Search found 145 matches

by Vulcan
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36475

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

No matter how efficient the market is, it cannot change the fact that a European investor buying European stocks with euros experiences less risk than a US investor buying those identical European stocks with dollars, and that a US investor buying US stocks in dollars experiences less risk and the ...
by Vulcan
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36475

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Yet the people holding non-Australian stocks don't seem to be working hard to find reasons ... it's almost as if they think that no reason is even needed to invest in worse-performing countries like the US. Indexing the US market did not violate the basic principle of the Boglehead strategy which i...
by Vulcan
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36475

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

There's a potentially big gulf between attempting to instantly price in all relevant information in the markets and actually doing so. Doesn't have to be instant in our case. Just over the next 30 years. In the case of international equities, using all available data in Portfolio Visualizer (1986 u...
by Vulcan
Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36475

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

The problem with using valuations to predict future returns is that valuations are not reliably mean reverting. Valuations can remain relatively high for a long time (since 1992 for U.S.) or low for a long time. Past performance, however, is a sure bet! Of course not, and I've never said that it wa...
by Vulcan
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36475

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If folks are truly worried about U.S. currency or markets tanking, precious metals may well be a better diversifier than international equities, which history has shown are at least moderately correlated with U.S. equities. They certainly have been over the last 30+ years. Precious metals are not p...
by Vulcan
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36475

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

willthrill81 wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:51 pm
The problem with using valuations to predict future returns is that valuations are not reliably mean reverting. Valuations can remain relatively high for a long time (since 1992 for U.S.) or low for a long time.
Past performance, however, is a sure bet!
by Vulcan
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36475

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If folks are truly worried about U.S. currency or markets tanking, precious metals may well be a better diversifier than international equities, which history has shown are at least moderately correlated with U.S. equities. They certainly have been over the last 30+ years. Precious metals are not p...
by Vulcan
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36475

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

For better or worse, investing in international comes down to conjecture and person opinion. There is no single objective 'truth' on either side of the fence. The truth is, a domestic-only portfolio is a concentrated bet. So far it has paid out. As to why, and, more importantly, whether it will con...
by Vulcan
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36475

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

So now one of the arguments for international is that the US dollar might collapse, while the rest of the world hums along....surely no one actually believes that. Not very many people believed Soviet Union could collapse. And then, one night, it did. Yet things do not have to be that dramatic for ...
by Vulcan
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36475

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Currency risk is related to fluctuations in exchange rates. It only exists across borders, i.e. when investing internationally. There is no currency risk involved if you use dollars to invest in dollar-denominated assets. The risk of a local currency collapse is not "currency risk." Venezuelans try...
by Vulcan
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36475

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I will be the first to admit I do not understand the "currency risk" mantra. Why is holding foreign currency-denominated assets inherently riskier than holding USD-denominated ones, all other things being equal? Doesn't that assume there is no risk if USD ends up on the wrong side of the trade? If ...
by Vulcan
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36475

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

No matter how efficient the market is, it cannot change the fact that a European investor buying European stocks with euros experiences less risk than a US investor buying those identical European stocks with dollars, and that a US investor buying US stocks in dollars experiences less risk and the ...
by Vulcan
Tue Aug 14, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 613
Views: 36475

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

It's all priced in. Invest in Total World Stock and don't look at what's inside.
by Vulcan
Sun Aug 12, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 3 funds now, or start off with 2?
Replies: 17
Views: 1126

Re: 3 funds now, or start off with 2?

Consider Vanguard Total World Stock Index (MF or ETF) as a single zero maintenance stock holding.
by Vulcan
Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)
Replies: 667
Views: 57566

Re: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)

Total Stock Market/Total Intl is old news. Total World is where it's at, and for all my preference for MFs over ETFs, VT is hard to beat for maintenance-free stock holding (Admiral shares would be nice though). 0.1% is well within the range of tracking error and is not worth further attempts to opti...
by Vulcan
Fri Jul 27, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay for college with cash flow
Replies: 78
Views: 5038

Re: Pay for college with cash flow

willthrill81 wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 6:44 pm
Vulcan wrote:
Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:31 pm
Using taxable funds to pay off mortgage never reduces aid, and in many cases (all FAFSA schools and some CSS schools) makes assets disappear from aid calculations.
Yes, but the key to your statement is "taxable funds."
Tax-advantaged space needs to be consumed first, of course.
by Vulcan
Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay for college with cash flow
Replies: 78
Views: 5038

Re: Pay for college with cash flow

The article most certainly does not say the opposite of what I said above. Would you explain why? It says that home equity can reduce financial aid. If you pay off a mortgage, you increase your home equity. Using taxable funds to pay off mortgage never reduces aid, and in many cases (all FAFSA scho...
by Vulcan
Fri Jul 27, 2018 5:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay for college with cash flow
Replies: 78
Views: 5038

Re: Pay for college with cash flow

Why would you pay off a low-interest mortgage when it is possible that you may need to take a more expensive student loan later? Paying off mortgage effectively hides assets from FAFSA, and some of the CSS Profile schools http://www.thecollegesolution.com/home-equity-impact-financial-aid Actually, ...
by Vulcan
Fri Jul 27, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay for college with cash flow
Replies: 78
Views: 5038

Re: Pay for college with cash flow

KlangFool wrote:
Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:47 am
Why would you pay off a low-interest mortgage when it is possible that you may need to take a more expensive student loan later?
Paying off mortgage effectively hides assets from FAFSA, and some of the CSS Profile schools
http://www.thecollegesolution.com/home- ... ancial-aid
by Vulcan
Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feel like I'm sinking money into international
Replies: 100
Views: 11212

Re: Feel like I'm sinking money into international

While I never re-evaluated the decision I made long ago to stick to global market weights on US/Intl, I recently decided that maintaining and tracking that allocation was causing complexity and unwelcome mental accounting that can be easily avoided by investing into Vanguard Total World Stock Index...
by Vulcan
Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Feel like I'm sinking money into international
Replies: 100
Views: 11212

Re: Feel like I'm sinking money into international

Began investing in 2013 with an allocation of 25% in total international. As most of my investments are in retirement accounts, my IPS tells me to rebalance with new investments. For example, as of today, I have to put in another 10k to make it 25% despite just sticking all of my 2018 IRA contribut...
by Vulcan
Sun Jul 01, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Actively managed international funds vs index international funds.
Replies: 14
Views: 1582

Re: Actively managed international funds vs index international funds.

Well, the guys who invented passive investing state that EMH is foundational to their work. So there is that. As a point to focus on, why do we invest in the stock market instead of bonds or the lottery? EMH is one of the key assumptions on why we except stocks to have a positive return. I am not a...
by Vulcan
Sun Jul 01, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Actively managed international funds vs index international funds.
Replies: 14
Views: 1582

Re: Actively managed international funds vs index international funds.

alex_686 wrote:
Sat Jun 30, 2018 4:32 pm
Passive investing rests on the Efficient Market Hypothesis. What if the market is not efficient?
Not true.
Passive investors get market average returns even if the markets are not efficient.
It's just math.
by Vulcan
Thu May 10, 2018 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?
Replies: 70
Views: 6227

Re: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?

That's handing out false information. It is just the sp500 not the sp500 + dividends. There is a big difference between the two. At least read the story you linked. If you torture the data enough it will tell you anything. A certain type of risky bond was able to achieve according to some sources 1...
by Vulcan
Thu May 10, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Fire/Burglar Safe
Replies: 21
Views: 1520

Re: Home Fire/Burglar Safe

A moderately sized safe deposit box at a nearby B&M bank will cost no more than $50/year and will not be subject to risk from fires or motivated burglars. That is where we keep things that are difficult or impossible to replace (important documents, offsite data backups, etc). Make sure the bank wh...
by Vulcan
Thu May 10, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?
Replies: 70
Views: 6227

Re: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?

I wouldn't assume that stocks will beat bonds or the next 10 years or even 20. Didn't we just recently finish a 30year period where bonds beat stocks ? No we most certainly didn't. https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=88293#p1268227 That's handing out false information. It is just the s...
by Vulcan
Thu May 10, 2018 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Fire/Burglar Safe
Replies: 21
Views: 1520

Re: Home Fire/Burglar Safe

A moderately sized safe deposit box at a nearby B&M bank will cost no more than $50/year and will not be subject to risk from fires or motivated burglars. That is where we keep things that are difficult or impossible to replace (important documents, offsite data backups, etc). A couple years ago, I...
by Vulcan
Thu May 10, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?
Replies: 70
Views: 6227

Re: How do you quantify the risk differential between 85/15 and 70/30?

CnC wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 11:03 am
dziuniek wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 10:48 am
I wouldn't assume that stocks will beat bonds or the next 10 years or even 20.

Didn't we just recently finish a 30year period where bonds beat stocks ?
No we most certainly didn't.
viewtopic.php?t=88293#p1268227
by Vulcan
Thu May 10, 2018 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Home Fire/Burglar Safe
Replies: 21
Views: 1520

Re: Home Fire/Burglar Safe

My safe is minimally fireproof . My goal was to keep young kids(at the time) and casual smash and grab burglars out. Two relevant anecdotes. A friend of mine came home from a vacation to find his house burned to the ground. When he opened the fireproof safe he found the ashes of paper documents and...
by Vulcan
Wed May 09, 2018 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on safety of ETFs
Replies: 32
Views: 2284

Re: Question on safety of ETFs

Texanbybirth wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 2:37 pm
Gnothi seauton
Yes. That is very true (had to look that up;)

The most important lesson I learned from holding some ETFs for a period of time is that ETFs are not for me. The more I understand them, the more I don't like them emotionally:)
by Vulcan
Wed May 09, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on safety of ETFs
Replies: 32
Views: 2284

Re: Question on safety of ETFs

I know you and I have been at this before, but for the new readers asking themselves this question (ETF or MF) I would say, if you have to ask, you don't need ETFs and should stick to mutual funds. Situations where ETFs have benefits are pretty esoteric and for most long term buy and hold investors...
by Vulcan
Wed May 09, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on safety of ETFs
Replies: 32
Views: 2284

Re: Question on safety of ETFs

I would remove VSS. I have a great deal of fear when trading VSS. And what is your source of paranoia with VSS? Dale "Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they're not after you" disclaimer: I still use VSS, I just approach it with a great deal of respect and caution. This (premium/discount) is...
by Vulcan
Wed May 02, 2018 9:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: My 2017 CRV is a victim of the dreaded oil gas-dilution issue
Replies: 354
Views: 57307

Re: My 2017 CRV is a victim of the dreaded oil gas-dilution issue

I believe it is the same 1.5 liter turbo motor as the the Accord from 2018 but it also is in the 2016+ Civic which has been around for a while so check to see how those have been running and any fixes there. The turbo in their engines is here to stay for a while and Hondas are very reputable so bel...
by Vulcan
Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid a bad day on ETF conversion to MF [Mutual fund]
Replies: 11
Views: 868

Re: How to avoid a bad day on ETF conversion to MF

So you're going to convert back to MF and possibly back to ETF again in the future? Seems complicated. What I plan to do is convert enough MF shares to ETF for the bonus, but keep a lot of MF at Vanguard. I will do all my investing at Vanguard (using MFs) and simply park the ETFs at the bonus broke...
by Vulcan
Sat Apr 21, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid a bad day on ETF conversion to MF [Mutual fund]
Replies: 11
Views: 868

Re: How to avoid a bad day on ETF conversion to MF

Vulcan wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:58 pm
Great advice on TDAmeritrade charts. Don't know why I didn't check there! Thanks!
Actually. I did check, but couldn't find it. When I just search for it, it tells me "no results found".
Apparently, you have to go into charts first, then search there.
by Vulcan
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid a bad day on ETF conversion to MF [Mutual fund]
Replies: 11
Views: 868

Re: How to avoid a bad day on ETF conversion to MF

I understand your preference for the latter. While I have a hard time empathizing with the complexity aspect, I recognize that I'm in no position to judge your preferred level of simplicity. Still, if it were me, I would sell just enough VXUS to buy $10k of VTIAX (or even $3,000 of VGTSX) and start...
by Vulcan
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid a bad day on ETF conversion to MF [Mutual fund]
Replies: 11
Views: 868

Re: How to avoid a bad day on ETF conversion to MF

JustinR wrote:
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:26 pm
Are you no longer doing brokerage bonuses then? Did you find them to be too much of a hassle?
I saw no other attractive enough bonuses available to me. If I ever decide to play this game again I can always convert to ETF at NAV.
by Vulcan
Sat Apr 21, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid a bad day on ETF conversion to MF [Mutual fund]
Replies: 11
Views: 868

Re: How to avoid a bad day on ETF conversion to MF

I have brought my VXUS shares back to Vanguard from TDA and am about to sell them to buy VTIAX Sorry, I know that you wrote a lot about your concern, but I have to go to the basics: why are you doing this? I can't see any reason whatsoever for it. I presume the question is about my reasons for conv...
by Vulcan
Sat Apr 21, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid a bad day on ETF conversion to MF [Mutual fund]
Replies: 11
Views: 868

How to avoid a bad day on ETF conversion to MF [Mutual fund]

I have brought my VXUS shares back to Vanguard from TDA and am about to sell them to buy VTIAX, but I found that VXUS-IV chart on Yahoo finance no longer works, at least for me. Does anyone still use it? Is there an alternative? In the meantime, I built a VXUS/VTIAX price ratio chart in Google Docs ...
by Vulcan
Fri Apr 20, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much off MSRP should one expect?
Replies: 23
Views: 2591

Re: How much off MSRP should one expect?

MSRP is irrelevant. Negotiate down from Invoice +$200.
by Vulcan
Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dramatic decline in VTSMX small cap holdings?
Replies: 7
Views: 1174

Re: Dramatic decline in VTSMX small cap holdings?

I cannot provide source link for prior portfolio composition at Morningstar. Each time I rebalance, I always check portfolio composition at Morningstar and record it in my notes. For years, small plus micro has been at or above 9%. Bogleheads wiki seems to agree as of 27 Dec 2017 https://www.bogleh...
by Vulcan
Mon Apr 09, 2018 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Purepoint now 1.6%
Replies: 16
Views: 2489

Re: Purepoint now 1.6%

DollarSavingsDirect is 1.80% APR
by Vulcan
Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which tax software for 2017?
Replies: 20
Views: 1660

Re: Which tax software for 2017?

Lieutenant.Columbo wrote:
Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:47 am
does Credit Karma help filing taxes for taxable investments and backdoor IRA? thank you
I believe so (they support 1099 and 8606 forms)
Federal Forms supported by Credit Karma Tax
https://help.creditkarma.com/hc/en-us/a ... -Karma-Tax
by Vulcan
Sat Jan 20, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Which tax software for 2017?
Replies: 20
Views: 1660

Re: Which tax software for 2017?

I've been very pleased with Credit Karma's tax offering last year and plan to use it going forward. It is completely free, including state filing, no strings attached.
by Vulcan
Sun Dec 10, 2017 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin
Replies: 64
Views: 4985

Re: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin

How is bitcoin different from hundreds of other available crypto currencies?
by Vulcan
Wed Nov 29, 2017 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 11360

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

Another entertainment post here. Is there any wise bogle's who have seen or even felt any of the previous crashes coming? And if so, what makes you feel that "something is not right here", and have you done anything about here? The reason I am asking this is that I wasn't in US before 2012, and I h...