Search found 115 matches

by Horton
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Anyone been to Molokai lately?
Replies: 8
Views: 1655

Re: Anyone been to Molokai lately?

Three years ago, we spent over a week in Maui and took a day trip over to Molokai. We flew on a small plane to visit Kalaupapa National Historic Park. I would highly recommend it, although you do need to plan your trip in advance . For those who are not familiar with this part of the island, it was ...
by Horton
Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Implementing Life-Cycle Financial Planning
Replies: 5
Views: 699

Re: Implementing Life-Cycle Financial Planning

Thanks for sharing. I always enjoy reading Joe Tomlinson’s work.
by Horton
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we sell our business?
Replies: 61
Views: 5449

Re: Should we sell our business?

Not sure if it is useful or not, but this article includes a chart that shows median earnings multiples paid for small businesses. At $300K earnings, a $2M sell price would generate a multiple in excess of those shown. Sounds like that may be due to growth expectations. That said, the $900K business...
by Horton
Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice
Replies: 11
Views: 1085

Re: Career Advice

Duplicate post :oops:
by Horton
Thu Jul 05, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career Advice
Replies: 11
Views: 1085

Re: Career Advice

This is a dilemma that I am sure many have faced. I'm not sure how helpful it will be, but the first thing that came to mind was the "Second Half of Your Life" section from Peter Drucker's classic HBR article Managing Oneself . https://academicaffairs.iupui.edu/AAContent/Html/Media/AAContent/03-Even...
by Horton
Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast
Replies: 46
Views: 5218

Re: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast

munemaker wrote:
Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:26 pm
Robert Merton's interview, while interesting, does not seem slanted toward a Boglehead audience.

It is more toward the average wage earner who is clueless.
The Bogleheads aren’t interested in secure retirement income? :wink:
by Horton
Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast
Replies: 46
Views: 5218

Re: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast

Agree with the prior posters. I would encourage everyone to listen to Robert Merton's ideas on retirement income. I think it's clear that he has a deep desire to help people prepare for a secure retirement. He's also trying hard to train the best and the brightest via his courses at MIT to design me...
by Horton
Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 345
Views: 34853

Re: What is/was your career and would you recommend it now?

Actuary. It has been rated in the "top 10" by many lists over the years, and the ranking is correct. Once a person finishes their actuarial examinations (usually happens before age 30), unemployment is basically zero, salaries are very good, and the stress level is relatively low. I would highly re...
by Horton
Fri Jun 29, 2018 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast
Replies: 46
Views: 5218

Robert Merton on NewRetirement Podcast

The NewRetirement podcast is relatively new, but Steve Chen has had an all-star lineup thus far - Bill Bernstein, Jonathan Clements, Allan Roth, Big ERN, Morgan Housel, and Chris Mamula Continuing the trend, Robert Merton is the guest on today's episode. I got about half way through it on my drive h...
by Horton
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity/Pension subsitutes for portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 2779

Re: Annuity/Pension subsitutes for portfolio

I would also note that if the government were to default on its obligations - or even if the possibility presented itself - good luck finding shelter among any other asset classes (i.e., diversification wouldn't exist). That would be a terrible scenario.
by Horton
Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 68
Views: 8354

Re: Retirement bonds

Compared to a TIPS ladder, I definitely agree that these bonds would provide a simpler way to purchase an inflation-adjusted stream of income. It would probably also be easier than using a TIPS fund to develop a liability matching portfolio. There are a couple challenges that would still exist thoug...
by Horton
Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity/Pension subsitutes for portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 2779

Re: Annuity/Pension subsitutes for portfolio

This article by BobK outlines a simple strategy similar to the one grok uses.

https://finpage.blog/2016/12/04/a-three ... -spending/
by Horton
Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed Income investments too conservative?
Replies: 59
Views: 4234

Re: Fixed Income investments too conservative?

I recommend the article below authored by BobK. It will explain the purpose of fixed income investments in retirement.

https://finpage.blog/2016/12/04/a-three ... -spending/
by Horton
Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Advice for Retirement by 35?
Replies: 11
Views: 1697

Re: Personal Advice for Retirement by 35?

Go check out www.earlyretirementnow.com

The best advice I can give you though is don’t retire at 35. Go find meaningful work you enjoy and make a difference in the world.
by Horton
Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Podcasts for Bogleheads?
Replies: 31
Views: 6886

Re: Podcasts for Bogleheads?

A couple I enjoy that I haven’t seen mentioned: Invest Like the Best (Patrick O’Shaughnessy is the host) The NewRetirement Podcast - Steve Chen is the host and he has had some great guests so far: Bill Bernstein, Allan Roth, and Jonathan Clements to name a few I also listen to the Meb Faber show occ...
by Horton
Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Indecision on Career Move - Fed to Industry
Replies: 21
Views: 1455

Re: Indecision on Career Move - Fed to Industry

19 years is a long time. If you are miserable in your job, I would recommend you first try to improve your current position - talk to your boss, look for other opportunities at your organization that might make your life happier, etc. There’s also no harm looking externally. You may find a great opp...
by Horton
Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private sector pensions/multiple income streams- value?
Replies: 4
Views: 467

Re: Private sector pensions/multiple income streams- value?

I would not tell a friend of mine to make this decision on a small possible different in retirement formulas. Compounded over time, there might be a material difference, but more likely is that things will change the formulas over time. Choose based on coworkers, commute, culture, opportunities to ...
by Horton
Sat Jun 09, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Branching career paths
Replies: 3
Views: 489

Re: Branching career paths

A colleague of mine is fond of saying that you need four things to be happy in your job: Enjoy the subject matter of the work itself Enjoy and respect the people you work with Make enough money to take care of yourself and your family Have the flexibility in your role to accomplish your professional...
by Horton
Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau's Retirement Dashboard and the SOA Annuity Factor Calculator
Replies: 7
Views: 1306

Re: Wade Pfau's Retirement Dashboard and the SOA Annuity Factor Calculator

I was hoping BobK aka Bobcat2 would weigh in here as this is something he is pretty passionate about. Conversion of Portfolio Size to income is more than just a multiplier. It also has to do with the asset mix. Bob would favor Target Funds such as put out by Dimensional Fund Advisors that are prett...
by Horton
Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau's Retirement Dashboard and the SOA Annuity Factor Calculator
Replies: 7
Views: 1306

Wade Pfau's Retirement Dashboard and the SOA Annuity Factor Calculator

Wade Pfau recently updated his retirement dashboard as of April 2018. I personally like the "Sustainable Spending from Dedicated Income Sources" table - shown below. http://oi66.tinypic.com/2ldzhau.jpg This leads me to another great resource that I have not seen mentioned on the forum - the Society ...
by Horton
Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Nobel Economists Put Their Money
Replies: 19
Views: 5023

Where Nobel Economists Put Their Money

I stumbled across the article below while doing a Google search for something else. The content itself is interesting, but it’s always good to have a reminder of what occurs during a crisis. The current bull market is 10 years running and no one would have seen it coming in 2008. Where Nobel Economi...
by Horton
Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 4125

Re: P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations (and more?) for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

The whole thing is in Python, including reading the data, scraping Morningstar (and Yahoo), cleaning, graphing, etc. I've used R before for some of this plotting and data analysis, but I wanted to learn more about plotting in Python. I'm using the seaborn package with matplotlib. Seaborn can set up...
by Horton
Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 4125

Re: P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations (and more?) for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

Pretty neat once you get oriented to the information presented. One thing I drew from the charts is that the new Vanguard factor ETFs have more spread than I would have otherwise expected across the size factor (small/mid/large). How about Total Stock Market as a comparison? Maybe sometime tonight....
by Horton
Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 4125

Re: P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations (and more?) for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

Pretty neat once you get oriented to the information presented.

One thing I drew from the charts is that the new Vanguard factor ETFs have more spread than I would have otherwise expected across the size factor (small/mid/large). How about Total Stock Market as a comparison?
by Horton
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Has Introduced Target Date Funds - LifeCycle Based?
Replies: 64
Views: 9684

Re: DFA Has Introduced Target Date Funds - LifeCycle Based?

BobK - Very good points. One other example - 15 to 20 years ago, pension plan sponsors and actuaries primarily used MPT to construct portfolios. Today, LDI is the norm. Accounting changes a decade ago forced companies to put the plan’s funded status on their balance sheet. That redefined risk from a...
by Horton
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Has Introduced Target Date Funds - LifeCycle Based?
Replies: 64
Views: 9684

Re: DFA Has Introduced Target Date Funds - LifeCycle Based?

Theoretically, I think the funds may be a good tool for those seeking to employ a liability driven investing (LDI) strategy. That said, I agree with Bill Bernstein’s comment that the number of people who will use this fund appropriately over the long term is close to zero. The discussion in this thr...
by Horton
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple and Safe Retirement Income Strategy that beats many others
Replies: 14
Views: 3496

Re: A Simple and Safe Retirement Income Strategy that beats many others

I personally think their approach is more sound than the typical FIRE advice of retiring once you can live off the 4% rule. The downside is that it isn’t as appealing - working longer, saving more, and taking less from your investments.
by Horton
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple and Safe Retirement Income Strategy that beats many others
Replies: 14
Views: 3496

"Optimizing Retirement Income" by Pfau, Tomlinson, Vernon

[merged DallasGuy's thread and its replies into this existing topic - moderator prudent] A few months back the Stanford Center on Longevity released a paper by Pfau, Tomlinson, and Vernon titled Optimizing Retirement Income by Integrating Retirement Plans, IRAs, and Home Equity . An excerpt from th...
by Horton
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 years expenses in FI
Replies: 49
Views: 5466

Re: 10 years expenses in FI

Wade Pfau wrote an interesting three-part series on time-segmentation strategies (a.k.a., bucket strategies, X years expenses, etc.) over at Advisor Perspectives. ( link , link , link ). Here is his conclusion from the third and last article (emphasis mine): It is difficult to argue that time segmen...
by Horton
Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 43596

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I bet a lot of retirees had most/all of their money in Wellington, so I don’t think it’s worth calling 60/40 hindsight bias. In fact, I bet Wellington did better than 60/40 TSM/TBM. Active management for the win: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000...
by Horton
Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 43596

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

60/40 is a pretty standard retirement portfolio that is used in all the studies. 30-50% of stocks in international is also pretty standard. Those were assumptions that people were making in the 90s. Hindsight bias would be saying go 30% SV, 30% REIT, and 15% gold for your equity allocation like in ...
by Horton
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 43596

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I used ERN's spreadsheet to derive the SWRs for various retirement beginning dates in 2000 for a selection of asset allocations ranging from 100% stocks to 100% bonds. The results are shown below. I was a bit surprised to see that 100% bonds yielded a SWR above 5% for all dates. Note: the results as...
by Horton
Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 3076

Re: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

I don't think you can make an asset allocation decision based on correlations alone. In the end, you need to have a good grasp of your overall goals. Next, you need to understand the returns you need to achieve those goals along with the associated risks. For instance, let's say I am in my mid-thirt...
by Horton
Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?
Replies: 187
Views: 20161

Re: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?

Suppose you have a too heavy stock allocation ... (my own situation given the last couple of years without rebalancing). I also have a mortgage at 2.625 %. I could/should rebalance by selling some stock and purchasing bonds/cds but my question is more what should I do with future/present extra inco...
by Horton
Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4746

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

In a tax advantaged account, there are no tax implications and usually no transaction costs at all when changing investments. There are no transaction costs now. But if we are backtesting 1948-1987...there would have been significant costs with each round trip trade in/out of the market. Bid/ask sp...
by Horton
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4746

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

In order to avoid some whipsaws, I would favor some pruning rules. That is, sell only if certain fundamentals are not met. Of course, not selling on a signal would mean you are more in the buy-hold camp for awhile. Some pruning rules were discussed here: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/0...
by Horton
Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial
Replies: 51
Views: 7549

Re: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-patience-diversification-crucial?nopaging=1 This is an excellent short summary of the basis for Larry’s approach to investing. Larry shows that the market, size, value factors can each underperform for long periods. He shows how volatile eac...
by Horton
Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4746

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

... * In it's most simple form, the strategy can be summarized as follows (pg. 21 of the paper): BUY RULE Buy when monthly price > 10-month SMA. SELL RULE Sell and move to cash when monthly price < 10-month SMA. In order to avoid some whipsaws, I would favor some pruning rules. That is, sell only i...
by Horton
Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4746

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

To the OP: is the CAPE ratio used to modify the trend following or just as a separate variable to consider in the decumulation phase? Since the CAPE ratio has poor 1 year predictive value, I'd imagine that it doesn't do much for the trend following algorithm employed. Because of huge changes in mar...
by Horton
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4746

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

If your so interested in "Timing The Markets" why don't you join a market timing blog & go for it with like minded people. snarlyjack - Perhaps it is worth me taking a step back to explain the purpose behind my posts and the effort associated with them. First, it is not my intent to convince you or...
by Horton
Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4746

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

Here is another installment of charts relevant to the topic at hand. Yesterday, I provided a couple time series charts that showed how the SWR varied with and without the application of trend following. The charts generally showed that trend following has historically yielded higher SWRs and helped ...
by Horton
Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4746

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:20 pm
I would be interested to see what differences would exist if the stocks were split between U.S. and international, as well as with tilts such as small and value.
This article may whet your appetite. It's by the same authors and looks at broader asset classes.
by Horton
Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4746

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

The following figure is provided in the article. It provides real Perfect Withdrawal Rates (same as SWRs) for a 20 year period with and without trend following. http://oi63.tinypic.com/2z4ipah.jpg I am interested in longer periods during the decumulation phase because retirees are living longer and ...
by Horton
Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4746

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

You can easily experiment with different buy-sell rules on Portfoliovisualizer. On paper some seem to work. Portfolio Visualizer is a great tool, but the one thing missing from their Moving Averages Model is the ability to model withdrawals. Instead, their Moving Averages Model assumes that you hav...
by Horton
Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4746

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

DallasGuy, Here is the latest research on reducing "Sequence Risk". Dr. ERN (Early Retirement Now) has a Phd. in Economics & has analyzed reducing sequence risk. This series is the ultimate guide to safe withdrawal rates part 1-22. You will want to read all the parts & studies. Enjoy... https://ear...
by Horton
Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4746

"Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

I recently read the transcript from an episode of Meb Faber's podcast where he discusses his paper written in 2007 that provides a trend following strategy using the S&P 200 day simple moving average to determine buy/sell rules (link below). The strategy originally proposed in the paper has been dis...
by Horton
Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 5
Views: 475

Re: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]

Any idea how quickly VG changes dividend/capital gain distribution elections? Is it T+1 or does it take longer? I anticipate that VTSAX will distribute dividends around 9/23. If I submit the change by 9/18, will it take effect by 9/23?
by Horton
Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 5
Views: 475

Re: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]

I have not purchased VTSAX shares within an IRA (mine/wife's) within the last 31 days. However, that reminds me that I need to turn off automatic reinvestment of the VTSAX dividends/capital gains within the IRA as well.
by Horton
Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 5
Views: 475

Re: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]

P.S. - I know that if I TLH, I will also need to (a) turn off the automatic monthly investment into VTSAX and (b) turn off automatic reinvestment of capital gains and dividends.