Search found 183 matches

by DG99999
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 87
Views: 6352

Re: Small cap tilt

Even the idea of a higher return can be challenged. One issue is that the higher return is completely attributable to one single time period of nine years: 1975-1983. A small-cap investor obtained no benefit from any holding period that didn't include those years. If I only had a dollar for every t...
by DG99999
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to do value investing?
Replies: 37
Views: 2644

Re: Good time to do value investing?

Vanguard Value Index Fund VIVAX has underperformed the Growth index VIGRX for the following periods: 15, 10, 5, 3 and 1 years, as well as YTD. Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund VISVX has underperformed the Small Cap Growth index VISGX for the following periods: 15, 10, 3 and 1 years as well as YTD...
by DG99999
Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for an 87-year-old?
Replies: 36
Views: 2224

Re: Advice for an 87-year-old?

Is this his only savings/investments that could in the future be needed for living expenses? If so an FDIC insured account seems the only appropriate option to me. Bonds and stocks would not be appropriate especially if he's never invested in either previously in his life. I'd consider CDs which yo...
by DG99999
Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is there a better way to do International than Total Index??
Replies: 22
Views: 2975

Re: Is there a better way to do International than Total Index??

Cannot give a complete answer but you might want to start investigating PRIDX (currently you would have to access it via a rollover, but it will open up again someday). I have held it for a long time and have been happy with the performance. If you are looking to keep your international allocation w...
by DG99999
Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pension Lump Sum: Short-term bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 2199

Re: Pension Lump Sum: Short-term bonds?

D4242, I think you are on the right track, but maybe for a different reason. It seems best that if you are forced to take your pension early as a lump sum - you should try to match the level of risk this asset would have incurred had you remained employed and been able to "keep" it (at least for tho...
by DG99999
Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 18663

Re: "Safe Withdrawal Rates? Complexity vs. Simplicity"

Bogleheads: This post is about my own retirement 37 years ago. I hope you find it helpful: Hi Bogleheads: One of the great mysteries to me are the Great Debates over Safe Withdrawal Rates (SWR). I put Safe Withdrawal Rates into Google and it came up with more than 16,000 hits. One wonders how peopl...
by DG99999
Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?
Replies: 45
Views: 3605

Re: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?

A book that influenced me is an oldie - "Get Rich Slowly" by William T Spitz. Most likely you would need to buy it used at this point. Although it may feel slightly dated now, I think it is still a valuable read. The reason that I may have liked it is that when I was younger I may have related bette...
by DG99999
Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Helping a friend with 401k choices
Replies: 5
Views: 776

Re: Helping a friend with 401k choices

At the very least, take a close look at making some use of TASVX (check details on Morningstar for this fund). It is not necessarily easy to find a fund with this one's strong value and low market cap profile(s) - not to mention strong performance across multiple timeframes. The ER is actually not t...
by DG99999
Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does one determine their "number" and what exactly does it mean?
Replies: 116
Views: 13315

Re: How does one determine their "number" and what exactly does it mean?

Using Firecalc I did some VERY quick and dirty iterations to the Safe Withdrawal Rate for long periods (60,70,80,90,100,110 years) using the default settings only. Again, without spending much time, the results seemed to be generally fluctuating around a 3.2% SWR. Anyone interested in gathering some...
by DG99999
Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"
Replies: 12
Views: 2495

Re: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"

Loved it. The only think I don't like about it is that the site is gimmicked in some way to prevent copying and pasting . I was particularly interested in "Plunges are not all alike. What worked in the 2000-2002 plunged failed miserably in the 2008-2009 drop." Yes. Several asset classes got a reput...
by DG99999
Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Balanced Index Fund In Retirement?
Replies: 20
Views: 4508

Re: Vanguard Balanced Index Fund In Retirement?

I know John Bogle has often recommended the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund as your sole fund. Yet what if you're in retirement? Is the 60/40 a sound AA? I did a back test via Portfolio Visualizer starting from 2000 and on with a $1 million and a 4% withdraw rate. With both crashes during that decade ...
by DG99999
Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are passive funds dependent on active funds?
Replies: 24
Views: 2056

Re: Are passive funds dependent on active funds?

So, theoretically, if the index funds share of 10% of the total market increases to 20% or maybe 30% (with the current trend and shift towards indexing) what would be the impact on the overall stock market? Are there any studies or simulations done for such a scenario and if yes, what are the concl...
by DG99999
Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your asset allocation derate tax-deferred holdings to account for future tax liability?
Replies: 163
Views: 11665

Re: Does your asset allocation derate tax-deferred holdings to account for future tax liability?

No. I choose my asset allocation based on things like my risk tolerance (primarily looking at historic drawdowns/recovery), expected return, optimization of SWR, etc. I set that allocation based on the funds that I control at any point in time and (like others, above) have sufficient fungible assets...
by DG99999
Sun Mar 26, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling 25-year real stock returns (1826-present)?
Replies: 2
Views: 869

Re: Rolling 25-year real stock returns (1826-present)?

Here are some ideas for you ( to get an estimated CURRENT result for previous 25 years ): You could use Portfolio Visualizer's Backtest Asset Allocation. Run it for 25 years with 100% "US Stock Market" selected (or, I guess, 100% Global ex-US Stock Market for international). This will give you an es...
by DG99999
Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Which Vanguard Funds in Roth account?
Replies: 10
Views: 1999

Re: Which Vanguard Funds in Roth account?

I ran a back-of-the-envelope simulation with the following assumptions: 30 year accumulation period, $5500 inflation adjusted yearly Roth contribution, $18,000 inflation adjusted yearly 401k contribution, stock return 10% yearly, bond return 4% yearly. Applied these to two portfolios: Portfolio #1: ...
by DG99999
Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?
Replies: 51
Views: 9280

Re: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?

Replying to this thread after about 9 months of dormancy. I'm interested to know what people think now that we're officially in an interest rate rising (slowly) environment again. I have all my fixed income allocated to short-term bonds for many years, to preserve value. That has been fine, I suppo...
by DG99999
Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate Timing Problem
Replies: 20
Views: 2244

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate Timing Problem

I favor the original definition of SWR which would represent a maximum rate that did not fail during any previous historic period (100% success). A definition from Kitces reads: "The origin of the safe withdrawal rate was actually rather straightforward – it’s simply the initial withdrawal rate that...
by DG99999
Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How much Vanguard Small Cap Value is in Vanguard Total Stock market
Replies: 9
Views: 1780

Re: How much Vanguard Small Cap Value is in Vanguard Total Stock market

Just to add a caution - cycles can run long - if now is not the correct entry point to time SCV, then 10 years might be too short a holding period to realize the outperformance that you are anticipating.
by DG99999
Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adults trip in May to Zion and Bryce National Parks
Replies: 21
Views: 2869

Re: Adults trip in May to Zion and Bryce National Parks

My info is a little dated, but when I was at Zion (besides the hikes in the main canyon area) I enjoyed the drive out/back route 9 including the switchbacks, the short hike up to canyon overlook and, further out, the view of checkerboard mesa. You may be able to do that on the day you are travelling...
by DG99999
Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Vs Annuity
Replies: 32
Views: 3686

Re: Dividends Vs Annuity

For more complete information about Guaranty Associations try the link below and then redirect to the website for your state: https://www.nolhga.com/policyholderinfo/main.cfm?myDestination=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mdlifega.org I would add that by using multiple companies - each only up to the maximum covere...
by DG99999
Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total Stock Market vs S&P 500 and Small-Cap Funds?
Replies: 12
Views: 6447

Re: Total Stock Market vs S&P 500 and Small-Cap Funds?

I would give some thought to your time horizon along with the degree to which YOU feel that a small(er) cap and/or small cap value premium exists. You likely have 30 to 40 years of accumulation ahead of you, after which, you may have several more decades in retirement. The assets in your Roth IRA mi...
by DG99999
Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman article: 12 things every investor should know...
Replies: 43
Views: 6667

Re: Merriman article: 12 things every investor should know...

Not much new for Bogleheads, but it's always nice to point to some things that many here enjoy reading. It is interesting to see that tucked down toward the end of the list, Merriman seems to side with the (not insignificant) minority of BH's that believe in tilting toward small cap and/or value. T...
by DG99999
Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.
Replies: 71
Views: 9513

Re: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.

You might take a look at the article linked below. It is a bit dated, so you probably want to continue reading more of this author's recent posts/work. He tends to be relatively optimistic about withdrawal rates that can be generated by a retirement portfolio (i.e. to support your income needs) - th...
by DG99999
Fri Mar 03, 2017 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation
Replies: 26
Views: 3776

Re: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation

Here is some very basic information on Ziggyness/Zigginess if it can be of any help (data taken from NYU Stern posting below). I only included the annual calendar year returns where large cap US stocks had a negative return. Obviously this is just one piece of the puzzle and not the most granular l...
by DG99999
Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Generating Passive income
Replies: 33
Views: 5714

Re: Generating Passive income

I would focus on obtaining Financial Independence as insurance against being unemployable in the future. Passive income is one way to do it -- real estate isn't all that passive in most cases. A diverse portfolio of at least 25x annual expenditures (or 30 to 33x to be really, really safe) will get ...
by DG99999
Thu Mar 02, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation
Replies: 26
Views: 3776

Re: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation

Here is some very basic information on Ziggyness/Zigginess if it can be of any help (data taken from NYU Stern posting below). I only included the annual calendar year returns where large cap US stocks had a negative return. Obviously this is just one piece of the puzzle and not the most granular lo...
by DG99999
Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Kangas passed away
Replies: 23
Views: 4622

Re: Paul Kangas passed away

Loved watching Paul Kangas - besides being eminently professional and competent, he was just a great character. He also always seemed to project an aura of "common decency" and the tributes coming out seem to suggest that was genuine. And, of course, the sign-off pun was just such a hoot: “I’m Paul ...
by DG99999
Mon Feb 27, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Buffett: Indexing the Best Choice for Investors Large and Small"
Replies: 16
Views: 3274

Re: Never underestimate the power of marketing

Seriously, it amazes me that anyone even debates this anymore. WolfgangPauli: Don't be amazed. Just as the gambling casinos tell people they can win, the investment industry spends billions of dollars each year telling investors they can "beat the market." Act as if every broker, insurance salesman...
by DG99999
Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is 60/40 too conservative for 31 year old?
Replies: 69
Views: 9774

Re: Is 60/40 too conservative for 31 year old?

While I have not tried to research why this is - it would seem that there must be a good reason that Balanced Funds typically target approximately a 60/40 ratio (or at least do so on average). It may be that there is some explicit explanation based on risk-adjusted returns, but, if not, there may be...
by DG99999
Sun Feb 19, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fund recommendation
Replies: 20
Views: 2448

Re: Fund recommendation

Hello everyone: Currently I’m investing 100% in Vanguard Total Stock(VTSAX) for both my retirement and non-retirement. I want to invest only in US stocks. Investing only in one fund may be risky, so I’m thinking to add one or more additional funds to diversify it and minimize the risk to some degre...
by DG99999
Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?
Replies: 28
Views: 3634

Re: Are stock valuations so high because interest rates are so low?

Kitces has some information on using CAPE to assist in setting/adjusting SWR. Here is one link:

https://www.kitces.com/may-2008-issue-o ... es-report/

Google to find his more recent articles.
by DG99999
Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuity insurance in California
Replies: 5
Views: 909

Re: Annuity insurance in California

I don't think any of them are prefunded. Your description is my understanding of how they work. An insurance company's guarantee is probably only as good as the insurance company. But you might get lucky and get something from the state guaranty corp (which is not backed by the state.) Agree with W...
by DG99999
Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What expected % return should a longterm investor use?
Replies: 73
Views: 11547

Re: What expected % return should a longterm investor use?

I use 9% for my stock allocation and 4% for my bonds (I want to be conservative). Here is a Vanguard chart with various allocations: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/saving-investing/model-portfolio-allocations I'm honestly trying to figure this comment out -- how is this considered conser...
by DG99999
Thu Feb 09, 2017 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Life insurance policy question
Replies: 23
Views: 1901

Re: Life insurance policy question

Hello all, As I'm sure many of you do, I maintain a nice excel spreadsheet for my portfolio which includes 401k, IRAs, savings etc. My question is, do I also include my 3rd party life insurance policy in these calculations? I have a 150k policy purchased in Oct 2013. The current cash value is a lit...
by DG99999
Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [403(b) Fidelity or TIAA Cref allocation, and do I want one?]
Replies: 137
Views: 7140

Re: EJ not [costing me as much as] others?

Here are some "back of the envelope" numbers you can use to compare with your own calculations as you work through a decision making process. I tried to calculate the total fees one would pay over 10, 20 and 30 years for a taxable account with a starting value of $500K using a return of 8% each year...
by DG99999
Mon May 09, 2016 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does T.R. Price add value for its investors
Replies: 43
Views: 6992

Re: Does T.R. Price add value for its investors

So then funds like TRP Mid-cap Growth and Mid-cap value (etc.) are not included because they have no DFA equivalent or are not considered relevant (they do have substantially equivalent Vanguard index funds). To me, it appears that the analysis is DFA centric which is an observation, not necessarily...
by DG99999
Mon May 09, 2016 6:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does T.R. Price add value for its investors
Replies: 43
Views: 6992

Re: Does T.R. Price add value for its investors

I think the work is informative, but one needs to appreciate that it is done for one specific period of time and for a selection/subset of the firm's funds (which may possibly be chosen primarily as they relate to the author's business interests). The title seems to imply a somewhat broader conclusi...
by DG99999
Sat Mar 26, 2016 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Mitigating the Risks of Cognitive Decline"
Replies: 45
Views: 7315

Re: "Mitigating the Risks of Cognitive Decline"

Wildebeest wrote:I do believe that waiting getting Social security till 70, and getting SPIA's if one is concerned about cognitive decline or just running out of money are prudent measures to take.
Tremendous suggestions Wilde. :wink:
by DG99999
Sat Mar 26, 2016 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2 Buckets or 3 Buckets in Retirement??
Replies: 72
Views: 11151

Re: 2 Buckets or 3 Buckets in Retirement??

5. I also have never seen a complete and understandable presentation of how the buckets look over the course of 30+ years - that is until I saw the graph presented by AlohaJoe. I may not completely agree with all the assumptions that went into that graph, but one has to wonder why Morningstar has n...
by DG99999
Sat Mar 26, 2016 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spouse contributing to my Roth question
Replies: 25
Views: 2585

Re: Spouse contributing to my Roth question

From Livesoft's IRS Publication link (above): Spousal IRAs If you file a joint return, you may be able to contribute to an IRA even if you did not have taxable compensation as long as your spouse did. The amount of your combined contributions can’t be more than the taxable compensation reported on y...
by DG99999
Fri Mar 25, 2016 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 2 Buckets or 3 Buckets in Retirement??
Replies: 72
Views: 11151

Re: 2 Buckets or 3 Buckets in Retirement??

OK, let me start by saying I detest buckets so take my comments accordingly. I would recommend no buckets, rather a well-allocated portfolio of (primarily) stocks and bonds from which you draw yearly expenses at a rate less than or equal to a safe withdrawal rate (yes I like the simple SWR concept, ...
by DG99999
Thu Mar 24, 2016 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hybred/Index annuity
Replies: 8
Views: 927

Re: Hybred/Index annuity

Using SPIAs is probably the best choice to meet your needs, but also take a look at QLACs (Qualified Longevity Annuity Contract) to see how this might fit with your particular situation and whether it could become part of an overall plan.
by DG99999
Fri Mar 18, 2016 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Hulbert Financial Digest says goodbye
Replies: 15
Views: 4180

Re: The Hulbert Financial Digest says goodbye

From Forbes: And he encouraged investors to think long term. Although the Hulbert Financial Digest tracked advisors over 5-, 10-, and 20-year periods, Hulbert believed that longer-term performance was more meaningful. “I used to think that five years was long enough to separate out those [advisors] ...
by DG99999
Fri Mar 18, 2016 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis
Replies: 104
Views: 11034

Re: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis

What I find amusing, in all this, is that investors are almost always told to direct any new money towards lagging assets. But, by doing so, they are effectively rebalancing (even if only partially), and thus invalidating all these backtesting studies (as model). If one really believed that there's...
by DG99999
Thu Mar 17, 2016 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Premium Deferred Annuity
Replies: 16
Views: 2162

Re: Single Premium Deferred Annuity

Here is one data set showing the monthly payout based on a $100,000 payment for a male. This covers ages 60 to 82 with either an immediate payout or delays of 5, 10 or 15 years. This is a real wild guess, but I wonder if the anomaly could have something to do with "supply"/"demand" around QLACs?? In...
by DG99999
Thu Mar 17, 2016 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis
Replies: 104
Views: 11034

Re: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis

If someone could demonstrate that there is a rebalancing penalty for a set of "band-rebalanced" portfolios (et. al.) versus a yearly rebalanced portfolio, that would be very important. I believe such work would tend to refute the Gobind Daryanani published paper on opportunistic rebalancing. Until ...
by DG99999
Thu Mar 17, 2016 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Whether you call it rebalancing or market timing
Replies: 30
Views: 3690

Re: Whether you call it rebalancing or market timing

Agree with the comments that this would be a change to the asset allocation (strategic hopefully) and is not rebalancing. If it is a tactical change, then it is probably too large. My concern would be that if you adhere to the Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) concept, this stock allocation is on the low s...
by DG99999
Wed Mar 16, 2016 12:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis
Replies: 104
Views: 11034

Re: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis

. . . . The conclusions that this comparison between buy and hold vs rebalanced portfolios yields were self evident/obvious to begin with. Higher return asset class will dominate. Have to agree with The Edge (at least looking at the long term), as well as some of the comments by Siamond, Tetractys ...