Search found 95 matches

by conlius
Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long-term Treasuries killing it!
Replies: 20
Views: 2487

Re: Long-term Treasuries killing it!

If yields weren't already so low The performance was exactly because yields have fallen over that period. Not sure I believe this. If bond rates didn’t fall and you held them for 40 years you would have received income equal to the coupon which was in excess of the return of the market as a whole. ...
by conlius
Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?
Replies: 258
Views: 22666

Re: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?

Wife can cut my hair in a pinch but she can really only use the trimmers. Will start with a 5/6 on the top and work her way down as she gets to the sides and try to blend it all in. It’s fine once you get past the first couple tries. That first one was pretty rough.
by conlius
Sun Aug 04, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pick one: $135,000 rental property or $110,000 in REITs
Replies: 89
Views: 12602

Re: Pick one: $135,000 rental property or $110,000 in REITs

The significantly higher risk of holding a single asset should show significantly higher rewards or it just doesn’t make sense to me. If the house is paid off I’d either sell and buy VNQ to reduce risk or go all in and leverage up to a larger house so long as the additional borrowed money would brin...
by conlius
Sun Oct 21, 2018 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Rebalancing, Annual vs on New Cash Inputs
Replies: 4
Views: 596

Re: Understanding Rebalancing, Annual vs on New Cash Inputs

Rebalancing with regular deposits seems like a logical thing to do. You are naturally buying the most depressed assets. Eventually the portfolio will become large enough that new cash probably won’t keep up with rebalancing needs and you will have to do a combination of both new money and annual adj...
by conlius
Wed Apr 04, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finished?
Replies: 129
Views: 15021

Re: What Are Your Thoughts On The Recent Bitcoin Bust? Is It Apart of the Boom/Bust Cycle or Is The CryptoCurrency Finis

A asset's price is its discounted free cash flow. Dividends, interest payments, rents, etc. It is tied to economically productive assets. The theory on this is solid. So investing. Bitcoin, gold, Benie Babies, collectoable cars, etc. don't have any cash flows. Their value is based on what somebody ...
by conlius
Sat Feb 03, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 604
Views: 127320

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

Yes, it is a good fund. However... You have been looking at historic performance. The problem with this is that it includes a very long bull market in bonds. However, interest rates are now low, and while they may or may not go up from here, they certainly cannot repeat the results from 1980 to 201...
by conlius
Thu Feb 01, 2018 12:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trex Decking Without Fascia
Replies: 27
Views: 3726

Re: Trex Decking Without Fascia

My trex 30x10 back porch, with 4 stairs plus my front landing with 6 stairs and all the railings was just shy of 6k worth of materials. That's with an in-law buying the materials at contractor prices and him not taking a cut. I then paid a couple of his guys two days at his cost to rebuild. Total co...
by conlius
Sun Jan 21, 2018 5:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Humidifier input please
Replies: 48
Views: 4404

Re: Home Humidifier input please

I have one being installed this week on my furnace. We went with the true spray humidifier with an RO unit in front of it. My HVAC guy told me pad ones can promote mold growth that you end up breathing. The spray system has problems with mineral buildup which is why the RO is going in front of it an...
by conlius
Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?
Replies: 166
Views: 25932

Re: How are folks handling the unprecedented rise in the market ?

Isn't the market is up something like 5% nominal annually over the last 17 years? Probably closer to unprecedented on the downside than upside. That's not what we're talking about. S&P500 is up 11% YTD. Total international is up 17% YTD. I've been rebalancing incrementally in retirement to keep...
by conlius
Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 50% Cash, 50% Stocks: The Opportunistic Portfolio
Replies: 43
Views: 7586

Re: 50% Cash, 50% Stocks: The Opportunistic Portfolio

50% cash will probably just make you less rich.

I assume there are many people here that could take a 50% haircut today and still be above where they would be if they had just held cash.
by conlius
Mon May 08, 2017 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Does The 60/40 Work So Well?
Replies: 81
Views: 16455

Re: WHy Does The 60/40 Work So Well?

Why has the 60%/40% asset allocation worked so well? The 35 year bond bull market that started in 1982. The 30 year Treasury bond yielded 14% in February 1982. Today it yields 3.02%. I don't think 30 year Treasury bond yield will fall 78% (14% to 3% from 1982 to 2017) over the next 30-35 years. The...
by conlius
Mon May 08, 2017 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why save so much for when you're old?
Replies: 163
Views: 25656

Re: Why save so much for when you're old?

Throwing a bit extra at financial independence is usually not that noticeable to a lifestyle but it can do wonders for your future. Find the balance...Then hope that current you never regrets the decisions of past you.
by conlius
Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System
Replies: 77
Views: 15441

Re: Christine Benz's Three Bucket System

Buckets seem difficult to manage. Between his/her 401k, his/her roth IRA, his/her traditional IRA, HSAs, etc plus income coming from pensions/social security/annuities. Basically you are building logical buckets across multiple accounts. I think it can be made much easier. Example 1mil portfolio. Ne...
by conlius
Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why did my fund GO UP so much?
Replies: 33
Views: 4158

Re: Why did my fund GO UP so much?

Was there a split or reverse split? I have had a brokerage do something funky like that where they re-calculated the share count but not the price (or vice versa, can't remember).
by conlius
Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Adults trip in May to Zion and Bryce National Parks
Replies: 21
Views: 3050

Re: Adults trip in May to Zion and Bryce National Parks

I used to go there all the time when I lived out in that area. If you want to see thousands of elk, drive the road at the top part of Zion as the sun comes up. Also, stop at the Buffalo ranch and get a buffalo burger! You can also catch big horn rams at the top part of Zion. Bryce is more of a stop ...
by conlius
Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CEFs beat Vanguard
Replies: 9
Views: 2210

Re: CEFs beat Vanguard

The first one I looked at that beat VTI for 3 years was DNP which is classified as a utilities fund. So this is definitely not something to pay too much attention to as it is not an accurate comparison.
by conlius
Fri Feb 24, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Rebalance
Replies: 7
Views: 1095

Re: TIAA Rebalance

alright, thanks for all the feedback everyone! I'll continue doing research and call them. They certainly didn't make this simple!
by conlius
Thu Feb 23, 2017 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: TIAA Rebalance
Replies: 7
Views: 1095

TIAA Rebalance

I just looked at my parents TIAA-CREF account. They are 63/64 and plan to retire in a couple years. I noticed that the accounts are ~70% in a combination of CREF Stock, Growth and Global Equity. They indicated that they wanted to "take some stock gains off the table" and asked me to look a...
by conlius
Mon Feb 20, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?
Replies: 131
Views: 10260

Re: 20% bonds: why bother at 48?

The last 10 years is one example why I would keep some bonds. Entering the market in 2007 with 100% equities vs a 65/35 portfolio (like wellington for example) would put you in about the same place today with your portfolio but the max draw down was worse with all equities. Hell, S&P 500 didn't ...
by conlius
Mon Jul 25, 2016 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?
Replies: 28
Views: 3851

Re: Feelings changing about AA as annual savings amount increases?

I was comfortable with 100/0 in the beginning. Life has changed. The amount of money in the pool has increased significantlly, I got married and my wife is more financially conservative, purchased a house, etc. Things change and your tolerance to risk can change. Just make sure you go at it with as ...
by conlius
Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?
Replies: 51
Views: 12259

Re: Why do people invest in Long Term Bonds now?

Some people believe that rates will continue to fall and stay low long term. Some people believe the only rate hikes in intermediate future will be so they can be dropped again if the economy has issues. It depends on your view. In BND, you are still buying long term bonds. There are just enough sho...
by conlius
Sun Jul 03, 2016 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vti as high yield looooong term cd
Replies: 16
Views: 2030

Re: Vti as high yield looooong term cd

If going this route you could also just buy low cost dividend oriented funds (vym for example) and build a globally diversified portfolio out of the that plus international value/dividend funds and get higher dividends but probably not as high growth. However, yields are super low right either way.
by conlius
Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: HSA- how much do you actually invest?
Replies: 42
Views: 6410

Re: HSA- how much do you actually invest?

Invest everything. I have to have a minimum cash balance of like 1k to invest. Everything over that cash minimum goes directly into the investment portion which has a combo of stocks and bonds. If your company has incentives, it's really easy to get a good chunk of change in there, especially if the...
by conlius
Wed Apr 20, 2016 12:08 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Where to park money for the medium term?
Replies: 13
Views: 1657

Re: Where to park money for the medium term?

Isn't it better to put money in I Bonds then? The highest yielding CD I can find now is 1.67% with Eloan.com. All other CDs yield 1.6%. I Bonds yield 1.64% and is exempt from State tax, hence 1.722% effective in my state. From what I understand, the rate is about to drop significantly. I think the ...
by conlius
Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Series EE bonds as holder for emergency funds
Replies: 9
Views: 1852

Re: Series EE bonds as holder for emergency funds

I would say i-bonds for emergency fund if anything since there is less of a withdrawal penalty (none after 5 years) and your purchasing power on that lump of rotting cash will at least try to keep up with inflation. However, I would much rather keep my EF in a combination of high-yield savings and s...
by conlius
Mon Apr 18, 2016 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: mortgage pre payment, why?
Replies: 103
Views: 16834

Re: mortgage pre payment, why?

I've never understood the extreme comparisons for invest vs pay down mortgage. We have no idea what market returns, inflation/defaltion, future rates, or tax laws surrounding mortgage interest are going to be in the future. So why not just do a bit of both? Figure your excess money after 401k/IRA/HS...
by conlius
Tue Apr 12, 2016 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clink Investing App with Access to 6 Vanguard Funds
Replies: 10
Views: 4162

Re: Clink Investing App with Access to 6 Vanguard Funds

^^^^How is that much different than buying different shares (some of them fractional) across your 401k portfolio, Roth IRA, or taxable account on a bi-weekly basis as your paychecks come in? It is just a different scale. Probably talking about tax lots. If you set it to save on every CC transaction...
by conlius
Thu Mar 31, 2016 10:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One 360 New Money Market Account, 1% on over 10k
Replies: 101
Views: 30639

Re: Capital One 360 New Money Market Account, 1% on over 10k

Thank you for the heads-up! I just moved some money there last night. Question - does anyone know how to get this account to show up on Mint? I refreshed my Mint accounts this morning after creating the Money Market account, but it won't sync. It only shows my current checking and savings accounts....
by conlius
Mon Mar 14, 2016 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Roth IRA
Replies: 6
Views: 839

Re: Vanguard Roth IRA

I think you answered your own question: VTI, VXUS, BND, BNDX. Although, 50, 30, 20, 10 equals 110%.
by conlius
Sun Mar 13, 2016 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis
Replies: 104
Views: 13058

Re: The Elusive Rebalancing Bonus, An Analysis

Good read, definitely a lot of appreciated work put into this. I think you make some good points and there are definitely some good responses in this thread. I guess it is not immediately apparent but it does make sense that rebalancing will incur penalty because the outcome of the non-rebalanced po...
by conlius
Sun Mar 13, 2016 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do I or should I start my own fund ?
Replies: 52
Views: 6547

Re: How do I or should I start my own fund ?

How many individual stock positions do you own? Do you think you could consistently beat the market (by a large percentage) if you had to manage 200+ positions and sporadic influx/reduction of money (people continually adding and removing various allotments of money from your pool) and keep cash dra...
by conlius
Sun Feb 28, 2016 10:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why have an emergency fund if portfolio is big enough?
Replies: 75
Views: 9328

Re: Why have an emergency fund if portfolio is big enough?

I've always been curious about emergency fund sizing. If one has an HSA that has a large sum of money with some bonds (mine is 40% bonds in lifestrategy moderate growth due to only cheap option), and a couple of relatively large Roth with some bonds (husband/wife each at 30% or so), can you back off...
by conlius
Sun Feb 28, 2016 1:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Finally - Maxed 401k - Now What
Replies: 40
Views: 6735

Re: Finally - Maxed 401k - Now What

My order in the past. I am also finally on track to max everything due to significant income increase by myself and my wife: 1. His and her 401k to match 2. Max HSA 3. Max his and her Roth 4. Max his and her 401k 5. 529 if you have kids 6. Taxable This is of course assuming you have an emergency fun...
by conlius
Fri Feb 26, 2016 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources
Replies: 33
Views: 3543

Re: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources

Any fund representing less than 5% of a portfolio is nearly meaningless and seldom worth the added cost and complexity. This always baffles me when I read it and it is mentioned here a lot. 3 portfolios backtested from 1972 until today. 10k initial deposit: 1. 100% TSM. Final Balance: 704,957 , CAG...
by conlius
Fri Feb 26, 2016 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources
Replies: 33
Views: 3543

Re: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources

Any fund representing less than 5% of a portfolio is nearly meaningless and seldom worth the added cost and complexity. This always baffles me when I read it and it is mentioned here a lot. 3 portfolios backtested from 1972 until today. 10k initial deposit: 1. 100% TSM. Final Balance: 704,957 , CAG...
by conlius
Thu Feb 25, 2016 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources
Replies: 33
Views: 3543

Re: 5% of Portfolio in Natural Resources

Any fund representing less than 5% of a portfolio is nearly meaningless and seldom worth the added cost and complexity. This always baffles me when I read it and it is mentioned here a lot. 3 portfolios backtested from 1972 until today. 10k initial deposit: 1. 100% TSM. Final Balance: 704,957 , CAG...
by conlius
Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:54 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Capital One Investing
Replies: 3
Views: 1106

Re: Capital One Investing

It is sharebuilder, just rebranded after the buyout.

7 bucks per stock trade which is pretty standard. No load/no fee mutual funds but they don't offer any with low expenses.

No commission free ETFs

Only low expense mutual funds have something like an $18 transaction fee.
by conlius
Wed Sep 02, 2015 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 50:50 Life Strategy Mod Growth and Balanced Index?
Replies: 10
Views: 1291

Re: 50:50 Life Strategy Mod Growth and Balanced Index?

Honestly, I think you're tinkering again! You very studiously considered the move to Life Strategy Mod Growth just a few months ago. Now obviously the International component of that fund is flagging a little so you're considering swapping 1/2 out for Balanced Index, which contains no International...
by conlius
Fri Aug 28, 2015 12:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Joint finances and cash management
Replies: 38
Views: 4737

Re: Joint finances and cash management

Just got married 6 months ago and everything is joint now. Been with her for 6.5 years and we lived together for a few years before getting engaged. At that point everything was already meshed due to several large purchased (buying car in cash, expensive wedding, traveling a lot to see family, etc) ...
by conlius
Fri Aug 14, 2015 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri Launching A Robo Advisory
Replies: 31
Views: 8939

Re: Rick Ferri Launching A Robo Advisory

A robo service which is able to manage IRA, ROTH, taxable, etc. and treat them as one pool and in the most advantageous tax manner would fill a niche. This is what betterment does. It breaks them up into separate goals with different timelines but is tax aware and efficient. You can also add all th...
by conlius
Tue Aug 11, 2015 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rick Ferri Launching A Robo Advisory
Replies: 31
Views: 8939

Re: Rick Ferri Launching A Robo Advisory

If Rick's product offers features equivalent or comparable to betterment/wealthfront, I would put some of my money there. I think his portfolio is better than either of theirs. Betterment lacks international small-cap and reits, wealthfront has commodities and a heavier allocation to EM. Tax-loss ha...
by conlius
Mon Jul 27, 2015 11:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All REIT roth?
Replies: 20
Views: 2948

Re: All REIT roth?

The only issue is: In the event your REIT value drops too far below your set AA, you will be forced to purchase REITs in your 401k/tIRA. Worst case, you have to buy them in a taxable account, at which point you have to look at the tax consequences vs adjusting your AA.
by conlius
Mon Jul 27, 2015 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I know I'm not the only one... [dividend paying stock funds]
Replies: 24
Views: 3623

Re: I know I'm not the only one... [dividend paying stock funds]

The idea is to invest some of the portfolio in dividend yield and some in dividend growth stocks. In turn, you get a dividend payout that grows anywhere from 5-10% (or more if you are lucky and/or know what you are doing) per year, outpacing inflation on your yield. Many of the dividend people looks...
by conlius
Sat Jul 04, 2015 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?
Replies: 84
Views: 11193

Re: Aren't we obsessing way too much about our portfolios?

My question is, what is the ending allocation on these...and is it something you would be comfortable with today. If you start out 40 bonds / 60 stocks and never rebalance or never add to it, your portfolio would gradually become more risky due to larger allocation to stocks. You could have years wi...
by conlius
Wed Jun 17, 2015 8:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.
Replies: 21
Views: 2902

Re: Help - Leveraged ETF's and Natural Gas.

As it is, it's more like you are investing in the difference between the price of a contract on day A and on day B, and such things (like many other things contained in derivative ETFs) have a habit of just eating at your money forever unless you have perfect timing. If that is the case and they al...
by conlius
Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:04 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Socially Responsible Investing
Replies: 43
Views: 5570

Re: Socially Responsible Investing

Invest in the total stock market fund that way you are not giving favor to any one single socially irresponsible company. Yes and one can always contribute to socially responsible causes. The concept of socially responsible investing is definitely a noteworthy cause and one that I would support but...
by conlius
Fri May 29, 2015 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This time is different
Replies: 44
Views: 6706

Re: This time is different

If bonds drop due to rate hike: new contributions buying at higher interest which net more long term. Rebalance stocks into bonds. If stocks drop: new contributions at lower prices. rebalance bonds into stocks. If both drop: new contributions at lower prices. Both have the ability for principle appr...
by conlius
Fri May 29, 2015 5:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forget BND. Here's another idea...
Replies: 39
Views: 6591

Re: Forget BND. Here's another idea...

substitute dividend stocks for your corporate bonds? Might sound like it makes sense when yields are low and dividend stocks have only gone up. What about when stocks go down? Which will keep their principle in a falling market? Bonds are meant to preserve capital while earning interest.
by conlius
Fri May 29, 2015 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?
Replies: 50
Views: 8973

Re: Help me simply understand why Bonds now?

Depends on duration...If I'm investing for 30-40 years using a 4-6 year duration, a rise interest rates to more normal levels will net more money if you continually buy and reinvest the distributions. If you are investing for 2-3 years using an 8-10 year duration bond fund, you are taking a lot of r...
by conlius
Thu Feb 05, 2015 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best investment for $500
Replies: 31
Views: 3301

Re: Best investment for $500

Why not build a motif of a dozen of your picks? That way you aren't banking on 1 company being successful and it will be more of a thrill than putting all your money in a single index.