Search found 262 matches

by seychellois_lib
Tue Dec 29, 2020 12:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 2020: Lessons learned
Replies: 237
Views: 15678

Re: 2020: Lessons learned

i learned how to tolerate a $30K loss in one day. Sheesh!

That was $15K more than I learned how to tolerate in 2009.

I also, thank goodness, learned how to stay the course with an AA that allowed me to sleep... except for the night of the $30K loss that is.
by seychellois_lib
Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Energy Technology and Autonomous Vehicle ETF Selection
Replies: 9
Views: 527

Re: Energy Technology and Autonomous Vehicle ETF Selection

If you know enough to tilt to this sector, you should be able to identify the main players and build your own "fund" by buying 5 - 15 individual stocks. It will be much cheaper than probably any thematic ETF you can find for this. This is partly why I asked the question, My, admittedly li...
by seychellois_lib
Mon Aug 10, 2020 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Energy Technology and Autonomous Vehicle ETF Selection
Replies: 9
Views: 527

Re: Energy Technology and Autonomous Vehicle ETF Selection

Active investing is the answer you are looking for, not passive. There are 2 problems with this. First, even if you are right you may be wrong. Sure, this is a huge growth field. Lets assume you are correct here. Has the market already priced that growth in? If it has, then you are just loading up ...
by seychellois_lib
Mon Aug 10, 2020 1:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Energy Technology and Autonomous Vehicle ETF Selection
Replies: 9
Views: 527

Re: Energy Technology and Autonomous Vehicle ETF Selection

If you know enough to tilt to this sector, you should be able to identify the main players and build your own "fund" by buying 5 - 15 individual stocks. It will be much cheaper than probably any thematic ETF you can find for this. This is partly why I asked the question, My, admittedly li...
by seychellois_lib
Mon Aug 10, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Energy Technology and Autonomous Vehicle ETF Selection
Replies: 9
Views: 527

Energy Technology and Autonomous Vehicle ETF Selection

I am retired and have no intention of significantly deviating from my relatively conservative and well diversified AA. However, developments in the Energy Technology and Autonomous Vehicle sectors are really intriguing. I recently listened to a podcast Q&A with Oliver Cameron, CEO of Voyage, an ...
by seychellois_lib
Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can't view Schwab portfolio performance in Chrome on Windows
Replies: 10
Views: 2192

Re: Can't view Schwab portfolio performance in Chrome on Windows

I am on a chromebook and have had this problem forever. Just blew it off as a mystery I didn't want to hassle with. However I finally got motivated, did a google search on the problem and it led me right to this topic. Problem solved with the third party cookie tweak suggested by earlier poster. Tha...
by seychellois_lib
Thu May 14, 2020 9:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question re deferred social security claim
Replies: 3
Views: 333

Question re deferred social security claim

I am 68 planning on claiming at 70 W is 57. Just checked "my SS" site. My SS benefit as of today and as of age 70 is in line with expectations. That is, it is growing at the expected 8% per year (approx). However W's survivor benefit is stuck at my FRA (age 66) number. I realize spousal be...
by seychellois_lib
Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12218
Views: 943815

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Not gonna happen anytime soon. Things are gonna get MUCH worse in the coming months, just wait. Okay, I'll wait. And please post all of your short positions while we both wait. No short positions. Just hoping for under 2000, preferably 1800 bottom, so I can add some Total Market. Maybe better to st...
by seychellois_lib
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Help for the Kids
Replies: 9
Views: 903

Help for the Kids

We are retired. All my adult kids have been responsible financially and have their degrees and jobs. All of them worked while in college and are reasonably frugal and have emergency funds. I am very proud of them. Unfortunately in one or two cases (we have three kids) their employment is becoming te...
by seychellois_lib
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The end of cruise ships [cruise line stock prices]
Replies: 248
Views: 27092

Re: The end of cruise ships

If I was doing crusing this is what I would be doing these days. Almost all by myself.

https://www.freighterexpeditions.com.au ... ainer-ship
by seychellois_lib
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid temptation of Stock Picking during market crash
Replies: 50
Views: 3340

Re: How to avoid temptation of Stock Picking during market crash

... How do you keep your “gambling mind” at bay when it appears there are some potential opportunities in the market? Could our “buy and hold” philosophy be applied to the above stocks/ETFs by investing in them for the long haul? I can already predict some of your replies but I am truly curious on ...
by seychellois_lib
Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So, Where Are You *Back* To in Time? (And Were You Happy Then?)
Replies: 63
Views: 4030

Re: So, Where Are You *Back* To in Time? (And Were You Happy Then?)

GoldenFinch wrote: Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:04 pm I remember how excited I was years ago when I calculated that we had exactly 200k in money and owed 200k on our mortgage giving us a net worth of exactly zero.
Ha ha, zero never looked so good :sharebeer
by seychellois_lib
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So, Where Are You *Back* To in Time? (And Were You Happy Then?)
Replies: 63
Views: 4030

Re: So, Where Are You *Back* To in Time? (And Were You Happy Then?)

Retired 4 years. I don't know what I am back to financially, but I am pretty proud of myself for being where I am today. My portfolio has weathered the storm reasonably well. I was really thinking about my (overly?) conservative 40/60 AA during the run up last year but continued to rebalance to that...
by seychellois_lib
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 65547

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

Tough to trust the Chinese numbers. US has tested 550k people so far - good work on scaling up testing. 86% of tests negative. Hard to understand this market, I will keep some dry powder available while continuing to nibble here and there. Yea, testing is really starting to ramp, almost 100K last 2...
by seychellois_lib
Thu Mar 26, 2020 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21219
Views: 2879395

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

No matter what strategy we use the virus will be dealt with. Some strategies will result in more deaths (particularly in the elderly) than others. The strategies that result in most deaths are also likely to be best for economy , hence why we see governments trying to avoid a long period of lockdow...
by seychellois_lib
Thu Mar 26, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12218
Views: 943815

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

EMH, like most economics, is a soft science, isn't it? We're dealing with people's emotions and behavior, not the gravitational constant which doesn't vary anywhere in the universe. EMH doesn't exist anywhere else in the universe nevermind not vary anywhere else in the universe. Sorry for stating t...
by seychellois_lib
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 323872

Re: Coronavirus and the market

With regard to energy production. I am sitting in my living room watching windmills spinning in the hills near my home. It occured to me those windmills are going to spin without much babysitting. Understand there is some level of routine ops. and maint. but I wonder what that level is vs a typical...
by seychellois_lib
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 323872

Re: Coronavirus and the market

With regard to energy production. I am sitting in my living room watching windmills spinning in the hills near my home. It occured to me those windmills are going to spin without much babysitting. Understand there is some level of routine ops. and maint. but I wonder what that level is vs a typical ...
by seychellois_lib
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 323872

Re: Viruses and the overall future of the stock market

I'm a physician scientist who does not pay attention to social medial and does not even watch TV "news" (I consider it entertainment, not news). Thank you. My father is a retired surgeon, and both of my older brothers are practicing physicians. I personally don't think being a doctor or k...
by seychellois_lib
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 323872

Re: Coronavirus and the market

This may have been posted previously but the best comprehensive covid19 testing and results data I have seen for USA. https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ To previous posters remarks regarding market direction. My guess as the test positives and patient deaths go up, the market is going to go down. I...
by seychellois_lib
Mon Mar 23, 2020 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wall St Journal physical delivery
Replies: 6
Views: 667

Re: Wall St Journal physical delivery

Thanks, makes sense. I'll have a paper pile then. Have you considered going digital and perhaps sending a tip (to replace the pay per paper) to your carrier? I don’t know about the WSJ, but our local paper lets us tip online. I might consider this, I just don't want the guy to feel any more financi...
by seychellois_lib
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Young investors, how do you feel about your 1st market crash?
Replies: 132
Views: 9384

Re: Young investors, how do you feel about your 1st market crash?

I'm 30, been investing 10 years. This is more or less playing out in line with what I've been prepared for by the many Bogleheads posts and finance books I've read over that time. I'm staying the course with my current investments, but keeping all new savings in cash to prepare for potential layoff...
by seychellois_lib
Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 12218
Views: 943815

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

J G Bankerton wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:02 pm
Hyperchicken wrote: Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:05 pm Since we don't have "bonds continue to soar" thread - today was the day for corporate bonds. Up 3.5/5.4/9.8% ST/IT/LT!
Sadly when that happens we are living in interesting times. :shock:
I'll tell you what's interesting times: when you thank goodness the market was only down 3%!
by seychellois_lib
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cramer on buying index funds during downturn
Replies: 56
Views: 6069

Re: Cramer on buying index funds during downturn

If Cramer really had a clue wouldn't he be retired and living next to Bill Gates on Lake Washington?

Buffett advises for free too and is (well, was) worth $80 billion. Who you going to listen to?

But I must say, I like Lake Washington better than Omaha.
by seychellois_lib
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:13 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wall St Journal physical delivery
Replies: 6
Views: 667

Re: Wall St Journal physical delivery

Thanks, makes sense. I'll have a paper pile then.
by seychellois_lib
Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: So Who IS Hiring?
Replies: 19
Views: 2598

Re: So Who IS Hiring?

Around here, grocery stores and liquor stores are hiring. +1 Same here. I'm not sure where toilet paper is manufactured, but they must be running 24/7 right now. :twisted: Probably not. They paper companies almost certainly are aware that people are buying more toilet paper than normal, but not usi...
by seychellois_lib
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Housing Market Response in this environment?
Replies: 57
Views: 7634

Re: Housing Market Response in this environment?

I sold a home two years ago. Coincidentally it was a primary residence I purchased in 2008 and got stuck with as a result of you know what. I rented it and finally sold at more or less break even in 2018. What a relief! I just received a note from my RE agent in that transaction. She requested an up...
by seychellois_lib
Mon Mar 23, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wall St Journal physical delivery
Replies: 6
Views: 667

Wall St Journal physical delivery

I am thinking of suspending my Journal physical delivery for awhile. Not cancelling but suspending. just don't want to hassle with the physical paper right now. I can access the digital version. I can't get through to the Journal so I thought someone here might have an answer to this question: If I ...
by seychellois_lib
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?
Replies: 112
Views: 9402

Re: Are current recession's comparisons to Great Depression doomer tier, accurate or understated?

Lockdown likely until June. https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2020-03-22/us-coronavirus-lockdown-to-last-10-12-weeks-top-trump-official-says I really don't see how we avoid a depression. What's the technical difference between a bad recession and a depression? Serious question. I don't know. ...
by seychellois_lib
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bank Solvency During This Crisis
Replies: 23
Views: 1602

Re: Bank Solvency During This Crisis

Banks are going to have issues, but it is not that dire. Your personal accounts should be FDIC insurance. After 2008, the Fed required that banks hold extra buffers - those are now gone. The fed has opened up the tap full flow. etc. I could go on. I'm not optimistic the FDIC insurance is going to h...
by seychellois_lib
Sun Mar 22, 2020 9:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21219
Views: 2879395

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Am I the only one amazed that, here, in America, we have to resort to this? I mean, C'mon... it seems to me our industrial might ought to be able to keep up with N95 masks. It's not like companies are being asked to make 100K ventilators (presumably more complex than a mask). Sheesh... All it took ...
by seychellois_lib
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix on market crashes
Replies: 41
Views: 2486

Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

I, for one, was 12 year old and at Military School in LA. We all thought we were going to be drafted. It was pretty intense in the adult world as I recall. You thought you were going to be drafted as 12 year old? When you are 12 you have no idea what to think. This is what the older boys were sayin...
by seychellois_lib
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix on market crashes
Replies: 41
Views: 2486

Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

The video was excellent.I forwarded to my adult children who, over the years, I have encouraged to be financially conservative, have a plan and to stay the course. In a slightly different vein, I received a keyboard for Xmas and am practicing piano while at home. I came across this video which has n...
by seychellois_lib
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix on market crashes
Replies: 41
Views: 2486

Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

During the Cuban missile crisis I remember my mother telling me that we were all going to die. Dang! Thanks mom! How old were you at the time? I, for one, was 12 year old and at Military School in LA. We all thought we were going to be drafted. It was pretty intense in the adult world as I recall.
by seychellois_lib
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix on market crashes
Replies: 41
Views: 2486

Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

While I agree it is a good video, I'm not so sure about the research that he talks about. After a large market decline of 50% (!) or more, the data show a large rebound effect. But isn't that obvious? If we define the event as being "over" at the market bottom, it is obvious that the mark...
by seychellois_lib
Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: End of corporate stock buybacks??
Replies: 75
Views: 4654

Re: End of corporate stock buybacks??

Rather than stock buybacks perhaps companies should have saved for a rainy day. Or an emergency fund, just like here on BH. On BH people tend towards having so many months of living expenses held in a way they can use them if needed. It is part of the mantra. I don’t know what the equivalent analog...
by seychellois_lib
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1293
Views: 123780

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

I disagree it's once-in-a-lifetime. I'm still young, so I expect to see a second pandemic in my lifetime if nothing changes to prevent them. :oops: Oh, I can garuntee things will change in an effort to prevent them! And investors should be thinking about the opportunities associated. On this note, ...
by seychellois_lib
Sun Mar 15, 2020 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1293
Views: 123780

Re: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.

Most of us are staring in horror at the chart and slope of USA infection as of today. Essentially identical to Italy's The numbers will go up very substantially over the next several weeks at least. We won't have a crack at reducing the slope until we get serious about a shut down IMO. Regardless, s...
by seychellois_lib
Sun Mar 15, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?
Replies: 200
Views: 15437

Re: So what does shutting down the US economy for a few months look like?

Fed cuts rate to 0. Gulp. On a positive note, there will be a massive demand for delivery and logistics personnel. Many of the younger cohort who loose their restaurant (and the like) jobs should be able to find work. Obviously it will be critical to sustain folks who are locked down. Also I can im...
by seychellois_lib
Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "5.5 million hits from 91,000 visitors" !!!
Replies: 25
Views: 2949

Re: "5.5 million hits from 91,000 visitors" !!!

It is nearly impossible to derive any useful information from unmoderated forums. I am not a Facebook or Twitter user but, to some extent , the same criticism applies based upon 2nd hand nonsense I see online.

Many thanks to our moderators!
by seychellois_lib
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 323872

Re: Coronavirus and the market

There has been a lot of negative vibe regarding our car culture and single family suburban homes here in the USA. But there may be a silver lining these days. I imagine it is far easier for suburbanites to self isolate and certainly easier to independently commute to a testing site (once thy are est...
by seychellois_lib
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 323872

Re: What happens if the Fed cuts to zero, but the Coronavirus situation drastically IMPROVES starting next week?

As an experiment I loaded my Amazon cart with food and emergency related items. Have not bought, just looking at what goes out of stock or increases in price. So far I have seen very minor price changes (batteries - up slightly, cookies - down slightly) but most food product in my cart remain in st...
by seychellois_lib
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 323872

Re: What happens if the Fed cuts to zero, but the Coronavirus situation drastically IMPROVES starting next week?

Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, it wasn't possible for the Fed to stimulate the economy "too much". That's why we still see little inflation alongside very low unemployment. I think one thing people may be overlooking is the supply side component - inflation is still a possibility if m...
by seychellois_lib
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 21219
Views: 2879395

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

S&P 500 up over 4%. What gives? Rumors of government stimulus passing soon (which would have both economic and health benefits), rumors of a declaration of nation of national emergency (likely more of those effects), etc. I'm only seeing +3.85% at the moment, but it's rather volatile. but it's ...
by seychellois_lib
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So how much does Charlie worry when Berkshire's common stock declines?
Replies: 7
Views: 637

Re: So how much does Charlie worry when Berkshire's common stock declines?

Almost nobody, starting with the level of assets he has, would worry at all. Especially not at his age. But he can't really say that as a younger person with far fewer assets, he'd feel the same way. Well, I tell my millennial children, look at what Munger and Buffett say and do, look at their age,...
by seychellois_lib
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 323872

Re: Coronavirus and the market

BTW, if the online brokerage houses charged customers a $quarter for every log in and escalated this during the day, a. they could make a fortune and b. they would give me an incentive to stop obsessively looking at my portfolio.
by seychellois_lib
Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 323872

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I am staying the course but have zero confidence at any sustained market recovery at this point. We are at the beginning of the outbreak, testing remains in a shambolic state and general uncertainty is off the charts. I suspect we have a ways to go yet, just buckle up. Testing, in particular is a ma...