Search found 95 matches

by conlius
Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term Treasuries killing it!
Replies: 20
Views: 2710

Re: Long-term Treasuries killing it!

ruud wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:10 pm
justsomeguy2018 wrote: Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:02 pm If yields weren't already so low
The performance was exactly because yields have fallen over that period.

Not sure I believe this. If bond rates didn’t fall and you held them for 40 years you would have received income equal to the coupon which was in excess of the return of the market as a whole. Bond yields falling from extreme highs really only helps you if you are holding for a duration that is shorter than the duration of the bond/fund. If I picked up long term bonds 40+ years ago I would be happy with my annual income of 12%+ per year if it stayed at that level. Granted, we don’t know where the market would be if rates stayed that high.
by conlius
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?
Replies: 258
Views: 27206

Re: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?

Wife can cut my hair in a pinch but she can really only use the trimmers. Will start with a 5/6 on the top and work her way down as she gets to the sides and try to blend it all in. It’s fine once you get past the first couple tries. That first one was pretty rough.
by conlius
Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pick one: $135,000 rental property or $110,000 in REITs
Replies: 89
Views: 14932

Re: Pick one: $135,000 rental property or $110,000 in REITs

The significantly higher risk of holding a single asset should show significantly higher rewards or it just doesn’t make sense to me. If the house is paid off I’d either sell and buy VNQ to reduce risk or go all in and leverage up to a larger house so long as the additional borrowed money would bring in an adequately higher income for you.
by conlius
Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Rebalancing, Annual vs on New Cash Inputs
Replies: 4
Views: 671

Re: Understanding Rebalancing, Annual vs on New Cash Inputs

Rebalancing with regular deposits seems like a logical thing to do. You are naturally buying the most depressed assets. Eventually the portfolio will become large enough that new cash probably won’t keep up with rebalancing needs and you will have to do a combination of both new money and annual adjustments.
by conlius
Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finished?
Replies: 129
Views: 16690

Re: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finis

A asset's price is its discounted free cash flow. Dividends, interest payments, rents, etc. It is tied to economically productive assets. The theory on this is solid. So investing. Bitcoin, gold, Benie Babies, collectoable cars, etc. don't have any cash flows. Their value is based on what somebody else will pay for it in the futures, where that person buys it based on what somebody else will buy in the future. Etc. The greater fool theory. This is where the pyramid idea comes into play. In order for the value to go up the next round of investors needs to be bigger than the current. These systems tend to be less stable. It is speculation. Isn't this not the case with proof of stake coins? Proof of stake, from what I understand, is essential...
by conlius
Sat Feb 03, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 716
Views: 177092

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Yes, it is a good fund. However... You have been looking at historic performance. The problem with this is that it includes a very long bull market in bonds. However, interest rates are now low, and while they may or may not go up from here, they certainly cannot repeat the results from 1980 to 2016. Rates cannot drop another 18% from here. Accordingly, if the S&P 500 provides typical or average performance going forward, Wellesley will not be able to keep up; not even close. A lot of people reference the bond bull market for performance here. Given the duration of time that has passed, the fund would have done significantly better if rates didn't drop at all. Bond rates dropping are good for short-term gains if the duration is interme...
by conlius
Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trex Decking Without Fascia
Replies: 27
Views: 5666

Re: Trex Decking Without Fascia

My trex 30x10 back porch, with 4 stairs plus my front landing with 6 stairs and all the railings was just shy of 6k worth of materials. That's with an in-law buying the materials at contractor prices and him not taking a cut. I then paid a couple of his guys two days at his cost to rebuild. Total cost was somewhere between 7-8k and I had some leftover materials. Figure in the contractor getting paid and 9k doesn't sound that horrible to me. Just my 2 cents.
by conlius
Sun Jan 21, 2018 4:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Humidifier input please
Replies: 48
Views: 7409

Re: Home Humidifier input please

I have one being installed this week on my furnace. We went with the true spray humidifier with an RO unit in front of it. My HVAC guy told me pad ones can promote mold growth that you end up breathing. The spray system has problems with mineral buildup which is why the RO is going in front of it and requires cleaning once a year.
by conlius
Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?
Replies: 166
Views: 27618

Re: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?

The Wizard wrote:
tibbitts wrote: Isn't the market is up something like 5% nominal annually over the last 17 years? Probably closer to unprecedented on the downside than upside.
That's not what we're talking about.
S&P500 is up 11% YTD.
Total international is up 17% YTD.
I've been rebalancing incrementally in retirement to keep my stock percentage under control...[/quote

If my memory is correct, Dev/EM tanked for much of last year though, right? 17% this year isn't huge considering last year...though I don't know what 2016 returns looked like by end of calendar. I think high yield bonds had a good fall too followed by solid returns.
by conlius
Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% Cash, 50% Stocks: The Opportunistic Portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 9730

Re: 50% Cash, 50% Stocks: The Opportunistic Portfolio

50% cash will probably just make you less rich.

I assume there are many people here that could take a 50% haircut today and still be above where they would be if they had just held cash.
by conlius
Mon May 08, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 81
Views: 17356

Re: WHy Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

Why has the 60%/40% asset allocation worked so well? The 35 year bond bull market that started in 1982. The 30 year Treasury bond yielded 14% in February 1982. Today it yields 3.02%. I don't think 30 year Treasury bond yield will fall 78% (14% to 3% from 1982 to 2017) over the next 30-35 years. The 30 year Treasury bond would have to fall to .66% over the next 30-35 years to get the same bond "bump" in your 60%/40% asset allocation. bill I get what you are saying but...if rates stayed at 14% the bond portion would have returned 14%. The 78% drop in interest rates AKA the "bond bull market" reduced the long term total return of bond funds as they aged and new inflated / lower rate securities were purchased. Forward looki...
by conlius
Mon May 08, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 27991

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

Throwing a bit extra at financial independence is usually not that noticeable to a lifestyle but it can do wonders for your future. Find the balance...Then hope that current you never regrets the decisions of past you.
by conlius
Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System
Replies: 77
Views: 17678

Re: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System

Buckets seem difficult to manage. Between his/her 401k, his/her roth IRA, his/her traditional IRA, HSAs, etc plus income coming from pensions/social security/annuities. Basically you are building logical buckets across multiple accounts. I think it can be made much easier. Example 1mil portfolio. Need 40k per year from your portfolio after other income sources. Keep 10 years in lower-risk assets. OK: 400k bonds, 600k stocks. Make it 8/32/60 if you are stuck on the cash thing. Re-balance annually (via gains, dividends, etc) to maintain 10x needs in securities. When things get tough in the stock market, lower your expenses and draw from bonds. When things get good, rebalance appropriately and spend more? That took 30 seconds for a KISS soluti...
by conlius
Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why did my fund GO UP so much?
Replies: 33
Views: 4525

Re: Why did my fund GO UP so much?

Was there a split or reverse split? I have had a brokerage do something funky like that where they re-calculated the share count but not the price (or vice versa, can't remember).
by conlius
Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adults trip in May to Zion and Bryce National Parks
Replies: 21
Views: 3330

Re: Adults trip in May to Zion and Bryce National Parks

I used to go there all the time when I lived out in that area. If you want to see thousands of elk, drive the road at the top part of Zion as the sun comes up. Also, stop at the Buffalo ranch and get a buffalo burger! You can also catch big horn rams at the top part of Zion.

Bryce is more of a stop and stare type of visit unless you do the tour of the bottom part of the canyon.
by conlius
Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CEFs beat Vanguard
Replies: 9
Views: 2299

Re: CEFs beat Vanguard

The first one I looked at that beat VTI for 3 years was DNP which is classified as a utilities fund. So this is definitely not something to pay too much attention to as it is not an accurate comparison.
by conlius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Rebalance
Replies: 7
Views: 1247

Re: TIAA Rebalance

alright, thanks for all the feedback everyone! I'll continue doing research and call them. They certainly didn't make this simple!
by conlius
Thu Feb 23, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Rebalance
Replies: 7
Views: 1247

TIAA Rebalance

I just looked at my parents TIAA-CREF account. They are 63/64 and plan to retire in a couple years. I noticed that the accounts are ~70% in a combination of CREF Stock, Growth and Global Equity. They indicated that they wanted to "take some stock gains off the table" and asked me to look at it. The account has 2 companies attached to it with 6 sub accounts. One company contract has a RA, GRA and GSRA. The other company has an RA, RP and RC. When I look to rebalance the RA/GRA/GSRA, I can only pick between CREF Stock and Guaranteed (which have the 3% guarantee and each have specific additional percentages). When I look to rebalance the RA, RP and RC they have several fund options including bonds, inflation indexed, retire 20xx, gua...
by conlius
Mon Feb 20, 2017 2:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 11306

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

The last 10 years is one example why I would keep some bonds. Entering the market in 2007 with 100% equities vs a 65/35 portfolio (like wellington for example) would put you in about the same place today with your portfolio but the max draw down was worse with all equities. Hell, S&P 500 didn't really come back to match intermediate investment grade until ~2014 from the 2008 fall (if you entered in 2007). Add to that losing a job during a market crash and you have a recipe for disaster. You really just have to determine your own risk/reward comfort level. I put the money I want to keep pretty safe in bonds and hope for mediocre returns while the equity side tries to go out there and hustle for more money! This is why I stick to treasuri...
by conlius
Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 4119

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

I was comfortable with 100/0 in the beginning. Life has changed. The amount of money in the pool has increased significantlly, I got married and my wife is more financially conservative, purchased a house, etc. Things change and your tolerance to risk can change. Just make sure you go at it with as much logic as possible. I slowly moved my AA more toward a 70/30 and removed a lot of the riskier assets as well. Wanted to keep the spikes a bit lower to keep my wife from freaking out :)
by conlius
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?
Replies: 51
Views: 12799

Re: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?

Some people believe that rates will continue to fall and stay low long term. Some people believe the only rate hikes in intermediate future will be so they can be dropped again if the economy has issues. It depends on your view.

In BND, you are still buying long term bonds. There are just enough short/intermediate to keep the duration down. Bonds are typically used for preservation of capital so it is probably not a terrible idea to diversify across the classes and duration spectrum in order to protect against multiple outcomes (short, intermediate, long, tips, corporates, treasuries, internationals, etc).
by conlius
Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vti as high yield looooong term cd
Replies: 16
Views: 2196

Re: Vti as high yield looooong term cd

If going this route you could also just buy low cost dividend oriented funds (vym for example) and build a globally diversified portfolio out of the that plus international value/dividend funds and get higher dividends but probably not as high growth. However, yields are super low right either way.
by conlius
Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: HSA- how much do you actually invest?
Replies: 42
Views: 7047

Re: HSA- how much do you actually invest?

Invest everything. I have to have a minimum cash balance of like 1k to invest. Everything over that cash minimum goes directly into the investment portion which has a combo of stocks and bonds. If your company has incentives, it's really easy to get a good chunk of change in there, especially if they offer incentives for a spouse.
by conlius
Wed Apr 20, 2016 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to park money for the medium term?
Replies: 13
Views: 1814

Re: Where to park money for the medium term?

dumbttt wrote:Isn't it better to put money in I Bonds then? The highest yielding CD I can find now is 1.67% with Eloan.com. All other CDs yield 1.6%. I Bonds yield 1.64% and is exempt from State tax, hence 1.722% effective in my state.
From what I understand, the rate is about to drop significantly. I think the variable is at like .16% and only has the month of April to increase. Also, what everyone else said...
by conlius
Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Series EE bonds as holder for emergency funds
Replies: 9
Views: 2173

Re: Series EE bonds as holder for emergency funds

I would say i-bonds for emergency fund if anything since there is less of a withdrawal penalty (none after 5 years) and your purchasing power on that lump of rotting cash will at least try to keep up with inflation. However, I would much rather keep my EF in a combination of high-yield savings and short-term investment grade. Short-term bonds are said to keep up with inflation pretty well.

If you have the money, still buy the i-bonds and EE bonds though :D
by conlius
Mon Apr 18, 2016 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: mortgage pre payment, why?
Replies: 103
Views: 17684

Re: mortgage pre payment, why?

I've never understood the extreme comparisons for invest vs pay down mortgage. We have no idea what market returns, inflation/defaltion, future rates, or tax laws surrounding mortgage interest are going to be in the future. So why not just do a bit of both? Figure your excess money after 401k/IRA/HSA/EF/expenses. Take a chunk of that amount and put it into your mortgage (find a % that works for you). Take another chunk and put it in your taxable investment portfolio (again, find another % that works for you). Take the leftover and either continue to put it into your mortgage/portfolio or put it toward vacation/hobbies/projects/etc. Eventually, you will have both a well-funded taxable portfolio on top of your fully funded 401k/IRA/HSA/EF and...
by conlius
Tue Apr 12, 2016 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clink Investing App with Access to 6 Vanguard Funds
Replies: 10
Views: 4330

Re: Clink Investing App with Access to 6 Vanguard Funds

4th and Inches wrote:^^^^How is that much different than buying different shares (some of them fractional) across your 401k portfolio, Roth IRA, or taxable account on a bi-weekly basis as your paychecks come in? It is just a different scale.
Probably talking about tax lots. If you set it to save on every CC transaction like acorns, you can end up with a huge number of tax lots. If you sell or the company goes down, it might be a large amount of work...especially if you hold any of the same shared in another taxable account and attempt to tax loss harvest.
by conlius
Thu Mar 31, 2016 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One 360 New Money Market Account, 1% on over 10k
Replies: 101
Views: 32142

Re: Capital One 360 New Money Market Account, 1% on over 10k

Thank you for the heads-up! I just moved some money there last night. Question - does anyone know how to get this account to show up on Mint? I refreshed my Mint accounts this morning after creating the Money Market account, but it won't sync. It only shows my current checking and savings accounts. Having the same issue, but being that it's Mint. I'm far from shocked. I always encounter account issues any time there's the slightest change. I typically give it a few days and if still no dice, delete the account and re-add it. I can't speak for mint, but with personal capital I opened a support case and told them about the new account and how it wasn't showing up. They told me to leave it in the current state and their dev team would look in...
by conlius
Mon Mar 14, 2016 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Roth IRA
Replies: 6
Views: 891

Re: Vanguard Roth IRA

I think you answered your own question: VTI, VXUS, BND, BNDX. Although, 50, 30, 20, 10 equals 110%.
by conlius
Sun Mar 13, 2016 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis
Replies: 104
Views: 14949

Re: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis

Good read, definitely a lot of appreciated work put into this. I think you make some good points and there are definitely some good responses in this thread. I guess it is not immediately apparent but it does make sense that rebalancing will incur penalty because the outcome of the non-rebalanced portfolio is one with a glide path toward the highest long-term returning asset. Of course, that is typically the opposite of what the average investor does over their investment lifetime (reduce risk as you age) but that's not really what this is report is about. I also have to agree that it should probably not be referred to as a bonus like many robo-advisors like to call it these days. I've always looked at rebalancing as a risk tool and either ...
by conlius
Sun Mar 13, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I or should I start my own fund ?
Replies: 52
Views: 7033

Re: How do I or should I start my own fund ?

How many individual stock positions do you own? Do you think you could consistently beat the market (by a large percentage) if you had to manage 200+ positions and sporadic influx/reduction of money (people continually adding and removing various allotments of money from your pool) and keep cash drag to a minimum? I know I am not answering any questions in your post, but I am just curious. I can handle a small portfolio of individual stocks on my own, but managing big money and trying to understand the financial reporting and binary events of 200+ positions while knowing how they each react to changes in the global economy is daunting to me. You can hire other people to do research/timing for you...but then again they probably won't all hav...
by conlius
Sun Feb 28, 2016 9:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why have an emergency fund if portfolio is big enough?
Replies: 75
Views: 9958

Re: Why have an emergency fund if portfolio is big enough?

I've always been curious about emergency fund sizing.

If one has an HSA that has a large sum of money with some bonds (mine is 40% bonds in lifestrategy moderate growth due to only cheap option), and a couple of relatively large Roth with some bonds (husband/wife each at 30% or so), can you back off your emergency fund some? I only ask because most of the emergencies I can think of are health related or job loss. Access to Roth bonds if they are short enough term covers most of the job loss and HSA covers health costs if you needed it. Granted if you have some money in munis in a taxable it might also cover anything else (roof, car problems, etc). thoughts?
by conlius
Sun Feb 28, 2016 12:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Finally - Maxed 401k - Now What
Replies: 40
Views: 7264

Re: Finally - Maxed 401k - Now What

My order in the past. I am also finally on track to max everything due to significant income increase by myself and my wife:

1. His and her 401k to match
2. Max HSA
3. Max his and her Roth
4. Max his and her 401k
5. 529 if you have kids
6. Taxable

This is of course assuming you have an emergency fund. Also, If you are in a career that could result lawsuit (Doctor, own a business, etc) review creditor protection of deferred annuities in your state.

Can also look into ibonds as a place to put some deferred interest for yourself or your kids college.

Just my 2 cents.
by conlius
Fri Feb 26, 2016 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources
Replies: 33
Views: 3986

Re: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources

Any fund representing less than 5% of a portfolio is nearly meaningless and seldom worth the added cost and complexity. This always baffles me when I read it and it is mentioned here a lot. 3 portfolios backtested from 1972 until today. 10k initial deposit: 1. 100% TSM. Final Balance: 704,957 , CAGR: 10.15% 2. Replace 5% with cash for 95/5 TSM/Cash: Final Balance: 656,021 , CAGR: 9.97% 3. Replace 5% with EM for 95/5 TSM/EM: Final Balance: 810,315 , CAGR: 10.50% The future gain/loss is not known (of course) but that is completely different from saying 5% is insignificant/meaningless. If that were the case, you should be able to put 5% of your portfolio in the toilet or real estate and not notice a difference 30-40 years later. This extreme ...
by conlius
Fri Feb 26, 2016 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources
Replies: 33
Views: 3986

Re: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources

Any fund representing less than 5% of a portfolio is nearly meaningless and seldom worth the added cost and complexity. This always baffles me when I read it and it is mentioned here a lot. 3 portfolios backtested from 1972 until today. 10k initial deposit: 1. 100% TSM. Final Balance: 704,957 , CAGR: 10.15% 2. Replace 5% with cash for 95/5 TSM/Cash: Final Balance: 656,021 , CAGR: 9.97% 3. Replace 5% with EM for 95/5 TSM/EM: Final Balance: 810,315 , CAGR: 10.50% The future gain/loss is not known (of course) but that is completely different from saying 5% is insignificant/meaningless. If that were the case, you should be able to put 5% of your portfolio in the toilet or real estate and not notice a difference 30-40 years later. This extreme ...
by conlius
Thu Feb 25, 2016 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources
Replies: 33
Views: 3986

Re: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources

Any fund representing less than 5% of a portfolio is nearly meaningless and seldom worth the added cost and complexity. This always baffles me when I read it and it is mentioned here a lot. 3 portfolios backtested from 1972 until today. 10k initial deposit: 1. 100% TSM. Final Balance: 704,957 , CAGR: 10.15% 2. Replace 5% with cash for 95/5 TSM/Cash: Final Balance: 656,021 , CAGR: 9.97% 3. Replace 5% with EM for 95/5 TSM/EM: Final Balance: 810,315 , CAGR: 10.50% The future gain/loss is not known (of course) but that is completely different from saying 5% is insignificant/meaningless. If that were the case, you should be able to put 5% of your portfolio in the toilet or real estate and not notice a difference 30-40 years later. This extreme ...
by conlius
Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Capital One Investing
Replies: 3
Views: 1285

Re: Capital One Investing

It is sharebuilder, just rebranded after the buyout.

7 bucks per stock trade which is pretty standard. No load/no fee mutual funds but they don't offer any with low expenses.

No commission free ETFs

Only low expense mutual funds have something like an $18 transaction fee.
by conlius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 50:50 Life Strategy Mod Growth and Balanced Index?
Replies: 10
Views: 1366

Re: 50:50 Life Strategy Mod Growth and Balanced Index?

goingup wrote:Honestly, I think you're tinkering again!

You very studiously considered the move to Life Strategy Mod Growth just a few months ago. Now obviously the International component of that fund is flagging a little so you're considering swapping 1/2 out for Balanced Index, which contains no International.

Naturally, each one of us has to construct the portfolio that's right for us, but changes in reaction to a segment's underperformance usually aren't optimal. My advice---quit tinkering. :)
But didn't vanguard just increase the international equity/bond exposure on these funds recently? I would say if the underlying fund changed and is no longer within his comfort level, he/she should adjust accordingly.
by conlius
Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Joint finances and cash management
Replies: 38
Views: 5140

Re: Joint finances and cash management

Just got married 6 months ago and everything is joint now. Been with her for 6.5 years and we lived together for a few years before getting engaged. At that point everything was already meshed due to several large purchased (buying car in cash, expensive wedding, traveling a lot to see family, etc) plus all the smaller ones (rent, insurance, groceries, etc). It got to a point where we had no clue how much each of us had put toward purchases so we stopped caring. We have both, over time, determined that it didn't matter and everything was one pot of money. It's a group effort and finally being able to join all our accounts (minus IRAs/401k of course) actually turned out to make things way easier for us. To each his/her own.
by conlius
Fri Aug 14, 2015 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri Launching A Robo Advisory
Replies: 31
Views: 9305

Re: Rick Ferri Launching A Robo Advisory

columbia wrote:A robo service which is able to manage IRA, ROTH, taxable, etc. and treat them as one pool and in the most advantageous tax manner would fill a niche.
This is what betterment does. It breaks them up into separate goals with different timelines but is tax aware and efficient. You can also add all the accounts together (plus external account balances and stock/bond allocations) to create a total retirement plan that shows you what you will have for safe withdrawal. This is kinda where I think robo advisors actually do well...providing you will an overall "this is where you are" and "this is where you need to be" setup
by conlius
Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri Launching A Robo Advisory
Replies: 31
Views: 9305

Re: Rick Ferri Launching A Robo Advisory

If Rick's product offers features equivalent or comparable to betterment/wealthfront, I would put some of my money there. I think his portfolio is better than either of theirs. Betterment lacks international small-cap and reits, wealthfront has commodities and a heavier allocation to EM. Tax-loss harvesting, tax-efficient selling of assets (instead of first-in/first-out), ability to buy partial shares, ability to have dividends & new funds invested based on drift, ability to manage multiple accounts across a family (my taxable, my IRA, my Roth, my wife's Roth, a child's trust) in a tax-aware way to prevent wash-sales, ability to choose different stocks/bonds % based on account and investing time-frame (child's trust might be more aggres...
by conlius
Mon Jul 27, 2015 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All REIT roth?
Replies: 20
Views: 3139

Re: All REIT roth?

The only issue is: In the event your REIT value drops too far below your set AA, you will be forced to purchase REITs in your 401k/tIRA. Worst case, you have to buy them in a taxable account, at which point you have to look at the tax consequences vs adjusting your AA.
by conlius
Mon Jul 27, 2015 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I know I'm not the only one... [dividend paying stock funds]
Replies: 24
Views: 3799

Re: I know I'm not the only one... [dividend paying stock funds]

The idea is to invest some of the portfolio in dividend yield and some in dividend growth stocks. In turn, you get a dividend payout that grows anywhere from 5-10% (or more if you are lucky and/or know what you are doing) per year, outpacing inflation on your yield. Many of the dividend people looks for income & income growth. Dips in principle are buying opportunities (i.e. value investing). It's all centered around the yield of your portfolio compared to the cost of you portfolio and you will often hear about stocks being purchased for $2,000 that now pay $2,000 annually. The concept is attractive to people especially due to the "never touch the principle in retirement" - since you would never have to sell shares when the ma...
by conlius
Sat Jul 04, 2015 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?
Replies: 84
Views: 11903

Re: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?

My question is, what is the ending allocation on these...and is it something you would be comfortable with today.


If you start out 40 bonds / 60 stocks and never rebalance or never add to it, your portfolio would gradually become more risky due to larger allocation to stocks. You could have years with a larger swingd which could be a strain mentally or have different effects on overall performance of the portfolio if you were also drawing on it (say, if you retired halfway through)...correct? Just a thought.
by conlius
Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.
Replies: 21
Views: 3064

Re: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.

ogd wrote:
alligator7 wrote: As it is, it's more like you are investing in the difference between the price of a contract on day A and on day B, and such things (like many other things contained in derivative ETFs) have a habit of just eating at your money forever unless you have perfect timing.
If that is the case and they always seem to go down and eat away at your money, couldn't you just short it? If they always seem to go down, couldn't everyone just play that side? Margin call could be taken care of with a delta hedge of call options. I mean, you would obviously want to avoid a margin call by buying after it popped...or in the case of VXX, when there is a volatility spike.
by conlius
Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Socially Responsible Investing
Replies: 43
Views: 6015

Re: Socially Responsible Investing

Invest in the total stock market fund that way you are not giving favor to any one single socially irresponsible company. Yes and one can always contribute to socially responsible causes. The concept of socially responsible investing is definitely a noteworthy cause and one that I would support but I have to agree with these statements as well. I like the idea of owning funds that do "the right" thing but I also like the idea of the global market growing organically and increasing the value of companies that provide what people really want and/or need. The question on whether it is more socially responsible to invest in specific assets vs investing with the goal of supporting my own family/friends seems like a good conversation p...
by conlius
Fri May 29, 2015 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This time is different
Replies: 44
Views: 7010

Re: This time is different

If bonds drop due to rate hike: new contributions buying at higher interest which net more long term. Rebalance stocks into bonds. If stocks drop: new contributions at lower prices. rebalance bonds into stocks. If both drop: new contributions at lower prices. Both have the ability for principle appreciate in the future if rates drop again at some point in my life (after they rise and I buy more) or if stocks recover (after buying them low). I don't think it is a big deal if you are making contributions and have a long investment horizon...a 20% drop today is not a big deal when you are looking at investing from age 30 to 80. Maybe if you after in retirement and need to protect a couple million you might look at it another way...but that's n...
by conlius
Fri May 29, 2015 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forget BND. Here's another idea...
Replies: 39
Views: 6785

Re: Forget BND. Here's another idea...

substitute dividend stocks for your corporate bonds? Might sound like it makes sense when yields are low and dividend stocks have only gone up. What about when stocks go down? Which will keep their principle in a falling market? Bonds are meant to preserve capital while earning interest.
by conlius
Fri May 29, 2015 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?
Replies: 50
Views: 9657

Re: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?

Depends on duration...If I'm investing for 30-40 years using a 4-6 year duration, a rise interest rates to more normal levels will net more money if you continually buy and reinvest the distributions. If you are investing for 2-3 years using an 8-10 year duration bond fund, you are taking a lot of risk. Unfortunately, short term is not very attractive. I personally keep my non-retirement money in a mix of cash and short/intermediate munis to keep duration down around 2-3 years. 401k/Ira I stick with 4-6 as I have time to recover and plan to continually add at all interest levels.
by conlius
Thu Feb 05, 2015 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best investment for $500
Replies: 31
Views: 3516

Re: Best investment for $500

Why not build a motif of a dozen of your picks? That way you aren't banking on 1 company being successful and it will be more of a thrill than putting all your money in a single index.