Search found 1165 matches

by Vulcan
Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doesn’t Recent Small Value Underperformance Create It’s Own Argument For Incorporation Into A Portfolio?
Replies: 16
Views: 935

Re: Doesn’t Recent Small Value Underperformance Create It’s Own Argument For Incorporation Into A Portfolio?

Random Walker wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:20 am
Vulcan wrote:
Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:35 am
This thread should be merged with one of those "why international" ones :D
Same sort of issue :-)
Except, of course, while Total Stock investors already own Small Value, that is not the case for International. :sharebeer
by Vulcan
Sat Jul 04, 2020 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the percentage breakdown between international stocks and U.S. stocks in a total world stock portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 758

Re: What is the percentage breakdown between international stocks and U.S. stocks in a total world stock portfolio?

Vulcan wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:49 pm
In 401k I consider 50/50 to be a good enough approximation.
To clarify, I make new contributions in 50/50 proportion, and then never rebalance to let the portfolio fluctuate along with world market cap weight.
by Vulcan
Fri Jul 03, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the percentage breakdown between international stocks and U.S. stocks in a total world stock portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 758

Re: What is the percentage breakdown between international stocks and U.S. stocks in a total world stock portfolio?

It won't be exact because of currency effects, but it will be close. Nisi, can you clarify this point? Do you mean to say that a portfolio of VTI/VXUS that starts at the same market weight as VT will gradually deviate from it due to currency effects? I am not sure I follow. Does there exist some so...
by Vulcan
Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the percentage breakdown between international stocks and U.S. stocks in a total world stock portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 758

Re: What is the percentage breakdown between international stocks and U.S. stocks in a total world stock portfolio?

For those wishing to accurately construct a total world stock portfolio, what is the definitive percentage composition between U.S. stocks and international stocks? 100% VTWAX :beer That's a great answer, but unfortunately I cannot access that fund in my 401(k). In 401k I consider 50/50 to be a goo...
by Vulcan
Fri Jul 03, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the percentage breakdown between international stocks and U.S. stocks in a total world stock portfolio?
Replies: 14
Views: 758

Re: What is the percentage breakdown between international stocks and U.S. stocks in a total world stock portfolio?

VartAndelay wrote:
Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:54 pm
For those wishing to accurately construct a total world stock portfolio, what is the definitive percentage composition between U.S. stocks and international stocks?
100% VTWAX

:beer
by Vulcan
Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 298
Views: 14100

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

For the US to continue to significantly outperform long-term, its market cap (already near its all-time high) would have to continue moving up. How close do you expect it will get to 100%? Will we blow past the post-WWII peak of American dominance? You decide. I buy the world. But isn't weighting y...
by Vulcan
Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 298
Views: 14100

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

As I write this post, Vanguard's total-market ex-US fund VTIAX/VXUS is trading below its price of 9.5 years ago. In the same timeframe, Vanguard's total US market VTSAX/VTI nearly tripled in price, even after the recent hit of COVID-19. Somebody pointed this out already, but worth emphasizing: you ...
by Vulcan
Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to analyze having a paid-off mortgage in retirement?
Replies: 101
Views: 5651

Re: How to analyze having a paid-off mortgage in retirement?

<< a good argument exists for getting rid of mortgage before kids' colleges. >> Then. life happened and the parents are laid off right before the kids go to college. Instead of financing college education with the lower-interest-rate mortgage, the parents have to co-sign a more expensive student lo...
by Vulcan
Fri Jul 03, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to analyze having a paid-off mortgage in retirement?
Replies: 101
Views: 5651

Re: How to analyze having a paid-off mortgage in retirement?

Paying down a mortgage aggressively while younger might mean using higher-taxed monies vs while in retirement. The variables seem too variable in order to just run the numbers and come up with a solution. Our 30 yr mortgage, if kept as is, would be paid off around age 70. We plan to retire in ~10 y...
by Vulcan
Fri Jul 03, 2020 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to analyze having a paid-off mortgage in retirement?
Replies: 101
Views: 5651

Re: How to analyze having a paid-off mortgage in retirement?

One scenario I don't see mentioned here that is not directly related to the original "in retirement" question but may occur "on the way to retirement": Home equity is treated more favorably for college financial aid purposes than taxable assets. Families with kids to put through college that qualify...
by Vulcan
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where should my nephew go to college?
Replies: 54
Views: 3139

Re: Where should my nephew go to college?

It doesn’t matter where you go, it matters what you do. Your outcome is predominantly controlled by you, not the name on your degree. My colleagues and I mostly graduated in the 90s. So 20-30 years experience. We all make about the same money. We only know where each other went to school during col...
by Vulcan
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where should my nephew go to college?
Replies: 54
Views: 3139

Re: Where should my nephew go to college?

OP if you want specific college suggestions, answer these questions. 1) What are the GPA, SAT/ACT scores, and list of ECs? Is the student a legacy anywhere? What race/ethnicity is the student? 2) What major is the student interested in? 3) Where does the student live? 4) What is the parent's budget...
by Vulcan
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where should my nephew go to college?
Replies: 54
Views: 3139

Re: Where should my nephew go to college?

It doesn’t matter where you go, it matters what you do. Your outcome is predominantly controlled by you, not the name on your degree. My colleagues and I mostly graduated in the 90s. So 20-30 years experience. We all make about the same money. We only know where each other went to school during col...
by Vulcan
Sat Jun 27, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where should my nephew go to college?
Replies: 54
Views: 3139

Re: Where should my nephew go to college?

Starting point for a good student would be in-state flagship public university. Some states have more than one. If parents want to pay more they can. I would not encourage nephew or his parents to take out loans or sacrifice family's financial well being to pay for any private college. If they have...
by Vulcan
Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where should my nephew go to college?
Replies: 54
Views: 3139

Re: Where should my nephew go to college?

OP, your nephew's parents should run Net Price Calculators of the colleges their kid may potentially get into, and then only apply to those they would be willing to pay for if he got in. We just went through this process with our 2020 HS graduate, and it helped us eliminate a lot of mid-range privat...
by Vulcan
Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where should my nephew go to college?
Replies: 54
Views: 3139

Re: Where should my nephew go to college?

Starting point for a good student would be in-state flagship public university. Some states have more than one. If parents want to pay more they can. I would not encourage nephew or his parents to take out loans or sacrifice family's financial well being to pay for any private college. If they have...
by Vulcan
Sat Jun 27, 2020 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Where should my nephew go to college?
Replies: 54
Views: 3139

Re: Where should my nephew go to college?

I am a big proponent of Plutarch's idea that it is not the places that grace men, but men places [/b], and have brought my kids up that way. I am also familiar with the Dale/Krueger study, as well as with Gladwell's big fish/small pond ideas. However, the future may not resemble the past, the peer g...
by Vulcan
Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: phone service through Comcast
Replies: 15
Views: 960

Re: phone service through Comcast

tiburblium wrote:
Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:46 pm
Have you considered Ooma instead?

https://www.ooma.com/home-phone-service/
Google Voice is free and with this one time $50 investment provides unbeatable value and functionality:

https://www.amazon.com/Obihai-OBi200-Ad ... B07FCS1NGM
by Vulcan
Sat Jun 27, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth: Vanguard Leaning More On ETFs
Replies: 35
Views: 3213

Re: Allan Roth: Vanguard Leaning More On ETFs

Yep, for sure. I like ETFs myself for their portability. I am happy at Vanguard, but also am able to bolt to another brokerage swiftly, with no time out of market. You can do it with MFs too. Just have to convert the shares first, which takes a day with no time out of the market and no tax conseque...
by Vulcan
Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?
Replies: 30
Views: 1765

Re: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?

Well, of 23 national stock markets included in the Dimson & Marsh study ( Triumph of the Optimists and subsequent Credit Suisse Global Returns yearbooks, two of them went to zero. (And in fact, very foolishly, I only realized recently that they simply omit the data for 1923 from their German time s...
by Vulcan
Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Choosing a university/college for my son a future Computer Science Major
Replies: 117
Views: 8911

Re: Choosing a university/college for my son a future Computer Science Major

Go to Ohio state. With his act scores he gets in state tuition. Go bucks! I'm interested in this. What is the criteria for getting in state tuition at osu as an out of state? OSU's merit scholarships are listed here, but be aware that the ACT scores they list are minimums necessary for consideratio...
by Vulcan
Mon Jun 22, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Keeping documents safe
Replies: 20
Views: 1324

Re: Keeping documents safe

Irreplaceable (documents and some artifacts from the "old country") or hard to replace originals are in the safe deposit box at a local bank (they still allow lobby access by same day appointment). Electronic copies on multiple media at home, in the safe deposit box, and in the cloud. Passports and ...
by Vulcan
Fri Jun 05, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 422
Views: 38086

Re: College in fall

With respect to students electing to defer or take a gap year...colleges that have already addressed the subject have said they will allow anyone to take a gap year but there is no guarantee of housing upon return. More important for campuses with strong residential life/houses/colleges. Some even ...
by Vulcan
Sat May 30, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 422
Views: 38086

Re: College in fall

This tactic will undoubtedly affect the way people view colleges if this in fact occurs. Perhaps, but if these universities can blame their state's authorities for forcing them to move online, they will have plausible deniability. The bottom line is that in the current environment at least, univers...
by Vulcan
Sat May 30, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 422
Views: 38086

Re: College in fall

The CDC has been very clear that there are serious concerns about the accuracy of antibody tests. So much so, that they are very adamant that they should not be used to influence policy. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-warns-that-half-of-coronavirus-antibody-test-results-are-wrong-2020-05-27/. htt...
by Vulcan
Sat May 30, 2020 11:25 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 422
Views: 38086

Re: College in fall

IFR and CFR are commonly confused. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate#Infection_fatality_rate "The term infection fatality rate (IFR) also applies to infectious disease outbreaks, and represents the proportion of deaths among all the infected individuals. It is closely related to the ...
by Vulcan
Sat May 30, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 422
Views: 38086

Re: College in fall

Current best estimate of IFR (infection fatality rate) is approx 0.6%. That gives approx. 200K deaths per 10% of infected US population (i.e. 1M if 50% are infected, 2M if almost all are infected). Based on these numbers we can deduct that we are currently at approx 5% infection rate. The Infection...
by Vulcan
Fri May 29, 2020 11:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 422
Views: 38086

Re: College in fall

Between 1 million and 5 million? Seems a little extreme. It depends greatly on how many people have actually been exposed already. The number of confirmed cases is about 1.76 million with 103k fatalities. If the actual number of cases is about triple that at 5 million, and about 300 million need ex...
by Vulcan
Thu May 28, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 422
Views: 38086

Re: College in fall

These other countries have really tiny population.

Nauru, pop 11,000? I am sure some towns in American deep South can put their BMI to shame :)
by Vulcan
Tue May 26, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening
Replies: 153
Views: 8816

Re: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening

If the user types in the new code, what difference does it make whether it's good for 30 seconds or 10 minutes? A hacker sends you a legitimate looking email with a link to "vamguard.com" - and you click on it thinking that it's actually "vanguard.com". The website is designed to look exactly the s...
by Vulcan
Mon May 25, 2020 2:23 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening
Replies: 153
Views: 8816

Re: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening

I switched my 2fa to google voice secured by a google key. I feel this gives the best security aside from completely going to a key system. +1 Or Googe Fi if you use them as your carrier. I use Google Fi as my carrier with my Google Account secured with Yubi keys. A backup key is stored in a safe d...
by Vulcan
Mon May 25, 2020 2:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening
Replies: 153
Views: 8816

Re: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening

the only solid 2FA is when you use google authenticator. 2FA using a phone is very weak and can be hacked. So be very careful Google Authenticator doesn't offer backup. Authy does. "Authy"? I think not. You don't need to back up your 2FA on 3rd party servers. Just save screenshots of barcodes as yo...
by Vulcan
Sun May 24, 2020 6:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening
Replies: 153
Views: 8816

Re: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening

Isn't this just reinforcement for why you should never use "real" answers for security questions? Institutions taking security seriously use secret questions as a mere gatekeeper to sending a password reset link to your registered email or code to your phone. You can't reset, say, your Vanguard's p...
by Vulcan
Sun May 24, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening
Replies: 153
Views: 8816

Re: Investors: be aware of weakness in 2FA + strengthening

mhalley wrote:
Sun May 24, 2020 12:29 pm
I switched my 2fa to google voice secured by a google key. I feel this gives the best security aside from completely going to a key system.
+1

Or Googe Fi if you use them as your carrier.
by Vulcan
Sat May 23, 2020 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 422
Views: 38086

Re: College in fall

Ive made it clear to the admissions officers of my HS senior's college that should they go all or mostly online we simply will not pay or enroll our daughter. As a STEM major / athlete, an online approach is simply unacceptable and would be catastrophic. No thank you. Many of my friends with HS sen...
by Vulcan
Tue May 19, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 422
Views: 38086

Re: College in fall

"There will be no face-to-face lectures at the University of Cambridge over the course of the next academic year due to coronavirus, it has been announced."

https://www.bbc.com/news/education-52732814
by Vulcan
Tue May 19, 2020 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 422
Views: 38086

Re: College in fall

Ive made it clear to the admissions officers of my HS senior's college that should they go all or mostly online we simply will not pay or enroll our daughter. As a STEM major / athlete, an online approach is simply unacceptable and would be catastrophic. No thank you. Many of my friends with HS sen...
by Vulcan
Mon May 18, 2020 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: FTC: Free credit reports weekly?
Replies: 5
Views: 432

Re: FTC: Free credit reports weekly?

Credit Karma shows two out of three in one place, refreshed weekly, complete with credit score.

Since I signed up years ago, I stopped pulling those official annual reports.
by Vulcan
Mon May 18, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: College in fall
Replies: 422
Views: 38086

Re: College in fall

The current recession will, I suspect, lead to stronger college enrollments than we would have seen otherwise over the course of the next several years. There will likely be a dip this fall, but I fully expect the numbers to rebound significantly in 2021 and 2022. When great employment prospects ar...
by Vulcan
Mon May 18, 2020 4:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Password vault or generator?
Replies: 86
Views: 5035

Re: Password vault or generator?

Surprised no one mentioned Chrome's built-in password manager. It works across all devices without additional installs or configuration so long as you use Chrome browser. I much prefer the simplicity and portability it offers to any third-party alternatives that may not even be free. And I trust Go...
by Vulcan
Mon May 18, 2020 4:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 195
Views: 13084

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Don't confuse strategy with outcome.

The correct strategy is knowable in advance. The outcome is not.
by Vulcan
Sun May 17, 2020 9:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Password vault or generator?
Replies: 86
Views: 5035

Re: Password vault or generator?

Surprised no one mentioned Chrome's built-in password manager. It works across all devices without additional installs or configuration so long as you use Chrome browser. I much prefer the simplicity and portability it offers to any third-party alternatives that may not even be free. And I trust Goo...
by Vulcan
Sat May 16, 2020 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL
Replies: 245
Views: 8769

Re: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL

buy VT instead? it's 0.02% cheaper too. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=148757#p2223489 wow, all of that is self-inflicted. divide your money by the current share price and enter that in. execute at market price (why are you buying illiquid ETFs for you to be concerned about spread...
by Vulcan
Fri May 15, 2020 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL
Replies: 245
Views: 8769

Re: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL

Vulcan wrote:
Fri May 15, 2020 9:27 pm
And premium/discount is not the same thing as spread.

Honestly, most people trading ETFs have no slightest idea what they are dealing with.

Bogle was right.
This is now being discussed in this recent thread:

viewtopic.php?p=5254094#p5254094
by Vulcan
Fri May 15, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL
Replies: 245
Views: 8769

Re: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL

sigh. once this happens to my account i'm outta there. why would i stay with vanguard when fidelity/schwab have a better offering? What is their equivalent of VTWAX? buy VT instead? it's 0.02% cheaper too. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=148757#p2223489 wow, all of that is self-inf...
by Vulcan
Fri May 15, 2020 9:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL
Replies: 245
Views: 8769

Re: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL

sigh. once this happens to my account i'm outta there. why would i stay with vanguard when fidelity/schwab have a better offering? What is their equivalent of VTWAX? Buying VT via fractional shares at Fidelity commission free. Perhaps depending when I buy it, may even get a better intraday price di...
by Vulcan
Fri May 15, 2020 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL
Replies: 245
Views: 8769

Re: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL

bling wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 6:04 pm
Vulcan wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 9:58 am
bling wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 7:48 pm
sigh. once this happens to my account i'm outta there. why would i stay with vanguard when fidelity/schwab have a better offering?
What is their equivalent of VTWAX?
buy VT instead? it's 0.02% cheaper too.
viewtopic.php?t=148757#p2223489
by Vulcan
Thu May 14, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL
Replies: 245
Views: 8769

Re: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL

bling wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 7:48 pm
sigh. once this happens to my account i'm outta there. why would i stay with vanguard when fidelity/schwab have a better offering?
What is their equivalent of VTWAX?
by Vulcan
Sat May 02, 2020 12:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 2-factor authentication becoming mandatory and available for non-US
Replies: 65
Views: 5123

Re: Vanguard 2-factor authentication becoming mandatory and available for non-US

Good for Vanguard. :beer 2FA isn't "minimal" extra security, properly implemented it eliminates phishing attacks: https://security.googleblog.com/2019/05/new-research-how-effective-is-basic.html Now if Vanguard will just let customers use *only* Yubikeys without the phone fallback. Its been a coupl...