Search found 1265 matches

by asif408
Thu Jun 21, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VEUSX Time To Sell?
Replies: 17
Views: 697

Re: VEUSX Time To Sell?

I have another 15 % of my holdings in an international mutual fund and it has done terrible over the 17 years I have held it. My 401k contributions have been US:International 50:50 for all that time with gains reinvested in their respective funds. The totals are now 59:41. I sold my VEMAX three yea...
by asif408
Thu Jun 21, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VEUSX Time To Sell?
Replies: 17
Views: 697

Re: VEUSX Time To Sell?

If you are going to hold it, you should probably be buying more of it, as it has underperformed VTSAX and it was probably once a greater percentage of what you owned. This is the buy low, sell high mentality and generally works in the long term but can feel terrible in the short term. If you aren't ...
by asif408
Wed Jun 20, 2018 10:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Current Market
Replies: 22
Views: 1689

Re: The Current Market

I have no insight in to the future, but this type of behavior has happened in the past. In fact this type of behavior happens pretty regularly in the stock market. If it recovers from here, this will be what is known as a correction (10% or so drop). If it keeps yo-yoing and then goes down further t...
by asif408
Tue Jun 19, 2018 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 6639
Views: 1435360

Re: Anyone buying today?

TSM is only down 3% from January highs, so don't see what action could be taken. Bonds are also down about 2.5% during that time. EM is down 15% in that same time span, so since that is a decent drop, maybe buy some more EM if you feel compelled to buy something.
by asif408
Mon Jun 18, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes
Replies: 37
Views: 4022

Re: You Can Market Time At Valuation Extremes

I'm not quite clear if the OP is talking about timing among stock markets or switching between stocks and bonds. If he's talking about timing among stock markets, the evidence is much more supportive than going between stocks and bonds. And for those that say timing need to be perfect, I'm not so su...
by asif408
Sat Jun 16, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should your employment/income source determine your investment choices?
Replies: 13
Views: 937

Re: Should your employment/income source determine your investment choices?

I agree with others that say it shouldn't matter much. The only related application I use it for is to hold more foreign stocks in my IRAs, since the pension plan I am a part of at work owns a lot more domestic stocks. If US stock performance is poor relative to foreign, I imagine my pension plan wi...
by asif408
Fri Jun 15, 2018 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with
Replies: 152
Views: 11178

Re: Which boglehead rule do you break--and are ok with

Among the Bogleheads general principles, I pretty much follow all except #5. I mostly do not try to time the market, but in 2016 I shifted a significant portion of my stocks into foreign and emerging markets based on valuation disparities with US stocks. Still holding it, so it's a multi-year market...
by asif408
Mon Jun 11, 2018 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for a prolonged bear market
Replies: 65
Views: 5404

Re: Strategy for a prolonged bear market

No, I think you can only prepare for a prolonged bear market before hand, and even the things you do probably won't help much during the actual bear market. If I was near retirement and stocks were in the process of a good run (as US stocks have been), I would simply own more safe investments and fe...
by asif408
Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else cheap like me and have to put new $s into the asset class that's down the most?
Replies: 23
Views: 2626

Re: Anyone else cheap like me and have to put new $s into the asset class that's down the most?

I think the spirit of what you are doing is good. I just might use a length of time greater than one day to make that kind of decision. Maybe the last year, or two, or three?
by asif408
Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do you Invest in Good Economy like this ?
Replies: 27
Views: 2127

Re: Where do you Invest in Good Economy like this ?

I invest more in bad economies. Bad economies as a whole usually provide better stock market returns going forward than good economies. You just might have to wait a while for it to happen, and some of those bad economies are really bad and could disappear. You are correct. That's the hard lesson w...
by asif408
Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do you Invest in Good Economy like this ?
Replies: 27
Views: 2127

Re: Where do you Invest in Good Economy like this ?

I am looking at and/or own: INPIX, DXQLX, SMPIX, UGPIX, FSPHX, FSMEX, FSRPX, PSGAX, MSEGX. Well diversified, strong mix. This mix appears to be comically undiversified, at least according to Morningstar X-ray. An even mix of all 9 has 60% US stocks, and 80% of the stocks are in 3 sectors (healthcar...
by asif408
Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where do you Invest in Good Economy like this ?
Replies: 27
Views: 2127

Re: Where do you Invest in Good Economy like this ?

I invest more in bad economies. Bad economies as a whole usually provide better stock market returns going forward than good economies. You just might have to wait a while for it to happen, and some of those bad economies are really bad and could disappear.
by asif408
Wed Jun 06, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Suggested HSA Provider
Replies: 9
Views: 572

Re: Suggested HSA Provider

From a pure cost perspective, I suggest Lively HSA. $2.50/month for the investment portion, no other fees besides fund expense ratios for funds you invest in, and access to commission free ETFs through TDAmeritrade. There are no Vanguard ETFs commission free anymore and no Fidelity funds commission ...
by asif408
Mon Jun 04, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it fine to have 100% of portfolio in VTSAX
Replies: 33
Views: 3123

Re: Is it fine to have 100% of portfolio in VTSAX

It is fine, just don't come back here in a few years and post that you are thinking about adding international because it has performed better over the last few years. Make sure your decision is something you will stick with for the long haul. Otherwise, go with Vanguard Total World Stock Market.
by asif408
Wed May 30, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To be or not to be complex, that is the question
Replies: 146
Views: 11706

Re: To be or not to be complex, that is the question

I think that any advantage of complexity is lost by most due to behavioral issues. But I also think some people can handle it, some will do better, and even if they do worse, if it doesn't hurt their long-term returns much, it gives them something to do. Most people who are here have some level of i...
by asif408
Sun May 27, 2018 6:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?
Replies: 40
Views: 2962

Re: If the US market cap was 5% instead of 52%, would the US vs International conversation change?

OP, I've been around here long enough to see that although there are plenty of smart people here, those smart people are also human, and capable of Olympic level mental gymnastics to justify their reasonings. So I don't think you will ever get any sort of capitulation from them regarding internation...
by asif408
Thu May 24, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 34
Views: 2021

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

Well, I want both non-correlation and returns. Precious metals equity funds have pretty disappointing long term performance records. I agree, nedsaid. Just curious what you think about the last 10 years of PME performance vs. the S&P: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timeP...
by asif408
Thu May 24, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 34
Views: 2021

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

perhaps a long term holder of the VGPMX will chime in. This is not a "precious metals" fund in the sense some are taking it. I don't recall when there was a change, but the fund changed at some point. There was a portfolio manager before the current one who diversified the fund a bit to miners of n...
by asif408
Thu May 24, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 34
Views: 2021

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

The big benefit from PME was 2001 and 2002, when it had positive returns when most everything else was down the toilet That’s why it could be a better diversifier. I don’t know of a time when EM was doing well while all other growth assets were down the toilet. Could be. Other areas of the market w...
by asif408
Thu May 24, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?
Replies: 34
Views: 2021

Re: Is Precious Metal Equity a better diversifier than emerging market equity for US investors?

Interestingly, when I change the start date to 2007, the porfolio with PME becomes the worst and the EM portfolio becomes the best. The big benefit from PME was 2001 and 2002, when it had positive returns when most everything else was down the toilet. So I will say that at times, PME could be a bett...
by asif408
Tue May 22, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?
Replies: 25
Views: 3023

Re: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?

we have to take into account that this period starts in 2000, the year the tech bubble which was largely LCG burst. Weightings in that LCG segment were huge in TSM which suffered greatly in 2000 - 2003, while LCG was non-existent in DFLVX. If instead we choose the last 10 years to compare the two, ...
by asif408
Sun May 20, 2018 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International -- VXUS or slice and dice?
Replies: 14
Views: 1401

Re: International -- VXUS or slice and dice?

OP, You have approximately 20% of your total portfolio in international. I have over 85% of my total portfolio in international, and I only own 3 funds: A total international fund, an emerging market index fund, and a EM value index fund. I think your plan is overkill, particularly for the small amo...
by asif408
Wed May 09, 2018 10:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rationale for placing high expected return funds in Roth rather than tIRA
Replies: 15
Views: 1214

Re: Rationale for placing high expected return funds in Roth rather than tIRA

Thanks, both. But @larryswedroe, let's take the simplified example where someone has equal after-tax amounts in a tIRA and a Roth. Assuming a marginal tax rate of 37%, let's say the investor has $1,000 in the Roth and $1,587 in the tIRA [$1,587 = 1,000 / (1 - 37%)]. Let's also make the (overly) sim...
by asif408
Mon May 07, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unprecedented Event
Replies: 67
Views: 9215

Re: Unprecedented Event

Sure, I think an unprecedented event could happen. I took Dr. Bernstein's advice from his book to add some protection against 2 of the deep risks. His belief is that inflation is the greatest risk but also has the most ways to protect yourself. From an inflation protection perspective, I have intern...
by asif408
Sat May 05, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Are International holdings sensible here?
Replies: 7
Views: 707

Re: Are International holdings sensible here?

OP, Did you know Int'l outperformed US for a 9 year period from 2002-2011? See here: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VTSMX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defaultShowName%22%3A%22name%22%2C%22mainSettin...
by asif408
Fri May 04, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lower expected stock returns means lower expected volatility?
Replies: 28
Views: 2152

Re: Lower expected stock returns means lower expected volatility?

I believe you are correct, though I am no expert, so take my 2 cents for what it's worth. Probably the easiest way to lower expected returns is through increased volatility. As you may already be aware, two funds can have the same arithmetic average return but 1 has a lower geometric average return ...
by asif408
Fri May 04, 2018 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using P/E as a Metric
Replies: 13
Views: 1053

Re: Using P/E as a Metric

I will point out a contradiction. As you say, future estimates have not happened yet. Or, more to the point, the future has not happened yet, so we must predict. And yet you tote the power of trailing estimates to predict the future that has not happened yet. So that argument must equally apply to ...
by asif408
Fri May 04, 2018 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Emerging Market Flaws
Replies: 5
Views: 1053

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active’s Emerging Market Flaws

I was wondering whether the FTSE RAFI Emerging Markets Index is a valid value index and if so how it compares with the value strategy used by DFA. I am asking because retail investors can buy a Powershares ETF tracking that index; whereas for DFA one needs an advisor; moreover, for me in Europe the...
by asif408
Thu May 03, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using P/E as a Metric
Replies: 13
Views: 1053

Re: Using P/E as a Metric

It might be more intuitive not to use the P/E ratio but the E/P ratio, or "Earnings Yield". Forward PE is pretty useless IMO but commonly cited, trailing PE is a bit better, and CAPE is a bit better than trailing PE. Mainly trailing PE and CAPE are somewhat useful as medium to long term valuation t...
by asif408
Wed May 02, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using P/E as a Metric
Replies: 13
Views: 1053

Re: Using P/E as a Metric

Which one: forward PE, trailing PE, cyclically adjusted PE, or another? Forward PE is pretty useless IMO but commonly cited, trailing PE is a bit better, and CAPE is a bit better than trailing PE. Mainly trailing PE and CAPE are somewhat useful as medium to long term valuation tools to estimate futu...
by asif408
Wed May 02, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio peepers: what do you do?
Replies: 48
Views: 4010

Re: Portfolio peepers: what do you do?

I've been using it to train myself to buy when something is lagging. For example, one fund was down 20% a year ago from a recent peak while the rest of my funds were up over that same time frame, so I bought some more of the one that was down. It's never a good feeling, but I know it is generally th...
by asif408
Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oldest mutual funds by category
Replies: 8
Views: 786

Re: Oldest mutual funds by category

Spirit Rider wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:50 pm
Just go to various fun supermarkets, sort by inception date and filter by asset allocation.
Great idea, thanks.
by asif408
Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oldest mutual funds by category
Replies: 8
Views: 786

Re: Oldest mutual funds by category

DaftInvestor wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:43 pm
Sorry I don't have an answer but I am very curious:
Why?
Doing some research and haven't had any luck finding that information in one place.
by asif408
Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Oldest mutual funds by category
Replies: 8
Views: 786

Oldest mutual funds by category

Curious if anyone can recommend a good website or place to find the oldest mutual funds still in existence by specific category (if such a place exists). For example, if I want to find the oldest developed markets ex-US fund, precious metals fund, emerging markets value fund, etc. I've done some res...
by asif408
Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Strategy for investing in HSA
Replies: 13
Views: 1085

Re: Strategy for investing in HSA

I use my HSA as a hybrid, so to pay for medical expenses, I keep at least the deductible in cash or short-term bond funds. If you have money outside of the HSA you can use to cover this then in theory you don't have to keep the deductible amount safe. If you want to be more conservative keep 1 year ...
by asif408
Wed Apr 25, 2018 9:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I Bonds now or wait until May?
Replies: 10
Views: 787

Re: I Bonds now or wait until May?

I've had similar trouble searching for the word I bond, maybe someone can offer a suggestion on how to search for I-bonds. The last post I saw determined that the 6 month rate will drop in May from 2.6% or so to 2.2% or so IIRC. Those are ballpark estimates so don't quote me, but I'm sure someone ca...
by asif408
Sun Apr 22, 2018 6:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6210

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

Regarding the low CAPE strategy: You saved 0.12% in expense ratio vs. GVAL. However, have you considered this: When it comes time to rebalance within your strategy as country valuations change, you will incur capital gains tax if your account is taxable, on the whole appreciation of the countries t...
by asif408
Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 21123

Re: Why International again?

The debate centers around whether international is necessary rather than whether it is a poor investment. It provides further diversification, but it does require additional analysis in order to incorporate another fund in one's portfolio. Occam's Razor supports adopting the simplest explanation th...
by asif408
Thu Apr 19, 2018 7:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6210

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

The answer is always the same: What do you know that the market does not know? Victoria I think its a legitimate strategy, the question is are you willing to hold it long enough to benefit and would you be ok if "expected" is not "realized"? I personally do tilt using a low CAPE strategy, which inc...
by asif408
Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1844

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

.... over the 1982-2018 period) had average monthly CAPEs of between 17.6 and 23.8 That's higher than the longer term average in the US, around 16. My suspicion is that these averages since 1982 are distorted by elevated CAPE over the last 2 decades, especially around the last years of the 90s, and...
by asif408
Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1844

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

This simple method has some benefits, for example it avoids making judgements for each country. But clearly it has some problems. For example, each historical country mean may have a different length of history. Global CAPE has probably been elevated for the last 20 years, much like it has in the U...
by asif408
Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?
Replies: 23
Views: 1844

Re: CAPE mean reversion: country specific or to the global average?

I agree with AlohaJoe, and I think that is why you have to look at CAPE relative to its own market. I think using direct comparisons of CAPE country by country without knowledge of the typical CAPE ranges and averages is probably a flawed method. One way to compare CAPE ratios is by using relative r...
by asif408
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1490

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

One more thought. I have seen articles which suggest that CAPE has a 40% predictive power. Which, for such a simple model, is pretty impressive. On the other hand, that leaves 60% unaccounted for, a hole large enough to drive a big truck through. As such, if one country has a CAPE of 30 and another...
by asif408
Wed Apr 11, 2018 2:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1490

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

Thank you for your feedback. This is an interesting point, though I am not sure whether high correlations between markets necessarily imply that there won't be differences in relative performance due to CAPE. For example, even if you have two markets which are 100% correlated, so that they go up at...
by asif408
Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets tilt
Replies: 37
Views: 3365

Re: Emerging markets tilt

I've been about 60% EM since late 2016. My rationale is primarily low valuations relatively to history and currencies. You can see how they got to low valuations in the recent 10 year underperformance compared to the S&P. It also doesn't hurt that EM country currencies on average trade at a discount...
by asif408
Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions
Replies: 25
Views: 1490

Re: Larry Swedroe on CAPE: liked the article but disagree with the conclusions

One thing to consider is that correlations among all stock asset classes began rising in the early to mid-2000s, and between about 2007 and 2011, correlations were about the highest they've been (~0.8-0.9) for most stock asset classes, including things like REITs which in the past had lower correlat...
by asif408
Wed Apr 11, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6210

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

I also found your comments on fund expense useful: in Europe where I live I can get an Emerging Europe ETF for a total cost of 0.2%/yr, and ETFs for Italy and Spain for slightly more; but other countries like South Korea (where I novertheless was lucky to invest last summer) are more expensive so I...
by asif408
Tue Apr 10, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 6210

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

So I am looking instead to understand if there are valid reasons for NOT overweighting EM or Italy and Spain. I haven't understood yet the reason why one should allocate following what the market does. As I mentioned in a post above for example, the Larry Swedroe portfolio too has nothing to do wit...
by asif408
Tue Apr 10, 2018 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative website for those in lower tax brackets?
Replies: 59
Views: 5626

Re: Alternative website for those in lower tax brackets?

As someone in a lower tax bracket, I've learned you can find the information here, you just have to search a little more or specify in your question. Things like the Saver's Credit, tax gain harvesting for 0% long-term capital gains (LTCG), using a Roth instead of 529 for college savings, etc. are t...
by asif408
Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: PPO vs. HDHP w/HSA for Pregnancy decision
Replies: 16
Views: 1127

Re: PPO vs. HDHP w/HSA for Pregnancy decision

Your biggest costs will likely be once your wife goes into the hospital to give birth and any after birth complications. At least that is how ours went. Costs were relatively low leading up to birth (well checkups were covered by HDHP), and the birth occurred in March, so most of our expenses were f...