Search found 1078 matches

by asif408
Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New HSA provider Lively offers investments for $30/yr fee
Replies: 139
Views: 13059

Re: New HSA provider Lively offers investments for $30/yr fee

I just did an in kind transfer from HSA Bank to Lively... Did this leave you with just the $25 HSA Bank closing fee then? I ended up with both a HSA Bank (individual) and an Optum (work) HSA, and this might be the ticket for combining the two into something simpler with lower fees than HSA Bank for...
by asif408
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Open a Roth but Vanguard minimum investment too high?
Replies: 19
Views: 992

Re: Open a Roth but Vanguard minimum investment too high?

You could also invest in one of Vanguard's target retirement funds. One word of caution though is Vanguard's target retirement funds invest in international bonds along with the 3 funds you listed. Since I'm new here....International bonds...we don't like those? I don't think most people here think...
by asif408
Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?
Replies: 19
Views: 1892

Re: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?

The oldest emerging markets fund I know of is MADCX, which used to be called Merill Lynch Developing Capital Markets, which started in late 1989. Here are its returns vs. the Vanguard S&P fund: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=MADCX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%2...
by asif408
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Shiller's Portfolio is Tilted Toward Europe and Emerging Markets
Replies: 19
Views: 2396

Re: Dr. Shiller's Portfolio is Tilted Toward Europe and Emerging Markets

I think one area some of us here give Jack Bogle a hard time about is his insistence on US only investing. Emerging markets valuations were much lower from the late 1990s to early 2000s by a significant amount compared to US and ex-US developed markets: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/content/dam...
by asif408
Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: When Popularity Kills
Replies: 14
Views: 1821

Re: Larry Swedroe: When Popularity Kills

Thanks for the link, Dave. I think anytime the big boys (e.g., hedge funds, institutions) jump on board a strategy that should reduce the premium for everyone. For instance, if a strategy has limited fund availability or cannot be easily implemented and, subsequently, has higher trading costs, it wi...
by asif408
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is International Stock Index Safer?
Replies: 14
Views: 955

Re: Is International Stock Index Safer?

Nick, You will have to define safety before we can help much. If "safe" means the value of the fund will not lose value in the next stock market downturn, no stock or mutual fund is guaranteed to be safe. Only cash, CDs, or I-bonds/TIPS would be "safe" in that situation. VFITX would be "safer" than ...
by asif408
Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TD Ameritrade user? Question regarding selling Free ETFs
Replies: 40
Views: 4178

Re: TD Ameritrade user? Question regarding selling Free ETFs

Can anyone confirm that DRIP purchases at TDA on currently held Vanguard ETFs going forward will indeed be commission-free once these ETF are no longer on the new commission-free list?? DRIP purchases are commission free, no matter whether you bought a commission free or non-commission free ETF. I ...
by asif408
Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 458
Views: 38190

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]

ChicagoSparty wrote:
Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:16 pm
Does anyone know if dividend reinvestment counts towards the 30 day window of not selling of Vanguard ETFs without paying the fee? I am leaning towards selling my Vangaurd Etfs (non taxable accounts) and buying the State Street ETFs.
They don't.
by asif408
Thu Oct 26, 2017 5:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How are various investments impacted by inflation?
Replies: 21
Views: 1547

Re: How sensitive are various instruments to inflation?

You forgot series I bonds, which are similar to TIPS but have some unique features: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds.htm There are also stocks of commodity producing companies (e.g., precious metals, energy/oil, etc.) which tend to do a better job than other st...
by asif408
Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 3767

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

As far as precious metals funds, I have taken a good hard look but didn't buy in because of their poor long term records. I see them more as portfolio insurance, I didn't want to pay the premium. Definitely agree they aren't necessary, but I find it funny when posts start to pop up about adding to ...
by asif408
Wed Oct 25, 2017 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Investors really underperform their investments
Replies: 45
Views: 3767

Re: Do Investors really underperform their investments

So let me provoke some further thinking. Do Bogleheads underperform their investments? Are we better at controlling our emotions than the average investor? Looking at the threads that pop up, I often wonder. For example, many Bogleheads have given up on TIPS and some are wondering if International ...
by asif408
Tue Oct 24, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 4148
Views: 1099870

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I wonder if the correction we all have been waiting to happen already happened in 2015 but much more smoother than we expected. That was one of them. There was also one in 2010 and one in 2011: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2009&firstMonth=3&endYe...
by asif408
Tue Oct 24, 2017 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?
Replies: 47
Views: 3799

Re: Has the general public ever been correct about market crashes?

Has the public ever been right about anything market timing related? Is "think the opposite of what everyone else thinks the market's headed" a viable strategy? When you say "public", I assume you mean the most popular views among investors (which would include pension fund managers, Wall Street ty...
by asif408
Mon Oct 23, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?
Replies: 31
Views: 2133

Re: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?

I'm a factor doubter, personally. I think factors are like anything else in investing, they can be chased, and once enough people are chasing them performance over simple old boring market cap will fall below 0 until there is a mass exodus, and the cycle will renew itself again. Low vol and high div...
by asif408
Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA question
Replies: 8
Views: 1026

Re: HSA question

My understanding is that you can use HSA funds you save while under the insurance even once you are no longer covered by the insurance later on. The only requirement limitation is that you can only open and fund an HSA while you have a HDHP. The eligibility for HSA expenses is determined by the IRS...
by asif408
Mon Oct 23, 2017 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are the new SSGA funds at TDA actually proper replacements?
Replies: 3
Views: 267

Re: Are the new SSGA funds at TDA actually proper replacements?

Note that there is no VXUS equivalent (SPDM doesn't hold emerging markets). You'll have to replicate with SPDW & SPEM. Why not just compare performance over the next few months. If they pretty much track each other over several months to a year it's probably a safe bet they will continue doing that....
by asif408
Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 458
Views: 38190

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]

is there a glaring reason NOT to expect the new funds to perform similarly to the corresponding vanguard ETFs? seems like if the funds are tracking the same things, then they should perform similarly in the long run. You can actually compare the composition of the SPDR funds to Vanguard's if you ar...
by asif408
Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA question
Replies: 8
Views: 1026

Re: HSA question

My understanding is that you can use HSA funds you save while under the insurance even once you are no longer covered by the insurance later on. The only requirement limitation is that you can only open and fund an HSA while you have a HDHP. The eligibility for HSA expenses is determined by the IRS ...
by asif408
Thu Oct 19, 2017 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overselling of international diversification
Replies: 56
Views: 4987

Re: The overselling of international diversification

Several years ago this board was predominantly in support of a global cap-weighted portfolio (after some really good years for international) with many posters strongly advocating that global cap weighting is the only way to go. Now it's almost a 180 here as far as vocal support for a US only equit...
by asif408
Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]
Replies: 458
Views: 38190

Re: Fellow TDA bogleheads [TDA dropping Vanguard ETFs from commission-free list]

Amazingly, four of the new "commission free" funds have ER's over 6% (and 2 over 10%)!: https://research.tdameritrade.com/grid/public/etfs/commissionfree/commissionfree.asp I can't see a large number of these funds being economically viable and appear doomed to be closed. Td is going to have to sta...
by asif408
Wed Oct 18, 2017 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When everything goes up, what goes down & vice versa
Replies: 28
Views: 3187

Re: When everything goes up, what goes down & vice versa

Energy stocks fell over 20% between December 2016 and August of 2017: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf/chart.action?t=SPY®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSettingId%22%3A%22na...
by asif408
Tue Oct 17, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do International Funds provide significant US exposure?
Replies: 5
Views: 988

Re: Do International Funds provide significant US exposure?

With that thinking in mind my question is do International Funds (eg. VGTSX) with holdings in ex-US based multinational companies already provide similarly significant exposure to US markets (Nestle SA, Samsung, etc.)? I'm not sure of the answer, but it doesn't appear the returns of S&P or EAFE are...
by asif408
Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon, sometime, maybe later
Replies: 68
Views: 7167

Re: Vanguard expects "decent sized correction" soon

Breaking news: There is clickbait on MarketWatch everyday! Here's a year by year sample of headlines for your reading pleasure: 2010: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crash-of-2008-winner-says-bear-market-is-back-2010-01-21 2011: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-no-growth-boom-will-follow-2012-glo...
by asif408
Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2546

Re: Currency risk?

Fourth, I question the motives of those believing in a 0% international allocation (or 5% or 10%). While many are simply ignorant, and others cite reasons such as currency risk for their home country bias, for a few, is their bias ultimately... bias, a behavioral error? Are some inherently biased a...
by asif408
Mon Oct 16, 2017 3:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: State Street Debuts Low Cost ETFs [mostly rebranding old ones and cutting ERs]
Replies: 2
Views: 378

Re: State Street Debuts Low Cost ETFs [mostly rebranding old ones and cutting ERs]

The core funds looks good to me. As long as they track their indexes reasonably well I'll consider them for my TDAmeritrade account to replace the Vanguard funds I previously used. The EM & Developed Ex-US core funds are about 3 bps cheaper than Vanguard's, which is pretty impressive. Foreign invest...
by asif408
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2546

Re: Currency risk?

Generally investing in currencies is held to be zero sum. You get increased volatility, for no extra return. Do you have any idea why that is the case? Just looking at some historical performance, it appears to be very time dependent. I would agree that if you averaged in on many investors over ver...
by asif408
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2546

Re: Currency risk?

Generally investing in currencies is held to be zero sum. You get increased volatility, for no extra return. Do you have any idea why that is the case? Just looking at some historical performance, it appears to be very time dependent. I would agree that if you averaged in on many investors over ver...
by asif408
Mon Oct 16, 2017 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2546

Re: Currency risk?

...I just don't see any evidence that currency risk is a one way street... Nobody ever said that it was. That is a straw man argument. Nisi, thanks for your input. You always provide a lot to chew on. The reason I say this is that although it is not specifically stated, at least in my logic, an inv...
by asif408
Mon Oct 16, 2017 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2546

Currency risk?

Can someone explain why currency risk is used to justify a lower allocation to foreign investments by US investors? And is this justification common among non-US investors for underweighting US equities? For instance, do Chinese, European, Japanese, or Brazilian investors overweight their home count...
by asif408
Fri Oct 13, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7358

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I'll never understand this kind of argument. You don't use that logic for individual stocks or sectors, so why countries? We don't say 'well healthcare has done well and utilities poorly over the last 50 or 100 years so you should tilt toward one over the other.' Makes no sense for a passive invest...
by asif408
Thu Oct 12, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7358

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Ex-US indexing hasn't worked well in the past - under-performance over long periods of time as mentioned above in this thread. It's possible to argue about the reasons and whether the next century will be like the last century, but the reality so far is what it is, and it's a huge red flag. So shou...
by asif408
Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7358

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

If you went back to 2007 or even early 2008, I saw articles saying that International Stocks were the "must have" asset class because their long term performance was better than U.S. with limited correlation. A great diversifier. That shows what eight years of underperformance relative to US can do...
by asif408
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard bond ETF/funds
Replies: 21
Views: 1276

Re: Vanguard bond ETF/funds

wstalcup wrote:
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:51 pm
good point about world stocks.. I only have US stocks.. so maybe a world stock index and some sort of bond fund!
Seems like a good place to start. Vanguard does have a total world fund, I'm guessing other companies may have something similar.
by asif408
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7358

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I market weight so am already 50/50 and will stay the course. Int'l exposure helps me weather all this angst about US valuations. Cheers to diversification :sharebeer Not sure about that... Historically, when the markets in the US catch a cold, international markets catch pneumonia... The US did wo...
by asif408
Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard bond ETF/funds
Replies: 21
Views: 1276

Re: Vanguard bond ETF/funds

I live in Florida, and I guess not really looking to need the money until about 20 years from now. marginal rate for income is around 18%. Money would be in rollover IRAs and also taxable accounts. Currently all my investments are in Stocks and stock ETFs, so looking to move some to bonds since rid...
by asif408
Mon Oct 09, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oldest international mutual funds?
Replies: 16
Views: 1174

Re: Oldest international mutual funds?

Vanguard has a couple of actively managed international funds that started in the early 80s: Vanguard International Growth Fund VWIGX (started in 1981) Vanguard International Value Fund VTRIX (started in 1983) I also did some research on emerging markets funds and the oldest ones I could find were: ...
by asif408
Wed Oct 04, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: First time home buyer - gut check
Replies: 26
Views: 2282

Re: First time home buyer - gut check

One thing you didn't mention that I think is a big factor is how long you plan to be in Atlanta, since you are both fairly young. I would continue to rent unless you see yourself staying in Atlanta for at least 5-10 years (or more). You won't build much equity if you're there for just a few years, a...
by asif408
Wed Oct 04, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE As A Risk Management Tool
Replies: 7
Views: 750

Re: CAPE As A Risk Management Tool

My takeaway about CAPE has been that it is useful along with some of the other valuation predictors (e.g., P/B) as a blunt tool to use for determine where to allocate to stocks for intermediate term horizons. I don't think it has much use for going back and forth between stocks and bonds as a lot of...
by asif408
Tue Oct 03, 2017 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Chickened out... Now unsure where to start.
Replies: 33
Views: 3794

Re: Chickened out... Now unsure where to start.

OP, I'll preface by saying that I don't have as much in assets as you do, but I do have a much higher risk tolerance. I started out more conservative and have gotten more aggressive over time, and my suggestion to anyone in your shoes would be to do the same. Going to 100% cash is an extreme move an...
by asif408
Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wm. Bernstein's Latest Portfolio?
Replies: 4
Views: 1222

Re: Wm. Bernstein's Latest Portfolio?

Dandy described his fixed income views very well above. I'll add comments on the stock portion. I don't think his recommendations have changed much over time, other than over the last few years he had suggested tilting your equity portion to foreign developed and emerging market stocks because of mo...
by asif408
Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 4816

Re: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

I agree with you that trying to live by the CAPE is not what we do at Bogleheads. But unless you disagree that valuations matter, there is a fundamental problem with US stocks, valuations are just too high relative to history and if history is a reference, it is not a matter of if, but when a signi...
by asif408
Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 4816

Re: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

Vanguard's study looked at all factors, including PE10, as predictors of future market action and determined that none have greater than 40% accuracy. PE 10 and PE 1 are the best we have, but their accuracy ceiling is limited to 40%. IMO that degree of potential error is way too great to make such ...
by asif408
Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 4816

Re: Research Associates Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

Your comments about the dollar and oil prices reminds me of the Steve Forbes thesis that a strong dollar equals low oil prices and a weak dollar means high oil prices. This is generally true but you noticed a rather recent exception to the Forbes rule on oil prices. This is why I use the word "tend...
by asif408
Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 4816

Re: Research Associates Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

Great comment. Interest rates are a factor in valuations but of course there are other drivers. That is why I use the word "tend". As far as Europe, there was a big issue with the Euro, sort of a north/south and richer/poorer country dynamic. Worries about countries like Portugal, Italy, Ireland, G...
by asif408
Tue Sep 26, 2017 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 4816

Re: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

Another thing, I wonder if the P/E 10 will drop after we get past the 10 year anniversary of the 2008-2009 financial crisis and bear market. Trailing P/E's for the US Market got up to about 27 or 28 before everything crashed in the fall of 2008. It appears it will, though not dramatically: https://...
by asif408
Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliated Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks
Replies: 46
Views: 4816

Re: Research Associates Model Portfolios: ZERO % US stocks

Interest rates are a big factor, P/E ratios tend to be high when interest rates are low and tend to be low when interest rates are high. Hi nedsaid, Does this also apply to developed ex-US stocks? The interest rates in those countries are on average lower than in the US, yet their CAPE ratios are a...
by asif408
Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalancing into U.S.Stocks
Replies: 31
Views: 2818

Re: Rebalancing into U.S.Stocks

I agree it seems like a bad time to be shifting away from foreign stocks. That is why I do not rush to rebalance, let the winners ride a few years before rebalancing, especially considering that EM lagged for a good 5-6 years. EM has only been outperforming US since late January 2016 (about 1 1/2 ye...
by asif408
Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF
Replies: 95
Views: 5421

Re: Vanguard: Please Offer a Gold ETF

How is .66 = .5? Meanwhile gold had a 0.04 correlation. No commodity is quite like gold, because the others have uses often related more to the economy, while gold is the only commodity that's ever been used as store of value in a big way and the supply/demand issues relating to production and use ...