Search found 1681 matches

by asif408
Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RIP to value investing...
Replies: 40
Views: 4453

Re: RIP to value investing...

Value has been underperforming in the US for a while. But the US is only one country, so why is the focus only on the US? In Emerging Markets it appears the tide turned several years ago, or at least over the last 3 1/2 years: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VEIEX®ion=usa&culture...
by asif408
Mon Jun 24, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Higher risk ETF
Replies: 11
Views: 521

Re: Higher risk ETF

I like gold miners (GDX), any Russian, Turkish, or Brazilian ETFs (ERUS, TUR, EWZ or EWZS). They are still 50%+ below their all time highs in 2007 and have at some point fallen 60-80% between 2011 and today. With all the talk about the length of the US bull market, most of the rest of the world has ...
by asif408
Fri Jun 21, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good times: 2008 vs Now
Replies: 85
Views: 8360

Re: Good times: 2008 vs Now

Consulted my Magic 8 Ball. It said "Reply hazy, try again." So I tried again. It said "Cannot predict now." That's the best I can do. ;) Want to nip this in the bud before this post goes off the rails. I'm not asking for predictions, just what people who are older than, say, 40 think of the economy...
by asif408
Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Excluding International All Together?
Replies: 32
Views: 1914

Re: Excluding International All Together?

I agree with 02nz. Plenty of posts from Bogleheads about 0% international allocations and why they have those. A more interesting (and less asked) question is does anyone exclude US stocks from their allocation, or overweight international relative to world market cap, and why? I also would like to ...
by asif408
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast
Replies: 28
Views: 4018

Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

I have the same question about the frequency. AND also this: how does one avoid short term trading fees? (Assuming rebalancing precious metals is req’d more than annually) The frequency question is one of personal taste. You'll probably get the most benefit by using a rebalancing band criteria with...
by asif408
Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 9648

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

OP, I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but your argument in 2011 would have been the opposite looking back a decade: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2002&firstMonth=3&endYear=2011&lastMonth=4&calendarAligned=true&endDate=06%2F16%2F2019&initialAmoun...
by asif408
Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?
Replies: 161
Views: 8859

Re: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?

I invest in no separate REIT fund (though I did until 2015), and only have whatever is in my index funds. I have no separate allocation to REITs because I don't consider their valuations to be compelling and they have outperformed most everything since the late 1990s. I only add separate allocation...
by asif408
Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?
Replies: 161
Views: 8859

Re: What percentage of total portfolio in REIT's do you have? Why?

I invest in no separate REIT fund (though I did until 2015), and only have whatever is in my index funds. I have no separate allocation to REITs because I don't consider their valuations to be compelling and they have outperformed most everything since the late 1990s. I only add separate allocations...
by asif408
Thu Jun 13, 2019 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High net worth individual seeks portfolio advice
Replies: 81
Views: 8560

Re: High net worth individual seeks portfolio advice

OP, it seems to me that you would be well served with a 25% allocation to stocks and 75% allocation to tax-free (e.g. municipal) bonds via a fund. Even if stocks dropped by 50%, your portfolio would only decline by 12.5%, and that's assuming that your bonds didn't gain value, which they likely woul...
by asif408
Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3-fund portfolio: Home (Domestic) Bias?
Replies: 5
Views: 656

Re: 3-fund portfolio: Home (Domestic) Bias?

Reasons listed I've seen include, but are not limited to: - The US is much safer and has better rules and laws that almost any other country and will for the foreseeable future :?: - Currency risk (as we all know the dollar has never and will never significantly depreciate for any period of time aga...
by asif408
Wed Jun 12, 2019 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) in a Taxable Account - Good or Bad Idea?
Replies: 5
Views: 781

Re: Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP) in a Taxable Account - Good or Bad Idea?

I think it depends on your situation. If you aren't planning to spend the dividend money, I find it simpler to reinvest. Because if you're going to reinvest anyway, it limits any potential delays in that process, as time in the market is one of the most important determinants of returns. I don't wor...
by asif408
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash to investments
Replies: 31
Views: 2609

Re: Cash to investments

Great news, OP! There has already been a correction in stocks that began last year, and we are still in it for foreign developed and emerging markets: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf/chart.action?t=VTI®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22...
by asif408
Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are Small Caps falling?
Replies: 113
Views: 9385

Re: why are Small Caps falling?

From 8/31/1976 to present the average actual small cap fund has outperformed VFINX by about 1.3% per year. Compounded over 42 years, that's a pretty hefty premium that required no special skill to harvest. Avoiding active manager risk isn't hard, it just requires owning funds from more than one man...
by asif408
Mon Jun 10, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are Small Caps falling?
Replies: 113
Views: 9385

Re: why are Small Caps falling?

So everything before 1990 is research data, not actual fund results. If you can find an actual small cap fund that outperformed over that time frame I would be interested to see it. According to Morningstar, there are eight small cap mutual funds currently in existence that also existed when Vangua...
by asif408
Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are Small Caps falling?
Replies: 113
Views: 9385

Re: why are Small Caps falling?

/1/1977 so that the period 1977-1983 where small caps exploded is included in the backtest, NAESX still underperformed: A Asset backtest in Portfolio Visualizer shows that Small Caps most definitely beat large caps between 1/1/1977-date and by a HEFTY margin CAGR of 12.54% for Small vs 10.83% for L...
by asif408
Fri Jun 07, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: why are Small Caps falling?
Replies: 113
Views: 9385

Re: why are Small Caps falling?

To clarify I meant, at the very least Small will not significantly underperform Large in a long time frame (10+ years). By significant I mean for example I think it's unlikely that over a decade Large will return CAGR 9% and Small with return CAGR 2%. It is speculation of course based on what has h...
by asif408
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Need help with International Fund Decision
Replies: 9
Views: 557

Re: Need help with International Fund Decision

My thoughts are don't chase recent performance and go with the cheaper fund. For all you know, as soon as you switch the cheaper fund will begin outperforming, then you not only lose to the ER but you also lose to performance. At least if you go with the cheaper fund you'll never lose WRT cost. If y...
by asif408
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: This market just scares me...
Replies: 43
Views: 4174

Re: This market just scares me...

CrazyTexan, You might be comforted to know not all markets have gone up since 2007. Here is a graph for you: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf/chart.action?t=VTI®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Afalse%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3...
by asif408
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US stocks still look better than anywhere else
Replies: 100
Views: 7582

Re: US stocks still look better than anywhere else

Well, it is true as a market cap whole the rest of the world has performed worse. But not all countries have in the last several years, particularly in the emerging markets. For instance, the Russian and Brazilian stock markets have handily outperformed the US stock market since January 2016. Even t...
by asif408
Wed Jun 05, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Being a conservative investor is not always a bad thing
Replies: 30
Views: 2260

Re: Being a conservative investor is not always a bad thing

Can we see a chart of the previous 20 years.
by asif408
Tue Jun 04, 2019 8:14 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do you regret taking a pay cut for quality of life?
Replies: 68
Views: 7377

Re: Do you regret taking a pay cut for quality of life?

I didn't take a pay cut, but changed into a career where my top earning potential is 1/2 - 1/3 of the previous career. I know if I had stayed in my previous career I'd be making six figures at this point in my life and probably be like most of the posters here, worrying about how I can't find an acc...
by asif408
Mon Jun 03, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to First Invest HSA Contribution $3,500
Replies: 11
Views: 704

Re: How to First Invest HSA Contribution $3,500

I like this idea for the 4 funds. I think a mix like this will help me get more comfortable managing, rebalancing periodically, and getting a finger-tip feel for handling this account. But what AA would you do for these? SPTM: 60% SPDW: 20% SPEM: 10% SPAB: 10% or SPTM: 40% SPDW: 30% SPEM: 20% SPAB:...
by asif408
Fri May 31, 2019 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to First Invest HSA Contribution $3,500
Replies: 11
Views: 704

Re: How to First Invest HSA Contribution $3,500

As another poster mentioned, options 1 and 2 are off the table because they aren't commission free at TDA. Personally, I'd use one fund for such a small amount. However, if you don't yet trust your emotions go with the 4th option, it will let you stay the course easier, even if it means a slightly m...
by asif408
Fri May 31, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does one need a bank account anymore?
Replies: 60
Views: 4292

Re: Does one need a bank account anymore?

I don't think you absolutely "need" one. I do have one, FWIW, mainly because it doesn't cost me anything and I'm old enough to remember the days when plastic wasn't as widely accepted. Occasionally it is nice to have some cash, or be able to quickly access cash from the local ATM, but I do find thes...
by asif408
Fri May 31, 2019 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Home Country Bias Ubiquitous
Replies: 37
Views: 4521

Re: "Lucky Guess?"

He had a 50-50 chance of being correct in predicting that US stocks would outperform non-US stocks. I would humbly suggest that it may well have been a lucky guess. protagonist: If you read Mr. Bogle's original 1999 edition of Common Sense on Mutual Funds you can read a 19 page chapter "On Global I...
by asif408
Thu May 30, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I encourage my kids to work in high school/college?
Replies: 204
Views: 11321

Re: Should I encourage my kids to work in high school/college?

I'm on board with the philosophy that summer jobs are good assuming the kids aren't in summer school. My own experience was working during summers in high school and throughout college, except for my final year when I took summer classes, and I'm glad I didn't have to work during school years in hig...
by asif408
Thu May 30, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to the mean: Charts please?
Replies: 6
Views: 780

Re: Reversion to the mean: Charts please?

You can literally just plug the funds in on Morningstar's charts and compare. Here are few examples: Precious Metals equities dramatically outperformed the Vanguard 500 index from 1976-1994: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VFINX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3...
by asif408
Thu May 30, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Inflation - Targeted into Submission?
Replies: 22
Views: 1829

Re: Global Inflation - Targeted into Submission?

I don't believe there's much argument that the dominant population trends in the world now (and for decades to come) are falling fertility rates, slowing population growth and population aging. Some research suggests that population aging may be inflationary at some point, but this is a distinctly ...
by asif408
Wed May 29, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE with tapered weights
Replies: 10
Views: 651

Re: CAPE with tapered weights

The problem with comparing CAPE ratios over time is that it doesn't account for interest rate differences over time. In order to judge something as expensive, you need to ask the question "compared to what?". Sure, CAPE might be 28 or 29, but last I checked the 10-year treasury was selling for 44x ...
by asif408
Fri May 24, 2019 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Article: Think Before You Fish for Bargains in Chinese Stocks
Replies: 50
Views: 3996

Re: WSJ Article: Think Before You Fish for Bargains in Chinese Stocks

I don't know what the next 10 years will bring for China, but assuming you are 100% stock and hold a Total World Stock Market index fund (which most investors here don't, they hold less than world market cap weight in international), you only have 3% or so of your holdings in China. So whatever Chin...
by asif408
Fri May 24, 2019 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Aggressive Roth IRA fund suggestions
Replies: 10
Views: 841

Re: Aggressive Roth IRA fund suggestions

The investments that have done poorly over the last decade could continue to do poorly for two more decades, and the ones that have done well could continue to do well for two more decades, though (fairly unlikely, but still). Or worst for 1 year then best for 1 year, back and forth and so on. True...
by asif408
Fri May 24, 2019 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who killed value?
Replies: 23
Views: 2557

Re: Who killed value?

Value has actually outperformed growth in many overseas markets since January 2016, particularly in the emerging markets.
by asif408
Fri May 24, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Aggressive Roth IRA fund suggestions
Replies: 10
Views: 841

Re: Aggressive Roth IRA fund suggestions

I think that your biggest investment opportunity is to upgrade your investment strategy and stick to it. I'm seeing dramatic swings in your underlying investment strategy... In the past six months you've sold your 3-fund portfolio, bought individual stocks, realized you didn't want to be buying ind...
by asif408
Wed May 22, 2019 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't add currency risk on top of equity risk
Replies: 68
Views: 4791

Re: Don't add currency risk on top of equity risk

So OP, do you own foreign equities? And if so, why?
by asif408
Wed May 22, 2019 10:26 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation for HSA
Replies: 5
Views: 244

Re: Asset Allocation for HSA

If you don't plan to tap the HSA for actual health care expenses anytime soon, I'd just dump it in one fund (for simplicity), and adjust your asset allocation elsewhere if needed. Looks like that would probably be a US stock fund or bond fund, since you don't have international in your HSA. If you t...
by asif408
Wed May 22, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moving VFIAX to VTSAX
Replies: 5
Views: 639

Re: Moving VFIAX to VTSAX

It doesn't matter. But I will say short-term timing is one of the worst ideas. The shorter the time frame you are out of the market the better.
by asif408
Wed May 22, 2019 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Measuring Value In Forecasts
Replies: 40
Views: 2142

Re: Larry Swedroe: Measuring Value In Forecasts

My first thought while reading Larry's article was to identify some of the 20% correct pundits and always do the opposite. :D I forgot who mentioned it, but someone did an analysis similar to that with the worst investment newsletters (basically doing the opposite of what they said) and had good su...
by asif408
Wed May 22, 2019 8:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Measuring Value In Forecasts
Replies: 40
Views: 2142

Re: Larry Swedroe: Measuring Value In Forecasts

Sounds to me like we are about three years away from thinking about a "Swedroe shuffle." We are at 1994 levels and you didn't switch to Value stocks until 1997. Of course, it took another three years or so after that for Large Growth to crash. I am in agreement that we aren't seeing valuation extre...
by asif408
Tue May 21, 2019 8:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Measuring Value In Forecasts
Replies: 40
Views: 2142

Re: Larry Swedroe: Measuring Value In Forecasts

Pundits publishing forecasts in the news never give error bars or confidence intervals on their predictions. The lack of a pundit giving any discussion of such bounds is probably the quickest and easiest way to tell that a forecast is worthless and said pundit not worth listening to. Not to defend ...
by asif408
Mon May 20, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor ETFs For Diversification Or “Diworsification”
Replies: 126
Views: 6117

Re: Factor ETFs For Diversification Or “Diworsification”

Personally, I'm in the camp that factors aren't anything special. The fact that nearly all of these factors that are focused on are investable makes me believe that, even if they did offer a long-term premium in the past, there will be no long term premium to any of them in the future. I do, believe...
by asif408
Mon May 20, 2019 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car repairs: what to do next time
Replies: 42
Views: 2602

Re: Car repairs: what to do next time

That doesn't sound unreasonable. The transmission flush and the cleaning of the fuel injectors sound debatable without knowing more about your car maintenance history, and those are typically services they try to upsell those along with routine maintenance items like oil changes and tire rotations. ...
by asif408
Mon May 20, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations of International Equities vs. US Equities
Replies: 31
Views: 2887

Re: Valuations of International Equities vs. US Equities

The divergence in valuations has not gone unnoticed, it's mentioned on this board on a daily basis, it gets mentioned on CNBC and other financial news, there are tons of blogs and articles out there suggesting such. Vanguard's "Economic Outlook" and other prognosticators forecast lower returns on U...
by asif408
Fri May 17, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 173
Views: 17779

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

If we're looking for best performing country, why not go 100% Australia? It's been the winner since 1900: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/research/publications/csri-summary-edition-credit-suisse-global-investment-returns-yearbook-2019.pdf If you're going to invest ...
by asif408
Fri May 17, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ESA Asset Allocation
Replies: 2
Views: 136

Re: ESA Asset Allocation

Without addressing the vehicle for the savings, I think the allocation you've selected is perfectly fine.
by asif408
Fri May 17, 2019 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does stock allocation truly matter?
Replies: 61
Views: 5355

Re: Does stock allocation truly matter?

I would say it matters less the more you can save, and I think because most of the posters here are high income and save much more relative to the overall population, that statement makes the rounds around here a lot and is likely generally true to a large percentage of the posters here. For instanc...
by asif408
Wed May 15, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 210
Views: 10682

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

With 154 responses so far, the mean and the median is 30% ex-U.S. (with market weight counted as 50/50). Might be off by a point or two. Just curious if you calculated how many here have overweighted international relative to US based on the global market cap. From what I can see, it's only a handf...
by asif408
Wed May 15, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nobody knows nothing and AA
Replies: 19
Views: 2220

Re: Nobody knows nothing and AA

OP, this is one way to think about it...it’s not only being able to know something, but it’s to know something others don’t. So think about it...if you can think of something, would the investing populace also know the same info, then it’s already priced in. You have to have info others don’t have....
by asif408
Mon May 13, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast
Replies: 28
Views: 4018

Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

However, I thought the question about which areas are expensive wasn’t fully answered (around the 31:30 min mark). The answer from “50,000 feet above” was US stocks, which is a smart way of putting it. Honestly, I think he's spelled it out in most of his books and writings and in previous interview...
by asif408
Fri May 10, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3578

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

My suggestion would be to vary your asset allocation among stock asset classes based on CAPE, not necessarily between stocks and bonds based on CAPE. The evidence supporting the former is stronger than the latter. Interesting-- can you share more about this? Are you thinking economic sectors (utili...