Search found 65 matches

by GodelianKnot
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 130
Views: 9340

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

Just because they don't require a new medical exam, doesn't mean they won't ask you a few questions to assess any potential health changes. (And purposefully lying about your medical condition would be insurance fraud, and would let them deny you a payout if they figured it out.) So, you might not w...
by GodelianKnot
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Are S&P 500 Index Options?
Replies: 22
Views: 2034

Re: What Are S&P 500 Index Options?

VaR wrote:
Sun Jul 01, 2018 6:37 pm
...use the price of the nearest S&P 500 futures contract since they trade liquidly 24x5 (6 pm EDT Sunday through 5 pm Friday, I think).
Technically 22.75x5. Since they pause trading from 4:15-4:30pm and from 5pm-6pm each day.
by GodelianKnot
Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 401K company match may have been too low. Seeking interpretations
Replies: 17
Views: 1488

Re: 401K company match may have been too low. Seeking interpretations

My one year of vesting completed in April 2014 (i.e., April 2013 - April 2014), which makes me think I'm due the higher company match. This seems like the most compelling reasoning for why you should get the higher match rate. The vesting schedule makes it clear that your 401k benefits started in 2...
by GodelianKnot
Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is today's furniture market wackier than ever?
Replies: 18
Views: 2659

Re: Is today's furniture market wackier than ever?

I definitely buy cheap, fairly disposable furniture. I love that I don't have to worry about messing it up, or changing my mind about style or function. Honestly, not even sure if or what I'm missing out on "quality"-wise, other than that maybe it won't last 30 years. But then, I don't want it to la...
by GodelianKnot
Thu Jun 28, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is your debt interest rate threshold?
Replies: 57
Views: 3973

Re: What is your debt interest rate threshold?

djpeteski wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:03 am
Playing the borrow and invest game, loses in long run.
Absolutely not true.
by GodelianKnot
Wed Jun 27, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1 million house--- sanity check
Replies: 101
Views: 12617

Re: $1 million house--- sanity check

Also, btw, why are you aggressively paying off student loans at 3.125% instead of your mortgage at 3.75%? OP would have to put in his exact numbers but given something like 32% fed and 9% CA, I have a hard time imaging that the mortgage rate is higher than the student loan rate. I expect the mortga...
by GodelianKnot
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: $1 million house--- sanity check
Replies: 101
Views: 12617

Re: $1 million house--- sanity check

The idea that you won't be able to afford a bigger house in the future is nonsense. You make a ton of money. Your earnings will absolutely out-pace the housing market. You can live comfortably on one paycheck, and easily save 100k+/year (in addition to retirement). Even if these houses are 1.5M in 5...
by GodelianKnot
Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is the first 100k really the hardest?
Replies: 156
Views: 47197

Re: Is the first 100k really the hardest?

I actually felt like my savings have gotten harder over the years. First 100k seemed easy as I was saving over 50% of my income. Then I got married, and savings dropped to maybe 40%. Then I bought a house, and savings dropped to 20%, then I had a kid and all I can do is max out a 401k at the moment....
by GodelianKnot
Wed Jun 20, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why pay cash for a car?
Replies: 250
Views: 34734

Re: Why pay cash for a car?

I find it interesting that a lot of people here feel like they'll spend less on a car if they pay cash. I feel exactly the opposite. I have plenty of savings/investments built up, so spending some of it on a car feels far easier to me than committing to an additional $500 in my monthly budget. The m...
by GodelianKnot
Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the Fed and Treasury distorting the MBS market?
Replies: 16
Views: 1847

Re: Are the Fed and Treasury distorting the MBS market?

jalbert wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:10 pm
lack_ey wrote:
Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:32 pm
Image
The Fed started unwinding treasuries, but not MBS, from its balance sheet in Oct 2017:

http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-stat ... ing-2017-9
The Fed is unwinding both.
by GodelianKnot
Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Almost flat yield curve implications.
Replies: 5
Views: 957

Re: Almost flat yield curve implications.

I see this for current Treasury yields: 2 year = 2.54% 10 year = 2.88% 30 year = 3.01% This is close to flat (at least it seems like that to me). 1. So what does that mean for the common wisdom (I often read) that interest rates are on the rise? 2. What are the broader implications? 3. Could the yi...
by GodelianKnot
Tue Jun 19, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Almost flat yield curve implications.
Replies: 5
Views: 957

Re: Almost flat yield curve implications.

sport wrote:
Tue Jun 19, 2018 12:54 pm
Another related question is: why are long interest rates so low?
1) Inflation remains calm
2) Fed's expected long-run neutral rate remains low
3) Market expects a recession in the next few years, ending the current Fed hiking cycle (and possibly requiring cuts)
by GodelianKnot
Fri Jun 15, 2018 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?
Replies: 40
Views: 4788

Re: Are Bogleheads smarter than the bond market?

It's not about being "smarter" than the bond market. It's about buying the duration that makes sense for you. For many market participants, owning long term bonds is necessary, regardless of the relative value compared to shorter term bonds. But for someone using bonds in their AA as a hedge against...
by GodelianKnot
Thu Jun 14, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%
Replies: 18
Views: 3543

Re: Gundlach sees 10 yr yields hitting 6%

FWIW, if 10yr yields did rise to 6%, you'd pretty much have to have the s&p sell off about 40% to maintain any semblance of risk premium.
by GodelianKnot
Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Price Manipulation
Replies: 45
Views: 5866

Re: Bitcoin Price Manipulation

Do you think the environmental aspects of the mining and transaction processing would eventually become too great for the world to tolerate? Maybe in the future instead of electric heaters people will just have mining rigs and heat their house with the waste heat... There are ways (eg Proof of Stak...
by GodelianKnot
Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: recommendations for HELOC? does it matter to pick the cheapest rate?
Replies: 11
Views: 1688

Re: recommendations for HELOC? does it matter to pick the cheapest rate?

4th and Inches wrote:
Thu Jun 14, 2018 7:49 am
Spirit Rider wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:45 pm

Also, be aware that the FED raised rates by 0.25% today, plan to do two more later in the year and likely four more in 2019.

Is that what the FED said? Two more increases this year and four next year?
Not quite. Their median prediction is 2 more this year, 3 in 2019, and 1 in 2020.
by GodelianKnot
Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best banks for checking accounts?
Replies: 33
Views: 4550

Re: Best banks for checking accounts?

You can pretty easily get 675 TY points from Citi every month if you have direct deposit, bill pay (eg mortgage or rent), checking & savings, and an auto save (just a transfer between your accounts). Worth about $5-$7/mo depending how you can use the points. More if you're citigold, or have other pr...
by GodelianKnot
Thu May 24, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations
Replies: 173
Views: 9488

Re: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations

I said over 1,000 square feet. My current apartment is 1,000 square feet. 2 bedroom at 1,000 square feet is tiny. I grew up in a 3000 sq ft house (family of 6), so I thought I needed a big house. The first house my wife and I bought (and had our two kids in) was a 4bd 2 ba 1100 sq ft. It was a litt...
by GodelianKnot
Thu May 24, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy this home?
Replies: 39
Views: 4508

Re: Buy this home?

Thinking about purchasing a new construction house in Seattle. Purchase price approximately $1,020,000. - I earn $155,000/yr and my wife earns $100,000/yr - We will put 30% down so mortgage will be ~$700K. The monthly payment (incl property tax) seems like something we can comfortably do with total...
by GodelianKnot
Thu May 24, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations
Replies: 173
Views: 9488

Re: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations

Current Expenses - total of $4k - Includes cell phone, internet/TV, gym membership, renters insurance, car insurance, groceries, alcohol/restaurants, electricity, rent, cabs, gas, misc, train, pet car, car costs, shopping Incremental Home Ownership Costs/month: Property taxes: $840 Lawn Care: $100 ...
by GodelianKnot
Thu May 24, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations
Replies: 173
Views: 9488

Re: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations

Another thought that's missing here - interest rates are rising. If they continue to rise and I wait, and housing prices at least hold, will be much more expensive to get this home and plays towards the getting priced out assumption. There's just as good reason to believe the opposite will happen. ...
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 23, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations
Replies: 173
Views: 9488

Re: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations

I realize from a purely financial perspective, not the best short term financial decision as its taking me from a comfortable position to uncomfortable. One other consideration is wife and I have been living in the same apartment for last 6 years and want something nicer. But, our rent is below mar...
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 23, 2018 7:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations
Replies: 173
Views: 9488

Re: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations

My major concern is from what I have seen in the market, specifically Needham, there is a strong chance I will be fully priced out of the market in a few years. Specifically, if I save up another 100k for down payment, and maybe increase income 20%, housing prices will outpace my savings and income...
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 23, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations
Replies: 173
Views: 9488

Re: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations

Can you give more detailed numbers on your actuals? I have budgeted these items already based on research and want to see where I land. A few items of note: -We'll have 1 car - wife takes the train to work and parents offered to help drive her around to other families houses if need be which they a...
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 23, 2018 5:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations
Replies: 173
Views: 9488

Re: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations

Is this truly realistic? Given how far ahead I am with retirement savings (have about $400k in retirement money), and the risk that I likely will get priced out, slowing down savings for a short period of time does not seem unrealistic. I also expect both me and my wife to be making much more money...
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 23, 2018 3:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations
Replies: 173
Views: 9488

Re: Purchasing a house, downpayment vs. retirement and other considerations

You didn’t mention your actual salaries. But if the house is going to prevent you from reaching your other financial goals (like making you reduce your 401(k) contributions), then you may be getting in over your heads. Also consider what happens if one of you loses your job or decides to cut back y...
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 23, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey it or keep low interest debt
Replies: 134
Views: 10638

Re: Dave Ramsey it or keep low interest debt

Risk that the bank screws up, and your zero percent flips to 18% and your 2.5% you are grinding out on the $20k a year, is decimated in a matter of minutes between the higher finance charge, the late payment fee, and the whatever else they decide to tack on. Even if you can get the bank to work wit...
by GodelianKnot
Tue May 22, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey it or keep low interest debt
Replies: 134
Views: 10638

Re: Dave Ramsey it or keep low interest debt

I sometimes think people thumb their nose at Ramsey because they didn’t think of it first l, and/or for some reason if something is simple it can’t be effective. No; it's just that it's bad advice for anyone who's not emotionally controlled by debt. I must say, I’m actually jealous of people who do...
by GodelianKnot
Tue May 22, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey it or keep low interest debt
Replies: 134
Views: 10638

Re: Dave Ramsey it or keep low interest debt

BradJ wrote:
Tue May 22, 2018 11:59 am
I sometimes think people thumb their nose at Ramsey because they didn’t think of it first l, and/or for some reason if something is simple it can’t be effective.
No; it's just that it's bad advice for anyone who's not emotionally controlled by debt.
by GodelianKnot
Tue May 22, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey it or keep low interest debt
Replies: 134
Views: 10638

Re: Dave Ramsey it or keep low interest debt

Dave Ramsey’s advice isn’t perfect, but it’s core principle is, and that is freedom. It’s not about low interest rates or small loan percentage in relation to earnings, it’s at the end of the day that money is all mine (or God’s in my opinion). So the question is not to Dave Ramsey it or not, but w...
by GodelianKnot
Mon May 21, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey it or keep low interest debt
Replies: 134
Views: 10638

Re: Dave Ramsey it or keep low interest debt

Yes, mathematically (and ignoring any cash-flow considerations) you would be better off having the money in an essentially risk-free investment that pays more than your loans' interest rates. But better off by how much ? Your 58K in vehicle debt is costing you about $700 a year right now (obviously...
by GodelianKnot
Fri May 18, 2018 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Dave Ramsey it or keep low interest debt
Replies: 134
Views: 10638

Re: Dave Ramsey it or keep low interest debt

Why would you borrow $58k at 1.24% to invest in a 2% savings or money market? Or even invest it in index funds, say Total Market. Why not saving up the money you earn and use that as investments? Because at the end of the day, it's all yours and not the banks. There is a reason why banks have nicer...
by GodelianKnot
Thu May 17, 2018 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5500

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

You can't test it in portfoliovisualizer, because flat yield curves are rare and have historically always led to stock market declines. So, please show what portfoliovisualizer test you're running to come to your conclusions. Well, sure you have to consider market declines. But consider the period ...
by GodelianKnot
Thu May 17, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5500

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

By "better balance" do you mean have a negative correlation to stocks? Because, yes, that's generally been true. But that's actually not what you want in a portfolio. You should rather have uncorrelated assets, not negatively correlated ones. So, if your long term bonds offset x% of your stocks by ...
by GodelianKnot
Thu May 17, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5500

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

No, the point remains. When you are constructing an SP500 + bonds portfolio, you'll need a higher bonds percentage to reach the same level of overall risk if you're using long term bonds, compared to short term. Thus your total returns ( at the same level of risk ) will be better with the stocks + ...
by GodelianKnot
Thu May 17, 2018 7:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5500

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

OK... so you are saying that longer term bonds did better than shorter term bonds, but actually longer term did worse because if instead you had invested in mostly cash you would have done worse than shorter term bonds. It's all starting to make sense... :confused Do you understand risk-adjusted re...
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 16, 2018 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5500

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

You are constructing a portfolio of inter vs short+cash And short+cash wins. inter+cash also wins long But try to construct a portfolio with SP500 + bonds (SP500 about 60%). You'll see that long wins So it's about the combination of assets. Even if long are riskier after a flat curve, they may stil...
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 16, 2018 3:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5500

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

OK... so you are saying that longer term bonds did better than shorter term bonds, but actually longer term did worse because if instead you had invested in mostly cash you would have done worse than shorter term bonds. It's all starting to make sense... :confused Do you understand risk-adjusted re...
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 16, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5500

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

I'm talking about relative value. If you had owned 10yr treasuries in 2007 as you suggested was a good idea, you'd have been better off selling them and buying 2yr treasuries instead. That's what the graph I showed says. So, if we presuppose something "has" to give, why would we think it has to be ...
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 16, 2018 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5500

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=jRj9 If you had bought 2yr treasuries and sold 10yr treasuries (in duration-weighted proportion), you'd have done very well from 2007-2009. When would you have bought the ten year treasuries you are selling? I'm talking about relative value. If you had owned 10y...
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 16, 2018 9:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5500

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

Yield curves were flat in 2007 too. Even flatter in fact. Did 2007 turn out to be a bad time to buy long term government debt? Relative to short/intermediate term government debt? Yes. Evidence? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=jRj9 If you had bought 2yr treasuries and sold 10yr treasuries (in ...
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 16, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5500

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

raven15 wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 8:49 pm
Yield curves were flat in 2007 too. Even flatter in fact. Did 2007 turn out to be a bad time to buy long term government debt?
Relative to short/intermediate term government debt? Yes.
by GodelianKnot
Fri May 11, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New Car Purchase
Replies: 11
Views: 1978

Re: New Car Purchase

GoldenGoose wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 12:45 pm
I didn't realize this at that time but there was a purpose for the sales manager to ask us that question multiple times? Does anyone know why?
In my experience, they want you to say something like "Truecar" and then they'll go into a list of reasons why that's not an accurate price or whatever.
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 09, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pay capital gains now, avoid ACA cliff later?
Replies: 22
Views: 3169

Re: Pay capital gains now, avoid ACA cliff later?

New information. I found out I can get Cobra insurance from my employer for 18 months. I'd like to retire in June,2020, then Cobra will cover me for the rest of that year and the next year. I could realize my big gains in that time period and not worry about ACA cliff. Does that sound like a good p...
by GodelianKnot
Wed May 09, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying new car or buying used car
Replies: 91
Views: 7083

Re: Buying new car or buying used car

Nah, I rarely see anyone I know in real life buy a new car and drive it past 15 year mark. Some might get it past 10 years and then looking to new cars with fancy tech. It's not about making my numbers look better. It's about the reality how long you actually can keep the vehicle. The denominator i...
by GodelianKnot
Tue May 08, 2018 12:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying new car or buying used car
Replies: 91
Views: 7083

Re: Buying new car or buying used car

Not sure this is a fair comparison. Toyota started offering their Safety Sense suite standard on all their cars in 2017. That's a significant upgrade from their 2016 models, that wouldn't be captured in a normal 2yr rolldown. This is not valid reasoning. If you use this reasoning you will never buy...
by GodelianKnot
Tue May 08, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying new car or buying used car
Replies: 91
Views: 7083

Re: Buying new car or buying used car

Not sure this is a fair comparison. Toyota started offering their Safety Sense suite standard on all their cars in 2017. That's a significant upgrade from their 2016 models, that wouldn't be captured in a normal 2yr rolldown. This is not valid reasoning. If you use this reasoning you will never buy...
by GodelianKnot
Tue May 08, 2018 9:56 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying new car or buying used car
Replies: 91
Views: 7083

Re: Buying new car or buying used car

I did a quick check of two models by Toyota, Camry and Corolla using local Truecar good price and a typical used car price for a 2016 model (they range from 10k-40k miles). Choosing LE models and just normal options package. 2018 Camry ~$24k average price for LE 2016 Camry ~$17k, many listings for ...
by GodelianKnot
Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Understanding realized/unrealized gains in crypto world
Replies: 33
Views: 1793

Re: Understanding realized/unrealized gains in crypto world

If you are worried about taxes, if you are in the lower tax brackets you don't pay capital gains taxes at the federal level and you only pay 15 or 20% if you are in the higher tax brackets. This is for long-term capital gains. Unless you're in the middle of AMT, in which case your long-term capital...
by GodelianKnot
Thu Apr 05, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: NY passes law to get around SALT limit
Replies: 47
Views: 7880

Re: NY passes law to get around SALT limit

Also not sure if this helps. With $24k in standard deduction, would have to have lots of other deductions or very large property taxes to bother making payments to this "charity". So I would be able to deduct $10k in state income tax (if I still pay that after the other change that is up to my empl...