Search found 2186 matches

by saltycaper
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's Tip #8:Retire Worry-Free with TIPs as a foundation
Replies: 157
Views: 42693

Re: Grok's Tip #8:Retire Worry-Free with TIPs as a foundation

As recently as the winter of 2015 and the fall of 2016, the rate on the 30-year TIPS got down to around 0.5%. Back in early 2012, it was about 0.25%. It certainly can happen again. Meanwhile, on the nominal side, the yield curve has been flattening.
by saltycaper
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?
Replies: 177
Views: 4271

Re: Thoughts on using safe-ish investments to buy S&P 500 on margin in December?

By the amount of the drop. 30% is my trigger (and yes I know in 2007 it fell closer to 50% but that was a very rare event. Besides, even if you get in at 30% and it goes down another 20% you're still in a very good spot when it goes back up 50%). Might get in a little after a 20% drop too not sure....
by saltycaper
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 41
Views: 3332

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

In a speech to the Morningstar Investment Forum, Mr. Bogle discusses "Six Manifestations of RTM." Small Cap Value stocks are "Manifestation #1": The Telltale Chart In that section, Bogle confirms the outperformance of small-cap stocks, even if he eliminates the period where there was the most outpe...
by saltycaper
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 41
Views: 3332

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

If anyone is not using past performance to forecast future performance, I would like to know what they are using to forecast future performance. If they are not forecasting future performance, they are either lying, unaware, or in denial. A stochastic model is a tool for estimating probability dist...
by saltycaper
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advice: Total market vs Larry Portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3315

Warning About Using S&P 500 Index Funds

The oldest multi-factor fund of which I am aware is PNC Multi-Factor Small-Cap Value C (PSVCX). According to Morningstar, its annualized 15-year return was 7.32%. During the same period, The S&P 500 Index return was 9.72% (with lower Standard Deviation). Over the past 10 years, the CAGR for State F...
by saltycaper
Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it good idea to buy yearly maintenance from HVAC company
Replies: 14
Views: 1392

Re: Is it good idea to buy yearly maintenance from HVAC company

There are not many components that can go wrong with a standard HVAC system on a yearly basis, nor are there preventative maintenance work that is critical beyond changing the return air filters to prevent overheating, etc. I suppose this depends on the system you have, its age, and the climate. An...
by saltycaper
Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 186
Views: 16937

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

new2bogle2 wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:19 pm
CnC wrote:
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:01 pm
People understand that Bitcoin has no actual value right?
Does government issued IOU pieces of paper?
Yup. It's backed, in part, by you.
by saltycaper
Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 186
Views: 16937

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Looks like it's up about 30% since his comments 8 days ago, far outpacing the return of US stocks and bonds. So far Bogle's been wrong. This is false. Do not confuse outcome with strategy. I can tell you not to bet on Big 6 on a craps table because it's a sucker's bet. Even if you do it anyway, and...
by saltycaper
Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 41
Views: 3332

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

If anyone is not using past performance to forecast future performance, I would like to know what they are using to forecast future performance. If they are not forecasting future performance, they are either lying, unaware, or in denial.
by saltycaper
Tue Dec 12, 2017 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Play money individual stocks, which ones?
Replies: 48
Views: 2254

Re: Play money individual stocks, which ones?

There may be a handful of people out there that just like doing it for the sake of doing it and are content not to earn much in the way of returns, and even tracking the Total Market would be entertaining enough, but I think there are very few such investors. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto...
by saltycaper
Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Play money individual stocks, which ones?
Replies: 48
Views: 2254

Re: Play money individual stocks, which ones?

I don't understand the investment of "play money" into large-cap/mega-cap companies. Many of these companies are mature with mathematically limited room for top-line growth, and they are widely followed by analysts. KlangFool often says if you don't think you can get a 10X or 20X return in 5 or 10 y...
by saltycaper
Tue Dec 12, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 2614

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

One approach I have thought about that would allow me to stay heavier in equitities is to "borrow" some %tile from Bonds and shift them over to foreign markets and increase the weighting back over to bonds over the next 5-12 years. Thoughts?? Equities are not bonds, even if they are foreign equitie...
by saltycaper
Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond vs. 70/30 Int. Treasury/High Yield Corporate
Replies: 9
Views: 747

Re: Total Bond vs. 70/30 Int. Treasury/High Yield Corporate

Normally I would say it follows the general pattern of very safe asset + very risky diversified asset has offered a better risk-adjusted return than a mix that includes some not very safe but not very risky assets, but the "middling" risky assets in Total Bond are probably around 30% anyway. More if...
by saltycaper
Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: CDs that compound interest payments, at big brokerages ?
Replies: 17
Views: 1474

Re: CDs that compound interest payments, at big brokerages ?

At Vanguard, when you look at the secondary market availability online, the yield is figured taking into account the premium or discount BUT NOT THE BROKERAGE FEE. I think the brokerage fee is 0.2%. (maybe decimal place not correct) basis pointsDo not buy the very small face amiunt CDs (just a few ...
by saltycaper
Mon Dec 11, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a tilt toward consumer staples make sense?
Replies: 15
Views: 800

Re: Does a tilt toward consumer staples make sense?

I would expect a the consumer staples fund to provide a better risk-adjusted return in the event of a severe market downturn, as well as over a period that includes a severe market downturn, compared to a total market fund. It might not or even probably won't offer a better risk-adjusted return if t...
by saltycaper
Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 41
Views: 3332

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

Overthought: Mr. Bogle made a speech in Chicago in 2002 which included his thoughts about small-cap and value stocks. I was there and learned a lot. This is the link: The Telltale Chart Best wishes. Taylor Somewhere out there, the hairs on the back of Larry Swedroe's neck are probably standing up, ...
by saltycaper
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advice: Total market vs Larry Portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3315

Re: Portfolio advice: Total market vs Larry Portfolio

May I ask you what your portfolio is? My bias is for a 50/50 TSM/tilt so I'd like to know what you've done. Well, as long as it's only for your entertainment... My target AA is very rough, as I have many accounts and try to limit the number of investments in each one. I will not add a fund to an ac...
by saltycaper
Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advice: Total market vs Larry Portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3315

Re: Portfolio advice: Total market vs Larry Portfolio

Let's just look at this year's performance. The Larry Portfolio of 40/60 compared to Vanguard LifeStrategy Conservative Growth VSCGX of 40/60 have 2017 through November returns of about 8.4% and 10.1%. Can you stomach such a shortfall of 1.7% in such a short time? I know I couldn't. Is that why you...
by saltycaper
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Research On Dividend Studies
Replies: 11
Views: 1159

Re: Current Research On Dividend Studies

What is the explanation for why only "the largest 50% of developed market stocks by market capitalization" were chosen for analysis? Certainly if there was any outperformance by small-cap, non- or low-dividend paying stocks, that would affect the results.
by saltycaper
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2473

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

Swedroe mentioned some years back that DFA used a rule on the slope of the yield curve to determine how far out to purchase. Something like if you got an extra 25 bp/year then extend out. But I have not seen any reliable rule for how to do this. I tried a few things using Fed data and got nowhere. ...
by saltycaper
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio advice: Total market vs Larry Portfolio
Replies: 42
Views: 3315

Re: Portfolio advice: Total market vs Larry Portfolio

- 60% VFITX - Intermediate Term Treasury; or maybe just CDs. - 20% VISVX - Small Cap Value. - 15% VFSVX - FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index. - 5% VEIEX - Emerging Market. (EDIT: Fixed an error in the stock allocations) This is not a perfect match: VISVX doesn't fully expose me to the small and v...
by saltycaper
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 2473

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

In a rising rate environment, even the slowly rising rate structure which is anticipated, short term bonds are attractive IMO. This is especially so now when interest rate spreads between short and intermediate term bonds have narrowed considerably. You get paid very little these days to take on du...
by saltycaper
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1929
Views: 1183967

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

In the end, for me, simplicity is the most important quality of the Three-Fund Portfolio. I'll rebalance once per year and then in 20-30 years I'll peek. Although, to this point, I haven't found a way to rebalance without peeking. Assuming we can forget advisors who would do the rebalancing, the on...
by saltycaper
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1929
Views: 1183967

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I would suspect that the "market" includes an investors allocation between U.S. and International stocks and bonds. Everything else is just a piece of that puzzle. The Three Fund Portfolio is, while simple, and very sophisticated investment portfolio. I agree for the most part re: the market portfo...
by saltycaper
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1929
Views: 1183967

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

Thank you for your response. What is your definition on the market portfolio? The market portfolio would include market cap-weighted allocations to all publicly investable assets, particularly stocks and bonds. Exactly what the allocations would be is open to some interpretation, such as free-float...
by saltycaper
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin IRA
Replies: 28
Views: 2441

Re: Bitcoin IRA

I would not put Bitcoin in an IRA as I would want to be able to harvest expected losses.
by saltycaper
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?
Replies: 65
Views: 4021

Re: Does a Boglehead ever time the market?

Any help would be appreciated, investing books seem to have no advice regarding what a new investor should do in this situation. You received a lot of good advice so far. I just wanted to say, if you set aside behavioral errors, psychological worries, taxes, bookkeeping considerations and the like,...
by saltycaper
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1929
Views: 1183967

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

You either choose the simple 3-fund (or ETF) portfolio of Total Stock Market, Total International, and Total Bond Market, properly allocated OR you try to beat the market by tilting/factors/market timing. Is this too simplistic? Is this not what it all boils down to? The three-fund portfolio discus...
by saltycaper
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spousal IRA - can an existing rollover IRA be used?
Replies: 10
Views: 389

Re: Spousal IRA - can an existing rollover IRA be used?

Co-mingling funds in a rollover IRA do not affect the unlimited federal bankruptcy protection of the rolled over assets and their earnings. It just makes it a little harder to identify them, that is all. Other IRA assets and their earnings receive up to $1M inflation adjusted from 2005 (currently =...
by saltycaper
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"
Replies: 42
Views: 4104

Re: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"

After data is obtained for best and worst days, please re-run model for best and worst fortnights. Also for every e hours the market is open.
by saltycaper
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spousal IRA - can an existing rollover IRA be used?
Replies: 10
Views: 389

Re: Spousal IRA - can an existing rollover IRA be used?

But that technically makes it no longer a Rollover IRA even if the name does not change. This only matters if you work again and want to roll your IRA into your new 401k. Might it also affect protection from creditors? I have no idea. Me either. Protection afforded to rollover IRAs seems to vary de...
by saltycaper
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spousal IRA - can an existing rollover IRA be used?
Replies: 10
Views: 389

Re: Spousal IRA - can an existing rollover IRA be used?

retiredjg wrote:
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:16 pm

But that technically makes it no longer a Rollover IRA even if the name does not change. This only matters if you work again and want to roll your IRA into your new 401k.
Might it also affect protection from creditors?
by saltycaper
Sat Dec 09, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spousal IRA - can an existing rollover IRA be used?
Replies: 10
Views: 389

Re: Spousal IRA - can an existing rollover IRA be used?

I am not a tax expert, but I have made spousal IRA contributions. I have never designated an account as a spousal IRA, nor would I know how to do so. While I see this terminology a lot, I am not sure why it is used. It might make more sense to think of it as a "spousal IRA contribution " as the fund...
by saltycaper
Sat Dec 09, 2017 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"
Replies: 42
Views: 4104

Re: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"

Either way I was not sure why you would think that the two have anything to do with each other. Thought you had some logic to that opinion and not just a query. My bad. Good luck. Perhaps I was not fair in my response because we have different observations. My observation is that volatility often, ...
by saltycaper
Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"
Replies: 42
Views: 4104

Re: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"

I think it would be pretty tough to miss the best days without missing some of the worst days too. Could be a wash. I'm sure someone has already analyzed the occurrence of best/worst days in relation to worst/best days, so all we need now is for someone to find it to satisfy the curious. I don't un...
by saltycaper
Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 166
Views: 9116

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

I read the article, and while "the guy" invests in dividend paying stocks or funds, no where does it say he takes the dividends. Vanguard Dividend Appreciation has a beta of 0.87, Dividend growth as a beta of 0.85. Dividend appreciation has slightly beaten S&P500 for 10 years and Div. growth has ti...
by saltycaper
Fri Dec 08, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 166
Views: 9116

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

Was it Moynihan that said, "everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts"? That's so 1980s. Now there's the Internet for the masses. Confirmation bias-driven searching and social media posting accounts for the majority of Internet traffic. Don't believe me? You heard it here first.
by saltycaper
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"
Replies: 42
Views: 4104

Re: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"

It's of trivial interest, but as far as market timing goes I think it would be difficult to miss the best, say, 30 days without also missing some of the worst days. Exactly. I wonder if it would be harder to miss the 30 best days without missing the 30 worst days than it would be to miss both. In w...
by saltycaper
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"
Replies: 42
Views: 4104

Re: "Think you can time the stock market? Look at this chart first"

I think it would be pretty tough to miss the best days without missing some of the worst days too. Could be a wash. I'm sure someone has already analyzed the occurrence of best/worst days in relation to worst/best days, so all we need now is for someone to find it to satisfy the curious.
by saltycaper
Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Dividends Perceived as Moral; Capital Value Changes as Immoral?
Replies: 55
Views: 3043

Re: Are Dividends Perceived as Moral; Capital Value Changes as Immoral?

Agreeing with triceratop above, I, livesoft, and many others are not against dividends. We're only against misconceptions about dividends, but there's considerable resistance to the reasoning. It's really just basic math. To the extent one is numerate, which merely means one has enough math skills ...
by saltycaper
Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Dividends Perceived as Moral; Capital Value Changes as Immoral?
Replies: 55
Views: 3043

Re: Are Dividends Perceived as Moral; Capital Value Changes as Immoral?

I understand that people don't like dividends for tax reasons, but I like that a company has to strive for positive cash-flow to pay out dividends every quarter. I would prefer companies didn't strive to be cash-flow positive for the purpose of paying dividends. Just taking on more debt will accomp...
by saltycaper
Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity charges to close accounts!
Replies: 54
Views: 19883

Re: Fidelity charges to close accounts!

Fido still lists the $50 account closure fee on their fee schedule. I still prefer Fido's fees, which seem more uniform, to Vanguard's fees, which are more onerous for investors with small accounts. I think investors who are just starting out should be encouraged as much as possible and not charged ...
by saltycaper
Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 186
Views: 16937

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Looks like it's up about 30% since his comments 8 days ago, far outpacing the return of US stocks and bonds. So far Bogle's been wrong.
by saltycaper
Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto-Currency
Replies: 17
Views: 1097

Re: Crypto-Currency

greg24 wrote:
Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:53 pm
That post makes me feel really good about my shorts.
Whenever I'm out and about in business casual dress in the summer, and I go home and change into a pair of shorts, I feel really good about myself too.
by saltycaper
Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto-Currency
Replies: 17
Views: 1097

Re: Crypto-Currency

Ethereum isn't having too much problem with the kitties really. It's more of a shock that came out of nowhere of very high gas transactions (because breeding kitties takes a lot of gas). There is a miner designated gas limit to keep spikiness down and it works well, but in this case it wasn't a spi...
by saltycaper
Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple 60/40 allocation has beaten both Swensen's and Bernstein's portfolios since 1979
Replies: 4
Views: 819

Re: Simple 60/40 allocation has beaten both Swensen's and Bernstein's portfolios since 1979

Helpful if you have a time machine that can only go back to 1979, but you'd probably pick a different AA if that was the case. The article also states: “The marginal 60/40 outperformance is driven by the fact that the S&P 500 SPX and 10-year bonds were the top two performing assets over this time pe...
by saltycaper
Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance
Replies: 166
Views: 9116

Re: One answer to the Dividend stocks puzzle from behavioral finance

pkcrafter wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 11:22 am

That is not to say that owning high dividend yield funds is also not a good idea in a tax-deferred account.

Paul
You said you are not saying it's not a good idea. But, would you go so far as to say it is a good idea? A preferable idea?
by saltycaper
Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Everyone, Even a Passive Vanguard Investor, is a Factor Investor (Alpha Architect/Jack Vogel, 11-30-17)
Replies: 39
Views: 1556

Re: Everyone, Even a Passive Vanguard Investor, is a Factor Investor (Alpha Architect/Jack Vogel, 11-30-17)

I find it interesting to hear that some posters do not believe factors exist. Besides the ERP, I find it pretty intuitive that long-term government bonds ought to offer a premium over short-term bills, and that long-term corporate bonds ought to offer a premium over long-term government bonds.
by saltycaper
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Three fund portfolio - Retirement income as the bond allocation?]
Replies: 13
Views: 1092

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

I am retiring April 1, 2018. I am considering the Three-Fund Portfolio when I roll over my current 403b with the exception of using John Bogle's idea of considering secure retirement income as bonds in the allocation. Using that my bond allocation would be about 84%. Does this make sense? The quest...