Search found 438 matches

by dl7848
Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Toys for a Lazy Cat
Replies: 46
Views: 6374

Re: Toys for a Lazy Cat

kaudrey wrote:Love the cat pic! My cat LOVES boxes.
There's no limit to the things cats can do with boxes, but I think this video is pretty funny:

Cat and Box

It's a cat named Maru with some sort of diet soda box. He uses the box to skid across the floor. Looks like fun. :D
by dl7848
Mon Jul 07, 2014 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguards Devil's Advocate
Replies: 55
Views: 9334

Re: Re:

d
by dl7848
Thu Jul 03, 2014 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Wellesley's Equities Outperform?
Replies: 41
Views: 7194

Re: Do Wellesley's Equities Outperform?

"Past performance does not predict future performance." Best wishes. Taylor Doesn't the old adage that past performance not predicting future results also apply to index funds? That saying, if taken literally, would suggest that just because, in the past, index funds have beaten the majority of act...
by dl7848
Wed Jul 02, 2014 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I'm worthless [Net worth is zero]
Replies: 33
Views: 6241

Re: I'm worthless

Here's hoping LadyGeek retitles this thread. :)

I keep opening it bc I keep forgetting what it's about. :D
by dl7848
Wed Jul 02, 2014 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: "Average investors don't settle for average?"

Maybe start a new thread on Emerging Bonds versus Emerging Stocks. Past 15 years have been a big win for the bonds but you could say the same thing about US bonds versus US stocks. My market timing sense is that EM bonds are going to struggle to come close to the last 15 years performance but EM st...
by dl7848
Wed Jul 02, 2014 8:48 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: elder care legal question
Replies: 13
Views: 1681

Re: elder care legal question

She must be able to walk up and down 4 steps unassisted on her own power. This is the yardstick for being able to get into the house, be able to negotiate the front steps to get into her house. No expertise here, but that first requirement seems a bit silly since it could be satisfied by installing...
by dl7848
Wed Jul 02, 2014 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: Individual vs. Professional investors.

Morningstar gives star ratings to mutual funds and also has analyst picks of their favorite funds. How has a portfolio based on stars or picks in each asset class done compared to an index portfolio? If Morningstar's professionals cannot pick good funds, there is little reason to believe many indiv...
by dl7848
Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: Individual vs. Professional investors.

But that doesn't take away from the fact that those who have the time, the ability and the interest to research active investments can and do outperform the market averages. di7848: Why does the average mutual fund manager who has the "time, ability, and the interest to research active investments"...
by dl7848
Wed Jul 02, 2014 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: "Average investors don't settle for average?"

One of the main reason why active managers under perform indexes is due to mass psychology. When Bill Miller or Bill Gross outperforms for a couple of years investors pour money into their funds resulting in either the manager relaxing their criteria to pick stocks/bonds or parking the money in cas...
by dl7848
Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "most [] research findings in financ[e] are likely false"
Replies: 63
Views: 6258

Re: "most [] research findings in financ[e] are likely false"

Scientific inquiry is intended to be as objective as possible in order to minimize bias. Another basic expectation is the documentation, archiving and sharing of all data collected or produced and of the methodologies used so they may be available for careful scrutiny and attempts by other scientis...
by dl7848
Wed Jul 02, 2014 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: "Average investors don't settle for average?"

The only generalizations that can be made about active investors is that they don't settle for "average", which is what passive investors do. Not really. Passive investors know that "average" investors usually outperform "active" investors. The arithmetic is irrefutable. Best wishes. Taylor The ope...
by dl7848
Wed Jul 02, 2014 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds

Investors who are serious about active investing do a lot of research into funds and portfolio managers. Studies that compare active vs passive management seem to assume that investors pick the average or mediocre funds. My thinking is that for all the intellectual energy spent on a board like this...
by dl7848
Tue Jul 01, 2014 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds

I don't want to beat this too much since it is off topic, but that is the exact same logic people use for active management of stock funds. If you look at the returns of the em bond index funds (unfortunately the ones I am aware of only have 5 year data), they cluster in the same place stock index ...
by dl7848
Mon Jun 30, 2014 8:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds

Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond Index Fund Admiral Shares has 1.7% in Ukraine bonds to go along with 11% in russian bonds and bunch of other stuff with 9%+ coupons. Okay, so Ukraine is represented, but not in a way that would benefit from the current situation. I am sure the skilled manag...
by dl7848
Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds

And as for US bond index funds, US government and govt agency backed debt results in ~70% of your investment being in that sector. Many entities are buying US government debt not because it's a good value or yield but because there is simply no other liquid fixed-income option to soak up the amount...
by dl7848
Mon Jun 30, 2014 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds

How is he taking advantage of them in a way an index fund does? The GIM manager is taking advantage of Ukrainian bond yields -- something an index fund with a fixed set of countries cannot do. (Ukraine isn't in any bond index that I'm aware of.) An active manager has the flexibility to take advanta...
by dl7848
Mon Jun 30, 2014 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds

By the same logic US bonds also provide better risk adjusted returns than US stocks. Look at 2000-2013: TSM CAGR 4.22 STD 20.44 worst year -37% TBM CAGR 5.43 STD 5.42 worst year -2.26% We don't look at it that way since we have 100 years of history to look at where we can see various market cycles....
by dl7848
Mon Jun 30, 2014 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds

I'm in about the same place myself. I'm also troubled by Dr. Bernstein's use of the often repeated slogan to 'take your risk on the equity side.' Many experts say this, but despite trying, I haven't yet found any academic research that supports it. IMO, stocks and bonds are both potentially risky a...
by dl7848
Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: Differences of Opinion.

I'm talking about market timing, which as I've mentioned appears to be allowed. dl7848: Bogleheads welcome differences of opinion. It is how we learn. This is an important part of our Forum Policy : This is a moderated forum. We expect this forum to be a place where people can feel comfortable aski...
by dl7848
Sun Jun 29, 2014 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected returns of closed-end muni bond funds
Replies: 15
Views: 2401

Re: Expected returns of closed-end muni bond funds

So is the expected return of these funds about 6%, and if it is lower, how much lower? I understand that their share prices will fall if long term muni bond yields rise, but they would rise if rates fall. Another risk is that short term rates rise, which would raise the cost of borrowing. But if a ...
by dl7848
Sun Jun 29, 2014 8:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Two-Fund SVIT Portfolios - Higher Returns and Lower Risk
Replies: 110
Views: 11634

Re: The Two-Fund SVIT Portfolios - Higher Returns and Lower

Remember: if it really works, and it is widely known, some computer somewhere will arb out all the alpha. Maybe with a SV index, but not necessarily in the case of investors/funds who buy individual stocks of their own choice....without any connection to an index. Especially in the microcap realm. ...
by dl7848
Sun Jun 29, 2014 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worth it to eliminate counterparty risk with Treasuries?
Replies: 17
Views: 1575

Re: Worth it to eliminate counterparty risk with Treasuries?

By process of elimination, this must mean that my brokerage is lending out my shares. Not to sidetrack the thread, but which brokerage do you use? And do you actually use the margin account or is it something you had to do to make the brokerage account "work right"? Fidelity is the brokerage and I ...
by dl7848
Sun Jun 29, 2014 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worth it to eliminate counterparty risk with Treasuries?
Replies: 17
Views: 1575

Re: Worth it to eliminate counterparty risk with Treasuries?

Vanguard does engage in Securities Lending. So in that sense, there are counterparties. One would need to look at the prospectus or SAI to find out whether a particular Treasury fund engages is securities lending. The one I know for sure is EDV. I looked at the "Statement of Operations" for this fu...
by dl7848
Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Want to Save Money? Be Polite!
Replies: 41
Views: 8316

Re: Being Polite.

d
by dl7848
Sun Jun 29, 2014 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With Intnational Bonds

I've long been an advocate of a permanent allocation to foreign bonds and I've held 20 percent of our portfolio's bonds in foreign bonds for over a decade. However in my opinion if there's a sound argument against foreign bonds right now, this market timing argument is it. After reading months of p...
by dl7848
Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With International Bonds
Replies: 112
Views: 15900

Re: Bernstein: Don’t Bother With Intnational Bonds

Unhedged foreign bonds are more volatile than a US only total bond fund. However, Bogleheads know that analysis of an asset class in isolation is a mistake (TM - Larry S.). The focus should be on the impact at the portfolio level. Yep, and the more common question is whether or not to include emerg...
by dl7848
Sat Jun 28, 2014 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Two-Fund SVIT Portfolios - Higher Returns and Lower Risk
Replies: 110
Views: 11634

Re: The Two-Fund SVIT Portfolios - Higher Returns and Lower

I have talked with many asset managers and they don't want to hold stocks of this size due to liquidity issues of having to sell if there is a redemption. The fund I referenced earlier (ICMAX) got around this because the manager had a predilection for holding cash when perceived discounts weren't a...
by dl7848
Sat Jun 28, 2014 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Rachel is everywhere!
Replies: 10
Views: 1887

Re: Rachel is everywhere!

I must be doing something right. I've never gotten calls from Rachel.

Heather from Account Services calls every now and then. But it's changed from once a month to once every three years. I just started ignoring Heather, and she apparently stomped off in a huff. :D
by dl7848
Sat Jun 28, 2014 1:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Two-Fund SVIT Portfolios - Higher Returns and Lower Risk
Replies: 110
Views: 11634

Re: The Two-Fund SVIT Portfolios - Higher Returns and Lower

Remember: if it really works, and it is widely known, some computer somewhere will arb out all the alpha. Maybe with a SV index, but not necessarily in the case of investors/funds who buy individual stocks of their own choice....without any connection to an index. Especially in the microcap realm. ...
by dl7848
Sat Jun 28, 2014 12:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Two-Fund SVIT Portfolios - Higher Returns and Lower Risk
Replies: 110
Views: 11634

Re: The Two-Fund SVIT Portfolios - Higher Returns and Lower

My issue is with the characterization of the total market as being efficient when the reality this applies primarily to larger stocks that the billion dollar hedge manager would be trading in and not to the larger number of smaller issues that individuals can purchase. From personal experience and ...
by dl7848
Fri Jun 27, 2014 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worth it to eliminate counterparty risk with Treasuries?
Replies: 17
Views: 1575

Re: Worth it to eliminate counterparty risk with Treasuries?

Vanguard does engage in Securities Lending. So in that sense, there are counterparties. One would need to look at the prospectus or SAI to find out whether a particular Treasury fund engages is securities lending. The one I know for sure is EDV.
by dl7848
Fri Jun 27, 2014 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling the Worst Case for Stocks
Replies: 41
Views: 4775

Re: Modeling the Worst Case for Stocks

Right. That is scary. But I was primarily addressing the non-reversion to mean. The stock I posted went to almost zero and has stayed there for over five years. IOW, it hasn't recovered, and it shows no signs of recovering. That is far worse than a big drop and a rapid recovery. I'm not sure it fai...
by dl7848
Fri Jun 27, 2014 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some questions/clarification about risk and diversification
Replies: 13
Views: 1167

Re: Some questions/clarification about risk and diversificat

Without bonds, you ride the equity markets up and down like a roller-coaster. Not particularly efficient and often taxing emotionally. Lots of opportunity cost. With bonds, you can take edvantage of market crashes by buying more equities and take advantage of market blow offs by selling some equiti...
by dl7848
Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed Income and Diversification
Replies: 7
Views: 1023

Re: Fixed Income and Diversification

60% of my portfolio is held in bonds. These bonds are held solely within Vanguard’s Total Bond Fund. Having placed all my bond eggs in one fund basket, is my bond component sufficiently diversified? Are your bonds just for safety and to balance your stocks? Then yes, they are diversified and you pr...
by dl7848
Fri Jun 27, 2014 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling the Worst Case for Stocks
Replies: 41
Views: 4775

Re: Modeling the Worst Case for Stocks

I'm concerned that no one's yet mentioned zombies. A 50% stock drop, with no reversion to mean, gets you well into the 95% percentile of "bad things that can happen" IMO. No reason to go further. A non-reversion-to-mean happens a lot to individual stocks. It would be interesting to see if any marke...
by dl7848
Thu Jun 26, 2014 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some questions/clarification about risk and diversification
Replies: 13
Views: 1167

Re: Some questions/clarification about risk and diversificat

Without bonds, you ride the equity markets up and down like a roller-coaster. Not particularly efficient and often taxing emotionally. Lots of opportunity cost. With bonds, you can take edvantage of market crashes by buying more equities and take advantage of market blow offs by selling some equitie...
by dl7848
Thu Jun 26, 2014 10:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V
Replies: 3372
Views: 1505710

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part V

Several people here have praised the Harry Bosch series by Michael Connelly. Does one lose anything by reading them out of sequence? My library currently has only volume 3, and I have never read anything by him. "City of Bones" is the first Harry Bosch book I ever read. It got me started on the ser...
by dl7848
Thu Jun 26, 2014 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling the Worst Case for Stocks
Replies: 41
Views: 4775

Re: Modeling the Worst Case for Stocks

I'm concerned that no one's yet mentioned zombies. A 50% stock drop, with no reversion to mean, gets you well into the 95% percentile of "bad things that can happen" IMO. No reason to go further. A non-reversion-to-mean happens a lot to individual stocks. It would be interesting to see if any marke...
by dl7848
Thu Jun 26, 2014 7:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Want to Save Money? Be Polite!
Replies: 41
Views: 8316

Re: Want to Save Money? Be Polite!

I think I'm polite but I'm not friendly. :( I think polite and "businesslike" is the way to go. If we're friendly, that's just leverage to extract more of our net worth out of us. These days, if a customer service rep is friendly and you return the friendliness, they feel it's their right to put yo...
by dl7848
Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can they claim this? [Permanent Portfolio beat S&P 500]
Replies: 25
Views: 3768

Re: How can they claim this? [Permanent Portfolio beat S&P 5

Oh sure, if you were actually going to implement the Permanent Portfolio, by all means, use index funds. But using index funds doesn't really change the overall risk story, so I took the shortcut for plugging in the telltale chart. Here's PRPFX vs. the orthodox "HBPP" ETF approach. Not a huge diffe...
by dl7848
Thu Jun 26, 2014 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modeling the Worst Case for Stocks
Replies: 41
Views: 4775

Re: Modeling the Worst Case for Stocks

My goal with my tool was to help individuals assess risk tolerance. If that's all you're trying to do, just take a look at this photo. The visceral way of determining risk tolerance is probably as good as any other, if not better: http://www.therealstevegray.com/wp-content/uploads/273226-1-garrett-...
by dl7848
Wed Jun 25, 2014 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can they claim this? [Permanent Portfolio beat S&P 500]
Replies: 25
Views: 3768

Re: How can they claim this? [Permanent Portfolio beat S&P 5

Here's a summary outlining the differences between the Permanent Portfolio and PRPFX. Permanent Portfolio (a.k.a. Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio): - 25% VTI or "stocks" - 25% TLT or "long-term treasuries" - 25% SHY or "short-term treasuries" - 25% GLD or "gold" Note: the above are all ETF/index fu...
by dl7848
Wed Jun 25, 2014 4:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can they claim this? [Permanent Portfolio beat S&P 500]
Replies: 25
Views: 3768

Re: How can they claim this? [Permanent Portfolio beat S&P 5

Her'es the Permanent Portfolio (prpfx) vs the Vanguard 500 Index (vfinx) in the telltale chart: I didn't read past the above sentence. Once again, the mutual fund called PRPFX is not the Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio. They are two different animals. It's unfortunate this confusion continues to p...
by dl7848
Wed Jun 25, 2014 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How can they claim this? [Permanent Portfolio beat S&P 500]
Replies: 25
Views: 3768

Re: How can they claim this? [Permanent Portfolio beat S&P 5

Just pointing out that the Permanent Portfolio is not the same as PRPFX, the mutual fund mentioned in the OP. HERE you can find the historical returns of the PP. The claim is for a CAGR of 9.6% during the 1972-2012 time period. The cited advantage is the lower volatility. http://crawlingroad.com/blo...
by dl7848
Wed Jun 25, 2014 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Want to Save Money? Be Polite!
Replies: 41
Views: 8316

Re: Want to Save Money? Be Polite!

If you're an employee providing a service, obviously it makes the day more worthwhile when the customers are polite. But if you're a customer dealing with a service provider, competence is what's most important (to me at least). I'm pretty much indifferent to if the waiter, the customer service rep ...
by dl7848
Wed Jun 25, 2014 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 18582

Re: An Argument for Long Term Treasury Bonds

I could see it being used in the the short period as a form of insurance or hedging, where you do want to be out of the market, but don't want to sell long term holdings. Other use VIX or put options for similar purpose. I once saw an interesting (hypothetical) portfolio. It was all bonds and it wa...
by dl7848
Tue Jun 24, 2014 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Withdrawals - Behavioral Aspect
Replies: 14
Views: 1273

Re: Investment Withdrawals - Behavioral Aspect

Some retirees like dividend-generating investments.

The distributions are directed to a cash account, where the cash can be used for any reason -- paying bills, RMDs, etc. All this, without the need to sell shares.
by dl7848
Tue Jun 24, 2014 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexing in theory and practice
Replies: 28
Views: 2035

Re: Indexing in theory and practice

The mispricings these days are in the (international) bond market. I'm interested in this. Can you provide sources? Regulations -- including higher bank capital requirements and the banning of proprietary trading -- along with the continued deleveraging of European bank balance sheets and the Fed's...