Search found 2159 matches

by asif408
Wed Sep 30, 2020 3:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is the best investment you made in your children's/a child's life?
Replies: 27
Views: 1734

Re: What is the best investment you made in your children's/a child's life?

To me its time and emotional development. Because what's the point of saving money for a kid if they are not prepared for life emotionally? No amount of money can fix that or make up for that down the road.
by asif408
Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?
Replies: 64
Views: 4778

Re: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?

Two big takeaways to me: 1) Valuations matter; high valuations tend to mean lower future returns. If valuations are high enough, that can mean negative or zero returns for decades, so best not to own a lot of countries with very high valuations. 2) High valuations can last for many years or continu...
by asif408
Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens after the risk shows up?
Replies: 21
Views: 1914

Re: What happens after the risk shows up?

I'm interested in talking about what happens when the risk shows up. So let's say you've had a bad decade—yes, even your prudent 3 fund portfolio can have had a bad decade. If I understand the theory, your expected return going forward shouldn't be significantly altered by past results. While we ex...
by asif408
Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?
Replies: 64
Views: 4778

Re: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?

Interestingly, Japan's stock market has done better than other ex-US world stocks for the past 13 or so years... Not by much but true: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2007&firstMonth=11&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false...
by asif408
Mon Sep 28, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?
Replies: 64
Views: 4778

Re: What do Bogleheads think of what happen to Japan?

Two big takeaways to me: 1) Valuations matter; high valuations tend to mean lower future returns. If valuations are high enough, that can mean negative or zero returns for decades, so best not to own a lot of countries with very high valuations. 2) High valuations can last for many years or continue...
by asif408
Mon Sep 28, 2020 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 202
Views: 12442

Re: Myths of international investing - Fidelity

Honestly, I'll invest in REITs, Healthcare, or a Technology fund for a speculative position before International! Why not? "Bogle on Mutual Funds" has example portfolios with a 15% allocation to a sector/specialty fund! At least those funds have made a lot of moolah over the decades! As long as its...
by asif408
Mon Sep 28, 2020 9:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: To what extent is divergence between US and European stock markets related to structural factors?
Replies: 16
Views: 1215

Re: To what extent is divergence between US and European stock markets related to structural factors?

I'm not sure. To what extent was Europe's outperformance during the 17 year period from 1993 to 2009 related to structural factors?: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VFINX®ion=usa&culture=en-US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%2...
by asif408
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]
Replies: 109
Views: 6557

Re: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]

greek-yogurt wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:15 pm I would venture to say that 2020 to the rest of my lifetime will have USA completely dominating International.
If you are dumping international stocks, no need for wishy-washy, namby-pamby phrases like "I would venture to say". Replace that with "without a shadow of a doubt".
by asif408
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]
Replies: 109
Views: 6557

Re: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]

It is 1986! Nonetheless, it appears that unless we pick a very specific time frame to support a debate on the inclusion of international such as the 1970s or the 2000s, that the debate for including international is much weaker. It is unfortunate international, for the higher risks involved (curren...
by asif408
Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]
Replies: 109
Views: 6557

Re: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]

greek-yogurt wrote: Fri Sep 25, 2020 12:10 pm I'm done with ex-US. Thanks again for the feedback, all. Best of luck to us all and be well and safe out there.
Glad you came to a decision. Feel free to come back in a couple of years and let us know how things turned out.
by asif408
Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help my try to rationalize why I should ignore Nasdaq
Replies: 39
Views: 2278

Re: Help my try to rationalize why I should ignore Nasdaq

To build on what arcticpineapple said above, QQQ underperformed US stocks in 7 of the 9 years from 2000-2008. From 2009-2019 it outperformed 10 of those 11 years. So 8 years in the last 2 decades the total stock market has outperformed and 12 years in the last two decades NASDAQ has. And 10 of those...
by asif408
Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Myths of international investing - Fidelity
Replies: 202
Views: 12442

Re: Myth's of international investing - Fidelity

Those who today are in the position I was in thirty plus years ago, making decisions about how to start investing. So I believe my point, in that context, is a valid one. Each investor must form their own judgment about what portfolio is best for them and that they can commit to hold for the long-t...
by asif408
Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]
Replies: 109
Views: 6557

Re: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]

Yes, I don't like or dislike, as I don't know the future. But Japan has been a large drag on international indexes the past 30 years or so. Not exactly true. Since mid 2012, Japan has outperformed total international stock index: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod...
by asif408
Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]
Replies: 109
Views: 6557

Re: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]

Yes, I don't like or dislike, as I don't know the future. But Japan has been a large drag on international indexes the past 30 years or so. Not exactly true. Since mid 2012, Japan has outperformed total international stock index: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod...
by asif408
Thu Sep 24, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Investor investing mostly in international
Replies: 30
Views: 2279

Re: US Investor investing mostly in international

I do (about 85% international), but I don't mind being different, lagging US stocks for a while, and hearing the constant chatter here about how terrible international investing has been the last 30 years and how those countries are more risky than the US for various reasons. I'm not comfortable tar...
by asif408
Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2994
Views: 215311

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Is this a popular view here in this thread that a fund like AVDV with a .36% ER will likely eat up the SCV premium? The DFA int scv fund seems to have a decent history of returns and Avantis has better ERs than DFA. Edit: I should qualify this further and ask a popular view in this thread among SCV...
by asif408
Wed Sep 23, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]
Replies: 109
Views: 6557

Re: VXUS - Why? [Vanguard Total International Stock ETF]

You cannot argue with what 10K invested in each have actually returned over the last 10 years, which is: 10y 10K into VIGAX is now $54.5K 10y 10K into VXUS is now $13.5K This is not "performance chasing" but the observations of a moderately high IQ investor who is questioning international holdings...
by asif408
Wed Sep 23, 2020 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Correlation with the US and Struggling to Pick EM/ International
Replies: 33
Views: 1732

Re: Developed International Correlation with the US

Should this be posted in personal investments? I may have messed up, wasn't too sure I think the moderators can move it if they believe it belongs there. I see during downturns that EM gets crushed. If/when there is a big pullback on EM (40-50%+), it will be a great opportunity. EM stocks fell 40% ...
by asif408
Wed Sep 23, 2020 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Correlation with the US and Struggling to Pick EM/ International
Replies: 33
Views: 1732

Re: Developed International Correlation with the US

Isn't the purpose of diversification to find less correlated assets to reduce risk and give you a greater return for the amount of risk you take? Or is the purpose of investing in International in case we have a time in the future where somehow we become less correlated with developed countries and...
by asif408
Wed Sep 23, 2020 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Poor performing portfolio
Replies: 71
Views: 7230

Re: Poor performing portfolio

I'm counting on Small Caps to rebound strongly in 2022. As for International I don't have much hope but i'll just hold on to what I have, not contributing new money to either Small Caps or International. So why bother holding them if you don't add more after they've underperformed? If you're not wi...
by asif408
Mon Sep 21, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Commodity producer ETF
Replies: 10
Views: 369

Re: Commodity producer ETF

I use FILL (Global Energy Producers) and RING (Global Gold Miners). There are probably others.
by asif408
Mon Sep 21, 2020 8:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10803

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

I've never seen a single human claim that one country would have the best individual stock performance. You must not come here very often, then. Who has said that the US will perform better than every single country? You're engaging in rank trolling. Not trolling, simply an observation. When a sign...
by asif408
Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fund Performance Comparisons
Replies: 23
Views: 1267

Re: Fund Performance Comparisons

Good points but I think historical growth/past performance does mean something and I'd sure want to know how a fund has performed YTD, 1yr, 3yr, 5yr 10yr and since inception before investing. I realize past performance is no guarantee of future results but if a fund has consistently outperformed an...
by asif408
Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Alternative Investments
Replies: 34
Views: 2771

Re: Alternative Investments

That's easy, 100% EM Value is the way to go: https://www.gmo.com/americas/research-l ... gust-2020/
by asif408
Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So, you want to tilt to growth
Replies: 33
Views: 2750

Re: So, you want to tilt to growth

Investors buy recent winners rather than build a well-balanced portfolio because of a myopic view of performance. Over the last 40 years, growth has outperformed value 20 times, and value has outperformed growth 20 times, but in the recent past growth has outperformed. so if value and growth have o...
by asif408
Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So, you want to tilt to growth
Replies: 33
Views: 2750

Re: So, you want to tilt to growth

Unfortunately, Paul, I think this thread will be the proverbial "shouting into the wind". I've done it myself but it just becomes a game of whack a mole most of the time, as there are too many threads.
by asif408
Thu Sep 17, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ
Replies: 33
Views: 2544

Re: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ

But, a part of me strongly wants to keep the stock/buy even more Apple stock given the recent meteoric rise and my belief that Apple stock will continue to grow over the next 5 years. That said, I am unable to discern whether this belief stems from recency/familiarity bias. What do you all think? H...
by asif408
Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ
Replies: 33
Views: 2544

Re: Opinions on 100% into VGT and QQQ

Considering that you all of your income is derived from the US tech sector, I would suggest putting some of your money elsewhere. The odds are when tech stocks are doing poorly (which at some point they will) the odds that you might be laid off/let go are higher too. If you want invest some money in...
by asif408
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock that can act like bonds
Replies: 33
Views: 2512

Re: Stock that can act like bonds

I'll go one step farther than other posters, OP, and tell you that not only will stocks not act like high quality bonds in a true crisis, but many bonds (think junk bonds and emerging markets bonds) will not either.
by asif408
Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Growth v. value in two Vanguard active international funds
Replies: 20
Views: 1106

Re: Growth v. value in two Vanguard active international funds

It looks like Vanguard's int'l value fund has actually had the same performance as DFA's int'l value fund since the mid 1990s, although the paths to get there were different: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/fund-performance?s=y&symbol=VWIGX&symbols=VTRIX&benchmark=DFIVX It looks like the Vanguar...
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10803

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

columbia wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:09 pm I've never seen a single human claim that one country would have the best individual stock performance.
You must not come here very often, then.
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10803

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

For everyone picking various endpoints to debate what is "recency bias" and not, according to the Dimson-Marsh data the US has outperformed ex-US by 2% since 1900. And 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy. Right, but Australia has the best returns of any country, according to the late...
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10803

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

For everyone picking various endpoints to debate what is "recency bias" and not, according to the Dimson-Marsh data the US has outperformed ex-US by 2% since 1900. And 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy. Right, but Australia has the best returns of any country, according to the late...
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10803

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

burritoLover wrote: Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:47 am I didn't put forth the information - you did. If you are going put something forth as definitive fact, it is not my responsibility to do all the leg-work to confirm it.
Why not give it a try?
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10803

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

I'd be glad to look over specific year-to-year returns (ex-Japan) when you cite them from a reliable source that doesn't involve checking out a book from the library. This may come as a shock, but sometimes you actually have to put forward (GASP!) effort to find historical information besides click...
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10803

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

Yep, the US has trounced ex-US for the last 30 years. Excluding the massive Japanese bubble, it was probably a wash before that in the 70's/80's - a very different time globally from today. According to Peter Bernstein in Against the Gods, from 1970-1993 EAFE stocks returned 14.3% vs the S&P's 11.7...
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 10:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.
Replies: 191
Views: 10803

Re: Reasons to invest internationally, or not.

Yep, the US has trounced ex-US for the last 30 years. Excluding the massive Japanese bubble, it was probably a wash before that in the 70's/80's - a very different time globally from today. According to Peter Bernstein in Against the Gods, from 1970-1993 EAFE stocks returned 14.3% vs the S&P's 11.7...
by asif408
Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding between QQQ & VGT?
Replies: 23
Views: 1961

Re: Deciding between QQQ & VGT?

pasadena wrote: Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:56 pm But then, QQQ is slightly ahead if you look at the last 10 years, and even more since 2004 (start of available data). We know nothing :)
Yea, I noticed that. But he should chase the most recent winner. 10 years is old.
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 4:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding between QQQ & VGT?
Replies: 23
Views: 1961

Re: Deciding between QQQ & VGT?

Since you are chasing performance, I would chase VGT. They've both beaten US total stock market, but VGT has outperformed QQQ by about 4% CAGR over the last 5 years: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2015&firstMonth=8&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendar...
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Energy Sector ETF - Hold or Sell?
Replies: 19
Views: 988

Re: Energy Sector ETF - Hold or Sell?

I have a 10% holding in global energy companies (ETF FILL), and I bought more a few months ago to rebalance. Still waiting, and plan to continue waiting, it's not a huge portion but 10% is enough to make some difference. If I had a 2% stake I'd probably be increasing it right now. If you need a TLH ...
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 168
Views: 15418

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

asif408 made an interesting point regarding ex-US in the late 80's. He points the finger at Japan for the poor performance since then, since it dominated the index, and began at nosebleed valuations; by my read, Japan's CAPE in 1986 was about 60 or 70. Meanwhile, the US that year had a CAPE startin...
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 168
Views: 15418

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

Using Portfolio Visualizer, since 1986 ex-us equity has under-performed US equity by 3.74% per year. That's 34 years. $10,000 in 1986 would now be $322,348 for US and $281,570 for ex-US. So, how many years would ex-US equity now need to out-perform US equity just to break even, and if that happens,...
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 168
Views: 15418

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

I guess it doesn't matter though, because I'll be dead and my kids will certainly have spend their inheritance by then. :wink: True, most big inheritances get blown anyway within a generation or two, so your kids and grandkids will probably be more concerned with spending the money than our esoteri...
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 168
Views: 15418

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

Serious question. When international does outperform U.S., on average, how much is it by? From 2002-2007, it was 8% for developed markets and about 20% for emerging markets: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2002&firstMonth=3&endYear=2007&lastMonth=10...
by asif408
Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those concerned about International Stocks...
Replies: 168
Views: 15418

Re: For those concerned about International Stocks...

Using Portfolio Visualizer, since 1986 ex-us equity has under-performed US equity by 3.74% per year. That's 34 years. $10,000 in 1986 would now be $322,348 for US and $281,570 for ex-US. So, how many years would ex-US equity now need to out-perform US equity just to break even, and if that happens,...
by asif408
Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Asset Allocation-What have you learned about yourself?
Replies: 51
Views: 3512

Re: Asset Allocation-What have you learned about yourself?

I learned I underestimated my risk tolerance initially (which is a good thing; apparently more people overestimate their risk tolerance). I started out with 30-40% in bonds when I began really learning and handling my own investments about 7 years ago. I've gradually upped my stock allocation over t...
by asif408
Fri Sep 11, 2020 9:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 6896

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

In the 20th century the US outperformed ex-US by 2%, according to the Dimson-Marsh data. And 200 years ago the US was not even a top 10 economy. It has actually outperformed for centuries. That's interesting. Can you call up a comparison of VTSMX vs VGTSX from, say, 1789 to present so we can visual...
by asif408
Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 6896

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

According to portfolio visualizer, ex-US CAGR since 1986 is 6.8%. US CAGR since 1986 is 10.54% The magnitude of that difference is huge and makes me feel like there must be some way to strategically tilt to the US as a default but increase international allocation when certain conditions are met, a...
by asif408
Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?
Replies: 67
Views: 4045

Re: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?

Seems like there are lots of solutions, the best would seem to be to own more international developed and emerging market equities and small cap US equities. If you can't bring yourself to do that, you could own a total US stocks market index fund (it has about a 19% concentration in those stocks) o...
by asif408
Wed Sep 09, 2020 5:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 6896

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

Thanks, out of interest how did you come across that Barclays CAPE link? I wasn't aware of that resource. This is a great counterpoint to the US deserving uniquely high valuations. I believe the US should do so to an extent due to a mix of USD status, size of the economy, sector diversity and so on...