Search found 2517 matches

by saltycaper
Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Multifactor Funds Launch
Replies: 16
Views: 1611

Re: Vanguard US Multifactor Funds Launch

sunnywindy wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:49 am
I wasn't searching for it, but I just noticed...
It's okay, sunnywindy. No need to distance yourself from your own thread. As you can see, it's already pretty good!
by saltycaper
Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding an ETF by it's Name
Replies: 20
Views: 488

Re: Understanding an ETF by it's Name

Total Bond Market does not include TIPS, high-yield, munis, etc.
by saltycaper
Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding an ETF by it's Name
Replies: 20
Views: 488

Re: Understanding an ETF by it's Name

The dictionary definition of "international" is: 1. Of, relating to, or involving two or more nations: an international commission; international affairs. 2. Extending across or transcending national boundaries: international fame. An "international" investment is one that crosses a border. Another...
by saltycaper
Mon Feb 19, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding an ETF by it's Name
Replies: 20
Views: 488

Re: Understanding an ETF by it's Name

nisiprius wrote:
Mon Feb 19, 2018 4:58 pm

The only issue is the implicit U.S. point of view, in not bothering to name which nation is the assumed home nation of the investor.
That's precisely the point. :happy
by saltycaper
Mon Feb 19, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding an ETF by it's Name
Replies: 20
Views: 488

Re: Understanding an ETF by it's Name

^I appreciate the context. I think it provides value to what could have been a meandering and pointless thread. Maybe there's conflicting guidance because some people have been on international flights that depart from the US, while some of the others who haven't think they need to drive to Canada o...
by saltycaper
Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding an ETF by it's Name
Replies: 20
Views: 488

Re: Understanding an ETF by it's Name

I will take the opposite side on this. This falls into SEC guidance. International is ex-USA. World is international and USA. Domestic only does not have to referenced, sizable non-USA should be referenced. Good to know it's not the fund's fault but rather the SEC's fault. Thanks. On the other hand...
by saltycaper
Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?
Replies: 37
Views: 2137

Re: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?

An inquisitive 18-year-old who is a voracious reader should enjoy Archetypes of Wisdom: An Introduction to Philosophy , by Douglas J. Soccio, which may be re-read from time to time to help her navigate the collection of myopic opinions that sometimes inform investment books. Perhaps she has another ...
by saltycaper
Mon Feb 19, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding an ETF by it's Name
Replies: 20
Views: 488

Re: Understanding an ETF by it's Name

Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund <--- not "total" because it does not invest in companies outside of the US

Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund <--- does not invest in the US even though the US is among international markets
by saltycaper
Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it "cute" to invest in sector funds?
Replies: 23
Views: 1249

Re: Is it "cute" to invest in sector funds?

Yep. Totally adorbs. Sector funds are often used to play the economic cycle. Good luck with that. If someone is reluctant to invest in stocks at all or wants a very conservative asset allocation and couldn't otherwise be convinced to hold the total market, I think defensive sectors like consumer sta...
by saltycaper
Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's-The Latest Casualty in the ETF Fee War—Objective Advice-Mentions Vanguard ETFs and new TD policy
Replies: 11
Views: 1255

Re: Barron's-The Latest Casualty in the ETF Fee War—Objective Advice-Mentions Vanguard ETFs and new TD policy

I think we can all agree that if the goal is a stock market index, then there are plenty of options with ratios in the 5-15 bps range that are perfect. Most of the quibbling over which TSM index is perfect or a 1-2 bps difference are academic. With that, it's one thing to say a financial advisor sh...
by saltycaper
Sun Feb 18, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I reduced my exposure to US stocks before the correction.
Replies: 36
Views: 3153

Re: I reduced my exposure to US stocks before the correction.

It is estimated that 80% of global growth will take place in EM over the next 10 years, hence my 20% on EM. Even if accurate, this doesn't necessarily mean EM stocks will outperform non-EM stocks by such a large margin, or at all. For instance, US and developed ex-US companies do a lot of business ...
by saltycaper
Sun Feb 18, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: premium bonds
Replies: 7
Views: 398

Re: premium bonds

I own some bonds with pretty high coupons (issued 1990s), and none of them come close to a premium like that. I question the accuracy or meaning of the number.
by saltycaper
Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: accidental overweight of US vs International?
Replies: 4
Views: 496

Re: accidental overweight of US vs International?

my worry here is that those of us who have a market cap weighting of US vs international may actually be overweighting international by accident. if a US company is deriving half of its revenue from US and ex-US, wouldn't we expect that company to be classified as both, not US? Weightings are not d...
by saltycaper
Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Using math notation in Bogleheads posts
Replies: 10
Views: 1015

Re: Using math notation in Bogleheads posts

I would not rely on end-users taking any action. Even people interested in the math might not be so interested in fiddling with their browser. Perhaps the easiest way for readers would be to post the input text as text (to facilitate copying, easy changes by others, and permanence in case images are...
by saltycaper
Sat Feb 17, 2018 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's-The Latest Casualty in the ETF Fee War—Objective Advice-Mentions Vanguard ETFs and new TD policy
Replies: 11
Views: 1255

Re: Barron's-The Latest Casualty in the ETF Fee War—Objective Advice-Mentions Vanguard ETFs and new TD policy

drk wrote:
Sat Feb 17, 2018 5:06 pm

I don't think you'll find any disagreement around these parts.
I think I misread the intention of your post. :beer
by saltycaper
Sat Feb 17, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's-The Latest Casualty in the ETF Fee War—Objective Advice-Mentions Vanguard ETFs and new TD policy
Replies: 11
Views: 1255

Re: Barron's-The Latest Casualty in the ETF Fee War—Objective Advice-Mentions Vanguard ETFs and new TD policy

This is a huge concern. If I was a personal financial advisor, the first piece of advice I would want to give people is to have them invested in Vanguard funds, but if Vanguard wants to turn around and put me out of business (for example, through PAS), why would I do it? The only rational thing to ...
by saltycaper
Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's-The Latest Casualty in the ETF Fee War—Objective Advice-Mentions Vanguard ETFs and new TD policy
Replies: 11
Views: 1255

Re: Barron's-The Latest Casualty in the ETF Fee War—Objective Advice-Mentions Vanguard ETFs and new TD policy

If the hints of Vanguard's one-size-fits-all approach that appear on the forum are true, I would think it would be easy for a financial advisor to set themselves apart. That is, if there truly was any value they could offer. If they can't offer any additional value, I fail to see the problem.
by saltycaper
Sat Feb 17, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Torn between Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab
Replies: 127
Views: 8782

Re: Torn between Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab

Did we ever come to a consensus on the $25 charge for each mutual fund in an account? My understanding was they do still charge $25 for each mutual fund if it is a certain type of account (i.e. solo 401k, SEP) and you’re under the $50k status. Can anyone confirm this? They do charge the fee for the...
by saltycaper
Fri Feb 16, 2018 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 59
Views: 4407

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

I did not pick the "foolish" professionally designed "Lazy" Portfolios," The highly respected Mr. Farrell did. "Foolish" or not, it's nice if you are in the winning Three-Fund Portfolio . :happy Let's move on. Best wishes. Taylor You are comparing the portfolios by referencing them. You are doing s...
by saltycaper
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6610

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

In your example, what is known is the probability of the possible outcomes. My probability is rusty, but I think the probability of getting exactly 10 heads in 20 flips is (20 choose 10)/(2^20), or approximately 0.1762. ... Of course market returns don't have known probabilities in the same way, bu...
by saltycaper
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6610

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

"Nobody knows enough" is a better expression. Flipping a coin, you know the probabilities and the rules. Predicting the stock market, you not only don't know the probabilities, but you don't know the rules, and the rules CHANGE now and again. I think it's important to determine the goal in doing th...
by saltycaper
Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 59
Views: 4407

Re: What is the evidence against slice and dice?

What is the evidence that this might not work well in the future? The easiest way to see it might not work is to look at other times that taking risk has not been rewarded. If big risks (like equities vs. bonds) have gone long stretches without being rewarded, I think comparatively smaller risks (l...
by saltycaper
Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the evidence against slice and dice?
Replies: 59
Views: 4407

Re: Paul or Jack: Place Your Bets

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:23 pm

* The eight professional MarketWatch portfolios, listed in my earlier post, put Mr. Merriman's portfolio dead last.for 1-year; 3-years; 5 -years and 10-years. The Three-Fund Portfolio leads the pack.
False comparison, yet again. You've already lost the debate.
by saltycaper
Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6610

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

People have been making these kinds of bearish predictions for the last 10 years. Since 2008 SPY has returned over 7% real. A period that arguably includes the worst downturn since 1929. Nobody knows nothin. A fair coin is going to be flipped 20 times. My estimate is that it will come up heads 10 t...
by saltycaper
Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Inflation Works (NYT)
Replies: 21
Views: 2146

Re: How Inflation Works (NYT)

TOJ wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:04 am

My mistake. How many years has it been below target?
I think it was below target in 2009-2010 and 2013-2016.
by saltycaper
Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Inflation Works (NYT)
Replies: 21
Views: 2146

Re: How Inflation Works (NYT)

TOJ wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:45 am
What I don't understand is how we've had 0 inflation for quite awhile now...
We haven't had zero percent inflation. It was negative for a while in 2009 and near zero/negative in 2015, but otherwise it has been positive.
by saltycaper
Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P and the Ten
Replies: 7
Views: 832

Re: The S&P and the Ten

There was all this talk the last few weeks about interest rates and the stock market and I yawned. I was just killing time fooling around with Yahoo finance charts and put this together. My yawn went to a big OMG. Are percentage changes in yields really meaningful? Isn't it the absolute change (wha...
by saltycaper
Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The S&P and the Ten
Replies: 7
Views: 832

Re: The S&P and the Ten

Pajamas wrote:
Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:52 pm
The line looks orange to me. The bars look red.
Sienna orange to be more specific.

So, what's up, Doc?
by saltycaper
Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6610

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

So far nobody has pointed out any major flaws in the article's methodology, but there have been a number of generally negative comments, which I can only take to mean most people either have not read the article or they have read the article but are uncomfortable with its conclusions.
by saltycaper
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6610

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

Those using the valuations have not universally said that they would mean revert. But look at Larry Swedroe, for instance, who has been saying for years that high valuations would lead to lower returns going forward, which is the same conclusion as the author here. His prediction may eventually com...
by saltycaper
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6610

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

You don't have to use valuations at all to make a prediction of future market returns. They could be ignored altogether. One could focus on earnings growth instead, for instance, or a number of other factors. Sorry, but that's just not true. You must include valuations. You can't assume valuations ...
by saltycaper
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6610

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

It's not "centered on mean reversion of valuations," but the author is still trying to use valuations to predict future returns. Almost since the inception of this idea back in 1988, valuations haven't been a great predictor of future returns. Not really. He's trying to be as valuation neutral as y...
by saltycaper
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6610

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

This whole idea of real returns being close to half their long-term average is centered around valuations, but U.S. returns over the last 26 years and counting fly in the face of this logic. Perhaps you are making a general comment, but the article's 4% number is not centered on mean reversion of v...
by saltycaper
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns
Replies: 124
Views: 6610

Re: philosophicaleconomics predicts 4% real equity returns

Yes. He seems to be talking out of both sides. A 4% ROI from the S&P has to be mostly BS, as most others of us like to point out. 4% long term return from equities isn't any better than keeping cash in the bank from 2004-2007 leading up to the recession. So why are we even here, Mr. Naysayer OP? -T...
by saltycaper
Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 86
Views: 6658

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

At Fido, I think you just need $1,000 per bond to place the order. Can't you just do that and then top off any difference before settlement? Haven't tried it, so not sure, but according to https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=47661#p626112 at Vanguard you can place the auction order wit...
by saltycaper
Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short Term Tax Free Bond ETF
Replies: 9
Views: 748

Re: Short Term Tax Free Bond ETF

I don't know that Vanguard offers their short-term tax-exempt funds as ETFs, and I'm not sure they would make sense for someone in the 15% bracket (12% now?), but what about something like Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH)? Does TD not have money market funds that pay more than 0%? Vanguard Pr...
by saltycaper
Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5576
Views: 1262080

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

My neighbor, who has a PhD in Economics from Harvard, was on TV. When asked if another depression could happen he said yes it could. That put the fear of God in me. I need to credit this site with helping me get through this period. What would you think of this site if we still hadn't recovered? (H...
by saltycaper
Tue Feb 13, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 86
Views: 6658

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

So for example if you want to buy 10 bonds or $10,000 worth of principle you should make sure you have at least $10,003.60 in your account. Wouldn't that be at most ? :wink: I've always had more than enough in my account, so I don't know how this works, but... At Fido, I think you just need $1,000 ...
by saltycaper
Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Attention Sqawk Box viewers
Replies: 16
Views: 1490

Re: Attention Sqawk Box viewers

montanagirl wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 2:39 pm

Mainly, I watch because it's the most grownup thing on commercial TV. Which isn't saying much. :wink:
Try Bloomberg TV.
by saltycaper
Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Attention Sqawk Box viewers
Replies: 16
Views: 1490

Re: Attention Sqawk Box viewers

I haven't really watched much since the days of Mark Haines. I find most of the current characters shrill, irritating, and generally a joke. David Faber is okay the hours he's there. Market operations discussion can be interesting sometimes, but that usually didn't happen much during the pre-market ...
by saltycaper
Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Brokerage recommendation
Replies: 11
Views: 543

Re: Brokerage recommendation

...seeking firm that has wide variety of mutual funds... Don't pick a firm because it has a wide variety of funds. You're only going to need a handful of them. Determine the assets you want to invest in, then pick the best funds to achieve your desired asset allocation, then pick the firm that offe...
by saltycaper
Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Go back to school ?
Replies: 6
Views: 497

Re: Go back to school ?

If you didn't do it and you plowed ahead in your current positions and everything otherwise worked out as you currently anticipate, do you think you would regret not doing it? If you said you were going to quit your job to go back to school full time for a position you expected to top out at 40K, ye...
by saltycaper
Tue Feb 13, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard advice--I'm confused
Replies: 30
Views: 3662

Re: Taking unnecessary risk

Missedtheboat: The most important thing for retirees to know: When you have enough to retire, don't risk in stocks (or anything else) what you cannot afford to lose. This implies you expect stocks to lose all value. It also implies if you have just enough to retire, you should not invest in stocks ...
by saltycaper
Mon Feb 12, 2018 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. & International Allocation
Replies: 56
Views: 6322

Re: U.S. & International Allocation

That's a strong statement. I'm not so sure. From what others have reported, they seem to take an "our way or go away" approach. If you had a 61/39 allocation and they insisted on moving to 60/40, I hardly think they are trying to make a strong statement that there would be any meaningful difference...
by saltycaper
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip
Replies: 27
Views: 2700

Re: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip

Toons wrote:
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:46 pm
I believe In What Bogle says.
"Nobody Knows Nothing"
Excellent In 3 Words.
:happy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0gQiz0pCyI
No rational person would invest if they truly believed this.
by saltycaper
Mon Feb 12, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip
Replies: 27
Views: 2700

Re: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip

Bogleheads should assume that our portfolios will fall about 50% of its stock allocation in the next bad bear market. I think this is not the best way to look at it. In the absence of any other reason, the 50% number is based on past performance, but the market usually does not drop by 50%. It's no...
by saltycaper
Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are REITs essentially taboo for years now with rising rates?
Replies: 55
Views: 5212

Re: Are REITs essentially taboo for years now with rising rates?

I would suspect holding both a REIT fund and a Small Value fund may be a bit high allocation as REITs are 20% +- (I may be incorrect) of the Small Value fund? I think that's too high. Morningstar small-cap value category indicates an average of about 8% in "real estate." Vanguard's fund has a bit m...
by saltycaper
Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: No DFA Forums?
Replies: 8
Views: 897

Re: No DFA Forums?

Have you tried posting your question here?
by saltycaper
Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?
Replies: 33
Views: 2924

Re: Just how safe is a short-term corporate bond fund?

What wouldn't be acceptable is bigger losses. i.e. if there's a realistic chance of a 10% or greater loss, that starts to defeat the purpose of the emergency fund, much of which is helping me sleep well at night during the nastiest of times. Which brings us to the heart of my question: what are the...
by saltycaper
Sat Feb 10, 2018 4:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS vs Bonds again!
Replies: 3
Views: 602

Re: TIPS vs Bonds again!

The "problem" is not so much that you bought a bond fund instead of an individual bond but rather that your bonds have a long duration (very sensitive to changes in yield) and are subject to large price swings compared to bonds with shorter durations. I myself would not hold a lot of long-term bonds...