Search found 1349 matches

by asif408
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 312
Views: 19200

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

But the U.S. is roughly 50% of the world's market capitalization, over $30 trillion. The U.S. only investor is buying a stake in 50% of the world's stock; no other home-country-only investor can come close to that. I'm not sure I follow the logic. So how does that diversify future risks and return ...
by asif408
Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 312
Views: 19200

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

"0% international works for me but I am 100% Australia. I do this because Jake Bagle and Wayne Barret who reside in Australia said so. They can predict the future and make really good bets about the Aussie economy. I don't trust any other country. Thanks Jake and Wayne!" I agree, 0% international, ...
by asif408
Wed Aug 15, 2018 7:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: compare return between sp500 and EAFE
Replies: 2
Views: 315

Re: compare return between sp500 and EAFE

Here is a recent post: http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/07 ... -globally/

Less than 1% difference in return from 1970-2017 between S&P and EAFE. You'll see various numbers out there, and a lot depends on the start and end dates.
by asif408
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 312
Views: 19200

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

OP, I'm not seeing you chime in, so I'm assuming nothing is convincing you to stay the course. Will you agree to come back to this post in 5 years, say approximately 2024, and look at the past 22 years of returns (2002-2024) as you are doing now and see how US compares to Int'l, and post your result...
by asif408
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why invest in international?
Replies: 40
Views: 8661

Re: Why invest in international?

Unless this is not going to continue to be true, going forward, wouldn't it make sense for an "arbitrager" to go long Int'l and short US, betting on an eventual convergence...? E.g US has pulled out front of International over the last half decade....Doesn't reversion to the mean suggest that is no...
by asif408
Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 312
Views: 19200

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

I was a pretty young kid when I started reading Bogleheads, over on Morningstar forums. Once I "got it" I checked in far less frequently. Maybe a couple times a month. Now, I'm approaching middle age, and I have some real money saved. So I come back a little more. Now, when I come to the forum, eve...
by asif408
Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 312
Views: 19200

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Just curious, why are people not surprised when an investment in one country (US) beats an investment which includes a basket of almost 45 countries (which is what they are doing when comparing US to Int'l)? It shouldn't be surprising that individual markets beat a basket of markets for long stretch...
by asif408
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retire in Florida or Alabama?
Replies: 84
Views: 5349

Re: Retire in Florida or Alabama?

I live in north Florida. There are beach communities that are not crowded up here, but there are also usually more than an hour or two from major cities, so unless they are accustomed or want to live in a more rural beach community, or you pick a crowded one like Destin that has more amenities, they...
by asif408
Tue Aug 14, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 312
Views: 19200

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

OP, I'm not going to try too hard and convince you to stay the course with international. I'm just going to suggest you either invite those similar to you in this post or another post to explain why they want to, or already have, reduced or eliminated their international holdings. Then ask them to r...
by asif408
Sat Aug 11, 2018 6:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9701

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

Turkey is such a small portion of the Total International Stock Index Fund, yet the fund lost nearly 2% today. I'm ready to seriously rethink the international stock portion (33%) of my equity allocation. And this isn't about market timing. It seems to be an recurring pattern. Something bad happens...
by asif408
Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: treasury bills 4 weeks not always available?
Replies: 10
Views: 608

Re: treasury bills 4 weeks not always available?

Try this link: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/i ... m?upcoming. Looks like an auction on 8/14, announcement will be 8/13.
by asif408
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9701

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

Turkish stock market is down almost 20% to open the day today, OP.........
by asif408
Wed Aug 08, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4248

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

OP, can you also specify which "market" you are referring to? It is the US stock market, the world stock market, etc. that is overvalued? For example, would you say the Russian, Turkish, Spanish, and Brazilian stock markets are overvalued?
by asif408
Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4248

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

So here's my question. If it were March 2000, (or 1901, 1929, 1968, 2007) would you still invest half of everything you own in stocks? And by obvious extension, if you're currently sitting on enormous gains in your SP500 index fund, why not take profits? If it keeps going up, so what? Would you rat...
by asif408
Tue Aug 07, 2018 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA advice
Replies: 1
Views: 233

Re: Roth IRA advice

You've given limited information, so you likely won't get much response until you elaborate some more. We don't even know if you have enough income to contribute to a Roth, what your goals are for the money, timeline, etc. My first suggestion would be just to dump everything into a Target Retirement...
by asif408
Tue Aug 07, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9701

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

GVAL - which is not EM per se, of course - was suggested above. I have looked at the ETFs PXH and TLTE. What EM [value] Funds would you suggest? Do you use any yourself? I use PXH, and FNDE is one I considered, as they both use the fundamental index approach, so I would recommend either one. I thin...
by asif408
Tue Aug 07, 2018 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9701

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

One of my concerns about Turkey/any market that is "down" at a time of general global economic strength is: Will they be even worse of "when the cycle turns"? I.e., when there is an actual risk-off event, and/or global recession. I don't think anyone knows the answer to this question. I am also loo...
by asif408
Mon Aug 06, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 7446

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

I think what many don't realize is that the Japanese stock market outperformed the US stock market (and most other stock markets around the world) dramatically throughout the 1970s and 1980s: https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/%5EN225/#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6IndlZWsiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiY2FuZGxlV2lkdGgiOjE...
by asif408
Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Alignment Guidance
Replies: 23
Views: 1973

Re: Portfolio Alignment Guidance

What is the bench-mark/baseline to consider for world market cap? Will Vanguard world index (VT) work as proxy? VT is an excellent proxy. What is the best site to show market cap break/drill down? As I place the allocation approximately world market cap, will it remain same for life? Or need to do ...
by asif408
Sun Aug 05, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why international?
Replies: 26
Views: 2078

Re: Why international?

OP, Let me help you. Here is a 12 year period international outperformed: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2002&firstMonth=3&endYear=2014&lastMonth=6&endDate=08%2F04%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=tru...
by asif408
Fri Aug 03, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 61
Views: 5510

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

The strategy of the fund has changed several times, IIRC. Larry Swedroe mentioned that they changed the strategy sometime in the mid-2000s. That could explain its divergence from the Fidelity fund in the 2007-2009 crash. Then in 2014 they changed management again and it seemed to be behaving more l...
by asif408
Fri Aug 03, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: How did you become a Boglehead?
Replies: 53
Views: 3411

Re: How did you become a Boglehead?

I have had a 401(k) since the early 2000s, but mainly just randomly picked a few funds to invest in through my employer. I wasn't even paying attention to my account during the financial crisis. In retrospect, these were good things, as I was contributing to a somewhat diversified portfolio and igno...
by asif408
Fri Aug 03, 2018 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Files for two Fidelity ZERO℠ Funds (0.00% ER total stock and total international mutual funds)
Replies: 619
Views: 52503

Re: Fidelity lowers Expenses on existing Funds

Not enough to move. If I was just starting out, though, I might start at Fidelity.
by asif408
Fri Aug 03, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VNQ vs SCHH is one REIT index ETF better than the other?
Replies: 2
Views: 205

Re: VNQ vs SCHH is one REIT index ETF better than the other?

Correlations are almost 1: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VNQ+SCHH&endDate=08%2F02%2F2018&timePeriod=1&numTradingDays=60, and annualized returns are with 0.01% of each other. So I wouldn't expect much difference in the long run. And assuming they are a small porti...
by asif408
Thu Aug 02, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: what % of international stock
Replies: 36
Views: 3303

Re: what % of international stock

VTIAX and FSIVX have been performing pretty poorly long-term if you look at the past five years. In fact, FSIVX still has not recovered and reached its peak high from 2008. Is holding these total international stock mutual funds still a good call for long-term growth potential? I've lost out on 30%...
by asif408
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA's - when does it make sense?
Replies: 37
Views: 3202

Re: HSA's - when does it make sense?

I am wondering, if an HSA is invested versus kept in cash, is there a penalty for withdrawing it for medical expenses? Do you have to keep it invested for a certain amount of time before withdrawing? Last, how much cash vs invested funds do folks recommend? There is no penalty for withdrawing for m...
by asif408
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2163

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

What is the problem here? I'm guessing the problem is that Mean Reversion isn't anything more than a statistical abstraction, a chimera. We've been duped again. Phooey. And I'm guessing the problem is the impatient aren't, by definition, patient enough to wait for it to happen. So patience is rewar...
by asif408
Thu Aug 02, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 61
Views: 5510

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

It doesn't seem to me... never having even considered this fund or having paid much attention to it... that its behavior has pretty much reflected the behavior of precious metals equity, as shown by Morningstar's category average (orange) and a competitor's offering (FSAGX, Fidelity Select Gold Por...
by asif408
Thu Aug 02, 2018 7:50 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA's - when does it make sense?
Replies: 37
Views: 3202

Re: HSA's - when does it make sense?

I have 2 HSA's. You can have as many as you like. I have one that I and my employer contributes to, that I then periodically move the money to the other account where I invest. As long as you do a trustee-to-trustee transfer and not a rollover, you can move money as often as you like from HSA to HSA...
by asif408
Wed Aug 01, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Often to Adjust Target Asset Allocation
Replies: 10
Views: 793

Re: How Often to Adjust Target Asset Allocation

I could be wrong, but I don't think you'll get a consensus. 5 years seems reasonable to me, too. I imagine there are a wide range of reasonable options.
by asif408
Wed Aug 01, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/Scatter Part 5: International stocks
Replies: 12
Views: 1582

Re: Matter/Scatter Part 5: International stocks

I'm currently reading a book titled Global Investing, by Ibbotson and Brinson, which was written in 1992 or 1993. In it, they highlight returns of stock markets throughout the world from 1970-1990, which includes the US. The US was near the bottom in returns among I believe 10-20 countries highlight...
by asif408
Tue Jul 31, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you tilt value?
Replies: 12
Views: 657

Re: Do you tilt value?

I'm agnostic on factors for the most part. About the only one that I think might potentially be long term successful is value, and that is primarily because of the behavioral issues associated with it. I'm more of a believer that the potential success of these "factors" depends on timing. If you buy...
by asif408
Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are millennials botching their asset allocations?
Replies: 41
Views: 3617

Re: Are millennial botching their asset allocations?

There is no separation between IRAs and taxable accounts in this analysis, so I'm not sure what we can really learn about retirement investing. Maybe millennials have more money where they can actually invest in taxable accounts because they are maxing out tax-deferred space. Taxable accounts could ...
by asif408
Tue Jul 31, 2018 10:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns
Replies: 41
Views: 4775

Re: DOOM!!!!! Morgan Stanley warns

That's a great website. Here's another "gem": https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this- ... op_stories

I wish someone would pay me to write doom and gloom stories everyday.
by asif408
Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Alignment Guidance
Replies: 23
Views: 1973

Re: Portfolio Alignment Guidance

Do you mind sharing the asset allocation (weights) rational? If the portfolio size grows, will the same allocation/assets hold good or need changes? The rational for my suggestion is that the stock portion is approximately world market cap. You will receive the return of the world market, after cos...
by asif408
Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick
Replies: 84
Views: 8491

Re: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick

Over the last decade interest rates have been very low. Has the stock market ever been stimulated by abnormally low interest rates as it has been over the last decade? Low rates seem to have been a global phenomenon. I ask this question because I don't know if this period is an historical anomaly o...
by asif408
Mon Jul 30, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 61
Views: 5510

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

Perhaps this is the buy signal for gold that I've been waiting for for a long time... VGPMX has done impressively poor since the bottom on the market in 2009 relative to almost everything else. Even emerging markets have doubled in price since the bottom of March 2009, while VGPMX has actually had ...
by asif408
Mon Jul 30, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio Alignment Guidance
Replies: 23
Views: 1973

Re: Portfolio Alignment Guidance

My suggestion would be to simplify, removing any holding less than 10%, and hold more in foreign stocks. If you approximate a global market cap with 15% in bonds, you would get something like this: SPTM 45% SPDR Portfolio Total Stock Market ETF (SPTM) ER 0.03% SPDW 30% SPDR Portfolio Developed Wld e...
by asif408
Mon Jul 30, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick
Replies: 84
Views: 8491

Re: Are stocks dangerously overvalued? Not according to new Vanguard yardstick

Assuming their yardstick is true, does this mean that foreign markets are even cheaper? If we make a fair value CAPE for the US, I am assuming it should also be applied globally, unless we think the US stock market is special.
by asif408
Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 61
Views: 5510

Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... A:MUF:0323

For anyone who owns this fund, just an FYI, and another reason to avoid active funds, as it appears they are completely changing the investment strategy.
by asif408
Fri Jul 27, 2018 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: FRS (Florida Retirement System) question
Replies: 13
Views: 1326

Re: FRS (Florida Retirement System) question

I'm invested in the FRS, and If she'll be there at least 10 years, that would be enough time to be vested in the pension plan, which I believe is 8 years now. IIRC, the non-pension, 401(k) type plan has a shorter vestment period. So it's really up to you. There is a calculator on the FRS website you...
by asif408
Thu Jul 26, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?
Replies: 45
Views: 3626

Re: FCA stock drops 15% following Marchionne's death: another argument against market cap weighting?

My counter argument is that sure, you can devise a way to avoid big stocks with high valuations by using something other than market cap, but the problem is you could also miss out on many years of gains that may offset any large future losses. So in the market cap case, yes, you may fall harder whe...
by asif408
Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9701

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

BH in another thread says MPT works in all countries. So the implication is ppl in Turkey should buy and hold Turkey index fund. serious question to BH. Q: Suppose you are a Turkish. Will you buy and hold Turkey index fund? Great question. Whether your name is John Bogle-san, Johannes Bogle, or Jua...
by asif408
Wed Jul 25, 2018 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Add More Long Term Bonds in a ROTH IRA?
Replies: 7
Views: 446

Re: Add More Long Term Bonds in a ROTH IRA?

Lots of stock markets are not in a bubble: The developed (ex-US) and emerging markets have made almost no money in the last 7 years, while the S&P has doubled: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf/chart.action?t=SPY®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US...
by asif408
Wed Jul 25, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Precious Metals ETF
Replies: 11
Views: 690

Re: Precious Metals ETF

The question you have to ask regarding either one is: what benefit will it bring, and will I use it properly to benefit from holding it? 1) I personally haven't found an answer to this question, so I don't own any. 2) I can partially answer this question. Precious metals equities have, at times, zig...
by asif408
Tue Jul 24, 2018 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do you deal with a bear market?
Replies: 35
Views: 2350

Re: How do you deal with a bear market?

My way of dealing with a bear market is having a plan in place before the bear market and ignoring people around me who try to influence me. It seems like you are asking about rebalancing. It's difficult to know the right time, so you simply create some criteria that you use to rebalance. And if you...
by asif408
Tue Jul 24, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels
Replies: 96
Views: 9701

Re: Turkey/Turkish Stocks down 32% - approaching 2008 levels

I agree with ValueThinker. Buying low is generally a good thing but not necessarily at the individual stock or individual country level. If you have the gambling urge then throw a small portion into it as long as it's money you don't mind losing. Remember that stock markets of individual countries h...
by asif408
Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Stocks and Margin Loans as Inflation Hedges
Replies: 12
Views: 960

Re: Value Stocks and Margin Loans as Inflation Hedges

IIRC, from the Bill Bernstein book you quoted regarding value stocks, stocks of commodity producers are also a hedge against inflation, as well as international diversification. So it seems if you agree with his views you would want to make sure you have adequate international diversification, a til...
by asif408
Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA Investment Portfolio - am I doing right?
Replies: 14
Views: 1317

Re: HSA Investment Portfolio - am I doing right?

A little challenging to help much without knowing your specific overall asset allocation, but here are a few general suggestions. With such a small balance, I'd probably only hold one or two funds in the HSA account and use other accounts to counterbalance your asset allocation between stocks, bonds...