Search found 203 matches

by DG99999
Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SCV premium
Replies: 87
Views: 4195

Re: SCV premium

All the BAM related posts should be deleted . . . +1 I agree with this 100% though I am clearly in the minority. In the past when I have expressed this sentiment my posts have been deleted. Swedroe made the correct decision to leave this website; however, his surrogates remain. I want to come here ...
by DG99999
Sat Feb 15, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Problem with Dividend Aristocrats Index Construction
Replies: 6
Views: 990

Re: Problem with Dividend Aristocrats Index Construction

Encountered this interesting piece from Matt Levine's Bloomberg article, related to SDY ETF, which tracks S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index. Index construction rules lead to a concentrated position of about 40% in only two stocks & these two stocks had dropping market cap, resulting in fall...
by DG99999
Wed Dec 25, 2019 2:12 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: My Christmas Present to You
Replies: 106
Views: 13685

Re: My Christmas Present to You

Nedsaid - thanks for (re)posting Taylor's Christmas gift of General McAuliffe's quote and tribute. While I have nothing close to that to offer, below I've tried to post some "stocking stuffers" from that time along a similar motif. Winston S. Churchill “We shall go on to the end, we shall fight in F...
by DG99999
Sat Dec 14, 2019 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy
Replies: 148
Views: 8417

Re: Federal Budget Deficit Risks and Investment Strategy

One answer might come from looking at how Vanguard is constructing its portfolios. Take a look at VTINX and VASIX, both of which approximate your asset allocation. You can also examine some of the other Target Retirement series and allocation funds. They are including both international stocks and b...
by DG99999
Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation-adjusted SPIAs are extinct. [was: Are Inflation-adjusted SPIAs extinct?]
Replies: 79
Views: 4532

Re: Inflation-adjusted SPIAs are extinct. [was: Are Inflation-adjusted SPIAs extinct?]

Yet another reason for folks to look at their options/rationale to delay SS to age 70 - i.e. "buy up" the only inflation adjusted annuity available for most folks.
by DG99999
Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Sequence of Returns Risk - Mitigation/Management
Replies: 31
Views: 2554

Re: Sequence of Returns Risk - Mitigation/Management

Spend more (sorry to be facetious, but assuming you choose a theoretical Safe Withdrawal Rate, and we assume it is correct, then you have based your spending on the worst case historical sequence and it is likely that the risk is highly ASSYMETRIC toward spending too little and dying with a large re...
by DG99999
Sat Sep 14, 2019 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: is real estate dead as a diversifier?
Replies: 52
Views: 6380

Re: is real estate dead as a diversifier?

Pretty convoluted explanation to try to explain away wrong use of terminology... Please don't comment if you aren't interested in real discussion. Just amazing that some folks would rather parse words than discuss investment concepts. Agreed, most of us appreciate Nedsaid's years of helpful, insigh...
by DG99999
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Term Life Insurance vs Permanent Life
Replies: 26
Views: 1822

Re: Term Life Insurance vs Permanent Life

Rough estimates for $1,000,000 coverage - Whole Life ~$14,000/year 30 year level term ~$1,200/year 20 year level term ~$600/year I would lean toward the 30 year product, having insurance to age 67 might be a little long, but having his policy end at 57 could be too early. Obviously with each passin...
by DG99999
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole life insurance portability under certain scenario
Replies: 12
Views: 952

Re: Whole life insurance portability under certain scenario

Hello, . . . . individual whole life insurance with a cost of $800/month for $1.5M coverage. So my question is that is it worth to go with this option? Tough to say without seeing a full illustration (cash values, etc), but at first blush this seems inexpensive for $1.5M of WHOLE LIFE at age 45 for...
by DG99999
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?
Replies: 97
Views: 11040

Re: Permanent DINK couples - Considerations, thoughts, etc?

Excellent thread, being financially illiterate with no kids, I have found the discussion useful.
by DG99999
Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?
Replies: 190
Views: 11586

Re: Are annuities the best way to fund one's retirement?

Not interested in arguing the point, but here are some thoughts on annuities (SPIAs) that might be of interest to some individuals for investigation: 1. I think some annuitization may be useful in certain circumstances, but this most likely assumes that one has taken (or will take) SS at 70; and has...
by DG99999
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "How to Build a Portfolio You Don't Have to Babysit"
Replies: 18
Views: 2955

Re: "How to Build a Portfolio You Don't Have to Babysit"

I've long considered that my late retirement portfolio will all be invested in Vanguard's Balanced Index Fund (note that there are many other single fund choices as well - with differing allocations and asset classes). A caveat being that this would be in addition to SS, pension, SPIAs and a money m...
by DG99999
Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics."
Replies: 131
Views: 12919

Re: Past Performance

I don't believe that I've ever met or seen a single investor who truly believes the "past performance" idea. willthrill81: You may not have met them but they are out there: Taylor, if we should ignore past performance, then how should we determine our AA? If we should ignore past performance, why h...
by DG99999
Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
Replies: 38
Views: 5581

Re: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article

An argument could be made that "China" is at 50% in the Emerging Market Index Fund - IF you include Taiwan. The countries are not linked politically (some may contest that assertion), but they, certainly, are strongly linked economically. Emerging Mkts Stk Idx Adm Market allocation (% of common stoc...
by DG99999
Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Solid income portfolio?
Replies: 9
Views: 1445

Re: Solid income portfolio?

From the Vanguard Site: "Vanguard REIT Index Fund pays quarterly distributions consisting of dividend income, return of capital, and capital gains. However, the tax characteristics of these distributions cannot be determined until after the end of the year since the REITs in which the fund invests d...
by DG99999
Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 906
Views: 122848

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

willthrill81 wrote:
Sat Mar 16, 2019 10:20 am
. . . There are many roads to Dublin.
Though, probably not too many to Doublin'
by DG99999
Sat Mar 16, 2019 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar Style Returns
Replies: 15
Views: 2069

Re: Morningstar Style Returns

Lesson Learned : Own total market index funds and you will never underperform the market. In case anyone is interested in seeing a longer time period as reflected by actual index funds (iShares ETFs, except Vanguard's VTI), as opposed to category averages: Style..............................1 year....
by DG99999
Wed Feb 20, 2019 11:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 699
Views: 56354

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

I believe that the validity of a 3% rule can be determined by asking - "Is this rule best for me, or is it best for professional financial advisors?"

You may find the answer without any simulations, assumptions or even basic arithmetic.
by DG99999
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Kitces - Retirement Tax Rate Equilibrium
Replies: 23
Views: 3978

Re: Kitces - Retirement Tax Rate Equilibrium

Masterful article by Michael Kitces talking about the decision-making process for Roth conversions and tax-gain harvesting in retirement to prevent the tax torpedo at age 70 caused by the income from RMDs and SS. This is a topic talked about so often on Bogleheads. There are interesting comments to...
by DG99999
Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversify with how many bond funds?
Replies: 26
Views: 1636

Re: Diversify with how many bond funds?

Here are a couple thoughts: 1. Direct Answer - I think I would split the assets between Vanguard Total Bond market Index and Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade (probably roughly equally). 2. Biased Answer - I think you are getting better advice from the other posters here with regard to choosing a...
by DG99999
Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Small cap tilt
Replies: 87
Views: 8041

Re: Small cap tilt

Even the idea of a higher return can be challenged. One issue is that the higher return is completely attributable to one single time period of nine years: 1975-1983. A small-cap investor obtained no benefit from any holding period that didn't include those years. If I only had a dollar for every t...
by DG99999
Thu Sep 06, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to do value investing?
Replies: 37
Views: 3042

Re: Good time to do value investing?

Vanguard Value Index Fund VIVAX has underperformed the Growth index VIGRX for the following periods: 15, 10, 5, 3 and 1 years, as well as YTD. Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund VISVX has underperformed the Small Cap Growth index VISGX for the following periods: 15, 10, 3 and 1 years as well as YTD...
by DG99999
Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Advice for an 87-year-old?
Replies: 36
Views: 2434

Re: Advice for an 87-year-old?

Is this his only savings/investments that could in the future be needed for living expenses? If so an FDIC insured account seems the only appropriate option to me. Bonds and stocks would not be appropriate especially if he's never invested in either previously in his life. I'd consider CDs which yo...
by DG99999
Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is there a better way to do International than Total Index??
Replies: 22
Views: 3325

Re: Is there a better way to do International than Total Index??

Cannot give a complete answer but you might want to start investigating PRIDX (currently you would have to access it via a rollover, but it will open up again someday). I have held it for a long time and have been happy with the performance. If you are looking to keep your international allocation w...
by DG99999
Sat Jul 21, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pension Lump Sum: Short-term bonds?
Replies: 37
Views: 2361

Re: Pension Lump Sum: Short-term bonds?

D4242, I think you are on the right track, but maybe for a different reason. It seems best that if you are forced to take your pension early as a lump sum - you should try to match the level of risk this asset would have incurred had you remained employed and been able to "keep" it (at least for tho...
by DG99999
Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trinity Study updated to 2018
Replies: 156
Views: 25885

Re: "Safe Withdrawal Rates? Complexity vs. Simplicity"

Bogleheads: This post is about my own retirement 37 years ago. I hope you find it helpful: Hi Bogleheads: One of the great mysteries to me are the Great Debates over Safe Withdrawal Rates (SWR). I put Safe Withdrawal Rates into Google and it came up with more than 16,000 hits. One wonders how peopl...
by DG99999
Sat Feb 17, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?
Replies: 45
Views: 3913

Re: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?

A book that influenced me is an oldie - "Get Rich Slowly" by William T Spitz. Most likely you would need to buy it used at this point. Although it may feel slightly dated now, I think it is still a valuable read. The reason that I may have liked it is that when I was younger I may have related bette...
by DG99999
Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Helping a friend with 401k choices
Replies: 5
Views: 831

Re: Helping a friend with 401k choices

At the very least, take a close look at making some use of TASVX (check details on Morningstar for this fund). It is not necessarily easy to find a fund with this one's strong value and low market cap profile(s) - not to mention strong performance across multiple timeframes. The ER is actually not t...
by DG99999
Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How does one determine their "number" and what exactly does it mean?
Replies: 116
Views: 14418

Re: How does one determine their "number" and what exactly does it mean?

Using Firecalc I did some VERY quick and dirty iterations to the Safe Withdrawal Rate for long periods (60,70,80,90,100,110 years) using the default settings only. Again, without spending much time, the results seemed to be generally fluctuating around a 3.2% SWR. Anyone interested in gathering some...
by DG99999
Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"
Replies: 12
Views: 2597

Re: "10-investing-lessons-of-the-century (so-far)"

Loved it. The only think I don't like about it is that the site is gimmicked in some way to prevent copying and pasting . I was particularly interested in "Plunges are not all alike. What worked in the 2000-2002 plunged failed miserably in the 2008-2009 drop." Yes. Several asset classes got a reput...
by DG99999
Thu Mar 30, 2017 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Balanced Index Fund In Retirement?
Replies: 20
Views: 4994

Re: Vanguard Balanced Index Fund In Retirement?

I know John Bogle has often recommended the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund as your sole fund. Yet what if you're in retirement? Is the 60/40 a sound AA? I did a back test via Portfolio Visualizer starting from 2000 and on with a $1 million and a 4% withdraw rate. With both crashes during that decade ...
by DG99999
Thu Mar 30, 2017 9:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Account Withdrawal Order in Retirement
Replies: 7
Views: 1881

Re: Account Withdrawal Order in Retirement

Here is one article that covers the topic pretty well:

https://www.kitces.com/blog/tax-efficie ... ing-needs/
by DG99999
Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are passive funds dependent on active funds?
Replies: 24
Views: 2185

Re: Are passive funds dependent on active funds?

So, theoretically, if the index funds share of 10% of the total market increases to 20% or maybe 30% (with the current trend and shift towards indexing) what would be the impact on the overall stock market? Are there any studies or simulations done for such a scenario and if yes, what are the concl...
by DG99999
Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your asset allocation derate tax-deferred holdings to account for future tax liability?
Replies: 163
Views: 12345

Re: Does your asset allocation derate tax-deferred holdings to account for future tax liability?

No. I choose my asset allocation based on things like my risk tolerance (primarily looking at historic drawdowns/recovery), expected return, optimization of SWR, etc. I set that allocation based on the funds that I control at any point in time and (like others, above) have sufficient fungible assets...
by DG99999
Sun Mar 26, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rolling 25-year real stock returns (1826-present)?
Replies: 2
Views: 931

Re: Rolling 25-year real stock returns (1826-present)?

Here are some ideas for you ( to get an estimated CURRENT result for previous 25 years ): You could use Portfolio Visualizer's Backtest Asset Allocation. Run it for 25 years with 100% "US Stock Market" selected (or, I guess, 100% Global ex-US Stock Market for international). This will give you an es...
by DG99999
Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Which Vanguard Funds in Roth account?
Replies: 10
Views: 2103

Re: Which Vanguard Funds in Roth account?

I ran a back-of-the-envelope simulation with the following assumptions: 30 year accumulation period, $5500 inflation adjusted yearly Roth contribution, $18,000 inflation adjusted yearly 401k contribution, stock return 10% yearly, bond return 4% yearly. Applied these to two portfolios: Portfolio #1: ...
by DG99999
Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?
Replies: 51
Views: 12216

Re: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?

Replying to this thread after about 9 months of dormancy. I'm interested to know what people think now that we're officially in an interest rate rising (slowly) environment again. I have all my fixed income allocated to short-term bonds for many years, to preserve value. That has been fine, I suppo...
by DG99999
Tue Mar 21, 2017 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate Timing Problem
Replies: 20
Views: 2358

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate Timing Problem

I favor the original definition of SWR which would represent a maximum rate that did not fail during any previous historic period (100% success). A definition from Kitces reads: "The origin of the safe withdrawal rate was actually rather straightforward – it’s simply the initial withdrawal rate that...
by DG99999
Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How much Vanguard Small Cap Value is in Vanguard Total Stock market
Replies: 9
Views: 2997

Re: How much Vanguard Small Cap Value is in Vanguard Total Stock market

Just to add a caution - cycles can run long - if now is not the correct entry point to time SCV, then 10 years might be too short a holding period to realize the outperformance that you are anticipating.
by DG99999
Tue Mar 21, 2017 10:31 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adults trip in May to Zion and Bryce National Parks
Replies: 21
Views: 3034

Re: Adults trip in May to Zion and Bryce National Parks

My info is a little dated, but when I was at Zion (besides the hikes in the main canyon area) I enjoyed the drive out/back route 9 including the switchbacks, the short hike up to canyon overlook and, further out, the view of checkerboard mesa. You may be able to do that on the day you are travelling...
by DG99999
Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends Vs Annuity
Replies: 32
Views: 3825

Re: Dividends Vs Annuity

For more complete information about Guaranty Associations try the link below and then redirect to the website for your state: https://www.nolhga.com/policyholderinfo/main.cfm?myDestination=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mdlifega.org I would add that by using multiple companies - each only up to the maximum covere...
by DG99999
Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Total Stock Market vs S&P 500 and Small-Cap Funds?
Replies: 12
Views: 6870

Re: Total Stock Market vs S&P 500 and Small-Cap Funds?

I would give some thought to your time horizon along with the degree to which YOU feel that a small(er) cap and/or small cap value premium exists. You likely have 30 to 40 years of accumulation ahead of you, after which, you may have several more decades in retirement. The assets in your Roth IRA mi...
by DG99999
Sat Mar 11, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Merriman article: 12 things every investor should know...
Replies: 43
Views: 6838

Re: Merriman article: 12 things every investor should know...

Not much new for Bogleheads, but it's always nice to point to some things that many here enjoy reading. It is interesting to see that tucked down toward the end of the list, Merriman seems to side with the (not insignificant) minority of BH's that believe in tilting toward small cap and/or value. T...
by DG99999
Fri Mar 10, 2017 11:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.
Replies: 71
Views: 9831

Re: About to retire and need to realize 5%/year to live on.

You might take a look at the article linked below. It is a bit dated, so you probably want to continue reading more of this author's recent posts/work. He tends to be relatively optimistic about withdrawal rates that can be generated by a retirement portfolio (i.e. to support your income needs) - th...
by DG99999
Fri Mar 03, 2017 11:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation
Replies: 26
Views: 3863

Re: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation

Here is some very basic information on Ziggyness/Zigginess if it can be of any help (data taken from NYU Stern posting below). I only included the annual calendar year returns where large cap US stocks had a negative return. Obviously this is just one piece of the puzzle and not the most granular l...
by DG99999
Fri Mar 03, 2017 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Generating Passive income
Replies: 33
Views: 6181

Re: Generating Passive income

I would focus on obtaining Financial Independence as insurance against being unemployable in the future. Passive income is one way to do it -- real estate isn't all that passive in most cases. A diverse portfolio of at least 25x annual expenditures (or 30 to 33x to be really, really safe) will get ...
by DG99999
Thu Mar 02, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation
Replies: 26
Views: 3863

Re: Bear-Proof Bond Allocation

Here is some very basic information on Ziggyness/Zigginess if it can be of any help (data taken from NYU Stern posting below). I only included the annual calendar year returns where large cap US stocks had a negative return. Obviously this is just one piece of the puzzle and not the most granular lo...
by DG99999
Wed Mar 01, 2017 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Kangas passed away
Replies: 23
Views: 4889

Re: Paul Kangas passed away

Loved watching Paul Kangas - besides being eminently professional and competent, he was just a great character. He also always seemed to project an aura of "common decency" and the tributes coming out seem to suggest that was genuine. And, of course, the sign-off pun was just such a hoot: “I’m Paul ...
by DG99999
Mon Feb 27, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Buffett: Indexing the Best Choice for Investors Large and Small"
Replies: 16
Views: 3439

Re: Never underestimate the power of marketing

Seriously, it amazes me that anyone even debates this anymore. WolfgangPauli: Don't be amazed. Just as the gambling casinos tell people they can win, the investment industry spends billions of dollars each year telling investors they can "beat the market." Act as if every broker, insurance salesman...
by DG99999
Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is 60/40 too conservative for 31 year old?
Replies: 69
Views: 10659

Re: Is 60/40 too conservative for 31 year old?

While I have not tried to research why this is - it would seem that there must be a good reason that Balanced Funds typically target approximately a 60/40 ratio (or at least do so on average). It may be that there is some explicit explanation based on risk-adjusted returns, but, if not, there may be...