Search found 1320 matches

by kolea
Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust with IRA
Replies: 5
Views: 812

Re: Trust with IRA

(b) You can make the trust be the beneficiary, but if you keep the IRA in one piece, it will use the age of the oldest beneficiary for all RMDs. If the age gap between oldest and youngest beneficiary is large (especally if different generations are involved), you want to consider if the IRA should ...
by kolea
Thu Mar 14, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Trust with IRA
Replies: 5
Views: 812

Trust with IRA

We are in the final stages of creating a trust. Main purpose of the trust is to take care of some family members who are terrible with money but it is also for us in the event we become incapacitated, like Alzheimer's. The difficulty I am having with the trust is (a) how to keep it simple, (b) what ...
by kolea
Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 95
Views: 8480

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

Pretty much everyone here (myself included) is convinced about the low-cost, do-it-yourself investing philosophy. But I’m curious: at which point would you start considering to delegate the management of your portfolio to firms like Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley? $10M? $50M? Literally never? Int...
by kolea
Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New to forum, first post: Bond Fund Question
Replies: 7
Views: 815

Re: New to forum, first post: Bond Fund Question

Is this what you mean? A fund is ultimate liquidity, you can sell as many shares as you want to raise any amount of cash with a few clicks. But the fund's value may have dropped due to a rise in interest rates. I think of that as a loss of liquidity since you are forced to sell at a time when you w...
by kolea
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New to forum, first post: Bond Fund Question
Replies: 7
Views: 815

Re: New to forum, first post: Bond Fund Question

Is this what you mean? A fund is ultimate liquidity, you can sell as many shares as you want to raise any amount of cash with a few clicks. But the fund's value may have dropped due to a rise in interest rates. I think of that as a loss of liquidity since you are forced to sell at a time when you w...
by kolea
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New to forum, first post: Bond Fund Question
Replies: 7
Views: 815

Re: New to forum, first post: Bond Fund Question

My feeling is that a bond fund is preferable for those in the accumulation phase of investing but that once you start making withdrawals, liquidity is a factor to pay attention to, and you will have more control over liquidity with individual bonds, in particular a ladder. The former is all about op...
by kolea
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When/why have you needed customer service from Fido, VG, Schwab etc.?
Replies: 30
Views: 2012

Re: When/why have you needed customer service from Fido, VG, Schwab etc.?

All of our finances go through Schwab at this point. It is just easier to have our checking account with them; I am retired and all of our investments are with Schwab so transferring funds to checking is easier that way. So today I needed to do a bank transfer of funds from my Schwab account to a UK...
by kolea
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Bond Returns - From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]
Replies: 373
Views: 63853

Re: Historical Bond Returns - Shiller: From Rates to Returns [Bond Fund Simulator]

It would seem that an index fund is going to be easier to match with a model. By definition, the makeup of an actively-managed bond fund is going to change over time in an unpredictable way, so it would seem that it would be more difficult to model. A few years ago, I compared the holdings of the V...
by kolea
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 4224

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

Of course this debate is going to devolve into the "what is risk" discussion. For me, risk is more than just volatility, so using MPT techniques like efficiency frontiers and portfolio optimization based on volatility-as-risk just don't quite cut it.
by kolea
Fri Jan 11, 2019 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 4224

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

It is irrational to be intolerant of risk in one portion of one's assets while tolerating risk in another portion of one's assets. The outcome in the end depends on the result of the whole. .... I also think there is some mental accounting that can plague that approach. When LMP gets to the point o...
by kolea
Wed Jan 09, 2019 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?
Replies: 65
Views: 7641

Re: Who has the highest allocation to international stocks?

I think we should retitle this thread "Who has suffered the most with International stocks?" Full disclosure, I have ex-US to the tune of about 25% but my primary benefit so far is being able to say, yes, I am well diversified. I am not sure International exposure is worth bragging about u...
by kolea
Wed Jan 09, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past result is not an indicator for future performance
Replies: 29
Views: 2346

Re: Past result is not an indicator for future performance

My question is: Since the premise of the index fund is built on mathematical fact that over a long period of time the equity market as a whole yields the best performance, why then is the index fund immune to the same argument above? For example, people often cite that equity yields some 8% to 12% ...
by kolea
Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?
Replies: 58
Views: 7335

Re: Larry Swedroe: Does The Bucket Approach Destroy Wealth?

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2019/01/07/does-the-bucket-approach-destroy-wealth?bt_ee=FTU%2FsBNf%2FLUiHMmWwiQ4s%2FPvcHZiqdidGGmLKie5LRuYO378o7HycRIbJqe0nQFi&bt_ts=1546956764657 ...Compared to static asset allocation strategies, the bucket approach underperforms mainly because th...
by kolea
Tue Jan 08, 2019 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate at 38 years old
Replies: 95
Views: 9033

Re: Safe withdrawal rate at 38 years old

First of all, the 'safe withdrawal rate' research assumes that you'll increase your spending every year to keep pace with inflation, regardless of how your portfolio performs. That is not realistic; everyone makes changes to their withdrawals based on portfolio performance. As such, the 'failure' t...
by kolea
Tue Jan 08, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe withdrawal rate at 38 years old
Replies: 95
Views: 9033

Re: Safe withdrawal rate at 38 years old

First of all, the 'safe withdrawal rate' research assumes that you'll increase your spending every year to keep pace with inflation, regardless of how your portfolio performs. That is not realistic; everyone makes changes to their withdrawals based on portfolio performance. As such, the 'failure' t...
by kolea
Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Embarrassed to ask... dividends and Total Return
Replies: 43
Views: 6990

Re: Embarrassed to ask... dividends and Total Return

I apologize in advance for this question, but after research, still confused. I understand that in the Vanguard Total Stock Fund, for example, when dividends are reinvested , that the NAV is reduced accordingly. The NAV is reduced when the dividend is paid, not when the dividend is reinvested. When...
by kolea
Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those retired a few years
Replies: 58
Views: 5486

Re: For those retired a few years

Our annual spending since retirement is really spikey - our annual withdrawal amounts have been (about): 3%, 6%, 3%, 5%, 2%, 2%. I estimate that 2019 we will withdraw probably ~~4% So it is not that we have gone hog-wild as the average is still on target, but we certainly have had some big spending ...
by kolea
Fri Jan 04, 2019 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle says rebalancing is overhyped?!
Replies: 149
Views: 22619

Re: Jack Bogle says rebalancing is overhyped?!

Rebalancing when a riskier asset has become a much larger fraction of a portfolio than the allocation weight means rebalancing when the portfolio has become much riskier to manage risk. Neglecting to do so can be quite risky. Rebalancing is not just a downside activity. (a) Rebalancing does not hav...
by kolea
Fri Jan 04, 2019 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some critiques of passive investing/index funds?
Replies: 75
Views: 6784

Re: What are some critiques of passive investing/index funds?

The critique I hear from a good friend of mine is that she outperforms the market by picking stocks. It is hard for me to argue with her since she has indeed out-performed pretty consistently for the last 15 or so years, both annually and cumulatively. Me, I am a passive index investor and happy wi...
by kolea
Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how to monitor return/risk of a portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 959

Re: how to monitor return/risk of a portfolio

So what will you do if you discover your measured performance or risk is not what you want? Will you rejigger your portfolio with the hope of hitting those targets? That could go on a while before you find what your are seeking, if you do. Meanwhile you have subjected your portfolio to turmoil. I wo...
by kolea
Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stop looking every day
Replies: 4
Views: 889

Re: Stop looking every day

I have not looked at my portfolio in almost 2 months, since that was the last time I made a withdrawal. I will be making another one in a month or so, so will look at it then. Even when I do look, I don't track performance, since my withdrawal scheme (such as it is) does not require performance trac...
by kolea
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason for optimism?
Replies: 81
Views: 3427

Re: Any reason for optimism?

I see optimism for the short term but pessimism for the long term. I will not say more on the latter to avoid controversy. But as for 2019 and the stock market, I am cautiously optimistic.
by kolea
Mon Dec 31, 2018 7:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is the expected real return of S&P 500 for the next 30 years?
Replies: 105
Views: 12817

Re: What is the expected real return of S&P 500 for the next 30 years?

If you are pre-retirement, just keep saving and investing until you hit your magic number. Once you retire, just stick to your plan - withdrawal scheme/rate, etc, until you die. You don''t really need to know what the rate of return is to do either one of those things. Guessing what it will be is a ...
by kolea
Mon Dec 31, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What causes/creates the next bull market?
Replies: 17
Views: 1540

Re: What causes/creates the next bull market?

A butterfly flapping its wings in Tokyo is the answer to what causes the weather. The point being, the weather and the stock market are both chaotic processes and small things result in big changes. Apple release the new "i-thing" which prompts people to buy Apple stock and pretty soon the...
by kolea
Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Funds Still Relevant in a Simple Portfolio?
Replies: 74
Views: 6413

Re: International Funds Still Relevant in a Simple Portfolio?

What are you all doing with your International allocation? Staying the course or making any revisions in your master plan? International was never part of my master plan, but I altered my plan based on arguments on this forum and now have a US/ex-US ratio of about 75/25. However I am starting to re...
by kolea
Sun Dec 30, 2018 10:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 7% guaranteed return fund in 403b
Replies: 23
Views: 3299

Re: 7% guaranteed return fund 403b?

The 7% is excellent because of the zero risk, but COLA is only adjusted to the first $18,000 and that starts at age 65+. Not good for early retirees. I am not getting this - COLA is typically an adjustment applied to the dollar amount of a distribution. Are you saying this fund becomes an annuity w...
by kolea
Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HCOL Real Estate as Retirement? Bay Area
Replies: 44
Views: 2968

Re: HCOL Real Estate as Retirement? Bay Area

I would be cautious about putting so many eggs in one basket, especially in an area known for earthquakes and is experiencing one of the biggest housing bubbles in the country. The returns don't justify the risks, IMO. Besides, $1M in the bay area only gets you a fixer-upper these days.
by kolea
Sat Dec 29, 2018 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone do global capitalization weight portfolio....of bonds?
Replies: 32
Views: 2251

Re: Anyone do global capitalization weight portfolio....of bonds?

So you go for short term bonds, CDs, or maybe money market funds if they provided a return greater than inflation. Those are perfectly safe strategies. Something like Total Bond Market would likely not fit your parameters for "safety", obviously, nor would anything with medium or long dur...
by kolea
Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone do global capitalization weight portfolio....of bonds?
Replies: 32
Views: 2251

Re: Anyone do global capitalization weight portfolio....of bonds?

Nah, doesn't interest me. I am one of those "bonds are for safety" people, and to me US Treasuries are the very definition of safety. Besides, I am big on TIPS and although I am uncertain if there are inflation protected securities offered in other currencies, it would not make any sense ...
by kolea
Sat Dec 29, 2018 11:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone do global capitalization weight portfolio....of bonds?
Replies: 32
Views: 2251

Re: Anyone do global capitalization weight portfolio....of bonds?

Nah, doesn't interest me. I am one of those "bonds are for safety" people, and to me US Treasuries are the very definition of safety. Besides, I am big on TIPS and although I am uncertain if there are inflation protected securities offered in other currencies, it would not make any sense t...
by kolea
Fri Dec 28, 2018 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurate are stock return forecasts?
Replies: 23
Views: 1418

Re: How accurate are stock return forecasts?

The whole idea of whole-market passive investing is to not try to out-guess the market. Forecasting using historical data is one attempt to beat the market. There are tons of "periodic tables" of market segment performances, by year, that show how fickle that can be. The Callan table is of...
by kolea
Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Question for the bond experts
Replies: 24
Views: 1712

Re: Question for the bond experts

Say you buy EDV. $10k 2% rate when you buy it. So you have a "bond" and the duration is always 25 years What's your return if rates go to 10% and stay there for 20 years? What if rates go to 1% for 20 years? Is there a web calculator where you plug in different hold times and average rate...
by kolea
Fri Dec 28, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are some critiques of passive investing/index funds?
Replies: 75
Views: 6784

Re: What are some critiques of passive investing/index funds?

The critique I hear from a good friend of mine is that she outperforms the market by picking stocks. It is hard for me to argue with her since she has indeed out-performed pretty consistently for the last 15 or so years, both annually and cumulatively. Me, I am a passive index investor and happy wit...
by kolea
Thu Dec 27, 2018 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?
Replies: 68
Views: 7638

Re: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?

OP - what you are suggesting is a variation on market timing. The latter has been analyzed and discussed ad naseum here and other places, and it just does not work. It looks so obvious in hind sight but is anything but in real time. Burt Malkiel has a great book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street , whi...
by kolea
Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 85% of trading is on autopilot-wsj article
Replies: 14
Views: 2259

Re: 85% of trading is on autopilot-wsj article

In theory it might make stock picking, market timing, and beating the market somewhat easier to do. How's that? If stock picking were mostly humans, an algorithm for beating the market would somehow have to predict what all those irrational, fickle human investors are going to do. That of course is...
by kolea
Wed Dec 26, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there something weird in bond-land?
Replies: 14
Views: 1728

Re: Is there something weird in bond-land?

My thought is that the chart is really a view of a short term problem, in particular 2018. Short bonds might be fine but I wouldn't do it as a short term fix, I would do it if you believe it would have long term benefit to your portfolio. I personally like short bonds but not because of correlation,...
by kolea
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The effects of forum participation on plan execution
Replies: 18
Views: 2106

Re: The effects of forum participation on plan execution

This topic is timely as I was wondering recently about a similar thing I have noticed in this forum and how I use it. Almost daily there will be a post by someone about an article that recently appeared which is about some aspect of investing, perhaps something very theoretical, perhaps a new look a...
by kolea
Tue Dec 25, 2018 3:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying house - Advice requested
Replies: 39
Views: 4427

Re: Buying house - Advice requested

Advice #1 - location, location, location. That is the #1 consideration for long term satisfaction with your home. Advice #2 - buy at the top end of your financial situation. The payments will start out looking onerous, but your salary will increase over the years and inflation will do its thing, and...
by kolea
Tue Dec 25, 2018 2:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Brewing
Replies: 27
Views: 3511

Re: Home Brewing

If you can boil water, you can brew beer. Check out this link, it's an online version of an excellent book for beginners. http://www.howtobrew.com/ I think the more apt requirement for beer is: "If you can wash dishes, you can make beer". I found that clean, sterile equipment was key to n...
by kolea
Mon Dec 24, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much do you pay for cable/internet/cellphone
Replies: 95
Views: 7017

Re: How much do you pay for cable/internet/cellphone

Comcast xfinity internet $39/mo have never paid for cable tv; we don't watch much but have an antenna and Amazon Prime Xfinity wireless on a per-gig basis is generally $12-$25 per month for the two of us I'm actually paying $25 for a landline number at present, but will convert that to another opti...
by kolea
Sun Dec 23, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to invest in TIPS if you don't need the money at a specific date?
Replies: 40
Views: 2701

Re: How to invest in TIPS if you don't need the money at a specific date?

I'd like to invest a portion of my Roth IRA into TIPS in order to earn some interest while protecting against inflation risk and also want to protect against term risk to the extent possible. The perfect investment for me would be I-Bonds because they don't have any term risk, but TIPS do. I don't ...
by kolea
Sun Dec 23, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equities % v. Total Assets at Risk
Replies: 29
Views: 3102

Re: Are you a true believer?

My mother was 100% equities from 1968 (when she was widowed) until 2006 (when she died). It was a modest portfolio and she weathered some terrible markets, inflation, and helped me through college. She had a condo and SS and that was it, she never worked and lived entirely off the investments. She a...
by kolea
Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield curve inverted at short end
Replies: 168
Views: 16022

Re: TIPS yield curve inverted at short end

TIPS are an odd security due to the way that they handle inflation. The principal is not a constant as it is with nominal bonds, so calculating a normal YTM is not possible - you don't know what the exact future cash flows will be, so calculating a present value is just not possible. I am not sure w...
by kolea
Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield curve inverted at short end
Replies: 168
Views: 16022

Re: TIPS yield curve inverted at short end

I thought I should try to better explain part of what I was trying to get at in prior posts. Based on WSJ quote page, a Jan 15 nominal could've been bought on Friday for $999, on Jan 15, 2019 the purchaser would have $1000. Given that, I presume that if one put $999 into the Jan 15 TIPS, one would ...
by kolea
Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA and market [Asset Allocation - are you rebalancing?]
Replies: 39
Views: 2610

Re: AA and market

Pinot - there are several other threads going on at this time similar to your question. You might want to jump into one of those.

But to answer your question - adjusting one's AA according to market conditions seems to defeat the very purpose of having a set AA.
by kolea
Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Failure should be pro-rated by year
Replies: 17
Views: 1960

Re: Portfolio Failure should be pro-rated by year

Are there any calculators that output all the failure years individually? Then you can further decide if the type of cycle in which it occurred is more or less likely than the average cycle. Yes, mine! :) Unfortunately it is an app I wrote for myself and is sitting just on my computer. I used it to...
by kolea
Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?
Replies: 132
Views: 11316

Re: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?

Whatever the market is doing I get by osmosis since I have not really looked at it and I don't watch TV news. I read the newspaper on-line and have seen snippets that the market is having a terrible week (or month) but I don't know the details. I also don't look at my portfolio since it is not yet t...
by kolea
Fri Dec 21, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Step investing" vs. AA
Replies: 14
Views: 895

Re: "Step investing" vs. AA

It looks like a variation on bucketing, which has been discussed ad nauseam around here.
by kolea
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Artemis Attack on the Bogleheads
Replies: 80
Views: 10506

Re: Artemis Attack on the Bogleheads

So this is what he actually said: “Passive investing is just a form of momentum trading, as a passive investor you are entirely dependent on flow” Discuss. Anytime anyone says anything bad about passive index investing I respond with "Is there any data to show that another strategy will beat i...
by kolea
Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What type of bond investor are you?
Replies: 35
Views: 3271

Re: What type of bond investor are you?

I would opine that (b) is the same as (a). A security is not going to be a safe haven if it is correlated with equities. And vice-versa. Perhaps the OP meant that case (b) is those investors who seek an anti-correlated asset (which bonds are over some periods)?