Search found 1121 matches

by asif408
Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier and negative premiums.
Replies: 4
Views: 568

Re: Efficient frontier and negative premiums.

Thank you for your responses. Been looking for the post with the negative premiums still being a good diversified and can’t find it... that nagging feeling of something at the “tip of one’s tongue!” I seem to remember in his Intelligent Investor book that he mentioned that the negative premium for ...
by asif408
Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lets talk about some favorite index funds?
Replies: 32
Views: 1590

Re: Lets talk about some favorite index funds?

I like any low-cost total US, total developed ex-US, total EM, or total international index funds. I like them because they are broadly diversified, cheap, and have low turnover. If you own 2 or 3 or these funds you pretty much own every public, easily investable market in the world. Lately the inte...
by asif408
Thu Jan 18, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 0% growth on stocks for the next decade?
Replies: 16
Views: 1911

Re: 0% growth on stocks for the next decade?

You're confusing long-term forecast with short-term performance by judging a 10 year forecast based on 1 year of performance. Stocks market returns are not normally distributed. We could have several more years of 20-30% returns and then a big crash, or we could have many years of choppy performance...
by asif408
Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient frontier and negative premiums.
Replies: 4
Views: 568

Re: Efficient frontier and negative premiums.

I don't remember the article, but it may be true. He used a similar argument to justify the inclusion of precious metals equities in a portfolio, which I think you can google up from his efficient frontier website back in the late 1990s. The gist was that PME is a terrible investment alone most of t...
by asif408
Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it reasonable to try to time the I-Bond market?
Replies: 13
Views: 1206

Re: Is it reasonable to try to time the I-Bond market?

I see nothing wrong with trying to time the I-bond market, but it's unlikely to make a huge difference over the long haul. In theory, financial institutions will raise their interest rates as rates increase. If this happened very quickly I don't know how quickly banks would raise rates on savings ac...
by asif408
Tue Jan 16, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Windfall (no country bias) [Non-US]
Replies: 22
Views: 1579

Re: Investing Windfall (no country bias)

From a cost and management perspective, it would probably be easiest just to own a big chunk of an emerging markets index fund along with some of a developed ex-US (like EAFE) index fund, then buy an EM value fund and an EAFE value fund which would essentially tilt you towards those countries. That ...
by asif408
Fri Jan 12, 2018 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Vanguard Funds at TD Ameritrade
Replies: 11
Views: 1185

Re: Buying Vanguard Funds at TD Ameritrade

Thanks for the response, Do you think that concerns about higher bid/ask spreads and lower liquidity for the SPDR funds are a big negative? What about the fact that the SPDR ETFs have much fewer holdings than the Vanguard equivalents? Lastly, I noticed that the SPDR ETFs’ performance differs a mode...
by asif408
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting your spouse on the same page
Replies: 53
Views: 4981

Re: Getting your spouse on the same page

For someone not interested (like my wife), if you can automate and keep it simple I have found that works best. I convinced my wife to open a Roth IRA and make an automatic monthly contribution into a single fund (like a Target Retirement fund) from her bank. She has been doing that (and has probabl...
by asif408
Fri Jan 12, 2018 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?
Replies: 35
Views: 2446

Re: Skating where the puck was; e.g., commodities. Factors next?

I think so. If anything, I'd say commodities now are pretty unloved and out of favor (though maybe not quite as much as a few years ago), while factor investing is certainly all the rage. It is interesting to note that commodities correlations with equities has fallen quite a bit in the past few yea...
by asif408
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Adm)??
Replies: 70
Views: 5473

Re: 100% VTSAX (Vanguard Total Stock Mkt Idx Adm)??

I'm actually the opposite, I own almost nothing (less than 15%) in the US stock market. I do own every other investable stock market in the world, though.
by asif408
Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 222
Views: 24746

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

The thing is, I don't honestly know my risk tolerance right now. Age 58, spotty employment, getting closer to winning the game. New factors in my risk profile that I haven't experienced before. Thus you can hear the voice of caution in my more recent posts. I have never been a near retiree before. ...
by asif408
Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Individual investors, possible structural advantages
Replies: 10
Views: 707

Re: Individual investors, possible structural advantages

Another structural advantage is no boss or management looking over your shoulder who will fire you if you underperform over a year or two, like many institutions might. So if you have a long-term strategy than may take 5 or 10 years to pay off you are more likely to be able to implement successfully...
by asif408
Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?
Replies: 37
Views: 1996

Re: How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?

AFAIK, it's not common for most Bogleheads to own single country stocks. Like the not so few only have US stocks and defend that because Bogle and Buffett deem that acceptable? Reasonig that the past performance doesn't look to bad for US stocks? Past performance, future perfomance? Sometimes, I re...
by asif408
Thu Jan 11, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 222
Views: 24746

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

When you are 35 you have relatively long time horizons coupled with relatively small portfolios compared to older investors like me at age 58. In theory, your pain from loss ought to be a lot less than mine since the dollar amounts of loss for you will be a lot smaller than for me. In fact, it does...
by asif408
Wed Jan 10, 2018 10:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?
Replies: 37
Views: 1996

Re: How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?

AFAIK, it's not common for most Bogleheads to own single country stocks. An even those of us, such as myself, who do hold them don't hold large amounts. I have a slight tilt towards certain countries based on valuations, but the overwhelming majority of my portfolio is in the most boring total marke...
by asif408
Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Replies: 119
Views: 9641

Re: CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong

The US Stock Market was essentially flat from early 2000 until maybe 2012. It appears 2013 was the time the market broke out. Before that, from the early 2000 peak two 50% down markets and two recoveries that brought you have to even over a 12 year period. Valuations really do matter. And just to i...
by asif408
Mon Jan 08, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Smallest % worth Allocating in your Portfolio
Replies: 30
Views: 1985

Re: Smallest % worth Allocating in your Portfolio

I think for most here that follow a general 3 or 4 fund type portfolio, the slicing and dicing is not worth it. But it depends on the volatility of the investments as well. If I owned individual stocks, gold mining stocks, or the Russian stock market (all by most measures extremely volatile), I woul...
by asif408
Mon Jan 08, 2018 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: This is clearest picture of why diversifying is priority!
Replies: 29
Views: 5487

Re: This is clearest picture of why diversifying is priority!

Looks to me like emerging markets, energy and, precious metals in particular, have been terrible investments most of the last 7 years except for 1 or 2 years here and there. I'd probably sell all my emerging markets, energy, and precious metals stocks based on this table. Or maybe if I believe in me...
by asif408
Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?
Replies: 50
Views: 3295

Re: As a German: Should I go 100% US stocks?

I would invest where the best opportunities are, irrespective of where I live. You are correct that currency should be a wash over the long haul. Currency can be a risk, but it also can be a reward when the currency goes with you. If I was German (or European), I surely wouldn't take the advice of s...
by asif408
Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only asset class offering a discount
Replies: 8
Views: 902

Re: The only asset class offering a discount

There are several asset classes that are still off 10 year highs, and REITs are not one of them. Really?, kindly name such asset classes......remember that: Only the developed ex-US markets, emerging markets, commodities, energy, etc. So just nearly every other stock market in the world other than ...
by asif408
Fri Jan 05, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The only asset class offering a discount
Replies: 8
Views: 902

Re: The only asset class offering a discount

Given that everything is making multiyear highs, it's refreshing to see an asset class offering a discount. REITs are 6% off the 52wk highs as of now. I wouldn't consider 1 year significant. There are several asset classes that are still off 10 year highs, and REITs are not one of them. REITs are o...
by asif408
Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 222
Views: 24746

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Da5id wrote:
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:08 pm
I agree CAPE isn't awesome, but really, banning mention of it?!?
Zealotry and fervor are not limited to sports and religion, it includes Bogleheads as well.
by asif408
Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 222
Views: 24746

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Always enjoy your posts, nedsaid. I'm closer to 35 than 58, and from 2013-2016, I gradually upped by foreign stock allocation, and it felt like I was throwing money into the toilet buying more foreign stocks in 2014 and 2015, so I've had a bit of the opposite experience you had. Finally, in 2016, I ...
by asif408
Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rationale for a 30% ex-US equity allocation
Replies: 24
Views: 1949

Re: Rationale for a 30% ex-US equity allocation

So, then the question is am I missing the forest for the trees? Yes, I think so. You mention in your analysis that 30% vs. 40% won't make much difference for the reasons you've chosen. I don't see anything wrong with taking time to do analysis and think it through, but at some point you have to mak...
by asif408
Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to average 7% in $1M+ 401K for next 10 years
Replies: 29
Views: 2687

Re: Best way to average 7% in $1M+ 401K for next 10 years

If you are a believer in valuations being predictive of market returns over 10 years (which from the data I have seen appears to be moderately predictive) you would move a big chunk of you stock allocation into emerging and foreign developed markets and own very little (if any) in US stocks. See the...
by asif408
Wed Dec 27, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it me or does everything seem expensive?
Replies: 47
Views: 5260

Re: Is it me or does everything seem expensive?

It's just you. A number of countries around the world (think Eastern Europe and parts of Western Europe, Brazil, etc) all had multi year bear markets from 2011 until early 2016. They are all good stock market bargains right now for a longer term investor. Now some of these markets (e.g., Russia) cou...
by asif408
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Energy sector time to turn around?
Replies: 45
Views: 3915

Re: Energy sector time to turn around?

I have no idea what the future holds, but I've owned an energy fund since last year. I'm a believer in reversion to the mean, and I tilt to sectors of markets and whole markets that have the poorest previous 5 and 10 year records. Energy is down at the bottom of that 5-10 year list along with emergi...
by asif408
Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Only buying stocks during a recession/downturn
Replies: 14
Views: 1683

Re: Only buying stocks during a recession/downturn

This is not exactly what you are asking for, but very similar: http://mebfaber.com/2016/12/02/missed-780-gains-using-cape-ratio-thats-good-thing/. Meb's books also go into more detail. He uses valuation metrics like CAPE, but you don't need valuation metrics to see that most of the countries with th...
by asif408
Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best HSA for buy-&-hold?
Replies: 15
Views: 1482

Re: Best HSA for buy-&-hold?

I was with HSA Bank but transferred to Lively recently. Did HSA Bank charge you a fee to transfer and close the account? To close the account they did. Since I had only a few dollars below the closure fee left in my account, they didn't charge me the full closure fee but used the remaining balance ...
by asif408
Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Best HSA for buy-&-hold?
Replies: 15
Views: 1482

Re: Best HSA for buy-&-hold?

I was with HSA Bank but transferred to Lively recently. If you're not concerned about the fact that Lively is very new to the HSA world, then they are the best deal ($30/year deducted from an outside bank account, no other fees other than expense ratios of funds if you stick to the commission free l...
by asif408
Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ROTH IRA Holders: How Many Of You Max Your Contribution On January 1st?
Replies: 41
Views: 3082

Re: ROTH IRA Holders: How Many Of You Max Your Contribution On January 1st?

I've done it in the past, and would if I still could. I think it's a great strategy if you have the means to do it. I haven't done it in the last year or so just because I can't do it financially, but I do put in money for it as soon as it's available.
by asif408
Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting sectors, regions and countries? Which ones.
Replies: 14
Views: 948

Re: Tilting sectors, regions and countries? Which ones.

As far as regions and countries, I overweight emerging and developed ex-US markets, and among individual countries I overweight the PIGS and Eastern Europe. For sectors, just an overweight to energy and precious metals equities (which is really a sub-sector of materials), as I don't see enough diff...
by asif408
Wed Dec 13, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tilting sectors, regions and countries? Which ones.
Replies: 14
Views: 948

Re: Tilting sectors, regions and countries? Which ones.

As far as regions and countries, I overweight emerging and developed ex-US markets, and among individual countries I overweight the PIGS and Eastern Europe. For sectors, just an overweight to energy and precious metals equities (which is really a sub-sector of materials), as I don't see enough diffe...
by asif408
Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When to invest in a bull market
Replies: 17
Views: 2201

Re: When to invest in a bull market

My preference is to invest at the beginning of the bull market and get out just before it ends. Unfortunately, I've had some issues with timing. Namely, getting in and out at the correct times.
by asif408
Mon Dec 11, 2017 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 3016

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

For that 10year time period that includes the 2008/2009 crash the combination of 80% growth oriented US Stocks/ 20% bonds produced about the same CAGR as the S&P500 Index. Interestingly, the S&P500 Index would take until 2017 to surpass that portfolio while it also suffered quite a bit less during ...
by asif408
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So... how do I need to "further" my investing knowledge?
Replies: 15
Views: 1585

Re: So... how do I need to "further" my investing knowledge?

I'd probably brush up on financial history and investor behavior. They probably won't change anything you do currently, but IMO it's a good idea to understand what has happened in the past and how people behaved in the past to give some insights into what you might be able to expect in the future. W...
by asif408
Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's International Growth / Value / Explorer funds
Replies: 4
Views: 728

Re: Vanguard's International Growth / Value / Explorer funds

I think you might have been looking recently at YTD returns of Vanguard funds, because 2 of the 3 funds you mentioned are the best performers of the year among Vanguard funds. They aren't necessarily bad funds, I just hope you aren't chasing the most recent winners.
by asif408
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 3265

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

Huh, it's almost like a record high CAPE actually did predict something... CAPE doesn't have to be at record highs for its proponents to predict bad returns, I mean here is Shiller from the summer of 1996: "Today, with a ratio of 29.72, well above average though not at record levels. The fitted val...
by asif408
Mon Dec 04, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I'm 100% international with VEU. Is this wise?
Replies: 57
Views: 3367

Re: I'm 100% international with VEU. Is this wise?

I find it real funny that folks think it is perfectly OK to have 100% of your stocks in US equities but accuse someone who is 100% international of being a gambler. US stocks haven't been this expensive since 1999/2000.. Look how that turned out. How it turned out is that US stocks outperformed non...
by asif408
Fri Dec 01, 2017 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?
Replies: 134
Views: 10081

Re: Which crash have you seen it before it is coming?

I can't say I saw the 2007-2009 market crash, but the bubbliciousness that preceded it was overwhelming. I remember one guy who changed jobs every year was suddenly trying to flip homes and telling me how much money he was making. Then I remember family members pressuring me to purchase a home, beca...
by asif408
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 100% U.S stocks to 30% international?
Replies: 36
Views: 3236

Re: Going from 100% U.S stocks to 30% international?

I have almost the opposite holdings as you (I'm 90% international, 10% US), so I have a fairly extreme portfolio as you do. Wow! Just wanted to say congrats on really going all in on INT. That's the most extreme INT holding I've seen. Can you share why you are 90% INT? Expected returns? Mainly expe...
by asif408
Thu Nov 30, 2017 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Going from 100% U.S stocks to 30% international?
Replies: 36
Views: 3236

Re: Going from 100% U.S stocks to 30% international?

I have the opposite problem. When I constructed my IPS and portfolio about 10 years ago, I was heavily influenced by David Swensen and held 15% of Developed International + 5% Emerging over the last decade. Returns have been poor until this year. In the mean time I’ve travelled extensively for work...
by asif408
Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New HSA provider Lively offers investments for $30/yr fee
Replies: 158
Views: 19785

Re: New HSA provider Lively offers investments for $30/yr fee

I just did an in kind transfer from HSA Bank to Lively... Did this leave you with just the $25 HSA Bank closing fee then? I ended up with both a HSA Bank (individual) and an Optum (work) HSA, and this might be the ticket for combining the two into something simpler with lower fees than HSA Bank for...
by asif408
Wed Nov 08, 2017 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Open a Roth but Vanguard minimum investment too high?
Replies: 19
Views: 1213

Re: Open a Roth but Vanguard minimum investment too high?

You could also invest in one of Vanguard's target retirement funds. One word of caution though is Vanguard's target retirement funds invest in international bonds along with the 3 funds you listed. Since I'm new here....International bonds...we don't like those? I don't think most people here think...
by asif408
Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?
Replies: 19
Views: 2071

Re: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?

The oldest emerging markets fund I know of is MADCX, which used to be called Merill Lynch Developing Capital Markets, which started in late 1989. Here are its returns vs. the Vanguard S&P fund: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=MADCX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%2...
by asif408
Mon Nov 06, 2017 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Shiller's Portfolio is Tilted Toward Europe and Emerging Markets
Replies: 19
Views: 2568

Re: Dr. Shiller's Portfolio is Tilted Toward Europe and Emerging Markets

I think one area some of us here give Jack Bogle a hard time about is his insistence on US only investing. Emerging markets valuations were much lower from the late 1990s to early 2000s by a significant amount compared to US and ex-US developed markets: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/content/dam...
by asif408
Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: When Popularity Kills
Replies: 14
Views: 1975

Re: Larry Swedroe: When Popularity Kills

Thanks for the link, Dave. I think anytime the big boys (e.g., hedge funds, institutions) jump on board a strategy that should reduce the premium for everyone. For instance, if a strategy has limited fund availability or cannot be easily implemented and, subsequently, has higher trading costs, it wi...
by asif408
Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is International Stock Index Safer?
Replies: 14
Views: 1186

Re: Is International Stock Index Safer?

Nick, You will have to define safety before we can help much. If "safe" means the value of the fund will not lose value in the next stock market downturn, no stock or mutual fund is guaranteed to be safe. Only cash, CDs, or I-bonds/TIPS would be "safe" in that situation. VFITX would be "safer" than ...