Search found 1438 matches

by asif408
Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6153

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

I happen to have Vanguard Emerging Markets in an old Roth IRA that has never been touched or added to since March of 2010. Over 8.5 years, it's up a grand total of 28% nominal or about 3% a year. That includes reinvested dividends. 36-month trailing P/E (I found a chart from Vanguard in 2013) were ...
by asif408
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6153

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

Between now and 2023, there will be an year when EM will outperform everything else. Does that prove anything, if it were to have a couple of sharp negative years after that. As I said before, the return distributions are highly volatile and highly unpredictable, and that makes it almost impossible...
by asif408
Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6153

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

Only problem is, those forecasts have not materialized into actual results. Valuation can be cheaper and continue to remain cheap, and that is for a reason. Investors are willing to pay a premium for US corporations, many of them are actually more economically sound than some of the entire countrie...
by asif408
Sun Oct 07, 2018 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubling down on EM [Emerging Market]
Replies: 55
Views: 5694

Re: Doubling down on EM [Emerging Market]

I have a similar portfolio to yours, around 60% EM, mostly EM value, which I've had since 2016. I respect your openness and, for the most part, agree with your reasoning. I'm not too cute with my overweight, I simply picked an allocation I can live with and looked for the cheapest and simplest way t...
by asif408
Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Weighting for Europe/USA/Emerging
Replies: 4
Views: 323

Re: Weighting for Europe/USA/Emerging

The more I learn the simpler I believe you should make things. That is, don't think about the specific weightings too much but do have some investments in each group. No matter what country you live in, the easiest way to do that is to start by buying a total world type fund if you can, which will w...
by asif408
Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP
Replies: 21
Views: 1205

Re: Contrarian investors vs. EMH/GMP

They are both mostly right. Regarding #1, most investors don't do better than average, but some do. The difficulty, especially with fund managers who beat the market for a while, is that if you do beat the market and are successful and attract a lot of money you typically do worse going forward, bec...
by asif408
Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Turning 70 1/2 next year 73% in US stocks in Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 2735

Re: Turning 70 1/2 next year 73% in US stocks in Portfolio

OP, Your portfolio looks like an advertisement for what has performed the best over the past ten years (at least among the equities), as it is almost exclusively US stocks, concentrated in healthcare and technology. Nothing wrong with that, but don't necessary expect the same performance over the ne...
by asif408
Tue Oct 02, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 111
Views: 7650

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

Why gold rather than platinum or silver? The latter two have declined precipitously the past few years. Heck, platinum is cheaper than gold right now, I can't recall when that was the case before. Just listen to commercials on AM talk radio or watch commercials on Fox News and you'll understand why...
by asif408
Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding Reat Estate and International to my portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1370

Re: Adding Reat Estate and International to my portfolio

To me the fewer funds you can hold and the simpler you can keep things the better. I would agree, yet it would seem from this thread, I *do* need more international exposure. I should be fine forgoing the REITs, but how should I go about weighing the international options? I would start at market w...
by asif408
Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VASGX + VSTMX Hybrid?
Replies: 9
Views: 571

Re: VASGX + VSTMX Hybrid?

Probably overcomplicating, stick with VASGX and call it a day, or just make your own 3 fund portfolio.
by asif408
Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 129
Views: 14714

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

Some investors don’t sleep well at night when they put themselves in the position to sleep well at night. FOMO will keep them up. Yes, Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) is another issue. The thing is, if you want to cut risk it is pretty likely you are cutting return as well. Pretty much the whole reason ...
by asif408
Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Adding Reat Estate and International to my portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 1370

Re: Adding Reat Estate and International to my portfolio

2. Overall, how do I add more and or stronger international elements? Until the TSP (reportedly) changes up their international arrangements in 2019, what could I do to add more foreign stocks or bonds to my portfolio? I also am interested in exposure to developing/emerging markets. What suggestion...
by asif408
Fri Sep 28, 2018 6:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A quick peek at a RAFI Fundamental Large-Cap Index Fund, ten years later
Replies: 22
Views: 1585

Re: A quick peek at a RAFI Fundamental Large-Cap Index Fund, ten years later

I personally wouldn't expect a fundamental index to outperform during a time when growth stocks did so much better. Perhaps that's how they were sold and yes I agree that's dubious marketing. Maybe I misremember, but I thought Arnott vigorously claimed that fundamental indexing was somehow differen...
by asif408
Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is high inflation a good thing while working?
Replies: 40
Views: 2670

Re: Is high inflation a good thing while working?

I can't envision a situation where high inflation is a good thing for most. It's good if you have a decent size portfolio invested in stocks with the specific stipulations you mentioned, but if you are like most people, you don't earn 150k, the median income is more like 50k or 60k. If you're in tha...
by asif408
Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A quick peek at a RAFI Fundamental Large-Cap Index Fund, ten years later
Replies: 22
Views: 1585

Re: A quick peek at a RAFI Fundamental Large-Cap Index Fund, ten years later

jeffyscott wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:32 am
Of course you meant the opposite, that growth has outperformed...
Yes, typo on my part, thanks! I've corrected it above.
by asif408
Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A quick peek at a RAFI Fundamental Large-Cap Index Fund, ten years later
Replies: 22
Views: 1585

Re: A quick peek at a RAFI Fundamental Large-Cap Index Fund, ten years later

In any case, it dropped further and then climbed further than the S&P 500 fund, thus behaving in a slightly riskier way, such is not what fundamental indexing was supposed to do. I don't claim to be an expert on how the fundamental indexes are advertised, but I've heard Arnott say this is exactly h...
by asif408
Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My CAPE10 based IPS
Replies: 103
Views: 6078

Re: My CAPE10 based IPS

Which is why I made clear I only use CAPE for large cap US stocks. I don't consider small cap or international data reliable enough. So, just curious, what valuation metrics do you use when deciding to modify your US/International or your large/small holdings if you don't use CAPE for international...
by asif408
Mon Sep 24, 2018 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'
Replies: 74
Views: 7959

Re: Siegel: 'stocks are overvalued on a long-term basis, but bonds are enormously overvalued on a long-term basis'

Can someone explain to me what this "end of 30+ year bond bull market" and complete and utter doom and gloom in regard to bonds I see everywhere actually means? In my very limited understanding, for bonds to fall in price, the yield has to rise. For bonds to lose a big chunk (say 15%-20%) the rates...
by asif408
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA investment plan
Replies: 11
Views: 1136

Re: HSA investment plan

Since you are planning to invest in a Treasury bond fund, I'd wait until you have at least $3000 or so dollars in the HSA before investing. In fact, I'm tempted to say if you are not going to invest in equities it would probably be best just to find an HSA with a high yield savings account to invest...
by asif408
Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple-minded sayings?
Replies: 37
Views: 3063

Re: Simple-minded sayings?

A pithy saying doesn't really provide much analysis or end a debate. True, but most people who have lots of followers or fans have pithy sayings, because long-winded discussions about nuance tend not to appeal to the masses, especially about topics that they have lukewarm interest in. Think radio a...
by asif408
Thu Sep 20, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with HSA fund selection
Replies: 7
Views: 558

Re: Help with HSA fund selection

Based on your asset allocation, VTPSX, VIIIX, and VBMPX, with possibly the addition of VEMIX if you don't have emerging markets elsewhere, are all good choices. Like others above, I keep just one or two funds in my HSA, no need to mirror asset allocation in each account unless you really want to or ...
by asif408
Wed Sep 19, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can predictions on currency depreciaction be any more accurate than those of the stock market?
Replies: 13
Views: 882

Re: Can predictions on currency depreciaction be any more accurate than those of the stock market?

I would say no. The only thing that can probably be said is that there tends to be cyclicality in performance of currencies, so since the dollar has been appreciating most of the last 7 years against other currencies around the world, at some point the trend will likely reverse. When and what path i...
by asif408
Wed Sep 19, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Advantage of Rebalancing for different asset allocations
Replies: 25
Views: 1496

Re: Advantage of Rebalancing for different asset allocations

In general, unless bonds outperform stocks or only underperform slightly, rebalancing between stocks and bonds will reduce returns over most investment horizons. Rebalancing between stock asset classes, such as between US and emerging markets stocks, or between US stocks and precious metals equities...
by asif408
Wed Sep 19, 2018 9:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 45
Views: 2550

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

I think it depends on what you mean by "stability". If you mean something that goes up when stocks are down, bonds and bond funds are more likely to do that, particularly high quality Treasuries, but no guarantees. If you mean by "stability" having money to spend at a certain point in the near futur...
by asif408
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What can go wrong in shorting Tilray, and can EU investors short it (and how?)
Replies: 29
Views: 1302

Re: What can go wrong in shorting Tilray, and can EU investors short it (and how?)

As others have pointed out, shorting is risky because you can be right about Tilray crashing in the longer run and lose all your money and more in the short run doing it. If you want to gamble, I'd take the other side and just buy a small amount, say equivalent to 0.1% of your overall portfolio, and...
by asif408
Tue Sep 18, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA Investment Options
Replies: 8
Views: 480

Re: HSA Investment Options

To me, any of these are good options: Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund(VTMGX) $13.70 Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund(VEMAX) $33.96 Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Shares(VFIAX) $269.36 Vanguard LIfeStrategy Conservative Growth Investor(VSCGX) $20.03 Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Gro...
by asif408
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying I-Bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 1308

Re: Buying I-Bonds

Thanks everyone, I likely should have been more clear. I often see commented that I-bonds can be held in ones Taxable account. I am trying to understand how they actually get into the taxable account. Is this performed at the time of purchase through Treasury Direct? Maybe I am misunderstanding thi...
by asif408
Mon Sep 17, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: VNBX - Vang. Total International Bond Index -- Dollar Strength?
Replies: 1
Views: 196

Re: VNBX - Vang. Total International Bond Index -- Dollar Strength?

Yes, it appears to me that the currency hedging is beneficial to BNDX in years when the dollar is rising and hurts when the dollar is falling. You can see that in 2017 BNDX underperformed BND, a year the dollar fell relative to other currencies. Since the dollar has been strong most other years, BND...
by asif408
Thu Sep 13, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?
Replies: 24
Views: 2824

Re: What do I do with my investments during a downturn/recession?

Because you own target date funds, you don't have to do anything during a downturn (or an upturn for that matter) other than to keep buying shares of the funds. The funds will rebalance themselves for you, as they are a mix of stocks and bonds. When there is a downturn your funds will be buying more...
by asif408
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5122

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

I have about 20% of my portfolio in funds invested in the stocks of commodities producers. I was persuaded by the writings of Bill Bernstein and GMO regarding commodities that if I was going to invest in commodities to avoid commodities futures and stick with commodity producing companies, as backw...
by asif408
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?
Replies: 46
Views: 5122

Re: Commodities have never been cheaper - time to buy?

I have about 20% of my portfolio in funds invested in the stocks of commodities producers. I was persuaded by the writings of Bill Bernstein and GMO regarding commodities that if I was going to invest in commodities to avoid commodities futures and stick with commodity producing companies, as backwa...
by asif408
Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA administrator options
Replies: 14
Views: 1532

Re: HSA administrator options

Anyone use Lively? $30/yr and $7 trades, brokerage with TD Ameritrade has pretty favorable reviews. Deciding btw them and HSA Authority, $36/yr and does have access to vanguard total market fund, but from reviews they seem less user friendly. Yes, I do, and I like them. $30/year, and that is drawn ...
by asif408
Fri Sep 07, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?
Replies: 35
Views: 2534

Re: Does market timing have to be perfect to be effective?

I admit I'm somewhat of a market timer. My reading and research, which I admit I've only been doing for about 5 years or so, has convinced me that most forms of market timing, especially the short ones, probably won't work over any long investment period. That would include things like shifting betw...
by asif408
Fri Sep 07, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard adding commission free index funds, better core replacements?
Replies: 8
Views: 1246

Re: Vanguard adding commission free index funds, better core replacements?

Based on the last 3 years performance: http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/etf/chart.action?t=VTI®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A7%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Afalse%2C%22mainSettingId%22%3A%22main%22%2C%22navSettingId%22%3A%22nav%22%2C%22benchmarkSettingId%22...
by asif408
Fri Sep 07, 2018 7:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good time to do value investing?
Replies: 37
Views: 2569

Re: Good time to do value investing?

I think it's a reasonable idea, you've just got to ask yourself how long would you do it before you would give up on it. Say, for example, you start value tilting today and in 3-4 years value is still lagging growth, would you stick with it or add more to it?
by asif408
Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: PICK etf
Replies: 1
Views: 212

Re: PICK etf

The question is why would you want to decrease it? If it is because of recent poor performance that is not a good reason. If it is because you no longer want extra exposure to the metals and mining industry that is fine.
by asif408
Wed Sep 05, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Bonds to boost returns?
Replies: 61
Views: 6528

Re: 100% Bonds to boost returns?

So I'll save you from the lecturers that will say "Nobody knows nuttin' " or "10 year forecasts are useless" and just say that in the link you provided most of the estimates for foreign stock returns were higher than US bond returns. So why not put some money in foreign stocks? It appears from your ...
by asif408
Wed Sep 05, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA card for spouse
Replies: 3
Views: 229

Re: HSA card for spouse

Thanks, 47Percent and Spirit Rider, it doesn't bother me as long as it's legal. In case your thinking that this is a sexist statement. My frame of reference was a women I worked with, who obtained an HSA debit card card for her husband. He seemed to think he could use it for anything at CVS includin...
by asif408
Wed Sep 05, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HSA card for spouse
Replies: 3
Views: 229

HSA card for spouse

I have a HDHP/HSA through work with my spouse included on the HDHP. We recently obtained a HSA card for her to use and it has her maiden name on it. My previous HSA card provider issued a card for her with my name on it. I was wondering if anyone knows if it matters what name is on the spouse's card...
by asif408
Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment Books
Replies: 47
Views: 3445

Re: Investment Books

Most of the books on my bookshelf are older, and good references from a historical perspective. I have about 5 I find myself re-reading from time to time. Those are A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Against the Gods, Four Pillars of Investing, Devil Take the Hindmost, and Global Investing. They were a...
by asif408
Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Construction: Total World Stock + TIPS or Treasuries
Replies: 40
Views: 3342

Re: Portfolio Construction: Total World Stock + TIPS or Treasuries

Thanks much for that info, gmaynardkrebs. Probably a rather unlikely occurrence to have inflation adjusted principle value below original face value (I would think), but would be a useful feature in a prolonged deflationary period. For some reason I thought this 'floor' was unique to I-bonds (and t...
by asif408
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing
Replies: 80
Views: 10293

Re: Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining Fund is changing

I was pondering if we should switch the VGPMX data series in the Simba backtesting spreadsheet to something else, possibly complemented back in history by a proper index. Point being to illustrate with happened with this 'Precious Metals and Mining' sector that was clamored to be a good diversifier...
by asif408
Tue Sep 04, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95097

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

If you are missing anything, it's probably that the correlation between US and non-US stocks has not been steadily marching upward. Correlations have indeed been higher over the past 10 years than they were, say, during the 1970s but they've actually been DECLINING since 2011 or so. https://i.imgur...
by asif408
Tue Sep 04, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95097

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

No denial here. But I am skeptical that my international equity allocation will be a savior to me during whatever time frame US stocks take a beating. Or, for that matter, that in another thirty years I will even be grateful to have held them, period. Hopefully I am wrong and will be pleasantly sur...
by asif408
Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?
Replies: 109
Views: 8320

Re: Is it time to go shorter in bonds ?

If I was in your shoes I would probably move a portion of my fixed income (whatever I needed in the next 5 years, say) into a money market, CDs, or T-bills/notes, and leave the remainder in VBTLX. As you say, the yield curve is pretty flat, and the difference between 1 month bills and 30 year bonds ...
by asif408
Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Views on VNQ / GLD with the market at highs
Replies: 6
Views: 583

Re: Views on VNQ / GLD with the market at highs

No criticism here if you are rebalancing into laggards. That's good Boglehead practice.
by asif408
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Equity Risk Premium Higher in Low-Interest Rate Currencies?
Replies: 8
Views: 540

Re: Is the Equity Risk Premium Higher in Low-Interest Rate Currencies?

That's also an interesting consideration. Therefore, all the threads discussing the angst regarding high US valuations would seem even more justified as the US have higher valuations and relatively higher interest rates than the rest of the developed markets (with EU and Japan still having negative...
by asif408
Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95097

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

http://shiller.barclays.com/SM/12/en/indices/static/historic-ratios.app Really cool link. Thanks for sharing. Agreed; that's very interesting. According to this, my home market of Sweden briefly reached Japanese levels of CAPE, at over 79 in February 2000. I wasn't investing back then, but still, I...
by asif408
Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 4770

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

So to be clear, you're saying that forward P/E ratios are worthless (i.e. a completely opaque windshield in your analogy)? No, what I'm saying is that whether you use forward or trainings earnings, neither one can actually see the future. Alex implies with his analogy that you can actually see futu...