Search found 201 matches

by sfnerd
Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RSU Present Value Calculator?
Replies: 31
Views: 1202

Re: RSU Present Value Calculator?

I agree that you should count them as 0, since you won't receive the stock if you leave the company. I receive both a bonus and RSUs (which are 70-80% of my compensation), but I don't value them until they are in my bank account. The company could fire me at any time (theoretically), or I could have...
by sfnerd
Mon Oct 26, 2020 2:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you have a sizable portfolio, you don't need an emergency fund
Replies: 260
Views: 25684

Re: If you have a sizable portfolio, you don't need an emergency fund

When I had a smaller portfolio, I really tried to keep the EF at a specific dollar amount, covering a year of expenses (roughly). While now, many years and many millions later, I can totally afford no EF, but practically I keep hundreds of thousands of dollars as an "EF". Realistically tho...
by sfnerd
Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody here trying Coast FIRE?
Replies: 317
Views: 26817

Re: Anybody here trying Coast FIRE?

The acronym soup of the FIRE movement is getting a little out there. Financial independence means you don’t have to work for money if you don’t want to. I would very much consider myself a part of that movement, broadly speaking. But Coast FIRE is just changing jobs and taking longer to get to FI. ...
by sfnerd
Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Expat Investing
Replies: 3
Views: 304

Re: Expat Investing

My thinking is that there aren't capital gains and I like diversifying into Hong Kong/China. If you are a US citizen, you must pay capital gains on any asset sale, even if it is in another country. Also, as occambogle mentioned, there are PFIC complications you may have to worry about. You must als...
by sfnerd
Sat Sep 05, 2020 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian on CNBC homepage when market drops?
Replies: 41
Views: 3770

Re: El-Erian on CNBC homepage when market drops?

CNBC has been using him for commentary for longer than 10 years. I remember him in the run up to the great financial crisis. He's often bearish, but with some twist. He's not a dumb guy, quite smart in fact, but the coin in my pocket is better at market timing than he is. CNBC also brings him on for...
by sfnerd
Sat Sep 05, 2020 1:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Buying guns not an option, what else
Replies: 56
Views: 5252

Re: Buying guns not an option, what else

Is your concern preventing home invasions? Get a dog Upgrade your deadbolts to Class 1 locks and install reinforced strike plates Ensure windows can't be jimmied open (eg if you have horizontal sliders, put a wooden dowel in the track) Install motion-sensing lights around exterior doors/gates Insta...
by sfnerd
Fri Aug 28, 2020 12:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Capital One credit card limit reduced
Replies: 38
Views: 2982

Re: Capital One credit card limit reduced

Of course most of us will never know why but I'm always curious how they decide this stuff. I have a ton of cards but many are rarely used. I've yet to have a credit line reduced or a card canceled. I think I have a Discover card that probably got used less than once a year over the last decade but...
by sfnerd
Thu Aug 27, 2020 1:00 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Debt collector for traffic violation in another country
Replies: 6
Views: 821

Re: Debt collector for traffic violation in another country

Tell them to send all of the supporting documentation to you that clearly shows the debt owed, along with documentation showing that they are authorized to collect. Then verify with the original agency to determine if it is legit.
by sfnerd
Sun Aug 23, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: UHNW buying significant stake in micro-cap company. Can I throw my weight around?
Replies: 10
Views: 1373

Re: UHNW buying significant stake in micro-cap company. Can I throw my weight around?

You need to read the governing documents for the company, and figure out what vote you need to change the board. Then you need to lobby other shareholders to vote you and your allies in. Then you can either influence or change management. With a majority ownership and a lawyer, this is probably poss...
by sfnerd
Sun Aug 23, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Plea for Ordinary English
Replies: 128
Views: 10220

Re: A Plea for Ordinary English

I think this is a dangerous post. In learning new things, we must sometimes learn new words. Most of the language that is used as an example is fairly common math/statistics language. I think discouraging advanced thought on these topics will only make Boglehead ideas less respected. I think the bea...
by sfnerd
Mon Aug 17, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Starting over
Replies: 22
Views: 3016

Re: Starting over

You're not crazy. Just put it in a simple 3 fund portfolio as mentioned on the Wiki here, and you'll do great. Use Fidelity, Vanguard, or Schwab, and there will be plenty of low fee index fund options. The only thing to think about is taxes. First transfer your equities in kind to one of the brokers...
by sfnerd
Sat Aug 15, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The 0.5% Rule (SWR) [Safe Withdrawal Rate]
Replies: 419
Views: 24578

Re: The 0.5% Rule (SWR)

I generally have a lot of respect for this FI blogger and his many ratios and tables and guidelines. I’ve been following him for years. This particular post makes me wonder if he’s out of touch or losing it. But I think his core point on interest rates is a sound one directionally. What would it ta...
by sfnerd
Fri Aug 14, 2020 6:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lawyers - How much does it cost to write a prenup contract?
Replies: 48
Views: 6087

Re: Lawyers - How much does it cost to write a prenup contract?

I paid about 3k for mine, and about 1500 for the lawyer of her choosing to review and advise her.
by sfnerd
Tue Aug 11, 2020 11:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Assets going from 600K->15M, should I change my asset allocation?
Replies: 175
Views: 17800

Re: Assets going from 600K->15M, should I change my asset allocation?

With $15M you can afford better advice than Bogleheads I'm not convinced you can. By all means, talk to lawyers and accountants to the extent you have questions. But the basic bogglehead portfolio scales to $15MM no problem. Yeah, at 15M there isn't much advice regarding investing that will be bett...
by sfnerd
Mon Aug 10, 2020 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Career advice
Replies: 19
Views: 2462

Re: Career advice

Learn the stats and some programming, and apply it to your own work. If you can do this, you'll be extremely valuable. I don't want to trivialize the difficulty, but you'd be surprised how easy some data science tools are to learn if you know a little math. As someone who understands the business an...
by sfnerd
Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Would Be Your US/Int Equity Split If You Lived Outside US?
Replies: 58
Views: 2691

Re: What Would Be Your US/Int Equity Split If You Lived Outside US?

I live outside of the US. I'm tilted towards US, probably 80/20. This isn't the most intentional choice, but I feel OK with it. While I don't think the US is somehow exceptional, the equity markets are robust and fairly well regulated. I worry less about the equity side, in which even the US has sig...
by sfnerd
Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mid-Life / Mid-Career Crossroads - Help Us Make Sense of it All
Replies: 44
Views: 5373

Re: Mid-Life / Mid-Career Crossroads - Federal Couple - Help Me Make Some Sense of it All

Sounds like you aren't satisfied with your job, and that doing nothing won't be a fun option for you at this stage. Are you in a profession where you could go private, if staying a federal employee is not an option?
by sfnerd
Mon Jul 27, 2020 4:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you drink drink coffee and why or why not?
Replies: 36
Views: 2214

Re: Do you drink drink coffee and why or why not?

Aren't we supposed to avoid religion on this forum? :P Seriously though, I do drink it, but I go for 1-3 servings per day, max. Caffeine is a stimulant, and I prefer not to overuse it, otherwise it loses its intended affect at the normal dose. I've tried tea and other beverages in the past, but coff...
by sfnerd
Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: US Citizen but out of US for extended period ... VPN?
Replies: 33
Views: 2602

Re: US Citizen but out of US for extended period ... VPN?

I live abroad (Thailand, 4 years) and (pre Coronavirus) travel constantly. I use Private Internet Access, and it works great for accessing US accounts (connecting through US VPN servers of course). If you try accessing US accounts without a VPN, it's possible that your account will be frozen after s...
by sfnerd
Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:06 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Seeking a US expat Friendly stock broker
Replies: 16
Views: 1373

Re: Seeking a US expat Friendly stock broker

I never understood why don’t u just use a US street address and pretty much any US broker would be happy to have you on. Why do you need to use your foreign address? Only Merrill edge been particular about US residency and it still works fine for me. Never had any issues with Fido, Schwab, or vangu...
by sfnerd
Sat Jul 25, 2020 4:03 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Seeking a US expat Friendly stock broker
Replies: 16
Views: 1373

Re: Seeking a US expat Friendly stock broker

I'm an expat living in Thailand for the last 4 years. I use Schwab (US). They are amazing. If you want a non-US account I believe Schwab has an international office as well. However, if you truly want someone that is non-US, Interactive Brokers will fit the bill, as others have mentioned. Any broker...
by sfnerd
Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Re-Retiring Financially (SWR) After Good Year
Replies: 63
Views: 5480

Re: Re-Retiring Financially (SWR) After Good Year

Re-retiring is basically just making a new bet. The previous bet you made was looking like it was going to win, so you decided to make a more aggressive bet. Like others have said, the SWR math is not a withdrawal strategy, it's just a statement of the probability of success of a fixed, CPI-adjusted...
by sfnerd
Sat Jul 11, 2020 8:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too much in savings?
Replies: 83
Views: 9728

Re: Too much in savings?

From what I understand here, you have 1.1m in cash, 200k in a house, and 30k split between stocks and bonds. So you only have 20k of equity exposure, which is a 1.5% allocation. I would say you are drastically under allocated to equities. As you mention, your cash will lose value over time. It may ...
by sfnerd
Sat Jul 11, 2020 6:55 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Too much in savings?
Replies: 83
Views: 9728

Re: Too much in savings?

From what I understand here, you have 1.1m in cash, 200k in a house, and 30k split between stocks and bonds. So you only have 20k of equity exposure, which is a 1.5% allocation. I would say you are drastically under allocated to equities. As you mention, your cash will lose value over time. It may h...
by sfnerd
Wed Jul 08, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Justification for Buying Weekend Used Luxury Car (Lexus) [Indonesia]
Replies: 16
Views: 811

Re: Justification for Buying Weekend Used Luxury Car (Lexus)

I actually own a 2011 RX-350 that I purchased used. Did you write that such a car cost US$76,000 new because that just ain't right. In 2014, it was priced at under US$28,000 used. I don't know what you mean by "cautious", but I would not buy this car for the price you have listed. First, ...
by sfnerd
Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: At what point can you justify a $10k+ flight?
Replies: 75
Views: 4705

Re: At what point can you justify a $10k+ flight?

I fly a ton (not during COVID of course), and always international business class, both when work pays and when I have to pay. 10k tickets are actually fairly rare... You can usually find a business class fare for 3-6k almost anywhere. I've only paid 10k or more a few times, and usually it was becau...
by sfnerd
Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:01 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Effect of open-source software on SWE careers and start-up companies.
Replies: 34
Views: 2209

Re: Effect of open-source software on SWE careers and start-up companies.

With traditional companies, open source doesn't take take high level VPs (who have never coded a line of code in their life) out to expensive tropical vacations and hunting trips, restaurants, golfing...etc. Why go free when you can spend millions on software, millions on consultants to implement a...
by sfnerd
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which College degrees are worthwhile?
Replies: 248
Views: 17439

Re: Which College degrees are worthwhile?

I wouldn't come at it from that direction, but..... Currently, there is an insatiable appetite for Computer Science/Computer engineering degrees, and the new grad salaries are skyrocketing. The problem for me with computer science is there don't seem to be any professional accreditation, e.g an acc...
by sfnerd
Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Not Seeing Big Travel Discounts Yet
Replies: 16
Views: 1126

Re: Not Seeing Big Travel Discounts Yet

With the current bad economy and few folks traveling these days, I have been browsing vacation packages to see if there were any big discount deals for traveling. In past recessions, I have always noticed companies slashing prices to draw people back. In some cases, they will give away free trips (...
by sfnerd
Sat Jun 13, 2020 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Confusion about the 4% rule
Replies: 98
Views: 5836

Re: Confusion about the 4% rule

The starting date paradox is hard to understand if you haven't studied probability or statistics, but here is a simple explanation: The 4% SWR study just tells you that, based on history, your portfolio has a very high probability of lasting 30 years if you withdraw 4% a year and adjust for inflatio...
by sfnerd
Fri Jun 05, 2020 4:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Lost my job yesterday
Replies: 68
Views: 11964

Re: Lost my job yesterday

Thanks everyone for the kind words. I'm definitely keeping my options open and don't plan on jumping on the first offer I receive. My wife and I have built a good emergency fund for a situation like this, but don't want to live off of it for too long. We had a trip to the Virgin Islands planned for...
by sfnerd
Fri Jun 05, 2020 12:17 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Check-in: 30 y/o Expat
Replies: 14
Views: 889

Re: Portfolio Check-in: 30 y/o Expat

Selling right at vest will incur virtually no gains. You will be taxed as income on the whole thing. I would recommend selling RSUs immediately at vest.
by sfnerd
Mon May 18, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Compensation negotiation strategy (rocket ship tech)
Replies: 46
Views: 6701

Re: Compensation negotiation strategy (rocket ship tech)

One year update to this thread. Today marks 18 months since I joined my company, and in that time something completely unexpected has happened - my high beta unprofitable tech company turned out to be negatively correlated to the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression! Stock is up 50%...
by sfnerd
Mon May 18, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Compensation negotiation strategy (rocket ship tech)
Replies: 46
Views: 6701

Re: Compensation negotiation strategy (rocket ship tech)

One year update to this thread. Today marks 18 months since I joined my company, and in that time something completely unexpected has happened - my high beta unprofitable tech company turned out to be negatively correlated to the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression! Stock is up 50%...
by sfnerd
Sun May 17, 2020 1:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay off Tesla as Planned or Keep Cash for Covid Uncertainty?
Replies: 62
Views: 4011

Re: Pay off Tesla as Planned or Keep Cash for Covid Uncertainty?

I would just hold on to the cash, and if something bad happens like a job loss, then you can always sell it. It's a luxury, but you can afford it, and there is always a bit of overhead with buying and selling cars. Sure, you can always buy a used Camry, but what if it has problems? What is all the t...
by sfnerd
Sun May 17, 2020 12:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Compensation negotiation strategy (rocket ship tech)
Replies: 46
Views: 6701

Re: Compensation negotiation strategy (rocket ship tech)

One year update to this thread. Today marks 18 months since I joined my company, and in that time something completely unexpected has happened - my high beta unprofitable tech company turned out to be negatively correlated to the biggest economic downturn since the Great Depression! Stock is up 50%...
by sfnerd
Sat May 16, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan
Replies: 24
Views: 1473

Re: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan

Sawasdee Krab Khun sfnerd. I hope you enjoyed your stay here in Thailand. :D I think you're looking at the different funds I invest in. My funds are of "Class E(lectronic)" so all fund names ends with "E", e.g. to invest in S&P500 I choose SCBS&P500E https://www.scbam.co...
by sfnerd
Sat May 16, 2020 9:41 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan
Replies: 24
Views: 1473

Re: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan

One more thing I wanted to mention regarding the SCB S&P 500 fund: I'm not sure the fee structure is actually just 0.1% ER, so my previous comments might not be valid if this is the case. Looking at the information here: https://www.scbam.com/en/fund/morningstar/fund-information/scbs-p500 and he...
by sfnerd
Sat May 16, 2020 8:59 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan
Replies: 24
Views: 1473

Re: [Thailand] Advice needed on my investment plan

Sawatdee khrap Khun Monkeyballs! I agree with Anon that you probably want at least a small allocation to Thai stocks. I've lived and worked in Bangkok for the last 4 years at a sizable company here, and I must say that the Thai economic system is not bad, and the country is actually in a decent posi...
by sfnerd
Sat May 16, 2020 3:07 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Percentage of savings to "prepping"?
Replies: 132
Views: 8932

Re: Percentage of savings to "prepping"?

If I spent even one percent of my savings over time on prepping I'd basically look like Rambo owned a grocery store. It seems like even a hundred dollars a month over time will be plenty. We have probably a month's worth of non-perishable stuff to eat. My most important prepping thing is to keep a h...
by sfnerd
Thu May 14, 2020 2:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread
Replies: 251
Views: 16405

Re: Delta Sky-nightmare

It's totally gone now. I think that they probably just don't have the manpower to staff it anymore. Yeah, I really don't want "store credit." It's always been cash of bust with me. If they want to double my skymiles balance then we can talk shop, but I doubt that'll happen. You have gotte...
by sfnerd
Tue May 12, 2020 1:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ML/AI based withdrawal systems?
Replies: 11
Views: 763

Re: ML/AI based withdrawal systems?

The problem is not that it's a "black box" (if you understand ML even slightly you realize this isn't the case). The problem isn't accessibility of market data either: this data is available at the granularity that you need. The problem is that the useful variables have to do with your lif...
by sfnerd
Fri May 01, 2020 1:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread
Replies: 251
Views: 16405

Re: Coronavirus Flight Cancel Thread

Canceled two Delta international business class flights, full cash refund, about $7k. It literally took 15 seconds. I'm a Diamond Medallion member so I get their fast line, so someone usually answers immediately. I was ready for an argument because I didn't want credit for such a large amount of mon...
by sfnerd
Mon Apr 13, 2020 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Covid19 Overshadowing a Financial Crisis?
Replies: 2
Views: 565

Re: Covid19 Overshadowing a Financial Crisis?

It sounds like an article written by someone who doesn't understand the overnight lending market. The author doesn't describe the actual problem (if any) but instead uses terms like "feeding tube" to insinuate that the Fed was giving money to banks, which is not really correct. This was di...
by sfnerd
Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does compounding really work with stocks?
Replies: 64
Views: 4793

Re: Does compounding really work with stocks?

Literally ask any random person on the street what they would think "compounding money" means. Even here on this forum, many people don't know what it means. Let alone a random person on the street. Compound interest is an actual mathematical phenomenon that can be calculated exactly. Sto...
by sfnerd
Sun Apr 12, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does compounding really work with stocks?
Replies: 64
Views: 4793

Re: Does compounding really work with stocks?

Compounding assumes a smooth continuous exponential line. [...] This is incorrect. Compounding, mathematically, is merely growth upon previous growth. It doesn't even really have any specific constraints or definition. Compound Interest is maybe what you're thinking of, but this statement is still ...
by sfnerd
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is saving $19k/yr worth having roommates? (California Bay Area)
Replies: 71
Views: 5828

Re: Is saving $19k/yr worth having roommates? (California Bay Area)

First, I would ignore COVID-19 in this situation. Not only is it too late to make a difference like RudyS said, you are not in a high risk group at all. Unless one of your roommates is a front line medical professional, it's not going to affect your probability of contracting the virus, either. Seco...
by sfnerd
Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:10 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: [Panicked and moved to cash. What to do next?]
Replies: 106
Views: 13211

Re: I am a Massive Loser

You have 1 million dollars and I have $70k at 47. I'll trade places with you in a split second! I could live VERY comfortably on 1 million for the REST OF MY LIFE! Do you NOT realize that MOST people in this world don't even have 1/10th of what you have in the bank?????? Most people in Thailand, ph...
by sfnerd
Mon Apr 06, 2020 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Futures Up Again?
Replies: 131
Views: 8315

Re: Dow Futures Up Again?

A lot of people are saying "how can the market go up if we're going to have 15-20% unemployment for 6 months?". It's very simple: this piece of information, and all conclusions like business failures etc., was available by early March, and the market priced this in. That's impossible. Som...
by sfnerd
Sun Apr 05, 2020 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dow Futures Up Again?
Replies: 131
Views: 8315

Re: Dow Futures Up Again?

It always baffles me that people look at CNN/Fox News/etc. and think that that's driving the market, and then the market does something unexpected and people get confused. The news is usually reporting on what has happened in the past, not what will happen in the future. The market is merely a disco...