Search found 315 matches

by carofe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Arizona Chapter
Replies: 19
Views: 1132

Re: Arizona Chapter

I live in Tucson, I can meet in Phoenix
by carofe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Too much Bogleheads.org?
Replies: 66
Views: 8022

Re: Too much Bogleheads.org?

A successful index fund investor goes through four phases: 1) Darkness - takes advice from everyone; 2) Enlightenment - realizes a market return is superior to their return; 3) Complexity - overdoing everything to find optimal; 4) Simplicity - invests in a few total market funds Dear OP, You’re in ...
by carofe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Arizona Chapter
Replies: 19
Views: 1132

Re: Arizona Chapter

Me too.
by carofe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?
Replies: 153
Views: 8278

Re: Why are expected returns so much lower than historical returns?

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Historical_and_expected_returns Beginner here trying to figure out how much I need for retirement and I'm confused. Historical real returns are something like 7% on equities and 2.5% on bonds and yet everybody seems to expect closer to 2-4% real on equities and 0-2% ...
by carofe
Wed Apr 11, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1370973

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I read recently in the WSJ that people were overdoing it when purchasing houses with at least 10% of them going over 45% debt-to-income ratio. Living on the edge with the mortgage. Now I got today in the Moneybeat magazine that the oil price is going up, expecting a $80 a barrel by the end of the ye...
by carofe
Tue Apr 10, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio
Replies: 237
Views: 14776

Re: Larry Swedroe: Look Beyond 60/40 Portfolio

People are taking on more investment risk to compensate for their lack of savings, which is not prudent. The brutal reality is that people need to save and contribute more to their investment portfolios. 60/40 is a reasonable and rational fixed, long term allocation, balancing risk and reward, desp...
by carofe
Fri Mar 30, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard in the WSJ today
Replies: 57
Views: 7605

Re: Vanguard in the WSJ today

After reading this article I decided to put all my accounts at Vanguard on Personal Capital to detect anomalies on this third party tool.
by carofe
Thu Mar 22, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If you knew a recession was coming, what would you do?
Replies: 57
Views: 6514

Re: If you knew a recession was coming, what would you do?

midareff wrote:
Tue Mar 20, 2018 6:39 pm
I'd do a Warren and get ready to get greedy.
^ This :greedy
by carofe
Wed Mar 21, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: We made the right decision to not purchase a home now, right?
Replies: 47
Views: 3969

Re: We made the right decision to not purchase a home now, right?

Some wise man regarding marriage and money usually says that you shouldn’t buy a house until after two years of marriage, at least.
I don’t think you guys are ready to buy a house yet.
by carofe
Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Unobservable Inputs
Replies: 6
Views: 721

Re: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Unobservable Inputs

Hi LTann,
Welcome to the forum. The Index Fund is successfully tracking the underlying index, so there must be an explanation for the Unobservable Inputs. I'm curious what that means too.
by carofe
Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Something weird this day came
Replies: 22
Views: 2706

Re: Something weird this day came

Teague wrote:
Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:41 am
This envelope was sent from the future.

That man who looks vaguely familiar? It's you! :shock:
This answer just made my morning, LOL
by carofe
Wed Feb 28, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Credit Cards?? [Credit card vs. debit card]
Replies: 107
Views: 4753

Re: Thoughts on Credit Cards??

I wonder how much of the studies that suggest people pay more when paying with credit are correlation, not causation. For example, I rarely carry more than $20. If I go to the grocery store and buy 1 simple thing, I pay cash since I have it on me. If I buy a week's worth of food I pay with a credit...
by carofe
Mon Feb 26, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Thoughts on Credit Cards?? [Credit card vs. debit card]
Replies: 107
Views: 4753

Re: Thoughts on Credit Cards??

People would need to be pretty stupid not to figure out the study. My recollection of the study I looked at was it wasn't even natural. It was artifical purchase scenarios. Yeah, I read the study too. It was all artificial purchase scenarios. I also read some studies done in Australia and they didn...
by carofe
Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [US Budget deal Revives Expired Individual Tax Breaks for 2017]
Replies: 25
Views: 3270

Re: In a hurry to file, Senate drops stink bomb

... and then you have the security experts telling you that the best way to avoid Identity Theft on tax filing is by filing as early as you can.
by carofe
Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1370973

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

...Whether this is "just a correction" or whatever it is, a level of comfort has returned finally seeing some volatility... Granted we have seen an actual fall of 10% off the highs, but this volatility, especially in the intra-day and overnight makes me wonder how much of it might be explained by f...
by carofe
Thu Feb 01, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52
Replies: 52
Views: 6439

Re: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52

I have been watching that website for a while. Too High P/E tells me that it may be good to do small tactical allocation. 4 months ago I increase my bond allocation +10%, and I'm re-balancing every time my stock allocation drift is 2-3%. High Shiller P/E just tells me that the next decade total retu...
by carofe
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Financial Shock" wealth
Replies: 33
Views: 6478

Re: "Financial Shock" wealth

fantasytensai wrote:
Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:47 pm
Thought this article was intriguing until it got political. Immediately lost all appetite for information.
Yup, and I see lots of complicated "smart" sentences and over-simplification of the cause of wealth or shocks.
by carofe
Fri Dec 08, 2017 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Financial Shock" wealth
Replies: 33
Views: 6478

Re: "Financial Shock" wealth

It reminded me something that I heard once: most credit card debts in USA are coming from Car Repairs and Hospital Bills.
by carofe
Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?
Replies: 98
Views: 8851

Re: Morningstar: Cognitive decline in aging. A strong case for portfolio simplification?

Hmm, I'm only 35, and 5 years ago I had like six funds, now I only have two. I have learned to really appreciate and listen to Mr Bogle wisdom and thrive with simplicity. Simplicity helps to keep focus and contributes to the success of your financial plans in all seasons.
by carofe
Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anti virus protection
Replies: 35
Views: 4344

Re: Anti virus protection

Someone mentioned Malwarebytes. Did any of you recently have a problem with it? I liked it and used it for years. But last week it asked me to download an update, and then it erased itself. After it rebooted it tried to do the same thing again, so I looked, and yes, it was gone from my installed pr...
by carofe
Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1370973

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

PFInterest wrote:
Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:39 pm
has anyone read this thread from start to finish?
Lol I hope not
by carofe
Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6392
Views: 1370973

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I wonder if the correction we all have been waiting to happen already happened in 2015 but much more smoother than we expected.
by carofe
Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Converting to Safety Razors
Replies: 116
Views: 12627

Re: Converting to Safety Razors

no need for a shaving brush made from extinct or endangered animals! Pretty much all the badger hair we get in the brushes nowadays is coming from China, where badger are almost in "plague" levels. Farmers are allowed there to hunt them. However, most of the hair production comes from farmed badger...
by carofe
Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Password Protection
Replies: 83
Views: 7090

Re: Password Protection

I have been using Dashlane for a year now. It works great on all devices. It encrypts everything locally, their servers only have the encrypted version of my passwords. I used to use KeePass but I wanted to use a Password Manager with good support, easy to use and intuitive so I could get my wife to...
by carofe
Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Heading to ER, surprise bills [update: home again]
Replies: 44
Views: 6050

Re: Urgent! Heading to ER, surprise bills

Being in the hospital several times for the last two years, my recommendation is that you request to the hospital that you want to be seen by in-network providers only. Sometimes the hospital assign to you an out-of-network provider without your knowledge and you may end up with pretty big bills. Th...
by carofe
Mon Oct 23, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Converting to Safety Razors
Replies: 116
Views: 12627

Re: Converting to Safety Razors

In fact, in the business world they call it the "Gillette razor and blades model", "Give 'em the razor; sell 'em the blades". Actually, the safety razor and blade business was the source of this aphorism. Gillette sold the razors at a loss to get people started with his at the time new fangled blad...
by carofe
Mon Oct 23, 2017 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Converting to Safety Razors
Replies: 116
Views: 12627

Re: Converting to Safety Razors

It also depends a lot on how frequently you shave and the kind of beard you have. So really when you see that a blade lasts somebody that long you can’t really compare to yourself and think you will be able to get the same result. I have a Southern European beard, very thick. The blades won’t last a...
by carofe
Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)
Replies: 70
Views: 7677

Re: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)

I wouldn't definitely tell my kids to go 100% stocks, ever. I would tell them to go 70/30 or even 60/40 until they are more knowledgable and they experience their first drop in the market. Then, and after then, I would recommend them to adjust to their needs. I can't count how many people around me ...
by carofe
Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Converting to Safety Razors
Replies: 116
Views: 12627

Re: Converting to Safety Razors

Just read an article over at Art of Manliness http://www.artofmanliness.com/2008/01/04/how-to-shave-like-your-grandpa/ and decided to take the plunge. I was mostly moved by the cost effectiveness of spending pennies per blade. The mach 3 and replacement cartriges were too much of a luxury. I used t...
by carofe
Sat Oct 21, 2017 8:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Link to Peter Bernstein the 60/40 solution full article
Replies: 8
Views: 1058

Re: Link to Peter Bernstein the 60/40 solution full article

Silk McCue wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:54 pm
The link only displays the first page on my iPad. On my windows PC it actually downloads the document and I can then open it and find all the pages.
Yup, that was what happened. My iPad only displayed the first page. On my Mac laptop I can download the whole article.

Thank you all.
by carofe
Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Link to Peter Bernstein the 60/40 solution full article
Replies: 8
Views: 1058

Re: Link to Peter Bernstein the 60/40 solution full article

Taylor Larimore wrote:
Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:25 pm
carofe:

Here is the link. It is a wonderful article!

http://web.archive.org/web/200612140619 ... in6040.pdf

Best wishes.
Taylor
Taylor thank you for the link. Unfortunately, that link only has the first page of the article.
by carofe
Sat Oct 21, 2017 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Link to Peter Bernstein the 60/40 solution full article
Replies: 8
Views: 1058

Link to Peter Bernstein the 60/40 solution full article

Hi,
All links I find in this forum and in google to the web archive version of the article has only the first page of the pdf. I wonder if somebody has a full copy of the article in their computer and wouldn’t mind sharing it :). I would love to read it. Thank you.
by carofe
Sat Oct 21, 2017 5:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)
Replies: 70
Views: 7677

Re: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)

You may not need bonds, but wouldn't you want them after reviewing ##3 and 5 here: http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/investing/why_choose_schwab/investing_principles ? That’s another excellent point. A balanced portfolio can perform better overall than all stock portfolio in a given period that w...
by carofe
Sat Oct 21, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again
Replies: 29
Views: 3127

Re: Shiller: the 1987 stock market panic can happen again

Mr. Market, please, please, crash!! We are all being waiting for it, talking about it, anxious about it, gambling about the date, creating thread about it every other day. Crash!!
by carofe
Sat Oct 21, 2017 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)
Replies: 70
Views: 7677

Re: Why do I need bonds? (I'm 30)

Liquidity in the bad times. Having Cash in the bad times has two benefits: it keeps your food on the table, and it gives you the opportunity of your lifetime to buy assets (stock, real estate) at a extremely low price.
by carofe
Thu Oct 19, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 17576

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

I'm very sure that most people here that criticize Bogle for his prediction, or are saying that his prediction can be completely different to what may happen, have never read his book Common Sense Investing where he shows you details about the one decade predictions and how fairly accurate they can...
by carofe
Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 7228

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

Nonsense - when the oil market was tanking about two years ago, oils sold off like they were going out of business +1 Same for emerging markets (ok, these are expected to be more volatile). The catch is that when there's a crash in the making, it's not that the market crashes just because. There's ...
by carofe
Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 7228

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

Thank you for posting. I really enjoyed reading the article. I saved it to my Evernote notebook.
by carofe
Tue Oct 17, 2017 11:14 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Converting to Safety Razors
Replies: 116
Views: 12627

Re: Converting to Safety Razors

You can get 100 double edge blades for your safety razor for less than $20 and you can shave at least three time with one blade. That’s 300 shaves.
by carofe
Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Converting to Safety Razors
Replies: 116
Views: 12627

Re: Converting to Safety Razors

I switched to a safety razor like 10 years ago. Not going back. I get my gears and blades from ebay and from https://www.westcoastshaving.com/. And you can get a lot of good help and recommendation in this community: https://www.badgerandblade.com/ Just a warning: It can be additive ;). Cartridge is...
by carofe
Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 17576

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

I opened today Common Sense on Mutual Funds the Fully Updated 10th Anniversary edition to look for Tactical Allocation and the first page I opened had this title: “Fairly Valued at 100 times earnings? And it goes to explain some interesting articles about people staying back in the 1998 that the soc...
by carofe
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 17576

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

I'm very sure that most people here that criticize Bogle for his prediction, or are saying that his prediction can be completely different to what may happen, have never read his book Common Sense Investing where he shows you details about the one decade predictions and how fairly accurate they can ...
by carofe
Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 17576

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

The same guy we laud for the quote "Nobody knows nothin'". Yet here he is making predictions. What's wrong with this picture? If you read his book you realize that he says that 1 decade predictions for the whole market can be fairly accurate (he shows you numbers in there) and necessary for planing...
by carofe
Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with current market (voo,vti)
Replies: 48
Views: 2671

Re: Need help with current market (voo,vti)

Bond yield are also still at historic lows and when yield increases, bond prices drop. However, people have been saying that for 10 years and those that put everything in cash have missed out. Try putting 50% in stocks and 50% in bonds and then move bonds to stocks over the next year or so. Yes I r...
by carofe
Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Antivirus Software Recommendations
Replies: 47
Views: 4499

Re: Antivirus Software Recommendations

Another vote for Malwarebytes Premium. I recommend you have a backup system setup as well, like https://www.backblaze.com/
by carofe
Fri Oct 06, 2017 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades
Replies: 141
Views: 17576

Re: Bogle himself is saying we will expect like 3% for the next decades

I think Jack Bogle, Wareen Buffet and Vanguard all predict that we will see low return for the next decade.
10 years period return usually end up being very similar to what was predicted.

We will see how it goes after all and if it picks up after 10 years
by carofe
Mon Sep 11, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think
Replies: 49
Views: 6807

Re: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think

The psychological impact on me in 2008-2009 was not "-52%." It was "Countrywide and Northern Rock and Merrill Lynch and Bear Stearns and Indymac and (!!!) Fannie Mae and Freddie Ma and :!: :!: LEHMAN BROTHERS and Washington Mutual and AIG and Citibank and I don't even remember them all. That's a go...
by carofe
Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think
Replies: 49
Views: 6807

[WSJ] Your Tolerance for Investment Risk Is Probably Not What You Think

I found this article today in the WSJ, and I kind of agree with his point of view. I have come to the same conclusions even before I knew about Bogleheads when presented with those questions. https://www.wsj.com/articles/your-tolerance-for-investment-risk-is-probably-not-what-you-think-1505096160 Wh...