Search found 1250 matches

by asif408
Sun May 27, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 40
Views: 2586

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

OP, I've been around here long enough to see that although there are plenty of smart people here, those smart people are also human, and capable of Olympic level mental gymnastics to justify their reasonings. So I don't think you will ever get any sort of capitulation from them regarding internation...
by asif408
Thu May 24, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 33
Views: 1583

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

Well, I want both non-correlation and returns. Precious metals equity funds have pretty disappointing long term performance records. I agree, nedsaid. Just curious what you think about the last 10 years of PME performance vs. the S&P: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timeP...
by asif408
Thu May 24, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 33
Views: 1583

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

perhaps a long term holder of the VGPMX will chime in. This is not a "precious metals" fund in the sense some are taking it. I don't recall when there was a change, but the fund changed at some point. There was a portfolio manager before the current one who diversified the fund a bit to miners of n...
by asif408
Thu May 24, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 33
Views: 1583

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

The big benefit from PME was 2001 and 2002, when it had positive returns when most everything else was down the toilet That’s why it could be a better diversifier. I don’t know of a time when EM was doing well while all other growth assets were down the toilet. Could be. Other areas of the market w...
by asif408
Thu May 24, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 33
Views: 1583

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

Interestingly, when I change the start date to 2007, the porfolio with PME becomes the worst and the EM portfolio becomes the best. The big benefit from PME was 2001 and 2002, when it had positive returns when most everything else was down the toilet. So I will say that at times, PME could be a bett...
by asif408
Tue May 22, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?
Replies: 25
Views: 2785

Re: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?

we have to take into account that this period starts in 2000, the year the tech bubble which was largely LCG burst. Weightings in that LCG segment were huge in TSM which suffered greatly in 2000 - 2003, while LCG was non-existent in DFLVX. If instead we choose the last 10 years to compare the two, ...
by asif408
Sun May 20, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International -- VXUS or slice and dice?
Replies: 14
Views: 1303

Re: International -- VXUS or slice and dice?

OP, You have approximately 20% of your total portfolio in international. I have over 85% of my total portfolio in international, and I only own 3 funds: A total international fund, an emerging market index fund, and a EM value index fund. I think your plan is overkill, particularly for the small amo...
by asif408
Wed May 09, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rationale for placing high expected return funds in Roth rather than tIRA
Replies: 15
Views: 1126

Re: Rationale for placing high expected return funds in Roth rather than tIRA

Thanks, both. But @larryswedroe, let's take the simplified example where someone has equal after-tax amounts in a tIRA and a Roth. Assuming a marginal tax rate of 37%, let's say the investor has $1,000 in the Roth and $1,587 in the tIRA [$1,587 = 1,000 / (1 - 37%)]. Let's also make the (overly) sim...
by asif408
Mon May 07, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 67
Views: 9047

Re: Unprecedented Event

Sure, I think an unprecedented event could happen. I took Dr. Bernstein's advice from his book to add some protection against 2 of the deep risks. His belief is that inflation is the greatest risk but also has the most ways to protect yourself. From an inflation protection perspective, I have intern...
by asif408
Sat May 05, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are International holdings sensible here?
Replies: 7
Views: 684

Re: Are International holdings sensible here?

OP, Did you know Int'l outperformed US for a 9 year period from 2002-2011? See here: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VTSMX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettin...
by asif408
Fri May 04, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower expected stock returns means lower expected volatility?
Replies: 28
Views: 2068

Re: Lower expected stock returns means lower expected volatility?

I believe you are correct, though I am no expert, so take my 2 cents for what it's worth. Probably the easiest way to lower expected returns is through increased volatility. As you may already be aware, two funds can have the same arithmetic average return but 1 has a lower geometric average return ...
by asif408
Fri May 04, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using P/E as a Metric
Replies: 13
Views: 1027

Re: Using P/E as a Metric

I will point out a contradiction. As you say, future estimates have not happened yet. Or, more to the point, the future has not happened yet, so we must predict. And yet you tote the power of trailing estimates to predict the future that has not happened yet. So that argument must equally apply to ...
by asif408
Fri May 04, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Emerging Market Flaws
Replies: 5
Views: 1008

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Emerging Market Flaws

I was wondering whether the FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Index is a valid value index and if so how it compares with the value strategy used by DFA. I am asking because retail investors can buy a Powershares ETF tracking that index; whereas for DFA one needs an advisor; moreover, for me in Europe the...
by asif408
Thu May 03, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using P/E as a Metric
Replies: 13
Views: 1027

Re: Using P/E as a Metric

It might be more intuitive not to use the P/E ratio but the E/P ratio, or "Earnings Yield". Forward PE is pretty useless IMO but commonly cited, trailing PE is a bit better, and CAPE is a bit better than trailing PE. Mainly trailing PE and CAPE are somewhat useful as medium to long term valuation t...
by asif408
Wed May 02, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using P/E as a Metric
Replies: 13
Views: 1027

Re: Using P/E as a Metric

Which one: forward PE, trailing PE, cyclically adjusted PE, or another? Forward PE is pretty useless IMO but commonly cited, trailing PE is a bit better, and CAPE is a bit better than trailing PE. Mainly trailing PE and CAPE are somewhat useful as medium to long term valuation tools to estimate futu...
by asif408
Wed May 02, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio peepers: what do you do?
Replies: 48
Views: 3926

Re: Portfolio peepers: what do you do?

I've been using it to train myself to buy when something is lagging. For example, one fund was down 20% a year ago from a recent peak while the rest of my funds were up over that same time frame, so I bought some more of the one that was down. It's never a good feeling, but I know it is generally th...
by asif408
Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oldest mutual funds by category
Replies: 8
Views: 731

Re: Oldest mutual funds by category

Spirit Rider wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:50 pm
Just go to various fun supermarkets, sort by inception date and filter by asset allocation.
Great idea, thanks.
by asif408
Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oldest mutual funds by category
Replies: 8
Views: 731

Re: Oldest mutual funds by category

DaftInvestor wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:43 pm
Sorry I don't have an answer but I am very curious:
Why?
Doing some research and haven't had any luck finding that information in one place.
by asif408
Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oldest mutual funds by category
Replies: 8
Views: 731

Oldest mutual funds by category

Curious if anyone can recommend a good website or place to find the oldest mutual funds still in existence by specific category (if such a place exists). For example, if I want to find the oldest developed markets ex-US fund, precious metals fund, emerging markets value fund, etc. I've done some res...
by asif408
Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for investing in HSA
Replies: 13
Views: 1052

Re: Strategy for investing in HSA

I use my HSA as a hybrid, so to pay for medical expenses, I keep at least the deductible in cash or short-term bond funds. If you have money outside of the HSA you can use to cover this then in theory you don't have to keep the deductible amount safe. If you want to be more conservative keep 1 year ...
by asif408
Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Bonds now or wait until May?
Replies: 10
Views: 757

Re: I Bonds now or wait until May?

I've had similar trouble searching for the word I bond, maybe someone can offer a suggestion on how to search for I-bonds. The last post I saw determined that the 6 month rate will drop in May from 2.6% or so to 2.2% or so IIRC. Those are ballpark estimates so don't quote me, but I'm sure someone ca...
by asif408
Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5996

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

Regarding the low CAPE strategy: You saved 0.12% in expense ratio vs. GVAL. However, have you considered this: When it comes time to rebalance within your strategy as country valuations change, you will incur capital gains tax if your account is taxable, on the whole appreciation of the countries t...
by asif408
Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 20056

Re: Why International again?

The debate centers around whether international is necessary rather than whether it is a poor investment. It provides further diversification, but it does require additional analysis in order to incorporate another fund in one's portfolio. Occam's Razor supports adopting the simplest explanation th...
by asif408
Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5996

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

The answer is always the same: What do you know that the market does not know? Victoria I think its a legitimate strategy, the question is are you willing to hold it long enough to benefit and would you be ok if "expected" is not "realized"? I personally do tilt using a low CAPE strategy, which inc...
by asif408
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1811

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

.... over the 1982-2018 period) had average monthly CAPEs of between 17.6 and 23.8 That's higher than the longer term average in the US, around 16. My suspicion is that these averages since 1982 are distorted by elevated CAPE over the last 2 decades, especially around the last years of the 90s, and...
by asif408
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1811

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

This simple method has some benefits, for example it avoids making judgements for each country. But clearly it has some problems. For example, each historical country mean may have a different length of history. Global CAPE has probably been elevated for the last 20 years, much like it has in the U...
by asif408
Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1811

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

I agree with AlohaJoe, and I think that is why you have to look at CAPE relative to its own market. I think using direct comparisons of CAPE country by country without knowledge of the typical CAPE ranges and averages is probably a flawed method. One way to compare CAPE ratios is by using relative r...
by asif408
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1458

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

One more thought. I have seen articles which suggest that CAPE has a 40% predictive power. Which, for such a simple model, is pretty impressive. On the other hand, that leaves 60% unaccounted for, a hole large enough to drive a big truck through. As such, if one country has a CAPE of 30 and another...
by asif408
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1458

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

Thank you for your feedback. This is an interesting point, though I am not sure whether high correlations between markets necessarily imply that there won't be differences in relative performance due to CAPE. For example, even if you have two markets which are 100% correlated, so that they go up at...
by asif408
Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets tilt
Replies: 37
Views: 3251

Re: Emerging markets tilt

I've been about 60% EM since late 2016. My rationale is primarily low valuations relatively to history and currencies. You can see how they got to low valuations in the recent 10 year underperformance compared to the S&P. It also doesn't hurt that EM country currencies on average trade at a discount...
by asif408
Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1458

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

One thing to consider is that correlations among all stock asset classes began rising in the early to mid-2000s, and between about 2007 and 2011, correlations were about the highest they've been (~0.8-0.9) for most stock asset classes, including things like REITs which in the past had lower correlat...
by asif408
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5996

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

I also found your comments on fund expense useful: in Europe where I live I can get an Emerging Europe ETF for a total cost of 0.2%/yr, and ETFs for Italy and Spain for slightly more; but other countries like South Korea (where I novertheless was lucky to invest last summer) are more expensive so I...
by asif408
Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5996

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

So I am looking instead to understand if there are valid reasons for NOT overweighting EM or Italy and Spain. I haven't understood yet the reason why one should allocate following what the market does. As I mentioned in a post above for example, the Larry Swedroe portfolio too has nothing to do wit...
by asif408
Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative website for those in lower tax brackets?
Replies: 59
Views: 5527

Re: Alternative website for those in lower tax brackets?

As someone in a lower tax bracket, I've learned you can find the information here, you just have to search a little more or specify in your question. Things like the Saver's Credit, tax gain harvesting for 0% long-term capital gains (LTCG), using a Roth instead of 529 for college savings, etc. are t...
by asif408
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PPO vs. HDHP w/HSA for Pregnancy decision
Replies: 16
Views: 1062

Re: PPO vs. HDHP w/HSA for Pregnancy decision

Your biggest costs will likely be once your wife goes into the hospital to give birth and any after birth complications. At least that is how ours went. Costs were relatively low leading up to birth (well checkups were covered by HDHP), and the birth occurred in March, so most of our expenses were f...
by asif408
Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5996

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

Thanks for your feedback! :happy I also have overweighted all the countries you mention (for Poland it's within an Emerging Europe ETF, which includes Hungary and the Czech Republic in lower quantities). One last question: do you also have Turkey? Not a separate fund for it, only what is contained ...
by asif408
Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5996

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

The answer is always the same: What do you know that the market does not know? Victoria I don't think it's a question of smarter, the better question is: who is on the other side of the trade? Successful investing doesn't require a particularly high IQ, as Warren Bufffett notes. But you can't outpe...
by asif408
Mon Apr 09, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Easily digestible info/blog on finances for spouse?
Replies: 35
Views: 2532

Re: Easily digestible info/blog on finances for spouse?

I agree with JoMoney about Clark Howard. He covers enough variety so as not to bore listeners, and does a pretty good job covering the basics of finance and investing without getting too technical. As much as I think the books by Dr. Bernstein, Jack Bogle, and other investing writers are fascinating...
by asif408
Mon Apr 09, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5996

Re: A good time [price wise] to buy Russian Stocks?

The real delta is perhaps the oil price? Oil prices are up a lot from about 2 years ago. That's the underpinning of corporate Russia & the Russian economy. Definitely a big chunk, as energy makes up almost 40% of investable Russia: http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=ERUS. Sort of simi...
by asif408
Mon Apr 09, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5996

Re: A good time [price wise] to buy Russian Stocks?

I don't think Russian stocks are any more attractive today than they were 2,3,4, or 5 years ago. So if you were willing to invest in them then you should still now. Now, they are certainly more attractive than they were in 2007 and 2008, when the Russian CAPE ratio was higher than the US. But that's...
by asif408
Sat Apr 07, 2018 6:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value premium harvestable?
Replies: 39
Views: 2451

Re: Value premium harvestable?

If the factors are pervasive, reliable, and harvestable after costs for investors, we would not expect a high quality competently run firm (Vanguard) to miss the mark for decades. Factor backtesting research looks compelling and robust, but there's often a wide gulf between academic research based ...
by asif408
Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10673

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

Here's a post in another thread I found interesting and pertaining to our discussion: Re: How much international stock? A suggestion. Post by oldzey » Wed Apr 04, 2018 7:56 pm "The inception date of Vanguard Total Stock U.S. Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) was 4/27/1992. The inception date of Vangu...
by asif408
Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wash sale rule question
Replies: 3
Views: 320

Re: Wash sale rule question

Thanks, livesoft and iceport. Appreciate the links, I will take a look at them.
by asif408
Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Wash sale rule question
Replies: 3
Views: 320

Wash sale rule question

I recently sold some shares of a fund in a taxable account to tax-gain harvest, since I am in the 15% marginal tax bracket and pay 0% LTCG. I bought the shares back immediately, but now plan to sell some of those shares I recently bought back to contribute to IRAs for my wife and I. In that time fra...
by asif408
Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Substantial initial investment + Overvalued market = Trouble?
Replies: 28
Views: 2934

Re: Substantial initial investment + Overvalued market = Trouble?

Since you are a resident of the EU, I want to make you aware (if you are not already) than there are plenty of other markets that are far from record highs. Here are just a few examples, including Brazil, Russia, Austria, France, Spain, Italy, and the UK, which are 20-60% below their all time highs:...
by asif408
Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Index Admiral Shares or ETF's??
Replies: 20
Views: 1130

Re: Index Admiral Shares or ETF's??

Agree with others suggesting mutual funds. Will also mention that I don't think there is any way to automatically purchase ETFs on a monthly schedule through Vanguard (at least when I checked into it last year), so if you're planning to set up automatic contributions through Vanguard so you don't ha...
by asif408
Mon Apr 02, 2018 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10673

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

It's not about correlations but dispersion of potential returns. I suspect (but don't have data) that the Japanese stock market has gone up and down more or less with the rest of the global stock market (i.e. had a high correlation) despite its decades of dismal under-performance. So it's not about...
by asif408
Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VWITX or Ally Bank Savings
Replies: 7
Views: 1345

Re: VWITX or Ally Bank Savings

OP, Assuming you are willing to take a bit more risk, why not instead consider another alternative: 90% in HY savings accounts and 10% in a total world index fund? To me, that is less risky than putting it all in VWITX and a bit more tax efficient, essentially gives you the same effect (potentially ...
by asif408
Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Emerging Europe funds / strategies?
Replies: 12
Views: 937

Re: Emerging Europe funds / strategies?

It just seems odd that, with the plethora of ETFs and indexes now, that there aren't any that either track a more inclusive group of emerging Europe or just a comprehensive Europe fund, cap-weighted or not. I know of two emerging Europe funds that used to exist. They were liquidated because they di...
by asif408
Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?
Replies: 139
Views: 10673

Re: The "American companies I invest in already have international exposure" argument --- valid or not?

I'm thinking about investing only in California companies. They make up 73 out of the 500 US companies in the S&P 500 which is a far higher percentage than their population. The returns are likely greater as they have most of the really innovative high tech growth companies. To round it out there a...