Search found 367 matches

by carofe
Mon Mar 18, 2019 6:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Visiting Tucson, AZ for 3 days - what to see?
Replies: 46
Views: 2069

Re: Visiting Tucson, AZ for 3 days - what to see?

I live outside Tucson and concur with many of the recommendations, but not visiting Phoenix or Sedona unless you have a week. I've also never had a cracked windshield due to the lousy streets or seen a dust storm in Tucson like they get up in Phoenix. Suggestions: Arizona-Sonora Desert museum Sabin...
by carofe
Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Yet Another Cash vs Card Thread, Article from 2018
Replies: 4
Views: 677

Yet Another Cash vs Card Thread, Article from 2018

Article from 2018: https://www.valuepenguin.com/credit-cards/credit-card-spending-studies I noticed something interesting that they said about their analysis of that report that says that there was no difference: Of the studies that we surveyed, all but one reported increased spending when credit ca...
by carofe
Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Oppenheimer???? Stay out of this or help???
Replies: 29
Views: 2522

Re: Oppenheimer???? Stay out of this or help???

If I were those elders, I would highly appreciate the advise and guidance that somebody like you is giving me, because I can see that there is no gain for you in you advice and it is cost minded. If I were you I would help them, even to move the money to vanguard and even manage it for them. You are...
by carofe
Sun Mar 03, 2019 9:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wow, my paycheck is now at 2015 levels after the "tax cut"
Replies: 19
Views: 3252

Re: Wow, my paycheck is now at 2015 levels after the "tax cut"

I can’t find a reference right now but I think existing mortgage between 750k and 1million before the tax reform are grandfathered in: you can still deduct the interest.
by carofe
Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [WSJ] Chinese Shares Gain Global Sway Thanks to Index Firm’s Move
Replies: 2
Views: 237

[WSJ] Chinese Shares Gain Global Sway Thanks to Index Firm’s Move

Another interesting article about the effect of Index firms decisions:

MSCI is quadrupling the contribution of stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen in a key index

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-sh ... _lead_pos4
by carofe
Tue Feb 26, 2019 8:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock
Replies: 145
Views: 19648

Re: Theory: NOW is the Best Time for Total World Stock

I would add (in addition to your logic) that the dollar is and has been very strong in relation to most currencies in both Europe and Asia which have depressed international returns for US investors in dollar denominated currency. An example of this (I believe from memory but I can look it up) was ...
by carofe
Tue Feb 26, 2019 12:06 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Mortgages from the bubble-era
Replies: 2
Views: 715

Re: Mortgages from the bubble-era

The analysis in that article is not very good. Subprime securitized loans are only "dangerous," in the words of the article, if they are thought to be worth more than they actually are. When these loans were new, people thought they were worth face value (otherwise they would not have issued them)....
by carofe
Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Question about career change into software development
Replies: 9
Views: 550

Re: Question about career change into software development

I own a small tech business. In my area the conventional wisdom is that code school graduates are flooding the market, and maybe a third of them are really ready to join the industry. I agree with this as well. The boot camps are flooding the market. If he really wants to be marketable and have a d...
by carofe
Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score
Replies: 31
Views: 2002

Re: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score

Yup, my score went from 770 up to 789 after paying off the credit card regularly to keep the balance low.
by carofe
Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score
Replies: 31
Views: 2002

Re: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score

Thank you all. I'll put a reminder to pay the bill before the statement is generated.
by carofe
Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score
Replies: 31
Views: 2002

Re: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score

I have only two credit cards, and both have fairly high balances on them. Still, my credit score that my credit union shows is over 800. Perhaps it's not the balance that's driving your score? Sometimes, just the number of cards you have can influence the score, as well as how many credit inquiries...
by carofe
Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score
Replies: 31
Views: 2002

Re: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score

I'm going to start keeping the balance low by making manual payments, especially when close to the bill cut. I'm planning to apply for a mortgage pre-qual in April to start shopping for a house.
by carofe
Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score
Replies: 31
Views: 2002

Re: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score

Remember that paying your statement balance in full is not going to drive your balance to zero as long as you are using your card continuously. The charges you made after the statement was cut are still part of your balance even if they report your balance on the day your auto-pay goes through. You...
by carofe
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score
Replies: 31
Views: 2002

Re: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score

I currently have my Chase Credit card in auto-pay. It has been like that for a really long time. As result, there is always some "balance" in the card but really the statement balance is payed off completely every month. I have been monitoring my Credit Score on Credit.com and I noticed that during...
by carofe
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score
Replies: 31
Views: 2002

Re: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score

If you really want to increase your credit score and believe that a balance showing is reducing the score, pay it off early, before the due date. You'll want to pay it before it reports to the credit agencies. So if it's due on the 30th, maybe pay it on the 15th and if you make a big purchase, put ...
by carofe
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score
Replies: 31
Views: 2002

Re: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score

According to credit.com, my debt ratio is A-, and the estimate they have is 768. According to Chase.com, the estimate is 770, but when I run the simulator, they say that if I eliminate the balance on my credit card my score remains the same :shock:.
by carofe
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score
Replies: 31
Views: 2002

Credit Card in Auto-pay affecting Credit Score

I currently have my Chase Credit card in auto-pay. It has been like that for a really long time. As result, there is always some "balance" in the card but really the statement balance is payed off completely every month. I have been monitoring my Credit Score on Credit.com and I noticed that during ...
by carofe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 58019

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

Condolences to his family. He was a great man, I'm thankful for all his work and legacy for the individual investor.
by carofe
Wed Oct 24, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12414
Views: 2144405

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I believe that another factor is ruthless cost cutting. Also profit margins are at or near all-time highs. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. The easiest way to grow earnings is to merge with another company and fire redundant employees. As the pointy haired boss in the Dilbert cartoon famousl...
by carofe
Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12414
Views: 2144405

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I believe that another factor is ruthless cost cutting. Also profit margins are at or near all-time highs. The low hanging fruit has been plucked. The easiest way to grow earnings is to merge with another company and fire redundant employees. As the pointy haired boss in the Dilbert cartoon famousl...
by carofe
Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12414
Views: 2144405

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I think the real "bad news" is that China is having the perfect storm, slowing down economy with trade tension from US. The trade war are not causing the slowdown but a combination of factors including the trade war. There is nothing Trump can do to stop it. If China gets into a recession period, th...
by carofe
Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12414
Views: 2144405

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Some light reading on Tactical Asset Allocation by our friends @ Vanguard https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/flgtaa.pdf "Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio’s strategic asset allocation (SAA) based on short-term market forecasts.Its objective is to...
by carofe
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 12652

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

Perhaps someone will clarify: I seem to be in a minority around here in that I do hold international stocks but I am also skeptical/unconvinced that it is going to better help me achieve my goals. I do not see myself removing this allocation but I also am not overly enthusiastic about having it, ei...
by carofe
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"
Replies: 203
Views: 12652

Re: "Why Jack Bogle Doesn't Own Non-U.S. Stocks"

All I can say about this argument is the majority of folks who support U.S. centric only investments are: 1. U.S. raised and 2. Old (80+). Sorry but this thought process is nearly (if ever) recommended by anyone outside of those 2 characteristics. It just proves that no matter how intelligent and i...
by carofe
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12414
Views: 2144405

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Anyone have a hypothesis as to what in the world is causing the drop this week? One word answer: "fear" I'm hoping for continued "fear" through December so that my Roth conversions on Jan 2 will be at discount rates. I wouldn't necessarily call this a drop. "Heavy noise" would be more like it.... 8...
by carofe
Thu Oct 11, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Very Basic Asset Allocation Help Needed
Replies: 8
Views: 593

Re: Very Basic Asset Allocation Help Needed

You should probably replace the stable fund with the bond index fund to get better return and still low volatility.
by carofe
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Very Basic Asset Allocation Help Needed
Replies: 8
Views: 593

Re: Very Basic Asset Allocation Help Needed

You have 52% Bonds (assuming the Stable Fund is a Bond Fund) and 48% in Stocks. I think it doesn't look bad at all. If I were you I would probably go 55% Stock/ 45% Bonds and put all my stocks in SP500 to make it even simpler, but it won't make much difference. You are retiring in 5years. There are ...
by carofe
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12414
Views: 2144405

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I can't believe the PE10 is going any higher. The Earnings will need to grow like weed, or the Price will go down. Speculation can't hold forever. Maybe all those predictions that the coming decade was going to be bumpy with low Net Return are starting to look more real. Anyways, for the first time ...
by carofe
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12414
Views: 2144405

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

The Vanguard Value Index weighted average P/E is 16, and the Vanguard Growth Index weighted average P/E is 26.

That's a pretty descent difference, time to buy value?
by carofe
Fri Oct 05, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Jack Bogle’s Bogleheads Keep Investing Simple. You Should Too.
Replies: 12
Views: 1975

Re: WSJ: Jack Bogle’s Bogleheads Keep Investing Simple. You Should Too.

Nice article. I read it and came here to see if somebody posted it.
by carofe
Tue Sep 25, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DIYers Taking a Toll
Replies: 50
Views: 6775

Re: DIYers Taking a Toll

You said your son is a wealth manager, not a active mutual fund manager. So he is advising his clients holistically, maybe even guiding them to index funds. So the comparison here is not active vs passive funds, it’s having an advisor vs DIY. Let’s try to be charitable in interpreting what he said....
by carofe
Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 2119
Views: 222898

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

I seem to be missing whatever gene causes people to enjoy seeing their international equity holdings performing poorly. LOL. Quoting WSJ newsletter: What’s problematic, however, is that companies in the Russell 1000 Growth index without steady profits have returned 18% in 2018 through August, compa...
by carofe
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 117719

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Mr. Bogle didn’t invest in International his entire life even when it was popular a while ago. And he didn’t miss much, and still maintains his position after 1970ish, 2000 and 2008. But this time is different,... oh wait. USA had had the policy of strong dollar for years. That artificial policy pus...
by carofe
Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds versus Vanguard S and P 500
Replies: 37
Views: 7178

Re: American Funds versus Vanguard S and P 500

I have to say that much of its outperformance is due to avoiding the big crash of the 2000. In fact, in an interview, one of their managers said that most of the outperform they got can be attributed to the ability of avoiding stock market madness as they did in 2000. On the side note, they not onl...
by carofe
Thu Aug 30, 2018 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: American Funds versus Vanguard S and P 500
Replies: 37
Views: 7178

Re: American Funds versus Vanguard S and P 500

I have to say that much of its outperformance is due to avoiding the big crash of the 2000. In fact, in an interview, one of their managers said that most of the outperform they got can be attributed to the ability of avoiding stock market madness as they did in 2000. On the side note, they not only...
by carofe
Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1247
Views: 117719

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

International hasn’t done that badly if measured with their own currencies You don’t have currency hedge mechanism with funds as companies do, so you are stuck with the fluctuations. Welcome to the currency risk : long periods of underperforming and over performing to US market just because of curre...
by carofe
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)
Replies: 220
Views: 13058

Re: Most commonly misused/misunderstood investing terms and concepts (on BH forum)

Speculation . "When you buy individual stock you are speculating/gambling". That's usually a very dogmatic view of investing. Anyways, if we follow Mr. Graham definition (which I personally find convincing), if you buy a stock for the long-term because after careful analysis you see the company has...
by carofe
Wed Aug 29, 2018 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 2119
Views: 222898

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

The GDP grew 4.2% year-on-year. That's excellent news :moneybag
by carofe
Thu May 24, 2018 8:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I've never budgeted sucessfully
Replies: 59
Views: 6202

Re: I've never budgeted sucessfully

Literal cash in envelopes seems old fashioned and low tech but it is easy and it does tell you when you are out of money and after moving money between envelopes for a few months you know where it is going. This. If tracking is a problem, nothing like the envelope system for budgeting, no tracking ...
by carofe
Wed May 16, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 61
Views: 6491

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

I'm most likely to stick to the plan with SP500 or Total Stock Market than with slice and dice to tilt to small value and see it underperform for long periods of time. I already tried it and I found it too complex to put my trust in it. I think being able to stick to the plan and low cost, low fund ...
by carofe
Mon May 14, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Arizona Chapter
Replies: 116
Views: 17946

Re: Arizona Chapter

I won't be able to make it after all this Thrusday. I have a family event going on. But please keep me in the loop. I would like to attend future events. Thanks.
by carofe
Mon May 14, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: The front page is ugly
Replies: 140
Views: 17987

Re: The front page is ugly

I see that the front page is pretty much a copy of the craigslist design. I suggest some modification: * Something to visually aid the user in distinguishing better between posts items, e.g. a fine gray line between posts items + more spacing between them. * Tiny bit larger font size to fill out mor...
by carofe
Tue May 08, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 36962

Re: Why International again?

Also, take into account that the Efficient Frontier is "over this period". The EF graph can change depending on the period. In fact, there have been cases where the "recommended" allocation according to EF didn't go that well in the following period. Jack Bogle has a good analysis about EF in his Co...
by carofe
Thu May 03, 2018 10:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 36962

Re: Why International again?

Over the long term, the return of the US and International has been sort of the same but international has more volatility because of currency. It means long periods of underperformance and long periods of outperformance. If the return is similar, why adding the currency risk? The analogy with the M...
by carofe
Thu May 03, 2018 9:52 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Arizona Chapter
Replies: 116
Views: 17946

Re: Arizona Chapter

Thursday it is a little bit harder for me because of work and coming from Tucson, but I’ll definitely try to go.
by carofe
Thu May 03, 2018 6:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation to combine Dave Ramsey and Vanguard?
Replies: 79
Views: 10562

Re: Allocation to combine Dave Ramsey and Vanguard?

Hi guys! Looking for thoughts on the following asset allocation? Dave Ramsey recommends staying aggressive not just when young but even through retirement. His split is an even 25% for Growth and Income, Growth, Aggressive Growth, and International. I've heard this described as Large, Mid, Small, I...
by carofe
Thu May 03, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Allocation to combine Dave Ramsey and Vanguard?
Replies: 79
Views: 10562

Re: Allocation to combine Dave Ramsey and Vanguard?

Hi guys! Looking for thoughts on the following asset allocation? Dave Ramsey recommends staying aggressive not just when young but even through retirement. His split is an even 25% for Growth and Income, Growth, Aggressive Growth, and International. I've heard this described as Large, Mid, Small, I...
by carofe
Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dilbert Creator: If everyone indexed...
Replies: 39
Views: 7766

Re: Dilbert Creator: If everyone indexed...

Interesting article, however, there is always going to be people wanting "more", or afraid of "extremely simple" ideas. There is always going to be people wanting to risk it with active management or at least mix index funds with active funds because they think all index is too radical. The "if ever...
by carofe
Thu Apr 26, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 67
Views: 11823

Re: Unprecedented Event

In worst case scenario, of economic disasters, or totalitarian/authoritarian gov't taking over, or war; if you are lucky enough to not being killed in the process, what you usually get to keep is the house you live in. Even, in communist regimes, they take away all your investments, businesses, and...