Search found 290 matches

by Crushtheturtle
Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15232
Views: 1177565

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Well, it was a good day.

Thanks politicians.
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15232
Views: 1177565

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

abuss368 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:39 am
Keenobserver wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:11 am
anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 am overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
Time to sell my Tesla stock
What if it goes higher?

Tony
If it goes higher, we back up the truck. That's how it works, right?
:wink:
by Crushtheturtle
Wed Apr 07, 2021 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your contrarian/alternative play?
Replies: 101
Views: 8720

Re: What is your contrarian/alternative play?

Swing trading

Blue chip stocks, indicating oversold by bouncing off support on a daily chart.

Support could be a certain price level, whole/half number, or Simple Moving Average (20,50,100,200 day)
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15232
Views: 1177565

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

OohLaLa wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:46 pm
Stef wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 12:39 pm There is no limit. Will we see 5000 by end of this year? Should we buy leveraged ETFs? :mrgreen:
Come on, jump in! The water is warm... very warm! :twisted:
...wait a minute... this isn't water...
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 v Total Stock - What is your favorite and why?
Replies: 104
Views: 9037

Re: S&P 500 v Total Stock - What is your favorite and why?

:sharebeer As an aside, does anyone have an updated source to monitor the % of SP500 in the Total US Market? I would like to mix TSP S fund in with TSP C fund to approximate the Total Market. And no, the Bogle Wiki on the subject is not updated often enough. 1. Do 3 google searches in separate brows...
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 Years and 100% VTI
Replies: 111
Views: 12842

Re: 30 Years and 100% VTI

jason2459 wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:16 pm
abuss368 wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:46 pm
jason2459 wrote: Fri Apr 02, 2021 2:17 pm Most likely if you add money to VTI or any fund and never look at it again at all for 30 years you will have very little gains. Escheat.
Why?
Escheat
Escheat?
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 28, 2021 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23285
Views: 3044407

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Apparently the hedge fund that blew up last week still has more blowing up to do. :twisted: I saw a tweet saying Bill Hwang book still $22B to $30B left to liquidate. Jerome Powell better get the Fed’s checkbook ready. Apparently the fund was using swap lines so never had to file 13F reports even w...
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Mar 28, 2021 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 v Total Stock - What is your favorite and why?
Replies: 104
Views: 9037

Re: S&P 500 v Total Stock - What is your favorite and why?

As always, we owe a debt of gratitude to the intelligent contributors to this forum. Nisiprius' input resonates especially, reminding us that it's the S&P 500 (and not the S&P 3000) because that's about all the computers of the time could handle when the good idea fairies bestowed their gift...
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Feb 25, 2021 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8957
Views: 881728

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:32 pm
Crushtheturtle wrote: Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:28 pm What an exciting rebalancing opportunity. Just sell what is doing well and buy what is going down.
Is there anything to rebalance when UPRO down 5% TMF down 5%...?
That's the joke
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Feb 25, 2021 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8957
Views: 881728

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

What an exciting rebalancing opportunity. Just sell what is doing well and buy what is going down.
by Crushtheturtle
Sat Feb 13, 2021 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total World Index is tracking lower than Total US and Total International
Replies: 13
Views: 1976

Re: Total World Index is tracking lower than Total US and Total International

MrJedi wrote: Sat Feb 13, 2021 7:51 am If you take the starting date as January 4 instead of December 31, you get a different answer. I don't know the reason though.
Jan 4 is the first trading day of the year.
YTD lookbacks can't start any earlier
by Crushtheturtle
Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: How typical am I?
Replies: 82
Views: 7380

Re: Retirees: How typical am I?

Thanks for responding to my post. To clarify, I guess I'm asking it is unusual for a BH not to be aware of their withdrawal rate given they are not exceedingly wealthy and has a very enjoyable lifestyle. It doesn't take much effort to multiply your monthly expenditures by 12, then divide by the val...
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Jan 31, 2021 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Physical Silver Short Squeeze may be on
Replies: 231
Views: 15414

Re: Physical Silver Short Squeeze maybe on

KlangFool wrote: Sun Jan 31, 2021 11:40 am Folks,


FYI. Silver coins are almost all sold out on all on-line sellers.


https://www.jmbullion.com/silver/silver ... lated-ase/

KlangFool
Maybe just major online retailers waiting to see what the price does before releasing inventory.
by Crushtheturtle
Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23285
Views: 3044407

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

power hour? US Stocks are soaring!
by Crushtheturtle
Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23285
Views: 3044407

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

csh wrote: Fri Jan 29, 2021 1:31 pm I might be to blame for the recent drops. Earlier in the week I moved a chunk of money from bonds to equities. Should have waited till today :oops:
That's just how my luck runs :(
Yup, that's how I operate as well...

<sobs gently>
by Crushtheturtle
Fri Jan 29, 2021 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 50/50?
Replies: 175
Views: 17229

Re: Why not 50/50?

GaryA505 wrote: Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:01 pm In retirement, some say 30/70 for safety, but some say 70/30 due to longevity risk. So why try to figure out who's right? Why not just split the difference?
As at least one of the women before him would declare, King Solomon's simple proposal isn't always the wisest.
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has Bogleheads lost its direction?
Replies: 331
Views: 29869

Re: Has Bogleheads lost its direction?

I also insist on philosophical purity on these forums. To often, I find myself reading things that I don't agree with or expect to read. This angers me. I want my views confirmed, not challenged. Hopefully, the moderating staff can correct the ship before things get too far out of hand. Edit: I spel...
by Crushtheturtle
Wed Jan 20, 2021 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8957
Views: 881728

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I see that this thread remains popular, attracting curious newcomers. I will gently restate my own experience for their consideration, as I also found the strategy compelling. Around December 2019, I committed a significant % of my portfolio to this strategy. Approximately 70/30 UPRO/TMF if memory s...
by Crushtheturtle
Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why QQQ instead of Tobacco stocks?
Replies: 29
Views: 3226

Re: Why QQQ instead of Tobacco stocks?

I'm only interested in leveraged Phillip Morris.
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buy I bonds (and/or EE bonds) if I have access to the TSP G fund?
Replies: 7
Views: 903

Re: Buy I bonds (and/or EE bonds) if I have access to the TSP G fund?

oncorhynchus wrote: Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:58 am You may want to consider the current return from the G Fund vs. the current rate of inflation.

o
Indeed. Quick search:
TSP G fund .875%
Inflation 1.2%

I've always had access to the G fund, but never trusted that it had superpowers. No free lunch and all that.
by Crushtheturtle
Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Don't sell stocks when they're down..." What is "down"?
Replies: 44
Views: 3227

Re: "Don't sell stocks when they're down..." What is "down"?

The average intrayear drawdown is 14%, therefore one might use that to define the "down," using the 52-wk high as the baseline. Or, as you imply, that "mantra" is simplified nonsense, only meant to justify unnecessary fear-based bond holding. Edit w/ another alternative: As you m...
by Crushtheturtle
Fri Dec 11, 2020 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23285
Views: 3044407

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Disney didn't get the memo.
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Dec 07, 2020 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8957
Views: 881728

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

^^ In addition: Regulatory risk- these ETFs don't seem overly popular with policy-makers trying to protect us from ourselves. Manager risk- the investor is concentrating capital with one or two relatively small fund managers. At the nadir of the Covid sell-off, UPRO was trading in the teens. I found...
by Crushtheturtle
Tue Oct 20, 2020 7:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8957
Views: 881728

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Does it strike anyone else as odd that the longest post in BH history concerns financial actions that Bogle probably wouldn't approve of? I'm paraphrasing, but Mr. Bogle is on record as stating that holding leveraged equity is the best strategy, as long as you have someone "to bail you out at ...
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Sep 03, 2020 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23285
Views: 3044407

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

So, it turns out, not the best day to buy TQQQ, a leveraged NASDAQ ETF.

:oops:
by Crushtheturtle
Thu Aug 06, 2020 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8957
Views: 881728

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I'm using a target volatility approach with UPRO and TMF. The target volatility is 25%, and the look back period is 1 month. Very simple. Portfolio Visualizer will calculate it, but you have to subscribe to get the current month's allocation. If I understand the implementation correctly, one might ...
by Crushtheturtle
Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concentration in Outperforming Sectors?
Replies: 10
Views: 653

Re: Concentration in Outperforming Sectors?

jason2459 wrote: Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:29 pm Sounds like the easiest way to do this would be to use MTUM. Using the index it uses to backtest it's done very well. The ETF only goes back to 2013 and has done well but so has QQQ which has a lot of overlapping holdings.
Interesting, thank you.
by Crushtheturtle
Wed Jun 24, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concentration in Outperforming Sectors?
Replies: 10
Views: 653

Re: Concentration in Outperforming Sectors?

Seems weird to invest in IT sector and not Communication Services, mostly because you're missing out on Google, Facebook, and Netflix unless you do. If course you could just buy those as individual stocks. Deferring to the wisdom of the market, as well as to those who have organized the Sectors, I ...
by Crushtheturtle
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concentration in Outperforming Sectors?
Replies: 10
Views: 653

Re: Concentration in Outperforming Sectors?

Thank you all for your replies. I am allocating a small portion to this strategy, a momentum play of sorts. Therefore, I'm currently long in Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology and Healthcare. We'll see how the rate of return compares to the Market as a whole. or until my overactive tinke...
by Crushtheturtle
Wed Jun 24, 2020 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is Vanguard REIT (VNQ) crashing?
Replies: 17
Views: 2423

Re: Why is Vanguard REIT (VNQ) crashing?

Perhaps the market feels the stay-at-home movement has real staying power, in light of continuing contagion fears.

This might cause investors to take a dim view of the future prospects for commercial real estate.


Just a guess, I'm as clueless as anyone..
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23285
Views: 3044407

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Back to green.

That recession was scary, let's never do that again.
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Jun 22, 2020 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concentration in Outperforming Sectors?
Replies: 10
Views: 653

Concentration in Outperforming Sectors?

Referencing the below list of Vanguard Sector ETFs: https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/list?assetclass=sec#/etf/asset-class/month-end-returns My friend noticed that it's possible to organize them (or their equivalents from any brokerage) on a spreadsheet, in order of their proximities to their respec...
by Crushtheturtle
Fri Jun 05, 2020 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15232
Views: 1177565

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Bears in shambles
by Crushtheturtle
Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Equity Investors: What are you holding?
Replies: 30
Views: 2980

Re: 100% Equity Investors: What are you holding?

VTI VXF VB VXUS VSS UPRO SPXL Cash Currently > 120% equity -------------------------------- "Someone is going to be 100% in equities, which by definition is the best long-term strategy. Uh, and yet you may not be able to handle the bumps. Let me correct myself- No, 100% equities is not the best...
by Crushtheturtle
Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 22432

Re: Why the heck is the market up?!?!

There is rioting across the country. There are also good people as well, and this is nothing we haven't seen before. There is no relief from C19, and the protests will certainly make it worse. No relief? Things are opening up. Certainly? How do you know? Recent development with China are bad. Any i...
by Crushtheturtle
Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 15232
Views: 1177565

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Pow wrote: Mon Jun 01, 2020 9:27 pm https://www.chartfleau.com/sp500/
Swarm plot, cool. Thank you
by Crushtheturtle
Wed May 27, 2020 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is the stock market up? [thread multi-merge]
Replies: 521
Views: 22432

Re: Why is the market soaring?

Obvious initial overreaction is (was)... obvious.
by Crushtheturtle
Mon May 25, 2020 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alarming Bid/Ask Spreads on ETFs
Replies: 74
Views: 5376

Re: Alarming Bid/Ask Spreads on ETFs

nedsaid wrote: Sun May 24, 2020 10:29 pm As the old saying goes, liquidity tends to dry up in bear markets.
We're in a bear market?
by Crushtheturtle
Mon May 25, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 63
Views: 7005

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

You best start believing in V-shaped recoveries, Miss Swann. You're in one!
by Crushtheturtle
Fri May 22, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"
Replies: 36
Views: 2892

Re: Warren Buffett "Most People Shouldn't Pick Individual Stocks"

Will the world ever again know an investor as wise and insightful as Mr. Buffett?

He knows that the common man can't hope to match his intellect and abilities, and so shouldn't try.

Thank you for sharing your opinion once again, Mr. Buffett!
by Crushtheturtle
Wed Apr 22, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8957
Views: 881728

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Risk and Reward are linked. Can't have one without the other. Sure you can. Put a six-shooter with only five chambers empty to your head and pull the trigger. Tons of risk, no reward. Presumably, I would only be doing so to win a monetary wager, escape from the Russian mob, or obtain an adrenaline ...
by Crushtheturtle
Tue Apr 21, 2020 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 236
Views: 26311

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

According to Jack Bogle, International outperforms 9 out of 16 years (56% of the time).

The implication is clear: Why hold U.S.?

:twisted:
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8957
Views: 881728

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

A conscious balance must be struck between striving for return and limiting risk. The choice ... defies an easy answer. For example, consider this conundrum: Many people seem unwilling to do enough of anything ... such that it could significantly harm their results if it doesn’t work. But in order ...
by Crushtheturtle
Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8957
Views: 881728

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

So regarding the recent discussion: For those in the "separate bucket" camp, when you started small at (for example) 10% of your portfolio, the plan was to let it ride until it grows and you make the first yacht payment. At $10 million+, you cash out into the warm, welcoming arms of the 3-...
by Crushtheturtle
Tue Apr 07, 2020 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8957
Views: 881728

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

What is everyone's de-risking plan when you've reached the goals with your own personal adventure? If you haven't seen it already, Vineviz's recommendation from Page 1 of the original thread seems like a solid bet. Personally, I might target $120,000,000 in equity exposure by age 60 and add 55/45 V...
by Crushtheturtle
Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8957
Views: 881728

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Any guesses to how many out there are partaking on the excellent adventure? In some form or another. Strict 55/45% rebalance quarterly Old school 40/60% Percentages of UPRO/TMF based on some form of timing Slightly different ETFs but similar idea Other variations I might be missing? Another variati...
by Crushtheturtle
Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 8957
Views: 881728

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Lordosis wrote: Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:02 pm I have been following this threat since I discovered it last summer.
I sometimes think this might be the case...
8-)
by Crushtheturtle
Fri Apr 03, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 23285
Views: 3044407

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

It's down another 33% from here - about 1650 for the SnP. That would be 50% off the peak on 2/19. It could go even lower, but that would be a good point to start easing back in. Until then ZZZZZZZZZZZZ. What are you doing to take advantage of this guaranteed dramatic fall? Buying Puts? Shorting sto...