Search found 1025 matches

by asif408
Wed Sep 20, 2017 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum
Replies: 16
Views: 599

Re: Oil - Price & Supply/Demand Conundrum

Should we overweight or underweight the energy sector of our portfolios? I say overweight, but that is primarily based on the negative to flat 3, 5, and 10 year returns of energy funds. Some argue that oil may go the way of railroads, and although that may happen one day, these things don't happen ...
by asif408
Wed Sep 13, 2017 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If U.S. Stocks Stay Expensive For Years?
Replies: 50
Views: 6793

Re: What If U.S. Stocks Stay Expensive For Years?

The issue is that many return projections these days just assume U.S. stock market valuations will eventually “revert to the mean” — see Research Affiliates, GMO and others — and their expected return forecasts are very low as a result. But what if U.S. stock valuations never mean-revert to a long ...
by asif408
Wed Sep 13, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Herd mentality
Replies: 40
Views: 1776

Re: Herd mentality

People who can accurately calculate their investing returns over a long period of time are about as numerous as those who can with any degree of accuracy calculate how many calories they are eating on a daily basis over many years. Which is to say, not many.
by asif408
Wed Sep 06, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: vwo or eem ?
Replies: 9
Views: 554

Re: vwo or eem ?

Here's a performance comparison since inception of VWO (which started later): http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf/chart.action?t=VWO®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Afalse%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSettingId%2...
by asif408
Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 52
Views: 5322

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Over the next few months we should start seeing more posts about people overweighting EM again ;) I'm still seeing a lot of "Do I need international stocks" and "USA!, USA!" type posts, so I think we're still a few years away from that being outweighed by the "How about I overweight EM" posts. When...
by asif408
Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Categories
Replies: 6
Views: 559

Re: Asset Categories

You might want to add inflation-protected securities, like TIPS and I-bonds. They aren't so much of a diversifier against stocks (though they could function that way) but more of a way to protect money you will need in the near future from unexpected inflation and deflation (as least if you own indi...
by asif408
Wed Aug 30, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM
Replies: 65
Views: 5360

Re: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM

Speaking of 20 years ago, I would read various articles and literature and as a result was overweighted in small cap, value, international and REITS. I missed a bit of the 2000 run up, but that allocation served me very well after 2000. My portfolio hit was about half of the S&P, and some of those ...
by asif408
Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM
Replies: 65
Views: 5360

Re: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM

My sentiments are close to yours, although I haven't acted on them nearly to that degree. I may marginally boost EM and international and reduce domestic, but I just don't make big speculative moves. I tend to lean pessimistic at times as an investor, but I have learned such instincts typically don...
by asif408
Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM
Replies: 65
Views: 5360

Re: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM

I got rid of almost all of my US stocks last year, except for about 10% in US energy companies. The rest is in EM, developed ex-US, and a small slice in precious metals equities (PME). I've been shifting to more international for the last several years, but initially started off doing it slowly. I a...
by asif408
Tue Aug 29, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle video (discusses international)
Replies: 44
Views: 3875

Re: John Bogle video (discusses international)

These "How much international should I hold?" discussions are getting old. Nothing new to add that hasn't already been said. Perhaps the moderators could merge new discussions into one global thread. I agree they are old, but I think it's good to keep having them, because it gives a sense of invest...
by asif408
Mon Aug 28, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilt away from one's home country slightly
Replies: 18
Views: 1833

Re: Tilt away from one's home country slightly

This I think is recency bias at work. International has underperformed. So people shun it. Agreed, and this is why I am heavily tilted to international stocks. But I know I am in the minority here, and in an even smaller minority when I look outside the Bogleheads community. Most people are not com...
by asif408
Mon Aug 28, 2017 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Reducing International Holdings?
Replies: 14
Views: 1365

Re: Reducing International Holdings?

As others have said, if the purpose is risk management you should first reduce your stock/bond allocation. Then if you think international has more value why not tilt your remaining stock portion heavily to international?
by asif408
Fri Aug 25, 2017 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilt away from one's home country slightly
Replies: 18
Views: 1833

Re: Tilt away from one's home country slightly

If you do decide to tilt away from the US, you might feel like the lone ranger: https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/24/the-rise-of-portfolio-isolationism-and-why-you-must-resist.html. Apparently most of the younger investment crowd doesn't have a whole lot of interest in international equities, and it's fa...
by asif408
Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out
Replies: 74
Views: 9924

Re: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out

Recognizing that all of the information is public, then one has to come up with a reason that we have discovered the international market to be undervalued, BUT NO ONE ELSE HAS REALIZED IT. Experience has taught me that when I convince myself I am the only person in the world who knows something, I...
by asif408
Wed Aug 23, 2017 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out
Replies: 74
Views: 9924

Re: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out

Likewise, if the expected return on stocks is less (Research Affiliates expects .5%, Hussman zero or negative, GMO -3.9%) the current MM rate, why would I not wait it out? I don't because US stocks aren't the only equity investment in the world. There are readily available investments other than US...
by asif408
Tue Aug 22, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios
Replies: 14
Views: 2146

Re: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios

Thanks for the detailed explanation, siamond. I've ignored Vanguard's P/E data since I've been with them just because the numbers always seemed a bit off. One thing I have noticed about P/E values in general is that there is not standard way they are reported in most of the financial media. I've see...
by asif408
Tue Aug 22, 2017 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: E.R. vs % gain
Replies: 5
Views: 388

Re: E.R. vs % gain

Or would I be better off to try and re-balance and change allocation so my %'s somewhat mirror what's in the Target Fund? maybe that is the key, i dont know. Bingo. If you want to match the future returns of that fund minus expenses you have to match the allocation. Otherwise, you will be different...
by asif408
Mon Aug 14, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SP500/Total Stock Market
Replies: 23
Views: 1541

Re: SP500/Total Stock Market

Over the last 10 years, TSM earned you about $300 more on a $10,000 investment than the S&P: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VFINX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A9%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mai...
by asif408
Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Ownership / Investing
Replies: 18
Views: 928

Re: Home Ownership / Investing

rocket354 wrote:The answer to what is the most cost-effective way to arrange one's housing is: buy the lowest-priced home you can get away with, and live in it for a long time.
Sounds like the way I invest: buy the cheapest stocks I can and hold them for a long time.
by asif408
Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Home Ownership / Investing
Replies: 18
Views: 928

Re: Home Ownership / Investing

I've done quite a bit of research lately as more and more friends/couples in my social circle buy homes and/or move back to their parents in order to save for this "American Dream" ... all i hear from older folks is how it's an "investment" and you should put as much money down as possible. In read...
by asif408
Fri Aug 11, 2017 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Checkup - Major Life Event
Replies: 15
Views: 1957

Re: Portfolio Checkup - Major Life Event

I think you have a pretty good plan. It's looks like you could potentially hold fewer funds across each account by consolidating. For example, your Roth could be all bonds, then you could remove the other small bond holdings elsewhere. Here is some more info on doing that: https://www.bogleheads.or...
by asif408
Thu Aug 10, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Checkup - Major Life Event
Replies: 15
Views: 1957

Re: Portfolio Checkup - Major Life Event

I think you have a pretty good plan. It's looks like you could potentially hold fewer funds across each account by consolidating. For example, your Roth could be all bonds, then you could remove the other small bond holdings elsewhere. Here is some more info on doing that: https://www.bogleheads.org...
by asif408
Wed Aug 09, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to not obsess over investments?
Replies: 46
Views: 3843

Re: How to not obsess over investments?

You could always try books about investing or listening to podcasts, since you are obviously very interested in it all. That would give you something to read, listen, and learn, and distract you from checking your accounts. Of course it could prompt you to do something with your investments, which I...
by asif408
Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Need help understanding TIPS funds
Replies: 15
Views: 1381

Re: Need help understanding TIPS funds

If not the TIPS fund, what are solid strategies that people use to protect from future inflation? As far as safe investments go, TIPS and I-bonds are about the best you can do to guard against inflation. If you hold a decent percentage in stocks, then you could consider allocation greater percentag...
by asif408
Fri Aug 04, 2017 4:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: Who Sold Stock During the 2008-9 Crash?
Replies: 85
Views: 7330

Re: Study: Who Sold Stock During the 2008-9 Crash?

The positive relationship between high income and increased selling is more puzzling. Consumption commitments should be less relevant to high income individuals. Some explanations offered are that high-income investors perhaps have overconfidence in their market timing abilities and they also pay g...
by asif408
Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do with 2.50% HSA Checking?
Replies: 10
Views: 735

Re: What to do with 2.50% HSA Checking?

Kind of depends how much is in the HSA and how you'll invest. If it's less than $10K probably best to just keep in the savings account and consider it part of your fixed income. If over that amount then it may be worth moving it all into investment and use stock mutual funds. Honestly, though, if yo...
by asif408
Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Burned out at 28. Do I have enough?
Replies: 62
Views: 9788

Re: Burned out at 28. Do I have enough?

Has anyone left a high paying job in their late twenties in the pursuit of a more stable life on a modest income? Or should I just stick out a few more years and continue to destroy my personal life for more money? :? :wink: I didn't necessarily leave a much higher paying job, but I did career tran...
by asif408
Wed Aug 02, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYTimes: dollar down, dow up?
Replies: 2
Views: 527

Re: NYTimes: dollar down, dow up?

I'm not sure about their Dow analysis, but I know a weaker dollar is better for my foreign stocks, which have handily outperformed my US stocks since around Christmas of last year.
by asif408
Tue Aug 01, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks
Replies: 505
Views: 32783

Re: John Bogle Has Been Right About Investing In International Stocks

Most of the critiques around international seem to center around its relative performance compared to US TM over the last 3 decades or so. Given that future performance is unknowable, this leads me to a thought experiment: If International TM and US TM were to perform nearly identically in the futu...
by asif408
Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 27
Views: 2572

Re: International and US CAPE

Thanks, you're right, I misread some of the data (using the AR website) - though CAPE for EM was very low by the end of 2008, it rebounded by mid 2009 until what looks to be mid 2012 or so. The thing about end of 2008 is that every region was low; the chart you noted shows EM vs US valuation, but I...
by asif408
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 27
Views: 2572

Re: International and US CAPE

My understanding of CAPE is that it's a notoriously poor market-timing tool (e.g. Cape data has been supportive of an overweight position in EM since 2008, but only in 2017 has that approach born much advantage. Europe/EAFE is very similar in that Cape is on the low end of the historical range, and...
by asif408
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International & US CAPE: Research Affiliates, Barclays, StarCapital
Replies: 27
Views: 2572

Re: International and US CAPE

Research Affiliates is legit, though of course the people running them also run funds that use fundamental indexing, so I'm sure they have some bias towards that. The CAPE differences are for good, legitimate reasons, as things look better in the US vs. elsewhere in the world. And that is consequent...
by asif408
Thu Jul 27, 2017 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The argument for international funds?
Replies: 12
Views: 837

Re: The argument for international funds?

OP,

Here are two recent posts. They do not come to a consensus but you will get most of the pros and cons from these, as they are both several pages:

viewtopic.php?f=1&t=223804

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=224075&hilit=international
by asif408
Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time, not material goods, 'raises happiness'
Replies: 38
Views: 4249

Re: Time, not material goods, 'raises happiness'

jrbdmb wrote:Makes me wonder, what do pro golfers do when they retire? Join the rat race?
Play the Senior Tour or fish.
by asif408
Wed Jul 26, 2017 9:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International correlations hit 20 year low
Replies: 33
Views: 3086

Re: International correlations hit 20 year low

Bill Bernstein has a good section in his Intelligent Investor book addressing correlations. I've always kept his views in the back of my mind that correlations tend to be cyclical, and occur over 15-20 year periods. So many folks assume because correlations have been high for a 10 year period (say f...
by asif408
Sat Jul 22, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special
Replies: 106
Views: 8652

Re: Larry Swedroe: REITs Aren't Special

Some folks seem to feel reits are overvalued. One metric thrown out is their dividend yield compared to the total stock market. I'd be curious anout any others? Larry mentioned to me one time here in a post that he uses price to cash flow. At least by that metric, they looked pretty overvalued a ye...
by asif408
Fri Jul 21, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8679

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

And there are several absolutely direct tools to address inflation: TIPS, series I savings bonds, and inflation-indexed SPIAs. None of these makes much money for the investment industry, and, understandably, there is a long tradition of saying "if you are worried about inflation, then address it wi...
by asif408
Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8679

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Now we get to cue the perennial debate on whether the differences due to currency fluctuation, which is usually thought to be long-term-zero-return, are a) bad because they add extra risk, b) neutral because they balance out, or c) good because they provide useful diversification etc. I'll bite. Se...
by asif408
Thu Jul 20, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8679

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

I'll pose one more question/comment though. It has occurred to me that if all bogleheads really believed they should be truly diversified and invest in intl stock according to market weight, they would invest at 55/45 US/intl, but they don't. You are correct. From what I've seen in the constant pos...
by asif408
Thu Jul 20, 2017 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?
Replies: 162
Views: 8679

Re: Can anyone convince me I need international stock in my portfolio?

Now, I know past performance doesn't predict future performance, but why would we assume the opposite, that international stocks would overperform US stocks at any time the future. On what basis would we assume that? ? The basis is in the real world performance, as seen here: https://www.fidelity.c...
by asif408
Tue Jul 18, 2017 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expense Ratios, how high is too high
Replies: 72
Views: 4485

Re: Expense Ratios, how high is too high

The easiest way to figure it out if you're paying too much is to look at what is available from the cheapest providers, such as Vanguard, Schwab, Fidelity, etc. Generally speaking, for broad market index funds the cheapest providers charge between .01-.15, so to me if you're paying anywhere between ...
by asif408
Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The CAPEable Portfolio!
Replies: 30
Views: 2449

Re: The CAPEable Portfolio!

I was attempting to satisfy my intellectual curiosity. It seemed like a great idea, when it occurred to me.. it still seems interesting, and I would love to see if anyone has proposed anything similar or a backtest of how such a portfolio would have done compared to a 60/40. .. My guess when I post...
by asif408
Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The CAPEable Portfolio!
Replies: 30
Views: 2449

Re: The CAPEable Portfolio!

So OP, how do you account for investments outside the US (assuming you are not a US only investor)? Russia has a CAPE of 5 now, Brazil about 10, Turkey 11, Poland 12. US is around 28. Assuming you believe in CAPE, why not load up on those countries?
by asif408
Thu Jul 13, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International investing question
Replies: 17
Views: 1212

Re: International investing question

You can do some research using the search box for the pros and cons, as there are weekly posts here with the never ending debate on international stocks. Once you learn the pros and cons, you can then decide yourself if there are reasons to go higher or lower. I'm on the pro "more international" sid...
by asif408
Thu Jul 13, 2017 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: % bogleheads of overall population
Replies: 82
Views: 10674

Re: % bogleheads of overall population

A little basic math: About 62,000 Boglehead members, US population is about 320 million (world population about 7.5 billion), that equates to <0.1% of the population depending on the population you use in the denominator. Any way you look at it, Bogleheads are nowhere near a majority of the populati...
by asif408
Wed Jul 12, 2017 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Commodities ETFs
Replies: 35
Views: 1769

Re: New Commodities ETFs

Bill Bernstein and Larry had a good debate on here several years back that you can find by searching. The bottom line was Larry no longer recommended commodity funds at the time because of contango and the negative roll yield (not sure if he still has this viewpoint), and Bill was recommending if yo...
by asif408
Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey's advice on investing?
Replies: 57
Views: 4728

Re: Dave Ramsey's advice on investing?

To be honest, I've often wondered why intelligent/super wealthy people used brokers like Ed Jones, Lynch, etc. The only explanation I have is perhaps they are too busy with their professional lives to focus on investing. And so they don't realize they could be losing big chunks of money from their ...
by asif408
Tue Jul 11, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA administrator options
Replies: 11
Views: 737

Re: HSA administrator options

HSA Bank looks appealing. It states their are "Trading Fees" for the self directed option, but I was unable to find a full description of those fees on their fee schedule. What has your experience been? As long as you do the TDAmeritade option and sign up for the commission free ETF's, your only co...
by asif408
Tue Jul 11, 2017 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help explain reactions of Short and Intermediate Treasuries
Replies: 1
Views: 225

Re: Please help explain reactions of Short and Intermediate Treasuries

1. why the changes over time in the reactions of STT and ITT? (It looks like the investing public used to move to STT in bad times) 2. Are they interest rate based? Your answer to #1 is #2. The late 1970s and early 1980s were a period of high inflation. Short treasuries generally perform better tha...
by asif408
Sun Jul 09, 2017 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast
Replies: 54
Views: 7082

Re: William Bernstein on Meb Faber's podcast

I also, though, can't help but wonder how recent high equity returns have flavored this thread. Had it taken place in 2009, far fewer folks would have taken umbrage at holding a large amount of fixed income assets. Bill, I found the podcast very interesting, especially the part about bubbles. Have ...