Search found 1719 matches

by retired at 48
Sun Jan 11, 2009 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: R48’s Final Post: Thank You, And Good Luck Bogleheads
Replies: 111
Views: 24301

kittychaos two posts

removed - violation of forum policy for openly questioning the moderation of the forum Returning from an evening out, I was surprised to find my (adult) middle daughter having made two (unsolicited by me) posts. Jennifer, thank you. I will cherish this, always. I called her and inquired about the s...
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 09, 2009 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: R48’s Final Post: Thank You, And Good Luck Bogleheads
Replies: 111
Views: 24301

R48’s Final Post: Thank You, And Good Luck Bogleheads

The purpose of this posting is to state that I am withdrawing from posting on the Boglehead Forum. As background, I started posting about a year ago, electing to write an outline of my financial life history, in a post entitled “First Time Posters IRA @ $1,000,000: Shares Wisdom Learned”. I was over...
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 09, 2009 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retired at 48 explains: momentum tilt to portfolios
Replies: 3
Views: 2040

Retired at 48 explains: momentum tilt to portfolios

To me, I define myself as a Boglehead with four twists. First, I incorporate a " valuations matter " approach, particularly when markets are hitting new highs. Second, I use 200 day moving averages as guidance to adding or taking some off the table. In this regard, in second quarter ‘08 I reduced a ...
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 09, 2009 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking a back-testing paper
Replies: 384
Views: 53406

Getting fun, huh, Speedie.

WorldBeta, thanks for posting.

R48
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 09, 2009 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow loses 12 Years; Rip Van Winkle Effect
Replies: 28
Views: 5407

EDM wrote: so often predicted by the "sort-side pundits" I think you meant "short-side", thus you have broken your posting streak of "no literary (I take to include typing) errors. :!: :lol: You have posted essentially to ponder the predictions of where the market is heading, but most on this forum ...
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 09, 2009 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow loses 12 Years; Rip Van Winkle Effect
Replies: 28
Views: 5407

If the markets do return to their peak, even 80 months later, the benefit could come to those investing regularly through their retirement plans, capturing lower prices on a regular basis. Yes, vb. I accumulated for 15 years in a flat market, Dow Average at 1000 in 1966 to 1000 in 1981, but still c...
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 09, 2009 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is a loss a loss -- with a twist
Replies: 28
Views: 3922

Hi mikemcc

tfb above gives a link where your very question was discussed in detail.

And Here's a link for an alternative on when to inject that lump sum back into a bear market:

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... vii+photos

Good luck.

R48
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 09, 2009 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking a back-testing paper
Replies: 384
Views: 53406

Re: Sampling Data Monthly

Hemispheres wrote:
What about changing from a binary buy/sell output to a percentage buy/sell output. IOW, instead of jumping in and out, shift an increasing amount of assets as the output buy/sell signal gets stronger.
Careful, I have a patent pending on The Pyramid Up Technique. :lol:

R48
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 09, 2009 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1194
Views: 423191

Wow, Speedie I reorganized your results,summarized as follows: Speedie backtested the actual Fama-French market data, from 1 Jan 1928 to 30 Nov 2008, using an 80/20% (bonds) portfolio, and got the following results: ......................15mo/MA ......Buy/Hold.......B/H w/year end rebalancing CAGR....
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 09, 2009 1:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Son of BCS
Replies: 367
Views: 48664

PS Not a bad prediction, Retired at 48, but I'd have been even more impressed had you fingered Utah way back when :) That would be miss congeniality award :!: . The contest was to pick the BCS Champ. I do feel for Utah, though...they looked good. BTW This son of thread was preceeded by a BCS thread...
by retired at 48
Thu Jan 08, 2009 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Son of BCS
Replies: 367
Views: 48664

Just a reminder folks. Take a Penn State Boglehead, add four twists: a little momentum, a good 200 day moving average, a close look at valuations, and Pyramid it all Up, and ole retired at 48 selected, at the beginning of the year: UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA ...to win the BCS :!: :twisted: :roll: :lol: R...
by retired at 48
Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1194
Views: 423191

200 MA backtesting

Speedie just did some additional backtesting on the "Debunking" thread, that I feel should be presented here, for completeness. Here is what I posted as a summary: Wow, Speedie I reorganized your results,summarized as follows: Speedie backtested the actual Fama-French market data, from 1 Jan 1928 t...
by retired at 48
Thu Jan 08, 2009 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow loses 12 Years; Rip Van Winkle Effect
Replies: 28
Views: 5407

Hi EDM...and welcome as a newer poster.

I found your post well-done and insightful. Respectful of the readers, even to having no literary errors(that I detected).

FWIW I will make sure I read your posts in the future.

R48
by retired at 48
Thu Jan 08, 2009 6:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Son of BCS
Replies: 367
Views: 48664

Re: Son of BCS

I'm referring to Richt's stoic, undemonstrative persona. He's a great coach, a great offensive strategist, and a man of character. As I said, I'm pulling for FL , as a don't have a dog in the fight. I guess the excessive celebration still rattles a lot of people. We had a coach like that, from the ...
by retired at 48
Thu Jan 08, 2009 4:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiring and looking for perfect spot
Replies: 97
Views: 16849

R48 you hit it right. What to do all day is the biggest issue when picking a place to live in retirement plus medical needs and kids close enough. Bill.. And I fully agree with your other two points. We are struggling a little with "kids close enough." We've committed to more travel to be close, mo...
by retired at 48
Thu Jan 08, 2009 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking a back-testing paper
Replies: 384
Views: 53406

200 MA

Wow, Speedie I reorganized your results,summarized as follows: Speedie backtested the actual Fama-French market data, from 1 Jan 1928 to 30 Nov 2008, using an 80/20% (bonds) portfolio, and got the following results: ......................15mo/MA ......Buy/Hold.......B/H w/year end rebalancing CAGR....
by retired at 48
Thu Jan 08, 2009 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1194
Views: 423191

200 MA

Market timers historically only profit from crashes every 20 years or so. It looks like our times are a rare period where they will have two greatly profitable events within less than 10 years. So if a buy-and-holder starts market timing now , it would seem the odds are against him. It would seem t...
by retired at 48
Thu Jan 08, 2009 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Son of BCS
Replies: 367
Views: 48664

bcs

Penn State again had the highest graduation rate among all the schools playing in BCS games. PSU gained 410 yards against the USC #1 rated defense, doubling the average yards against. PSU lead baton twirler won the National Championship for same. OH, forget about the above; the only thing that coun...
by retired at 48
Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking a back-testing paper
Replies: 384
Views: 53406

I define a round trip as a pair of buy/sell signals i.e. one complete trade. In at X out at Y with (Y - X) determining a winning or losing trade. Monthly data will greatly reduce whipsaws while seemingly doing very little harm to overall returns. For grins, here's a pure 200 day SMA which produced ...
by retired at 48
Thu Jan 08, 2009 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking a back-testing paper
Replies: 384
Views: 53406

200 MA

Speedie, Can you provide the proper context? That is, if you buy and hold with a comparable stock bond portfolio what are the various values? Say a 70/30 portfolio? Hi Rod Is it not true that if one adds 30% bonds to B/H, you have to add 30% bonds to MA portfolios, to do backtesting? Most of us hav...
by retired at 48
Thu Jan 08, 2009 2:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1194
Views: 423191

Market timers historically only profit from crashes every 20 years or so. It looks like our times are a rare period where they will have two greatly profitable events within less than 10 years. So if a buy-and-holder starts market timing now , it would seem the odds are against him. It would seem t...
by retired at 48
Wed Jan 07, 2009 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Son of BCS
Replies: 367
Views: 48664

Re: Son of BCS

Comparing the head coaches, I really like the intensity of both Meyers and Stoops....wish our guy Richt showed more fire-in-the-belly at times. Hi Bulldawg I'm not sure I understand this? Isn't this the same Coach Richt who had is team take a planned personal foul celebration type penalty to show a...
by retired at 48
Wed Jan 07, 2009 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Son of BCS
Replies: 367
Views: 48664

Re: Son of BCS

Comparing the head coaches, I really like the intensity of both Meyers and Stoops....wish our guy Richt showed more fire-in-the-belly at times. Hi Bulldawg I'm not sure I understand this? Isn't this the same Coach Richt who had is team take a planned personal foul celebration type penalty to show a...
by retired at 48
Wed Jan 07, 2009 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1194
Views: 423191

200 MA Disclaimer

I think it's time for disclaimers. On another "timing" thread, a Boglehead raised the question that this thread has brought out posters, some new, who perhaps have a vested interest in the subject of Market Timing. That is, perhaps they have websites or other business interests which may benefit fro...
by retired at 48
Wed Jan 07, 2009 3:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: For retirees, when did you achieve financial independence?
Replies: 4
Views: 1399

Retiring early

Actual: Age 48

Realized by me: Age 58

Realized by my wife: Age 62. When we started drawing social security, she took the sign down in our bedroom that read: Nothing is worse than outliving your money :!:

retired at 48
by retired at 48
Wed Jan 07, 2009 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiring and looking for perfect spot
Replies: 97
Views: 16849

Hi jumbojet8 Yes, spent time in panhandle. To my wife and I, the overriding concerns for us were: Weather ...the jet streams come in from the north and west. South Florida gets its weather from the tropical climates. Much warmer winters. (We are a two home situation.) Nothing to do ! Of course, some...
by retired at 48
Wed Jan 07, 2009 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1194
Views: 423191

200 Moving Average

Mitigating Risks: Moving Averages, or More Bonds? We have now seen that a variety of backtesting, some by Bogleheads, show that Moving Average Investing reduces risk to portfolios, if followed. The counter argument is that investors can simply increase their fixed income, bond allocation to mitigat...
by retired at 48
Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking a back-testing paper
Replies: 384
Views: 53406

Re: Any Theoretical Basis for SMA Market Timing?

Summary of results: 1. SMA does not work if the data is a random walk, either with or without growth. 2. With higher volatility, SMA performance rapidly deterioriates. 3. The stronger the momentum, the better SMA does 4. The stronger mean reversion, the worse SMA does Hi Greyfox Regarding point #1 ...
by retired at 48
Sun Jan 04, 2009 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 200-day moving average market timing
Replies: 1194
Views: 423191

Some comments on "Investing Experts." Occasionally during this thread it has been suggested that certain investment guru's have not endorsed any market timing, encouraging always the "boglehead way". It was even posted: could I request that before we spend too much more time discussing your market ...
by retired at 48
Sun Jan 04, 2009 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Predicting Investor Discipline
Replies: 24
Views: 3256

Re: Predicting Investor Discipline

Is the commonly held viewpoint on the above factors even true? I would love to hear any academic studies on this topic and anecdotal/experiential commments. Blue Jason Zweig just had an article in the WSJ showing so-called experts (aka Jack Bogle) who do not always follow their advice. One notable,...
by retired at 48
Sun Jan 04, 2009 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Huge Risk, Exceptional Return?
Replies: 35
Views: 6558

young aggressive investor

Hi IceNomad I saw a sign on a church once that said: If you're tired of sin, come in. Below it someone had written: If not, call 4562287! First, you state you "have the ability to take risks" because of low dollar amount. No...I feel at age 19 one must conclude you may not have the ability yet, due ...
by retired at 48
Sun Jan 04, 2009 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multigeneration family investment planning?
Replies: 32
Views: 5923

I do multifamily generational investment planning, continuously. Here are some tidbit features: I funded, and still manage, my children's IRA's, starting at their age 12 (now about age 37 adults). I consider their IRA as part of MY Asset Allocation Plan, as they realize my wife and I would use this ...
by retired at 48
Sun Jan 04, 2009 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Maximum Tolerable Loss" -- Not just a fear factor
Replies: 553
Views: 116774

Am I the only one who has noticed that greyfox has made a lot of great posts on the forum recently?

His latest, the table of losses, gain needed, and years to recovery, for a 4% SWR. A sobering, useful table.

Thanks, greyman.

R48
by retired at 48
Sun Jan 04, 2009 2:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Boglehead Hedge Fund Contest
Replies: 114
Views: 22214

hedge contest

PYRAMID UP MOVING AVERAGE VALUATION MOMENTUM HEDGE FUND


Long: THC .... Tenet Healthcare


Short: SPG.... Simon Property Group


retired at 48
by retired at 48
Sun Jan 04, 2009 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HELOC Question
Replies: 16
Views: 3559

Hi Wellesley I generally endorse what Auream said above, and would add the following: It partly depends on the makeup and allocation of your other investments. Here's why. The risk you face is the Fed raises rates such that the HELOC loan rate rises above the 5.65% mortgage rate. For this to happen,...
by retired at 48
Sat Jan 03, 2009 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Year End Return Thread
Replies: 100
Views: 17096

Hi deerhunter...welcome, and interesting first post.

Do you have a pension and Social Security? Do you require some part of your savings, annually, to live off of?

R48
(aka Pennsylvania deerhunter) :!:
by retired at 48
Sat Jan 03, 2009 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Son of BCS
Replies: 367
Views: 48664

wbond wrote:R48,

Thank you for the kind words. I agree with your analysis of the flaws in bowl records (it is all imperfect, afterall).

For your benefit, I should add: Penn State has had 309 NFL players (compare to above).
big oversight :!: But you are forgiven 8)

R48
by retired at 48
Sat Jan 03, 2009 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Back in 2000
Replies: 62
Views: 8208

Re: swr's

This also emphasizes why annutization needs to be emphasized in retirement planning, a concept that has gotten more attention in the retirement planning literature. For me, the near failure of AIG on 9/15 drove home the huge issue our country has with annuitization. I think the vast majority of ret...
by retired at 48
Sat Jan 03, 2009 12:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Son of BCS
Replies: 367
Views: 48664

Hi wbond I like your analysis, noting that when Penn State had the nations best teams in early Paterno days, we had the most players in the NFL. Also, an undefeated PSU, voted second to Texas, had 13 players later play pro football, Texas had one, who lasted a year. Bowl match ups prohibited them fr...
by retired at 48
Sat Jan 03, 2009 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Son of BCS
Replies: 367
Views: 48664

The various prides of Nittany Lions are returning from California to, ugh, snow country...they had a great time except for one thing. Congrats to USC and (Emergdoc's pick) Utah. Picking the best teams in college football is easy. Use Scout.com or Rivals.com, look up the high school recruit rankings ...
by retired at 48
Sat Jan 03, 2009 2:03 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Much higher education is a scam
Replies: 99
Views: 17455

I agree that college is too expensive and shouldn't be required of everyone. But doesn't anyone here think that he or she lives a richer life and might be a better citizen for having studied history, literature, the natural sciences, philosophy, rhetoric, and art? Has the idea of a liberal educatio...
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 02, 2009 11:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiring and looking for perfect spot
Replies: 97
Views: 16849

I'd give Florida serious consideration - lowish cost of living, no state tax, great weather, quick flights to anywhere (except Asia). Nick Nick and other Floridians, What areas of Florida do you consider to be the "best"? Thank you, JJ Interesting not much mention of Florida. Perhaps it would appea...
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 02, 2009 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiring and looking for perfect spot
Replies: 97
Views: 16849

marie17 wrote:if i had the money i would live on st. john in the usvi.
Hmmm. Nice pick. My oldest daughter lived there, on a 36 foot sailboat, as home base, in front of the Weston Hotel, for three years. She sailed with eventual husband all over the Caribbean.

R48
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 02, 2009 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it often said that bull market started in 1982?
Replies: 20
Views: 3070

Re: Why is it often said that bull market started in 1982?

Well, until you mentioned it I'd never heard that 1982 was regarded as the start of a bull market. And I agree, I find that to be astonishing. Off the top of my head, I'd have said the bull market pretty much coincided with "the Nineties." Perhaps it's the effect of small numbers and the log versus...
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 02, 2009 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations Matter! Yeah, but how much?
Replies: 34
Views: 4668

R48 Actually I mentioned you in the first paragraph as a representative of those who use quant methods based upon valuations. As I understand it all your twists involve valuations. The purpose of the thread was to make the point that, although valuations do matter and are important, there are two o...
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 02, 2009 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Back in 2000
Replies: 62
Views: 8208

If this person had not bought into the ideas of modern finance, such as: price does not matter, dividends do not matter, substitute cash for bonds and put more in equities, etc. and simply bought a stodgy, old fashioned balanced fund (Wellington), they'd be doing much better (if my calculations are...
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 02, 2009 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Back in 2000
Replies: 62
Views: 8208

Re: swr's

Hmmm. Factors backtesters can't measure. Is there a chart of total annual number of retirees versus market highs/lows? retired at 48 Yes, there is a chart. Seems there is little evidence of an effect: http://www.nber.org/aginghealth/fall04/w10779.html Thanks...yes, but I suspect many of those folks...
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 02, 2009 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWR Back in 2000
Replies: 62
Views: 8208

swr's

Whew! Every time I read these studies I think I should go back 15 years and keep working, instead of retiring. I intuitively sensed all that is being discussed above, but now later in life I have a better appreciation of the numbers, risks and potential outcomes. Glad my wife didn't know the numbers...
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 02, 2009 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is it often said that bull market started in 1982?
Replies: 20
Views: 3070

Because people, in real time, tend to look backward at where the market was, to form conclusions. I experienced the time period when in about 1966 the Dow Average hit 1000. It didn't cross this and go up until the early 1980's. So, this 16 year flat period was met with a sigh of relief that the Dow ...
by retired at 48
Fri Jan 02, 2009 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2009 IRA contribution: Jan 1, DCA, or market time?
Replies: 29
Views: 5191

Ron...great! And thanks, to you, for your service to our country. R48