Search found 244 matches

by Crushtheturtle
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4217
Views: 349994

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

What is everyone's de-risking plan when you've reached the goals with your own personal adventure? If you haven't seen it already, Vineviz's recommendation from Page 1 of the original thread seems like a solid bet. Personally, I might target $120,000,000 in equity exposure by age 60 and add 55/45 V...
by Crushtheturtle
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4217
Views: 349994

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Any guesses to how many out there are partaking on the excellent adventure? In some form or another. Strict 55/45% rebalance quarterly Old school 40/60% Percentages of UPRO/TMF based on some form of timing Slightly different ETFs but similar idea Other variations I might be missing? Another variati...
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4217
Views: 349994

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Lordosis wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:02 pm
I have been following this threat since I discovered it last summer.
I sometimes think this might be the case...
8-)
by Crushtheturtle
Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It's down another 33% from here - about 1650 for the SnP. That would be 50% off the peak on 2/19. It could go even lower, but that would be a good point to start easing back in. Until then ZZZZZZZZZZZZ. What are you doing to take advantage of this guaranteed dramatic fall? Buying Puts? Shorting sto...
by Crushtheturtle
Wed Apr 01, 2020 10:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Bogleheads suffering a derivatives epidemic?
Replies: 41
Views: 3122

Re: Is Bogleheads suffering a derivatives epidemic?

To track its target index as closely as possible, the fund attempts to remain fully invested in stocks. To help stay fully invested and to reduce transaction costs, the fund may invest, to a limited extent, in derivatives. Generally speaking, a derivative is a financial contract whose value is base...
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 29, 2020 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4217
Views: 349994

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Again, I think we're heading towards inflation: https://www.barrons.com/articles/expect-the-unexpected-after-the-crisis-inflation-51585323090?mod=past_editions More like stagflation. It's coming. Even Alan Greenspan, who actually thinks we're overcapturing inflationary metrics thinks it is coming. ...
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 29, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4217
Views: 349994

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Treasuries are by far the best hedge against equities. It makes no difference what they yield or if we are in raising rate environment. Investors and traders use it as a defensive hedge. Always have, and always will. Equities fall, traders flood Treasuries with Billions and visa versa. 2 weeks ago ...
by Crushtheturtle
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)
Replies: 482
Views: 45791

Re: Who's buying today? where's all the "dry powder" folks at? :)

ultraviolet wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:05 pm
watchnerd wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 6:01 pm
Skeeter1 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 5:21 pm
I bought today for my granddaughters account. She is 10 months old and I invested for her into an S&P 500 ETF . I think that will work out just fine.
What's the Age in Bonds for a 10 month old?
0.83%
You hate to see a 10 month old bear so much equity risk.
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?
Replies: 86
Views: 8610

Re: Will the Dow ever see 29500 again?

Can you imagine a world in which we can't cure the cold virus?

Utter chaos. Permanently low stock market.

Cats and dogs, living together.
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Use this opportunity
Replies: 2
Views: 417

Re: Use this opportunity

Good post, thank you.

It certainly seems to be true that these events cause one to reflect on their investing strategy in a way that isn't possible in calmer times.
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 335
Views: 28982

Re: It's Not Different This Time

The narrative is always different.

The outcome is always the same.

Long term, stocks go up.
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix on market crashes
Replies: 41
Views: 2233

Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

whodidntante wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 11:58 am
Ben Felix also recorded a podcast where he gave more details and specific examples. It's called the Rational Reminder podcast and it's available in whatever podcast app you currently use. If you use Android, I recommend the Google Podcasts app.
Gracias
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 22, 2020 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Felix on market crashes
Replies: 41
Views: 2233

Re: Ben Felix on market crashes

Great video, thanks.
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Senator Insider Trading before Crash
Replies: 13
Views: 1630

Re: Senator Insider Trading before Crash

Those politicians sure are corrupt.

Therefore, I'm going to place my trust and fortune into... Bitcoin
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looming Crash
Replies: 13
Views: 1175

Re: Looming Crash

Where was this fascinating visual deduction last month?
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Looming Crash
Replies: 13
Views: 1175

Re: Looming Crash

Oh no, a crash is coming!
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4217
Views: 349994

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

For today, 3/19/20:

S&P 500 close: + 0.47%
UPRO close: - 0.63%

What gives?
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4217
Views: 349994

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Makes sense.

But I just want it to go up so badly.

:happy
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Mar 19, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4217
Views: 349994

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Maybe it's just because I'm paying close attention, but I'm noticing that UPRO is doing a miserable job today delivering 3x the price movement of SPY.

Hasn't come close at all.
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

dukeblue219 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:36 am
Jobless claims are out: just 281k? I'm surprised.
CNBC talking heads said yesterday that the number only includes data to 2 weeks ago.
by Crushtheturtle
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Corsair wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 1:26 pm
Thank goodness I sold out in Feb :shock:

Market timing or not it worked (might not work again)
Market Timing absolutely does work. Many here have apparently avoided big losses.

Maybe another example of advice from Bogle that is so simplistic, it's wrong.
by Crushtheturtle
Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I'd keep playing.

I don't think the heavy stuff is gonna come down for quite awhile.
by Crushtheturtle
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4217
Views: 349994

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Forester wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:10 pm
TLT worst one-day loss ever -6.6%.
People with large UPRO holdings:

"Welcome to the party pal!"
by Crushtheturtle
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3853
Views: 277467

Re: Coronavirus and the market

quantAndHold wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:25 am
I’m just the reporter here, not making judgements about what was said, but this is notes a family member took from a Goldman Sachs conf call yesterday. This is probably a good proxy for what the market is “thinking”.
Conclusions of Goldman Sachs ...
Thank you, very informative
by Crushtheturtle
Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I bought more UPRO today. Hold me Mind if I ask what the game plan is? Are you planning to hold these long-term? I'm not opposed to leveraged ETFs myself but stick with options (which are now expensive). Why not SPXL? No worries. Hedgefundie's excellent adventure. UPRO held with TMF for the long te...
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I bought more UPRO today.

Hold me
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?
Replies: 199
Views: 18705

Re: Where My 100% Equities Peeps At?!?

expat wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:41 pm
if you're 100% equities and you're still buying, where's the money coming from?
Income?
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

squirm wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:10 am
Scott Wapner of CNBC folds.
Handkerchiefs? Doilies? Silk shirts?
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4217
Views: 349994

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

elderwise wrote:
Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:07 am
I am wondering is the TMF % up sort of making up for the drop in UPRO?
Depending on your asset allocation between the two... sort of.
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street Journal article: blood in the streets
Replies: 10
Views: 1559

Re: Wall Street Journal article: blood in the streets

ThereAreNoGurus wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 7:12 pm
theorist wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 1:16 pm
WSJ: investors pulling funds out of the market at near record rates...
If "Investors are bailing on stock funds" are who's on the other side of the trade? (Hegefunds, large investors?)
Smart investors
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not shut down the stock market temporariliy?
Replies: 28
Views: 1562

Re: Why not shut down the stock market temporariliy?

rasta wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:20 am
circuit breakers should be eliminated.

we don't have them on the way up, we shouldn't have them on the way down.
1987 showed that computers do whacky things.

I think that is why they are there.
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not shut down the stock market temporariliy?
Replies: 28
Views: 1562

Re: Why not shut down the stock market temporariliy?

The head of the NYSE was asked that question recently.

She replied that closing would send the wrong message.
by Crushtheturtle
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have any of you ever bought VIX calls/puts?
Replies: 20
Views: 1022

Re: Have any of you ever bought VIX calls/puts?

Playing with Options is playing with fire.
VIX options is juggling the fire. Different rules than other underlyings.

Understand what you are doing.
by Crushtheturtle
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much could we theoretically lose?
Replies: 110
Views: 8421

Re: How much could we theoretically lose?

Plenty of other experts saying this will be contained. Let’s keep our fingers crossed. SARS was more potent and we never saw a panic to this degree. Or bird flu! Don't forget about AIDS and both swine flues. It happens every few years, but I've never seen the hype that we're seeing now. Technologic...
by Crushtheturtle
Sat Mar 14, 2020 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3853
Views: 277467

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Despite the fear, the drawdown ends when we run out of Sellers.

Same as it ever was.
by Crushtheturtle
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3853
Views: 277467

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I removed an off-topic post criticizing the news media. Please stay on-topic, which is about the market. Emotions are running high. In order to keep this forum focused on investing, please only post about the coronavirus in these threads: - Market impacts: Coronavirus and the market (this one) - Pr...
by Crushtheturtle
Sat Mar 14, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some good news
Replies: 15
Views: 1967

Re: Some good news

centennialstate wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 10:59 pm
Mr. Market is incapacitated and sipping a hot toddy while shivering. Doesn't even realize he hasn't caught the Corona Virus. Perfect time to go through his drawers and personal belongings, taking all he'll easily give up.
Well said.
by Crushtheturtle
Sat Mar 14, 2020 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US vs International asset allocation logic
Replies: 4
Views: 279

Re: US vs International asset allocation logic

4. Will Currency risk, Country risk, Liquidity risk invalidate any of the above assumptions? To the extent one believes in Market efficiency, those risks have already been priced in, producing the Global ratio depicted in the chart. 5. Will VTIAX eventually become 0% and VTSAX become 100%? So all o...
by Crushtheturtle
Sat Mar 14, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Forgetting the exaggeration (which is likely around the timeline for availability nationally), everyone calls Alphabet by the name Google on occasion including the talking heads on TV on a regular basis otherwise FANG and FAANG don't work. My guess is the company's statement is mostly about interna...
by Crushtheturtle
Sat Mar 14, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International is in meltdown
Replies: 308
Views: 21798

Re: International is in meltdown

My takeaway from the chart in question is that outperformance is a coin flip. Anything I might speculate about the relative future performance between the two asset classes would be based on information that should already be incorporated into the price, for the most part. Therefore, to the extent I...
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I bought more UPRO. It's really cheap for some reason.
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

I wish I had more cash to buy.

When this irrational fear subsides, the market is going to become a rocket ship to glory.
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

willthrill81 wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 11:05 pm
Crushtheturtle wrote:
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:46 pm
Logical that the peaks and troughs of the Great Depression should define average?
Maybe not, but that chart of JoMoney's sure looks interesting if nothing else. Many would say that it graphically illustrates 'Siegel's constant'.
Indeed. Stocks have gone up, in a Logarithmic fashion.
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Logical that the peaks and troughs of the Great Depression should define average?
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4217
Views: 349994

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Per the Efficient Market Hypothesis, TMF shouldn't go down simply because rates rise, but only if they rise faster than the Market expects.
Change my mind.
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

canadianbacon wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:20 pm
Great time to buy on the dip... if only I could free up some cash. I know, I'll sell some of these equities...
I recommend selling bonds instead
:wink:
by Crushtheturtle
Tue Mar 03, 2020 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Here We Go Again!"
Replies: 32
Views: 6952

Re: "Here We Go Again!"

Closed Disneyland =/ Bubonic Plague.

200+ years of equities moving up and to the right isn't Confirmation Bias- it's the only rational planning assumption we have.
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18181
Views: 2564346

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

"In Bear Markets, stocks return to their rightful owners."
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 01, 2020 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 37008

Re: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?

31.4159265359 +/- 50% On a more serious note it will be interesting to see how folks who started investing after the financial crisis weather this. We've had plenty of 10 or 20% pullbacks since then. I suppose it matters how much the investor was paying attention to any of them- this one is certain...