Search found 1498 matches

by asif408
Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which asset class is down the most for you?
Replies: 12
Views: 1035

Re: Which asset class is down the most for you?

My international funds have become precious metal mining funds as they continue to explore and venture deeper into the Earth's core (down over 10% YTD). I've addressed this by continuing to invest like normal. Nah, they need to drop 30-40% on a regular basis to become PME funds. My gold miners fund...
by asif408
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 58
Views: 3542

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

First we need to strip out currency. To a modest extent, stronger USD probably lowers the profits of US companies (because they earn so much money abroad). But it definitely raises the relative performance of the US index. From the historical data I've seen the ratio of the Euro to the USD now is s...
by asif408
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 58
Views: 3542

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

Yes, many, including Turkey, Russia, Brazil, Italy, & Spain are still down 50-60% from their 2008 highs: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf/chart.action?t=SPY®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Afalse%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%2...
by asif408
Thu Dec 13, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 58
Views: 3542

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

First we need to strip out currency. To a modest extent, stronger USD probably lowers the profits of US companies (because they earn so much money abroad). But it definitely raises the relative performance of the US index. From the historical data I've seen the ratio of the Euro to the USD now is s...
by asif408
Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any market that is not inflated?
Replies: 58
Views: 3542

Re: Is there any market that is not inflated?

Yes, many, including Turkey, Russia, Brazil, Italy, & Spain are still down 50-60% from their 2008 highs: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf/chart.action?t=SPY®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Afalse%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22...
by asif408
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Account simplification strategies w.r.t. asset allocation?
Replies: 7
Views: 249

Re: Account simplification strategies w.r.t. asset allocation?

I don't think previous generations could create a diversified portfolio as easily as today with just 3 funds, in the old days you had a bunch of individual stocks and probably little international exposure. I don't think you need to keep track of your asset allocation across each account, just make ...
by asif408
Tue Dec 11, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What should a new investor being reading?
Replies: 29
Views: 2025

Re: What should a new investor being reading?

eddy, I would suggest (if you are not terribly interested in finance or get bored easily by financial books) to start with 'A Random Walk Down Wall Street'. That's the one I started with, and it kept my attention starting out because it is not as dry as some of the other books on investing are. If y...
by asif408
Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vangurad's 2019 Economic and Market Outlook
Replies: 27
Views: 2695

Re: Vangurad's 2019 Economic and Market Outlook

They used CAPEs relative to fair-value CAPE to determine valuation of markets, yet they used 3 different time intervals for US (starting in 1940), developed (starting in 1970), & emerging (starting in 1990). It seems odd to me that EM and US are overvalued while ex-US is not. Most other valuation me...
by asif408
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 4688

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]

I think it's just a way for people to justify what they want to do, that being not invest in Internationals because of poor recent performance. If they were outpacing US stocks, we wouldn't be hearing this kind of talk. I don't know. Jack Bogle has had this same opinion for many years. I'm mainly t...
by asif408
Tue Dec 11, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Total International Stock Market in a three fund portfolio?
Replies: 12
Views: 1003

Re: Total International Stock Market in a three fund portfolio?

OP, I want you to travel back in time with me, say to April 2011, and look at the performance of Int'l vs. US from Mar 2002- Apr 2011: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2002&firstMonth=3&endYear=2011&lastMonth=4&calendarAligned=true&endDate=12%2F10%2F2...
by asif408
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 52
Views: 4049

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

OP, I don't think anyone can definitively break down the % reason for past underperformance of international, though if I was to throw my 2 cents in I would guess the sector composition and rising dollar were a significant portion of it, just like the sector composition and a falling dollar were th...
by asif408
Mon Dec 10, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International underperformance - how to break it down
Replies: 52
Views: 4049

Re: International underperformance - how to break it down

OP, I don't think anyone can definitively break down the % reason for past underperformance of international, though if I was to throw my 2 cents in I would guess the sector composition and rising dollar were a significant portion of it, just like the sector composition and a falling dollar were the...
by asif408
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who is buying SCV, EM, Intl SC
Replies: 41
Views: 2646

Re: Who is buying SCV, EM, Intl SC

I bought some more EM value and some gold mining stocks a few months ago. I think the EM value and gold mining funds have outperformed the US market since I rebalanced. Not to say it will continue, but nice to see rebalancing pay off quickly for a change. I only own a tiny portion of US stocks (<10%...
by asif408
Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?
Replies: 16
Views: 1359

Re: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?

The US and developed international markets are highly correlated This is true-ish but also a bit misleading. By looking at developed (or emerging) in aggregate it becomes a bit weird to talk about whether they are correlated with the US and whether that's a useful difference between developed and e...
by asif408
Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]
Replies: 57
Views: 4688

Re: You already own international stocks with VTSMX etc [Vanguard Total Stock Market]

In one of the interviews with JL Collins on Youtube he makes an argument against the need to explicitly include international funds or stocks in your portfolio, since broad-based index funds include big "U.S." companies with significant international business. I don't know who that is but many peop...
by asif408
Thu Dec 06, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?
Replies: 16
Views: 1359

Re: Is the division of international markets into "developed" and "emerging" meaningful?

The US and developed international markets are highly correlated, yet the returns have differed pretty substantially over the last 6-7 years. You see a similar difference at times with emerging markets. Just look, for instance, at the performance from 2011-2016: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/a...
by asif408
Fri Nov 30, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Market Volatility
Replies: 29
Views: 2084

Re: Current Market Volatility

I did some rebalancing a few months ago and bought more emerging markets and gold miners, since they were down the most this year when I checked. But no change in overall strategy, continuing to buy low and sell high periodically (mostly just buying low here lately, though).
by asif408
Thu Nov 29, 2018 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Evaluate A New Potential Portfolio Addition?
Replies: 14
Views: 828

Re: How Do You Evaluate A New Potential Portfolio Addition?

Here are my criteria: 1) Is it easily investable through a fund and is the cost not much higher than my current funds? 2) Is there at least a few decades of historical data to support some potential benefit? 3) Has there been any historical correlation benefit in the past which could potentially low...
by asif408
Thu Nov 29, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 99021

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

also, they both own the same sectors in nearly identical proportions, I think domestic has a slightly higher weighting on the tech sector. According to Morningstar, here are the sector weightings for VTI (Total US) and VXUS (Total International): http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=VTI...
by asif408
Thu Nov 29, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 99021

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

interesting how some bogleheads are incapable of selecting stocks while capable of selecting stock markets. I guess you haven't heard how much safer, better regulated, etc. the US is than every other country in the world. Plus it is most of the world's market cap (just like Japan was in the 1980s),...
by asif408
Wed Nov 28, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 99021

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

To me it is completely logical that in today’s market just owning the companies in the s/p 500 will give you adequate exposure to the global economy. Plus, over the last 20 years the correlation between US/INTL has approached 90%. Maybe the global economy, but not the global returns, because a glob...
by asif408
Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A lot of us expected a US stock "pull back" is this it?
Replies: 58
Views: 7830

Re: A lot of us expected a US stock "pull back" is this it?

I have no idea, and won't speculate, but I do know international and emerging market stocks have already fallen 15-25% this year, depending on the index you look at, so a pullback is already underway overseas.
by asif408
Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worst investing year ever....
Replies: 73
Views: 11324

Re: Worst investing year ever....

Admittedly I am cherry picking but look at 2002-2011: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTSMX+VTMGX+VEIEX&startDate=3%2F7%2F2002&endDate=4%2F30%2F2011&timePeriod=1&numTradingDays=60 and then 2011-Present: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&sym...
by asif408
Mon Nov 26, 2018 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?
Replies: 119
Views: 7075

Re: What is your allocation to U.S. and International?

abuss368 wrote:
Sun Nov 25, 2018 11:24 am
asif408 wrote:
Sun Nov 25, 2018 8:25 am
10% US/90% international
Hi asif408 -

Is your post correct? You allocate 90% to international stock?

Best.
Yes, it is correct.
by asif408
Fri Nov 16, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 171
Views: 9686

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

Just curious if anyone on here would be ardent U.S. only investors if the returns would have been the opposite of international the last 20 years? How much of all of this is purely behavioral. I am ALWAYS skeptical there isn't a behavioral issue with myself when I want to invest in something which ...
by asif408
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 171
Views: 9686

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

Here are some excerpts from a few books I think are useful to this discussion. First, from 'Against the Gods' by Peter Bernstein, speaks about emerging markets performance vs the S&P 500 in the early 1990s: Or consider those 13 emerging markets I mentioned earlier. From the end of 1989 to February 1...
by asif408
Thu Nov 15, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 99021

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

JoMoney wrote:
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:39 pm
That is a typical argument, except empirically it hasn't been the case when comparing a U.S. only portfolio (and possibly other countries I haven't looked at). A lower standard deviation should have a more narrow dispersion of outcomes.
Can you point me to the empirical data?
by asif408
Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 99021

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Even if you have a global cap-weighted portfolio, over half of your portfolio is in one country, so the idea that you would no longer have a lot of country risk is robustly false. Sure, 50% is high, but you don't have 100% country risk, and if the US underperforms for a while, it will become a smal...
by asif408
Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you all staying the course?
Replies: 114
Views: 7221

Re: Are you all staying the course?

I am. 100% stocks, mostly EM and foreign developed. Rebalanced a few months ago into EM but otherwise no action.
by asif408
Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 99021

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Can you substantiate the past long-term benefit of having ex-US in your portfolio? I've seen the results for the last 20, 30, 50, and even 80 years, and ex-US harmed the portfolio for all of these. Is that not long-term enough? There were indeed a few years here and there, or even an occasional dec...
by asif408
Tue Nov 13, 2018 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 99021

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

Whether the benefit of added diversification is worth the added cost and risk is an inherently subjective decision, mainly because all of the risks involved cannot be quantified in order to make the decision an objective one. It doesn't matter how many experts can be lined up on either side of the ...
by asif408
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: P/E Ratios - US vs International
Replies: 19
Views: 1501

Re: P/E Ratios - US vs International

My advice is look at multiple metrics, say P/E, P/B, CAPE, P/S, P/CF, etc. Looking up funds on Morningstar is one way to find valuations metrics. I put more weight in valuation metrics such as P/E when they diverge significantly and for several years between assets. Anything less than a few years is...
by asif408
Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 754
Views: 99021

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I just ran across the below chart, and it reminded me of this thread. Apparently, holding international stocks at 20% (actually 18.3%) of total equities is the aggregate weighting of how U.S. investors hold international stocks: https://i.postimg.cc/C1C1t36w/intl.jpg Thanks for sharing. Before the ...
by asif408
Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: State retirement pensions thoughts?
Replies: 36
Views: 3811

Re: State retirement pensions thoughts?

I'm in a similar position, and I don't think it's necessarily dumb. I don't expect to get 100% of what's promised from our state pension, but we also save as much in Roth IRAs on the side as we can. We also invest our Roths mostly internationally as a hedge, since the pension fund in my state has a ...
by asif408
Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock markets not at all time highs
Replies: 19
Views: 2503

Re: Stock markets not at all time highs

For those that have been posting about being scared about investing at all time highs, I have some great news for you. Most of the markets, including the US, are not trading at all time highs right now: https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1060163604689838080. In fact, a number are down 20-30%...
by asif408
Thu Nov 08, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock markets not at all time highs
Replies: 19
Views: 2503

Stock markets not at all time highs

For those that have been posting about being scared about investing at all time highs, I have some great news for you. Most of the markets, including the US, are not trading at all time highs right now: https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1060163604689838080. In fact, a number are down 20-30% ...
by asif408
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What To Do When An Investment Strategy Performs Poorly
Replies: 11
Views: 1779

Re: Larry Swedroe: What To Do When An Investment Strategy Performs Poorly

As goblue cited above, temperament and patience are not qualities abundant among a good majority of Bogleheads. :confused Are we reading the same board? Mantras of "Buy and Hold" , "Stay the Course" , "Don't time the market" are in every thread. If the BH's are not patient, who is? I said good majo...
by asif408
Tue Nov 06, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What To Do When An Investment Strategy Performs Poorly
Replies: 11
Views: 1779

Re: Larry Swedroe: What To Do When An Investment Strategy Performs Poorly

I think the section on impatience is most applicable to regular visitors of this board, particularly the first quote: Warren Buffett famously noted that when it comes to investing, temperament, which provides the discipline to ignore what economists know are random periods of underperformance and ad...
by asif408
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 13496

Re: Diversification Regret

I like the approach vineviz. In practice, there would be a few “capitulation points” where the 100% S&P 500 investor threw in the towel and sold everything due to severe drawdown, capitulations which would not occur as often with a diversified portfolio. This behavioral-informed comparison would ha...
by asif408
Fri Nov 02, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 13496

Re: Diversification Regret

Interesting way to look at things, thanks for sharing. One thing that is noteworthy is though the magnitude of the underperformance is less than it was from 1994-1999, the duration has been longer (2010-2018). So I imagine it's even more difficult for investors when things have been going one way fo...
by asif408
Fri Nov 02, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Apple's share plummeting: should we 'kick out the largest stock' as Rob Arnott suggests?
Replies: 40
Views: 2107

Re: Apple's share plummeting: should we 'kick out the largest stock' as Rob Arnott suggests?

I don't think even Arnott suggests shorting a stock, as you might be right in the long run but lose everything before you are proven right.
by asif408
Thu Nov 01, 2018 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Time to rebalance
Replies: 3
Views: 407

Re: Time to rebalance

What you are feeling is normal. It took me several years to condition myself to rebalance properly, and there are still instances where I get a nervous feeling in my gut when I do it. Selling what is doing well and buying what is doing poorly is the essence of rebalancing; always remember it should ...
by asif408
Thu Nov 01, 2018 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 3051

Re: Is market cap weighting a dumb idea?

In theory what he says may be true. But his claim of any methodology outperforming is spurious at best. That may have been true in the past, but not necessary true in the future, especially now that all these different strategies are so easily investable. The biggest problem is that any strategy tha...
by asif408
Wed Oct 31, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Limting Human Bias - 3 Fund VS Vanguard Target Life Strategy
Replies: 30
Views: 2254

Re: Limting Human Bias - 3 Fund VS Vanguard Target Life Strategy

I think either the Target Date/Lifestrategy funds or a Total World Fund are great options. It's likely Vanguard will continually tweak the TD/LS funds, but probably won't make that much difference over the long haul, just something to be aware of in case they do at some point decide to make any sign...
by asif408
Tue Oct 30, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed? [Vanguard Total International]
Replies: 69
Views: 6285

Re: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed? [Vanguard Total International]

I wouldn't say I get giddy seeing it drop, but I do get giddy when I see so many people on here capitulating with respect to international investing and listing a myriad of justifications for why international is destined to continue its recent underperformance and why the US is so great. The USA ch...
by asif408
Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is emerging markets investable?
Replies: 51
Views: 2987

Re: Is emerging markets investable?

Do you still think so after reading this article? It is almost a fact that China's stunning GDP growth is reflected to 0% degree into its stock market. The Chinese stock market is a complete casino filled with speculation and no real investment. https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterpham/2018/02/22/wha...
by asif408
Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works
Replies: 119
Views: 9539

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works

They should consider their unique situations given the economic background in their countries. Obviously Nigerian stock exchange and currency is not the same as US, so perhaps they shouldn't be investing in equities at all and instead own physical gold. This is a pointless question that I keep hear...
by asif408
Thu Oct 25, 2018 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works
Replies: 119
Views: 9539

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works

To repeat: my understanding of the benefit of diversification is that the objective is to reduce the volatility of returns, or more specifically to improve risk-adjusted returns. Even Swedroe's data doesn't illustrate that international investing has done that. If that is how you define diversifica...
by asif408
Thu Oct 25, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works
Replies: 119
Views: 9539

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why International Diversification Works

One of large benefits of diversification of lower returning assets is if they have lower correlation (especially in downturns). The best example for US stocks is US bonds. International stocks do not have low correlation with US stocks & actually have high correlation in downturns. I agree correlat...