Search found 205 matches
- Sat Jun 11, 2022 4:33 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Where to get small dollar bills tonight?
- Replies: 32
- Views: 4658
Re: Where to get small dollar bills tonight?
Sorry, OP, but the Bureau of Engraving and Printing does not make "small" dollar bills. All dollar bills are the same size: 6.14 inches x 2.61 inches. :mrgreen: But they can be shrunk! At one research facility, we had a pilot Clupack machine (a paper creping process). It was a favorite thing for new hires to "clupack" a few dollar bills, effectively reducing both dimensions by 30% or so. Unfortunately, a few of the folks thought it would be fun to spend some of these miniature dollar bills while on a visit to NYC. This ended when the US Treasury got involved and made it clear that this was to stop immediately or there would be serious consequences. This was 4 decades ago when a warning was sufficient, not sure what they...
- Sun May 24, 2020 10:53 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: MEMORIAL DAY
- Replies: 36
- Views: 5146
Re: MEMORIAL DAY
With all due respect to Winston Churchill and the RAF, might it more broadly be said . . .
ALWAYS WILL so much be owed by so many to so few.
ALWAYS WILL so much be owed by so many to so few.
- Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:46 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: SCV premium
- Replies: 87
- Views: 8242
Re: SCV premium
+1
I agree with this 100% though I am clearly in the minority. In the past when I have expressed this sentiment my posts have been deleted. Swedroe made the correct decision to leave this website; however, his surrogates remain. I want to come here in order to hear from other investors, I do not want information from those who will naturally be biased by their own business interests.
- Sat Feb 15, 2020 8:26 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Problem with Dividend Aristocrats Index Construction
- Replies: 6
- Views: 1464
Re: Problem with Dividend Aristocrats Index Construction
Encountered this interesting piece from Matt Levine's Bloomberg article, related to SDY ETF, which tracks S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index. Index construction rules lead to a concentrated position of about 40% in only two stocks & these two stocks had dropping market cap, resulting in falling out of index. From the article published on 17 Jan 2020: " . . . and it is awkward. SDY has built up big stakes in those companies, about 22% and 18% of the shares outstanding, respectively, and now it will have to dump them all at once. " The statement appears to refer to the percentage of each company's total shares that the fund holds, the statement does not appear to be referring to the composition of the fund (see Nisip...
- Wed Dec 25, 2019 1:12 pm
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: My Christmas Present to You
- Replies: 106
- Views: 17220
Re: My Christmas Present to You
Nedsaid - thanks for (re)posting Taylor's Christmas gift of General McAuliffe's quote and tribute. While I have nothing close to that to offer, below I've tried to post some "stocking stuffers" from that time along a similar motif. Winston S. Churchill “We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender, and even if, which I do not for a moment believe, this Island or a large part of it were subju...
- Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:16 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy
- Replies: 148
- Views: 10856
Re: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy
One answer might come from looking at how Vanguard is constructing its portfolios. Take a look at VTINX and VASIX, both of which approximate your asset allocation. You can also examine some of the other Target Retirement series and allocation funds. They are including both international stocks and bonds - and have increased the percentages of those assets in the relatively recent past (2015 I believe).
- Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:40 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Inflation-adjusted SPIAs are extinct. [was: Are Inflation-adjusted SPIAs extinct?]
- Replies: 84
- Views: 7088
Re: Inflation-adjusted SPIAs are extinct. [was: Are Inflation-adjusted SPIAs extinct?]
Yet another reason for folks to look at their options/rationale to delay SS to age 70 - i.e. "buy up" the only inflation adjusted annuity available for most folks.
- Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:04 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Sequence of Returns Risk - Mitigation/Management
- Replies: 31
- Views: 2936
Re: Sequence of Returns Risk - Mitigation/Management
Spend more (sorry to be facetious, but assuming you choose a theoretical Safe Withdrawal Rate, and we assume it is correct, then you have based your spending on the worst case historical sequence and it is likely that the risk is highly ASSYMETRIC toward spending too little and dying with a large residual - i.e. cheating yourself out of the experiences and things you could have had).
See Kitces below:
https://www.kitces.com/blog/url-upside- ... al-wealth/
See Kitces below:
https://www.kitces.com/blog/url-upside- ... al-wealth/
- Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:23 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: is real estate dead as a diversifier?
- Replies: 52
- Views: 7186
Re: is real estate dead as a diversifier?
- Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:57 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Term Life Insurance vs Permanent Life
- Replies: 26
- Views: 2194
Re: Term Life Insurance vs Permanent Life
Rough estimates for $1,000,000 coverage -
Whole Life ~$14,000/year
30 year level term ~$1,200/year
20 year level term ~$600/year
I would lean toward the 30 year product, having insurance to age 67 might be a little long, but having his policy end at 57 could be too early. Obviously with each passing year the real value of the coverage drops with inflation.
Just to start a conversation he might look at 7 to 10 times his salary as an approximation of his insurance need.
Whole Life ~$14,000/year
30 year level term ~$1,200/year
20 year level term ~$600/year
I would lean toward the 30 year product, having insurance to age 67 might be a little long, but having his policy end at 57 could be too early. Obviously with each passing year the real value of the coverage drops with inflation.
Just to start a conversation he might look at 7 to 10 times his salary as an approximation of his insurance need.
- Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:06 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Whole life insurance portability under certain scenario
- Replies: 12
- Views: 1090
Re: Whole life insurance portability under certain scenario
Tough to say without seeing a full illustration (cash values, etc), but at first blush this seems inexpensive for $1.5M of WHOLE LIFE at age 45 for a male. He may want to be very skeptical about this product.
- Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:47 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
- Replies: 97
- Views: 12895
Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Excellent thread, being financially illiterate with no kids, I have found the discussion useful.
- Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:05 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?
- Replies: 190
- Views: 13473
Re: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?
Not interested in arguing the point, but here are some thoughts on annuities (SPIAs) that might be of interest to some individuals for investigation: 1. I think some annuitization may be useful in certain circumstances, but this most likely assumes that one has taken (or will take) SS at 70; and has annuitized (not rolled) any pension benefit due. In many cases these two "annuities" will be "cheaper" than purchasing a SPIA --- do the calculation to determine. 2. The longevity benefit has been mentioned, but also consider that money in an annuity "may" be less susceptible to theft/fraud for those who begin to experience cognitive decline. 3. State Guaranty Association coverage vary both per company and per indiv...
- Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:11 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: "How to Build a Portfolio You Don't Have to Babysit"
- Replies: 18
- Views: 3222
Re: "How to Build a Portfolio You Don't Have to Babysit"
I've long considered that my late retirement portfolio will all be invested in Vanguard's Balanced Index Fund (note that there are many other single fund choices as well - with differing allocations and asset classes). A caveat being that this would be in addition to SS, pension, SPIAs and a money market account, so the stock allocation might be less than it would appear at first blush.
(full disclosure: I did not read the article - I am not a fan of Ms. Bucket)
(full disclosure: I did not read the article - I am not a fan of Ms. Bucket)
- Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:52 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
- Replies: 131
- Views: 14572
Re: Past Performance
I don't believe that I've ever met or seen a single investor who truly believes the "past performance" idea. willthrill81: You may not have met them but they are out there: Taylor, if we should ignore past performance, then how should we determine our AA? If we should ignore past performance, why have you repeatedly displayed the past performance of the 3-fund portfolio compared to other portfolios? WT8/Taylor Notwithstandng any of the data and assertions above; my interpretation is that the warnings/cautions about past performance apply to securities, mutual funds and ETFs(etc) that represent some subset of their broad market. I choose to make the assumption that I can use the historical performance of broad markets to set my as...
- Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:46 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
- Replies: 38
- Views: 6133
Re: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
An argument could be made that "China" is at 50% in the Emerging Market Index Fund - IF you include Taiwan. The countries are not linked politically (some may contest that assertion), but they, certainly, are strongly linked economically.
Emerging Mkts Stk Idx Adm
Market allocation (% of common stock)
as of 02/28/2019
China 35.8%
Taiwan 13.7%
India 10.7%
Brazil 8.6
(Etc Etc)
Emerging Mkts Stk Idx Adm
Market allocation (% of common stock)
as of 02/28/2019
China 35.8%
Taiwan 13.7%
India 10.7%
Brazil 8.6
(Etc Etc)
- Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:28 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Solid income portfolio?
- Replies: 9
- Views: 1989
Re: Solid income portfolio?
From the Vanguard Site: "Vanguard REIT Index Fund pays quarterly distributions consisting of dividend income, return of capital, and capital gains. However, the tax characteristics of these distributions cannot be determined until after the end of the year since the REITs in which the fund invests do not designate the composition (i.e., dividend income, return of capital, and capital gains) of their payments until the new calendar year. Since Vanguard cannot know the taxability of the portfolio's distributions during the year, unadjusted and adjusted effective yields are calculated. The current unadjusted effective yield is 3.26% as of 02/28/2019, which is based on the full amount of REIT distributions (dividend income, as well as retu...
- Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:10 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
- Replies: 906
- Views: 138532
Re: That's enough for me in 2019
Though, probably not too many to Doublin'
- Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:57 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Morningstar Style Returns
- Replies: 15
- Views: 2287
Re: Morningstar Style Returns
Lesson Learned : Own total market index funds and you will never underperform the market. In case anyone is interested in seeing a longer time period as reflected by actual index funds (iShares ETFs, except Vanguard's VTI), as opposed to category averages: Style..............................1 year...........3 years.......5 years........7 years.......10 years.......15 years Total Stock Market................7.74%........8.07%.......7.98%.........7.50%.........7.36%...........7.75% S&P 500 Large Cap............... 7.28% ........ 7.63% ....... 7.58% .......... 7.09% ......... 6.91% ........... 7.33% S&P 400 Mid Cap..................9.79%......10.01%........9.77%..........9.32%........9.41%...........9.60% S&P 600 Small Cap...........
- Wed Feb 20, 2019 10:56 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
- Replies: 699
- Views: 65117
Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
I believe that the validity of a 3% rule can be determined by asking - "Is this rule best for me, or is it best for professional financial advisors?"
You may find the answer without any simulations, assumptions or even basic arithmetic.
You may find the answer without any simulations, assumptions or even basic arithmetic.
- Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:53 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Kitces - Retirement Tax Rate Equilibrium
- Replies: 23
- Views: 4942
Re: Kitces - Retirement Tax Rate Equilibrium
Masterful article by Michael Kitces talking about the decision-making process for Roth conversions and tax-gain harvesting in retirement to prevent the tax torpedo at age 70 caused by the income from RMDs and SS. This is a topic talked about so often on Bogleheads. There are interesting comments too, mentioning IRMAA, ACA, charitable legacy considerations, medical deductions, i-ORP, etc. https://www.kitces.com/blog/tax-rate-equilibrium-for-retirement-taxable-income-liquidations-roth-conversions/?utm_source=Nerd%E2%80%99s+Eye+View+%7C+Kitces.com&utm_campaign=820cd2df1e-NEV_MAILCHIMP_LIST&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_4c81298299-820cd2df1e-57204617 +1 Thanks for posting, Michael is far and away my favorite blogger and in terms of F...
- Sun Dec 30, 2018 11:11 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Diversify with how many bond funds?
- Replies: 26
- Views: 2040
Re: Diversify with how many bond funds?
Here are a couple thoughts: 1. Direct Answer - I think I would split the assets between Vanguard Total Bond market Index and Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade (probably roughly equally). 2. Biased Answer - I think you are getting better advice from the other posters here with regard to choosing a single fund that contains some equity exposure, I would even go as far as to suggest considering Vanguard Wellesley income Fund. 3. Out of the Box Answer - (Attempting to focus purely on the information you have provided with regard to life expectancy, your wife wanting NO involvement with investing and your view of equities) Use as much of the portfolio as you can stomach to purchase inflation-adjusted single premium immediate annuities FOR YOU...
- Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:45 am
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Small cap tilt
- Replies: 87
- Views: 11195
Re: Small cap tilt
Even the idea of a higher return can be challenged. One issue is that the higher return is completely attributable to one single time period of nine years: 1975-1983. A small-cap investor obtained no benefit from any holding period that didn't include those years. If I only had a dollar for every time this falsehood got trotted out . . . . I should not have said " any holding period that didn't include those years" because obviously there were some during which small-caps did do better--as well as some when large-caps did better. The rest of it is straight out of Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run 5/E, 2014, p. 178, figure 12-1. https://imgur.com/Kvwjwuy.png And a quick glance at table C-1 and C-2 from the Ibbotson 2010 Class...
- Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:16 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Good time to do value investing?
- Replies: 37
- Views: 3374
Re: Good time to do value investing?
Vanguard Value Index Fund VIVAX has underperformed the Growth index VIGRX for the following periods: 15, 10, 5, 3 and 1 years, as well as YTD.
Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund VISVX has underperformed the Small Cap Growth index VISGX for the following periods: 15, 10, 3 and 1 years as well as YTD (but not over 5 years).
All per M*.
Seems as good a time as any to add/increase the value tilt.
Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund VISVX has underperformed the Small Cap Growth index VISGX for the following periods: 15, 10, 3 and 1 years as well as YTD (but not over 5 years).
All per M*.
Seems as good a time as any to add/increase the value tilt.
- Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:49 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Advice for an 87-year-old?
- Replies: 36
- Views: 2803
Re: Advice for an 87-year-old?
Is this his only savings/investments that could in the future be needed for living expenses? If so an FDIC insured account seems the only appropriate option to me. Bonds and stocks would not be appropriate especially if he's never invested in either previously in his life. I'd consider CDs which you can find in the 2-2.5+% range right now. The contributors to risk we often discuss are willingness, ability, and need. In your dad's case although surely he might need more income he does not have the ability to risk principal and it also sounds like he might not want to risk any principal. +1 . . . +2 . . . +3 . . . . As much as I wanted to suggest MM Prime, I knew that FDIC insurance was the right answer and Stan1 had given you that advice al...
- Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:30 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Is there a better way to do International than Total Index??
- Replies: 22
- Views: 3610
Re: Is there a better way to do International than Total Index??
Cannot give a complete answer but you might want to start investigating PRIDX (currently you would have to access it via a rollover, but it will open up again someday). I have held it for a long time and have been happy with the performance. If you are looking to keep your international allocation well below the market percentage, then international small/midcap might be a good choice as it has the potential to provide stronger returns along with the potential for less correlation to US equities. Full disclosure - I hold several international index funds, much more than what I have in PRIDX, which is held in a portion of my Roth IRA.
- Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:28 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Pension Lump Sum: Short-term bonds?
- Replies: 37
- Views: 2766
Re: Pension Lump Sum: Short-term bonds?
D4242, I think you are on the right track, but maybe for a different reason. It seems best that if you are forced to take your pension early as a lump sum - you should try to match the level of risk this asset would have incurred had you remained employed and been able to "keep" it (at least for those fairly close to retirement = this assumption might be poor if you have several decades to go before retiring) There are many ways to debate what that risk really is and I am sure there can be much divergence in the proper asset allocation to match it, but I think the funds/asset classes you are considering would be closer than any significant allocation to stocks. (I would add that it would have been best if this asset had already be...
- Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:25 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
- Replies: 156
- Views: 28387
Re: "Safe Withdrawal Rates? Complexity vs. Simplicity"
Bogleheads: This post is about my own retirement 37 years ago. I hope you find it helpful: Hi Bogleheads: One of the great mysteries to me are the Great Debates over Safe Withdrawal Rates (SWR). I put Safe Withdrawal Rates into Google and it came up with more than 16,000 hits. One wonders how people managed to retire without knowing their "SWR." Mathematicians love numbers. Fortunately for them, the stock and bond markets spew-out millions of numbers every day which are carefully preserved and available for them to analyze. Unfortunately for us, past performance numbers do not predict future performance. I retired in June of 1982 at the age of 57. We had about a $1 million dollar portfolio to last us the rest of our lives. I didn...
- Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:51 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?
- Replies: 45
- Views: 4875
Re: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?
A book that influenced me is an oldie - "Get Rich Slowly" by William T Spitz. Most likely you would need to buy it used at this point. Although it may feel slightly dated now, I think it is still a valuable read. The reason that I may have liked it is that when I was younger I may have related better to the writing which has slightly more of a "textbook feel" than most of the popular literature. That style may have made it feel more authoritative, and Spitz has a decent background in this regard.
Of course "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" is excellent as well.
Of course "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" is excellent as well.
- Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:14 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Helping a friend with 401k choices
- Replies: 5
- Views: 919
Re: Helping a friend with 401k choices
At the very least, take a close look at making some use of TASVX (check details on Morningstar for this fund). It is not necessarily easy to find a fund with this one's strong value and low market cap profile(s) - not to mention strong performance across multiple timeframes. The ER is actually not too bad for this type of fund, if your friend has any interest in over-weighting Small Cap Value stocks.
- Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:21 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: How does one determine their "number" and what exactly does it mean?
- Replies: 116
- Views: 15359
Re: How does one determine their "number" and what exactly does it mean?
Using Firecalc I did some VERY quick and dirty iterations to the Safe Withdrawal Rate for long periods (60,70,80,90,100,110 years) using the default settings only. Again, without spending much time, the results seemed to be generally fluctuating around a 3.2% SWR. Anyone interested in gathering some additional data beyond what it available from Portfolio Visualizer might consider trying this method (albeit a bit more rigorously than what I did in a few minutes, with adjustments to the portfolio composition, etc.). The caveat is that Firecalc sometimes seems to act strangely when inputs outside of what one might consider typical parameters are used - so look at any results carefully (there may be artifacts related to the limited periods avai...
- Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:33 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"
- Replies: 12
- Views: 2728
Re: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"
Loved it. The only think I don't like about it is that the site is gimmicked in some way to prevent copying and pasting . I was particularly interested in "Plunges are not all alike. What worked in the 2000-2002 plunged failed miserably in the 2008-2009 drop." Yes. Several asset classes got a reputation because they fulfilled the "low correlation" fantasy by going up when the stock market as a whole was going down. They got a reputation from what I call "one great shining moment." Nisiprius, Not sure what the best solution is, but on these sites I copy the information as follows using internet explorer: 1. On the Menu bar go to EDIT and the SELECT ALL (this should highlight everything). 2. Go back to EDIT and ...
- Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:38 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Vanguard Balanced Index Fund In Retirement?
- Replies: 20
- Views: 5707
Re: Vanguard Balanced Index Fund In Retirement?
I know John Bogle has often recommended the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund as your sole fund. Yet what if you're in retirement? Is the 60/40 a sound AA? I did a back test via Portfolio Visualizer starting from 2000 and on with a $1 million and a 4% withdraw rate. With both crashes during that decade and the 4% withdraw rate, you'd still have about $700k in 2017. Any thoughts? Somehow I got a different result in PV: $1,000,000 in VBINX; Withdraw $40,000 inflation adjusted every year from Jan-2000 to Feb-2017: PV Link The first withdrawal at the end of 2000 would have been $-41,354.75 and the most recent withdrawal in 2016 would have been $-57,381.38 (nominal) Portfolio Balance in Feb-2017 = $942,896 ... but even if it was a $700k balance, you...
- Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:57 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Account Withdrawal Order in Retirement
- Replies: 7
- Views: 2216
Re: Account Withdrawal Order in Retirement
Here is one article that covers the topic pretty well:
https://www.kitces.com/blog/tax-efficie ... ing-needs/
https://www.kitces.com/blog/tax-efficie ... ing-needs/
- Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are passive funds dependent on active funds?
- Replies: 24
- Views: 2389
Re: Are passive funds dependent on active funds?
So, theoretically, if the index funds share of 10% of the total market increases to 20% or maybe 30% (with the current trend and shift towards indexing) what would be the impact on the overall stock market? Are there any studies or simulations done for such a scenario and if yes, what are the conclusions. Yes, there are studies (no, I don't have references at hand). No effect at 20% or 30%. The passive percentage probably needs to hit 70% or 80% before there is significant effect. The effect will be that it will become relatively "easy" to beat the market - so it will make sense to seek out active management. So even at 80% or 90%, the problem becomes self-solving - an equilibrium will be reached. This is pretty much what I recal...
- Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:06 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Does your asset allocation derate tax-deferred holdings to account for future tax liability?
- Replies: 163
- Views: 13429
Re: Does your asset allocation derate tax-deferred holdings to account for future tax liability?
No. I choose my asset allocation based on things like my risk tolerance (primarily looking at historic drawdowns/recovery), expected return, optimization of SWR, etc. I set that allocation based on the funds that I control at any point in time and (like others, above) have sufficient fungible assets (IRA/401k) that I can rebalance to that allocation at any time - such as concurrent to a withdrawal. So my asset allocation remains constant. Here is one very basic illustration for a portfolio consisting of at Roth at $500,000 and a 401k at $1,000,000: Assuming one wishes to maintain a 50/50 allocation and maximize the Roth by maintaining 100% equities there, then the allocations would be as follows based on the total funds: Roth: 100% equity, ...
- Sun Mar 26, 2017 4:39 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Rolling 25-year real stock returns (1826-present)?
- Replies: 2
- Views: 1015
Re: Rolling 25-year real stock returns (1826-present)?
Here are some ideas for you ( to get an estimated CURRENT result for previous 25 years ): You could use Portfolio Visualizer's Backtest Asset Allocation. Run it for 25 years with 100% "US Stock Market" selected (or, I guess, 100% Global ex-US Stock Market for international). This will give you an estimate, in so much as, the calculation will run from January of the initial year to the current month of the current year (so the period will be 25/25+ years). https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation#analysisResults Using a Morningstar Chart - if you identify a desired index fund with a 25 year history - customize the chart to exactly 25 years. Take the final accumulated value, divide this number by 10000, ta...
- Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:02 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Which Vanguard Funds in Roth account?
- Replies: 10
- Views: 2184
Re: Which Vanguard Funds in Roth account?
I ran a back-of-the-envelope simulation with the following assumptions: 30 year accumulation period, $5500 inflation adjusted yearly Roth contribution, $18,000 inflation adjusted yearly 401k contribution, stock return 10% yearly, bond return 4% yearly. Applied these to two portfolios: Portfolio #1: Both Roth and 401k are maintained at 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Portfolio #2: Roth is maintained at 100% stocks while 401k is rebalanced such that the total portfolio is maintained at 60/40 (some will take issue with this, but I think adjusting all the funds you "control" to your desired allocation, based on your risk tolerance, without regard to future taxation is one valid approach). After 30 years, I am assuming that one enters retire...
- Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:01 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?
- Replies: 51
- Views: 12805
Re: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?
Replying to this thread after about 9 months of dormancy. I'm interested to know what people think now that we're officially in an interest rate rising (slowly) environment again. I have all my fixed income allocated to short-term bonds for many years, to preserve value. That has been fine, I suppose. But have I been overly conservative? What are others doing about their bond allocation? I'm sure I'll get a lot of "nothing"s from the BH purists out there. :D As it turns out, if you are talking post March 2009, or so, then you have probably been OK. Look at your holdings versus a total bond index fund using a Morningstar chart (for instance) and, chances are, you will see that the returns have either been similar or just a bit low...
- Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:34 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate Timing Problem
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2600
Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate Timing Problem
I favor the original definition of SWR which would represent a maximum rate that did not fail during any previous historic period (100% success). A definition from Kitces reads: "The origin of the safe withdrawal rate was actually rather straightforward – it’s simply the initial withdrawal rate that would have sustained inflation-adjusted spending in the worst case scenario in (US) history." So I guess I would quibble with your title, since by introducing a 5% probability of failure, I would not consider the result a SWR (though I know it is common in the literature and simulations). The upshot is that if you wish to retire at the earliest possible moment, then it might be best to make the calculation using the old/100% success ra...
- Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:47 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How much Vanguard Small Cap Value is in Vanguard Total Stock market
- Replies: 9
- Views: 4496
Re: How much Vanguard Small Cap Value is in Vanguard Total Stock market
Just to add a caution - cycles can run long - if now is not the correct entry point to time SCV, then 10 years might be too short a holding period to realize the outperformance that you are anticipating.
- Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:31 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Adults trip in May to Zion and Bryce National Parks
- Replies: 21
- Views: 3330
Re: Adults trip in May to Zion and Bryce National Parks
My info is a little dated, but when I was at Zion (besides the hikes in the main canyon area) I enjoyed the drive out/back route 9 including the switchbacks, the short hike up to canyon overlook and, further out, the view of checkerboard mesa. You may be able to do that on the day you are travelling between the parks. (Caveat, not sure if/how they have restricted personal autos, so check that)
At Bryce see if the astronomy program has started, though I think you may be too early. I enjoyed the hikes closer to the entrance, but was also glad I drove out to the end for the scenic view and, I believe, bristlecone pines.
At Bryce see if the astronomy program has started, though I think you may be too early. I enjoyed the hikes closer to the entrance, but was also glad I drove out to the end for the scenic view and, I believe, bristlecone pines.
- Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:39 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Dividends Vs Annuity
- Replies: 32
- Views: 4286
Re: Dividends Vs Annuity
For more complete information about Guaranty Associations try the link below and then redirect to the website for your state: https://www.nolhga.com/policyholderinfo/main.cfm?myDestination=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mdlifega.org I would add that by using multiple companies - each only up to the maximum covered amount in your state - you protect your assets to the greatest extent possible against the failure of ONE company. Failure of multiple companies may be problematic (see particulars for your state and some of the very general information below). My opinion has been invest only up to the maximum guarantee with several of the highest rated insurers (which might include NY Life, MassMutual, Guardian, NW Mutual, etc.) - this gives you both the guara...
- Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:24 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Total Stock Market vs S&P 500 and Small-Cap Funds?
- Replies: 12
- Views: 7183
Re: Total Stock Market vs S&P 500 and Small-Cap Funds?
I would give some thought to your time horizon along with the degree to which YOU feel that a small(er) cap and/or small cap value premium exists. You likely have 30 to 40 years of accumulation ahead of you, after which, you may have several more decades in retirement. The assets in your Roth IRA might be able to grow for 50 or more years (depending on how you ultimately fund the early part of your retirement - possibly with future 401k savings/SS/pension, for instance). Regardless, with many decades to grow, one who strongly believes in the premiums above could consider putting considerable assets into small(er) cap funds that are either value oriented or balanced. Even if the premiums do not persist/materialize, it is hard to believe that...
- Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:45 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Merriman article: 12 things every investor should know...
- Replies: 43
- Views: 7176
Re: Merriman article: 12 things every investor should know...
Not much new for Bogleheads, but it's always nice to point to some things that many here enjoy reading. It is interesting to see that tucked down toward the end of the list, Merriman seems to side with the (not insignificant) minority of BH's that believe in tilting toward small cap and/or value. The purest BH's (likely majority) probably do not agree with these points. I feel that I have benefited, especially with an overweight to small(er) caps. Merrimen's smallcap/value points from the full article: "8) Long-term investors should expect (and almost always receive) higher returns from adding small-cap stocks to their portfolios. . . 9) Long-term investors should expect (and almost always receive) higher returns from adding value sto...
- Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:09 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.
- Replies: 71
- Views: 10397
Re: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.
You might take a look at the article linked below. It is a bit dated, so you probably want to continue reading more of this author's recent posts/work. He tends to be relatively optimistic about withdrawal rates that can be generated by a retirement portfolio (i.e. to support your income needs) - the legacy question needs to be separated out and you will come to understand this better as you learn about the safe withdrawal rate concept coupled with the portfolio's range/mean/median terminal wealth for a given withdrawal rate and period.
https://www.kitces.com/wp-content/uploa ... y-2008.pdf
https://www.kitces.com/wp-content/uploa ... y-2008.pdf
- Fri Mar 03, 2017 10:02 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation
- Replies: 26
- Views: 4125
Re: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation
Here is some very basic information on Ziggyness/Zigginess if it can be of any help (data taken from NYU Stern posting below). I only included the annual calendar year returns where large cap US stocks had a negative return. Obviously this is just one piece of the puzzle and not the most granular look.. . . . . . http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/histretSP.html Thanks for taking the time. Still learning. "Ziggyness". . . . . . sort of . . . "reverse correlation". . . . ? j Sorry ST - being a little "tongue in cheek" here - I saw the term "Ziggyness" used above and loved it (though I prefer to throw away all my years of public education and spell it with a "y"!) My ...
- Fri Mar 03, 2017 8:28 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Generating Passive income
- Replies: 33
- Views: 6679
Re: Generating Passive income
Sandtrap wrote:+1PhysicianOnFIRE wrote:I would focus on obtaining Financial Independence as insurance against being unemployable in the future. Passive income is one way to do it -- real estate isn't all that passive in most cases.
A diverse portfolio of at least 25x annual expenditures (or 30 to 33x to be really, really safe) will get you there and is very likely to give you the passive income you need to last a very long time.
-PoF
Great advice.
+2
- Thu Mar 02, 2017 7:48 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation
- Replies: 26
- Views: 4125
Re: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation
Here is some very basic information on Ziggyness/Zigginess if it can be of any help (data taken from NYU Stern posting below). I only included the annual calendar year returns where large cap US stocks had a negative return. Obviously this is just one piece of the puzzle and not the most granular look. Year....S&P 500...3-month T.Bill...10-year T. Bond 1929....-8.30%........3.16%.............4.20% 1930....-25.12%.......4.55%.............4.54% 1931....-43.84%.......2.31%.............-2.56% 1932....-8.64%........1.07%.............8.79% 1934....-1.19%........0.32%............. 7.96% 1937....-35.34%.......0.30%.............1.38% 1939....-1.10%........0.04%............. 4.41% 1940....-10.67%.......0.03%.............5.40% 1941....-12.77%........
- Wed Mar 01, 2017 10:19 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Paul Kangas passed away
- Replies: 23
- Views: 5471
Re: Paul Kangas passed away
Loved watching Paul Kangas - besides being eminently professional and competent, he was just a great character. He also always seemed to project an aura of "common decency" and the tributes coming out seem to suggest that was genuine. And, of course, the sign-off pun was just such a hoot:
“I’m Paul Kangas, wishing all of you the best of good buys.” (don't forget the accompanying finger salute!)
“I’m Paul Kangas, wishing all of you the best of good buys.” (don't forget the accompanying finger salute!)