Search found 2627 matches

by saltycaper
Wed May 09, 2018 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Professor Andrew Lo interviews John Bogle
Replies: 10
Views: 1959

Re: Professor Andrew Lo interviews John Bogle

The rigor of the excuse is lacking. Here's mine: I think he meant, "...and interestingly enough, unlike [the answer to] your question, ..."; i.e., "My answer to your question is not very interesting, but here's something interesting."
by saltycaper
Wed May 09, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Build a retaining wall ?
Replies: 19
Views: 1677

Re: Build a retaining wall ?

Thanks for the feedback. I agree our situation is not that simple. I'm going to get a couple of landscaping companies to come out and give us some ideas along with estimates. Not a bad idea, but do your own research too. Under what circumstances are permits required? Under what circumstances are en...
by saltycaper
Thu May 03, 2018 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar--Manager Exit Triggers Downgrade At Giant Vanguard Fund(Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade )
Replies: 10
Views: 1661

Re: Morningstar--Manager Exit Triggers Downgrade At Giant Vanguard Fund(Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade )

I held it for a bit as a TLH partner for the short-term corporate bond index fund, but sold recently as it had fulfilled its job. If I still held it, I would not care about this change. How badly can a team of semi-experienced Vanguard managers mess up a bond fund that holds only short-term investme...
by saltycaper
Thu May 03, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Minimum portfolio size for individual treasury bonds
Replies: 10
Views: 994

Re: Minimum portfolio size for individual treasury bonds

We may not be on the same page here. Both a bond fund and a bond portfolio carries risk, and the risk is probably similar. ... Then I think we're at least in the same volume, if not the same page. I wasn't sure if the OP took your point to be, avoid a ladder because there is reinvestment risk, whic...
by saltycaper
Thu May 03, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Bond Funds Do You Use Other Than Total Bond Market??
Replies: 10
Views: 1347

Re: What Bond Funds Do You Use Other Than Total Bond Market??

If by being young you have decided to hold a high stock allocation, I'd consider doing the reverse and using a Treasury bond fund, omitting corporate bonds entirely. If you must add corporate bonds though, and if you want intermediate term, the fund you mention is the fund I would use. Note it does ...
by saltycaper
Thu May 03, 2018 3:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Minimum portfolio size for individual treasury bonds
Replies: 10
Views: 994

Re: Minimum portfolio size for individual treasury bonds

I assume that as you get coupons and bonds mature you will be reinvesting, not withdrawing for consumption. So you are going to face reinvestment risk, which is a part of interest rate risk. Thanks, that's a helpful point. I hadn't thought of that. It's a good point in that it helps you avoid makin...
by saltycaper
Wed May 02, 2018 4:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Agressive factor Investing
Replies: 44
Views: 4488

Re: Agressive factor Investing

I was wondering if more experienced factor investors could chime in and help me assemble an agressive factor portfolio with the options that are at my disposal. I'm interested in what you and others think "aggressive" means in the context of factor-based investing. An aggressive portfolio is usuall...
by saltycaper
Tue May 01, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 35
Views: 5369

Re: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It

My observation that bond funds that include corporates do better over time than treasury only bond funds extends over a period of many years. I was seeing this even before the 2008-2009 financial crisis. I would hope so, but the only situation in which that should matter, even after taking risk-adj...
by saltycaper
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed income windfall allocation: lump sum or steadily buy?
Replies: 43
Views: 2828

Re: Fixed income windfall allocation: lump sum or steadily buy?

OK so it's recommended to move 100% into fixed income right away, just the same as equities. I just didn't know how it was addressed that if bought all at once you won't have much liquid for a while. If Treasuries are part of your fixed income allocation, they are one of the most liquid investments...
by saltycaper
Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed income windfall allocation: lump sum or steadily buy?
Replies: 43
Views: 2828

Re: Fixed income windfall allocation: lump sum or steadily buy?

But what about fixed income? I could be totally happy throwing 100% of our fixed income allocation into our chosen options right away, but what's the wisdom regarding this? If you have an asset allocation you have chosen, no wisdom is required to excuse yourself to immediately move to that asset al...
by saltycaper
Fri Apr 27, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 35
Views: 5369

Re: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It

Let's try an out-of-sample test. Let's pick a Canadian investor willing to invest hist portfolio 50/50 into Canadian stocks and bonds. That's not an out-of-sample test. That's just making different observations altogether. Let's say that it would have been more appropriate to call it a counterexamp...
by saltycaper
Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It
Replies: 35
Views: 5369

Re: Larry Swedroe: Liquidity Risk Not Worth It

longinvest wrote:
Fri Apr 27, 2018 1:27 pm

Let's try an out-of-sample test. Let's pick a Canadian investor willing to invest hist portfolio 50/50 into Canadian stocks and bonds.
That's not an out-of-sample test. That's just making different observations altogether.
by saltycaper
Thu Apr 26, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ikea Quality
Replies: 37
Views: 3121

Re: Ikea Quality

The Kallax has been indestructible in material and construction. Generally, pieces made of pine are more fragile. I wouldn't want to move them, the wood is naturally soft and susceptible to gouging, and the finish is less resilient. I'd go with the cheaper fiberboard lines over pine even if the pine...
by saltycaper
Thu Apr 26, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rising Interest and bond funds
Replies: 19
Views: 2342

Re: Rising Interest and bond funds

Well lets say my bond fund has a 2 year avg duration. So I am told that if I hold it thru 2 years then in general I should not have much of a principal loss. However, what if in year 1 interest rates rise 3 times? And then in year 2, interest rates rise another 3 times? Doesn't the NAV of the fund ...
by saltycaper
Tue Apr 24, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with Bond Funds
Replies: 6
Views: 766

Re: Need help with Bond Funds

It's a small decision not to be stressed over and something you can change down the road if you wish. I'd use an intermediate-term Treasury fund in your portfolio. Total Bond is okay though. Your 10/10 idea also is okay.
by saltycaper
Mon Apr 02, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $20,000 book - what to do with it
Replies: 34
Views: 6081

Re: $20,000 book - what to do with it

I wonder if a cigar humidor would also work; they're the right size, and are designed to maintain a specific level of humidity. A proper humidity level for cigars is too humid for books. While that can be controlled somewhat, a small enclosed space with even a slightly too high humidity level is pr...
by saltycaper
Mon Apr 02, 2018 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6752
Views: 1468995

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

if this jagged staccato decline keeps continuing thru 2018 are they still going to be bumping up interest rates 2-3 more times? When I look at Federal Reserve's objectives in conducting monetary policy I don't see anything about the "stock market" in there. https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money...
by saltycaper
Mon Apr 02, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6752
Views: 1468995

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

if this jagged staccato decline keeps continuing thru 2018 are they still going to be bumping up interest rates 2-3 more times? When I look at Federal Reserve's objectives in conducting monetary policy I don't see anything about the "stock market" in there. https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/money...
by saltycaper
Mon Apr 02, 2018 7:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: $20,000 book - what to do with it
Replies: 34
Views: 6081

Re: $20,000 book - what to do with it

But they don't seem willing to keep the book unless I sign away my rights to it by gifting it to them. That's usually how it works. Indefinite loans are headaches for institutions--insurance, accessibility, death of the person loaning the item, etc. Most institutions do not exist to serve the needs...
by saltycaper
Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bond dividend question
Replies: 2
Views: 365

Re: International Bond dividend question

I don't own this fund, but according to the annual report, it has not had any distributions due to realized capital gains. It does say, on page 128: For tax purposes, the fund treats its forward currency contracts as hedging the currency it receives or will receive from the bonds in which it invests...
by saltycaper
Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unanswered: Clements Highlights 4 Questions of Much Debate
Replies: 27
Views: 2845

Re: Unanswered: Clements Highlights 4 Questions of Much Debate

Pajamas wrote:
Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:49 am
iceport wrote:
Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:46 am
THERE ARE MANY FINANCIAL DEBATES that shouldn’t be debates at all.
I DISAGREE VEHEMENTLY.
You're WRONG.
by saltycaper
Sat Mar 31, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Very Small Amounts Daily
Replies: 22
Views: 3385

Re: Investing Very Small Amounts Daily

Most funds have a minimum initial purchase amount, say $3,000 or $10,000, and then a separate minimum additional investment amount, oftentimes just $1. So after you make the initial purchase, it is possible to invest very small amounts frequently. I take it this is not a case where you have a large ...
by saltycaper
Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 11618

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

It is true statement that people with various cognitive biases use as a justification for tilting their portfolio; however, the argument is a non sequitur. If doing business internationally was the same thing as being a foreign company, the other arguments regarding the increased risks of investing ...
by saltycaper
Fri Mar 30, 2018 9:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?
Replies: 69
Views: 5334

Re: Is backtesting worthless? Are there ANY insights you can get from it?

Whenever backtesting is brought up people remind us that the past performance isn't indicative of future results. It is not worthless, not even to the people who make this claim. When someone says this, oftentimes what they really mean is backtesting is not valid for supporting any argument other t...
by saltycaper
Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 100% VTSAX (+ bonds) the best portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 1971

Re: Is 100% VTSAX (+ bonds) the best portfolio?

JustinR wrote:
Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:15 pm

Is a 2-fund portfolio actually the best thing to do?
It is not hard to find portfolios that have outperformed, if that is your definition of "best." So, no.
by saltycaper
Thu Mar 29, 2018 9:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wash sale question- are ITOT and VTI Substantially Identical?
Replies: 60
Views: 4149

Re: Wash sale question- are ITOT and VTI Substantially Identical?

To me, the ER, index, fund company, and number of holdings are not relevant. If most of the weighted holdings overlap, the funds are substantially identical. Further, if I was in a position to audit someone, and they tried to argue otherwise, I'd take that as an indication they might be lax in their...
by saltycaper
Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Other than simplicity/convenience, what's the case to be made for a total bond portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 1169

Re: Other than simplicity/convenience, what's the case to be made for a total bond portfolio?

...they have equity-like risk... Just to be clear: it is "equity-like" (stock-like) in that their performance is related to the company's business success or problems, and they are likely to go down at the same time equities (stocks) go down. But they have perhaps a fifth as much of that risk as st...
by saltycaper
Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Other than simplicity/convenience, what's the case to be made for a total bond portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 1169

Re: Other than simplicity/convenience, what's the case to be made for a total bond portfolio?

In so doing, I am skirting the simplicity of only holding something like BND. Other than making my portfolio a bit more complicated, is there any downside to my approach? I understand there's a bit more risk...but that's intentional on my part to get higher yield. I do not think simplicity has anyt...
by saltycaper
Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard in the WSJ today
Replies: 57
Views: 8275

Re: Vanguard in the WSJ today

I do not have a WSJ subscription, but I was still able to read the article on wsj.com:

Is Vanguard’s Success a Problem? Some Customers Think So
by saltycaper
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: A lot of heavy hitters this morning
Replies: 244
Views: 21153

Re: A lot of heavy hitters this morning

Don’t feel demoralized. Look at it this way - if husband and wife work for even just 20 years and just save normally, they would save Husband 401(k) = 18,500 Husband match = 6,000 Wife 401(k) = 18,500 Wife match = 6,000 2x Backdoor Roth = 11,000 529 = 6,000 (say only $500 per month) HSA = 6,900 Tot...
by saltycaper
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions on TIPS
Replies: 25
Views: 2126

Re: Questions on TIPS

I don't know but should think that if auction demand shifted issuance would also shift, but we don't know how those decisions, about how much of what security to issue when, are made. Surely it must at least in part be based on cost of funds. Indeed. Though I imagine it could be viciously deconstru...
by saltycaper
Wed Mar 28, 2018 3:00 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: A lot of heavy hitters this morning
Replies: 244
Views: 21153

Re: A lot of heavy hitters this morning

I associate "heavy hitter" with the posters who display superior investment knowledge, take an objective and logical approach to assessing information, and have the ability to communicate clearly and concisely, not someone who just has a lot of money. (I would not take advice from someone just becau...
by saltycaper
Wed Mar 28, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Target or multi fund?
Replies: 15
Views: 857

Re: Target or multi fund?

I haven't read that other discussion beyond the question, but that's my exact question. Thanks! Basically I'm asking if there's a substantial advantage to what Thrifty PhD is outlining. If, based on what Thrifty wrote, you see a potential advantage to the multi-fund approach, then the multi-fund ap...
by saltycaper
Fri Mar 23, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How know whether stock is international?
Replies: 16
Views: 1284

Re: How know whether stock is international?

There are many large transnational corporations these days. It depends, I'm afraid, on what you mean by international. People seem to be surprised when stocks whose corporate headquarters are domiciled elsewhere are included in a US stock market fund when they're listed in the US. They're in the US...
by saltycaper
Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How know whether stock is international?
Replies: 16
Views: 1284

Re: How know whether stock is international?

How do you know whether a stock is an international stock? For example Rio Tinto plc (RIO) is an Australian-British multinational but it seems to be traded on the NYSE. Is it an international stock? RIO is a probably an ADR . It is an "international" (ex-US) stock because the company is based outsi...
by saltycaper
Fri Mar 23, 2018 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do I need title insurance?
Replies: 43
Views: 4470

Re: Do I need title insurance?

lived in three homes (still in #3) and I presumed that the need for title insurance - including new ones for re-fi - were mandatory, never questioned it It is mandatory if you get a mortgage. This must be by state, because, even with a mortgage, we have always been asked by our RE attorney IF we wa...
by saltycaper
Fri Mar 23, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2223
Views: 1387355

Re: [US vs. International allocation in a Three-fund portfolio]

Saltycaper, on your interpretation, the strategy is inconsistent because it doesn’t define a single “perfect” set of allocations, bond funds cannot serve to moderate equity risk unless they contain zero corporate bonds, the strategy fails because it is possible for investors to implement it poorly....
by saltycaper
Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Affect of Rising Interest Rates on Vanguard Total Bond Index
Replies: 43
Views: 8382

Re: Affect of Rising Interest Rates on Vanguard Total Bond Index

Bear in mind the difference between nominal and real returns, and that only real returns matter... Any discussion on bonds and interest rate is incomplete without considering underlying inflation. While those charts above seem impressive they are missing a critical piece of information which is the...
by saltycaper
Fri Mar 23, 2018 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions on TIPS
Replies: 25
Views: 2126

Re: Questions on TIPS

I have the impression that in practice this premium is minimal. I don't have a set of data. We should also be sure to make apples to apples comparisons regarding credit quality and interest rate risk (duration). That comparison may not be completely straightforward. There may be other anomalies in ...
by saltycaper
Fri Mar 23, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Questions on TIPS
Replies: 25
Views: 2126

Re: Questions on TIPS

I would think that if inflation is "normal" (as expected), then nominal bonds and TIPS - both of which have expected inflation priced in - would perform equally. It is true that in recent years inflation has been below prior expectations, in which case nominal bonds have outpaced TIPS. Whether this...
by saltycaper
Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2223
Views: 1387355

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

FYI - I split a discussion started by saltycaper into a stand-alone thread. There were enough posts to merit a separate discussion. See: [US vs. International allocation in a Three-fund portfolio] I did not start a discussion on US vs. International. The discussion is about whether the Three-Fund P...
by saltycaper
Wed Mar 21, 2018 7:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2223
Views: 1387355

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Do you consider the risks of US stocks and international stocks to be the same for a US investor? If not, how would you adjust for those risks? I don't think the risks are the same, but that doesn't mean an adjustment is needed, just as other slices of the equity market have different risks for whi...
by saltycaper
Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2223
Views: 1387355

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

PhilosophyAndrew: I think only one ex-US allocation is permissible if the investment philosophy is based in part on not attempting to beat the market and not trying to pull the levers of various risk factors on the equity side of the portfolio. That allocation is the global market-cap weighted alloc...
by saltycaper
Tue Mar 20, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities
Replies: 51
Views: 6622

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities

Salty FWIW, one way to judge the ability to hedge is correlations. Correlation of TIPS and inflation obviously highly correlated. Monthly correlation of Bloomberg Commodity Total Return index to CPI was 0.243 while to one month bills was 0.128 Larry Thank you, Larry. While I haven't been one to wav...
by saltycaper
Tue Mar 20, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2223
Views: 1387355

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Saltycaper, how specifically does the three fund portfolio "encourages" market-timing of the sort you describe? I'm not following your logic. If ones does not wish to use a specific bond fund in a three fund portfolio, one may choose not to do so. Of course, not all bond funds are suitable for incl...
by saltycaper
Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 2223
Views: 1387355

[US vs. International allocation in a Three-fund portfolio]

[Split into a separate thread from: The Three-Fund Portfolio --admin LadyGeek] I don't know how many members use this portfolio, but Taylor has done a compelling job demonstrating how it aligns with the Boglehead investing philosophy; I consider it a representation of that philosophy par excellence...
by saltycaper
Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: Boosting Returns With Rebalancing
Replies: 11
Views: 1965

Re: Allan Roth: Boosting Returns With Rebalancing

Taking more risk may or may not boost returns. Market timing may or may not boost returns.
by saltycaper
Mon Mar 19, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities
Replies: 51
Views: 6622

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities

I appreciate Larrys article and the discussion. One thing I'm missing is an intuitive explanation of why commodities would hedge better than TIPS (or: respond stronger to inflation). Is it because commodities are raw products and sold at a multiple to consumers? TIPS are as good a "hedge" as any. D...
by saltycaper
Mon Mar 19, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Incredibly sleazy Northwestern Mutual cold caller
Replies: 78
Views: 8465

Re: Incredibly sleazy Northwestern Mutual cold caller

Pacman wrote:
Mon Mar 19, 2018 10:32 am
If I had a company where I needed salespeople, I would hire this person.
I was thinking the same thing.
by saltycaper
Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 23551

Re: "TRYING TO BEAT THE MARKET"

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sat Mar 17, 2018 4:07 pm


I put this Boglehead post in another thread. It belongs here:
Actually, the quote has nothing to do with this thread, which otherwise has been excellent. Let's try not to derail it.