Search found 683 matches

by Beliavsky
Tue Aug 21, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: getting a K-1 instead of 1099 for employment income
Replies: 3
Views: 276

Re: getting a K-1 instead of 1099 for employment income

Thanks to you both. I talked to my wife, and she said they may be asking her to join her partnership. But she is expecting to be paid at an hourly rate. We will need to look at the offer they send.
by Beliavsky
Tue Aug 21, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: getting a K-1 instead of 1099 for employment income
Replies: 3
Views: 276

getting a K-1 instead of 1099 for employment income

My wife, a physician, works at various nursing homes, who give her 1099 forms. One potential employer wants to pay her and give her a K-1 form instead. Is this disadvantageous? I don't think the K-1 should be too complicated, and we use a tax preparer anyway.
by Beliavsky
Wed May 17, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retirees afraid to spend? (Bloomberg)
Replies: 47
Views: 3896

Rich Retirees Are Hoarding Cash Out of Fear

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Rich Retirees Are Hoarding Cash Out of Fear by Ben Steverman Bloomberg May 16, 2017, 4:00 AM EDT A new study finds many U.S. retirees keep saving even after they’ve retired. The average American over the age of 60 cuts spending 2.5 percent per ...
by Beliavsky
Wed May 10, 2017 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone use Python to analyze their finances?
Replies: 40
Views: 9153

Re: Anyone use Python to analyze their finances?

I use Python a lot. I'm not sure it is really needed to "analyse" finances, though :) A pretty simple spreadsheet and occasional use of online tools like cfiresim are good enough for 99.9% of people, I reckon. That said... Pandas is a great library for data analysis: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas...
by Beliavsky
Thu May 04, 2017 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Boglehead Guide to Buying Individual Stocks
Replies: 85
Views: 8982

Re: A Boglehead Guide to Buying Individual Stocks

backpacker wrote:I'm convinced that beating the market is incredibly hard, that most investors can't do it, and that I am one of those investors.
Why not tackle an easier problem first -- beating the market on an after-tax basis (in taxable accounts) through tax loss harvesting of individual stocks?
by Beliavsky
Tue May 02, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2 Book Reviews by Larry Swedroe
Replies: 2
Views: 721

Re: 2 Book Reviews by Larry Swedroe

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-two-books-about-finance-normal-people/page/0/3 Larry recommends two very Bogleheadish books. Dave Thanks. A link to the start of the reviews is http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-two-books-about-finance-normal-people/p...
by Beliavsky
Mon May 01, 2017 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: R and Data Sets
Replies: 18
Views: 2598

Re: R and Data Sets

I would take one of the free online versions of the R courses available at Coursera or Edx. Duke and Johns Hopkins in particular have a lot of course offerings on Coursera. Then work on projects and when you get stuck ask questions at websites stackoverflow or quora. You will stumble across many ma...
by Beliavsky
Sun Apr 30, 2017 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best source for investment news?
Replies: 52
Views: 6061

Re: Best source for investment news?

I recommend the Wall Street Journal, Barron's, and the free Bloomberg site (the terminal is expensive). The great investors, such as Warren Buffett, read many corporate annual reports.
by Beliavsky
Sat Apr 29, 2017 6:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Write checks from a bond fund in a Vanguard brokerage account?
Replies: 11
Views: 1707

Write checks from a bond fund in a Vanguard brokerage account?

Is it possible to write checks from a Vanguard brokerage account, with redemptions coming from a specified Vanguard bond fund? That way you have liquidity without the cost of having money in a money market fund, which tends to underperform a bond fund over long periods of time. Since bond fund NAVs ...
by Beliavsky
Fri Apr 28, 2017 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replacing the Failure Rate in evaluation of retirement strategies
Replies: 13
Views: 1077

Replacing the Failure Rate in evaluation of retirement strategies

I agree with the author that failure rate in evaluating an investment and spending strategy should be used in conjunction with shortfall years. Running out of money at age 70 is much worse than doing so at age 90. From Failure to Success: Replacing the Failure Rate 15 Pages Posted: 19 Apr 2017 Javie...
by Beliavsky
Wed Apr 12, 2017 6:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me
Replies: 175
Views: 14870

Re: Rebalancing to control risk doesn't make sense to me

Or, I guess it does, if we define risk as volatility. But why do we need to control volatility? What's wrong with that? Really, what we're afraid of is not having money when we need it, right? The real risk we want to avoid is running out of money. So let's say I've got a 50/50 portfolio. Stocks su...
by Beliavsky
Tue Apr 11, 2017 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag
Replies: 30
Views: 4088

Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag

There are many threads here asking why anyone would invest in a hedge fund. Here is a counterpoint. Yale Endowment Blasts Low-Fee Critics, Says Gains Would Lag by Janet Lorin Bloomberg April 9, 2017, 5:21 PM EDT “What Buffett, Gladwell and other fee bashers miss is that the important metric is net r...
by Beliavsky
Wed Mar 29, 2017 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: anyone factor in future inheritance?
Replies: 78
Views: 6756

Re: anyone factor in future inheritance?

I was just curious on Bogleheads thoughts on this. What if you knew you would be getting a sizable inheritance(or any size actually)..would you factor that in your retirement savings calculations? Obviously, you wouldn't know when the inheritance would come, and maybe if at all. I just never see th...
by Beliavsky
Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value premium, retained earnings may be the most important
Replies: 19
Views: 2236

Re: The value premium, retained earnings may be the most important

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-more-complex-view-value Interesting new paper on the value premium, defining it through retained earnings Larry Thanks for the article. I have a question about one section. The accumulated dividends component of retained earnings is uninform...
by Beliavsky
Wed Mar 08, 2017 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett’s bets: how dumb are hedge fund managers?
Replies: 50
Views: 5750

Re: Buffett’s bets: how dumb are hedge fund managers?

Warren Buffett has just announced himself the winner (albeit it only nine years in) of a ten-year bet : himself (aka S&P index fund) versus the hedge fund industry. What has gone unremarked is that he should have lost. At the end of year 1 he was toast. Game over. Because 2008 was a terrible year f...
by Beliavsky
Sat Mar 04, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not hedge using futures?
Replies: 54
Views: 5556

Re: Why not hedge using futures?

If you're going to hedge for whatever reasons and don't want to trigger taxable events from sales, you get pretty tight spreads, easy execution, high liquidity from futures, and shorting an S&P 500 E-mini may be the best way to go about that. This is a clean, low cost solution. It's not that hard o...
by Beliavsky
Tue Feb 21, 2017 7:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of tax preparation
Replies: 43
Views: 4672

Re: Cost of tax preparation

For a few years I have used an accountant subsidized by my employer. Now there is no subsidy, and the accountant is quoting a cost in the range $2000-$2500, so I want to see how much others are paying for tax preparation. Our tax return is complicated because (1) My wife is a doctor who is self-emp...
by Beliavsky
Mon Feb 20, 2017 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of tax preparation
Replies: 43
Views: 4672

Re: Cost of tax preparation

Thanks to everyone who replied. H&R Block does a lot of simple tax returns. How are they for more complicated ones?
by Beliavsky
Thu Feb 09, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cost of tax preparation
Replies: 43
Views: 4672

Cost of tax preparation

For a few years I have used an accountant subsidized by my employer. Now there is no subsidy, and the accountant is quoting a cost in the range $2000-$2500, so I want to see how much others are paying for tax preparation. Our tax return is complicated because (1) My wife is a doctor who is self-empl...
by Beliavsky
Thu Feb 02, 2017 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we misusing backtesting tools like portfoliovisualizer?
Replies: 21
Views: 2553

Re: Are we misusing backtesting tools like portfoliovisualizer?

Yes, this is very important and I feel a little guilty for my frequent use of PortfolioVisualizer and Sharpe ratios. But I still think it's better than looking at returns uncorrected for risk in any way! I find it offensive that with the reams of papers being published stuffed full of equations and...
by Beliavsky
Sun Jan 29, 2017 6:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Reduce Your Cost of Trading ETFs
Replies: 12
Views: 2140

How to Reduce Your Cost of Trading ETFs

There is an e-book "How to Reduce Your Cost of Trading Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)" by ETF Pioneer Gary Gastineau. Do you agree with his guidelines? From page 27: SOME IMPORTANT CONVENTIONAL MARKET ETF TRADING “RULES” Nearly Always:  Use an Immediate or Cancel Limit Order as your first choice to b...
by Beliavsky
Wed Jan 11, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space
Replies: 59
Views: 4613

Re: institutional herding in corporate bonds and liquidity issues-beware ETFs in this space

Few thoughts First, for LT. if you own individual bonds you don't have forced selling caused by others demanding liquidity. And then you can when you have cash available be a patient buyer and earn the liquidity premium. You can invest in closed-end bond funds selling at discounts for the same reas...
by Beliavsky
Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timing small caps vs. large caps using valuation
Replies: 5
Views: 1116

Timing small caps vs. large caps using valuation

In a Jan 5 2017 report "Small/Mid-Cap Valuations: Small caps partied more than in 1999", BOAML strategists Dan Suzuki and Jimmy Bonilla write as follows: Small caps are trading back at cycle-high valuations The forward PE of the Russell 2000 rose to 19.0x in December, tying December 2013 as the high...
by Beliavsky
Fri Jan 06, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraging the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index
Replies: 4
Views: 843

Re: Leveraging the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index

My recommendation would be to just extend your duration. If you are trying to match the quality of the Barclay's Aggregate Bond Index, just invest in a fund like VBLTX/BLV and match your intend duration to that. According to Morningstar, the 15-year Sharpe ratios of VBMFX (Vanguard Total Bond Marke...
by Beliavsky
Thu Jan 05, 2017 7:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraging the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index
Replies: 4
Views: 843

Leveraging the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index

The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which is tracked by ETFs such as AGG and BND, has had a high Sharpe ratio historically, about 1 for the last 10 years. Is there a way to leverage it other than using margin, which is expensive at most brokers. It is easy to leverage Treasury notes and ...
by Beliavsky
Sun Jan 01, 2017 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing - have any REAL patterns ever been identified?
Replies: 39
Views: 4083

Re: Market Timing - have any REAL patterns ever been identified?

There have been numerous profitable anomalies, the problem is that once a few people discover them they disappear. Moving averages, for example, used to produce 20%+ annual returns for the 1970-1980 period. This was back when hedge funds would pay a room of people to calculate moving averages by ha...
by Beliavsky
Mon Dec 05, 2016 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fairy tale that are structured products, buyer beware
Replies: 4
Views: 986

Re: The fairy tale that are structured products, buyer beware

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-fairy-tale-behind-structured-products This is one case where virtually by definition you should never buy these products. We have analyzed well over 100 over the years and found none that was worth looking at. Larry Don't you recommend an al...
by Beliavsky
Mon Dec 05, 2016 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of the Cross Section of Stock Returns (paper)
Replies: 7
Views: 1241

History of the Cross Section of Stock Returns (paper)

Having done a lot of backtesting, the assertion that in-sample Sharpe ratios are biased upward by a factor of 3 is plausible to me. The History of the Cross Section of Stock Returns by Juhani T. Linnainmaa, Michael R. Roberts - #22894 (AP) February 2016 Abstract: Using accounting data spanning the 2...
by Beliavsky
Tue Nov 22, 2016 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)
Replies: 44
Views: 5808

Re: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)

Oh we have the stock funds for both U.S. and International. We have REIT Funds for both U.S. and International. Heck we have just about all funds for both. Why not bonds to round everything out? Because bonds are not stocks? Stock diversification is definitely valuable, given the erratic behavior o...
by Beliavsky
Tue Nov 22, 2016 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)
Replies: 44
Views: 5808

Re: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)

Government bonds in several countries have negative yields. (At least they did a month ago. Since then rates have risen.) I would be interested in investing in a low-cost semi-active international bond fund that invests in bond markets around the world but which avoids bonds with negative yields.
by Beliavsky
Wed Nov 16, 2016 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: financial advisor core skillset
Replies: 18
Views: 2046

Re: financial advisor core skillset

In the end, we realized that the FAs core skillset was around communication skills and networking rather than deep knowledge of markets and investing. I am in mid 40s and have developed the opposite skill set of the FAs described above though a career in finance. I have wondered how to break in to ...
by Beliavsky
Tue Oct 25, 2016 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Annuity with Death Benefit
Replies: 16
Views: 1690

Re: Variable Annuity with Death Benefit

I have a relative that is considering a Variable Annuity that works like this: Pay $10,000 for the Annuity Guarantees 5% Yearly Interest Compounded Investor chooses from various Mutual Funds to invest the funds When person listed on the Annuity Dies(not necessarily the purchaser of the annuity), th...
by Beliavsky
Mon Oct 24, 2016 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Replicate a 3X ETF using 1x ETF Price Data in Excel?
Replies: 13
Views: 1510

Re: How to Replicate a 3X ETF using 1x ETF Price Data in Excel?

I want to back test the performance of 3X ETFs over the long term, but most of them were created only a few years ago. When I tried to create synthetic 3X ETFs in Excel using Vt = Vt-1 * (1+3*daily return) of unlevered ETFs, the results differed quite significantly than the 3X ETFs. If you have a $...
by Beliavsky
Fri Oct 21, 2016 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Refining the Failure Rate with Shortfall Years and Sustained Percentage
Replies: 0
Views: 2321

Refining the Failure Rate with Shortfall Years and Sustained Percentage

In this recent working paper, Estrada makes an obvious point that is ignored in many analyses of spending plans and asset allocation in retirement -- it matters how soon a spending/investing plan fails (earlier is worse), and not just how often. Refining the Failure Rate Javier Estrada IESE Business...
by Beliavsky
Fri Oct 21, 2016 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast
Replies: 380
Views: 42383

Re: Larry Swedroe's latest market returns forecast

I don't think it is mentioned in this specific article, but when Larry previously gave the expected return for the S&P 500 of 4.1%, it was for the next decade, not for the next 30 years. That said, if a 4.1% annual S&P 500 return does happen over 10 years, that certainly would be a blow for many a ...
by Beliavsky
Thu Oct 13, 2016 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is SSRN? How to tell what's peer-reviewed and what isn't?
Replies: 12
Views: 3855

Re: What is SSRN? How to tell what's peer-reviewed and what isn't?

nisiprius wrote:So, it is a paper that the writer hopes will pass peer review later... and is being floated to get comment now?
Yes, and to stake a claim for what the author has discovered.
by Beliavsky
Thu Oct 13, 2016 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is SSRN? How to tell what's peer-reviewed and what isn't?
Replies: 12
Views: 3855

Re: What is SSRN? How to tell what's peer-reviewed and what isn't?

People frequently refer to "papers" published by the Social Science Research Network, SSRN . If someone gives me a link to an SSRN paper, how do I determine whether or not the paper has been published by a peer-reviewed journal? Is SSRN a sort of Readers' Digest that republishes academic papers? Or...
by Beliavsky
Wed Oct 12, 2016 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 164
Views: 23642

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

Hi All, Larry's new book, Your Complete Guide to Factor Based Investing is available now at Amazon. I'm eager to read it and see the ensuing discussions on this board. Looks like for now there is only a paperback edition, no Kindle version yet. Enjoy. Dave https://www.amazon.com/Your-Complete-Guide...
by Beliavsky
Mon Oct 10, 2016 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Two Key Questions for Financial Literacy
Replies: 19
Views: 3224

Re: The Two Key Questions for Financial Literacy

The fact that bond prices fall when interest rates rise is not "trivia". Investors who don't know this
will be surprised on the occasions that their bond funds have negative returns. People should
understand the risks of what they are investing in.
by Beliavsky
Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A look at some of the research on Low Vol and current valuations
Replies: 14
Views: 1146

Re: A look at some of the research on Low Vol and current valuations

http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-low-vol-strategies-more-nuanced-light?nopaging=1 Low vol strategies have become very popular given the very strong historical evidence, supported by behavioral finance theory and limits to arbitrage. This piece looks at some of the research ...
by Beliavsky
Wed Oct 05, 2016 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock Cuts Prices on ETFs
Replies: 62
Views: 7132

Re: BlackRock Cuts Prices on ETFs

Agreed, that is unrealistic. It is a good thing that I didn't say the profit motive should be kept out of money management. I said that simply looking at history it's unrealistic to expect the profit motive to act towards consumer interests in this industry. (Proof of my point: where would costs be...
by Beliavsky
Wed Oct 05, 2016 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock Cuts Prices on ETFs
Replies: 62
Views: 7132

Re: BlackRock Cuts Prices on ETFs

Cue the "Vanguard is better" posts. :happy Competition is good. Motives reveal character. Vanguard cuts fees because their duty to give us all the fairest shake possible. This maximizes the profit investors make. Other ETF sponsors cut fees because they're trying to capture market share. This maxim...
by Beliavsky
Wed Oct 05, 2016 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock Cuts Prices on ETFs
Replies: 62
Views: 7132

Re: BlackRock Cuts Prices on ETFs

Cue the "Vanguard is better" posts. :happy Competition is good. Motives reveal character. Vanguard cuts fees because their duty to give us all the fairest shake possible. This maximizes the profit investors make. Other ETF sponsors cut fees because they're trying to capture market share. This maxim...
by Beliavsky
Wed Oct 05, 2016 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjusting the x% spending rule
Replies: 27
Views: 3535

Re: Adjusting the x% spending rule

It is not a "rule", it is a guide. I don't see how anyone can follow a mechanical rule. Anyway, spending is variable in retirement . +1 ... As a retiree, what concerns me are not the usual recurring annual expenses, but rather the affordability of a one time large cash purchase. For example, how do...
by Beliavsky
Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlackRock Cuts Prices on ETFs
Replies: 62
Views: 7132

BlackRock Cuts Prices on ETFs

BlackRock Cuts Prices on ETFs by Sabrina Willmer Bloomberg October 5, 2016 — 12:01 AM EDT BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest provider of exchange-traded funds, is cutting prices across its core ETFs in anticipation of a new U.S. rule that may prompt more investors to pour into passive funds. The i...
by Beliavsky
Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar and P/E TTM: what a wonderful world!
Replies: 20
Views: 3202

Re: Morningstar and P/E TTM: what a wonderful world!

Following up on my previous post: It is common to value a company at a multiple of its earnings, but this breaks down when earnings are negative or close to zero. Empirically, how does the stock market value loss-making companies? Some possibilities are as a multiple of (1) average earnings over the...
by Beliavsky
Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar and P/E TTM: what a wonderful world!
Replies: 20
Views: 3202

Re: Morningstar and P/E TTM: what a wonderful world!

Ok... But... Why exactly would we ignore data points like companies in distress (e.g. negative earnings)? And why exactly is there a need to compute an average? I mean, it shouldn't be complicated to compute the PE of a fund, just add the combined market caps (in absolute $$), just add the combined...
by Beliavsky
Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar and P/E TTM: what a wonderful world!
Replies: 20
Views: 3202

Re: Morningstar and P/E TTM: what a wonderful world!

Ok, so we established that Morningstar and Prof. Siegel support a cap-weighted computation of the P/E ratio. While S&P and Prof. Shiller support a simple process of adding up market caps and earnings (which are usually proportional to the size of the company, if I may say). Cap-weighted E/P makes m...
by Beliavsky
Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjusting the x% spending rule
Replies: 27
Views: 3535

Re: Adjusting the x% spending rule

I think it is a mistake to call the 4% plan a "rule". Since it can easily be shown that such a rule contradicts itself, then it cannot really be a rule. This has been discussed at length previously: Consider two retirees the same age. Investor A has 1MM dollars, so she can withdraw 40K the first ye...
by Beliavsky
Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adjusting the x% spending rule
Replies: 27
Views: 3535

Re: Adjusting the x% spending rule

The x% spending rule says to spend x% of your portfolio the first year in retirement and to adjust spending upward each year with inflation. Bengen studied a 4% spending rule. It has the advantage of allowing for stable spending -- unless the money runs out. The initial x is chosen based on a trade...