIP auction coming up on 2/15/24? My guess is, no?? I probably wouldn’t do anything now. You’d give up a bit of yield when you sell the 2053 due to bid/ask spreads. Plus, you would need to time your sell perfect - to the extent it’s even possible - to avoid price differences (beyond those...
by Horton
Thu Jan 18, 2024 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…
Replies: 2953
Views: 623596

Re: Now that long TIPS yields are 60 bp off their highs I will…

Now let’s get ready for the 30 year auction next month! :P
by Horton
Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Any pension actuaries here?
Replies: 11
Views: 1352

Re: Any pension actuaries here?

This assumes deferring the pension from age 66 to 69? Are benefits still being earned or is the increase just for interest/mortality?
by Horton
Tue Jan 16, 2024 7:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: AA - Bonds - Capitalization of SS ?
Replies: 11
Views: 645

Re: AA - Bonds - Capitalization of SS ?

Use the TPAW planner: https://tpawplanner.com/
by Horton
Tue Jan 16, 2024 6:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Easy Meal?
Replies: 127
Views: 14513

Re: Favorite Easy Meal?

1. Breakfast tacos. Works well any time of day, not just breakfast. Bacon and egg are my favorite. Cook the bacon and eggs together or separately, however you prefer. I prefer making the bacon first, in strips; set aside, then scramble eggs in the bacon grease. Toss into a tortilla with avocado, cheese, and salsa. 2. Korean beef lettuce wraps with rice, avocado, and sweet potato on the side. Recipe for the beef: https://damndelicious.net/2013/07/07/korean-beef-bowl/ 3. Baked pork tenderloin with roasted veggies. You can bake everything on the same sheet pan. Recipe for the pork tenderloin: https://recipeteacher.com/best-damn-oven-roasted-pork-tenderloin/ 4. Chicken teriyaki. Put chicken thighs in ziploc bag and pour in some Kinder Teriyaki ...
by Horton
Sun Jan 14, 2024 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me find a coffee maker with these features
Replies: 44
Views: 6954

Re: Help me find a coffee maker with these features

BTW, this is a bit what it’s been like over at the Horton household the past few weeks, albeit with more kids. :)

https://youtu.be/9uvgEymGQFc?si=ADsVAAU3JgHxCXp6
by Horton
Sun Jan 14, 2024 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me find a coffee maker with these features
Replies: 44
Views: 6954

Re: Help me find a coffee maker with these features

Another update…

The Hario Switch is working really well. I’m able to do things in steps without any babysitting (the coffee), which allows me to complete my other morning tasks (for the kids). The process is pretty simple, the cleanup is easy, and the coffee is good. Thanks leland for the tip! :beer
by Horton
Sun Jan 14, 2024 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)
Replies: 690
Views: 172419

Re: Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)

That said, I've been giving some thought to the default expected returns in the planner. I think the current default "suggested" expected returns might be too conservative for the purposes of most users. I'm planning on changing the default, for the following reasons: The current default "suggested" stock return averages the lowest 4 of 9 different estimates. So it's conservative by design. A more neutral best guess estimate for US stocks would be the "regression prediction for stocks" option. I think that a neutral assumption about the expected return of stocks might serve better as a default, especially because we are being neutral about the expected return of bonds. The default "decrease risk tolerance...
by Horton
Sat Jan 13, 2024 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finding cost effective mid-tier colleges (Computer Science)
Replies: 164
Views: 27131

Re: Finding cost effective mid-tier colleges (Computer Science)

TLDR - what does any of this have to do with the OP?
by Horton
Mon Jan 08, 2024 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finding cost effective mid-tier colleges (Computer Science)
Replies: 164
Views: 27131

Re: Finding cost effective mid-tier colleges (Computer Science)

This discussion has taken an interesting turn into anecdotal evidence that people with unrelated degrees (or no degree at all) have succeeded at obtaining software engineering jobs at the top companies. I don't think anybody disputes that software engineering can be self taught. Much like investing. But the real question is what gives this young person the best chance to succeed? What school/program will best prepare them to land that valuable internship or first job out of college? And it seems to me (a parent with a kid in a good UC CS program) that a 'name' program with good connections to industry gives them the best opportunity. And being surrounded by other talented hard working kids is helpful. Sure, there are many paths to Dublin. ...
by Horton
Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: make sense to have kid #3?
Replies: 77
Views: 20791

Re: make sense to have kid #3?

We have more than 3 kids. I know that there are financial considerations involved, but, honestly, there are so many other things that are more important. Our life is pretty busy and everything revolves around the family, not necessarily the kids in particular but the family generally. My wife left her career and I’ve scaled back my own to accommodate. Raising kids is challenging and some aspects get easier the more you have while others get harder. Every family is different. We know plenty of families with 7+ kids and they love every second. We know others who have had a tough time with one or two. It sounds like the two you have are doing great, so I would expect the same with a third. No matter how difficult things may turn out, I guarant...
by Horton
Sun Jan 07, 2024 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me find a coffee maker with these features
Replies: 44
Views: 6954

Re: Help me find a coffee maker with these features

leland wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 1:40 pm
Horton wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:07 am <snip>
More to come…
Good updates. A scale in your routine will be biggest value add as you 'dial in' your morning preference (well probably a grinder, but a scale is a close #2 and a lot easier/cheaper :) ).
That will need to come later. I’m already testing my wife’s patience! :P
by Horton
Sun Jan 07, 2024 12:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Finding cost effective mid-tier colleges (Computer Science)
Replies: 164
Views: 27131

Re: Finding cost effective mid-tier colleges (Computer Science)

I rarely see Trinity mentioned but it has an excellent though small CS department. I'm biased because it's where I studied. It's one of the oldest CS departments in the country and focuses strongly on fundamentals. It also has a high drop out rate. My year had about 200 students in the intro CS courses and four years later only 12 of us graduated. I also think the combination of CS and liberal arts is very powerful. Expensive however, unless you get a ton of merit aid. Trinity U offers a ton of merit aid, which is one of the reasons I mentioned it. Trinity is a liberal arts college with an ABET-accredited engineering program. They don't have many breadth requirements, so students (even in STEM) can double major or have multiple minors if t...
by Horton
Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Book on the Life Cycle Model - "The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions"
Replies: 154
Views: 33612

Re: New Book on the Life Cycle Model - "The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions"

ttboy wrote: Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:09 am Considering the interest rates, market valuations, inflation, im trying to come up with a current asset allocation based on the book. I think it would be heavily bond weighted...
The book i think gives more credence to Vanguard's most recent annual return projections which is heavily bond weighted...Any thoughts of where we are currently and how the book would recommend allocating?
I recommend the Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW) tool:

https://tpawplanner.com/

It uses the methodology outlined in the book and was created by a fellow BH, Ben Mathew, who has been posting frequently in this thread. There’s also a separate thread on TPAW.
by Horton
Sun Jan 07, 2024 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me find a coffee maker with these features
Replies: 44
Views: 6954

Re: Help me find a coffee maker with these features

Here’s an update… 1. I put the Keurig machine away. It will probably still get some use when we have visitors. 2. I bought a water kettle, the Cuisinart model referenced within this thread. Ironically, I’ve already found a variety of uses for it beyond coffee - making hot chocolate and a small amount of pasta for the kids. 3. I’ve started using the Aeropress and water kettle to make an americano in the morning. I make a single shot of coffee when I can and then, typically 5-15 minutes later once the kids are situated, I use the water kettle to pour boiling water into the cup to the desired strength and temp. The biggest inefficiency is having to actually use the press, which leads to #4. 4. I bought a Hario Switch and will begin using it th...
by Horton
Wed Jan 03, 2024 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help me find a coffee maker with these features
Replies: 44
Views: 6954

Re: Help me find a coffee maker with these features

leland wrote: Thu Dec 28, 2023 12:47 am For some inspiration: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYAh9nfnkco
Thanks for sharing - your post is a treasure trove of information! I watched the video. One thing I learned is that you taste more once the coffee has cooled a bit and I’ve definitely noticed this with the Aeropress. It’s not as hot as I’m used to, but there’s more flavor.