Search found 395 matches

by DaufuskieNate
Sun Jul 19, 2020 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adaptive FireCalc to determine an annual withdraw rate?
Replies: 3
Views: 409

Re: Adaptive FireCalc to determine an annual withdraw rate?

Check out VPW. Pretty close to what you are thinking.
by DaufuskieNate
Wed Jul 15, 2020 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expectations of factor investing from a factor regression
Replies: 67
Views: 3563

Re: Expectations of factor investing from a factor regression

Hi, am I doing something wrong below? It sure feels like it. Say my equity portfolio consists of VT (total world), SLYV (US small value), DLS (Intl. SV) and MTUM (momentum). I am trying to figure out what percentages should I allocate to each to achieve a targeted portfolio loading of 0.2 and 0.4 f...
by DaufuskieNate
Sun Jul 12, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large Growth’s Outperformance Over Small Value
Replies: 4
Views: 400

Re: Large Growth’s Outperformance Over Small Value

I don't think that reversion to the mean is the argument here. In order to believe in reversion to the mean, you have to define what the mean is. And if you say that the mean is the true fair value, then why is the market is over or under valuing a stock relative to fair value? And why do you have b...
by DaufuskieNate
Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?
Replies: 172
Views: 18988

Re: Why [was] QSPIX steadily declining?

AQR does a quarterly attribution analysis, but it is not publicly available. It's only available to RIAs. So any friendly financial advisors want to share? Interesting - is this sort of opacity common? I don't mean to beat a dead horse. I'm curious what signals folks use to keep investing. I don't ...
by DaufuskieNate
Sat May 23, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer to peer lending in this day and age
Replies: 46
Views: 2875

Re: Peer to peer lending in this day and age

I think that COVID-related payment deferrals are making P2P loan portfolios look better than they really are at this point in time. It’s reasonable to assume that some of these deferred loans would have gone non-performing anyway. The longer unemployment stays high, the worse these portfolios will l...
by DaufuskieNate
Thu May 21, 2020 5:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China
Replies: 27
Views: 2334

Re: Emerging Market Stocks Funds too exposed to China

When comparing the emerging markets funds of Vanguard and DFA, it is important to remember that Vanguard includes Korea in DM while DFA includes it in EM. The DFA core EM fund DFCEX has about 14% in Korea and 30% in China. Without Korea, the DFA fund would have about 35% in China. This would be the ...
by DaufuskieNate
Thu May 14, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness on the Death of Value...Which Vanguard ETFs to Get?
Replies: 47
Views: 4094

Re: AQR/Asness on the Death of Value...Which Vanguard ETFs to Get?

deltaneutral83 wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 9:34 am
Where are you guys buying AVUV, merril edge does not allow it.
Schwab
by DaufuskieNate
Fri May 01, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There's a first time for everything [Elon Musk says share price too high]
Replies: 15
Views: 2031

Re: There's a first time for everything

Isn't that sort of thing illegal? Yes it is, and it's not the first time for that. There is no "free speech" when it comes to material information disseminated by CEO's. They are required to follow specific rules to ensure that all investors have a chance to receive the information at the same time...
by DaufuskieNate
Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Likelihood of size and value factor returns being positive in future
Replies: 89
Views: 2839

Re: Likelihood of size and value factor returns being positive in future

1. Sharpe ratio is not a good measure of risk adjusted return in multifactor models. However, in a single factor model or for a mean-variance investor, it is. We (=average investor) are not mean-variance investors. There are other risks we care about which is why CAPM failed. Sharpe ratio ignores a...
by DaufuskieNate
Thu Apr 16, 2020 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now
Replies: 128
Views: 13549

Re: Ray Dalio: ‘you’d be pretty crazy to hold bonds’ right now

If you buy bonds and interest rates rise, that's bad news. You face the choice of being stuck with a below-market yield or selling the bonds for a lower price than what you paid. Are you talking about bonds or bond funds? Because that statement is incorrect about bond funds. Bond funds are self-cor...
by DaufuskieNate
Fri Nov 29, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Erosion of credit quality in Total Bond
Replies: 32
Views: 2923

Re: Erosion of credit quality in Total Bond

It seems to me that it's not good that the composition will change over time with the supply of bonds. If the government runs high deficits, the government portion could go up. If corporations start to lever up, that portion may increase. Whichever sector is growing debt the fastest gets a higher sh...
by DaufuskieNate
Thu Nov 28, 2019 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To tilt or not to tilt, for amateurs?
Replies: 26
Views: 1603

Re: To tilt or not to tilt, for amateurs?

Should you invest in factors? Probably not in my opinion. I think most people don't have the temperament for it, or they don't understand it sufficiently to benefit from the research. Agreed. Successful tilters need the temperament to accept that their returns may not match common market benchmarks...
by DaufuskieNate
Thu Nov 21, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where does the money come from?
Replies: 54
Views: 7265

Re: Where does the money come from?

Tigermoose wrote:
Thu Nov 21, 2019 2:18 pm
.In order to drive up the price of all these financial and real estate assets, where is the money coming from?
The Fed.
by DaufuskieNate
Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BOSVX vs IJS for SCV Loading?
Replies: 55
Views: 2552

Re: BOSVX vs IJS for SCV Loading?

The trouble with taxable investing before you have a plan you can really stick with is that you get tax-trapped (via cap gains) into funds you wish you didn't have. I bet it's really common for BHer's to have a handful of zombies in their taxable accts. Very true. You should also love whatever fund...
by DaufuskieNate
Sun Oct 20, 2019 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Safe Withdrawal Rate in today’s low yield environment
Replies: 44
Views: 4331

Re: Safe Withdrawal Rate in today’s low yield environment

TheNightsToCome wrote:
Sun Oct 20, 2019 1:07 pm

If the PE10 was 6.6 and bonds paid 15% or so (i.e., early 80s conditions), then I'd feel very comfortable retiring now. Not sure if I'd actually do it, but financial concerns wouldn't affect the decision.
When inflation is running 12-14%, it changes everything. Especially for retirees.
by DaufuskieNate
Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing
Replies: 160
Views: 13941

Re: Vanguard: the case for global equity investing

David Althaus wrote:
Sat Oct 12, 2019 9:18 am
No value in making a 100 year wager but mine would be the US will outperform the rest of the world.
I wouldn’t bet against China.
by DaufuskieNate
Mon Sep 30, 2019 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When Value Is More Valuable
Replies: 76
Views: 6189

Re: When Value Is More Valuable

rkhusky wrote:
Mon Sep 30, 2019 6:22 am

So, there is really no good measure for value that doesn't include price?
If you think about it, this is true of anything we pay money for.
by DaufuskieNate
Fri Sep 13, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 20004

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

Even then, the definition of efficiency depends on a lot of assumptions and investors will no doubt have differing viewpoints on those assumptions. An efficient portfolio means that there is no other portfolio that achieves a higher return for a given level of risk over a given period of time. Retu...
by DaufuskieNate
Fri Sep 13, 2019 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing
Replies: 318
Views: 20004

Re: Explaining the Demise of Value Investing

I’ve been pondering this more. Assume the market prices only risk that is nondiversifiable. That certainly will occur for individual assets. Will the market price the assumption that we all create diversified portfolios? Maybe the answer is yes. But that means that practically by definition a Bogle...
by DaufuskieNate
Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 699
Views: 56942

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

What's his rationale? Not interested in listening. A post declaring one’s non-interest in listening to a shared podcast is novel, or perhaps odd, particularly since the respondent’s interest was piqued enough to ask a question about said podcast. Doesn't seem novel or odd to me. I much prefer readi...
by DaufuskieNate
Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 30324

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

Larry has an article on MarketWatch which says that we shouldn't throw in the towel on Warren Buffett just because his recent performance has lagged the S&P 500. He reminds us that Buffett believes that temperament is more important than intelligence in investing. Yes, value has lagged for 10 years....
by DaufuskieNate
Thu Aug 29, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Bill Bernstein: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest
Replies: 56
Views: 6405

Re: Dr. Bill Bernstein: Next "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast guest

Both Dr. Bernstein and Mr. Ferri have issued expected return forecasts in the past. What does the current environment hold for expected returns going forward and how should investors use, or not use, this information?
by DaufuskieNate
Wed Aug 28, 2019 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Importance of Simplicity"
Replies: 36
Views: 5354

Re: "The Importance of Simplicity"

“For the simplicity on this side of complexity, I wouldn't give you a fig. But for the simplicity on the other side of complexity, for that I would give you anything I have.”


― Oliver Wendell Holmes
by DaufuskieNate
Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 30324

Re: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]

Well, we've been mixing "exposure to SCV" with "exposure to the SCV factor." As part of this, some have argued that exposure to the SCV factor is over exposure to SCV. I don't know why this could become confusing. I'll just leave it at that..... :twisted: This post is very clear and understandable....
by DaufuskieNate
Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past Performance
Replies: 74
Views: 4402

Re: Past Performance

That's a valid point, but you can also say that DFA is not exactly a traditional index fund. You can argue it being passive or not, but for comparison it would be better to find a different "index." In my mind, Vanguard TSM is a "best-in-class" total U.S. stock market index fund. You could make the...
by DaufuskieNate
Sun Aug 18, 2019 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past Performance
Replies: 74
Views: 4402

Re: Past Performance

I learned long-ago (the hard way) the danger of using past performance to project future returns . Sadly, small cap funds have underperformed simple and cheap total U.S. stock market index fund for the past 10 years. Morningstar reports that during the last 5-years, total market index funds returne...
by DaufuskieNate
Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 254
Views: 24561

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

If one believes that an era of low and more predictable inflation is in our future — due to aging populations, slower economic growth and improved inflation targeting by central banks around the world — then it's not hard to imagine that low or negative interest rates may also be a persistent globa...
by DaufuskieNate
Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 254
Views: 24561

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

If the Fed cuts rates all the way back down to zero and restarts quantitative easing, negative yields on U.S. Treasuries could swiftly change from theory to reality. LOL! If a frog had wings, he wouldn't bump his booty. The current issue of The Economist lists the following 10-year government bonds...
by DaufuskieNate
Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 254
Views: 24561

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

There can be value in considering alternative futures that cause one to move off of a "stay the course" path. Of course, staying the course may be the best response to negative interest rates. I just wonder how many would have the mental fortitude to reinvest at negative rates. Negative rates could ...
by DaufuskieNate
Sun Aug 11, 2019 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 254
Views: 24561

Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

[Thread merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] Ran across this article today: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4284521-interest-rates-naturally-negative Here is the summary: "Summary It is no longer absurd to think that the nominal yield on U.S. Treasury securities could go negative. Along ...
by DaufuskieNate
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 29080

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Schooner - not trying to be a smart Alek here, but I don’t think I could have a strong opposing view on a topic where I considered myself a novice without answers to basic questions of logic. I'm a novice relative to Larry Swedroe. He is an investment profession with decades of experience. I have r...
by DaufuskieNate
Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why factor investing isn't working
Replies: 484
Views: 29080

Re: Why factor investing isn't working

Schooner - not trying to be a smart Alek here, but I don’t think I could have a strong opposing view on a topic where I considered myself a novice without answers to basic questions of logic.
by DaufuskieNate
Sat Jul 06, 2019 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle was right: smart beta ETFs are closet trackers (including Vanguard’s)
Replies: 21
Views: 3045

Re: Jack Bogle was right: smart beta ETFs are closet trackers (including Vanguard’s)

Are these the same value and small cap value funds that have taken so much abuse lately for under-performing TSM? So which is it? Are these funds guilty of deviating from TSM and inflicting the dreaded "tracking error" on unsuspecting investors, or are they really just closet indexes? It would actua...
by DaufuskieNate
Sat Jul 06, 2019 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Relative Importance Of Factor Investing
Replies: 15
Views: 1168

Re: Relative Importance Of Factor Investing

Surely you don't actually believe you can't diversify among different economic growth or demographic risks or political risks? That's practically the essence of the argument for international diversification. This is an important point. To build off of it, the effects of macro factors express thems...
by DaufuskieNate
Wed Jul 03, 2019 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Alice's Adventures in Factorland"
Replies: 209
Views: 12126

Re: "Alice's Adventures in Factorland"

Disclaimer: I didn't read all of the posts in that exchange but I believe Taylor is probably trying to make the point of the importance of "staying the course" on TSM or 3-fund. Yah, you should probably read the posts. OP is announcing the superiority of 3-fund and telling everyone on the factor si...
by DaufuskieNate
Mon Jul 01, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)
Replies: 37
Views: 3075

Re: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)

Here is a simplified example that may illuminate the issue. Suppose you are comparing 2 investments that mature in one year. The coupon and principal on both are paid at maturity. Investment A: Issued at par with a coupon of 3%. Investment B: Issued at 104 with a coupon of 6%. You put $104 into eac...
by DaufuskieNate
Mon Jul 01, 2019 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)
Replies: 37
Views: 3075

Re: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)

Here is a simplified example that may illuminate the issue. Suppose you are comparing 2 investments that mature in one year. The coupon and principal on both are paid at maturity. Investment A: Issued at par with a coupon of 3%. Investment B: Issued at 104 with a coupon of 6%. You put $104 into each...
by DaufuskieNate
Mon Jul 01, 2019 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)
Replies: 37
Views: 3075

Re: Why isn't the distribution yield a valuable number? (for VWIUX)

Just to be perfectly clear. Comparing the payout, or distribution yield, of muni bonds that are typically issued at a premium directly to the yield of a CD, or other fixed income investment, issued at par is comparing apples to oranges. It will lead to faulty logic in decision making.
by DaufuskieNate
Sat Jun 29, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Alice's Adventures in Factorland"
Replies: 209
Views: 12126

Re: Past Performance?

The three fund portfolio simply works and is effective for many investors who will stick with it in both good and bad markets. This is key. A distinction shared by most any reasonably well-designed portfolio. The very premise of the OP's original post is that one should be persuaded by a 5-year run...
by DaufuskieNate
Fri Jun 28, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Alice's Adventures in Factorland"
Replies: 209
Views: 12126

Re: "Alice's Adventures in Factorland"

Total Stock Market (TSM) indexing is not a strategy for beating the market, it is the market -- the thing all the strategies are trying to beat. Personally, I'm not trying to beat TSM in my portfolio strategy. I'm trying to earn a return that meets my personal long term needs with a risk level that...
by DaufuskieNate
Wed Jun 26, 2019 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: How Trading Costs Erode Factor Returns
Replies: 43
Views: 4759

Re: Turnover of Factor Funds?

According to Factor Research, this is the average annual turnover of various factor funds: Value 298% Size 156% Momentum 704% Low Volatility 230% Quality 192% Growth 253% Dividend Yield 97% Multi-factor 400% Best wishes. Taylor Not true. I put the words "factor funds" in bold because this is simply...
by DaufuskieNate
Sat Jun 22, 2019 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Curse Of Popularity
Replies: 29
Views: 3675

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Curse Of Popularity

Dave - Your explanation of long only funds makes a lot of sense. Thanks.

Nate
by DaufuskieNate
Sat Jun 22, 2019 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Curse Of Popularity
Replies: 29
Views: 3675

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Curse Of Popularity

Are you asking why, if SCV is diversified across 3 factors why isn’t it less volatile than TSM which has no net factor exposure? If that is your question, I think the answer is that size and value represent risk factors which implies higher volatility. But they also represent higher expected return...
by DaufuskieNate
Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Curse Of Popularity
Replies: 29
Views: 3675

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Curse Of Popularity

Dave,
I can fully appreciate the lack of correlation between these sources of return. One question I have had in this regard is why this does not reduce the volatility of an asset class like SCV. In other examples of diversification, this would be the expected result. What am I missing?
by DaufuskieNate
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018
Replies: 121
Views: 8432

Re: Exploring SCV diversification with Morningstar category averages, 1968-2018

...by the way, Ken French has removed the back-to-1926 "historical benchmark returns" from his "data library" website. To those in the know, what is the best source of pre-1980s data on SCV now that Ken French disavowed his own data? Do you have any background on this? I couldn't find anything on h...
by DaufuskieNate
Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 113
Views: 12875

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

You joined here 8 months ago and had to have seen numerous posts discussing international markets over this time. Your question will probably receive a torrent of replies with opinions all over the map. You don't need to wait to see these...just look at some recent threads on this issue. You clearly...
by DaufuskieNate
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 64
Views: 5349

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

I had a few hundred dollars in cash in my rollover IRA account so I just purchased 6 shares of IJS, the iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Index ETF, adding to that position. Seeing that I, in jest, put a "buy" recommendation on US Large-Cap Value, US Mid-Cap Value, and US Small-Cap Value; I decided t...
by DaufuskieNate
Mon Jun 17, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.
Replies: 64
Views: 5349

Re: Larry Swedroe: Has The Value Trade Become Overcrowded.

I had a few hundred dollars in cash in my rollover IRA account so I just purchased 6 shares of IJS, the iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value Index ETF, adding to that position. Seeing that I, in jest, put a "buy" recommendation on US Large-Cap Value, US Mid-Cap Value, and US Small-Cap Value; I decided t...