Search found 127 matches

by Willmunny
Thu Nov 12, 2020 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard total bond etf...a poor choice
Replies: 28
Views: 4094

Re: Vanguard total bond etf...a poor choice

I've owned BND in the past. I don't own it now. I won't take the credit risk, interest rate risk, and inflation risk for a 1.15% yield. But I haven't changed my stocks vs. fixed income allocation. Fixed income has just been moved over to things such as direct bank CDs and online savings where possib...
by Willmunny
Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When to take social security - tax considerations
Replies: 3
Views: 523

When to take social security - tax considerations

I'm thinking about different social security scenarios. I am thinking about a scenario in which: (1) one has little or no taxable account investments; and (2) one has 75% - 80% of investments in traditional IRAs and about 20% - 25% in Roth IRAs. In that scenario, if one retires at 62, as I understan...
by Willmunny
Wed Oct 21, 2020 4:44 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?
Replies: 176
Views: 13541

Re: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?

I believe John Bogle timed the market prior to the dot.com bubble and significantly reduced his stock position on a temporary basis. Just FYI, he significantly reduced his stock position on a permanent basis. It was more of realizing his life situation had changed that led him to a more conservativ...
by Willmunny
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:28 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?
Replies: 176
Views: 13541

Re: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?

And what if interest rates fall further / go negative? What wins in that situation - VBTLX or I-bonds? Predicting that interest rates must go up is as foolish as trying to predict the stock market. I think there is a misunderstanding here. Nobody is trying to predict whether rates go up or down. Wh...
by Willmunny
Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ally Bank Removed Online Early Withdrawal From No-Penalty CDs
Replies: 108
Views: 9044

Re: Ally Bank Removed Online Early Withdrawal From No-Penalty CDs

Katietsu wrote: Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:25 am Given that they are paying me 1.5%, I would think they would want me to withdraw.
I wager that they do, but only if you invest the proceeds in the much lower yielding Ally Online Savings.
by Willmunny
Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?
Replies: 176
Views: 13541

Re: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?

I'm quite happy with my $387k worth of paper iBonds. I have been buying for many decades and took advantage of a time when each family member could buy $30k per year online with a credit card and no fee and then cash with interest penalty in 6 months. The family upgraded to first class on Aruba tri...
by Willmunny
Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?
Replies: 176
Views: 13541

Re: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?

I’m also on the fence, albeit for possibly different reasons. I just have a hard time getting excited for something that has a real yield of 0%. Also, I don’t feel that the inflation index that it uses tracks my personal inflation, meaning it has a negative real yield to me. I’ll be interested to h...
by Willmunny
Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds - Are they worth it to you?
Replies: 176
Views: 13541

I bonds - Are they worth it to you?

I currently own no U.S. savings bonds. Given the relatively small annual purchase limit, I would, in an ideal world, like to begin the process of gradually moving most of my emergency fund into I bonds. The purchase limit is a hassle, but the inflation protection and lack of negative real yield in t...
by Willmunny
Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody here trying Coast FIRE?
Replies: 317
Views: 26894

Re: Anybody here trying Coast FIRE?

Friends, I have no idea what coast fire is. But maybe I'm missing a really important thing. Can a kind person define it for me? Thanks, Peter It appears to me to be someone who, based on current portfolio balance and historical rates of return at his or her asset allocation, has determined that he ...
by Willmunny
Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Legal issues on helping neighbor with home repair?
Replies: 35
Views: 2831

Re: Legal issues on helping neighbor with home repair?

I'd either just help him or be honest and tell him that you wouldn't want to do the work and then have it fail....so you'd recommend that he find a professional. Even if you choose not to do the work you've done him a favor and likely prevented expensive damage to his home by informing him of the d...
by Willmunny
Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Weigh in on job decision
Replies: 32
Views: 2880

Re: Weigh in on job decision

Based on what you state, if it were me, I would offer to come into the office for a couple overnights per month (4 days in the office per month - two hotel nights per month) and the remainder remote. I would tell them that if they can't do that or something similar, you are flattered by their intere...
by Willmunny
Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest 100% in Vanguard Funds at Schwab
Replies: 15
Views: 1266

Re: Invest 100% in Vanguard Funds at Schwab

Yes, I saw that, but I figured (maybe incorrectly) that the aggregate of $250 million would not be enough to make all the Vanguard clients whole again. But I may not be looking at that correctly..... SIPC only has $3 billion. Do you think that's enough to make all Vanguard clients whole again? SIPC...
by Willmunny
Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help for wife after I pass away
Replies: 54
Views: 7629

Re: Help for wife after I pass away

Thanks for the kind words about the site. I sympathize with your situation and you are to be commended for thinking about it now. You may not wish to elaborate here, but I will take your assessment of your spouse's financial ability at face value. I think the threshold question is whether your spous...
by Willmunny
Thu Oct 15, 2020 8:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]
Replies: 222
Views: 20045

Re: Social security. Take it at 62 [Motley Fool article]

One thing that intrigues me about taking SS at 62 is that, if one has enough Roth assets and has the vast majority in taxable accounts, one can, I think, arrange ones affairs so little or no tax is paid for the 10 year period from age 62 to 72 when RMDs kick in. For example, if one withdraws first f...
by Willmunny
Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?
Replies: 91
Views: 5040

Re: Individual Stocks - 5-10% of Portfolio "Play Money" - YES or NO?

I have a couple HSA accounts due to a job change and one of them being the option given by a prior employer. The prior account is at a good major brokerage firm. I have not spent the prior account down fully and I haven't rolled it over. It is less than 1% of NW. I am over 40 years old and I have ne...
by Willmunny
Tue Oct 13, 2020 9:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which asset class will be the best in the 2020s?
Replies: 48
Views: 3046

Re: Which asset class will be the best in the 2020s?

Here's the Callan Periodic Chart showing the returns by asset class for the past twenty years , a pretty good indication that there is no way to predict which asset class will outperform in any given year. Bogleheads know that they don't know the future. But, even the most zen boglehead could have ...
by Willmunny
Mon Oct 12, 2020 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life Insurance Beneficiaries - Individuals or Trust?
Replies: 10
Views: 669

Re: Life Insurance Beneficiaries - Individuals or Trust?

Bogleheads think that buying index funds instead of paying an active manager a 1% AUM fee per year is often a good strategy. I agree. Unfortunately, that view can be conflated by some into penny wise/pound foolish thinking on other issues. For example, I think I may be able to watch some YouTube vid...
by Willmunny
Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:39 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Baseball cards - worth anything?
Replies: 26
Views: 3345

Re: Baseball cards - worth anything?

I collected in the 80s. Subject to some caveats, I am under the impression that the cards in the early 80s may be more worth more than the cards from the late 80s (at least the mass produced ones). The 87 Topps set is amazing in terms of design and quality rookies, but it appears that they printed t...
by Willmunny
Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do YOU handle home security [alarm systems]
Replies: 89
Views: 6396

How do YOU handle home security [alarm systems]

Spinning off another thread title, I am curious as to home security the Boglehead way. Did you go full service install like Vivint or ADT? DIY install like Simplisafe? Do you pay for ongoing monitoring? While I don't want to overspend on this or anything else, I would rather pay somewhat more if the...
by Willmunny
Fri Sep 18, 2020 5:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I help my mother pay off debt?
Replies: 31
Views: 2207

Re: Should I help my mother pay off debt?

I might suggest sitting down and coming up with a plan of action that you, your wife, and your mother all feel good about. Involved both of them in the conversation and see what ideas they may have to accomplish a common goal. At her age, this debt is likely hindering her ability to save more for re...
by Willmunny
Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any IPS changes with the pandemic/lower rates
Replies: 12
Views: 545

Re: Any IPS changes with the pandemic/lower rates

While it may not be an actionable thing with respect to an IPS for many, I think it is reasonable to presume that bonds will have a negative real return over the next 3-5 years. They should be thought of as dry powder rather than real income producers or assets with the potential for substantial cap...
by Willmunny
Wed Sep 16, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Two tranche I bond emergency fund?
Replies: 5
Views: 457

Two tranche I bond emergency fund?

I'm trying to think about a tax efficient way to keep an emergency fund and have liquidity. I don't own any I bonds, and I hear Treasury Direct is not the easiest site to use. That makes me a bit uneasy as one purpose of an emergency fund is to be able to access the funds quickly. So I was thinking ...
by Willmunny
Mon Aug 24, 2020 7:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?
Replies: 225
Views: 22952

Re: Quit corporate job @ age 34 with $1.3M?

Perhaps a less lucrative, less stressful job is an alternative. Perhaps taking some time off is an alternative. You are very young, so the money may need to last more than 60 years. The S&P 500 is also at an all time high as we speak. If we had a 40% correction this fall/winter and you remained ...
by Willmunny
Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Want to write a will, having trouble finding an attorney
Replies: 45
Views: 2936

Re: Want to write a will, having trouble finding an attorney

Mel Lindauer wrote: Sun Aug 23, 2020 7:03 pm Have you considered Nolo Willmaker? It walks you through a Q&A and then produces a legal will for your state. Helps you with things you may not have even thought of.
Is that what you use for your estate planning?
by Willmunny
Sat Aug 22, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cord cutting 2020 - Youtube TV
Replies: 28
Views: 2759

Cord cutting 2020 - Youtube TV

I am moving soon and I would like this to be the last cable box I own. The problem is I am a live sports fan and I want to keep ESPN and other sports networks. It looks like Youtube TV has what I want in terms of channels. I could use that along with an Amazon Fire Stick. The $65 per month is less t...
by Willmunny
Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simulated Future 10 Year Treasury Returns
Replies: 23
Views: 1195

Re: Simulated Future 10 Year Treasury Returns

Unless inflation is about 1% or lower and/or interest rates fall even more, 10 year Treasuries bought today are pretty much certain to lose out to inflation before taxes over the next decade. Why any knowledgeable investor would try to deny this seems incredulous to me, but some here clearly seem t...
by Willmunny
Tue Aug 11, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Protection of Retirement Accounts - How to withdraw?
Replies: 20
Views: 1452

Re: Asset Protection of Retirement Accounts - How to withdraw?

Doesn't Vanguard allow check writing privileges for IRA brokerage accounts if you are in retirement age?
by Willmunny
Sun Aug 09, 2020 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds for 2020
Replies: 17
Views: 2198

Re: I bonds for 2020

Interesting. It appears that the intent is to allow 10k of I bonds individually and 10k from an entity such as a rev trust. The same appears to apply to EE bonds - 10k individually and 10k for a rev trust. To avoid any confusion based on the emails reported to be sent by Treasury customer service, i...
by Willmunny
Sun Aug 09, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I bonds for 2020
Replies: 17
Views: 2198

I bonds for 2020

Do I understand it correctly that I can individually purchase up to 10k in I bonds in 2020 and my revocable trust can purchase another 10k 2020? If so, does it matter if my revocable trust uses my SSN as its taxpayer ID # or EIN?

Thanks
by Willmunny
Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?
Replies: 161
Views: 8874

Re: Gold as Part of a Portfolio?

https://goldiraguide.org/gold-price-predictions-for-2030-5-experts-weigh-in/ I know it’s an article trying to push gold however is it true because it is limited in quantity that it will hold it value better than a fiat currency such as US Dollar which is being printed at an incredible rate. People ...
by Willmunny
Tue Jun 30, 2020 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Replacing total bond index with gold ETF in my portfolio?
Replies: 16
Views: 1371

Re: Replacing total bond index with gold ETF in my portfolio?

Gold seems really popular lately, based on seeing two threads recently asking about abandoning bonds and using gold instead: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=318887 . Abandoning bonds completely seems excessive. Holding a small amount of gold is probably fine. Seriously, I ...
by Willmunny
Mon Jun 15, 2020 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Prenup? What Should It Say?
Replies: 232
Views: 11849

Re: Prenup? What Should It Say?

Engage your own legal counsel in the applicable state who specializes in domestic relations law. I cannot speak for the applicable state law in this regard, but it almost certainly appears to me that your girlfriend's mother has not established an attorney/client relationship with you. Irrespective ...
by Willmunny
Wed Jun 10, 2020 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Bad was 2008, really?
Replies: 382
Views: 49165

Re: How Bad was 2008, really?

I was young, so I was 100% equities at the time. I considered myself lucky, and: (1) My 401(k) declined in value by more than 50% (2) I went from having home equity to being upside down on my mortgage (3) My employer laid off people in similar positions to mine (although I was not laid off). I didn'...
by Willmunny
Mon Jun 08, 2020 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Asked to be a trustee
Replies: 30
Views: 2111

Re: Asked to be a trustee

If this is true, if I were your spouse, I would tell my parents that I'm honored that they are entrusting me in this role. However, I can't be sure of how the future relationship with my sister will be, whether she will have a spouse that influences her to create legal headaches, and whether I will ...
by Willmunny
Mon Jun 08, 2020 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice on my AA? 30% stocks / 70% gold
Replies: 22
Views: 1119

Re: Advice on my AA? 30% stocks / 70% gold

I don't know too much about seabed or asteroid mining, but for it to be a risk to the gold price it would need to be able to be mined with less overhead/energy consumption than conventional mining, right? Do you see that as a realistic possibility in your investment timeline? With respect to your al...
by Willmunny
Tue May 12, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: DH Laid Off - can we retire early?
Replies: 40
Views: 5013

Re: DH Laid Off - can we retire early?

I wish you well and I think you will be able to make it work. Just throwing an idea out there - Is moving (either to a more tax friendly state or a more tax friendly county in IL) an option?
by Willmunny
Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"
Replies: 164
Views: 8668

Re: Holding Gold as "Doomsday Fund"

I think there is a distinction in the type of "doomsday" people are thinking about in this thread. If it is a global doomsday (e.g., global nuclear war), then gold may very well not be something that gives a person purchasing power or the ability to barter effectively. If the doomsday is a...
by Willmunny
Thu Apr 23, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mechanics of Holding, but not Using, X-Years of Cash or Bonds?
Replies: 50
Views: 2879

Re: Mechanics of Holding, but not Using, X-Years of Cash or Bonds?

The fundamental fact is one's asset allocation is what it is, regardless of whether one thinks of it as buckets or otherwise. If a more conservative allocation is appropriate simply choose one, move to it, then continue financial operations from there. PJW Certainly one who uses buckets can at any ...
by Willmunny
Wed Apr 22, 2020 12:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mechanics of Holding, but not Using, X-Years of Cash or Bonds?
Replies: 50
Views: 2879

Re: Mechanics of Holding, but not Using, X-Years of Cash or Bonds?

The fundamental fact is one's asset allocation is what it is, regardless of whether one thinks of it as buckets or otherwise. If a more conservative allocation is appropriate simply choose one, move to it, then continue financial operations from there. PJW Certainly one who uses buckets can at any ...
by Willmunny
Sat Apr 18, 2020 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 151
Views: 18248

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

current yield on Switzerland's 50-year bond: -0.281% Interest rates here in the US can fall further. A lot further. I own long-term US treasuries because they are great at zigging when my stocks are zagging. I don't think I'm crazy. They've performed beautifully. They certainly could. But some sort...
by Willmunny
Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 151
Views: 18248

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

He's becoming like Bill Gross; constantly bloviating with predictions. I find it deeply ironic that he's saying this after he teamed up with Tony Robbins to create the "All Weather" portfolio that is 40% long Treasuries. I'm not sure I follow. If you followed his advice in the last 5 year...
by Willmunny
Thu Apr 16, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 151
Views: 18248

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

I don't know much about Dalio, so I won't make ad hominem attacks about him. I will address his claim. He is right to some extent, in my opinion. Although the headline is a simplistic exaggeration. That doesn't mean you abandon fixed income. Even compared to "quality" diversified funds lik...
by Willmunny
Thu Apr 16, 2020 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling gold and platinum
Replies: 10
Views: 790

Re: Selling gold and platinum

I don't know whether it is the time to buy platinum, but in looking at the charts it looks like it was over $2,000 an ounce at one time and was not consistently under the $800 price where it is now (approximately) since prior to 2004. I don't own any platinum and I have no idea whether it will go up...
by Willmunny
Wed Apr 15, 2020 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling gold and platinum
Replies: 10
Views: 790

Re: Selling gold and platinum

Looking at the price history charts, unless your young and foolish years were 2011 - 2013, you probably have a profit on the gold. It also appears that unless your young and foolish years were before 2004, you likely have a loss on the platinum. I have no idea what the two metals will do in the futu...
by Willmunny
Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Day the Bubble Burst," eBook flash sale, $1.99
Replies: 11
Views: 1541

Re: "The Day the Bubble Burst," eBook flash sale, $1.99

I watched a documentary about the 1929 crash recently. The thing I didn't realize is how many average American investors were buying on margin. Some were said to have only put down 10% and borrowed the other 90% from the broker. All they heard was how the market was the way to fast riches, and the 2...
by Willmunny
Sat Apr 11, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)
Replies: 1093
Views: 357433

Re: Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)

longinvest - I am at least a decade and a half away from retirement, but this system appeals to me and I am going to keep it in mind as I get closer to planning for the withdrawal phase. Thanks for being so generous with your knowledge. Cheers :sharebeer
by Willmunny
Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: might the gov't cause inflation in response to the crisis?
Replies: 6
Views: 740

Re: might the gov't cause inflation in response to the crisis?

Trillions of dollars in assets and otherwise expected productivity disappeared in this crisis. Money people thought was readily available to them (or expected to be soon available to them) suddenly wasn't. This shortage of money created would could be deflationary situation, the government responde...
by Willmunny
Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?
Replies: 97
Views: 4328

Re: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?

With the benefit of hindsight, the answer is clearly gold. That makes sense because during the prior 20 year period, gold got crushed. It lost more than 50% in nominal terms, and much more than that in real purchasing power. I wish I knew what the next 20 years will bring.
by Willmunny
Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BND
Replies: 22
Views: 2229

Re: BND

How much capital appreciation can you realistically see in BND at current yields? Do you think many investors would take on the credit risk and interest rate risk if the yield on BND reaches 1%. How about 0.5%? How about 0%? I am asking this sincerely, it is not rhetorical. At some point in there w...
by Willmunny
Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: BND
Replies: 22
Views: 2229

Re: BND

..... My former boss was a very good golfer in his youth. While he was in his late teens, he was fortunate enough to play a round with Sam Snead (not in a tournament - just a friendly round). He told me Mr. Snead didn’t talk much, but he remembers one thing very vividly. They were playing a par fiv...