Search found 61 matches

by TheLaughingCow
Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 1153
Views: 293066

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

You can't even get a decent Rolex for $5K these days. The current Rolex market is broken, with supply at Rolex's asking price unable to meet demand. Popular sport models are going for 10s of thousands more than Rolex's price on the gray market. Authorized dealers are only selling those models to pe...
by TheLaughingCow
Mon Jan 27, 2020 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best watch for around $5,000?
Replies: 1153
Views: 293066

Re: Best watch for around $5,000?

You can't even get a decent Rolex for $5K these days. The current Rolex market is broken, with supply at Rolex's asking price unable to meet demand. Popular sport models are going for 10s of thousands more than Rolex's price on the gray market. Authorized dealers are only selling those models to pe...
by TheLaughingCow
Sat Jan 25, 2020 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?
Replies: 113
Views: 5160

Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

Crashes always end. It’s never different this time I wonder if those investors in Japan 1992, Germany 1945, Argentina 2002, Iran 1979 felt the same way? I see a common sentiment these days that even if equities crash they will recover in a short period of time. This is not necessarily true. US cras...
by TheLaughingCow
Fri Jan 24, 2020 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?
Replies: 113
Views: 5160

Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

flaccidsteele wrote:
Fri Jan 24, 2020 9:01 pm

Crashes always end. It’s never different this time
I wonder if those investors in Japan 1992, Germany 1945, Argentina 2002, Iran 1979 felt the same way? I see a common sentiment these days that even if equities crash they will recover in a short period of time. This is not necessarily true.
by TheLaughingCow
Tue Jan 21, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is ibond always better than taxable?
Replies: 42
Views: 2398

Re: Is ibond always better than taxable?

I've heard that I bonds can be a major pain in the butt to deal with, especially for heirs or surviving spouses. Ask yourself it's worth the trouble when you can get similar characteristics from TIPS.
by TheLaughingCow
Tue Jan 21, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where does the money go when the S&P goes down?
Replies: 53
Views: 6382

Re: Where does the money go when the S&P goes down?

.. The actual value of shares in companies are really only certain when companies are bought by other companies for cash which is divvied up per share. This means there is no real price known for the likes of Apple and Amazon as the cash needed to buy them at the price their latest shares traded at...
by TheLaughingCow
Mon Jan 20, 2020 2:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?
Replies: 284
Views: 16903

Re: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?

It seems no one has brought up this figure yet: https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2017/5/29/saupload_inflation10-16.jpg I find this figure very relevant to this topic. As my biggest spendings go to rent and food, I feel a higher inflation rate than 2%. The increase in rent is much higher in H...
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Shouldering the burden of my in-laws’ lifestyle
Replies: 48
Views: 4373

Re: Shouldering the burden of my in-laws’ lifestyle

Having a spare 2-3k to spend in that fashion seems like you are “giving a drunk a drink” as Dave Ramsey says. I would instead give them a time limit on the help and then cut off. You should keep your financial life separate from family, especially in this scenario. -TheDDC What would be the point o...
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value stocks are making a comeback, and here’s how to get in early
Replies: 29
Views: 2981

Re: Value stocks are making a comeback, and here’s how to get in early

To buy a basket of stocks because they fit a particularly nice ratio or because other investors think that they are poor quality investments defies basic logic and seems better classified as superstition than as a safe investing strategy. What you're arguing makes intuitive sense, but as is often t...
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Irrational Fear of Injury in Small Car?
Replies: 124
Views: 6749

Re: Irrational Fear of Injury in Small Car?

This is a controversial topic, but I've recently come to the conclusion that vehicles should be taxed by the lb rather than by their price. Since heavier vehicles have many externalized costs (more carbon emissions, tear up the road more, better visibility at the expense of others, better survivabil...
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value stocks are making a comeback, and here’s how to get in early
Replies: 29
Views: 2981

Re: Value stocks are making a comeback, and here’s how to get in early

I've always thought the idea of a passive "value ETF" was idiotic. Value investing, almost by definition, is active. How so? Passive funds operate on largely the same metrics that active managers do when deciding to classify something as "value" so I'm wondering what you see as the distinction? I g...
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value stocks are making a comeback, and here’s how to get in early
Replies: 29
Views: 2981

Re: Value stocks are making a comeback, and here’s how to get in early

I've always thought the idea of a passive "value ETF" was idiotic. Value investing, almost by definition, is active.
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BH theory vs practice
Replies: 69
Views: 3222

Re: BH theory vs practice

Ok, but what is AA based on then? That's what I havee not seen (and dont doubt it exists). Its lower return so lower risk? Why would that make someone more comfortable? Maybe it's easier to think of bonds as cash. Let's say the market crashes 50% and your portfolio is $1,000,000. If you're 100% equ...
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Jan 19, 2020 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BH theory vs practice
Replies: 69
Views: 3222

Re: BH theory vs practice

If the stock market drops 70% tomorrow it means the society has collapsed and your AA won't matter at that point. It would be difficult for stocks to drop 70% on a day that the market is closed. It is would be equally difficult for stocks to drop more than 20% in a single day because all trading wo...
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Jan 19, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: stop loss order to protect again a unexpected recession
Replies: 77
Views: 4959

Re: stop loss order to protect again a unexpected recession

I have ETFs in all my retirement accounts. Is it a good idea to put in a stop loss order if my portfolio drops below a certain threshhold? I use an order which is similar in concept, but IMHO vastly superior called a "trailing stop". Not all brokerages offer this type of order, but if yours does it...
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?
Replies: 284
Views: 16903

Re: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?

Here are median home prices for some great American cities. City Median Under 100K Median Income Gary IN 83K 65% 36K South Bend IN 81K 65% Akron OH 80K 68% 36K Rochester NY 79,400 67% 33K Youngstown OH 78,900 68% Toledo OH 77,600 67.5% 36K Lansing MI 77K 72% 39K Cleveland OH 67K 76% 27K Dayton OH 6...
by TheLaughingCow
Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is Berkshire Hathaway stock NOT a better investment than the index?
Replies: 43
Views: 6027

Re: How is Berkshire Hathaway stock NOT a better investment than the index?

BRK has massive liabilities in the form of it's reinsurance obligations. In the event of a natural or man made disaster (Yellowstone volcano exploding, Nuclear war with Russia) Berkshire Hathaway will implode in the same spectacular fashion as AIG did in the GFC. Of course, an event that size will ...
by TheLaughingCow
Wed Jan 15, 2020 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is Berkshire Hathaway stock NOT a better investment than the index?
Replies: 43
Views: 6027

Re: How is Berkshire Hathaway stock NOT a better investment than the index?

BRK has massive liabilities in the form of it's reinsurance obligations. In the event of a natural or man made disaster (Yellowstone volcano exploding, Nuclear war with Russia) Berkshire Hathaway will implode in the same spectacular fashion as AIG did in the GFC. Of course, an event that size will t...
by TheLaughingCow
Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 143
Views: 7543

Re: 2020 Hedge Fund contest

Long:
BSET
MOV
TCO

Short:
AAPL
KEQU
TSLA
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Jan 12, 2020 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best retirement calculator to demonstrate fee drag and draw down?
Replies: 12
Views: 784

Re: Best retirement calculator to demonstrate fee drag and draw down?

Excel/Google sheets can definitely do the heavy lifting if you are familiar with their finance formulas.
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Jan 12, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can we retire?
Replies: 120
Views: 10546

Re: Can we retire?

Yes, you can retire.
by TheLaughingCow
Wed Jan 08, 2020 10:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: portfolio advice - 3 year escape plan from silicon valley
Replies: 41
Views: 3032

Re: portfolio advice - 3 year escape plan from silicon valley

It's amusing reading everyone say AAPL is a "great stock". I remember just over a year ago when AAPL reported lower iPhone sales than expected. Everyone was saying "$1000 for a phone is too much", "Expect AAPL to get beaten by Android", "Out of all the FAANG AAPL has the least room to grow". The sto...
by TheLaughingCow
Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 3218
Views: 305146

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Reading Bogle's second edition of Common Sense. While reading the chapter on projected returns for the next decade, it occurred to me that this market certainly seems to be defying common sense--all the more so given the soaring since the "lofty" P/E of 2017. Bogle wonders if this is the setup to a...
by TheLaughingCow
Tue Jan 07, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living in a HCOL and making a middle class salary is a struggle
Replies: 340
Views: 18112

Re: Living in a HCOL and making a middle class salary is a struggle

Only on bogleheads would the phrases "230k" and "middle class" share a sentence.
by TheLaughingCow
Tue Jan 07, 2020 4:41 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Real Estate for More Immediate Income Stream
Replies: 9
Views: 1055

Re: Buying Real Estate for More Immediate Income Stream

Being a landlord is a huge risk. I'd research it further before making a decision, and definitely not with your parents' money. We were landlords, during the housing crisis, and it was fine initially until tenants started being laid off from their once stable jobs. We had properties in established ...
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pulling the Retirement trigger in a year - Sanity Check
Replies: 11
Views: 1575

Re: Pulling the Retirement trigger in a year - Sanity Check

OP,
You could convert all your investments to cash/cash equivalents, retire today, and still have a considerable margin of safety. Any further investment you do will just be running up the score for your heirs(not that that's a bad thing). You are financially independent.
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:19 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Is 25% Gold too much?
Replies: 32
Views: 1759

Re: Is 25% Gold too much?

It tracks the price of the Gold so I wouldn't say it's a pure bond. Hybrid security. Major advantages are no capital gains tax. The interest is secondary advantage. Okay. So it's this thing that holds 25% of your portfolio? At lower than inflation returns? He says that it tracks the price of gold s...
by TheLaughingCow
Sat Jan 04, 2020 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Precious Metals - Selling Gold and Silver and Gains/Reporting
Replies: 24
Views: 1056

Re: Precious Metals - Selling Gold and Silver and Gains/Reporting

Investors should avoid taking physical possession of their gold or silver unless they believe there is an emergency. It's much safer to have your bullion stored in a secure vault. I don’t own precious metals. I’ll defer to someone who does, to respond to your question. I completely agree - my fathe...
by TheLaughingCow
Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:42 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Think and grow rich, how the intelligent poor dad will beat the Streets: A leveraged 2-fund portfolio
Replies: 20
Views: 1686

Re: Think and grow rich, how the intelligent poor dad will beat the Streets: A leveraged 2-fund portfolio

According to your post you expect to contribute 45k per year and it will take 10-15 years to reach $1,000,000. However, if you contribute the same amount to a traditional portfolio and get a measly 4% rate of return, you will still have a million dollars after 15 years! In other words, both scenario...
by TheLaughingCow
Tue Dec 31, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decade of Debt. Market fueled by debt.
Replies: 56
Views: 4646

Re: Decade of Debt. Market fueled by debt.

I don't have to read it to know that when everybody gets a lot of free money, then they do things with it. It is not just the stock market, too. If I have a $500 billion or a trillion dollars to splatter around, then everybody will be putting their hands out for some of it. I have my hand out. Do y...
by TheLaughingCow
Mon Dec 30, 2019 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decade of Debt. Market fueled by debt.
Replies: 56
Views: 4646

Re: Decade of Debt. Market fueled by debt.

Leesbro63 wrote:
Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:58 pm
So if the OP sells his investments, what does he do with the money? Cash in money markets might do worse if the debt gets inflated away. I don’t think there’s really anywhere to hide.
TIPs and precious metals. (Though PMs are looking quite dear at the moment)
by TheLaughingCow
Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decade of Debt. Market fueled by debt.
Replies: 56
Views: 4646

Re: Decade of Debt. Market fueled by debt.

Whenever one reads articles like this, you really need you take a step back and ask: vs what else could they have done? So let’s muse a bit: 1. Take earnings and simply hoarding cash ala Berkshire, Apple, Google, FB etc: Criticism now? Not efficient use of capital driving share price down i.e. have...
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Dec 29, 2019 9:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Preparing a teen for life on their own
Replies: 48
Views: 3150

Re: Preparing a teen for life on their own

I would add that a small amount of financial support can make a huge difference here. Things like receiving your old car when you upgrade, having you cosign loans, teaching her how to use credit cards responsibly, living with you while she goes to school (even paying rent). These kinds of things can...
by TheLaughingCow
Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Preparing a teen for life on their own
Replies: 48
Views: 3150

Re: Preparing a teen for life on their own

The answer to this question varies greatly based on whether on not you think she will be going to university.
by TheLaughingCow
Wed Dec 25, 2019 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: demented mother's online spending
Replies: 126
Views: 11057

Re: demented mother's online spending

With many routers you can change the speed of the internet. Change the internet speed to about 25 kbit/s and any internet usage will become a miserable experience.
by TheLaughingCow
Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Unusual need to book a smallish capital loss by year-end
Replies: 29
Views: 1956

Re: Unusual need to book a smallish capital loss by year-end

Buy $1000 of OTM short term calls in a company reporting earnings soon. Either you lose the money or you make so much that your healthcare shortfall is more than covered. Also your potential losses will be capped, unlike the plan you described above.
by TheLaughingCow
Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds getting killed today
Replies: 117
Views: 15813

Re: Long Term Bonds getting killed today

I just bought a bunch of 3 yr CDs paying an APY of 3.35%, earlier I bought quite a few 5 yr CDs paying 3.55%. Why would I want VWETX? It doesn't make any sense unless you believe we are headed for 14 years of very low rates. But even when rates were a lot lower than they are now, six years ago, I w...
by TheLaughingCow
Mon Dec 09, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How Bogleheads sell and buy jewelry?
Replies: 9
Views: 1027

Re: How Bogleheads sell and buy jewelry?

Mene sells "investment" jewelry, aka 24k gold and .999 platinum jewelry. Of course they take their cut, about 20% if I remember correctly. And 24k gold is not very durable... Generally a local jeweler will have better deals than Zales or Kay. I don't see jewelry as an investment in finances but as a...
by TheLaughingCow
Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite stock(s) and why
Replies: 131
Views: 7778

Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Apple, google and SiriusXM were initially purchased 2007, 2008, and ~2004 respectively. Have added to Apple and SiriusXM along the way. I also like BRKB and United Healthcare (UNH). In addition to the above The only other individual stock I own now is Altria (MO) and that took a hit. What is your l...
by TheLaughingCow
Mon Dec 02, 2019 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Favorite stock(s) and why
Replies: 131
Views: 7778

Re: Favorite stock(s) and why

Apple, google and SiriusXM were initially purchased 2007, 2008, and ~2004 respectively. Have added to Apple and SiriusXM along the way. I also like BRKB and United Healthcare (UNH). In addition to the above The only other individual stock I own now is Altria (MO) and that took a hit. What is your l...
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Nov 24, 2019 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much money do you need to create generational wealth?
Replies: 78
Views: 8025

Re: How much money do you need to create generational wealth?

How much money do you need to teach them how to earn a living and spend less than they earn? Earning a living is for the working-class. I want my investments to make money for the kids. :mrgreen: And, the cycle continues. Wealth do not pass 3 generations. Wealth disparity problem solved. KlangFool ...
by TheLaughingCow
Wed Nov 20, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy TSM at M1. Take 3.5% margin loan. Put loan in bank deposit earning 4%+. Free lunch?
Replies: 37
Views: 3005

Re: Buy TSM at M1. Take 3.5% margin loan. Put loan in bank deposit earning 4%+. Free lunch?

Do you have to buy the S&P with the margin loan ? It would be better if you could use that money to buy an ultrashort term bonds ETF. Before taxes: 4%-3.5%+0.25%. If they lend you 10 millions you could live off the proceeds. Until the bond etf gets frozen and the S&P margin gets called after a 50% ...
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What household income is considered "comfortable" where you live?
Replies: 10
Views: 1479

Re: What household income is considered "comfortable" where you live?

$60k if you're a saver.

$50k if you aren't.

Assuming 1-2 children.
by TheLaughingCow
Sun Nov 17, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Disney plus streaming deal
Replies: 56
Views: 6995

Re: Disney plus streaming deal

I did the $3.92/month deal because it was too good of a price to pass up. That being said, I haven't done Netflix or any other streaming service because I don't like them. I hate recurring bills and avoid them if at all possible. I prefer to grow my DVD collection (it's at about 350 movies now, so ...
by TheLaughingCow
Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Disney plus streaming deal
Replies: 56
Views: 6995

Re: Disney plus streaming deal

... Bob Iger is a genius. Thought DIS was on ropes when everyone (myself included) was cutting cord when ESPN comprised 30% of their revenue. Just wish they would pay their employees better. Genius for what? Doesn't take a genius to come up with a streaming service offering in 2019... Since Iger to...
by TheLaughingCow
Sat Nov 16, 2019 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Disney plus streaming deal
Replies: 56
Views: 6995

Re: Disney plus streaming deal

Since Iger took the reins on 30 Sept 2005, the annualized return on DIS stock has been 14.81%. $100 invested when Iger took charge would be worth $702.67 today. The annualized return on the S&P 500 has been just a hair over 9%. $100 invested in the S&P 500 on the same date would be worth $343.41
by TheLaughingCow
Wed Nov 13, 2019 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand Owl Rock's 7% return
Replies: 16
Views: 1662

Re: Help me understand Owl Rock's 7% return

They make loans to businesses too small or risky to secure a loan another way. Basically think of it as buying junk bonds from very small companies. The risk is that many of those small companies go under simultaneously (recession).
by TheLaughingCow
Wed Nov 06, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: List of companies with $1.5 billion in revenue?
Replies: 7
Views: 718

Re: List of companies with $1.5 billion in revenue?

Google “zacks stock screener”. You will be able to screen companies by revenue as well as other criteria.