Search found 1916 matches

by asif408
Mon May 25, 2020 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P500 vs World Performance
Replies: 145
Views: 8651

Re: S&P500 vs World Performance

Total world market index funds are currently 57% US and 43% non-US. I can understand if someone said they wanted to invest 57% of their stocks in the US market, and the rest in an international fund. And *maintain* that fixed allocation. But I have a hard time understanding the logic of a total wor...
by asif408
Wed May 20, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Move Total International from Roth IRA to 401k/403b?
Replies: 20
Views: 641

Re: Move Total International from Roth IRA to 401k/403b?

mc2 wrote:
Wed May 20, 2020 3:36 pm
My reasoning is that I might enjoy greater returns from the US market and enjoy the tax-free Roth IRA withdrawals, vs. taxed withdrawals from my 401k.
What is your reasoning based on? For instance, does the last 10 years performance play a role in it?
by asif408
Wed May 20, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold vs Mining Stocks?
Replies: 17
Views: 1239

Re: Gold vs Mining Stocks?

The reason you are hearing bull talk is because gold miners are already outperforming, they've double since September 2018 while US stocks have gone nowhere: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VFIAX&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%2...
by asif408
Wed May 20, 2020 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40659

Re: Why international?

I'm just wondering if people think, as a result, that it makes sense to question the risk-reduction benefits of adding currently cheaper ex-us equities. Does adding them decrease or increase risk? How are we supposed to measure this? If low price indicates high risk, then how are we reducing risk b...
by asif408
Wed May 20, 2020 8:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40659

Re: Why international?

It's not accurate to assume lower price = higher risk = higher expected return. Using that logic, currently cheap stock sectors like apparel retailers, bookstores, and newspapers would be expected to have a higher return than currently expensive stocks like FAANGM. Yes, this reasoning is exactly wh...
by asif408
Tue May 19, 2020 4:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40659

Re: Why international?

I completely agree that such a free-lunch view of the U.S. is completely delusional. I do, however, believe that your description of Bernstein's theory (which admittedly is also my reading) must be an oversimplification. If investing were so easy that we could all just buy the cheapest (riskiest) a...
by asif408
Tue May 19, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40659

Re: Why international?

The issue I'm trying to address is whether the EMH or any other popular theory maintains that price can be used to measure risk. As in, the more expensive, the less risky. The less expensive, the more risky. I think this may be an oversimplification, but from what I've read of Bill Bernstein, and f...
by asif408
Tue May 19, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9352

Re: International market recovery

OP here. Excellent and informative debate. Still struggling with ex-US allocation. With appreciation for the conceptual value of diversification into ex-US, I gravitate towards this balanced allocation. However, let me play devil's advocate: 1) There's a disagreement about how well ex-US has actual...
by asif408
Tue May 19, 2020 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued
Replies: 45
Views: 3861

Re: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued

Yes, there are some that are. But there are many that aren't, especially the world's developed markets, where CAPE is at 21.6. StarCapital has a good overview of CAPE of the world's markets. Right, but that CAPE ratio for developed markets includes the US, which is over half of developed markets. T...
by asif408
Mon May 18, 2020 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued
Replies: 45
Views: 3861

Re: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued

I'm not convinced that the U.S. is all that high. It's high relative to most of the 20th century, but I've not seen a convincing argument that CAPE should be the same today as it was 100 years ago. Ok, so let's say it's not that high in the US. What about CAPE ratios outside the US, what do they lo...
by asif408
Mon May 18, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued
Replies: 45
Views: 3861

Re: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued

I'm not convinced that the U.S. is all that high. It's high relative to most of the 20th century, but I've not seen a convincing argument that CAPE should be the same today as it was 100 years ago. Ok, so let's say it's not that high in the US. What about CAPE ratios outside the US, what do they lo...
by asif408
Mon May 18, 2020 3:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40659

Re: Why international?

After reading multiple threads discussing US vs international and, now, this one at 11 pages, I'm really curious. Has anyone been convinced to 'switch sides'? I think I'm only aware of one individual (I think dmcmahon is rethinking his international). As for myself (after reading through some very ...
by asif408
Mon May 18, 2020 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued
Replies: 45
Views: 3861

Re: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued

Reasons have been offered by Larry Swedroe and others as to why CAPE should be higher today than it was for most of the 20th century, most of which revolve around stocks being less opaque and risky than perhaps they once were. Nonetheless, the general trend seems to be that higher valuations lead t...
by asif408
Mon May 18, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued
Replies: 45
Views: 3861

Re: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued

1789 wrote:
Mon May 18, 2020 1:28 pm
Any idea what was CAPE before 1999 crash?
Not willthrill81 here, but looks like 40-45: https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
by asif408
Mon May 18, 2020 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued
Replies: 45
Views: 3861

Re: Wall Street says stocks are very overvalued

The problem is that there is no objective metric to determine when stocks are overvalued. That said, when a valuation metric like CAPE is up around 90, like Japanese stocks were at their peak, it seems very safe to call that grossly overvalued. But the CAPE for U.S. isn't even remotely close to tha...
by asif408
Fri May 15, 2020 4:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40659

Re: Why international?

Agreed. Just like good companies don't always make good stocks and bad companies don't always make bad stocks, why should we expect that good countries will always have the best stock returns and "bad" countries will have the worst stock returns? I think it's a big mistake to make that assumption. ...
by asif408
Fri May 15, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What NOW!! [Portfolio help]
Replies: 38
Views: 2261

Re: What NOW!! [Portfolio help]

I will say I have way less than you, so take my advice for what it's worth, but if I was in your situation I wouldn't beat myself up too bad. Whatever you sold on February 28th probably isn't quite back to even, and whatever you sold on March 17th, yes, it's been a loss, but also a good learning les...
by asif408
Fri May 15, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL
Replies: 245
Views: 8520

Re: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL

whodidntante wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 8:55 pm
Maybe if they send a telegram the people who still care about this will get it, too.
Sorry I missed the telegram, I was on my horse and buggy trying the get to message out.
by asif408
Fri May 15, 2020 7:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why hold these funds - EM vs Intl - VWO vs VXUS
Replies: 16
Views: 792

Re: Why hold these funds - EM vs Intl - VWO vs VXUS

Go back, on a magic carpet ride, to 2007 and look back 5 years to their performance from 2002-2007, then compare that to you US stock holding and tell me if your answer is any different.
by asif408
Thu May 14, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9352

Re: International market recovery

Thanks, asif408. That does help clarify the effect of rebalancing. But when I run the models with the US Market and the Global ex-US Market as assets rather than the comparable Vanguard index funds, I consistently get substantially lower returns on portfolios with ex-US allocations with multiple ti...
by asif408
Thu May 14, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9352

Re: International market recovery

Someone looking back in 2008 might have said "it doesn't matter much how much I have in US or Int'l". Actually as recently as 2013 or 2014 one might have said that, returns were about equal from around the low in 2002 or 2003 until around 2013/2014, when US caught up to international and then moved...
by asif408
Thu May 14, 2020 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9352

Re: International market recovery

But as arcticpineapplecorp pointed out earlier, this assumes that you've made a single lump sum investment 15 years ago and haven't invested since. Most of us aren't doing that. Presumably, you'd be rebalancing annually or so, which would result in selling a portion of those funds at elevated price...
by asif408
Wed May 13, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9352

Re: International market recovery

If we were to simply pick the Top 5 ex-US countries and equal weight them for ex-US exposure, then that would possibly perform more or less similar to an all country ex-US, or better in fact. One could even argue that will eliminate a lot of other countries you do not need exposure to, especially i...
by asif408
Wed May 13, 2020 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone considering Commodity futures?
Replies: 16
Views: 689

Re: Anyone considering Commodity futures?

I agree with many of the points made above. Commodity funds are dominated by oil/energy. We've seen contango in those markets given a decade of flat or falling oil prices. With such low current demand, storage is definitely an issue. We are currently in an environment of low to non-existent inflati...
by asif408
Tue May 12, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40659

Re: Why international?

I wasn't cherry picking... I used the full life of the International fund from it's inception date 11/29/2010 to yesterday's market close... you are cherry picking. Are you going to cite fund performance from as time period prior to it's existence? Beware of data that is obviously out of sink with ...
by asif408
Tue May 12, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40659

Re: Why international?

Good post, CJ. Diversification can be infinite, and with each new level of diversification it just gets to be more complicated, and is not necessarily better for the portfolio in the end. In the last ten years, VOO outperformed VTI and VXUS. Now let's, say there is a decade when VXUS outperforms VO...
by asif408
Tue May 12, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International market recovery
Replies: 146
Views: 9352

Re: International market recovery

Any strong thoughts about recovery of or long-term effects on international markets vs. US after this event-driven bear market? I prefer weak facts to strong opinions. Here are my weak facts: 1) From the Bogleheads own Wiki page (which hasn't been updated with charts since 2008): https://www.bogleh...
by asif408
Tue May 12, 2020 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

.... So I don't really see the evidence you speak of. :?: You didn't provide an answer to the question my post was about: Why do international stocks have such lower valuation than U.S. Stocks? Don't know. Why were REITs and EM stocks valued lower in the late 1990s? Why were international stocks va...
by asif408
Tue May 12, 2020 8:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

According to Yahoo, you can get 3.59% dividend yield with total international vs. only 1.87% yield with total US. Does that mean that the expected return is higher for international than U.S.? Despite the lower valuation, international has lost a lot more since the pandemic bear market started. So ...
by asif408
Mon May 11, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA
Replies: 48
Views: 3518

Re: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA

I love a good golf analogy. One time I whipped my 4 iron one handed as far as I could, which was much farther than I thought I could throw it. It spun around a million times and hit one of the golf carts behind the clubhouse. I never went to retrieve it and I still don't have a 4 iron. I hate low i...
by asif408
Mon May 11, 2020 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

The US wasn't the top-returning market of the last century - it lost to South Africa and Australia, for example. Will it be at or near the top this century? A lot has changed. I don't know. I remain diversified. The trick isn't to pit 'US' against 'ex-US' as a category, but to think about what it m...
by asif408
Mon May 11, 2020 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA
Replies: 48
Views: 3518

Re: I am always slightly disappointed with my AA

I feel the same way about my golf game. Always some part that is working and some that is not, it's extremely rare when I'm driving, putting, chipping, and hitting my irons well on the same day. Some days I want to through my putter into the lake, other days it's the driver. As long as I don't throu...
by asif408
Mon May 11, 2020 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 95
Views: 18786

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

If one expands the graph to September 26, 2018 when the VPGMX fund switched to new strategy, the Vanguard fund has a loss of about 15% while the comparison precious metal funds from USAA and Fidelity have gains in the 80% range. It truly has been a case Vanguard bailing on an out of favor sector at...
by asif408
Fri May 08, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Information available to all versus the interpretation of information
Replies: 2
Views: 140

Re: Information available to all versus the interpretation of information

Is the concept of the potential or perceived edge in how the information or data is interpreted? “No one knows nothing”. Does this mean no one can interpret data better than the herd as a whole. That's true in most areas of life, as far as I can tell. It's obvious to me people interpret data differ...
by asif408
Fri May 08, 2020 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 95
Views: 18786

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

Just an update: the reinvented Vanguard fund has continued to underperform, especially during the most recent bear market: https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/VGPMX#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheSIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5IjoxLCJjYW5kbGVXaWR0aCI6MTkuMDUyNjMxNTc4OTQ3MzcsInZvbHVtZVVuZGVybGF5Ijp0cnVlLCJhZGoiOnRydWUsImNyb3N...
by asif408
Thu May 07, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Investment strategy from this point forward]
Replies: 50
Views: 2063

Re: Coronavirus economy

Im simply asking for a short term strategy .... You lost me right after this statement. If you need a short-term investment and you're investing in stocks, by definition there are no guarantees. Good luck. I'd stick money under the mattress or in a savings account if I need it for the short term.
by asif408
Thu May 07, 2020 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

Of course, and if you started in 1995, you'd have an over 500% return in the US versus 104% for emerging markets. It's a crapshoot. I own VEA/VWO knowing it's a crapshoot, but that doesn't mean I don't question why I own them. Not really a crapshoot. EM valuations were high in 1994/1995 relative to...
by asif408
Wed May 06, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total market or S&P 500?
Replies: 44
Views: 3571

Re: Total market or S&P 500?

billthecat wrote:
Wed May 06, 2020 2:13 pm
it doesn't matter / stop thinking so much
This is the answer.
by asif408
Wed May 06, 2020 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

While convential wisdom would say that emerging markets like China, India and Brazil, it has not translated into their stock markets fastly outperforming US markets. If you compare FXI, INDA, and SPY going back to 2005, the SPY still would have given you a better return, but you would have trailed ...
by asif408
Tue May 05, 2020 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

I saw a video recently but I can't find it or even remember who was presenting it. It explained that because the USD is the world's reserve currency, it causes capital to flow to the US and will also cause the dollar to keep rising in value compared to other currencies. This process will continue u...
by asif408
Mon May 04, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dca the TQQQ
Replies: 8
Views: 486

Re: Dca the TQQQ

MotoTrojan wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 2:54 pm
asif408 wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 2:52 pm
Now if you're talking energy stocks, those have crashed recently.
Buy DIG (2x Daily Oil & Gas ETF, I dare you :twisted:.
I'm not quite that brave, but maybe OP is.
by asif408
Mon May 04, 2020 2:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dca the TQQQ
Replies: 8
Views: 486

Re: Dca the TQQQ

When was there are big crash in QQQ recently? Going from a high of $230/share to $215/share is not exactly a crash. Going from $110/share to $20/share like it did in the early 2000s, now that's a crash. If it gets down to $50/share or so from here then you can officially call it a crash in my book. ...
by asif408
Mon May 04, 2020 12:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What would you invest 50K in?
Replies: 25
Views: 2428

Re: What would you invest 50K in?

I’m not looking to take financial advice from anyone online. You don’t have to worry about me. But I do have some available investment cash. I’m young, can afford to take risks though not looking for anything especially risky. Just wondering, if you had 50K today to invest, what would you do? I wou...
by asif408
Mon May 04, 2020 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?
Replies: 222
Views: 12980

Re: Is Disney the most tempting value stock?

Does anyone else consider Disney a no-brainer value buy? To me, being a value investor means acknowledging that if want to win in value, you are much more likely to win by buying value companies in aggregate and not individually, as more value companies do underperform more growth companies, it's j...
by asif408
Mon May 04, 2020 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

Re: American exceptionalism

Problem is that INTL has been cheaper for a long time without any means reversion. Possibly this is due to INTL's increased allocation to market sectors that have long suffered like financials, basic materials, consumer defensive, energy, etc., which have produced little or no profit growth in the ...
by asif408
Fri Apr 24, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?
Replies: 137
Views: 11383

Re: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?

Doing fine here. Did a partial tIRA to Roth conversion that worked out well, rebalanced a little bit, yawned a few times. Still sticking to my <10% US stocks no US bonds portfolio. Waiting for international developed and EM value stocks to shine. In the meantime, my gold and silver mining stocks ar...
by asif408
Thu Apr 23, 2020 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?
Replies: 137
Views: 11383

Re: How are the "100% Stocks" people doing?

Doing fine here. Did a partial tIRA to Roth conversion that worked out well, rebalanced a little bit, yawned a few times. Still sticking to my <10% US stocks no US bonds portfolio. Waiting for international developed and EM value stocks to shine. In the meantime, my gold and silver mining stocks are...
by asif408
Tue Apr 21, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Did I Royally [mess up] spending $450 on USO today? Bought at $3.84 a piece
Replies: 38
Views: 4976

Re: Did I Royally [mess up] spending $450 on USO today? Bought at $3.84 a piece

Personally I'd buy 3 or 4 shares if I felt the urge, but no more than that. I figure worst case I would lose $12 and best case I quadruple my money in a few months and buy a nice dinner for the family. But I don't have much more faith in the USO ETF than that. Plus the fact that they just changed th...
by asif408
Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 636
Views: 40659

Re: Why international?

Can you tell me how international did from 1970-1994 relative to the US? Just curious. What can you use to test this? There is EAFE data going back to 1969. There is also individual country data going back, depending on the country, even farther back than 1969. You can also look at international or...