Search found 286 matches

by Vulcan
Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping
Replies: 25
Views: 1843

Re: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping

The Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund should have Admiral shares this Friday. I'm Googling, but not finding that anywhere. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/857489/000093247118007443/merged.htm Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund Preliminary Prospectus Dated November 19, 2018 ... It is ...
by Vulcan
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping
Replies: 25
Views: 1843

Re: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping

But in any case: yes or no, do you, HEDGEFUNDIE, expect the size of the Chinese stock market, including A shares, based on your favorite data source, to pass that of the United States in 2020? Nisi, the beauty of market cap investing is it doesn't matter what one expects. The Vanguard Total World S...
by Vulcan
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Meanings of probability
Replies: 11
Views: 1260

Re: Meanings of probability

The irony is that probabilities make no zero sense outside of a bayesian or frequentist framework and even the creators of that visualization may not realize that... given that they're intermingling the two as if they're the same thing. Yup. And according to one of the fathers of probability theory...
by Vulcan
Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?
Replies: 74
Views: 6699

Re: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?

Those that know something the market doesn't can select an arbitrary allocation to intentional and rationalize it here every two weeks. For the rest of us, Vanguard will introduce admiral shares of Total World Index Fund next week :beer Have they actually announced a firm date for Total World Stock...
by Vulcan
Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover - why checks instead of wiring funds?
Replies: 37
Views: 1756

Re: Rollover - why checks instead of wiring funds?

The only way to get at least some of the risk out of these transfers is to only transfer bond funds. If you have bonds elsewhere in a tax-advantaged account, sell them there and buy an equivalent of what is in the account to be transferred, and do the opposite in that account. If you don't have enou...
by Vulcan
Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?
Replies: 74
Views: 6699

Re: Vanguards recommends investors to increase international (non-US) stock holdings to 40% ?

Those that know something the market doesn't can select an arbitrary allocation to intentional and rationalize it here every two weeks.

For the rest of us, Vanguard will introduce admiral shares of Total World Index Fund next week :beer
by Vulcan
Fri Jan 11, 2019 10:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?
Replies: 49
Views: 8467

Re: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?

Blu-Ray burners cost less than $100. And quality 25GB Blu-Ray disks are less than a buck a piece, about $5 for 100GB triple layer ones (BDXL). It really is a no-brainer for a permanent archival solution. I have more than 500GB of family photos and videos. Do the math. I would have to spend more on ...
by Vulcan
Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?
Replies: 49
Views: 8467

Re: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?

Storage is cheap. 5 Gb is nothing. No bait and switch, just marketing. Will the online storage last forever? I don't know. Will Fidelity be around in 50 years? Google? Apple? Cloud copies have their place for ease of access, but not for archival. Don't tell that to Google docs, Google Photos, iClou...
by Vulcan
Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?
Replies: 49
Views: 8467

Re: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?

In 50 years you probably will probably not find a blu-ray player to play the disc. On top of that you will probably not find the application to read the data. If you had a VisiCalc spreadsheet or an Apple Writer document in your hands today could you access the data? Not so sure... +1 Someone at wo...
by Vulcan
Fri Jan 11, 2019 7:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?
Replies: 49
Views: 8467

Re: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?

Show of hands. How many people have a blu-ray drive for their computer? Redundancy solves the longevity problem. Just back up to 2-3 cloud locations. Blu-Ray burners cost less than $100. And quality 25GB Blu-Ray disks are less than a buck a piece, about $5 for 100GB triple layer ones (BDXL). It rea...
by Vulcan
Fri Jan 11, 2019 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?
Replies: 49
Views: 8467

Re: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?

Magnetic media has inherent longevity limitations beyond hardware availability though. I doubt Blu-Rays are going away any time in the next few decades, since a lot of movies are sold on it, so there will be continued demand for hardware to read it, and thus the 1980s CDs will remain readable too. ...
by Vulcan
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?
Replies: 49
Views: 8467

Re: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?

Storage is cheap. 5 Gb is nothing. No bait and switch, just marketing. Will the online storage last forever? I don't know. Will Fidelity be around in 50 years? Google? Apple? Cloud copies have their place for ease of access, but not for archival. OTOH, if you burn your data onto a high quality Blu-...
by Vulcan
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?
Replies: 49
Views: 8467

Re: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?

Storage is cheap. 5 Gb is nothing. No bait and switch, just marketing. Will the online storage last forever? I don't know. Will Fidelity be around in 50 years? Google? Apple? Cloud copies have their place for ease of access, but not for archival. Don't tell that to Google docs, Google Photos, iClou...
by Vulcan
Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?
Replies: 49
Views: 8467

Re: Fidelity "FidSafe" Free online storage of documents - is this safe?

Storage is cheap. 5 Gb is nothing. No bait and switch, just marketing. Will the online storage last forever? I don't know. Will Fidelity be around in 50 years? Google? Apple? Cloud copies have their place for ease of access, but not for archival. OTOH, if you burn your data onto a high quality Blu-...
by Vulcan
Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fell in Love with Fidelity
Replies: 60
Views: 6183

Re: Fell in Love with Fidelity

What is Fidelity's equivalent of Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund?
by Vulcan
Mon Jan 07, 2019 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to own Vanguard ETFs over Admiral shares?
Replies: 66
Views: 4488

Re: Reasons to own Vanguard ETFs over Admiral shares?

If you want to hold the Vanguard Total World Stock Index , it would be ideal to do it via the ETF because the expense ratio (0.10%) is lower than the mutual fund (0.19%). That's a good observation. That's because VT does not have corresponding MF with Admiral shares (only with Investor shares). Thi...
by Vulcan
Sun Jan 06, 2019 7:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Who pays for apps?
Replies: 42
Views: 2473

Re: Who pays for apps?

runner3081 wrote:
Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:09 am
I have an Android and only "pay" for Apps with Google Rewards for completing short surveys. Essentially trading short bits of time, not cash for them.
+1

Also spend that money on renting movies from Google Play Sagan streaming via Chromecast
by Vulcan
Sun Jan 06, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid rebalancing between risky assets. Let bulls run.
Replies: 33
Views: 2768

Re: Avoid rebalancing between risky assets. Let bulls run.

danielc wrote:
Sun Jan 06, 2019 7:06 am
Many bogleheads have commented that regular rebalancing into international stocks has felt like throwing money down the drain.
If you are holding them at market cap, you never have to rebalance.
Vanguard Total World Stock Admiral shares should become available in two weeks.

Also, see signature.
by Vulcan
Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7701

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

This current factor fad seems like active in sheep's clothing (certainly momentum, aka 'market timing', can often become active on steroids). This too shall pass? What would it take for you to consider factors more than a fad? We have extensive historical data and out of sample tests provided by di...
by Vulcan
Thu Dec 27, 2018 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14711

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

Adherents of American exceptionalism need to look no further than out their window. Or perhaps even their mirror. Why do you assume that those promoting U.S. only (which I'm actually not) are "adherents of American exceptionalism?" Because many of them are, including oft-quoted Mr. Buffett and Mr. ...
by Vulcan
Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14711

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

Adherents of American exceptionalism need to look no further than out their window. Or perhaps even their mirror. Why do you assume that those promoting U.S. only (which I'm actually not) are "adherents of American exceptionalism?" Because many of them are, including oft-quoted Mr. Buffett and Mr. ...
by Vulcan
Wed Dec 26, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14711

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

I'll see your "corruption drag" and raise you one "Individual-1" drag In before the lock! (I've been thinking about this very same thing a lot lately) There's a flaw in the system that has been unearthed. This is not singleton. There is an underlying pathology. Oh, absolutely! Adherents of American...
by Vulcan
Tue Dec 25, 2018 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14711

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

staycalm wrote:
Tue Dec 25, 2018 3:11 pm
I'll see your "corruption drag" and raise you one "Individual-1" drag
In before the lock!

(I've been thinking about this very same thing a lot lately)
by Vulcan
Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14711

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

I personally don't care if you or others invest market weight on International. A reasonable argument could be made not to based on costs and currency risks. Problem lies in that espousing this binary US vs non-US view of the world as essentially safe/corrupt, transparent/opaque, free market/market...
by Vulcan
Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14711

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

I’ll state it again: I think we do a disservice to new investors who come here looking for advice on their AA and whether to invest in international without explaining to them that international markets are not the same as domestic and that they all fall on a spectrum of transparency, corruption, e...
by Vulcan
Sun Dec 23, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14711

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

I mean, theoretically I’m with you Nisi. But theory doesn’t put food on the table or $ in my account. Ah, so you didn't mean what I thought you meant (using international diversification as a hedge against falling dollar). But if you do not think that your home country's falling curency is a potent...
by Vulcan
Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14711

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

Why I should own Ford and GM, but not Toyota and Honda? Chase and BofA, but not UBS and HSBC? Pfizer and Merck, but not Bayer and Novartis? Boeing and GE, but not Siemens and Airbus? Exxon and Chevron, but not Shell and BP? Unless they know something others don't, and with Total World Stock Index f...
by Vulcan
Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14711

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

Why I should own Ford and GM, but not Toyota and Honda? Chase and BofA, but not UBS and HSBC? Pfizer and Merck, but not Bayer and Novartis? Boeing and GE, but not Siemens and Airbus? Exxon and Chevron, but not Shell and BP? Unless they know something others don't, and with Total World Stock Index f...
by Vulcan
Sun Dec 23, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14711

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

Why I should own Ford and GM, but not Toyota and Honda? Chase and BofA, but not UBS and HSBC? Pfizer and Merck, but not Bayer and Novartis? Boeing and GE, but not Siemens and Airbus? Exxon and Chevron, but not Shell and BP? Unless they know something others don't, and with Total World Stock Index fu...
by Vulcan
Sun Dec 23, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade
Replies: 155
Views: 14711

Re: Vanguard says international will beat US stocks in next decade

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/27/international-stocks-will-beat-us-stocks-over-next-decade-vanguard.html Should one overweight their portfolio toward international? One should invest in VTWSX (Total Wold Stock Index) unless they are feeling lucky. In less than a month that fund will have Admiral sha...
by Vulcan
Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Email Accounts - How Many / Security / Best Practices
Replies: 46
Views: 3466

Re: Email Accounts - How Many / Security / Best Practices

I have my own domain name and buy Google Apps ($50/yr) I create an alias for every bank account and service. Signing up for Google Apps early (while it was still free for personal use for up to 50 users) was one of the best financial decisions I made :D (I didn't for bogleheads). so bofa@mydomain.c...
by Vulcan
Fri Dec 21, 2018 10:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Email Accounts - How Many / Security / Best Practices
Replies: 46
Views: 3466

Re: Email Accounts - How Many / Security / Best Practices

I would never trust Google. I own several domains and have 6 emails plus Comcast. My domains allow me to create unlimited emails that go into a catch-all bucket (or I can setup specific addresses if I want to use one of the ones I make up on the fly to send from). For example, if I went to crappysi...
by Vulcan
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Email Accounts - How Many / Security / Best Practices
Replies: 46
Views: 3466

Re: Email Accounts - How Many / Security / Best Practices

I would never trust Google. I own several domains and have 6 emails plus Comcast. My domains allow me to create unlimited emails that go into a catch-all bucket (or I can setup specific addresses if I want to use one of the ones I make up on the fly to send from). For example, if I went to crappysi...
by Vulcan
Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stick with Fidelity or open Vanguard account?
Replies: 34
Views: 1650

Re: Stick with Fidelity or open Vanguard account?

A month from now Vanguard will have Admiral shares of World Stock Index Fund (VTWSX).

Just sayin'
by Vulcan
Thu Dec 20, 2018 8:07 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Email Accounts - How Many / Security / Best Practices
Replies: 46
Views: 3466

Re: Email Accounts - How Many / Security / Best Practices

In my opinion, and in the opinion held by many in the security community, Google is the best steward of one's email. They spend tens of millions of dollars per year to run internal security auditing + employ a full-time, world-class, security research team. Every free user of Gmail benefits from th...
by Vulcan
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stocks a safe haven compared to expensive US assets?
Replies: 12
Views: 1125

Re: International stocks a safe haven compared to expensive US assets?

visualguy wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:43 pm
Kenkat wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 4:40 pm
International is kind of like a town that’s been bombed; maybe it’s safer because there’s not so much left to bomb, but you’re still living in a bombed out town.
That is an excellent analogy, unfortunately...
Yes, but what is that roar on the horizon?
by Vulcan
Thu Dec 20, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 220
Views: 14271

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

Can't wait for the admiral shares of VTWSX (VTWAX?). Hopefully just a few weeks now. If only it was available in employer-sponsored accounts... Is it really coming or just wishful thinking? :happy I am hoping one day we'll see VFSVX (international small cap) admiral :sharebeer They filed preliminar...
by Vulcan
Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How did I just buy VBR for $114.98 when the NAV is $129.00
Replies: 4
Views: 762

Re: How did I just buy VBR for $114.98 when the NAV is $129.00

Medlabscientist wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:12 am
Is there just panic selling? Or is the NAV a meaningless stat now?
Not sure where you got 129, but you can find real-time intrinsic value on Yahoo

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVBR-IV/
by Vulcan
Thu Dec 20, 2018 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 220
Views: 14271

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

What's next? Are we going to debate appropriate sectors weights? :) Even the standard three fund portfolio calls for approximate market cap (50/50 US/Intl). Emergence of Vanguard's World fund offering makes the whole question wonderfully quaint. Can't wait for the admiral shares of VTWSX (VTWAX?). H...
by Vulcan
Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cell Phone Plan/Carrier Recommendation?
Replies: 26
Views: 2042

Re: Cell Phone Plan/Carrier Recommendation?

I recently signed up with Google Fi. Price seems relatively good especially if you don't use a lot of data. Supports international roaming to many countries without having to get country specific SIM card. There is a very limited choice of phones that work with Fi. It uses T-Mobile, Sprint and U.S....
by Vulcan
Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Fax without a telephone line
Replies: 23
Views: 2291

Re: Fax without a telephone line

You can get a phone number from callcentric for $1/mo and receive unlimited faxes that will be e-mailed to you as PDFs.
by Vulcan
Sun Nov 25, 2018 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A few questions on VTWSX [Vanguard Total World Stock]
Replies: 13
Views: 1769

Re: A few questions on VTWSX

oldcomputerguy wrote:
Fri Nov 23, 2018 12:02 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Thu Nov 22, 2018 9:33 pm
if it's tax deferred or Roth it's fine. But if it's taxable wouldn't you lose out on the foreign tax credit with total world because you don't know how much of the dividends were from foreign sources?
Isn’t that broken out on the 1099-DIV?
It is, in box 6.
by Vulcan
Thu Nov 22, 2018 5:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSBC online savings; comments?
Replies: 14
Views: 1464

Re: HSBC online savings; comments?

HSBC is easily the worst big bank I've ever dealt with. Today, most people have no reason to look past Ally. Great free interest-paying checking account (next day ACH transfers, excellent interface, free checks, and domestic 3rd party ATM fee rebates) and very competitive savings rates (2.0% APR cur...
by Vulcan
Thu Nov 22, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rumor mill - Fidelity starting individual HSA's Nov. 15th
Replies: 860
Views: 65025

Re: Rumor mill - Fidelity starting individual HSA's Nov. 15th

For those transferring from Saturna with Vanguard admiral shares to this new Fidelity option, what is the fastest way to accomplish this? I was told by Fidelity that an in-kind transfer of VTSAX is not possible. I don’t want to lose $500 in market value while waiting for cash to transfer to save $2...
by Vulcan
Wed Nov 21, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [The Economist: Should investors diversify away from America?]
Replies: 24
Views: 3891

Re: Thoughts on this article from The Economist?

So I believe you picked those dates 1986-2012 because they look like both US and Europe ended up at the same place but there would have been some diversification benefit (from rebalancing) clearly when one did better or worse than the other. But when I can I like to use ALL data, not just some. And...
by Vulcan
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [The Economist: Should investors diversify away from America?]
Replies: 24
Views: 3891

Re: [The Economist: Should investors diversify away from America?]

You can’t - or better put, shouldn’t - have a conversation about global investing, without factoring the REAL effect of currency risk.....some choose not to. I wish them luck (and will leave it at that). Currency risk is overblown. When a currency inflates, assets denominated in that currency get m...
by Vulcan
Tue Nov 20, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [The Economist: Should investors diversify away from America?]
Replies: 24
Views: 3891

Re: Thoughts on this article from The Economist?

[quoted post removed by admin LadyGeek]

It's all priced in

US vs Europe
Image
by Vulcan
Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 15562

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

Vulcan wrote: If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything. 1+ Well put. Apparently, Ronald Coase, a Nobel Prize winning economist, knew what he was talking about;-) I'll go ahead and make it my signature. It looks like this truth bears more repeating on this forum than one woul...
by Vulcan
Mon Nov 19, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?
Replies: 225
Views: 18391

Re: Vanguard lowering Admiral level to $3,000?

Still no admiral shares for VTWSX (Total World Stock).
I'd love to get out of the ETF business and back to the mutual funds.