Search found 106 matches

by Horton
Sun Jun 10, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity/Pension subsitutes for portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 2515

Re: Annuity/Pension subsitutes for portfolio

I would also note that if the government were to default on its obligations - or even if the possibility presented itself - good luck finding shelter among any other asset classes (i.e., diversification wouldn't exist). That would be a terrible scenario.
by Horton
Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5017

Re: Retirement bonds

Compared to a TIPS ladder, I definitely agree that these bonds would provide a simpler way to purchase an inflation-adjusted stream of income. It would probably also be easier than using a TIPS fund to develop a liability matching portfolio. There are a couple challenges that would still exist thoug...
by Horton
Sun Jun 10, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Annuity/Pension subsitutes for portfolio
Replies: 31
Views: 2515

Re: Annuity/Pension subsitutes for portfolio

This article by BobK outlines a simple strategy similar to the one grok uses.

https://finpage.blog/2016/12/04/a-three ... -spending/
by Horton
Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed Income investments too conservative?
Replies: 59
Views: 3684

Re: Fixed Income investments too conservative?

I recommend the article below authored by BobK. It will explain the purpose of fixed income investments in retirement.

https://finpage.blog/2016/12/04/a-three ... -spending/
by Horton
Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Personal Advice for Retirement by 35?
Replies: 11
Views: 1604

Re: Personal Advice for Retirement by 35?

Go check out www.earlyretirementnow.com

The best advice I can give you though is don’t retire at 35. Go find meaningful work you enjoy and make a difference in the world.
by Horton
Sat Jun 09, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Podcasts for Bogleheads?
Replies: 31
Views: 6199

Re: Podcasts for Bogleheads?

A couple I enjoy that I haven’t seen mentioned: Invest Like the Best (Patrick O’Shaughnessy is the host) The NewRetirement Podcast - Steve Chen is the host and he has had some great guests so far: Bill Bernstein, Allan Roth, and Jonathan Clements to name a few I also listen to the Meb Faber show occ...
by Horton
Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Indecision on Career Move - Fed to Industry
Replies: 21
Views: 1285

Re: Indecision on Career Move - Fed to Industry

19 years is a long time. If you are miserable in your job, I would recommend you first try to improve your current position - talk to your boss, look for other opportunities at your organization that might make your life happier, etc. There’s also no harm looking externally. You may find a great opp...
by Horton
Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Private sector pensions/multiple income streams- value?
Replies: 4
Views: 420

Re: Private sector pensions/multiple income streams- value?

I would not tell a friend of mine to make this decision on a small possible different in retirement formulas. Compounded over time, there might be a material difference, but more likely is that things will change the formulas over time. Choose based on coworkers, commute, culture, opportunities to ...
by Horton
Sat Jun 09, 2018 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Branching career paths
Replies: 3
Views: 446

Re: Branching career paths

A colleague of mine is fond of saying that you need four things to be happy in your job: Enjoy the subject matter of the work itself Enjoy and respect the people you work with Make enough money to take care of yourself and your family Have the flexibility in your role to accomplish your professional...
by Horton
Sat Jun 02, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau's Retirement Dashboard and the SOA Annuity Factor Calculator
Replies: 7
Views: 1197

Re: Wade Pfau's Retirement Dashboard and the SOA Annuity Factor Calculator

I was hoping BobK aka Bobcat2 would weigh in here as this is something he is pretty passionate about. Conversion of Portfolio Size to income is more than just a multiplier. It also has to do with the asset mix. Bob would favor Target Funds such as put out by Dimensional Fund Advisors that are prett...
by Horton
Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wade Pfau's Retirement Dashboard and the SOA Annuity Factor Calculator
Replies: 7
Views: 1197

Wade Pfau's Retirement Dashboard and the SOA Annuity Factor Calculator

Wade Pfau recently updated his retirement dashboard as of April 2018. I personally like the "Sustainable Spending from Dedicated Income Sources" table - shown below. http://oi66.tinypic.com/2ldzhau.jpg This leads me to another great resource that I have not seen mentioned on the forum - the Society ...
by Horton
Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Nobel Economists Put Their Money
Replies: 19
Views: 4607

Where Nobel Economists Put Their Money

I stumbled across the article below while doing a Google search for something else. The content itself is interesting, but it’s always good to have a reminder of what occurs during a crisis. The current bull market is 10 years running and no one would have seen it coming in 2008. Where Nobel Economi...
by Horton
Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 3620

Re: P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations (and more?) for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

The whole thing is in Python, including reading the data, scraping Morningstar (and Yahoo), cleaning, graphing, etc. I've used R before for some of this plotting and data analysis, but I wanted to learn more about plotting in Python. I'm using the seaborn package with matplotlib. Seaborn can set up...
by Horton
Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 3620

Re: P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations (and more?) for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

Pretty neat once you get oriented to the information presented. One thing I drew from the charts is that the new Vanguard factor ETFs have more spread than I would have otherwise expected across the size factor (small/mid/large). How about Total Stock Market as a comparison? Maybe sometime tonight....
by Horton
Sun Mar 11, 2018 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 3620

Re: P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations (and more?) for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

Pretty neat once you get oriented to the information presented.

One thing I drew from the charts is that the new Vanguard factor ETFs have more spread than I would have otherwise expected across the size factor (small/mid/large). How about Total Stock Market as a comparison?
by Horton
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Has Introduced Target Date Funds - LifeCycle Based?
Replies: 64
Views: 9542

Re: DFA Has Introduced Target Date Funds - LifeCycle Based?

BobK - Very good points. One other example - 15 to 20 years ago, pension plan sponsors and actuaries primarily used MPT to construct portfolios. Today, LDI is the norm. Accounting changes a decade ago forced companies to put the plan’s funded status on their balance sheet. That redefined risk from a...
by Horton
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Has Introduced Target Date Funds - LifeCycle Based?
Replies: 64
Views: 9542

Re: DFA Has Introduced Target Date Funds - LifeCycle Based?

Theoretically, I think the funds may be a good tool for those seeking to employ a liability driven investing (LDI) strategy. That said, I agree with Bill Bernstein’s comment that the number of people who will use this fund appropriately over the long term is close to zero. The discussion in this thr...
by Horton
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple and Safe Retirement Income Strategy that beats many others
Replies: 14
Views: 3216

Re: A Simple and Safe Retirement Income Strategy that beats many others

I personally think their approach is more sound than the typical FIRE advice of retiring once you can live off the 4% rule. The downside is that it isn’t as appealing - working longer, saving more, and taking less from your investments.
by Horton
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple and Safe Retirement Income Strategy that beats many others
Replies: 14
Views: 3216

"Optimizing Retirement Income" by Pfau, Tomlinson, Vernon

[merged DallasGuy's thread and its replies into this existing topic - moderator prudent] A few months back the Stanford Center on Longevity released a paper by Pfau, Tomlinson, and Vernon titled Optimizing Retirement Income by Integrating Retirement Plans, IRAs, and Home Equity . An excerpt from th...
by Horton
Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Assistance with parents retirement strategy
Replies: 4
Views: 647

Assistance with parents retirement strategy

I currently help my retired parents manage their retirement portfolio and would appreciate any help with the questions below. Bottom line is that I typically take a prudent and conservative approach to asset allocation and retirement spending strategies, which is being pushed beyond its limits with ...
by Horton
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 years expenses in FI
Replies: 49
Views: 5299

Re: 10 years expenses in FI

Wade Pfau wrote an interesting three-part series on time-segmentation strategies (a.k.a., bucket strategies, X years expenses, etc.) over at Advisor Perspectives. ( link , link , link ). Here is his conclusion from the third and last article (emphasis mine): It is difficult to argue that time segmen...
by Horton
Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 41394

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I bet a lot of retirees had most/all of their money in Wellington, so I don’t think it’s worth calling 60/40 hindsight bias. In fact, I bet Wellington did better than 60/40 TSM/TBM. Active management for the win: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000...
by Horton
Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 41394

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

60/40 is a pretty standard retirement portfolio that is used in all the studies. 30-50% of stocks in international is also pretty standard. Those were assumptions that people were making in the 90s. Hindsight bias would be saying go 30% SV, 30% REIT, and 15% gold for your equity allocation like in ...
by Horton
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 363
Views: 41394

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I used ERN's spreadsheet to derive the SWRs for various retirement beginning dates in 2000 for a selection of asset allocations ranging from 100% stocks to 100% bonds. The results are shown below. I was a bit surprised to see that 100% bonds yielded a SWR above 5% for all dates. Note: the results as...
by Horton
Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 2933

Re: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

I don't think you can make an asset allocation decision based on correlations alone. In the end, you need to have a good grasp of your overall goals. Next, you need to understand the returns you need to achieve those goals along with the associated risks. For instance, let's say I am in my mid-thirt...
by Horton
Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?
Replies: 187
Views: 19113

Re: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?

Suppose you have a too heavy stock allocation ... (my own situation given the last couple of years without rebalancing). I also have a mortgage at 2.625 %. I could/should rebalance by selling some stock and purchasing bonds/cds but my question is more what should I do with future/present extra inco...
by Horton
Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4250

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

In a tax advantaged account, there are no tax implications and usually no transaction costs at all when changing investments. There are no transaction costs now. But if we are backtesting 1948-1987...there would have been significant costs with each round trip trade in/out of the market. Bid/ask sp...
by Horton
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4250

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

In order to avoid some whipsaws, I would favor some pruning rules. That is, sell only if certain fundamentals are not met. Of course, not selling on a signal would mean you are more in the buy-hold camp for awhile. Some pruning rules were discussed here: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/0...
by Horton
Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial
Replies: 51
Views: 7132

Re: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-patience-diversification-crucial?nopaging=1 This is an excellent short summary of the basis for Larry’s approach to investing. Larry shows that the market, size, value factors can each underperform for long periods. He shows how volatile eac...
by Horton
Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4250

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

... * In it's most simple form, the strategy can be summarized as follows (pg. 21 of the paper): BUY RULE Buy when monthly price > 10-month SMA. SELL RULE Sell and move to cash when monthly price < 10-month SMA. In order to avoid some whipsaws, I would favor some pruning rules. That is, sell only i...
by Horton
Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4250

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

To the OP: is the CAPE ratio used to modify the trend following or just as a separate variable to consider in the decumulation phase? Since the CAPE ratio has poor 1 year predictive value, I'd imagine that it doesn't do much for the trend following algorithm employed. Because of huge changes in mar...
by Horton
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4250

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

If your so interested in "Timing The Markets" why don't you join a market timing blog & go for it with like minded people. snarlyjack - Perhaps it is worth me taking a step back to explain the purpose behind my posts and the effort associated with them. First, it is not my intent to convince you or...
by Horton
Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4250

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

Here is another installment of charts relevant to the topic at hand. Yesterday, I provided a couple time series charts that showed how the SWR varied with and without the application of trend following. The charts generally showed that trend following has historically yielded higher SWRs and helped ...
by Horton
Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4250

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:20 pm
I would be interested to see what differences would exist if the stocks were split between U.S. and international, as well as with tilts such as small and value.
This article may whet your appetite. It's by the same authors and looks at broader asset classes.
by Horton
Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4250

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

The following figure is provided in the article. It provides real Perfect Withdrawal Rates (same as SWRs) for a 20 year period with and without trend following. http://oi63.tinypic.com/2z4ipah.jpg I am interested in longer periods during the decumulation phase because retirees are living longer and ...
by Horton
Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4250

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

You can easily experiment with different buy-sell rules on Portfoliovisualizer. On paper some seem to work. Portfolio Visualizer is a great tool, but the one thing missing from their Moving Averages Model is the ability to model withdrawals. Instead, their Moving Averages Model assumes that you hav...
by Horton
Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4250

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

DallasGuy, Here is the latest research on reducing "Sequence Risk". Dr. ERN (Early Retirement Now) has a Phd. in Economics & has analyzed reducing sequence risk. This series is the ultimate guide to safe withdrawal rates part 1-22. You will want to read all the parts & studies. Enjoy... https://ear...
by Horton
Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 4250

"Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

I recently read the transcript from an episode of Meb Faber's podcast where he discusses his paper written in 2007 that provides a trend following strategy using the S&P 200 day simple moving average to determine buy/sell rules (link below). The strategy originally proposed in the paper has been dis...
by Horton
Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 5
Views: 462

Re: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]

Any idea how quickly VG changes dividend/capital gain distribution elections? Is it T+1 or does it take longer? I anticipate that VTSAX will distribute dividends around 9/23. If I submit the change by 9/18, will it take effect by 9/23?
by Horton
Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 5
Views: 462

Re: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]

I have not purchased VTSAX shares within an IRA (mine/wife's) within the last 31 days. However, that reminds me that I need to turn off automatic reinvestment of the VTSAX dividends/capital gains within the IRA as well.
by Horton
Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 5
Views: 462

Re: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]

P.S. - I know that if I TLH, I will also need to (a) turn off the automatic monthly investment into VTSAX and (b) turn off automatic reinvestment of capital gains and dividends.
by Horton
Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 5
Views: 462

TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]

I may harvest some losses in VTSAX this coming week. Before doing so, I want to make sure that I do not run afoul of the wash sale here. Here is where I stand right now: 9/1: liquidated a position in VTSAX within my IRA 9/1: automatic monthly purchase of $500 worth of VTSAX in my taxable account If ...
by Horton
Tue Dec 23, 2014 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should my work associates be worried? [Pension plan]
Replies: 16
Views: 4062

Re: Should my work associates be worried?

Thanks everyone....I am getting a very good education reading all these responses. I've been forwarding these responses to my work associates who are affected by this recent changes. I applied for and got my first MetLife pension deposit 20 months ago and am very happy with how MetLife provides mon...
by Horton
Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?
Replies: 400
Views: 83394

Re: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?

Does anyone know if there is a minimum balance required for the sweep account?

My prior understanding (which may have been incorrect?) is that you had to maintain a $3,000 Money Market balance to have a brokerage account.
by Horton
Sat Sep 06, 2014 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MD/MBA Investing Opportunities
Replies: 23
Views: 3238

Re: MD/MBA Investing Opportunities

I would think that your background may set you up well to become a medical director for a large corporate enterprise or an insurance company. Medical directors typically focus on improving the health of a broad population rather than individual patients. In my experience, many of these individuals h...
by Horton
Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal finance podcast to replace Marketplace Money?
Replies: 19
Views: 3892

Re: Personal finance podcast to replace Marketplace Money?

I listen to Paul Merriman's podcast. It's okay, but he talks incessantly about his Ultimate Buy and Hold strategy.
by Horton
Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing AA Targets between Taxable and Tax-Advantaged
Replies: 11
Views: 1452

Re: Managing AA Targets between Taxable and Tax-Advantaged

I would ask how contingent your early retirement is on the performance of the stock market over the next few years. If you are dead set on retirement in five years then you may want a taxable liability-matching portfolio locked in now. On the other hand, if an additional five years of market exposu...
by Horton
Sat Jun 28, 2014 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing AA Targets between Taxable and Tax-Advantaged
Replies: 11
Views: 1452

Re: Managing AA Targets between Taxable and Tax-Advantaged

The reason that the split AA works is that you can reallocate. If your tax-advantaged portfolio is all stock, and you want to spend $100K while keeping your 60% stock allocation, you can sell $100K in stock in your taxable account, and move $40K from stock to bonds in your retirement account. Likew...
by Horton
Fri Jun 27, 2014 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing AA Targets between Taxable and Tax-Advantaged
Replies: 11
Views: 1452

Managing AA Targets between Taxable and Tax-Advantaged

I have traditionally looked at all accounts (taxable and tax-advantaged) on a combined basis when establishing and monitoring my preferred asset allocation. Recently, I have begun to wonder if individuals should have separate asset allocations for taxable and tax-advantaged if they (a) have signific...
by Horton
Sat Apr 26, 2014 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: enough to retire?
Replies: 33
Views: 12159

Re: enough to retire?

Hello and welcome to the forum! Timely post. Read this post by Paul Merriman on CBS Marketwatch, pay particular attention to his tables and what happens when you draw more than 4% from a portfolio in retirement, even if it is diversified or if it holds less than 30-40% in equities. http://www.marke...