Search found 1641 matches

by asif408
Mon May 20, 2019 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor ETFs For Diversification Or “Diworsification”
Replies: 111
Views: 4360

Re: Factor ETFs For Diversification Or “Diworsification”

Personally, I'm in the camp that factors aren't anything special. The fact that nearly all of these factors that are focused on are investable makes me believe that, even if they did offer a long-term premium in the past, there will be no long term premium to any of them in the future. I do, believe...
by asif408
Mon May 20, 2019 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car repairs: what to do next time
Replies: 40
Views: 2182

Re: Car repairs: what to do next time

That doesn't sound unreasonable. The transmission flush and the cleaning of the fuel injectors sound debatable without knowing more about your car maintenance history, and those are typically services they try to upsell those along with routine maintenance items like oil changes and tire rotations. ...
by asif408
Mon May 20, 2019 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuations of International Equities vs. US Equities
Replies: 27
Views: 2180

Re: Valuations of International Equities vs. US Equities

The divergence in valuations has not gone unnoticed, it's mentioned on this board on a daily basis, it gets mentioned on CNBC and other financial news, there are tons of blogs and articles out there suggesting such. Vanguard's "Economic Outlook" and other prognosticators forecast lower returns on U...
by asif408
Fri May 17, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?
Replies: 117
Views: 8383

Re: VTSAX or VTWAX over the next 35 years?

If we're looking for best performing country, why not go 100% Australia? It's been the winner since 1900: https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/research/publications/csri-summary-edition-credit-suisse-global-investment-returns-yearbook-2019.pdf If you're going to invest ...
by asif408
Fri May 17, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: ESA Asset Allocation
Replies: 2
Views: 129

Re: ESA Asset Allocation

Without addressing the vehicle for the savings, I think the allocation you've selected is perfectly fine.
by asif408
Fri May 17, 2019 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does stock allocation truly matter?
Replies: 55
Views: 4329

Re: Does stock allocation truly matter?

I would say it matters less the more you can save, and I think because most of the posters here are high income and save much more relative to the overall population, that statement makes the rounds around here a lot and is likely generally true to a large percentage of the posters here. For instanc...
by asif408
Wed May 15, 2019 10:38 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 200
Views: 9748

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

With 154 responses so far, the mean and the median is 30% ex-U.S. (with market weight counted as 50/50). Might be off by a point or two. Just curious if you calculated how many here have overweighted international relative to US based on the global market cap. From what I can see, it's only a handf...
by asif408
Wed May 15, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nobody knows nothing and AA
Replies: 19
Views: 2199

Re: Nobody knows nothing and AA

OP, this is one way to think about it...it’s not only being able to know something, but it’s to know something others don’t. So think about it...if you can think of something, would the investing populace also know the same info, then it’s already priced in. You have to have info others don’t have....
by asif408
Mon May 13, 2019 10:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast
Replies: 24
Views: 3132

Re: William Bernstein first guest on new weekly Morningstar Podcast

However, I thought the question about which areas are expensive wasn’t fully answered (around the 31:30 min mark). The answer from “50,000 feet above” was US stocks, which is a smart way of putting it. Honestly, I think he's spelled it out in most of his books and writings and in previous interview...
by asif408
Fri May 10, 2019 1:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3456

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

My suggestion would be to vary your asset allocation among stock asset classes based on CAPE, not necessarily between stocks and bonds based on CAPE. The evidence supporting the former is stronger than the latter. Interesting-- can you share more about this? Are you thinking economic sectors (utili...
by asif408
Thu May 09, 2019 11:57 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?
Replies: 71
Views: 3456

Re: CAPE-based asset allocation strategy?

IMO, your method is way too complicated, and you are focusing on the wrong things. My suggestion would be to vary your asset allocation among stock asset classes based on CAPE, not necessarily between stocks and bonds based on CAPE. The evidence supporting the former is stronger than the latter. Als...
by asif408
Thu May 09, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?
Replies: 200
Views: 9748

Re: What is your U.S./ex-U.S. stock allocation?

10/90, with about 2/3 of the 90% international in EM value stocks.
by asif408
Wed May 08, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: point of maximal pessimism for international investing
Replies: 66
Views: 5332

Re: point of maximal pessimism for international investing

IT WAS A JOKE. IT WAS SATIRE. I am quite sure Bogle did not advocate finding companies to invest in that ONLY do business in the USA, refusing to accept business outside of the USA. That would be a ridiculous limiting factor. I thought it was funny to take some arguments here to the extreme: higher...
by asif408
Fri May 03, 2019 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2386

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

You could contribute to CAPE markets less than 10, like Russia and Turkey. I think even Spain, South Korea, and Poland are below 15. Why not some of those? Most of them have fallen 40, 50 , and 60%+ during this decade. At least you aren't buying at the top.
by asif408
Thu May 02, 2019 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “If Some Part Of Your Portfolio Isn’t Performing Poorly, You Are Not Properly Diversified”
Replies: 34
Views: 2432

Re: “If Some Part Of Your Portfolio Isn’t Performing Poorly, You Are Not Properly Diversified”

It seems more applicable to things like endowments and pension funds that hold many different asset classes. It depends what you define as "poorly". If you have a 3 fund portfolio there are certainly periods where all three components go up and I wouldn't start adding timber or gold to my portfolio...
by asif408
Thu May 02, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard International Bond Fund puzzles me
Replies: 5
Views: 783

Re: Vanguard International Bond Fund puzzles me

I attribute most of the International Bond fund outperformance to a rising US dollar. For most of 2017, which was a time of a falling US dollar, the international bond fund underperformed, but during most of its existence the dollar has risen against other currencies. I believe you will see the oppo...
by asif408
Thu May 02, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?
Replies: 57
Views: 3190

Re: Do You Believe 10 Years Return Data Is Just Noise?

Dave, I think 10 years is somewhat useful, but not in the way most people look at it. For instance, I look at the last 10 years performance of, for instance, foreign developed and emerging markets large value stocks, gold stocks and global energy stocks (losers over the last decade) and project bett...
by asif408
Thu May 02, 2019 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best investment in HSA
Replies: 19
Views: 1218

Re: Best investment in HSA

I currently have a Fidelity HSA account and was wondering what the best investment choice would be for the HSA. I currently buy FHLC every month. FHLC is Fidelity's health sector ETF, but I am not sure if this is the best long term investment. Should I simply buy a total market index fund in the HS...
by asif408
Thu May 02, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Does paying a child for chores count as earned income?]
Replies: 17
Views: 1620

Re: Paul Merriman newsletter

It sounds suspicious to hear of a 5 year old mowing the lawn, if you ask me.
by asif408
Thu May 02, 2019 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is factor-based small-value/Fama-French tilting worth it?
Replies: 101
Views: 5416

Re: Is factor-based small-value/Fama-French tilting worth it?

But if risk based factors are truly risk based, then they would logically have to have increased expected return in an efficient market. The expected return may take a haircut or maybe even should take a haircut, but not be eradicated. The behavioral factors are another story, but even for those, t...
by asif408
Wed May 01, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is factor-based small-value/Fama-French tilting worth it?
Replies: 101
Views: 5416

Re: Is factor-based small-value/Fama-French tilting worth it?

OP, Doesn't Fama-French factor-based investing's popularity decrease its future premium? Maybe to zero? This one statement from your original post, OP, makes me think you already know the answer. One lesson I've learned in investing that took me a while to accept is that any strategy, sector, market...
by asif408
Wed May 01, 2019 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you have a small stock allocation is it worth "tilting"?
Replies: 4
Views: 374

Re: If you have a small stock allocation is it worth "tilting"?

From 2000-2010, SCV returned about 9%, Total Bond Market returned about 6%, and TSM about 1%: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=2000&firstMonth=1&endYear=2010&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&endDate=04%2F30%2F2019&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=...
by asif408
Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HSA AA/Location - What you do and Why ?
Replies: 18
Views: 1307

Re: HSA AA/Location - What you do and Why ?

Hi Folks, 1. Do you consider your and spouse HSA part of your overall portfolio Asset-Allocation ? If not, why not ? 2. Or, Is your HSA more aggressive vs your retirement portfolio , given one may use HSA for Long Term care which maybe 20+ yrs down the road vs traditional retirement age ? 2. How do...
by asif408
Tue Apr 30, 2019 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Rekenthaler, "Whatever Happened to Emerging-Markets Stock Funds?"
Replies: 48
Views: 5046

Re: John Rekenthaler, "Whatever Happened to Emerging-Markets Stock Funds?"

I wonder if someone hijacked his account and wrote this piece, because I agree with Larry, it is poorly written, and usually he writes well. Take this excerpt for example: The main reason that the correlation statistic is modest was because emerging-markets stocks nosedived during the mid-90s, when ...
by asif408
Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Simple Aggressive Portfolio
Replies: 10
Views: 746

Re: Simple Aggressive Portfolio

My thoughts are that yours is great looking back and will be terrible going forward. Try this:

50% EM Value
25% Gold Miners
25% Global Energy

This portfolio has been terrible looking back. I don't know how it will do going forward, but at least expectations are low.
by asif408
Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Justifying Home Bias in your Portfolio
Replies: 97
Views: 6118

Re: Justifying Home Bias in your Portfolio

I'm 90% international, 10% US. My justifications are: 1) Relative valuations between US/International and US/Emerging Markets are pretty far from historical norms. The relative valuation gap between EAFE and the US, for example, is at levels not seen since the 1970s for international (which was foll...
by asif408
Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What websites do you use for the latest investing news?
Replies: 51
Views: 4064

Re: What websites do you use for the latest investing news?

Some of us are still learning and gain significantly from daily news. A new term may be mentioned that leads to new knowledge, it is a quick way to get a read on different sectors and their performance, and, perhaps most importantly, it does suggest what is driving the market up or down at that par...
by asif408
Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:03 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 12791

Re: International under-performance

Can you zoom the chart out some more? I want to see the previous 20 year performance. How's this? https://i.imgur.com/R63fDYQ.png Much better, than you, vineviz. It looks like the US underperformed EAFE for the first 27 or so years, as of the middle of this last decade the performance was even, and...
by asif408
Tue Apr 09, 2019 5:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International under-performance
Replies: 204
Views: 12791

Re: International under-performance

l1am wrote:
Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:24 am
Image

Only a 7 year trend here of US outperforming INTL
Can you zoom the chart out some more? I want to see the previous 20 year performance.
by asif408
Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Gain harvesting in Brokerage account
Replies: 4
Views: 368

Re: Tax Gain harvesting in Brokerage account

You mentioned the big pro already. The big con that comes to mind is that the gains still count toward your adjusted gross income, which could affect other deductions/credits/exemptions you might be eligible for. It's hard to say what those would be without knowing your specific situation. I would a...
by asif408
Wed Apr 03, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Benefits Of International Diversification
Replies: 86
Views: 6763

Re: Larry Swedroe: Benefits Of International Diversification

Admittedly, I couldn't resist needling you, nisiprius, but I do agree there has not been anyone I have seen recommending 100% Vanguard Healthcare. I have, however, seen many posts here using that specific healthcare fund's past long term outperformance as a reason to hold it in their portfolio (in f...
by asif408
Wed Apr 03, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Benefits Of International Diversification
Replies: 86
Views: 6763

Re: Larry Swedroe: Benefits Of International Diversification

In short... my example does not provide any compelling evidence for international diversification making an important difference. The reason why there wasn't much difference is since the book was published in 1998, we saw about a decade of international outperformance and a decade of international ...
by asif408
Tue Apr 02, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Lifestrategy vs 100% Stock in HSA
Replies: 18
Views: 1328

Re: Lifestrategy vs 100% Stock in HSA

I can't tell how much is in your HSA relative to your Roth from your post. If the HSA balance is small relative to the 401(k), I would just leave as is. The other question is: are you going to use the HSA for medical expenses? If so, I would leave things as is, too. In theory, you would prefer the h...
by asif408
Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Non-US Bogleheads who overweight US?
Replies: 23
Views: 1783

Re: Non-US Bogleheads who overweight US?

However, I've had difficulties to find arguments in favor of a US tilt that rely only on logic and math. I mean, those kind of arguments that made us become index investors in the first place. That's because they don't exist without some emotional component or reference to recent past performance. ...
by asif408
Mon Apr 01, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation "tests"
Replies: 22
Views: 1265

Re: Asset allocation "tests"

This isn't a test, but two notes of interest I would give to get a beginner or someone unfamiliar with investing very basic but important points about stocks and bonds: My mom know this theory, that's why she says she wants to be 100 bonds:) My point is to convince her to have stocks. She is 10 yea...
by asif408
Mon Apr 01, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation "tests"
Replies: 22
Views: 1265

Re: Asset allocation "tests"

This isn't a test, but two notes of interest I would give to get a beginner or someone unfamiliar with investing very basic but important points about stocks and bonds: 1) Stocks are risky in the short term. Every stock market in the world has fallen at least 80% at some point during its existence. ...
by asif408
Fri Mar 29, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Conversion Strategy and a market drop
Replies: 24
Views: 1664

Re: Conversion Strategy and a market drop

I happened to convert some after a 20% drop once before, but I wouldn't wait around for it, you might be waiting a while. If you are ready to convert just go ahead and do it.
by asif408
Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else concerned about future tinkering of LS Funds?
Replies: 21
Views: 1719

Re: Anyone else concerned about future tinkering of LS Funds?

I don't think it's unfounded. But couldn't you just switch at a later time if they decided to change things? IMO the behavioral aspect is more important than the tax efficiency aspect. Any company could make a change to a strategy, so you just have to check your e-mails when Vanguard announces a cha...
by asif408
Fri Mar 22, 2019 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book on financial market history
Replies: 11
Views: 967

Re: Book on financial market history

There is no such book that I am aware of. You'll have to piece together information from different books. I would suggest the following combination of books: Devil Take the Hindmost Four Pillars of Investing (2010 edition) or Investor's Manifesto Global Investing: The Professional's Guide to the Wor...
by asif408
Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:58 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any reason I shouldn't shorten duration on my treasury bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 1231

Re: Any reason I shouldn't shorten duration on my treasury bonds?

It's not an unreasonable move. Over a long horizon it probably won't matter much, but over a few months or years it may help you a bit.
by asif408
Wed Mar 20, 2019 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
Replies: 38
Views: 4981

Re: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article

Serious question: what would you suggest as the most objective way to selected date ranges? That's my point, there isn't one, and yours is not more objective than mine, although you seem to believe that. The biggest issue I see with using inception date of a fund to compare fund performance is that...
by asif408
Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
Replies: 38
Views: 4981

Re: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article

Maybe, maybe not. I have been a US investor for 50 years, and a US ETF investor for about 30 years. We are so far ahead of the guys who did it "right" and diversified in international for that time period that I can weather a few years of possible US underperformance and still laugh all the way to ...
by asif408
Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
Replies: 38
Views: 4981

Re: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article

Maybe, maybe not. I have been a US investor for 50 years, and a US ETF investor for about 30 years. We are so far ahead of the guys who did it "right" and diversified in international for that time period that I can weather a few years of possible US underperformance and still laugh all the way to ...
by asif408
Mon Mar 18, 2019 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
Replies: 38
Views: 4981

Re: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article

40% China, or even the 30% in the Vanguard EM index, does seem like a lot. But then if you did go with a total world allocation, China is less than 4% of that, while US is almost 55%. Perhaps the greater concern should be whether the US has grown to be too large a percentage of world market cap? I ...
by asif408
Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cash at TD - options for it?
Replies: 6
Views: 330

Re: Cash at TD - options for it?

BIL ETF is a treasury bill ETF that trades commission free and has a yield around 2.4% (before expenses I think).
by asif408
Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article
Replies: 38
Views: 4981

Re: Time to Scrap 'Emerging Markets'? WSJ article

FWIW, I think that a lot of Bogleheads have already moved in that direction. There are far fewer posts/suggested asset allocations including EM as a separate category, and far more that are using world ex-US or simply total world as a building block. That's probably because EM has been the worst pe...
by asif408
Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So what happened to the predicted bear market in bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 4420

Re: So what happened to the predicted bear market in bonds?

From 1982 to 2012 10 year Treasury Notes had an annualized real total return of 6.0%. From 2013 to 2018 the real annualized total return has been a negative 6/10 of 1%. Clearly something changed 6 years ago, which has gone unnoticed by a lot Of people. Yes, the yield on the 10 year hit one of its l...
by asif408
Thu Mar 14, 2019 7:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your favourite non-total market/SP500 ETF?
Replies: 12
Views: 1031

Re: What is your favourite non-total market/SP500 ETF?

My favorite ETFs are those that have the worst trailing 5-10 year performance. So right now that would be gold miners (GDX/RING), energy (VDE/FILL), & EM value (PXH/FNDE).

In 5 years it will probably be something else.
by asif408
Tue Mar 12, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Podcasts [Financial]
Replies: 49
Views: 3575

Re: Podcasts

Two I don't see mentioned here often finance related are Wu Zhijian's Evidentialist Channel and the i3 Investment Innovation Institute podcast. The latter has had some pretty interesting guests, and it is based out of Australia. The former sometimes had English speaking guests and other times foreig...
by asif408
Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is buying only assets with "tickers" a good Boglehead "rule"?
Replies: 23
Views: 1492

Re: Is buying only assets with "tickers" a good Boglehead "rule"?

No, because there are hundred of leveraged and inverse ETFs with tickers. Just look at SQQQ, SH, TBT, etc. All have tickers, and all are funds I would never invest in. SQQQ, which shorts the Nasdaq, is down 99.75% since inception in 2010.