Search found 1420 matches

by asif408
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA investment plan
Replies: 10
Views: 657

Re: HSA investment plan

Since you are planning to invest in a Treasury bond fund, I'd wait until you have at least $3000 or so dollars in the HSA before investing. In fact, I'm tempted to say if you are not going to invest in equities it would probably be best just to find an HSA with a high yield savings account to invest...
by asif408
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple-minded sayings?
Replies: 21
Views: 1151

Re: Simple-minded sayings?

A pithy saying doesn't really provide much analysis or end a debate. True, but most people who have lots of followers or fans have pithy sayings, because long-winded discussions about nuance tend not to appeal to the masses, especially about topics that they have lukewarm interest in. Think radio a...
by asif408
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with HSA fund selection
Replies: 4
Views: 317

Re: Help with HSA fund selection

Based on your asset allocation, VTPSX, VIIIX, and VBMPX, with possibly the addition of VEMIX if you don't have emerging markets elsewhere, are all good choices. Like others above, I keep just one or two funds in my HSA, no need to mirror asset allocation in each account unless you really want to or ...
by asif408
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can predictions on currency depreciaction be any more accurate than those of the stock market?
Replies: 9
Views: 481

Re: Can predictions on currency depreciaction be any more accurate than those of the stock market?

I would say no. The only thing that can probably be said is that there tends to be cyclicality in performance of currencies, so since the dollar has been appreciating most of the last 7 years against other currencies around the world, at some point the trend will likely reverse. When and what path i...
by asif408
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advantage of Rebalancing for different asset allocations
Replies: 25
Views: 1397

Re: Advantage of Rebalancing for different asset allocations

In general, unless bonds outperform stocks or only underperform slightly, rebalancing between stocks and bonds will reduce returns over most investment horizons. Rebalancing between stock asset classes, such as between US and emerging markets stocks, or between US stocks and precious metals equities...
by asif408
Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 44
Views: 2165

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

I think it depends on what you mean by "stability". If you mean something that goes up when stocks are down, bonds and bond funds are more likely to do that, particularly high quality Treasuries, but no guarantees. If you mean by "stability" having money to spend at a certain point in the near futur...
by asif408
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What can go wrong in shorting Tilray, and can EU investors short it (and how?)
Replies: 29
Views: 1192

Re: What can go wrong in shorting Tilray, and can EU investors short it (and how?)

As others have pointed out, shorting is risky because you can be right about Tilray crashing in the longer run and lose all your money and more in the short run doing it. If you want to gamble, I'd take the other side and just buy a small amount, say equivalent to 0.1% of your overall portfolio, and...
by asif408
Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA Investment Options
Replies: 8
Views: 434

Re: HSA Investment Options

To me, any of these are good options: Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund(VTMGX) $13.70 Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund(VEMAX) $33.96 Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares(VFIAX) $269.36 Vanguard LIfeStrategy Conservative Growth Investor(VSCGX) $20.03 Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Gro...
by asif408
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying I-Bonds
Replies: 9
Views: 711

Re: Buying I-Bonds

Thanks everyone, I likely should have been more clear. I often see commented that I-bonds can be held in ones Taxable account. I am trying to understand how they actually get into the taxable account. Is this performed at the time of purchase through Treasury Direct? Maybe I am misunderstanding thi...
by asif408
Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VNBX - Vang. Total International Bond Index -- Dollar Strength?
Replies: 1
Views: 176

Re: VNBX - Vang. Total International Bond Index -- Dollar Strength?

Yes, it appears to me that the currency hedging is beneficial to BNDX in years when the dollar is rising and hurts when the dollar is falling. You can see that in 2017 BNDX underperformed BND, a year the dollar fell relative to other currencies. Since the dollar has been strong most other years, BND...
by asif408
Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?
Replies: 24
Views: 2739

Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Because you own target date funds, you don't have to do anything during a downturn (or an upturn for that matter) other than to keep buying shares of the funds. The funds will rebalance themselves for you, as they are a mix of stocks and bonds. When there is a downturn your funds will be buying more...
by asif408
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 4798

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

I have about 20% of my portfolio in funds invested in the stocks of commodities producers. I was persuaded by the writings of Bill Bernstein and GMO regarding commodities that if I was going to invest in commodities to avoid commodities futures and stick with commodity producing companies, as backw...
by asif408
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 4798

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

I have about 20% of my portfolio in funds invested in the stocks of commodities producers. I was persuaded by the writings of Bill Bernstein and GMO regarding commodities that if I was going to invest in commodities to avoid commodities futures and stick with commodity producing companies, as backwa...
by asif408
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA administrator options
Replies: 14
Views: 1510

Re: HSA administrator options

Anyone use Lively? $30/yr and $7 trades, brokerage with TD Ameritrade has pretty favorable reviews. Deciding btw them and HSA Authority, $36/yr and does have access to vanguard total market fund, but from reviews they seem less user friendly. Yes, I do, and I like them. $30/year, and that is drawn ...
by asif408
Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?
Replies: 35
Views: 2453

Re: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?

I admit I'm somewhat of a market timer. My reading and research, which I admit I've only been doing for about 5 years or so, has convinced me that most forms of market timing, especially the short ones, probably won't work over any long investment period. That would include things like shifting betw...
by asif408
Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard adding commission free index funds, better core replacements?
Replies: 8
Views: 1216

Re: Vanguard adding commission free index funds, better core replacements?

Based on the last 3 years performance: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf/chart.action?t=VTI®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A7%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Afalse%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSettingId%22%3A%22nav%22%2C%22benchmarkSettingId%22...
by asif408
Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to do value investing?
Replies: 37
Views: 2479

Re: Good time to do value investing?

I think it's a reasonable idea, you've just got to ask yourself how long would you do it before you would give up on it. Say, for example, you start value tilting today and in 3-4 years value is still lagging growth, would you stick with it or add more to it?
by asif408
Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: PICK etf
Replies: 1
Views: 201

Re: PICK etf

The question is why would you want to decrease it? If it is because of recent poor performance that is not a good reason. If it is because you no longer want extra exposure to the metals and mining industry that is fine.
by asif408
Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6377

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

So I'll save you from the lecturers that will say "Nobody knows nuttin' " or "10 year forecasts are useless" and just say that in the link you provided most of the estimates for foreign stock returns were higher than US bond returns. So why not put some money in foreign stocks? It appears from your ...
by asif408
Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA card for spouse
Replies: 3
Views: 209

Re: HSA card for spouse

Thanks, 47Percent and Spirit Rider, it doesn't bother me as long as it's legal. In case your thinking that this is a sexist statement. My frame of reference was a women I worked with, who obtained an HSA debit card card for her husband. He seemed to think he could use it for anything at CVS includin...
by asif408
Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA card for spouse
Replies: 3
Views: 209

HSA card for spouse

I have a HDHP/HSA through work with my spouse included on the HDHP. We recently obtained a HSA card for her to use and it has her maiden name on it. My previous HSA card provider issued a card for her with my name on it. I was wondering if anyone knows if it matters what name is on the spouse's card...
by asif408
Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Books
Replies: 42
Views: 2799

Re: Investment Books

Most of the books on my bookshelf are older, and good references from a historical perspective. I have about 5 I find myself re-reading from time to time. Those are A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Against the Gods, Four Pillars of Investing, Devil Take the Hindmost, and Global Investing. They were a...
by asif408
Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Construction: Total World Stock + TIPS or Treasuries
Replies: 40
Views: 3242

Re: Portfolio Construction: Total World Stock + TIPS or Treasuries

Thanks much for that info, gmaynardkrebs. Probably a rather unlikely occurrence to have inflation adjusted principle value below original face value (I would think), but would be a useful feature in a prolonged deflationary period. For some reason I thought this 'floor' was unique to I-bonds (and t...
by asif408
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 77
Views: 8817

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

I was pondering if we should switch the VGPMX data series in the Simba backtesting spreadsheet to something else, possibly complemented back in history by a proper index. Point being to illustrate with happened with this 'Precious Metals and Mining' sector that was clamored to be a good diversifier...
by asif408
Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1046
Views: 80755

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If you are missing anything, it's probably that the correlation between US and non-US stocks has not been steadily marching upward. Correlations have indeed been higher over the past 10 years than they were, say, during the 1970s but they've actually been DECLINING since 2011 or so. https://i.imgur...
by asif408
Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1046
Views: 80755

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

No denial here. But I am skeptical that my international equity allocation will be a savior to me during whatever time frame US stocks take a beating. Or, for that matter, that in another thirty years I will even be grateful to have held them, period. Hopefully I am wrong and will be pleasantly sur...
by asif408
Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?
Replies: 100
Views: 7339

Re: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?

If I was in your shoes I would probably move a portion of my fixed income (whatever I needed in the next 5 years, say) into a money market, CDs, or T-bills/notes, and leave the remainder in VBTLX. As you say, the yield curve is pretty flat, and the difference between 1 month bills and 30 year bonds ...
by asif408
Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Views on VNQ / GLD with the market at highs
Replies: 6
Views: 561

Re: Views on VNQ / GLD with the market at highs

No criticism here if you are rebalancing into laggards. That's good Boglehead practice.
by asif408
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Equity Risk Premium Higher in Low-Interest Rate Currencies?
Replies: 8
Views: 527

Re: Is the Equity Risk Premium Higher in Low-Interest Rate Currencies?

That's also an interesting consideration. Therefore, all the threads discussing the angst regarding high US valuations would seem even more justified as the US have higher valuations and relatively higher interest rates than the rest of the developed markets (with EU and Japan still having negative...
by asif408
Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1046
Views: 80755

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

http://shiller.barclays.com/SM/12/en/indices/static/historic-ratios.app Really cool link. Thanks for sharing. Agreed; that's very interesting. According to this, my home market of Sweden briefly reached Japanese levels of CAPE, at over 79 in February 2000. I wasn't investing back then, but still, I...
by asif408
Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 4635

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

So to be clear, you're saying that forward P/E ratios are worthless (i.e. a completely opaque windshield in your analogy)? No, what I'm saying is that whether you use forward or trainings earnings, neither one can actually see the future. Alex implies with his analogy that you can actually see futu...
by asif408
Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 4635

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

Would you rather drive with perfect 20/20 vision using the rear-view mirror, or stare forward into the foggy mist? If you want to know what earnings will be next year, use forward earnings. That being said, we are only talking about earnings, we are not talking about P/E ratios or price. Just want ...
by asif408
Mon Aug 27, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 4635

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

Sort of the same way I would focus more on a politician's voting record and past transgressions over projections of what that politician will do in the future by pundits and prognosticators who, although they may know the person well, are still trying to predict the future. I think that corporate e...
by asif408
Mon Aug 27, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 4635

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

:thumbsup I believe that the forward P/E is more meaningful to stocks' performance going forward than earnings from a decade ago. The market is far more forward looking than backward looking. I would agree it is probably more meaningful if you have some level of faith in the accuracy of the data, b...
by asif408
Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Equity Risk Premium Higher in Low-Interest Rate Currencies?
Replies: 8
Views: 527

Re: Is the Equity Risk Premium Higher in Low-Interest Rate Currencies?

It does appear the potential equity risk premium is higher overseas than in the US, as interest rates and valuations are lower there, particularly in the developed markets. Low valuations and low interest rates would seem to be, in general, a sign that the potential equity risk premium is higher tha...
by asif408
Mon Aug 27, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1046
Views: 80755

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

One limitation in CAPE is that it doesn't take into account current interest rates or the shift of the U.S. to be more tech sector heavy. The tech sector is expected to have higher P/Es. So it seems like a wash. Interestingly, both the emerging market and US stock market indexes largest sector is i...
by asif408
Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1046
Views: 80755

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

One limitation in CAPE is that it doesn't take into account current interest rates or the shift of the U.S. to be more tech sector heavy. The tech sector is expected to have higher P/Es. So it seems like a wash. Interestingly, both the emerging market and US stock market indexes largest sector is i...
by asif408
Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 4635

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

I think by Tobin's Q it is not terrible. I imagine some of the forward earnings measures are ok, since those tend to be rosy and based on something that hasn't happened yet.

But if you are also invested in non-US stocks and have some bonds, why the worry?
by asif408
Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Engineering my international equity allocation from limited 403b options
Replies: 5
Views: 171

Re: Engineering my international equity allocation from limited 403b options

I am taking the board's advice and lumping all of my investments into one theoretical account, distributing assets across three different accounts (2 403b and 1 401k) to create an overall portfolio that is 60% US equity, 20% int'l equity, and 20% US income. None of the funds are in taxable accounts...
by asif408
Mon Aug 27, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1046
Views: 80755

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Thx asif408. PS We need an international Shiller-type site. I forgot to mention, and as others have noted, Research Affiliates puts out CAPE ratios for international groupings such as EAFE and EM monthly here: https://interactive.researchaffiliates.com/asset-allocation#!/?currency=USD&expanded=tert...
by asif408
Sun Aug 26, 2018 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1046
Views: 80755

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

My real question is where do I find a a source for historical PE values (or any other reasonable valuation metric) for an "International stock index"? (e.g. trying to get a sense of how elevated International stock valuations are today versus their own historical average) Tends to be difficult to f...
by asif408
Sun Aug 26, 2018 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1046
Views: 80755

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

My real question is where do I find a a source for historical PE values (or any other reasonable valuation metric) for an "International stock index"? (e.g. trying to get a sense of how elevated International stock valuations are today versus their own historical average) Tends to be difficult to f...
by asif408
Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3289
Views: 994753

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Global Investing: The Professional's Guide to the World Capital Markets by Ibbotson and Brinson. Has some pretty interesting statistics about international investing. For instance, I didn't know before reading that the Japanese stock market had spectacular returns in the 1970s and 1980s relative to...
by asif408
Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1046
Views: 80755

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

My real question is where do I find a a source for historical PE values (or any other reasonable valuation metric) for an "International stock index"? (e.g. trying to get a sense of how elevated International stock valuations are today versus their own historical average) Tends to be difficult to f...
by asif408
Fri Aug 24, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1046
Views: 80755

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Did I miss anything? You may want to specify on the first point that a majority of r ecent timeframes favored the US. From 1970-1990, the US stock market was one of the worst performing stock markets worldwide, and during that time frame several countries, including Japan and Hong Kong, had nearly ...
by asif408
Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1046
Views: 80755

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

So, is it "riskier" to invest 100% in U.S. stocks, or is it "riskier" to invest some money in non-U.S. equities? Seems to me it depends on the time frame. From 1999-2008, here are the returns of the S&P 500 vs emerging markets: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4...
by asif408
Fri Aug 24, 2018 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias
Replies: 31
Views: 2643

Re: Home Country Bias

It should be noted, of course, that the costs of home country bias are smaller for American investors than anyone else by virtue of their stock market size and diversity. I've never understood this. Wouldn't the same have been true of Japanese investors in 1990 and UK investors in the early 1900s, ...
by asif408
Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this phrase in BH Wiki
Replies: 25
Views: 2122

Re: Help me understand this phrase in BH Wiki

I would add it could also refer to potential loss during a crisis. For instance, small and value stocks fell more in the Great Depression and during the Great Financial crisis than large and growth stocks. Therefore, small / value funds will not be good investments for those whose human capital is ...
by asif408
Thu Aug 23, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand this phrase in BH Wiki
Replies: 25
Views: 2122

Re: Help me understand this phrase in BH Wiki

I would add it could also refer to potential loss during a crisis. For instance, small and value stocks fell more in the Great Depression and during the Great Financial crisis than large and growth stocks. Though this may not always be the case, because in the 2000-2002 dot com bubble but the opposi...