Search found 5933 matches

by yobria
Tue Oct 23, 2012 1:06 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: The Let's-Sell-Our-House- And-See-the-World Retirement - WSJ
Replies: 78
Views: 8342

Re: The Let's-Sell-Our-House- And-See-the-World Retirement -

These people are definitely adventurous and little nuts IMO and they spend too much money somehow. Their internet home page talks about crossing the Mexico-US border at El Paso. This is the MOST dangerous place in the US or Mexico or most likely anywhere in the world. Maybe. I find things are often...
by yobria
Fri Oct 19, 2012 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing
Replies: 6
Views: 655

Re: Rebalancing

No, but there are some cases where it would make sense. For example, if I were a retiree, I might be more hesistant to rebalance after a sharp stock decline due to the diminishing marginal utility of money.
by yobria
Fri Oct 19, 2012 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Swensen allocation via vanguard ?
Replies: 6
Views: 1487

Re: Swensen allocation via vanguard ?

Keep in mind Swensen emphasizes repeatedly that you should vary your asset allocation based on your unique situation. I'd read his book carefully before following his starter portfolio too closely.
by yobria
Tue Oct 16, 2012 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Hourly financial advisor
Replies: 2
Views: 525

Re: Hourly financial advisor

Depending on your area, Yelp may also have some hourly guys. You probably won't get as good advice is you'll get here collectively, though. You could always post their recommendations here for second opinions.
by yobria
Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Permanent Portfolio in Europe/Germany
Replies: 70
Views: 11129

Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe/Germany

Interest in a gold heavy portfolio when it was cheap (before its run-up over the last few years) was about as widespread as a natural gas and Japanese stock heavy portfolio is today. Buy low, sell high. That's what the PP does. It buys low and sells high in a mechanical fashion that looks brilliant...
by yobria
Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Permanent Portfolio in Europe/Germany
Replies: 70
Views: 11129

Re: Permanent Portfolio in Europe/Germany

Interest in a gold heavy portfolio when it was cheap (before its run-up over the last few years) was about as widespread as a natural gas and Japanese stock heavy portfolio is today. Buy low, sell high.
by yobria
Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Knives set recommendations
Replies: 43
Views: 5166

Re: Knives set recommendations

I must say my flimsy $10 santoku comes out of the drawer more often than my Henckels. Slices and dices easier, very easy to keep sharp. For meat, a cheap boning knife gets the most use. Good chefs knives are best for tougher tasks, like cutting through a beet, but you don't need them for lighter work.
by yobria
Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: iShares Lowers Expense Ratios -- unless you own EEM or EFA
Replies: 19
Views: 2703

Re: iShares Lowers Expense Ratios -- unless you own EEM or E

I guess they had to come up with a compromise between competing with Vanguard on low fees or profits. They couldn't give up the revenue from the customers in EEM paying 0.67% ER so they created a new emerging market ETF that undercuts Vanguard with an expense ratio of 0.18%. So glad I don't own EEM...
by yobria
Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock and Fixed Income Investing Decisions.
Replies: 17
Views: 1196

Re: Stock and Fixed Income Investing Decisions.

In theory, investing in bonds should be a lot more difficult. The problem is stocks are all pretty much all the same animal, but a fixed income product is a unique contract, and a contract can contain any terms you want. Some are extremely complex. Even comparing terms on a simple bank CD can be a h...
by yobria
Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:47 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What's the Current Estimate of the Liberal Arts?
Replies: 23
Views: 1671

Re: What's the Current Estimate of the Liberal Arts?

Value is the same as it's always been - somewhere between none (you go back to being a waiter after getting that degree) and very high (you go on to win a Nobel prize, etc). On the other side of the equation, the cost is certainly higher than it once was. And I think people are more aware of the imp...
by yobria
Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Small Cap Value not risky enough for you? Try this:
Replies: 30
Views: 3779

Re: 100% Small Cap Value not risky enough for you? Try this:

It follows from the Two Mutual Fund theorem that one can squeeze out even more expected returns by placing 100% of capital set aside for domestic equities in small cap value, and shorting the rest of the stock market. There is no "everything but Sm-Val" ETF but one can short VTI or SPY to...
by yobria
Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Advisors: buy and hold; yes but what other systems?
Replies: 3
Views: 666

Re: Advisors: buy and hold; yes but what other systems?

Stock pickers? Hot fund pickers? Just what other systems are used? Paul Merriman used DFA for 80% of his clients and trend following market timing for the 20% who could not stomach the steep periodic market drops All of the above, and many more. Advisors are like a box of chocolates - you never kno...
by yobria
Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle on the origins of Growth Index and Value Index
Replies: 43
Views: 4966

Re: Bogle on the origins of Growth Index and Value Index

Interesting find. I'll add to the long list of reasons I've seen on this board why people overweight value or growth. I just use the %s for Kindle refs. Usually gets you within a few pages.
by yobria
Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wider rebalance bands to benefit from momentum?
Replies: 13
Views: 1055

Re: Wider rebalance bands to benefit from momentum?

I think chasing unexplained historical patterns like momentum is probably harmless unless is has some negative side effect, which in this case would be letting the risk profile of your portfolio get out of whack.
by yobria
Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Live CCF return data
Replies: 35
Views: 2119

Re: Live CCF return data

Not sure if this has been posted, but Boglehead Murray Coleman had a recent piece on the WSJ site about the potential challenges facing this fund: http://blogs.wsj.com/financial-adviser/ ... more-heat/ .
by yobria
Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In the end, we're all stock market timers aren't we?
Replies: 33
Views: 2739

Re: In the end, we're all stock market timers aren't we?

Seems you labeled that set of behaviors "market timing". You could just as easily have labeled them "oak tree". Labels are irrelevant. Are you saying there's something wrong with that set of behaviors? I invest in a global portfolio during my adult life because that's when I have...
by yobria
Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: Shiller, Siegel, Stack, Arnott on CAPE
Replies: 21
Views: 2263

Re: NYT: Shiller, Siegel, Stack, Arnott on CAPE

Thanks for the link - excellent brief give-and-take re: the difference between what CAPE is indicating vs. the 1-year trailing P/E or forward P/E. I think there are a couple of nice counterpoints to the view I've seen advocated on this forum that CAPE is not to be trusted because the last decade ha...
by yobria
Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Individual Stocks
Replies: 63
Views: 5601

Re: Individual Stocks

I'd rather have a share in today's Top 20 businesses, and tomorrow's as well.
by yobria
Sun Oct 14, 2012 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in it?
Replies: 31
Views: 3596

Re: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in

I hold the Vanguard Global REIT Index in my Roth IRA; the 5% foreign tax credit isn't worth the tax cost for holding a fund with a high yield and only 20% qualified dividends in my taxable account. The FTC credit is 5 percent? That's what it was last year, and most other foreign real estate ETFs al...
by yobria
Sun Oct 14, 2012 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I got sideswiped today by co-workers on this subject
Replies: 58
Views: 6798

Re: I got sideswiped today by co-workers on this subject

At 3.5 percent I pay to live in my home, I would rather pay that percentage and then let most of my money ride in 401k stocks that are netting me a healthy 15 percent at the current moment. In the years when stocks net you a healthy 15%/year, that strategy works. In years/decades where they net you...
by yobria
Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Synthesizing TSM
Replies: 51
Views: 3420

Re: Synthesizing TSM

TSM maximizes diversification because it's the most even bet on what the market finds valuable. If the market thinks X-Co's patent is worth $100, and Y-Co's is worth $100, you'll own an equal interest in each patent. How to most closely replicate this evenly spread bet with a barbell portfolio missi...
by yobria
Sat Oct 13, 2012 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low correlation assets, rebalancing bonus, and taxes
Replies: 38
Views: 4984

Re: Low correlation assets, rebalancing bonus, and taxes

No interest in getting into a debate about issue but An asset class must have the prospect of a real rate of return on a stand-alone basis. If it was correct there would not be an insurance industry. There are assets that serve as portfolio insurance and thus can play a role. And for example, if on...
by yobria
Sat Oct 13, 2012 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in it?
Replies: 31
Views: 3596

Re: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in

Has anyone done a tax analysis on Vanguard's foreign RE fund? What I'd like to know is how much of the gross dividends are taxed once (like a US REIT fund), and how much are taxed two or more times.
by yobria
Sat Oct 13, 2012 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low correlation assets, rebalancing bonus, and taxes
Replies: 38
Views: 4984

Re: Low correlation assets, rebalancing bonus, and taxes

MPT says that if one invests in assets with low or negative correlation (and similar expected returns) and has good rebalancing discipline, expected returns are higher. In other words, assuming one can manage to stick to an investing plan, investing in a fixed ratio of Total Stock Market, Internati...
by yobria
Sat Oct 13, 2012 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in it?
Replies: 31
Views: 3596

Re: International REIT / Real Estate Fund - Do you invest in

No it's a sector bet IMO, with reduced diversification benefit vs US REIT as it's subject to the same foreign currency swings as any other foreign stock fund. No free lunches out there. Keep it simple.
by yobria
Fri Oct 12, 2012 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Synthesizing TSM
Replies: 51
Views: 3420

Re: Synthesizing TSM

TSM is just an arbitrary portfolio. A total stock market index fund is not arbitrary. It is a fund whose price represents the valuation of millions of investors. The Total Stock Market it is on the Efficient Frontier (the highest expected return with the least amount of risk, or lowest risk with th...
by yobria
Fri Oct 12, 2012 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The devil made me do it, a little fun with numbers
Replies: 26
Views: 3470

Re: The devil made me do it, a little fun with numbers

larryswedroe wrote:Beagler
In another post I pointed out how even experts misremember their forecasts because the truth is too painful, they convince themselves they were right. You provided another example of that.
Best wishes
Larry


I'd be happy to respond to any comments you have on my post, Larry.
by yobria
Fri Oct 12, 2012 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT article: "A Hard Landing for University Endowments"
Replies: 25
Views: 2923

Re: NYT article: "A Hard Landing for University Endowments"

Interesting. My rule - if your school doesn't have a lot of loyal alumni on Wall St., go with index funds.
by yobria
Fri Oct 12, 2012 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Synthesizing TSM
Replies: 51
Views: 3420

Re: Synthesizing TSM

There's no perfect answer, but I'd probably go 9:1 if the cost was the same. Here you overweight most of the market slightly, which IMO is better than some small corner significantly.
by yobria
Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Large-Cap Stock Indexes Always Growth-Tilted?
Replies: 34
Views: 2858

Re: Are Large-Cap Stock Indexes Always Growth-Tilted?

I think it is a question of how one defines risk and how much weight one gives to risk. The traders obvious goal is to make money and they have, on average, decided that the largest companies are those that provide the best risk-adjusted returns. If there were other companies that provided higher r...
by yobria
Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The devil made me do it, a little fun with numbers
Replies: 26
Views: 3470

Re: The devil made me do it, a little fun with numbers

Yobria You keep repeating falsehoods and incorrect statements no matter how many times you are told you are wrong. One would think enough embarrassment is enough. You even continued to cite papers even after their errors were shown and the author even admitted them. The truth seems to escape you. I...
by yobria
Wed Oct 10, 2012 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you overweight emerging markets?
Replies: 83
Views: 8395

Re: Do you overweight emerging markets?

I value maximum economic diverisification more than how "different" each country may be from the US. I understand your point, but my portfolio is based on the idea of having a small collection of sharply divergent assets. (at least the most divergent ones I can find) "Economic Divers...
by yobria
Wed Oct 10, 2012 4:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't the general public care about expense ratios?
Replies: 101
Views: 8980

Re: Why doesn't the general public care about expense ratios

Given the importance of retirement savings and and an entire array of other important financial issues, why is a there not a mandatory class in high school (or college) which addresses the basics of personal finance ? There are some places where it is required. I don't have the statistics at hand, ...
by yobria
Wed Oct 10, 2012 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The devil made me do it, a little fun with numbers
Replies: 26
Views: 3470

Re: The devil made me do it, a little fun with numbers

LOL So now past patterns don't matter. Or is it that those who don't know their history are doomed to repeat the same mistakes Past patterns matter when there is a logical reason for the pattern to exist, when statistical tests of significance help provide confidence that the result is not data min...
by yobria
Wed Oct 10, 2012 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you overweight emerging markets?
Replies: 83
Views: 8395

Re: Do you overweight emerging markets?

Interesting to see so many folks overweighting EM at the expense of developed. I don't think a 2X overweight is harmful (50/50 EM/Developed). On the other hand, ignoring this important source of diversification would be a foolish mistake. Certainly financial advisors who did wound up costing their ...
by yobria
Wed Oct 10, 2012 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you overweight emerging markets?
Replies: 83
Views: 8395

Re: Do you overweight emerging markets?

My international allocation is 50% emerging, 50% developed. I have no idea which of these will perform better over the next few decades, so anything other than 50/50 seems unwarranted. Of course you could make that claim about any arbitrary division of the global market. I have no idea whether a co...
by yobria
Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina 2001 devaluation, brokerage accounts ok?
Replies: 2
Views: 613

Re: Argentina 2001 devaluation, brokerage accounts ok?

Unknowable without having the specifics of the product you're talking about, but generally if you hold a certificate for a share of stock, you have a claim on that asset, regardless of currency fluctuations or which country you're in.
by yobria
Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The devil made me do it, a little fun with numbers
Replies: 26
Views: 3470

Re: The devil made me do it, a little fun with numbers

If you've been reading my blog for any length of time, you know that data mining (or the act of messing with numbers to find specific patterns) should provide investors little more than a chuckle. Indeed, though since the human mind is tuned to look for patterns, and there's a whole industry promot...
by yobria
Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RZV
Replies: 16
Views: 1916

Re: RZV

Ever found yourself saying, "I really like this Honda, but Ford stock has higher factor loadings. I guess I have to buy the Ford, so its stock will outperform?" Probably not. And neither have the customers of the stocks that RZV is betting on. There is no Factor Fairy, just a bunch of com...
by yobria
Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you overweight emerging markets?
Replies: 83
Views: 8395

Re: Do you overweight emerging markets?

Interesting to see so many folks overweighting EM at the expense of developed. I don't think a 2X overweight is harmful (50/50 EM/Developed). On the other hand, ignoring this important source of diversification would be a foolish mistake. Certainly financial advisors who did wound up costing their c...
by yobria
Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RZV
Replies: 16
Views: 1916

Re: RZV

Ever found yourself saying, "I really like this Honda, but Ford stock has higher factor loadings. I guess I have to buy the Ford, so its stock will outperform?" Probably not. And neither have the customers of the stocks that RZV is betting on. There is no Factor Fairy, just a bunch of comp...
by yobria
Tue Oct 09, 2012 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: up to $1000 for transfer into Etrade
Replies: 52
Views: 10187

Re: up to $1000 for transfer into Etrade

Default User BR wrote:
yobria wrote:Just be sure you don't mind dancing with the devil. Subject line of today's spam from Etrade: "Options were made for times like these".

Who cares?


Brian


An insightful question, Brian. I bring it up because some folks might care who they invest with.
by yobria
Tue Oct 09, 2012 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the return on stock vs real estate investing?
Replies: 64
Views: 4910

Re: What are the return on stock vs real estate investing?

Adjusted for risk, leverage, and effort/time, I'd expect them to give the same return.
by yobria
Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't the general public care about expense ratios?
Replies: 101
Views: 8980

Re: Why doesn't the general public care about expense ratios

I think people care. Note growth of Vanguard, and how other fund companies have had to dramatically lower fees to compete. For those who don't care, well, a fool and his gold are soon parted. The problem is a lot simpler if you invest directly. An advisor layer between you and your money introduces...
by yobria
Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How lazy can we be with Vanguard?
Replies: 38
Views: 5605

Re: How lazy can we be with Vanguard?

Having worked for a variety of financial companies, I trust that a company as large and developed as Vanguard has enough controls in place, and is audited redundantly enough, that I don't have to worry. I did place a restriction on our accounts there to prevent anyone from withdrawing money from them.
by yobria
Tue Oct 09, 2012 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: up to $1000 for transfer into Etrade
Replies: 52
Views: 10187

Re: up to $1000 for transfer into Etrade

Just be sure you don't mind dancing with the devil. Subject line of today's spam from Etrade: "Options were made for times like these".
by yobria
Tue Oct 09, 2012 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't the general public care about expense ratios?
Replies: 101
Views: 8980

Re: Why doesn't the general public care about expense ratios

I think people care. Note growth of Vanguard, and how other fund companies have had to dramatically lower fees to compete. For those who don't care, well, a fool and his gold are soon parted. The problem is a lot simpler if you invest directly. An advisor layer between you and your money introduces ...
by yobria
Tue Oct 09, 2012 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 33
Views: 6630

Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Hatch Batten wrote:Here's a similar chart for sectors - Dow Jones 1992-2009

http://allfinancialmatters.com/2010/08/ ... 1992-2009/


Interesting, I hadn't seen that one. Same message.
by yobria
Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 33
Views: 6630

Re: Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

Seeing recent threads on more and more precise ways to model historical stock returns, and a few posts re: how dramatically to bet this or that corner of the stock market, I figured this thread was worth a bump. Looking at Vanguard funds, it appears growth will beat value again this year, and large ...
by yobria
Mon Oct 08, 2012 7:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is Long Term Care Insurance worth buying?
Replies: 37
Views: 1966

Re: Is Long Term Care Insurance worth buying?

I have term life insurance, some disability, car insurance, home insurance and an umbrella policy. I don't have long term care insurance is it worth buying. How expensive is it? Not for me personally, but that will depend on your personal situation (marital status, genetics, opinion of the insuranc...