Search found 91 matches

by DallasGuy
Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Has Introduced Target Date Funds - LifeCycle Based?
Replies: 64
Views: 9250

Re: DFA Has Introduced Target Date Funds - LifeCycle Based?

BobK - Very good points. One other example - 15 to 20 years ago, pension plan sponsors and actuaries primarily used MPT to construct portfolios. Today, LDI is the norm. Accounting changes a decade ago forced companies to put the plan’s funded status on their balance sheet. That redefined risk from a...
by DallasGuy
Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Has Introduced Target Date Funds - LifeCycle Based?
Replies: 64
Views: 9250

Re: DFA Has Introduced Target Date Funds - LifeCycle Based?

Theoretically, I think the funds may be a good tool for those seeking to employ a liability driven investing (LDI) strategy. That said, I agree with Bill Bernstein’s comment that the number of people who will use this fund appropriately over the long term is close to zero. The discussion in this thr...
by DallasGuy
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple and Safe Retirement Income Strategy that beats many others
Replies: 14
Views: 2757

Re: A Simple and Safe Retirement Income Strategy that beats many others

I personally think their approach is more sound than the typical FIRE advice of retiring once you can live off the 4% rule. The downside is that it isn’t as appealing - working longer, saving more, and taking less from your investments.
by DallasGuy
Mon Feb 05, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Simple and Safe Retirement Income Strategy that beats many others
Replies: 14
Views: 2757

"Optimizing Retirement Income" by Pfau, Tomlinson, Vernon

[merged DallasGuy's thread and its replies into this existing topic - moderator prudent] A few months back the Stanford Center on Longevity released a paper by Pfau, Tomlinson, and Vernon titled Optimizing Retirement Income by Integrating Retirement Plans, IRAs, and Home Equity . An excerpt from th...
by DallasGuy
Fri Jan 19, 2018 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Assistance with parents retirement strategy
Replies: 4
Views: 577

Assistance with parents retirement strategy

I currently help my retired parents manage their retirement portfolio and would appreciate any help with the questions below. Bottom line is that I typically take a prudent and conservative approach to asset allocation and retirement spending strategies, which is being pushed beyond its limits with ...
by DallasGuy
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 years expenses in FI
Replies: 49
Views: 4934

Re: 10 years expenses in FI

Wade Pfau wrote an interesting three-part series on time-segmentation strategies (a.k.a., bucket strategies, X years expenses, etc.) over at Advisor Perspectives. ( link , link , link ). Here is his conclusion from the third and last article (emphasis mine): It is difficult to argue that time segmen...
by DallasGuy
Tue Jan 09, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34948

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I bet a lot of retirees had most/all of their money in Wellington, so I don’t think it’s worth calling 60/40 hindsight bias. In fact, I bet Wellington did better than 60/40 TSM/TBM. Active management for the win: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000...
by DallasGuy
Tue Jan 09, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34948

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

60/40 is a pretty standard retirement portfolio that is used in all the studies. 30-50% of stocks in international is also pretty standard. Those were assumptions that people were making in the 90s. Hindsight bias would be saying go 30% SV, 30% REIT, and 15% gold for your equity allocation like in ...
by DallasGuy
Tue Jan 09, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?
Replies: 354
Views: 34948

Re: Year 2000 retirees using the '4% rule' - Where are they now?

I used ERN's spreadsheet to derive the SWRs for various retirement beginning dates in 2000 for a selection of asset allocations ranging from 100% stocks to 100% bonds. The results are shown below. I was a bit surprised to see that 100% bonds yielded a SWR above 5% for all dates. Note: the results as...
by DallasGuy
Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?
Replies: 33
Views: 2715

Re: Is the glidepath (target) strategy just an illusion?

I don't think you can make an asset allocation decision based on correlations alone. In the end, you need to have a good grasp of your overall goals. Next, you need to understand the returns you need to achieve those goals along with the associated risks. For instance, let's say I am in my mid-thirt...
by DallasGuy
Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?
Replies: 187
Views: 17871

Re: Why Buy Bonds If You Have A Mortgage?

Suppose you have a too heavy stock allocation ... (my own situation given the last couple of years without rebalancing). I also have a mortgage at 2.625 %. I could/should rebalance by selling some stock and purchasing bonds/cds but my question is more what should I do with future/present extra inco...
by DallasGuy
Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3656

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

In a tax advantaged account, there are no tax implications and usually no transaction costs at all when changing investments. There are no transaction costs now. But if we are backtesting 1948-1987...there would have been significant costs with each round trip trade in/out of the market. Bid/ask sp...
by DallasGuy
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3656

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

In order to avoid some whipsaws, I would favor some pruning rules. That is, sell only if certain fundamentals are not met. Of course, not selling on a signal would mean you are more in the buy-hold camp for awhile. Some pruning rules were discussed here: http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/0...
by DallasGuy
Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial
Replies: 51
Views: 6432

Re: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-patience-diversification-crucial?nopaging=1 This is an excellent short summary of the basis for Larry’s approach to investing. Larry shows that the market, size, value factors can each underperform for long periods. He shows how volatile eac...
by DallasGuy
Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3656

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

... * In it's most simple form, the strategy can be summarized as follows (pg. 21 of the paper): BUY RULE Buy when monthly price > 10-month SMA. SELL RULE Sell and move to cash when monthly price < 10-month SMA. In order to avoid some whipsaws, I would favor some pruning rules. That is, sell only i...
by DallasGuy
Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3656

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

To the OP: is the CAPE ratio used to modify the trend following or just as a separate variable to consider in the decumulation phase? Since the CAPE ratio has poor 1 year predictive value, I'd imagine that it doesn't do much for the trend following algorithm employed. Because of huge changes in mar...
by DallasGuy
Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3656

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

If your so interested in "Timing The Markets" why don't you join a market timing blog & go for it with like minded people. snarlyjack - Perhaps it is worth me taking a step back to explain the purpose behind my posts and the effort associated with them. First, it is not my intent to convince you or...
by DallasGuy
Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3656

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

Here is another installment of charts relevant to the topic at hand. Yesterday, I provided a couple time series charts that showed how the SWR varied with and without the application of trend following. The charts generally showed that trend following has historically yielded higher SWRs and helped ...
by DallasGuy
Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3656

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

willthrill81 wrote:
Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:20 pm
I would be interested to see what differences would exist if the stocks were split between U.S. and international, as well as with tilts such as small and value.
This article may whet your appetite. It's by the same authors and looks at broader asset classes.
by DallasGuy
Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3656

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

The following figure is provided in the article. It provides real Perfect Withdrawal Rates (same as SWRs) for a 20 year period with and without trend following. http://oi63.tinypic.com/2z4ipah.jpg I am interested in longer periods during the decumulation phase because retirees are living longer and ...
by DallasGuy
Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3656

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

You can easily experiment with different buy-sell rules on Portfoliovisualizer. On paper some seem to work. Portfolio Visualizer is a great tool, but the one thing missing from their Moving Averages Model is the ability to model withdrawals. Instead, their Moving Averages Model assumes that you hav...
by DallasGuy
Sun Dec 31, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3656

Re: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

DallasGuy, Here is the latest research on reducing "Sequence Risk". Dr. ERN (Early Retirement Now) has a Phd. in Economics & has analyzed reducing sequence risk. This series is the ultimate guide to safe withdrawal rates part 1-22. You will want to read all the parts & studies. Enjoy... https://ear...
by DallasGuy
Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.
Replies: 56
Views: 3656

"Reducing sequence risk using trend following and the CAPE ratio" by Clare et al.

I recently read the transcript from an episode of Meb Faber's podcast where he discusses his paper written in 2007 that provides a trend following strategy using the S&P 200 day simple moving average to determine buy/sell rules (link below). The strategy originally proposed in the paper has been dis...
by DallasGuy
Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 5
Views: 443

Re: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]

Any idea how quickly VG changes dividend/capital gain distribution elections? Is it T+1 or does it take longer? I anticipate that VTSAX will distribute dividends around 9/23. If I submit the change by 9/18, will it take effect by 9/23?
by DallasGuy
Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 5
Views: 443

Re: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]

I have not purchased VTSAX shares within an IRA (mine/wife's) within the last 31 days. However, that reminds me that I need to turn off automatic reinvestment of the VTSAX dividends/capital gains within the IRA as well.
by DallasGuy
Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 5
Views: 443

Re: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]

P.S. - I know that if I TLH, I will also need to (a) turn off the automatic monthly investment into VTSAX and (b) turn off automatic reinvestment of capital gains and dividends.
by DallasGuy
Mon Sep 07, 2015 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]
Replies: 5
Views: 443

TLH Question [Tax Loss Harvesting]

I may harvest some losses in VTSAX this coming week. Before doing so, I want to make sure that I do not run afoul of the wash sale here. Here is where I stand right now: 9/1: liquidated a position in VTSAX within my IRA 9/1: automatic monthly purchase of $500 worth of VTSAX in my taxable account If ...
by DallasGuy
Tue Dec 23, 2014 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should my work associates be worried? [Pension plan]
Replies: 16
Views: 4042

Re: Should my work associates be worried?

Thanks everyone....I am getting a very good education reading all these responses. I've been forwarding these responses to my work associates who are affected by this recent changes. I applied for and got my first MetLife pension deposit 20 months ago and am very happy with how MetLife provides mon...
by DallasGuy
Sun Oct 26, 2014 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?
Replies: 400
Views: 82384

Re: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?

Does anyone know if there is a minimum balance required for the sweep account?

My prior understanding (which may have been incorrect?) is that you had to maintain a $3,000 Money Market balance to have a brokerage account.
by DallasGuy
Sat Sep 06, 2014 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MD/MBA Investing Opportunities
Replies: 23
Views: 3208

Re: MD/MBA Investing Opportunities

I would think that your background may set you up well to become a medical director for a large corporate enterprise or an insurance company. Medical directors typically focus on improving the health of a broad population rather than individual patients. In my experience, many of these individuals h...
by DallasGuy
Fri Jul 25, 2014 5:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Personal finance podcast to replace Marketplace Money?
Replies: 19
Views: 3825

Re: Personal finance podcast to replace Marketplace Money?

I listen to Paul Merriman's podcast. It's okay, but he talks incessantly about his Ultimate Buy and Hold strategy.
by DallasGuy
Sun Jun 29, 2014 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing AA Targets between Taxable and Tax-Advantaged
Replies: 11
Views: 1417

Re: Managing AA Targets between Taxable and Tax-Advantaged

I would ask how contingent your early retirement is on the performance of the stock market over the next few years. If you are dead set on retirement in five years then you may want a taxable liability-matching portfolio locked in now. On the other hand, if an additional five years of market exposu...
by DallasGuy
Sat Jun 28, 2014 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing AA Targets between Taxable and Tax-Advantaged
Replies: 11
Views: 1417

Re: Managing AA Targets between Taxable and Tax-Advantaged

The reason that the split AA works is that you can reallocate. If your tax-advantaged portfolio is all stock, and you want to spend $100K while keeping your 60% stock allocation, you can sell $100K in stock in your taxable account, and move $40K from stock to bonds in your retirement account. Likew...
by DallasGuy
Fri Jun 27, 2014 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Managing AA Targets between Taxable and Tax-Advantaged
Replies: 11
Views: 1417

Managing AA Targets between Taxable and Tax-Advantaged

I have traditionally looked at all accounts (taxable and tax-advantaged) on a combined basis when establishing and monitoring my preferred asset allocation. Recently, I have begun to wonder if individuals should have separate asset allocations for taxable and tax-advantaged if they (a) have signific...
by DallasGuy
Sat Apr 26, 2014 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: enough to retire?
Replies: 33
Views: 12140

Re: enough to retire?

Hello and welcome to the forum! Timely post. Read this post by Paul Merriman on CBS Marketwatch, pay particular attention to his tables and what happens when you draw more than 4% from a portfolio in retirement, even if it is diversified or if it holds less than 30-40% in equities. http://www.marke...
by DallasGuy
Sat Apr 12, 2014 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Another After-Tax 401k to Roth IRA Question
Replies: 2
Views: 406

Another After-Tax 401k to Roth IRA Question

1) Can the amount of an after-tax 401k to Roth IRA rollover be withdrawn from the Roth IRA any anytime without incurring the 10% penalty? My understanding is that the answer is "yes", but just want to confirm. 2) Will there be a limit on the number of such rollovers than an individual may perform du...
by DallasGuy
Sun Jan 12, 2014 3:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Good/ enjoy math, but dislike programming: College major?
Replies: 65
Views: 8180

Re: Good/ enjoy math, but dislike programming: College major

Actuarial Science - if he can pass a couple exams while in school, finding a job should not be an issue. The exams are difficult and it takes 5-10 years to get through them all, but companies provide study time, pay for materials, and provide salary increases and/or bonuses for each exam.
by DallasGuy
Sat Jan 04, 2014 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing Method: Current Balance vs New Contributions
Replies: 2
Views: 360

Rebalancing Method: Current Balance vs New Contributions

Is there any downside to rebalancing your current balance within tax advantaged accounts (e.g., roth or rollover IRA's) rather than using new contributions to rebalance over time?
by DallasGuy
Sat Dec 28, 2013 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
Replies: 160
Views: 21976

Re: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest

LOng|ShorT Capital Partners

Long
FB
GOOG

Short
MITT
ANH
by DallasGuy
Sun Sep 22, 2013 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing - What to do about fixed income?
Replies: 18
Views: 1688

Re: Rebalancing - What to do about fixed income?

I personally would lean toward SV. What rate is your SV fund paying? What is the ratio of your SV to your bond funds, and what is the average maturity or duration of your bond funds? Kevin - SV has returned 0.71% YTD through August 2013. - Currently SV makes up only 3% of my fixed income portfolio....
by DallasGuy
Sat Sep 21, 2013 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing - What to do about fixed income?
Replies: 18
Views: 1688

Rebalancing - What to do about fixed income?

I'm in the process of rebalancing my portfolio and I'm wondering how I should rebalance fixed income. Back in late May I made a strategic decision to shorten the duration of my bond portfolio, which has been favorable thus far. At that time I also decided to allocate future contributions in my 401k ...
by DallasGuy
Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: After tax 401k to Roth strategy
Replies: 10
Views: 5088

Re: After tax 401k to Roth strategy

I came across this very detailed article which makes this seem contentious still. http://www.kitces.com/blog/archives/360-Splitting-After-Tax-401k-Distributions-For-Roth-Conversion.html As more and more baby boomers retire, an increasingly popular strategy is to split pre- and after-tax funds in a ...
by DallasGuy
Sat Sep 07, 2013 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which Pension choice should I make?
Replies: 13
Views: 1494

Re: Which Pension choice should I make?

A 4% annual withdrawal on 500k is 20k; much less than the annual annuity amount.
by DallasGuy
Tue Jun 04, 2013 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Purchase fee eliminated for Vanguard Short Term TIPS fund
Replies: 19
Views: 2296

Fee eliminated for VG short-term TIPS fund (VTAPX/VTIPX)

Not sure if this has been posted yet or not, but just in case... [Yes, it has. I merged this thread into the first one. See below. --admin LadyGeek] https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/fund-announcement-05312013-fee Vanguard is eliminating the 0.25% purchase fee for Investor, Admiral, ...
by DallasGuy
Fri Oct 19, 2012 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Office Furniture
Replies: 14
Views: 2550

Re: Home Office Furniture

Thanks everyone for the ideas. I have some Ikea furniture already and, although I thought it would be cheap and flimsy at first glance, it has held up fairly well. So, maybe I'll make a stop there and see what I can find. I might try Costco as well.
by DallasGuy
Wed Oct 17, 2012 6:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Office Furniture
Replies: 14
Views: 2550

Home Office Furniture

Does anyone have suggestions on the best places to purchase home office furniture? In about a month I am going to begin working for home, and I'll need to furnish a rather large room in my house. Probably need a desk, bookshelves, chairs, filing cabinet, etc. Wanting something that looks nice, but d...
by DallasGuy
Wed Sep 19, 2012 8:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Home Purchase - First Internet Bank?
Replies: 2
Views: 655

Home Purchase - First Internet Bank?

I've read a lot of good things about First Internet Bank on the boards, but it seems like most people have used them for refi's. Has anyone used them for a home purchase? Our Realtor is suggesting that we use a local lender that he has used numerous times in the past, but, based on the online quotes...
by DallasGuy
Sat May 19, 2012 9:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: uh oh - CPA indicted
Replies: 30
Views: 3635

Re: uh oh - CPA indicted

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Time to look for a new CPA now, otherwise you may wish you had.
by DallasGuy
Sat Apr 28, 2012 1:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quicken vs. Moneydance
Replies: 16
Views: 12449

Re: Quicken vs. Moneydance

FinanceFun wrote:http://Www.mint.com

The best.
I concur.