Search found 1526 matches

by Tanelorn
Thu Dec 06, 2018 1:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.
Replies: 52
Views: 5131

Re: The overwhelming majority lose in a zero-sum trading game.

Passive investors aren’t passive the sense Sharpe imagined them in his argument when it comes to real life. See this critique of the Sharpe argument and subsequent discussion. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=201300 That’s not to say there isn’t a lot of dispersion of outcomes, ...
by Tanelorn
Thu Nov 29, 2018 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are CDs taxed each year or at maturity?
Replies: 15
Views: 1985

Re: Are CDs taxed each year or at maturity?

CDs of 1 year or less are taxable when paid, usually all at maturity even if that’s in the following tax year from when you opened it. Those over 1 year are taxed on accrued interest each year, as reported on your bank 1099-INT, even though you have not yet received that interest.
by Tanelorn
Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Marijuana [Stock]
Replies: 50
Views: 4482

Re: Marijuana

If you really need to buy a bubble, CGC or TLRY.
by Tanelorn
Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: "consultation fee": standard for preventative colonoscopy?
Replies: 81
Views: 5631

Re: "consultation fee": standard for preventative colonoscopy?

It’s all fine when everything goes well. We have a fairly busy GI lab. Many patients are scheduled for the procedure by the family docs. The GI as the anesthesiologist are seeing the patient for the first time in many cases. Is that what you really want? Is $150 that big a deal? It’s not uncommon t...
by Tanelorn
Tue Nov 27, 2018 7:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do not sign a "confession of judgment" when getting a loan!
Replies: 3
Views: 1016

Re: Do not sign a "confession of judgment" when getting a loan!

I find it hard to believe that a sane person would voluntarily sign a document stating that they confess to any wrongdoing the other side accuses them of before even entering into the agreement, yet clearly many have. You aren’t confessing to wrong doing, you’re agreeing that you own the lender mon...
by Tanelorn
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Delisted, what now?
Replies: 10
Views: 1950

Re: Stock Delisted, what now?

Save the boo's, I know it was a mistake. Regardless, my one stock MiMedix (MDXG) was just delisted and is now OTC. My Vanguard balance sheet shows $0 dollars. I was planning to sell when I got back to even at around $9/share but now I don't even know what my options are. Anyone else ever gone throu...
by Tanelorn
Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 168
Views: 18467

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Sorry for the delayed updates. I fixed the new Sears OTC ticker and the Spectrum Brands original price (there was a complicated stock merger and Googles history was tracking the other stock which had a reverse split too, so that’s how it got the $700 adjusted price). Let me know if you see anything ...
by Tanelorn
Tue Oct 30, 2018 6:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Company being acquired what to do with stock?
Replies: 15
Views: 1480

Re: Company being acquired what to do with stock?

It sounds like the stock price has NOT gone up to the level of the new bid, based on OP’s comments. The SEZc examines any changes in your trading pattern around such transactions with great detail. My advice is to NOT make any changes in your open orders till the news is public. After that event, y...
by Tanelorn
Tue Oct 30, 2018 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Debunking Bonds in Taxable
Replies: 99
Views: 10491

Re: Debunking Bonds in Taxable

Look this is really easy from a hypothetical perspective. If bonds pay 0% but are taxed at a high rate (40% say), not too far from a few years ago, while stocks earn 10% or whatever annually and are taxed at some lower rate, how much tax do you incur with stocks in Roth and bonds in taxable? Zero do...
by Tanelorn
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to recognize loss on $0.00 call option
Replies: 7
Views: 616

Re: How to recognize loss on $0.00 call option

Your broker will have some paperwork to give away worthless securities to them. Not sure if it works for options, but it can’t hurt to try.
by Tanelorn
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Helping out with early onset Alzheimer's
Replies: 15
Views: 1797

Re: Helping out with early onset Alzheimer's

This is a good read about someone here dealing / coping with Alzheimer’s.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=141387
by Tanelorn
Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sin as investment strategy
Replies: 26
Views: 3585

Re: Sin as investment strategy

Of more interest to me is how Vanguard and other large index fund providers will react to pressure from special interest groups to use their shares to gimp various companies. I can definitely see a future where an ostensibly-anti-drunk-driving group starts a social media campaign for Vanguard and F...
by Tanelorn
Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Health Insurance (Non-ACA Options)
Replies: 80
Views: 5585

Re: Need Health Insurance (Non-ACA Options)

Thanks! This answer makes me feel much better about the 'worse'. I think it is not bad idea to go without insurance (or short term) for a year if you are healthy and you DO NOT have a risky life style. Perfect! Re-read this thread, which I linked previously, for more details on the costs of worst c...
by Tanelorn
Sun Oct 14, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Health Insurance (Non-ACA Options)
Replies: 80
Views: 5585

Re: Need Health Insurance (Non-ACA Options)

Broadly, your non-ACA options include: 3. Self insurance. Pros: very cheap, good incentives for healthy lifestyle; Cons: more risky, probably requires $1-2M for worst cases Can you explain how this cost is possible? Let's say I don't enroll in ACA this December this year and I stay without insuranc...
by Tanelorn
Fri Oct 12, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare premiums will be down an average of 1.5 percent next year
Replies: 39
Views: 4100

Re: Obamacare premiums will be down an average of 1.5 percent next year

It may be down after all, or at least depending on how you measure it. https://www.wsj.com/articles/price-of-obamacare-insurance-plans-takes-surprise-drop-1539257400 Average rates for popular health plans sold under the Affordable Care Act will fall 1.5% next year, according to the Trump administrat...
by Tanelorn
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Obamacare premiums will be down an average of 1.5 percent next year
Replies: 39
Views: 4100

Re: Obamacare premiums will be down an average of 1.5 percent next year

This guy has been tracking all the ACA rates basically as his part time job for years and he's got a 3-4% premium increase with the current laws as they stand.

http://acasignups.net/rate-hikes/2019

My rates are up much more, of course.
by Tanelorn
Sun Oct 07, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8446
Views: 1662941

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Thanks for the suggestion, but I don't think it works like that. During low volatility times, trading profits are just fine, and PA portfolio returns are fine too. But during high volatility times, trading profits are great so you’re not currently realizing your average compensation. Profiting from...
by Tanelorn
Sun Oct 07, 2018 8:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 8446
Views: 1662941

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I work in a counter-cyclical industry. The recession will boost my total compensation, I will get to buy stocks cheaper, and the net result will probably better retirement outcomes for me. Maybe you should be selling VIX futures as a hedge against low volatility periods that would result in smaller...
by Tanelorn
Fri Oct 05, 2018 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Shorting and buying a stock in two accounts (one is retirement account)
Replies: 19
Views: 1385

Re: Shorting and buying a stock in two accounts (one is retirement account)

Replacement shares regarding wash sales

http://fairmark.com/capgain/wash/wsreplac.htm

Just do an approximate hedge like I suggested and you won’t have to worry about this stuff. Of course there’s a lot of correlation in the QQQ components so they might all be up instead of down.
by Tanelorn
Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Shorting and buying a stock in two accounts (one is retirement account)
Replies: 19
Views: 1385

Re: Shorting and buying a stock in two accounts (one is retirement account)

You can do it, but if you’re hoping the stock goes up, why not just buy more if it? Remember if the stock goes down, you’ll have a worse tax problem than if you did nothing - now you’ll have taxable short term gains on your short profits and will have lost non-deductible money in your IRA. So basica...
by Tanelorn
Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Health Insurance (Non-ACA Options)
Replies: 80
Views: 5585

Re: Need Health Insurance (Non-ACA Options)

at least with ACA you don’t have to worry about pre-existing conditions. But with the ACA you do have to pay for other people’s preexisting conditions in your premiums, so if yours aren’t worse then average or if you’re not getting a subsidy based on your income, you’re getting a bad value. This is...
by Tanelorn
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 168
Views: 18467

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Congratulations to whodidntante for pulling into 1st place. His short Sears pick has reached -77% for the year, edging out short picks by Tanelorn and goblue100, closely behind with -76% and -75% stock results respectively. Sears is facing a small but potentially significant debt maturity in the mid...
by Tanelorn
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Health Insurance (Non-ACA Options)
Replies: 80
Views: 5585

Re: Need Health Insurance (Non-ACA Options)

Not sure about that guaranteed renewal? The new HHS regulations went into effect this week, so it’s probably too soon to actually get some of the improved short term plans. But now they can be 12 months instead of 3 and are allowed to offer guaranteed renewals for up to 3 years. I think you would n...
by Tanelorn
Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need Health Insurance (Non-ACA Options)
Replies: 80
Views: 5585

Re: Need Health Insurance (Non-ACA Options)

Broadly, your non-ACA options include: 1.short term insurance, which is getting a boost from the current administrations so you can get multi year guaranteed renewals. Pros: cheap, good networks; Cons: preexisting exclusions, banned in some states 2. Ministry or similar cost sharing plans. Pros: che...
by Tanelorn
Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC charges Musk with Fraud!
Replies: 117
Views: 10854

Re: SEC charges Musk with Fraud!!!

Up 10-15% premarket on the news, about $300 again.
by Tanelorn
Sat Sep 29, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 168
Views: 18467

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Time flies and the third quarter is already behind us. Despite all the noise about trade wars and tariffs, the US markets rose about 8% for Q3 after being basically flat for the first half of the year, now up a very respectable 10% on a total return basis (VTI, our equity benchmark for the contest, ...
by Tanelorn
Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC charges Musk with Fraud!
Replies: 117
Views: 10854

Re: SEC charges Musk with Fraud!!!

Apparently the SEC had offered a settlement and he turned it down at the last minute. More questionable decision making. https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-sued-by-the-sec-for-securities-fraud-1538079650 The SEC had crafted a settlement with Mr. Musk—approved by the agency’s commissioners—that i...
by Tanelorn
Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SEC charges Musk with Fraud!
Replies: 117
Views: 10854

Re: SEC charges Musk with Fraud!!!

Too bad some of those discussions didn't continue, some people might have been convinced of the risks they were taking owning the stock. This was the actionable one, and it still may be! How to short TSLA? Here's the SEC's lawsuit: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rESU9sUHniuA/v0 ...
by Tanelorn
Mon Sep 24, 2018 6:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Strategy for Maximizing College Financial Aid and Minimizing Taxes
Replies: 11
Views: 1360

Re: Strategy for Maximizing College Financial Aid and Minimizing Taxes

I guess it would have been better, possibly even all at once, to bite the bullet and sell their appreciated stock. At least the tax bill would come out of their parental assets, and it was coming eventually unless they wanted to own AAPL forever. But now that they’re just a year away, the income wil...
by Tanelorn
Sat Sep 22, 2018 1:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Puerto Rico as legal tax Haven?
Replies: 20
Views: 3765

Re: Puerto Rico as legal tax Haven?

My understanding was that the reason it was good for hedge funds was that their profits were mostly short term. The tax incentives only apply to holdings you make after moving there, so preexisting gains would still be US sourced and taxed, while new investments would get the better treatment.
by Tanelorn
Thu Sep 20, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Closed End Funds and Dividend Reinvestment Programs
Replies: 2
Views: 218

Re: Closed End Funds and Dividend Reinvestment Programs

Shares are just paper like dollars (or virtual paper, like most of the virtual dollars out there these days). Like the government and dollars, companies can pretty much print as many shares as they want as long as they set up their charter correctly. On a completely unrelated note, if you promise to...
by Tanelorn
Wed Sep 19, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What can go wrong in shorting Tilray, and can EU investors short it (and how?)
Replies: 29
Views: 1340

Re: What can go wrong in shorting Tilray, and can EU investors short it (and how?)

Only illiquid stocks get high stock lending fees. Not always, and not in this case. Lending rates are determined by supply and demand. Less liquid stocks may have less supply (but probably less demand too), but that doesn’t apply here. TLRY has around 75M shares and traded over $1B in daily volume ...
by Tanelorn
Sun Sep 16, 2018 7:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lock-up Period [intent for IPO - sign agreement not to sell my stake?]
Replies: 6
Views: 759

Re: Lock-up Period [intent for IPO - sign agreement not to sell my stake?]

OP - what did you end up doing? Did you sign, did they offer you anything, or are you going to be able to sell whenever you want?
by Tanelorn
Sun Sep 09, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just invested 10k into Space X (Well sorta..)
Replies: 22
Views: 2811

Re: Just invested 10k into Space X (Well sorta..)

Admittedly I’d much rather invest in SpaceX than Musk’s other less boring company (TSLA), but given his personality and leadership issues lately, are you sure you want to be investing in any of his ventures? And yes, you can buy pre-IPO SpaceX stock from employees and the like if you are accredited ...
by Tanelorn
Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?
Replies: 35
Views: 2579

Re: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?

The enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.
by Tanelorn
Thu Sep 06, 2018 6:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard - You'll need to sign up for security codes soon
Replies: 187
Views: 25423

Re: Vanguard - You'll need to sign up for security codes soon

I've asked a US friend via text to be my USA phone number on occasions such as yours. Is this a one time need? You can set the account configuration, once you get their code somehow, to only ask for it again if Vanguard doesn’t recognize the computer (the alternative is to ask every login, if you w...
by Tanelorn
Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lock-up Period [intent for IPO - sign agreement not to sell my stake?]
Replies: 6
Views: 759

Re: Lock-up Period [intent for IPO - sign agreement not to sell my stake?]

6 month lockups are standard for insiders after an IPO. However, given you've left the company and will have been gone for quite some time by the time the IPO happens, I would think that would not apply to you. I guess it applies if you sign it, but why would you? If it were me, I wouldn't sign it u...
by Tanelorn
Tue Sep 04, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fate of the Euro
Replies: 14
Views: 1742

Re: The Fate of the Euro

As some French general said in 1919 when Germany was forced to sign a humiliating Treaty of Versailles "this is not peace, this is a 20 year armistice". Ferdinand Foch , military theorist, in case you were looking for the citation, who had a number of other quotes of possible interest as well. Peac...
by Tanelorn
Tue Sep 04, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safeguarding Your Wealth From The Effects Of Cognitive Decline"
Replies: 52
Views: 5187

Re: "Safeguarding Your Wealth From The Effects Of Cognitive Decline"

damjam wrote:
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:04 am
The thought of cognitive decline becoming an issue keeps me up at night.
That’s a risk factor for cognitive decline! Make sure you get a good night’s rest.
by Tanelorn
Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do You Purchase "Medical Evacuation Insurance" When You Travel?
Replies: 176
Views: 10308

Re: Do You Purchase "Medical Evacuation Insurance" When You Travel?

It would seem to me that even a narrow network plan (ACA) would cover emergency care while traveling outside your home area. If you are in a neighboring state, and you want non-emergency care - you could safely travel back. ACA plans are poorly suited to people who travel regularly or have multiple...
by Tanelorn
Mon Sep 03, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do You Purchase "Medical Evacuation Insurance" When You Travel?
Replies: 176
Views: 10308

Re: Do You Purchase "Medical Evacuation Insurance" When You Travel?

Thanks for all the good info and shared experiences. I do worry many of the people who had something bad enough happen abroad to really want these types of services / coverage didn’t make it home alive to post about it here. Don’t take the replies here, “seems expensive, never needed it”, as entirel...
by Tanelorn
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this ETF safe from liquidation? RZV SCV fund
Replies: 6
Views: 623

Re: Is this ETF safe from liquidation? RZV SCV fund

$200M is assets for RZV is probably fine, although if they were to become less popular the sponsor might pull the plug (say down by 1/2 to 3/4 in terms of assets). In an up market, this is less likely; in a down market, you shouldn’t mind realizing your loss in liquidation and redeploying to a simil...
by Tanelorn
Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2018 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 168
Views: 18467

Re: 2018 Hedge Fund contest

Tanelorn, I'm chasing you with the second worst stock. I saw that. Congrats to whodidntante on his bet against Sears. SHLD is now -68% for the year, putting him in second place. Sears recently announced nearly 50 additional store closures and seems to have only found the CEO’s hedge fund as a buyer...
by Tanelorn
Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SALT: IRS issues proposed regs for State Tax Credit for Donation
Replies: 62
Views: 6199

Re: SALT: IRS issues proposed regs for State Tax Credit for Donation

Thanks for the update. The general result seems unsurprising.
by Tanelorn
Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate dropping like a rock in U.K. - can the U.S. be far behind?
Replies: 68
Views: 12422

Re: Real estate dropping like a rock in U.K. - can the U.S. be far behind?

NYC housing seems to be getting weaker, especially on the higher end where tax impacts have made them relatively less attractive. I’m hearing good things about FL though, and some hedge funds are relocating there from the N.Y./NJ/CT area. As for the U.K., perhaps the Russian “meddling” in their real...
by Tanelorn
Wed Aug 15, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 26148

Re: Invest in Tesla?

This WSJ article has lots of details, beyond just the headline that the SEC has a formal investigation of Tesla and are subpoenaing various senior executives. https://www.wsj.com/articles/sec-sends-subpoena-to-tesla-in-probe-over-musk-tweets-1534366752?ru=yahoo?mod=yahoo_itp&yptr=yahoo The big insti...