Search found 1477 matches

by Tanelorn
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 341
Views: 21763

Re: Invest in Tesla?

This WSJ article has lots of details, beyond just the headline that the SEC has a formal investigation of Tesla and are subpoenaing various senior executives. https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sends-subpoena-to-tesla-in-probe-over-musk-tweets-1534366752?ru=yahoo?mod=yahoo_itp&yptr=yahoo The big insti...
by Tanelorn
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: nytimes buy vs rent calc does not consider new tax law
Replies: 8
Views: 1274

Re: nytimes buy vs rent calc does not consider new tax law

gmaynardkrebs wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:35 pm
I think part of their problem is NY and several other states are challenging the the new law in court. They are also discussing tactics to avoid SALT by creating new loopholes in state law. It is not yer settled yet in their eyes.
They seem like they're still in denial, and not just about this.
by Tanelorn
Fri Aug 10, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inherited IRAs not exempt from bankruptcy
Replies: 28
Views: 3196

Re: Inherited IRAs not exempt from bankruptcy

NY case where an inherited IRA is found not to be protected in bankruptcy.

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail ... 02beb89de5
by Tanelorn
Fri Aug 10, 2018 3:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arbitrage on collecting dividend
Replies: 29
Views: 1621

Re: Arbitrage on collecting dividend

viewer0 wrote:
Wed Aug 08, 2018 3:31 pm
What am I missing ?
Your calls will be exercised early and you won't get the $0.42 dividend.

https://ibkr.info/node/2081
by Tanelorn
Wed Aug 08, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 158
Views: 15721

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

That which goes down, often goes back up again. Our two previous leaders, Tanelorn and goblue100 were up over 70% on their shorts. Both their short picks, OMNT and WINS respectively, however, have both tripled off their lows. This lead to a shakeup in the rankings in which Tanelorn is back in 1st an...
by Tanelorn
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 341
Views: 21763

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Two good articles on the recent TSLA situation, legal consequences, etc. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-08/elon-musk-has-some-fun-with-tesla https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/08/business/elon-musk-tesla-sec.html Perhaps also of note, Softbank denied any interest and called TSLA stock ...
by Tanelorn
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 341
Views: 21763

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Would you give Musk $100B to buy out everyone? I don’t think anyone else will either. If he keeps the stock price high enough, he may be able to pay off the nearly $1B in convertible debt due later this year in stock rather than cash, which would mean at least they don’t run out of cash until next ...
by Tanelorn
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Have Private Reits worked for you?
Replies: 17
Views: 1002

Re: Have Private Reits worked for you?

You will not find too many enthusiasts here among non-public REIT owners.

http://www.reitwrecks.com/forum/viewfor ... 0a44b7c8f0
by Tanelorn
Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 341
Views: 21763

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Would you give Musk $100B to buy out everyone? I don’t think anyone else will either. If he keeps the stock price high enough, he may be able to pay off the nearly $1B in convertible debt due later this year in stock rather than cash, which would mean at least they don’t run out of cash until next y...
by Tanelorn
Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UTMA - Liquidating stock investment
Replies: 3
Views: 349

Re: UTMA - Liquidating stock investment

This article may be helpful. Yes, kiddie tax rates are higher under the new tax law. I would look into selling as much of the company stock each year as you can tax free. It’s up to you if you want to pay higher taxes to dispose of it sooner, depending on the company prospects and riskiness. https:/...
by Tanelorn
Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe
Replies: 90
Views: 13238

Re: If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe

boglerdude wrote:
Fri Aug 03, 2018 11:32 pm
Is it that difficult to value companies? Does it matter if the valuations are off?
Yes and yes.
by Tanelorn
Thu Aug 02, 2018 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 341
Views: 21763

Re: Invest in Tesla?

"Tesla reports the biggest loss in its history," looks like Q2 had a $720 million loss and total $1.4 billion this year. So with $2.2 billion cash, Tesla will be bankrupt by this time next year? Is that what you're looking at for recommending people to short the stock? They won’t go bankrupt but th...
by Tanelorn
Mon Jul 30, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15026

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

The best way to get leverage is via futures. In a taxable account, are futures better than margin at IB? Probably not. The reason is that on futures, you get to pay taxes on HALF of your unrealized gains, every year. Plus, when rolling futures, you will have to sell, resulting in having to pay shor...
by Tanelorn
Thu Jul 26, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China Hustle Movie
Replies: 35
Views: 5000

Re: China Hustle Movie

It's a hurdle to qualify to be in a US market index fund Not really. Small cap indexes buy stocks starting as low as $150M in total valuation. That’s not too much, especially if the company gives lots of shares to the insiders and then lies about the float. These index providers aren’t doing any du...
by Tanelorn
Thu Jul 26, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 341
Views: 21763

Re: Invest in Tesla?

Tesla is the most difficult of all stocks to trade in my opinion. I've done it a couple of times but the market sentiment is more difficult to read than any other stock. Most people that love their Tesla buy the stock, Musk has a huge position. Other insiders have a very large position then you hav...
by Tanelorn
Tue Jul 24, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 341
Views: 21763

Re: Invest in Tesla?

They’ve got real near term financial problems and Musk seems to be falling apart mentally. All the major executives have left and the company is dysfunctional internally. Stay away or sell short, but I would not buy now. If they still exist in an attractive form as a company in two years, take anoth...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 158
Views: 15721

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Congratulations to goblue100 for taking 2nd place with his short WINS pick, now up 65%! goblue100 took 1st place with his short pick WINS on Friday, now up 71% for the year and barely edging out Tanelorn who had taken first for some time. Tanelorn's short pick, OMNT, has tripled off their lows and ...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15026

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

In the famous inspirational poem "If," Rudyard Kipling counts the ability to take big risks as part of what it takes to "be a man:" If you can make one heap of all your winnings And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss, And lose, and start again at your beginnings And never breathe a word about yo...
by Tanelorn
Sat Jul 14, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?
Replies: 206
Views: 15026

Re: Why is leveraging property good but leveraging stocks bad?

What I don’t understand is why leverage is frowned upon for stocks but not for property where leverage is usually 5x. I tried to brainstorm what the reasons leveraging stocks is bad compared to property: • A home can provide you with shelter no matter if the price drops • Higher financing costs for...
by Tanelorn
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 158
Views: 15721

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Congratulations to goblue100 for taking 2nd place with his short WINS pick, now up 65%!
by Tanelorn
Sat Jun 30, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 1937
Views: 353076

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

The S&P500 is up about 3% while bond indexes are down about -2%, as first half of the year. As such, a 60/40 portfolio would be up about 0.6% YTD. You can multiply by your AA to see your personal benchmark. For equity indexes you can see how they did this year in the chart below. Compared to the S&P...
by Tanelorn
Tue Jun 26, 2018 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is day trading profitable?
Replies: 36
Views: 3210

Re: Is day trading profitable?

Sure, day trading is just like investing, only moreso. Sometimes, if you're good or lucky, it makes money and has great returns. Other times, if your bad or unlucky, it loses money. Only that result, say +-20% or whatever, can happen in a few days instead of a few years. Costs are much higher for tr...
by Tanelorn
Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Betterment fined
Replies: 12
Views: 2583

Re: Betterment fined

One example cited in the article is that they initially let customers access their money within a day of selling it, instead of waiting 3 days for the transactions to settle. Not waiting the 3 days allowed an opportunity for fraud or losses. They now wait 3 days like everybody else. That sounds lik...
by Tanelorn
Sat Jun 23, 2018 12:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Foreign Taxes paid from Foreign Index fund in 401K
Replies: 5
Views: 518

Re: Foreign Taxes paid from Foreign Index fund in 401K

No, no tax credit or deduction. If it's your IRA, you could in theory file a foreign tax return to try to reclaim those lost withholdings, but in practice that's not going to be worth it but you could do it if you really wanted. Good luck getting your 401k custodian to do all that work themselves to...
by Tanelorn
Fri Jun 22, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Active can never beat Passive
Replies: 33
Views: 3264

Re: Why Active can never beat Passive

This argument is known as the Arithmetic of Active Management And it's false, or at least as it is widely and misleadingly applied to index funds. This has been discussed a few times in the past and someone even wrote an academic paper pointing out the flaws. Basically Sharpe's argument isn't very ...
by Tanelorn
Thu Jun 21, 2018 6:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hedging RSU's
Replies: 11
Views: 870

Re: Hedging RSU's

OP - You should ask yourself if you want downside protection and still have upside to further gains (in which case you want puts, but they will be very expensive), or if you are happy with today's price and just want to lock it in from further changes between now and when you vest and can sell (in w...
by Tanelorn
Wed Jun 20, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hedging RSU's
Replies: 11
Views: 870

Re: Hedging RSU's

Thanks folks- will check on whether the company allows hedges. Re: selling calls, from what I know - that doesn't protect you from large downside risk, correct? Correct, it doesn't. With a sold call, you get paid a modest premium for giving up the upside over the strike price (assuming the stock ex...
by Tanelorn
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hedging RSU's
Replies: 11
Views: 870

Re: Hedging RSU's

Short the number of shares as your RSUs, if your company allows. Writing calls, suggested above, does nothing to prevent large downside losses. If you don't want to or can't short the stock, you could short QQQ as a proxy. You could buy at or near the money puts to lock in the current price, but tha...
by Tanelorn
Sat Jun 16, 2018 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 158
Views: 15721

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

goblue100 's patience looks like it's beginning to be rewarded with his short pick of Wins Financial Holdings (WINS). Highlighted last year for their sudden and surprising price rise (up 25x at one point), as well as limited revenues and possible China-based irregularities, WINS stock has fallen ov...
by Tanelorn
Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bogleheads, tell me about your 40's?
Replies: 179
Views: 38024

Re: Bogleheads, tell me about your 40's?

So many good observations and suggestions. Good food for thought.
by Tanelorn
Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 158
Views: 15721

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Chanos is a structural short seller. He teaches some investing classes, and in his finals, he asks the class to go through quarterly statements, including balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statements, and find fraud or very obvious obfuscations. And then he takes short positions based ...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 158
Views: 15721

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

You can see the current status of this comparison on the "data" tab of the contest spreadsheet - look in the bottom right corner. Our group is long about half a stock pick on average, so benchmarked against the broad market (VTI, +2.3%) you would expect our collective portfolio to be up about 1.2%....
by Tanelorn
Sun Jun 10, 2018 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 158
Views: 15721

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Whatever happened to that market efficiency argument? It's as true as it ever was ;). Maybe most of our contestants just got lucky? Wow, Tanelorn, what a pick: - undiversified (onlye 1 pick), - short (harder to pick shorts, especially in a bull market), - currently, 95% up: not much 'upside' left i...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jun 10, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 158
Views: 15721

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

you would think that the average fund in our group would be -2.5% since it is net long 0.5 (i.e. half) of a stock pick. Instead, our group is up +2%, showing we are outperforming our beta-adjusted benchmark by nearly 5%. Nice! You can see the current status of this comparison on the "data" tab of t...
by Tanelorn
Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 158
Views: 15721

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Congratulations to madpunster for his pick of Madrigal Pharmaceuticals. They recently reported very promising trial results for a common type of liver disease, which including marked average improvement, some complete cures, and no major side effects linked to the drug. MDGL shares have tripled, now...
by Tanelorn
Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dilemma: what if companies stopped going public?
Replies: 27
Views: 2830

Re: Dilemma: what if companies stopped going public?

Between the Sarbanes Oxley restrictions and other increasingly high costs of public company compliance, legal risks, etc, many of the better small companies are either not going public or trying to go private. On the other hand, private equity is awash in cheap capital looking to invest, and are hap...
by Tanelorn
Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do bond funds lose value while CDs do not?
Replies: 31
Views: 3523

Re: Do bond funds lose value while CDs do not?

CDs don't lose value, but that's just because they aren't marked to market. Instead, they have lost opportunity costs (and likely lost purchasing power too), so don't be deceived just because your balance only goes up. If you've got a 3% 5 year CD and a 3% 5 year treasury, they're basically the same...
by Tanelorn
Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interesting New Article Taking A Fresh Look At Sharpe’s Arithmetic Of Active Management
Replies: 14
Views: 1158

Re: Interesting New Article Taking A Fresh Look At Sharpe’s Arithmetic Of Active Management

This has been discussed a few times in the past. Sharpe's argument isn't very realistic, although it points in the right direction of low turnover and long holding periods to minimize trading costs. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=201300#p3085459 "In theory there is no differen...
by Tanelorn
Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 158
Views: 15721

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Tanelorn has further consolidated his lead as his single short pick, Ominto (OMNT), lost an additional 50% just today and was recently kicked off the stock exchange to the OTC "pink sheets" where disreputable stocks like this one belong. Tanelorn Capital investors are now up 85% for the year. Curre...
by Tanelorn
Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:36 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seeking Alpha pro membership, your thoughts
Replies: 15
Views: 1616

Re: Seeking Alpha pro membership, your thoughts

The current SA business model is to hide the author's articles after 10 days and charge you a monthly or annual fee to see the archives. I am not sure what they're charging now, but it was something like $100-200/year. If you find the articles useful, you can just read them now for free and save the...
by Tanelorn
Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for upcoming $3M windfall
Replies: 60
Views: 11632

Re: Strategy for upcoming $3M windfall

The tricky part is that I have a tenant on a fixed-term lease that expires 3/30/19, basically just before the 2/5 year deadline kicks in. I might just have to wait until then to sell. I'm sure it would be worth reviewing your lease terms and seeing if you could end that early. Saving several tens o...
by Tanelorn
Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for upcoming $3M windfall
Replies: 60
Views: 11632

Re: Strategy for upcoming $3M windfall

Thanks for the followup. Condo. I would prioritize selling the condo for tax reasons. You're up almost $150k and you'll lose $25-30k if that gets hit with taxes because you wait too long from when you lived there. Real estate sales can take some time, so start sooner rather than later. You don't hav...
by Tanelorn
Sat May 26, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do TSM funds contain REITs, BDCs, CEFs, Prefered stocks?
Replies: 2
Views: 420

Re: Do TSM funds contain REITs, BDCs, CEFs, Prefered stocks?

BDCs used to be, but they were making the ERs look bad (due to how the high BDC management fees get passed through in the RIC reporting), so the index providers kicked them out a few years ago.
by Tanelorn
Sun May 20, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 158
Views: 15721

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Tanelorn jumped into 1st place this week with a spectacular decline in his single short pick, Ominto (OMNT). Tanelorn Capital investors are up about 65% currently. Agggm's tech heavy Luna fund continues to perform well, holding in a solid 2nd place for some time, and currently up 40%. Current Stand...
by Tanelorn
Wed May 16, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Margin debt ratio
Replies: 39
Views: 2672

Re: Margin debt ratio

Thanks for clarifying your portfolio is mostly NVDA as I had assumed. I do realize the risk involved with the high leveraging of my portfolio. I'm going to be honest with you. You don't understand the risks. Margin is risky and best left to professionals and experienced traders. I am not an Anti-Mar...
by Tanelorn
Wed May 16, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Microcap Stock Screener
Replies: 21
Views: 1732

Re: Microcap Stock Screener

Sounds like a lot of work to me. What do you expect to gain over TSM or the microcap funds that already exist? Of course. Presumably he hopes to outperform, both TSM and existing microcap funds. Surely the latter can be done with enough effort - not only don't you have the 1-2% expense ratio of a f...
by Tanelorn
Tue May 15, 2018 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Margin debt ratio
Replies: 39
Views: 2672

Re: Margin debt ratio

tymishu wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 8:28 am
I don't know how you know stock B is $NVDA. It is. Stock A is $AAPL.
Am I understanding you correctly that your portfolio is 95% AAPL / 5% NVDA, or is it the other way around?
by Tanelorn
Tue May 15, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone have experience with 'baby bonds'
Replies: 5
Views: 654

Re: Anyone have experience with 'baby bonds'

Verizon 35-40 year bonds are paying around 5-5.5%, so this only pays a modest premium to that. Unlike many of these longer term bonds, if rates fall, this baby bond can be redeemed by the company and reissued with a lower rate. If rates rise however, you will be stuck with this bond paying 5.9% and ...